Welcome back everybody. It's the Betting Pros College Football Show. I'm your host, Scott Frogman. Follow me on the Twitter at Bogman Sports. I'm joined by Thor Nice from Follow him on the Twitter at thor K. You had another fantastic, amazing, great week of college football last week with Texas beating down Oklahoma forty nine to zering.
I know that is what everyone was watching.
No other important games, right, that was the only one in my heart anyway, Thor So, I loved college football last week even though I was five and five, you know, so, just sitting at five hundred on my article coming off that eight and two weeks, I knew the other show was going to drop eventually. So but I haven't finished under five hundred yet this year. Knock on wood, of course. But thor, how is your weekend? And are you ready for? And I can't believe I'm saying this week seven already here?
Yeah, weekend was great. Suffered the first loss for Kansas of the season, so that was that was kind of tough. And my other alma mater, Iowa, was about ugliest game I've ever seen, although they've they've had like three other games that were exactly the same. Yeah so I but yeah, we will soldier through at them. And and my my betting weekend was sort of the opposite. I I always
start slow. I don't know what it is. I you know, some some year I'm either gonna decide to stop betting in September or I'm gonna I'm gonna have to modulate something. But I always, I always pick it up. And last week I by far my best week of the year. So usually I have one of those vengeance weeks and then everything's you know, upward from there. And I hope that's what happens this year as well.
You figure out more stuff as the season goes on, right, And I think that's kind of what part of it is is, you know, you start to see more stuff, the trends become a little more clear, But then you also have injuries. So I don't know, I never found the best time of year to bet. I just say week one, in the final week of the season, regular season anyway, those are always the hardest, uh, you know, in pretty much any sport because week one it's like how much different are these teams?
And the last week is who cares and who doesn't?
You know for sure.
Yeah, so, I mean it's just effort level at that point. But we have sitting in the middle here in week seven, we have some great games, and let's start out with these Thursday and Friday night matchups.
Here. Throw the first one we have on Thursday.
UCF is a twenty three and a half point favorite at home against Temple. The number is forty six wbu versus Baylor is you know, Baylor is a three and a half point road favorite in fifty four and a half is a total in that one. So for these Thursday games, do you have a lean either way?
Yes? My my lean in UCF Temple, I guess I would have would have two of them. My leans would be Temple and the under Temple. There. Their offense remains awful as always, but their defense has gotten good, and not only that, specifically their run defense. Temple's run defense
is actually legit now. It is legitimately good. And as we know, UCF, their best thing is their rushing offense, and when you can take that away, they start to have real problems when they have to throw, you know, like for instance, go back to the Louisville game when when John Reeves Plumbly had to throw thirty times the
UCF offense the wheels came off the thing. Now, in this game, I don't think it's going to get that bad for UCF where they have to throw Plumbly that many times, because Temple almost assuredly will not be able to score enough to put the game result in jeopardy. But they're you know, Temple is going to be able to take away what UCF what they want to do to the degree enough, I think that that makes us inflated,
spread too much, a bridge too far. So I would want to take the points with Temple, and for almost the exact same reason I want the under. They have a pretty solid defense this year as well. They can stop the run as well.
Well.
Temple's going to have to throw here in order to score. We'll see if they can. Jury will be out on that. But I, like I said I Temple is going to be able to suppress the running of UCF, which might incentivize UCF to try to throw more, which is always in the favor of the opponent because Jean Reee Plumbly can't throw.
Yeah, and just looking at like PFF grades here thor offensively, UCF forty ninth, So you know, above average team, but not the UCF that we have seen in their recent history. Temple ninth in grade on PFF in terms of their defense. So obviously the numbers are adding up to towards what you're saying as well. Here according to them, you have a good lean in WVU versus Baylor. Is that a stay away for you?
For me, that's a stay away because WVU is in general a fade team for me. But Baylor they've been disappointing and it's seems like it it's an experiential thing at this point. It's such a young team. You know, they they're breaking in a new starting quarterback and it's what they chose. You know, they didn't want Jerry Bohannan anymore. They probably made the right decision if you watch Jerry Buhannon in at South Florida, but shape and he hasn't
had the start that you would have hoped. And then at a lot of these other positions they're just as young. And so I do think Baylor will eventually get there, but it's been kind of slow going stop start, you know that that sort of a thing. This is a very hard environment for them for Baylor to be walking into it. It's a tough spot Thursday night heading into Huntington. I definitely like Baylor more as a team, but with the spot that it's in and the homefield advantage that
West Virginia has. To me, the line is fair. Like my Justice line on this game is Baylor minus two point three. The live line is Baylor minus two point five. I just there's nothing for me there to stay away.
Yeah, interesting game there, but you know, maybe a watch and don't bet on that one on Friday. I know there's a game here that we both like.
We have SMU minus twelve and a half versus Navy fifty seven total on that, but you and I both like FIU or excuse me, UTSA at FIU. This game UTSA is thirty three point favorites, thirty three and a half in some places. I think it's going to open up. Sixty three and a half is the total here. I wrote up in my artcle I love UTSA. I'll lay the points. It's fun to pick on bad teams when you're betting, and FIU is a horrid team now, and I think UTSA is sixth in pace of play too.
They are going to pace this game. They're going to be offense on offense a lot. And we've already seen FIU give up a lopsided game at home this year against Western Kentucky, and UTSA just beat Western Kentucky. So of course, you know the transitive properties that never fail us ever in college football. Right, UTSA is already better than Western Kentucky. They should beat FIU, buy more than seventy three nothing, of course, that never works. I fi use a different team now than they were a couple
of weeks ago, maybe better at quarterback. They did have a win against New Mexico or actually New Mexico State a couple of weeks ago as well, so you know, I fi used better, but they're still very bad. So you know this game is on Friday. It's one less ai to prep for both these teams, which I think would also favor UTSA here or so, I mean, I am all aboard the Roadrunners bandwagon, So I will lay all them points and take UTSA.
What do you think about either one of these games? But I know you like Utsao?
Yeah in that one. You The books almost can't make UTSA a high enough favorite.
Yeah, they can't make it ugly enough for me to not want to take it, right.
Yeah, I mean the lineup it was like I think it was like twenty seven and a half and it just extreme quickly got fed up, like almost by a touchdown, right like. And I think it's it is even still climbing, and that is perfectly justifiable here, uh FIU. They're not only you know, objectively horrid team. If you put them in the FCS, I don't think they would finish over five hundred. They barely beat Bryant in the opener. Uh they beat him by one point? Was that even an overtime too?
Yeah, thirty seven, but I don't think it was over time or did they go for two at the end.
It was it was something, It was something.
I mean, Bryan isn't good either in the FCS level, they're like four.
Yeah, So they're not in.
The team anywhere, And.
Like you said, there won't uh fi use only the other wins again to New Mexico State, who is one of the five worst teams in the nation. And last week FIU hosted Yukon and lost by twenty one points, So I fi us really bad, you know, And another thing to consider here, and this one is really really important. F I you, they're only the only player on that roster that I consider legitimate. It's their outside receiver Chambers. That kid is considered questionable for this game. I don't
think he's going to play. Uh, Tyree's Chambers probably a guy that's going to get a long look from the NFL. I don't know if there is one other singular player on that roster that you can say that about. If Tyree's Chambers is not playing in that game, I don't even know what. It's not just that they won't be able to move the ball. I don't know what they do with the ball. It's it's it's one of the like he is the identity of the offense. It's it's the one, the one guy that they trot out that
scares people. So, I mean, it's not just that it's a mismatch, and it's not just that the recent history would suggest UTSA. It's also that FIU has one gun to bring to this fight, and that gun is is not going to be discharging. Really unfortunate. And and and like you said, Bagman, the teams that FIU has played, it's you know, the only one where they you know, they won the game against New Mexico and then New Mexico State and then Bryant, but they got annihilated by
Texas State by almost thirty points. Texas State is also one of the worst teams in the ses. And then, like I said, they got annihilated by Yukon. The only time that FIU has played a team that is above eighty ninth sp plus was Western Kentucky and Western Kentucky's no great shakes. You know this year their number seventieth sp plus, which isn't even average, right, not even the median watermark. They lost that game seventy three to nothing.
What can Western Kentucky do really well? They passed to the ball this utsa team. What fell off about it was sincere McCormick left, so it was the run game, and then their defense got worse. But the passing game has gotten way better because everybody came back, right like Frank Harris came back and it's better. And then the three receivers came back, and all of those guys are going to the NFL and they're all really really good. So they go three wide and they could dominate all
of it against FYU. They are going to do whatever they want. This one is lay the points or stay away.
Yeah, I completely agree with you on that game. That's an ugly one.
Let's go over and talk about the games with ninety five percent or more of a cash laid on one side.
We have six of them this week, and they are all spread no totals, which is a little surprising, just a strange happenstance. Here.
We start with Toledo minus nine versus Kent State. This is a ninety nine percent cash and ninety seven percent tickets store. So everyone right now, you know we're recording this on a Wednesday afternoon. Everyone is on Toledo and laying the nine. So obviously this number is probably going to get bigger by the time you're listening to this. But I don't know if that matters. Does it matter thor are you just all over Toledo here?
I like Toledo too, Yeah, so I guess I guess I'll be a square as well. I will say last week, and for people to, you know, listen to all of our shows, they'll they'll know that I'm telling the truth here. I think I was talking about this with Thomas for sure, and maybe bogming with you as well, maybe on last week's show. The Sharps were on Kent State last week too, to the degree where I was like, like, like, usually
I can at least explain it to myself. Last week was really weird when when Kent State was they were playing Miami, they traveled to Miami of Ohio. It got so skewed from what my number was that I was starting to look into the Miami of Ohio roster, like did they have a bunch of injuries that I'm not aware of? Or is something going on here? And I just couldn't. I could not figure out what was going on.
But my numbers were screaming at me that Miami of Ohio is gonna win the game outright, and the Sharps pushed that game all the way to Kent State minus six on the road. Well, Miami of Ohio won the game outright. In this one, my numbers like Toledo by double digits. They love Toledo in this game. It looks like the sharp's on again. Like Ken State, I definitely leaned Toledo in that one for sure.
Yeah, that's gonna be That's gonna be a fun one. But I'm with you.
I'm on Toledo here WKU is laying eight against on the road against Middle Tennessee. But this is another one where it's not just the cash, it's the tickets to both. On the side of WK you very favorably. What do you think about this game? I mean Middle Tennessee is they've shown up. They obviously beat Miami. We talked about this a little bit in our stages that we do before the store feels a little fluky.
Hey, look they won the game.
Congratulations, But I just don't know if that's very believable. And you made the point many times about, hey, look, this was a terrible match for Miami, and this is you know, if you're going down, you're looking for one team to match up against Miami, it was probably Middle Tennessee and it ended up working for him.
So I don't know. I just I trust wk you more.
Yeah, that's right. Yeah, And Middle Tennessee we talked about this on on the stages that we did, which you do every Wednesday night. People want to tune in and ask us a question live. Middle Tennessee is a very matchup specific team, right. They recruit small, shifty players because they don't have access to like the elite recruits. They just look for these system fits and they run. They run the air rate. So they have this neot alarmed
quarterback who can get the ball out. You hope you can hit the receivers on the hands and then that they can make a guy or to mess and you
can maybe manufacture explosive plays in that way. Teams that don't tackle very well in the secondary and don't cover very well that they see separation are the teams that struggle with Middle Tennessee UH team like Miami for instance, and and and then on what you want to do against Middle Tennessee Tennessee, you know, and then and then on the you know, defensive side or whatever, they struggle as well. So with with Western Kentucky that the magic
going the other way. Western Kentucky is equip to stop the passing game in a way that Middle Tennessee's defense is not. You can pick on Middle Tennessee secondary, it's not very good. Just that Tyler Van Dyke couldn't do it in that game. Apparently North Carolina secondary is better than than Middle Tennessee's. Western Kentucky secondary. Western Kentucky secondary
happens to be good. Western Kentucky run defense not quite as good, but their secondary is good and it's deep, right, so they can they can actually contend with the spread offense, as you know, going and press the formation where Middle Tennessee runs out of bodies. So both teams have very very similar offensive strategies, and on the surface, they might look similar, and it might look like sort of similar resumes and stuff like that. So you might be surprised
that the road team is laying eight here. But I actually think the Western Kentucky matches up way better, mostly because of the viability of their secondary in this game. If they're able to keep that Middle Tennessee passing game off schedule, I know that they're going to be able to take away the explosive plays Western Kentucky through the year the Middle Tenancy wants to do. I think that they can really hinder what Middle tennanc He wants to
do on offense. I would lean Western Kentucky in that game.
I'm with you on that one.
The next there's four here, I think I have a good lean on maybe one of them. But Wisconsin is a seven and a half point favorite. At Michigan State, the cash is well on their side. Cash also on San Jose State playing eight and a half, Yukon getting nine and a half at Ball State is getting a lot of love. And then Southern missling four and a half at Arkansas State. So these last four here, Thorn, do you have a good lean on Wisconsin, San Jose State, Yukon or Southern Miss.
The the Wisconsin Michigan State game, I definitely investigated. Wisconsin was one of my hits last weekend. I was expecting, you know, the dead cap bounce or whatever off of the Paul Chris firing, and we got that. This week. I was, you know, sort of provisionally hoping that I could talk mylf in the Michigan State because at some point you expect Michigan State to show just a modicum of pride and pick it's up up off the mat.
And this would be a really good spot to do it, because you get this team coming off of what what for that you know, it wasn't a good opponent that Wisconsin beat last week, but it wasn't an exhilarating win. Nonetheless, coming off the week that they had just had, you win in Leonard's debut, and now you go on the road in what's sort of a sleepy spot because with Wiscott Wisconsin certainly, like the rest of us have seen, everybody just wiped the floor with Michigan State, any you know,
decent opponent this year. And so you know, it's like, well, O, can I can I justify you know, a bet on the idea that Michigan State could ambush them here? It's hard to though, It's it's it's it's just really hard. Michigan State there. Their worst thing that this was sort of along my lines of thinking of trying to talk myself into Michigan State is Michigan State they have this
absolutely abysmal pass defense. They're their run defense is a little bit better, and so you're like, well, you know, I mean, like you know, bram Mertz, every time he plays a decent pass defense, he stinks, so, like you know, and and maybe they can they can somewhat hold down Wisconsin's run game, but then like you're starting to stretch it already. And I also, I'm not going to back Wisconsin in two straight weeks on the road, you know what I mean, Like, you know, it's to cover big numbers.
So for me, that that one's a stay away. The next one. San Jose stayed against Fresno State. I forbid anyone from listening to this show from betting on Fresno until Jayner comes back. That team, that program is a mess right now. And it's it's not just Hayter that's hurt. They have several key contributors that are hurt. But it was like the second that Hainer, you know that he was, he was out, like it's they removed.
All mad stayed also four and one against the spread this year.
Great, Yeah, they've been great. I last week I put the thing out about they were San Jose was plus six hundred at some books plus six fifty at others to win the Mountain West and all they had to do was beat UNLV and they basically didn't play any tough opponents the rest of the year. They blew out UNLV. Now they get fresm of State without Hayner, and then
their next several opponents all absolutely stink. So San Jose State is going to be waltzing at least into the conference title game where they're either going to play at down Boise State or a down air Force. I shouldn't be patting my back about that because it's not relevant
to anyone else. The odds are different. So for for forgive me for the naval gazing right there, but that one is San Jose state or pass and you probably want before you make a decision, and you probably want to monitor just one billion percent confirmed that hater is out. It's it's looking like that, but you know whatever you're listening to this, just confirm that and then some of the other fresm of state. I just check on their status, but I either way, I you know, again, until Hayter
comes back, not betting on them. The you on ball state, Uh, that's one that I'm probably not gonna end up touching. Yukon has been able to take advantage of some circumstances and getting to I think they're three and four now, and circumstances might get them to five and seven where they really just need to upset one team to become ball eligible, which is hilarious. This could be the game, like if I mean if they do, because they're gonna play two other games this year where I believe that
they're gonna be either favored or else. It's going to be very very close. But I'm not sure that this is the matchup for them. One thing to keep in mind about Yukon, even though they've caught it right two weeks speaking of Presno State, two weeks ago, they caught Presno State the first game that hater was out, So I mean, congratulations. At that point, you're basically playing an FTS team. And then last week they was was at FIU that they that they, yeah, our our our favorite
FIU team. Ball State is certainly a better team and now Yukon has to go on the road. The other thing I'll say about Yukon is they have a whole bunch of injuries themselves, you know they. I mean, they start off the season by losing their own starting quarterback and then they lost a whole bunch of other guys. The running back room is particularly bad. They a couple of weeks ago it was so bad with injuries. Jim Mora actually was batting around the idea of shifting a
three hundred pounder to running back. This kid who had played running back.
I remember his bolts were like, ay, he looks he looks nimble out there. Yeah he can break a tackle like he was legit thinking about it. I like, I think a little of that was tongue in cheek, but I don't he gets that bad who I don't know if it was.
I don't know if it was because they had like four running back injuries at the time. And I'll tell you what, bug maan, I will never ever root for a kid to get injured. But knowing that Yukon was probably one running back injury away from shifting to three hundred pounder back there, the way that I'll put it is, I wouldn't have been sad if that had happened.
Like if he just he get cramps, you know, he cramps up or something, you know, not the major. Let's just be the big guy. That's very short.
Just one game. I wanted to see that that three hundred pounder rumbled for Jimmy Mora junior. But but that game, for me, I don't think I can back you con in that spot. You know, I mean, coming off that the two wins, they're clearly playing. I mean, I'm not gonna say a pup their head because they the opponents were what they were, but the injuries, et cetera. So for me, that that that's a stayaway. And then the the Southern miss Arkansas State game for me the angle
on that. It's not the side, it's the under and the reason for that is both the defenses are extremely active in terms of piling up TfL sacks, uh, tip balls, interceptions, that that sort of stuff, and the offensive lines are not very cud Southern miss you know, and a part of it too playing into it. Southern miss have been playing this this freshman quarterback because they had an injury before and then the coaching staff early on, uh will it key or whatever the Zach WILLI WILLI key or
something like that. They they essentially just decided to hitch their wagons to him regardless because I think they view him as the future of the So they're gonna take their lumps with that kid however it goes this year. But like you have him playing behind what's not a very good offensive line. But the Southern Missus offense hasn't been that good this year, but Southern Missus defense is and it's a havoc creating defense. It gets after the quarterback. Like I said, it's ball hawking as well.
They have mass Tyler van Dyke, you know another team. Yeah, they didn't.
They didn't put up a great fight in that game. They couldn't score on offense, as you mentioned, but they made it interesting for a half.
For sure.
There's a lot of sports betters out there that would
love to harass Tyler Vandyke. Yes the burn tickets. Although I can't criticize mister Van Dyke because I actually needed to start him in my fifty team college fantasy football league last week because because I have Bryce Young and he got injured and then I didn't know, you know, like leading up to kick off, Nick Saban was doing all the things, and Van Dyke is my only other quarterback, so I rolled the dice and wasn't really rolling the dice because he gets to play North Carolina, who gives
up a billion yards to everybody. But anyway, shout out to Tyler Vandyke for me the Southern miss Arkansas, I say I'm going under for that reason. Neither of those teams can keep opposing defensive lines out of the backfield, So I mean there's gonna be a ridiculous amount of sacks, a ridiculous amount of TfL both the offense. They're gonna have a really hard time getting going. They're they're gonna find themselves in a lot of like second and sixteens
and stuff like that. The under has a really good shot of getting there unless we have multiple pick sixes and or fumble returns, which you know, I'm just gonna knock on wood right now, because with the way that the offensive play against the way that the defense played, you know, it certainly is a possibility. But barring stuff like that, I would I would like the under that and my system does too as well.
I should say, all right, let's go to the big five top games of the week. And this was kind of hard to narrow down, but top two are extremely obvious. Probably the top three are extremely obvious. But number three Alabama, who did slip are? They are hosting number six Tennessee. The line here is seven and a half for Alabama, the total is sixty five. And look, obviously, as you mentioned before, the health of Bryce Young is at the
forefront of where we're going in this game. So how do you see this playing with or without Bryce Young?
Yeah, Bray's young thing is enormous. I mean, it's it's for multiple It's not just like Brayce Young in a vacuum worth probably about ten to eleven points on the spread, just in and of itself, and in my line on this game, if it's a fully healthy Bryce fully healthy, If fully healthy Bryce Young was playing, I would have Alabama minus eight and a half. But even if Bryce Young is playing, he's not going to be fully healthy
and he definitely might not play. And if he doesn't play, and if Tennessee gets back Cedar Tillman, which is the way that it's looking now, Tennessee's wide receiver number one, if Young's not playing but Tillman is, I would I would actually favor Tennessee in this game. And the Bugs aren't going to but me personally, I would favor them. But we don't again, we don't at this time. We're recording on Wednesday night. We don't know Bryce young status
quite yet. But if if Bryce Young doesn't play, it not only is you're losing the in a vacuum qualitative value, it also enormously plays into the hands of Tennessee's defense because mill Row he's a row passer, but he's a really, really good runner. The Tennessee defense is awesome defending the run. Where it really struggles is against the pass. And so if I mean, if Saban could get Bryce Young out
there by hooker by Kruck. I think he's going to try to do it, but we'll see if that's even possible. Because Bryce Young has is a straight AC joint of
his throwing shoulder. Quinn Yours missed what was it three weeks with the AC sprain of his non throwing shoulder right right, Like, I mean, people can be optimistic, and certainly Alabama's gonna tell us like, oh yeah, Bryce, you know, like sure seven days after he got the injury, you know, leading up to the Alabama game on on the PA system, Oh, Bryce Young starting for us, And I'm like, okay, like that would be a medical miracle. But okay, this game,
we'll see, you know. I mean, there are certainly shots that you can give, you know that uh Drew Brees was talking about that, that you can try to try to help the kid get out there. But I mean, especially with it being the throwing show, that this is very early on the on the timeline, and so if you you know, even having a depreciated Bryce Young, you are less viable in attacking Tennessee's greatest weakness. The other thing,
of course, Alabama's offensive line is down. Alabama's receiving course way down So if you have like a you know, eighty three percent Bryce young, are they gonna be able to take advantage of Tennessee's weakness to the you know, the other otherwise degree that you would. We'll see about that. And then Tennessee's offense, I know they're gonna move the ball in Alabama's defense. They're gonna move the ball on any defense they play all season, I mean, regardless of
whether Tillman plays or not. But if Tilman comes back, they're gonna be even nastier. Tennessee is top ten in the nation in both rushing rushing success rate and passing success rate. I also happen to think that they are the players are being called by the best play coller in college football, Josh Hipel, a guy who was criminally underrated his entire career now is finally starting to get
his due respect. I don't think he's gonna quite get it in lesser until he you know, wins this game and you know, goes on and has a great season this year. Might finally start to get his due, but it's been just criminally underrated throughout his career. They can be multiple and they're always calling the correct play, so it's like it's like a pitcher who has like four elite pitches and has awesome control and the sequencing of his pitches are impeccable, so you have absolutely no idea
what's coming. It's always filthy and he can put it wherever he wants. That's Tennessee's offense. And now they're getting their wide receiver one back. And meanwhile, by the way Tillman missed the last couple of weeks, they won those games, which is great, but also it gave the opportunity for Bru McCoy, former five star balllet, number one receiver in his class, to step up into the wide receiver one role. And he finally started to show the brow McCoy that
we were promised by the recruiting analysts. Both games he went over one hundred yards, looked like a beast. If we get that Broo McCoy next to one hundred percent set or Tillman and the hen and Hooker that now I mean like people high respect greatly in this, Like Jordan Reed, we're talking about Hennon Hooker as you know, a Day two type pick or a top fifty sixty type pick kind of guy. You get all that stuff
going again, very very scary for Tennessee. So you know, as far as where this spread is, where we're talking right now, this moment in time, there's the we don't know yet exactly what the status is with Young and with Tillman, but I'm taking the seven and a half points for sure. If Bryce Young plays, I still like Tennessee plus the seven and a half. I'll be way less confident because I don't know exactly the percentage that
Bryce Young will be. But if Bryce Young doesn't play, it is this is a smash of This is a smash Tennessee spot because Alabama categorically will not be able to take advantage of Tennessee's defensive weakness, and they will be They will only have the recourse to go into Tennessee defensive strength, which you're gonna be a problem for him.
Yeah, I mean it's gonna be a fun one, that's for sure. But Alabama does you know I keep saying this and people take it the wrong way. This is the most beatable Bama team that we've seen for a while. Doesn't mean that they're actually gonna get beat but they are Beata bull I think the last couple of years they just were not in that category of a very beatable team, unless you know, Georgia could beat them. You know,
maybe a top two team could have beat them. But they're gettable this year, more gettable than they have been in the past. Number five Michigan is six and a half point home favorites against number ten Penn State. Fifty one and a half is the over in this game, thor you have a good lean one way or the other on Michigan Penn State.
I lean Michigan. There's a lot of smart people out there that are very clearly leaning Penn State because that line was sticking right at seven and then it now it's toggled down apparently to six and a half. That's fine. I'm gonna make Penn State prove me wrong, and if
they do, great, the books can have my money. But I haven't seen much from Penn State to like, you know, crazy change my opinion from recent years that the running game is, you know, marginally better, The evansive line is marginally better, but like the whole thing of it, like, it's not like this team is like raised several levels. To me, it still feels like it's in the same filum. You still have the quarterback that strugg I mean not
that he struggles to throw down field. He categorically can't. He has a wet noodle alarm that this scrambler and Sean Clifford and they don't have dots in anymore. You don't have like the singular receiving talent anymore. So the receipt the running game has gotten a bit better. I think the passing game is a little bit down. You're still sort of around the same spot. I don't think the Michigan's defense is going to have any problem with that.
And meanwhile, the Michigan I'm more like, if I'm an opponent, I'm more afraid of that offense now than even last year when you know, when they were a really really good team, guys. Whereas that team at Cad macnamara that who you know, you know, shouldn't have been starting for a playoff contender. Now you have a legitimate quarterback that scares people on JJ McCarthy. You can hurt people through
the air end with his legs. I you know, again dominant defense for Michigan, that the offense can do more things. Playcorms running really well. I'll lay the seven points here and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. You know. It's this. The hard thing about the handycap is we haven't seen either of these two teams really play anyone yet. So that's the part of it where you sort of have to step out into the unknown and you have to trust your conviction of what you've seen against these teams
playing like lesser opponents. But my conviction would be on the Michigan side.
Yeah, I'm with you on that too. I want to take Michigan. And you know I told you this before. I think I end up with another seven and three week of Mike Cart. You know, Mike Cart obviously went down with a seizure early in that game from Michigan, and you could just see the kids reacting towards it, and they were upset. They got they started rolling. The second half I think of that game is two minutes longer.
I probably get not only the Michigan cover, but the other the over, but also on the old Miss side. We were talking about this in the stream too. I barely got just because Ole Miss wanted to go for more points at the end. The only reason I got them laying the points last week too. So hey, look, you know you get these by inches, you don't get them by inches.
It's just the way it is when you're gambling. That's all.
Well, Bogman, you know what they said in the Mighty Ducks if it had gone half an inch the other way, Charlie right, question.
Never even thought of it that way, right? I remember that line number thirteen TCU four point favorites at home against number eight Okay State. This total is sixty eight and a half.
We obviously saw TCU's offense come alive last week against Kansas. Oklahoma State has been great all year with Spencer Sanders. Do you have a good lean one way or the other in this Big twelve matchup? Yeah?
I actually did. I leaned TCU. I actually did not know that that number it tackled up to four. When I was looking into this earlier in the afternoon, it was three and a half. I don't disagree with the line movement. I think TCU matches up pretty.
Much betting pros. Just so you know, it's four everywhere now.
Like, Yeah, I don't disagree with that half was the only you can only get that one from Michigan minus six and a half on fan duel.
But it looks like four everywhere here according to betting pros.
Okay, yeah, yeah, the TCU, I think, well, I just think they're the objectively better team. And some of Oklahoma State's stuff this year they've done is a little bit fools goldie to me, whereas everything that TCU is doing to me feels legitimate. And I think that Oklahoma State is going to have problems defending some of this stuff that TCU does. TCU can be multiple in a way that Oklahoma State can't. And Oklahoma State's defense that's the problem for them this year is last year they had
the dominant defense. The defense is falling way off because they lost all those guys to the NFL. They lost Gym Knowles, et cetera, and and and to their credit to this point, and they've defied my expectations. I didn't think Oklahoma State would be nearly as good. So so you know that's on you know, me a callup on that one to the Oklahoma State folks. The offense has gotten a little bit there, it's gotten better to to sort of mitigate some of that, but the the defense
is down and it gives up explosive plays. I think TCU is going to generate several of those in this game. And I think if if that is indeed the case, it's going to be very very hard for an offense that where the majority of the usage is being centered on Spencer Sanders. For an offense like that to keep pace right like in a game that becomes a shootout. I think that is the nightmare scenario for Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State. You have to have Spencer Sanders put
on the heroka. That's when Spencer Sanders turns into the what did I call him? And a pa like the fembot. Spencer Sanders were like, it's that starts going and you know, like the smoke starts coming out of his ear and that's where you see the three interception game when Oklahoma State's ahead, and you know it's it's you know, all within their their volition and they can control things. That's
when he plays well. But yeah, when when the looks get different, and when when you got to press him and you're pushing the tempo and yadaya, you're trying to come from behind, you got to push the ball down field more, you become more predictable. That's when he starts making the mistakes. So this is a game that could get away from them, and if it does, it wouldn't surprise me. If TCU and wins by double.
Digits, Yeah, gonna be a fun game there, for sure. Those always those always seem to be fun, those big big twelve matchups. Number twenty UTAH three and half point home favorites against number seven USC sixty five is a total here?
What way you leaning in this game? Thor?
This line surprised me a little bit. I know Jordan Addison is a little bit nicked up, isn't he? So how do we feel in this game?
Yeah, well we'll have to get a definitive picture on out of since status. But yeah, he got knocked out of the last game and he's obviously enormous to USC. I think another big part of this this handicap is USC's defense has way exceeded everybody's expectations, in large part because they've been able to generate a ridiculous amount of turnovers almost by any any measure, and unsustainable amount of turnovers.
You were wondering when they played a team that could take care of the ball and could be efficient on offense, you know what would happen to that defense because it seems house of card z. You know, you think maybe if if an offense can take care of the ball and could just stay on schedule, the whole thing falls down.
Well that's what Utah is, right, Like, I mean, Utah teams can, you know, like they were built to be able to you know, like in response to this USC team, even though the USC team came along later, but like that, I really like the matchup of Utah's offense against that USC defense. What Utah's offense does not do. The weakness of it is they cannot generate explosive plays, and in certain games that is going to be an enormous problem.
And we've already seen dis manifest in a couple of them, right, Like, they've already taken their couple losses in part because of this. But I don't think they need to do that to beat USC. What they need to do to beat USC is play good defense, but then on offense, take care of the ball and stay on schedule. I know that they're going to do that on offense, right Like, I mean,
they just will. They're not going to allow USC to flip the field and then put Caleb Williams in a really good field position and then put points on the on the board. That way, they're gonna make USC's offense, Okay, you want to score a touchdown, you got to go eighty yards, you gotta go seventy five yards, and you got to methodically do it against our defense, a really solid defense, you know, in Utah's. Utah's offense, I think it probably better than people think it's. It's number ten
SP plus. USC's, by the way, is fiftieth SP plus. Again, it's been played above its head because of the turnovers. I think those go away in this game. USC also has a really really bad special teams in Utah plays awesome special teams. It's a discrepancy in the SPPLUS rankings almost one hundred. Utah is twenty third. USC is one hundred and twentieth. So that's another area of the game, sort of a sneaky part where I think Utah could maybe steal some points. I actually like Utah in this game.
I think Utah is going to win and I like them to cover as well.
A tough place to play too, Utah.
Very tough place to play.
Utah very the crowd is into it. They're going to make it difficult for sure.
The last one in the top five, let's go to the ACC number fifteen NC State hosting number eighteen Syracuse. Syracuse is a three and a half point favorite here on the road. Forty four is the total. I know there's a question about Devin Leary if he's going to be available in this game of QB for NC State. Syracuse has been killing it too, So how do you see this one going?
Yeah, I think Leary's out of there. I don't think he's gonna play from all the indications that we've got. Dave Doran did say on Monday that Leary's injury is not season ending, but the sort of he he didn't rule him out for this weekend, but the strong infinuation was that he was not gonna play. I would be stunned if Devin Leary takes even one snap. So so I think you can bet assuming that Devin Larry is
going to be out. If there was good news for NSIS State, it's that they had two other, uh very important injuries to key contributors in their last game, and Doran was was way more optimistic about about those guys. They're the running back and their wide receiver to the running back Demi Sumo Kung Bay. I should have even tried. And then the receiver Devin I love.
To hear those Minnesota guys try to say those I don't.
I don't know why I tried. I really should not have. But anyway, and and Devin Carter for them is their best blocking receiver, and he is also of their downfield guys. He's not as much usage, but it's it's the pop the top thing and then the helping the run game. So he's a valuable player to that offense, even if the receiving numbers aren't a high as like say they or Thomas. He was more like the short area guy.
He matters. It seems though, like Carter is gonna play and that Demi's gonna play as well, or at least that's what dorin Monts is to believe. But again Leary almost assuredly will be out. NC State is coming off of like NC State is in a bad spot here.
They're coming off of a like a big win and and probably a win that you look back in hindsight that probably they shouldn't have had because they had to overcome all these different injuries and all this stuff you sort of get by Florida State, but now you have this beaten up team you have to turn around the next week, you have to travel to Syracuse and play the Syracuse team that not only is undefeated, but they
are fresh as a daisy. It's not just that they're coming off of a bye week the week before they played friggin Wagner. They haven't they haven't actually played a real game in three weeks. So so I mean it's the tail of two cities with this game. Both the rosters are in totally opposite spots. And Syracuse they want to get out and they want to run and and and they can also be physical, you know, Schrader, you know, pounding them. And n said their defense gonna have to
run after Tucker the whole time. And Trader now can pass, which NC State their defense is gonna have to get used to it because the Strader that they know, he couldn't throw, yeah, but now he can. Now he can throw. So Syracuse can be multiple now in a way that they couldn't used to be. They're going to provide more of a problem for NC State's defense than they used to and NC State's offense the jury's out on if
they're gonna be able to move the ball. We this backup quarterback, we'll have to see he's just like this veteran kid that he you know, from the FCS or whatever that that that they brought in. Uh, I don't know. Well, we'll see some of these backup quarterbacks that we see are just hide the women and children bad.
Well, but some of them are good to look at ASU.
You know, Uh, Emery Jones got hurt and here comes the uh I can't remember the kid's name from ASU, but leads them to a win over Washington as two touchdown dogs.
So it's just, you know, it's more often, more often than not, mostly exactly more often.
Than not, when you go from the established arter the person that nobody's ever heard of before, it's a precipitous drop off, and sometimes it's enough so where it rules that team out for their odds of winning the game. So I mean like that, certainly the way you lean in this one, it's tough not having Leary. Leary's a fringe NFL guy, like you know, you know, probably a Day three type type prospect whatever. Losing him really hurts, especially for an offense that wasn't dynamic to begin with.
So I if they're not able to throw and their running games not awesome, right, and they're also the running back if he can play, like the running back room might be depreciated anyway. So like, you know, I got questions about the NC State side that for all these reasons, that's why Syracuse is favored. That if the backup quarterback, if he shows up and he's awesome, then and C
say it certainly would have a puncher shot. But the odds in this one would say that with the percentage is you would lean towards Syracuse for sure.
Yeah, and shout out to Thomas. So Thomas, the Syracuse orangement, go Orange, let's go. How about them games that you like? Thor we went through the top five games, We've gone through the money games and the early games this week. You know, it's funny because we were talking about this before we hit record and you brought up I've only written up two games for my article so far, and you brought up one that I already wrote up in
the Cal and Colorado under forty nine. And you know, my first instinct in this game was to take Cal minus the fourteen. But then I thought about, you know, the dead cap bounce with you know, Carl Drell being fired, and you were calling for that the entire season that Carl Durrell was gonna get canned here, so not a surprise to see him go. But I mean, what do we think in this game for Colorado and Cal because neither offense has been good, Like Jayde not has been good.
He is like the most efficient running back in the nation. But when you look at like you know, PFF grades, if they mean anything to you, I believe Cal is one hundred and twenty ninth in run blocking, so he is literally doing it all by himself.
They have a little bit of passing at Cal, but Colorado's got nothing on offense at all. So I mean, this game screams the under which can be a little tricky sometimes, but I trust in my gut and FIU in New Mexico State a couple of weeks ago and that paid off big time. So what do you think in this game? Is forty nine? The over is is fairly high for these two pathetic offenses.
Yeah. I rarely bring up fantasy in these shows because I know people hate to hear it, but I'm gonna do it for the second time today because in one of those ridiculously deep C two C leagues, I took jade Not at the end of a draft like the forty fifth round or whatever, and it's it's one of my one of my great picks of all time. I'm gonna have that kid for the next four years. And one of the owners in that league every single week sends me trade offers for him, and I've ignored every
single one, and he's getting increasingly annoyed with me. He's like sending me messages like, hey man, have you seen my trade offers for jade Not? And it's like yeah, yeah, yeah, and I'm I'm not responding to them. You are not
getting jade Not. But yet j Not been great and and cal Cal ran into one justin Wilcox, who struggled to drive offenses and entire time there found a Jym so so so good on him, but like you said, their offensive line stinks, they don't have quarterback play their their pass catchers aren't very good either, so it's it's still even though they finally found a good offensive player, he's a true freshman, and he's surrounded by not good offensive players, and they are playing one of the worst
teams in the entire FBS, certainly the worst Power five team. For the side, I'm same thing you were talking about, Buckman. I'm not touching the side of this one. I think it's an objectively fair line. In fact, my system has California minus fourteen point four. It is right on that Vegas line. But the under I'm with you man, the total came out, I was actually surprised with how high it was. It comes out forty eight and a half my system. That was much more fair forty one and
a half. If Vegas had dropped that number, nobody bats an eye like again, I'm surprised it was a touchdown higher than that. Colorado. They can't generate offense on really anybody. And the concern when you know with you know, as far as the total handicap goes in the Colorado game, is that the opponent is going to score a billion points.
Kelly is gonna score a billion points. Cal's gonna run the ball a whole bunch with jayde Not behind the bad offensive line, and then they're going to huddle up very very slowly, and then they're going to meander up to the line and they're gonna snap the ball with like three seconds left on the play clock. Every single time. Cal rinks one hundred and twenty third in adjusted pace Colorado's they're fifty six, so they're around average, but their
offense stinks, so it doesn't really matter for me. This total is too high. I do lean under wouldn't touch the side.
Yeah, I love that game this week for sure. The other game that you wanted to talk about is you're Jayhawks, number nineteen ranked. They're going into Oklahoma, who just did not show up for the Red River rivalry there, and I think Dylan Gabriel could be back here.
I don't know how much it matters though, but Oklahoma currently sitting as I believe nine point favorites. Is that right, Yeah? Nine point favorites right now. But I took a look at the peaked at the money line here thor and Kansas is at plus to sixty on MGM, plus two twenty five on DraftKings plus two sixty and a color up other couple spots, So I don't know. The money line might look good.
Especially if Gabriel doesn't play because Jalen Daniels is out, which is a big reason why Oklahoma is favored in this game. Most likely out, I guess I should say, because he hasn't been officially ruled out, like they'll never do that.
But he ain't even play. But Jason Bean, as you mentioned before when we were talking on stages, a pretty good, you know, backup quarterback, one of the better ones in the nation. So what do you think of this game?
Yeah that I took a drink as you were talking to signify metaphorically wedding my beak on that Jay Money line. The Gabriel status is very important because Davis Bevell, Oklahoma's backup stinks. The difference between Gabriel and him. It's it's like ten points. And it's not because Gabriel is as good as Bryce Young. It's because the backup is that bad. Brent Venable should be embarrassed for like leaving the QB two spot that bad when all the players were transferring
all off season. You could have signed a billion different guys that were better than that kid. That's an unforced ara that was shooting yourself in the foot. But they can't help it now. So Gabriel is his status is key for Oklahoma. But like you were, mentioning. Like we were talking about on the stages, Daniels is not Jalen Daniels for Kansas is not going to play. But it's
the opposite scenario for Kansas. Kansas had one of the better backup quarterbacks in the entire FBS in Jason Bean, who started the first nine games for them last year and was North Texas starter before that. Jason Bean has started numerous games in his college career. You call him a two year starter coming into this year. He has a good arm, and he was a track star in high school. He's one of the by any report, one
of the fastest players on the Kansas football team. This stuff that Leopold likes to do with all the motion and then getting the quarterback out on the perimeter, that's what Bean wants to do. I mean, there's a reason that he was absolutely shredding TCU. I'm not going to say that he was better than Daniels, but in that game, Daniel did not do much in the first half, and then Bean came in and Kansas was not missing. Being did throw one interception in that second half, but on
almost every other draft his scored a touching. I think he threw for four touchdowns and only in the last two quarters Jason Bean can play for me. I downgrade Kansas very very small there that you know, half a point or a point, whereas again with Gabriel to Bevel it's ten or eleven something like that. So keep an eye on that one. The other major major point is Oklahoma's defense is an abomination a couple a couple of stats for you and just crazy, almost unthinkable that a
defense coordinated by Brent Venables could be this bad. But Kansas saw you know. The comparing contrast between the Kansas offense and the Oaklahoma defense. Kansas offense number twenty six in success rate, number ten in isoppp which is an explosiveness measure, and number thirty two in points per scoring opportunity. Here's the Oklahoma defense's rankings in the exact same categories.
So Oklahoma's defense ranks number ninety eighth in success rate, number fifty one in explosiveness against, and one hundred and first in preventing the opponent from scoring when they're in the scoring opportunities. The Sooners also rank one hundred and twenty fifth out of one thirty one in tackling rates, so they can't.
Tackle any anything. I mean, I know that as a Texas fan for the last decade. Is tackling is just so enormous. You have to do it. You know, you give guys ten fifteen extra yards by missing attackle It's ridiculous.
This defense, it's what's gonna call it sun Belt level. The sun Belts good this year, and that would have been an insult to the sun Belt. This is it's an absolute embarrassment. Yes, if Dylan Gabriel doesn't play in this game, the Kansas Jayhawks are winning it out right. I'll just say that if Gabriel plays, we'll have a game for sure.
But this game was close last year, wasn't it.
Oh? Yeah, Kansas led into the fourth quarter against This is the one where.
Like Caleb Williams has out of the running backs hand to get that purst down.
That was the game.
Yeah, Kansas. Kansas controlled that, I mean throughout until until the fourth courter, and yeah, they came back. That game is hilarious. Was like, uh, it was in Lawrence and Oklahoma's like thirty eight point favor or something, and this one is in Norman and it's thirty points last or whatever. But yeah, to me, this line it's too high. I mean, like it's even despite the thirty points you know shift or whatever. Kansas is, Like I said, absolutely legitimate opponent.
Absolutely could have beaten TCU last week despite losing their starting quarterback. I'm still upset about it. Very last drive. Two very obvious penalties happened on the last two plays that were not called. One of them was the horse collar thing on the third down and then the more egregious one a very clear pass interference on fourth down that the rest just didn't throw a flat. But anyway, either way, Kansas played with TCU the entire time. It was, you know, a coin flip type game, and TCU is.
I mean, we'll find out by the end of the year they're either the best team in the Big Twelve or the second best team in the Big Twelve. I think we'll figure that out. Uh, maybe we'll have to wait until the Big Twelve title game. But them in Texas, I think they're gonna have a tango. I'm sorry to disco on Oklahoma State, but for me, those are the two teams. But this Oklahoma team, they can't defend anyone,
they can't tackle against anyone. The only way they can derive offense is when Dylan Gabriel is one hundred percent healthy and they're able to hit the downfield shots. But I will say even though Kansas's secondary, it's not a leech for sure, And don't take what I'm about to say as that they are. They are opportunistic. Though Kansas's
defensive backs can flip the field. They're I mean, you can think of them essentially as like a sort of a homeless man's version of the USC thing where they can you know, they are able to get the interceptions and flip it a little bit. Oklahoma needs Dylan Gabriel in this game. We don't know if he's gonna play it. It's sounding more optimistic on that side. But again, either way, I'm taking the nine points and if Gabriel is not playing, it's rock shock outright for sure.
It's gonna be a fun week, another fun week of college football. Good luck and all your bets. You can follow me on Twitter at Bogman Sports. You'll follow Thor at thor ku Thor. What is the schedule for this week? Remind everyone where they can find all your work. Obviously, you can go to Twitter to find all of it, But what do you got coming up here?
I got my ten best bets coming up on vetting pro as. What would be when you guys hear this? Maybe today on Thursday, and then on Saturday, I have my ninety minute live show with Mike Farrell where people can come and watch live and then also ask questions. Mike and I answer any questions you have about the betting card, and then we handicap as many games as we can get you know, get through or whatever, and also give out our favorite props you know, as well
as the sides and the totals obviously. And then on the day after, you know, every every college football Saturday, on Sunday, me and Tomas Viola sit down after the lines have dropped the new lines for the coming week, go through those lines. I've run my numbers Sunday morning, comparing my lines against the Vegas lines. Are there any games that you should bet early? Are there any injuries that are affecting the lines? Just sort of going through
the card in that way. If there's any angles early on in the week to check that out as well.
Check them out and good luck in your bets. Week seven. Wee will see you guys, next week, take it easy.
Everybody