Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. It is time for Week seven. We can wait no longer. We have NFL games to get back to this weekend, and here to break them all down for us. Of course, as always, the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman joins me and today helping us break down the entire Week seven slater, or at least our favorite games of it, none other than Ben Solac of The Ringer. Ben, thank you so much for joining us.
How are you doing today? Wow? I appreciate charm me falls.
We appreciate you you coming on as well and sharing some time and knowledge with us here because we have some great games to get to. This is a really interesting slate in my opinion, is there so many games. It doesn't feel as yucky as last week slate did, where you were kind of holding your nose to make some of these bets like Panthers plus ten and a half, etc. But here we've got some decent spreads. We've got some pretty evenly matched games too to talk about. We're gonna
start that off with you, Matt. The Ravens are six and a half points favorites versus the Browns in this divisional matchup here, and that number still six and a half here, it was six. It's been floating around in that six to six and a half range. Hasn't gone to seven all week. But are you going with the Browns or are you taking the Ravens and laying the points at home?
Very much on the Ravens at this point, Kevin Stefanski is two and eleven against the spread in division I mean horrible against people who know him, and then specifically against John Harbaugh. Zero to four against the spread for Kevin Stefanski, So the historical trends don't look good for him there, and I mean really it comes down for me this Ravens rush offense against the Browns run defense.
The Ravens have a top three run offense in rush EPOA, EPOA, rush DVOA, and the Browns are bottom three in both of those metrics. And in our Fantasy pros you know, power rankings. The Ravens, especially now they have left tackled Ronnie Stanley healthy, they have been the eighth best offensive line and we have the Browns with the eighth word defensive line. Number one running back JK. Dobbins is uncertain, but I really don't think that matters all that much.
Like backup running back Kenyan Drake looked pretty good last week. They have Justice Hill returning, so I think they will be fine in the backfield. And then, of course, like Lamar Jackson is the ultimate cheat code as the running quarterback.
So the Ravens bat against the run, I mean, sorry, the Browns bad against the run anyway, and then you know they're significantly injured on that side of the ball to no Chase Wino, which Steven Weatherly, no Anthony Walker, Jadevian Clowney might be out, Dion Jones he might be able to return for this game, but maybe not, and if he does, it's still his first game within a new defense, so I don't think it looks good for them.
And if a home team can control the clock with the ground game, it has the ability to pile on the points. So I think that's what the Ravens are gonna do.
I'm completely with you on this one, but Ben, what do you think here? Any dissension from that's take?
No?
I like Ravens.
I'm worried about mar Andrews not practicing. He missed the second straight practice this week, and I think the Ravens are already really fragile build in terms of weapons generally no JK. Dobbins probably this week, and then know Andrews and without Rashawn Bateman, it's like, Okay, this is just a very bad offense in terms of the non Lamark pieces. But the proof of the put ins in the een
with the running game. And yeah, the Browns rush defense is not just the worst in the league, but EPA for play it's twice as bad as the thirtieth defense. So it's like multiple standard deviations worse than your average run defense in the league. And so the Ravens scheme should make this happen. And you also like, I think the Ravens. If you like the Ravens, you like them on the line now because they tend to be really good through the first three quarters. Then get things away late.
If you like the Browns, wait, the Raves are gonna get a lead and then just hit it live and then you can kind of catch a better number when the Ravens inevitably failed or in the fourth quarter.
Yeah, and I'm a little bit hopeful that Rashaan Bateman will play in this game, because he did practice on a limited basis on Wednesday, so better than the dnps that we had last week. So you know, continue to monitor him throughout the week because at least if Mark Andrews is out, if Bateman is in, that helps at least, you know, kind of calm the nerves.
Yeah, I'm hopeful for Bateman to play as well. I think he will. If he's already practicing. I think they're gonna, you know, nudge him a little bit and say, hey, can you give it a go, especially if Mark's banged up. This could be a really big game for him if he comes back for it. But another really big game on the docket this week, the Jets and the Broncos here and kuys. I cannot believe it. Four and two
are the New York Jets right now. If they win this game, I'm officially on the bandwagon of this team can make the playoffs. You look at that second half schedule. All they need to do is pick off one of the next three, because they got the Broncos, then the Patriots, and then the Bills. If they can pick this game off, you can go into your bye week at five and three, come back out on the other side with an easy second half. Schedule. The Bills are the only team with
a winning record on it, I think right now. But this is also the spot now people are starting to say the same thing, and this is where the Jets like to drink the kool aid and then come out with just an absolutely abysmal performance against a team that they should be beating. And I feel like that's the Broncos right now. This game open two and a half or three, depending on your shot. But then Monday Night happened and the Broncos have been bet all the way
down to just a one point favorite. Right now, then where are you going in this one? Is it Broncos country? Let's ride?
No, it never has been, inever will be. So I like the Jets in this one. I liked him at two, I still like him at one. I think that this is I may just be about to pick them, especially with the uncertainty of quarterback, which I.
Jokingly said of the pre show. I definitely like it if Russ is playing.
I'm not sure I like it if the backup's playing. But it's a little bit true if if Brett Rippin plays this game. Because Russ is questionable coming in, there's a chance that this offense looks better because Russ has been the major limiting factor in this offense.
There's no choice about them.
There's other problems, but Russ is if you're ranking the factors, Russ has been number one.
And so you do you know, like.
You're like, all right, I get to fade a backup quarterback. Oh maybe not like it's a weird situation for Denver. But what the Jets do that I like is they run the football extremely well. They've had a carousel on the offensive line yet still somehow scraped together in a good unit.
The third and rush.
ePaper player over the last three weeks, Reese Hall was like all that in a bag of chips.
And they have this two running back set with Mike. Part of it works really well for them.
It's tough to defend because multiple guys who can take a handoff, you can go in jet motion. They're on the reverses, they're on the gadget plays. It's a nice little offense that Mike Belfore has going. And then they have the weapons to win the passing game if they need to. They haven't really used Zach Wilson for the last couple weeks, and that's probably better for where Zach
is in his development. But they have Garrett Wilson, and they have Elijah Moore assuming he's happy and wants to play football.
They have Corey Davis. They can win on their one on one.
So this offense has a formula that works that I tend to trust enough getting points against the Denver team that to me isn't going to score more than like sixteen seventeen. Denver defense really really really good. So if you're missing how there it is. If you're missing this game, you're missing it on I think like defensive stops on turnovers on short fields for the Broncos because this Jets defensive line, it's gonna read some havoc.
No matter who's playing quarterback back there. So I like it a plus money. It's a weird one though, So if you want to stay.
Away and I'm playing you, I'm finally in. I bet them last week against the Packers beas that was more so a take on the Packers just last couple.
Of weeks w on seven point lines. Very beautiful.
Yeah, you can't keep giving that to us. I'm gonna keep taking it. But now this one, this is that spot where I'm like Oh, they're gonna come out and break my heart now. But no, I'm believing I'm ready to get hurt again by this team. Matt, what about you? Are you riding with the Jets or are you going with Russell Wilson and the Broncos.
Sadly, very sadly, I bet the Broncos on the look Ahead. Oh no, I hate myself. I just absolutely hate myself. I for like, and now I saw that that commercial, the second commercial with the Danger Witch, and I just can't for the rest of the year. I am not betting on Russell Wilson. I'm just I'm totally done, and I might flip where I just start betting against him, uh, depending on the setup. But this defense with the Jets, I'm really impressed with them. You know, I think they've
got two really good cover corners. Sauce Gardner has looked as good as we've seen any quarterback, like shades of like Marshawn Lattimore's rookie season, and honestly maybe even better than that, Like he has been amazing. So I'm impressed with the defense. And it has been said like that running game has really gotten going for the Jets, whose offensive line woes, they've managed to bandage up pretty nicely. So for me, if I hadn't bet, it would probably be a stay away. But yeah, I mean I'm not.
I'm very much not on the Broncos at this point.
You know, talking about that offensive line real quick, Elijah Vera Tucker is having one of the best seasons that we've seen out of alignment in a long time. Like that, they have moved that guy for as much of the injury woes as Mackay Beckton has had, they have been able to move Vera Tucker. Both guard spots now play right tackle. He's playing everywhere on this line. It's insane.
It's like Larry Allen, like back in the day with the Cowboys, which of course I'm gonna bring it back to the Cowboys, the nineties Cowboys with an offensive line, but like I mean, Larry Allen was like the dude who could play all over that offensive line, and like Elijah Vera Tucker, like it feels like he's got that capability. Like I know he's in theory a guard, but I think he actually has some like real tackle potential.
Well, the Jets need all the help that they can get right now. As the line still gets healthy and by the way, the danger Witch commercial. Have you seen the video of it where someone put Russ and his audio over the Joker in the scene where he crashes the party in the dark night. It fits way too perfectly.
I have I can't remember.
It's really unsettling because you're like, oh, this, this fits like he could have been the Joker in this movie easily. That's sad, but hey, you know, good news for the Broncos. At least it's not like you're tied up to a massive contract and blew a tremendous amount of draft capital to bring him in, so you're you're able to move on without much pain there. As we move on to the next game on the slate here, speaking of your Cowboys, Matt, the Lions come to town and this poor Lions team, man,
they can't catch a break. One of the best offenses in football right now. The defense is terrible. They're getting seven here versus the Cowboys and they still have a tremendously awful record.
Yeah, I mean, Tom, you know, it was the bane of my existence last year to bet against my Cowboys, like I wouldn't be able to celebrate them winning because I would just be losing money as it was happening. But I'm going back to it. I'm betting against the Cowboys in the spot, and it's I mean, I'm impressed with the Lions, even though they are losing games and
their defense has been absolutely horrible. On offense, they've been good and you know, Dan Campbell five and one against the spread versus teams with winning records at the time of the game, and you know, just like cover heroes, the Lions have been in the Dan Campbell era. So I do like them in this spot. I do like the way they match up. I like that they're coming off of the buy so they've had time to prepare, and I think it's for me this offensive line against
the Cowboys defensive line. Like, Okay, last year, I thought the Cowboys defense was fraudulent. They had a really unstable league high twenty six interceptions like that was clearly not something that could be sustained year over year, and they allowed the twelfth most yards per play. I thought that's
the offense, sorry, the defense that they really were. But I mean this year they've been They've been legitimate, right, like, not as opportunistic, but number one in sacks, number two in quarterback hits, number three in yards per play allowed, Like they've got a really strong group of edge rushers, Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Doran's armstrong, Dante Fowler, like Faler is actually like he was a bus back in the day now he actually on this defensive line is looking really good.
The Cowboys number one and adjusted sack rate. But that Lions offensive line, if it's not the best in the league, I think it's top three. I personally have it ranked as the number one offensive line. Like they are number one in adjusted ZACH rate. They are doing a phenomenal job of protecting Jared Goff to where he has actually
looked like a competent quarterback once again this year. And then in terms of the running game, like they've got it their top five in rush EPA, rush DVOA, adjusted lineyards, and the Cowboys are outside of the top ten and defensively in all of those metrics. So I think it's a game where the Lions are going to be able
to run the ball against the Cowboys. They're going to be able to protect Jared Goff or protect him more than the typical offensive line has been able to do when facing the Cowboys, and I think that means seven points is too much.
Yeah, this offense feels like they can move the football. As for the Lions, it's the defense that's giving you problems. And also, Dak Prescott might be back for this Ben, what do you think about it?
Yeah, Prescott's playing. I think seven is the correct line. And then Prescott said today that he's going to start, And usually when players say they're going to start, like, all right, that's probably true.
There's a chance that's not, but the starting quarterback is all right.
The thing for me is if I like Lions plus seven, which I do. I implied like the over, and it's been a weirdier for overs.
It's been tough as a man who likes the bet overs.
I understand forty and a half is one of the bigger numbers are going to see on the lines this week. But if this game stays within seven, it's because the Lions offense is able to keep pace. We expect this defense to give up points no matter what, right, And
so I do like Lions plus seven. I like being able to build it into the over as well, and see if I can, like teaze down the line and get a little bit more space in that just because Detroit's offense can be much more volatile than it appears because.
Of how often they go for it on fourth down, right.
So they're putting out yards or play, they're putting out yards per drive.
It look like they're going to cover.
And then in terms of they have like no points against the Patriots because they over five on fourth downs, right, So that aggression makes them cover heroes, like Matt was saying, but sometimes it can kill you. And so if we're expecting that Lion's offense to keep it close, and I think we're looking at like a fifty plus point total.
Both these teams can run it well, but they run it with a good pace of play and the Gopher explosives to go over play action pass, so you're not gonna see the time run off the clock too quickly.
I like the Lions. I also like the over if you if you're on the Lions side.
I think that makes a lot. I mean, you have a fantastic offense and an atrocious defense. That's a recipe for overs right there, especially in a game like this. Your biggest hope is that the Cowboys defense can't totally stifle the Lions and they get you at least a little bit towards that over. But I think that's pretty reasonable.
Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what this offense look like looks like with Dak back because they did so many good, responsible, smart offensive team building things.
With rush, early down, play action, you're going to rot to your backs.
When they play Prescott, they tend to be like, go be an adult, and they don't do any of this helpful.
Stuff, and it would be frustrating if that's the case. Again.
Yeah, the play calling definitely takes a step back there. And speaking of teams taking a step back, the Chicago Bears have taken a step back into about nineteen forty three when it comes to the way that they play offense this season. They're going up against the Patriots this week on Monday Night because we just can't get enough of these great primetime matchups.
Here.
The total in this game, Ben is thirty nine and a half. Right now, that's so astronomically low. You can't really bet the under. Are you looking at the over?
I'm betting the under. No, I'm absolutely betting out there.
Bill Belichick spent about seven minutes during its press conference talking about how good the Bears are, which.
Bill Belichick's to kiss of death.
When Bill Belichick does that, it means you're you're going to total eighty yards. It means you're gonna have a horrible, horrible day. Bill's really good at talking positively about teams that he is confident he is a beat on. And the thing about the Bears, and the Bears are so siloed on offense. This Belichick's better than anybody else for as long as he's been a coach. You're taking away with you do best. And the Bears are about two
pitches right. The Bears have our split zone outside of on running game, our boot action off of it all, they can't drop back, they can't run anything else right, and they have no variety.
In the running game. They have to live in that world.
So yeah, Justin Field's gonna get one a couple scrambles, He's.
Gonna rip off a couple of a couple of big chunks on third downs.
But you guys, a great athlete other than that, Like, this isn't gonna be like the Vikings game where the Bears walk out in the second in the second half, and they were like, you know, yeah, run our stuff, and all of a sudden they put twenty points on the board. Because the Vikings just have simple defense. No Belichick takes way what you do well. So I think the Bears are gonna have a really tough time.
Moving the ball on offense.
And then when the Patriots have the ball, they're second in the league right now in terms of pace per play on the slow side. The Titans are the slowest in terms of the second suscember play, and then the Patriots.
Are right there with Bailey Zappi at quarterback.
They've been more under centered, they've been more run oriented, and then they go to their play ash and pass. The only way they get explosives if it is if it's your oars after the catch, And this Matt Eberflutz defense is all about.
Play drop zone, play on top of guys, don't wait guys back for the.
Catch, hustle up, rally up, and tackle. So you're gonna see the Patriots struggle to get explosives. They're gonna run, they're gonna eat a ton o'clock, and I think they're gonna get on top of the Bears. And the Bears are gonna struggle score. So do I love betting a total under when it starts with a three? No?
Do I see a way that either one of these teams gets over twenty?
No?
I'm in on a nice prime time thirteen to sixteen stinker and I'm looking.
Forward to it.
Oh that's a thousand percent. What's about to happen in this game? You just know, because for some reason we were insistent upon putting the absolute trash of the NFL in prime time here, Matt, do you have any different dissenting opinion on that one?
I mean, I have this projected pretty close to the total. It's slightly to the over, but like I promise you, I'm not betting the over in this spot. I'm probably staying away from the total. But you know what been said there. I think the number you gave was like
sixteen to thirteen. Like that does make me think, Like it's not that I want to bet on the Bears, right, but I do think that if you are to bet on the side, eight points is a lot in exactly, yeah, and a game with a low total and you know, backup quarterback running oriented teams, you know, like eight, I am on, I'm on the Bears in that spot.
I mean, it makes sense in order for I don't like laying a ton of points with a team I'm not confident in scoring, and I'm really not confident in the Patriots getting the eight points they need to cover in this game. This could end six nothing pretty easily here. That's the only dilemma that I'd have. It's the same reason why I didn't like the Packers when they were laying like the ten and a half numbers, because you just can't trust the offense. So I definitely see where
you're going here. This is a stay away from me until Monday night, when I bet into the closing line like an idiot, because I just want to have some reasonally care about this game. But I'll bet the under in that one so I don't have to root for these terrible offenses. But Matt, the Giants and the Jaguars. Speaking of terrible, yeah, really, for the longest time, that's what these two teams were. And yet all of a sudden,
here we are. The Jags. Yeah, they've slid a couple of weeks now after that hot start, But the Giants, they seem legit. Five and one here they're getting three points they head down to Jacksonville. Are you going with Big Blue?
Yeah?
I was.
By the way, now the official name of Matt Dable of Brian Dable.
Yeah, it's that's fair well earned, by the way. Yeah, I have a little bit of a sickness whenever Daniel Jones is a road underdog, I bet on him. You know, that's just it's something, it's something that I do. He's thirteen and six against the spread on the road, twenty one and thirteen as an underdog, twelve and four against the spread as a road underdog. There's just like something
about the style of play. I don't know. I haven't been able to like identify why it is that he does well in the spot, but historically he has done well, and I like the matchup, So you're not gonna need to twist my arm too much for betting into this. It's Saquon Barkley against the Jags rush defense. That's when it comes out to, like, we all know what the Giants want to do in this game. They want to run the ball, and they run more than they pass
a fifty two percent rush rate. You know, it's hard to do that in today's NFL, But that's what you do when you have Daniel Jones a quarterback and squ as your running back. He leads the league with one hundred and nineteen carries. And I think this backfield, you know, as reliant as it is on Barkley, like it's a top three backfield because he's just playing at an elite level right now. And I think he has a significant edge over the Jags defensive line in the line backing unit.
And as mediocre as the Giants have been on offense, you know, like number eighteen in success rate, number twenty one in yards per play, they've actually been pretty good running the ball. They're number nine in rush EPA per play in their run offense. The Jags run defense has just been mediocre, number seventeen in rush EPA. So I see this as leaning towards the Giants and how they
want to play the game. And Barkley, he has a shoulder injury, but he practiced on Wednesday, So he's playing Andrew Thomas and with an elbow injury, but he practiced. He's playing, same with John Feliciano. So those guys are dealing with injuries, but they're all gonna play. And if we look at the quarterbacks in this game, Like, Okay, Daniel Jones, I just I don't think he's that good. That said, is there really, at this stage of their careers that much of a difference between Daniel Jones and
Trevor Lawrence? Like I know that there is, but like, statistically there's really not. Like they are right next to each other. They're eleven and twelve and composite EPA and completion percentage over expectation their numbers thirteen and fourteen in ESPN QBR. Like they're comparable enough within the confines of what they're supposed to do within their offenses. And I don't see the Jags as having a home field advantage of three points. I think these two teams are pretty even.
So I'm going with the Giants because I think Barkley is going to be able to run effectively enough to give them a good chance to cover Ben.
Any thoughts here, Yeah, I.
Love it if I know fully thought. Dacossi isn't point bully thought. Kossi is the nose for the Jaguars. He is out starting at the Eagles game, where I think I can cuss, and then the moment he went out Eagles started running the ball with im community and then they played Houston the next week. He's out Texans are running the football then to get the Colts to the Colstone count because they were playing Deon Jackson and their
tire lions terrible. They have to throw the ball fifty eight times, but find a posse's he only knows they got in that front and Mike Caldos the DC there, he came from Tampa. When they go run defense, they need to nose. They need a vitavea and they didn't have it over the last few weeks. They're hoping to get fought to Possi back for this game. I'm not
sure they do if they don't. I love the spot for Barkleys rushing totals, and I like the spot for the Giants because that's that's the one matchup they have against the Jags. It's a weird line.
See a five to one team against the two and four team, and the two and four team is favorite.
Dvoa had a great line where the Giants have been trailing more in terms of game cloth than any team is a winning record, and the Jaguars have been winning more in terms of game clock than any team of a losing record, so it's a topsy turvy, upside down start of the game.
But if there's no fun of COSSE, I do.
Like that Giant side in terms of the rushing totals overall, though, I took Daniel Jones rushing yards when it opened.
I took a big and I expected to hit it thirty four and a half.
Jones always runs, but especially runs when you get mancard, especially once when you get blitz.
That's what these Jag Wars want to do. They're above average and blitz rate.
The they're heavy man coverage rate, and when you get that sort of a look, it gives the quarterback lanes to escape and get a field, and so I like the I like the running offense for the Giants in this game a lot. I wouldn't feel I don't feel too strong about Giants plus three, but there's no flaught to COOSTI I think it's the right side.
Demetrius Harvey on Twitter. He's a reporter Jags reporter for Jacks dot Com. He says head coach Doug Peterson says that fully fought a Cosi day to day in quotes, but he'll be at practice today which was yesterday and he was hopeful to have him back this week. And also here an interesting stat Jags winning percentage when Photocosi plays a whole game zero point six sixty seven. His winning percentage when they're winning percentage when he doesn't zero.
So I imagine he actually plays in this game because he did get a limited practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
That's that's typically a good sign there, guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper. Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions of players. You probably already have a fantasy league on there. My friends and I changed over this year and I absolutely love it. It's a game changing product unlike anything else in the industry, and now you can win on Sleeper by
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some money. Use the promo code Betting Pro when you sign up for a Sleeper account today, and Sleeper will automatically credit your account one hundred dollars to get you started. In terms of conditions apply see Sleeper dot com forty tills. So now moving on here to the next game that you've got up been the Seahawks and the Chargers, and this is another one. You got some good offenses here, and the Chargers defense has been especially disappointing for me
so far this season. I don't feel like they're living up to what they were supposed to be. But then again, this entire Chargers unit not really doing that right now? What are you thinking in this game?
Yeah, And that's the thing is is I preseason Chargers pass defense begainst the Seahawks passing offense. Holy smokes, And now we've seen the Seahawks passing offense not just succeed.
But be relatively batch up proof.
Obviously not the strongest game that they're coming offense the Cardinals, but they never move the football.
It's just the inability to get into the end zone. We just worries.
So I you're betting a total at at fifty and a half, I do like the over you're getting below that key number of fifty one.
No j C.
Jackson.
The Chargers are changing and they're kind of the NFP more right now. On the defense side of the ball. Certainly know Joey Bosa will bring pressure to those rookie tackles have been playing. So all still got it with Kolil Mack. But this Chargers defense to me is a little bit Swiss Cheez. There's some spots in it that we didn't expect there to be, Certainly in the outside receiver game, which is where it d came back.
Cap and Tyl Lockett are going to be at their strongest.
On the other side of the ball, the teams that score against the Seahawks are the teams that can run, and we obviously you know, usually trust that Cardinals runing game, but that Cardinals running game is very like college inspired. When teams get heavy with multiple tight ends on the field, they get under center and they run the ball. In terms of pro styles, they tend to have success against the Seahawks rushing defense. That wasn't the Chargers to start
the year, but recently they've been a lot better. They're getting the ball to Austin Academy more. They're not screwing around as much as like the full back run wide zone and pretend with the San.
Francisco forty nine ers thing. They're running more power.
They're actually pulling guys, which is what they're suited to do. So since V three they've been ninth and rush EPA for play on offense, which we would not have expected given how they looked in the start of the season. They were gone awful. They're taking away to Sony reps, have got a little bit better on the offensive line.
They're calling better plays, and they're running the ball better, so they're gonna be able to stay ahead of the sticks, not get stuck in the third and lungs that they can't deal with right now, and that's when I think allow them to push the ball down the field.
So I like fifty and a half as a total.
I think you can get over that with two offenses that can be aggressive of throwing the football downfield when they get their shots and they're one on ones. They're big receivers on the outside, but are both also gonna be able to run the football and sustain long drives.
Report Yeah, Ben, I have I have a follow up question on this. So, looking at the total in the look ahead market, it was fifty three and a half, which is right where I have it projected right now. I have it at fifty three point three. So I saw that number, I'm like, yes, I'm a genius. Nailed like nailed it where it should be the right, you know.
And then it opens the early line on Sunday night is fifty two, and then it dropped to fifty one, and then now it's fifty and a half, and I'm like, okay, like you know, there's some value here on the other side. I'm like, you know what, Like the market is telling me something that my like original line might be wrong, you know, like it's on my instinct, Like I'm with you, like everything you said, I agree with my projection has
it there. I think there's value to the over. The unders have been hitting more in this season, you know, and it's a high total. So like, how do you reconcile the perspective like the game matchup and seeing what's happening on the field with what we've seen in the market since last week.
Yeah, So for me coming from this, like I was a football writer, like at an analysis before I ever really got into betting, So I never ever came from a modeling perspective. So a lot of the times when I'm against line movement, it's typically because there's something I particularly like in the matchup, right where I'm like, all right, like you know, metrics and models.
The game might not be catching X, Y and Z.
But when I watch the Seahawks offense, when I watch the Chargers defense, whatever it is, I feel like this is going to work well for them. And that's where I'm at with this Chargers running game against what you're gonna get from the Seahawks run defense. The Seahawks defense has been really, really rough to start the year, and then they have this game against the Cardinals, usually one of the highest powered offenses. They're generating turnovers. They changed
their front round a little bit. They were running other fronts to start the season. They put out different stuff against the Cardinals and they held them down. It's like, all right, maybe the Seahws are going to be a little bit more of a low scoring, low total team. But when you get down to brass tacks, I think that the Chargers are better across the board in terms
of offensive personnel. And I don't think the Seahawks are going to keep the changes they ran against the Cardinals against a non divisional opponent, because oftentimes you're building the spoke game plans for teams are going to see twice. You don't do that as much for teams they kind of are just on your schedule in a weekly basis. So I want to be surprised to the Seahawks go back to the same old fronts they were running, you know, go back to the same old leaky run defense that
lets the Charges stay ahead of the six. And the whole Chargers issue on offense is when they get behind the sticks because they don't push the ball down the field. They only run routes to the six. They drives film watchers nuts this Joven Barney offense. So if they can run the ball well, the offense is going to work. It's when they fall behind the six then they started losing points and they get put in these four down positions.
I like the Chargers rush offense a lot of a lot of Eckler overs, and that's what gives me a look.
At the total of this game.
I think that makes a ton of sense to me. I like the sound of it as well. But Matt, you know, and I don't really like the sound of link seven points on the road. Here are you gonna do that with the Dolphins versus the quarterback to be determined? Steelers? Where are you going here? Steelers coming off that big win?
Dolphins are at home?
Right?
Correct me if I if I'm wrong here, If wrong, I would.
Be that would be me wrong. For some reason, I have I have Dolphins at Steelers on my rundown.
Here, Dolphins Dolphins at home. Yeah, seven is the number. And I do like them in the spot like I feel, And I would like to get Ben's thoughts on this, because, like Ben is, as you said, like football rider much more knowledgeable about like the the intricacies of the schemes, right, it's all may Yeah, Well, I assure you you're more
knowledgeable than I am. But you know, I'd like to get your thoughts on on Tua in this spot because I think what we've seen out of Tua is real this season, and I think if that is the case, this line is really wrong. Like I don't want to say where I had it projected, kind of given the assumptions that I had of like, Okay, this is the difference between Tua and the backup quarterbacks that we've seen,
because it is was way higher than minus seven. So there's a very good chance that I'm wrong, But I think Tua is I think he's been underappreciated. So he's coming back, right, He's been cleared, he's practicing fully. Man. The Dolphins, they've had a top ten pass offense this year, and that was with Bridgewater and Skyler Thompson playing most of the past three weeks.
Uh.
And it's nothing against Bridgewater and Thompson, but they are not Tua, who is number one this year in ESPN, QBR number one and adjusted yards per attempt and number two and EPA and completion percentage over expectation. Now, granted that happened in only like three three and some change, but you know, just do the head to head comparison
between Tua and Teddy Bridgewater and Skyler Thompson. Sixty nine point six percent completion rate for him, fifty nine point four percent completion rate for those guys, nine point two adjusted yards per attempt for Teddy six point two, nine point two to six point two. That is a massive
gap in adjusted yards per attempt. A seven percent touchdown rate for Tua two point eight percent touchdown rate for Bridgewater and Thompson two point six percent, interception rate, three point eight percent interception rate, and then the sack rate five percent, sack rate for for Tua seven point eight percent. So I think there's a pretty big difference between Tua
and the guys who are backing him up. And like, sure, you can say what we've seen out of Tua this year has more to do with the scheme, more to do with the head coach, Mike McDaniel, and more to do with the playmakers around him than with any innate talent he has. Well, Like, that's fine, if that's the perspective that you have, but like we've still seen him do well versus other guys not do well within that system.
And I'll just say, like, given everything we know about Tua up to this point, I think we should take his outperformance this year at something close to face value. He was the number one quarterback in his recruitment class. He had a come from behind off the bench championship at Alabama against Georgia as a true freshman. He was
one of the best college quarterbacks we've ever seen. He was selected number five overall, and he fell that far only because of a catastrophic and career threatening hip injury, right, and then he had I would say understandably an uneven adjustment period to the NFL in his first two seasons as he recovered from that injury and navigated offensive coordinator incompetence and rollover in Miami.
At least three of coordinator approach last year.
No, No, imagine having more offensive coordinators than number of seasons you've been in the league. That's that's nearly unfathomable. So, like, based on all of that information, I think it's fair to say what we've seen out of Tua, like he's probably not the best quarterback in the league, but like the level that he has played at is something that is like within the realm of reality for what we
should expect for him moving forward. The Dolphins offense twenty seven point seven points per game in weeks one through three, sixteen points per game in weeks four through six, like three to zero against the spread with Tua zero and three and against the spread in the most three recent recent weeks. So like, I'm just I am very much on the idea that Tua matters more to the spread than what has been baked into the spread at this point.
So I think seven is too low. And then last week the Steelers they were without four starters and secondary Even if all of those guys return this week, they're still not going to be at full health at full health. And of course, you know you have all pred all pro edge rusher to j Watt and you know Larry Ogunjobi on the defensive line who also is uncertain in
his health. So I don't know, I know, seven is a lot, but man, I just I think that this is a line that is is too low relative to what we saw out of Tua in this offense in weeks one through three.
Yeah, So I was surprised to say Dolphins minus even right. I thought it would be bigger.
As a man who bet Bucks minus a very heavily, and that bet Bucks live lines also heavily.
I'm not loving big.
Spreads against the Steelers right now, but I was surprised to see the size of that line. There's one point five things that give me pause. The figure point about Tua and what he brings to the schemers, what scheme the scheme brings in is extremely well taken. You said, you know, maybe this is more about the scheme than it has any particular talent than Tua has. That's half true, right, Like this is a really really good offense.
Mike Daniel's a great designer. Like this is you know, this is the offense, Gujore, This is what people are running.
But if you want to run a yack oriented offense, you've got to have a really accurate quarterback. And for all of his limits arm strength wise, height wise, the ability to play out of structure, especially post hip injury, all of which have been limiting factors for Tua, he throws an extremely accurate football. Ball placement is so important in yak offense. Is if you hit a guy out of stride, still catchable, but it's on the wrong shoulders.
Out of stride.
He's tackled for a twelve yard game, you hit him in stride, especially when it's Jalen Wattle speed or Tyree Hill speed. We saw that one of question against Patriots gone, that's ball placement. That's why that play worked. And other quarterbacks who made this offense successful haven't been that accurate, like Jimmy is not that accurate. Kirk is not that pinpoint accurate. So Tool brings that and that helps the offense.
What was really impressive about this offense was we thought last year when they're running all the RPO stuff, you were like, yeah, this is what you do with an accurate week arm quarterback. You run the RPO sow he throws the tight windows and then whatever they got him going deep down the field. They're not just going the ARPBEO stuff. They're runing play action boots stuff, keep guys to protect. And then two is being accurate fifteen yards,
twenty yards, twenty five yards. And then certainly when he goes to the downhill stuff, it's not super accurate, but that fifteen to twenty yard range throw him with a lot of accuracy. That's yeah, with fifteen yards of a dot, that's unbelievable. Nobody else gets that in league, and they don't get it with waddle and hill speed. It's great
the exchange the cost. And this is what worries me for the Steelers game is if you're going to run the deep play action stuff instead of the RBO stuff, two has.
To hold the ball.
Two has to wait in the pocket, and as we've seen through three weeks, two has to get hit. And the number one thing to ask about the Dolphins right now is how comfortable are they going to be running the offense they ran with two of the first three weeks of the season, given the Concussionci's taken.
How willing are they going to be to subject him to hits? Because the way they play.
Offense assumes their quarterback is going to be able to think shots. He has to hold onto the ball for a while. And they have a bad offensive line.
They try to add guys to pass protection, but there's alway somebody who's going to lead through.
That's the nature of this offense. So that's the one thing that worries made. The point five is three weeks awesome. It's a small sample and usually about four weeks is where I say, okay, if this can last more than four weeks, I believe in the in the fact that the film has been seen by defense coordinators and they still haven't answered it. I've only got three weeks and
two of film, so I'm curious to see. Like Mike Tomlin tends to be really, really good in terms of bespoke game plans, game plans to stop one certain offense.
Very interested to see what this looks like. So I pause. I'm not taking dove with mine seven right now, but it is an.
Island game, and so you may find me tention in allow you a couple of minutes before kickoff.
The big question for me is the hits.
If they're not willing to let it get hit the way they were a month ago, they can't win the offense they were running a month ago.
That's what's this in jenery.
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for an account with bet mgm. So get in on the action today, guys, enjoy the football season, and let's cash some tickets together. Now back to the show. Now, how about here the Falcons going up against the Bengals. The Bengals obviously that slow start to the season, but all of a sudden they've been very much back in gear. Here. Meanwhile, the Falcons the only undefeated team against the spread so far this season. And it's really because they keep giving
us these touchdown or greater spreads. And it's six and a half in this game here. I as bad as this offense looks, sometimes I can still trust them to cover these numbers.
Why yeah, So that's the thing is.
Like, offense isn't pretty in terms of like efficiency and passing or whatever, but this is a good, cool offense. The way the Falcons run offense is a way that very few, if any teams weren't even a remotely amalagains offense. You're not getting two full backs on the field, you know, running pistol diamonds, you know readoption.
Nobody else is doing this.
I mean that means that it forces you to prepare on a week, right forced you prepare in a week for something you haven't really prepped for, even like the Bengals being in the division with the Ravens and kind of sometimes seeing similar stuff still isn't that's analogous because the Ravens are run as downhill, as physical.
Actually as big a backs as what the Falcons are doing.
And this Bengals run defense has been suspect since losing DJ Reader.
Their nose tackle into world of their run defense.
They've been bottom ten and rushipa per play allowed since losing Reader.
And also they now have perhaps lost Logan Wilson.
They've been a linebacker who they're kind of like saying is day to day, but also sustained a pretty major injury.
If you played in would be nuts.
That's the core of your run defense right there. And if the Falcons beat you, they beat you. Run on the football. This is a very very effective running game to third in the league right now in like Tobe rushing yards. They're second of the last three weeks in Rushia paper play like, this is a trustworthy group. So there's that big mismatch there that, to me, lets this thing hang within a touchdown, less this thing hang within a score.
The other.
Question mark that I have about the Bengals that really brings me into this game is that the Bengals are trying to fix this offense. Right, they kind of had this this issue to go in her center.
They run, it doesn't work, and they go shotgun and they get too high and whatever, and they're trying to run this RPO.
Game, and that's good. It's it's it's an okay solution. It's not perfect.
It's hard to run an RPO against zone blitz defenses because zone blitz defense has changed changed the picture on your post snap, like all right, I'm gonna read this one guy and all of a sudden, that guy's not there anymore. That's what DMPs does. This is a confusion
based defense who's hard to run the RPO against. So if they try to go RPO, you can see turnovers, you can see mishandled snaps, you can see sacks in the backfield, I think this Bengals offense runs into some issues against lay the Falcons play, especially if Ajterrell is available to a race to Mark Chase, because Trell is that talented.
I like the Falcons plus this point five, Give me Terrell healthy and I'll take it.
Are you following it? Are you falling bent on this one? Matt?
Uh?
Yeah, I have I have this at five point five, So yeah, it's six and a half. I do think that there's value going through six, which isn't like a huge key number, but in today's NFL, especially with lower totals, is it's key enough. So yeah, I do think that there's value in Alta.
Now, one more game that I want to ask you guys about.
Ben.
It's on that board there behind you, Chiefs and forty nine ers here the Chiefs laying two and a half. I got it when it was three because I thought that this number would go the opposite way, so the market I missed out on the market here. But what are you thinking in terms of this game? Because I'm seeing people on Twitter. I get the Vegas values the Niners. I am very low on the Niners, and I feel like this is one of those games that the Chiefs
just role. I'm looking at some alternate spreads in this one.
Yeah. I love the Niners and the Niners are a great team. I love why they play football. I don't think I could I could list all of the names they have on the Andrew Report on one breath like that.
That's where we're at right now, is this look at line was one and a half and then they got even more banged up on their most recent game against Atlanta, right which we saw kind of the way that Atlanta I was able to run the football on this team because the entire defensive line was in that game. Nick both some research, Davon Kim laugh, Eric Armstead right, Samson ebucom the Drake Jackson the USK because that's.
Just the defensive line.
Really, really big thing that concerns me, though, is no manual mods that he's out for the year.
Tryvarious Ward right now is on defence.
I'm pretty sure he got a limited practice in Thursday at Memory Service. But if you want to beat this Chiefs team right now, you man up on the outside. Because their wide receiver talent isn't what it used to be. The Niners were already weak at corner if they're bringing Jason Barrett back for his first game this season and then running a gid pe Tarvarius Ward out there, I'm not confident in their ability to man off now with Patrick Mahomes playing quarterback.
So you're going to try to run your quarter stuff.
You're gonna try to do what they always do, just rush with four generate pressure and plays one behind. Rush with four against Mahomes sometimes works, but usually you have to have all your stars, and they ain't got none of them right now.
But horses aren't there in the bullpen. So this defense is so, so so good. I love this defense. I love betting on this defense, not when most of it is missing. It's just to me, the injury attrition is too.
Much for this to be under I'm feeling good about this game. I bet at earlier at the wrong line, but it is what it is. Matt, what about you?
Yeah, I do have this at two and a half. But you know, I know I need to make adjustments as we get more information on the injury reports, and so I always make assumptions when I'm setting my early projections about who will be injured and who won't be And so I know I'm gonna need to adjust that. But one thing I will say that gives me a little bit of encouragement that we do have Jimmy Ward who practiced limitedly on Wednesday, so his return to the
secondary is big. And we have Trent Williams who practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday as well. So if Williams returns, I think that makes a pretty significant difference to the offensive line. So that, you know, gives me a little bit of hope there for the forty nine ers. But you know that said, I have this projected exactly at two and a half right now, and even with some of the adjustments I make, I don't think I'm gonna get all that far from that line.
I'm always ready to bet against Jimmy G. That's one of my number one core philosophies in sports betting, and I'm happy to do it in this spot, even though I am laying couple parts on the road here.
This is the Jimmy G spot, Like he's sixteen and four for his career as an underdog, like.
Well, we'll hopefully be talking about We'll hopefully be talking about these more on Tuesday this week. But I'm not putting a lot of stock in that trend. I don't think that that's a big enough sample size for you to really be paying attention to it when you're betting these two teams. Like, he hasn't had that long a career, especially as a starter. And also I just still don't think that this forty nine ers team is very good. So I'm gonna betting against him.
There, that's that's what it is. And tell him, look, it's it's that you don't like the forty nine Ers. If Zach Wilson we're sixteen and four as an underdog against this bread, you would love it. You would be like, this guy's got that dog in him. We'll see.
I still want to see more from Zach to see if he still has that dog in him, but I can't. Three things in life for certain man, death taxes, and Jimmy G game breaking interceptions. These are the three constants.
Yeah that's fair, that's fair. So bet the over on his interception. Say yeah, well you first believe I am.
I bet it every week. It's a profitable bed, I think, or at least turnovers. Jimmy G turnovers. Sometimes he sneaks a fumble in there. To shake things up on you. But before we let you go, here, Ben, final question here. We need a survivor team for the week, and my candidate the team I'm bringing up this week, I'm looking at the Raiders. I don't really have an interest in laying. I believe it's a touchdown right now for them at
home here in Vegas against the Texans. But I can't bet on the Texans, and I certainly do think that the Raiders are good enough to win this game out right, both teams coming off their bye week here, are you taking them? Or are you giving us another option?
Here?
Raiders are fine one if you haven't burned the Buccaneers. The the miss of this mind to pay the Buccaneers, which I haven't used them yet. And that's what I'm taking to my survivor gouls. The Panthers that completed one pass beyond the line of scrimmage against the Rams. I know this because I bet them Panthers, and I did not enjoy watching that game, But in it I became very certain that the Panthers are not winning.
Any football games anytime soon. So if you have the Buccaneers available, still fine the Raiders. I like the Texians. I have had trouble baiting this year. That Jacksonville game will bit in my memory for a while.
Matt, how about you?
Yeah, Raiders are the team that really stuck out to me when I was looking at this. So I will go with you and say the Raiders.
All right, Well, guys, that is going to do it for us here Ben, where can people find you? And all the great work they're doing around the internet appreciate?
Yeah, yeah, the Ringers were all the football stuff is ring the NFL show, I'm.
New gambling every reading those opportions to do that and Anya on Twitter, Benjamins alack and we just do football. It's pretty good.
Time, all right for Ben, Matt the Oracle and myself. Guys, best of luck this weekend and let's cash some tickets.