Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. It is time for Week six of the NFL season. The time is just flying. Bahi, guys. I can't believe we are already five weeks in here. More over than that, I can't believe that my Jets are three and two. We don't get three wins until December. I'm feeling good right now, and I'm feeling great because we have a fantastic show for you guys today. Of course, as always here with me none other than the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman.
And today we have a very very special guest with us from the Around the NFL podcast, Greg Rosenthal. Greg, thank you so much for being here. How are you doing today?
I'm doing great.
Although I can't seem to get away from Jets fan hosts of the podcast I'm doing today, That's true.
Nope, you are stuck with us. We're everywhere. It's a miserable contingent that finally has somehow.
Right now, they're feeling themselves. Y'all are into it, and I'm with you kind of. We'll put a pin in that for later.
Yeah, we will be. As you know, this is the time, this is I know what's coming this week. We got Packers minus in this game, and this is absolutely we're gonna get right off the bat here, starting with that one, because last week I said, Miami Nonna, they're gonna take them down. Two good things can't happen to the Jets in a row. Sure enough, it did. But the only thing less likely to happen to the Jets is three
good things in a row. I'm shocked that they have a team website because they can't string three ws together. And now you have this chance here as seven point dogs in this game, and I'm looking at it and I'm like, we should be competitive based on how we've played so far this season, we should be competitive in this one. And that means the bottom is about to fall out. Matt, what do you think in this game? Is it gonna be happening here in this spot or
are they gonna be able to cover? Because if there's any team to be playing right now, it's the Packers. That overtime win over the Patriots with Bailey Zappi and then you'll lose outright to the Giants. They're not going Things are not going great in Green Bay right now.
Yeah, A man as we talked about previously. I feel like I've been too high on the Packers up until this point in the season. And you know, I always try to sort of contextualize and explain a way why I haven't adjusted them down in my power ratings. It's like, well, they were missing their tackles, and they didn't have their number one receiver and their their top cornerback was out, you know, But like this is it like if they don't do well against the Jets, I need to stop
making excuses for them. And I've I've already bumped them down to my power ratings, but this feels like a I don't know, a come down spot for the Jets and a bounce back spot for the Packers. And just you know, Aaron Rodgers off of a loss is forty twenty one and one against the spread. Aaron Rodgers at lambeau Field is sixty six, thirty five and three against the spread. Aaron Rodgers is a favorite is ninety seven,
sixty six and three against the spread. Like he is just sort of like like in that triangulation of Aaron Rodgers sweet spots, And you know, I think a lot of this game does come down to Aaron Rodgers. But I think also it comes down to that Packers defense going to it's the Jets pass offense, which I think has overperformed. Like Zach Wilson has been somewhat mediocre for the Jets in his two starts, like he's been non horrible, which is an improvement from where he was last year.
But I'm just I'm not buying it. I think the Packers have a clear advantage on defense against Wilson, at least that's what I'm seeing in our our Fantasy pros unit power rankings. I have Wilson as the number twenty six quarterback in the league. The Packers defense, it hasn't it hasn't played up to its potential, but I think it's still I have it as the number eight unit. I have the secondary is the number four secondary.
In the league.
On the players they have, and I know I've never played, I know they have. That's the thing, Like there's still priors built into this, Like they were a good unit last year. You figure that it's.
Somewhere that.
They weren't that good and they give up a lot on the ground, and I'm in with the Jets offense. The thing that really strikes me every week is how open guys are. It really looks like the forty nine ers offense. And I'm not a believer in Zach Wilson yet, but he's made a few plays in the last few weeks that's more impressive than anything he did as a rookie. I think he'll probably still kill you, and this could
be one of the games that he will. He'll have some really down weeks, but guys are open, and it's like the guys are open like they are in the forty nine ers offense, except you have a quarterback who can throw a deep out and can create a little I think there are a talented team. Maybe I'm just doing too many podcasts with Dan hansis my host. He's convinced me I don't think these two teams are that
different talent wise. And so seven or seven and a half feels feels like a lot like I wouldn't trust the Jets to win, but it just feels like it'll come down to the end and that the Jets will run the ball and kind of keep it close that way.
Okay, it feels like a lot in that if you focus on only what's happened this year. Yeah, but with you this year, if you but if you take into account that one of these guys is Aaron Rodgers and one of them definitely is not in that the Jets last year were horrible and the Packers last year were really good, and we should still take that fact into account. I just think in.
This game fit seven points. If it was just off this year, I feel like it'd be three or so. The Packers offense, though, has been getting better each and every week. So that's actually more of my concern if you were back in the Jets, is that I think the Packers' offense, their struggles have been a little overstated.
It's a really good running game.
The passing games can get better every week, and it wouldn't surprise me if they put thirty up in this game and then and then you're chasing a lot of points the Jets.
So one more thing, one more thing in this Like the Jets offensive line is really banged up, and I know that they got Dwayne Brown back, but they're still without McKai Beckton, George Fant, Max Mitchell. I think that Zach Wilson is going to be under heavy pressure. Shawn gary In, Presntsmith so I think that will keep the the sort of forty nine Ers style of offense from functioning that full capacity.
I will say there, it is certainly not hard to draw the connections as to why they look like the forty nine Ers offense. But I the way I see it, I'm looking at the Patriots and how they were able to just Romandre Stevenson and Damian Harris their way into overtime in that game. And then the next week you
have the Giants. Saquon Barkley. You can lean heavily on him with a GIMPI mac Jones because this team is thirtieth in rush dvoa on defense, Michael, They're bad against the run, and you know the Jets are gonna want to run the football. That's how they're gonna help protect Zach Wilson. Again, I am going into this game fully
knowing what is going to happen. I already have the final score in front of me, and it is the It is simply the fact that I will bet on the Jets this week because I will tell myself that seven points is too many with a Packers team that can't cover to save their lives and is significantly down from Land year and they were about to blow the Jets out by forty. I know it's coming, and I'm still gonna bet on the Jets in this.
Yeah, I don't know. I don't think the Jets can run the way that the Patriots can run, in the way that Saguon Barkley can run.
That's fair. Although brisall look good. Michael Carter is a good back, they don't have the same line. But at some point, I hear you on the historical trends. At some point, I feel like you gotta start seeing it this year, and I think their offense has shown that. But to me, show me the impressive Packers game this year, I guess the Bears game and even then.
That that wasn't a game that was one quarter.
Yeah, well, and that they did they did what they had to do, and that was week two. But we're we're three weeks in a row here of just like okay, and I just don't see their defense as a particularly cohesive unit. They're always pointing at each other. You're like, oh what happened. They're not a complicated defense at all.
They're just sort of a basic, like we're going to play you, straight up defense and yet they make a lot of mental mistakes and I think you can kind of out physical them, to use a terrible football term. So I just don't trust the defense as heavy favorites in any situation.
All that is fair. Just one final item on this, like show me the impressive when Like I was impressed with him going on the road to Tampa Bay and winning that game.
Right, but Tampa was missing their top three receivers that day. It was defensively at least, it was a weird game. That was also the first game they were without Donovan Smith. Now that you know they've tried to adjust, it was just there was a lot going on this It's a weird game.
It was a weird game. But winning on the road in that situation, like, I still think that was impressive.
I just want to acknowledge the fact that we were in Week five of a week six now of an NFL season in the year twenty twenty two, and we're talking about the Jets potentially being on the same talent level as the Packers. This is what I wanted to see from this team. There is a trend upwards. It might be slight, but it is something. This is more hope that I've had in a decade with this team
right now. But let's move on to another team that actually kind of had some hope going into maybe not going into this season, but after the first couple of weeks, started off real strong and now have slipped the last two games. The Jags going up against the Colts in this one. They're two point two and a half to two point dogs in Indy, where they have they have owned the Colts in the past couple of times that we've seen these two teams play. We saw it earlier
this season already. This is an early second matchup. But what do you guys make of the Jags. Is this a team that maybe had a strong start and that was a little bit of a mirage or are you saying they lost to the Eagles? Everybody so far has done that this year. It was a monsoon and then the Texans game that to me, you can make the case that that's just one of those weird divisional games.
They haven't beaten the Texans in four years. That's eight matchups right there now, nine and it's just those divisional opponents that have your numbers sometimes, like how we always see the Cardinals play the forty nine ers tough and the forty niners and Rams. Is that the case or is Jacksonville You're going, okay, we need to all pump the brakes on what we saw from this team in the first couple of weeks.
Greg, I think offensively, you should pump the brakes. Lawrence is a little erratic with his accuracy. I don't think they have receivers that can really win on the outside, Like everything's over the middle of the field, so I think they're a little limited there. But it's a good running game. It's an okay offensive line. I just think that kind of caps their ceiling as like a top ten, you know, really dangerous type of team. But I love
them in this game. I mean, this would be one of my favorite picks because I think the attributes that helped them embarrass the Colts last year in Week eighteen and then shut them out five weeks ago are still there. And it's basically their defensive line is the best group in the game, and that the Colts offensive line is a total mess. And yes, the Colts do have two receivers back in this game that they didn't have in
Week two. Pittman and Pierce are their top two receivers, they'll be competitive, but at no point in the last four weeks of the Colts really graduated to me from anything but the number thirty you know, thirty one offense in the league, number thirty two, So to me that it's a mismatch there. And like I like the Jags defense a lot better than the Colts offense. It's enough to believe, like there's a reason they've destroyed them the
last two times. I think they're a better team. I think they match up well, and I would take them.
Now, what do you think?
Yeah, I have like a slight lean towards Indy in my projections, but like there's no way I'm actually betting it because I feel like I feel I haven't adjusted them down enough in my power ratings and I know that, and like to Greg's point, I think that matchup in the trenches really does benefit the Jags. Like I've been impressed with their defensive line, and more importantly, I've been horrified by the Colts offensive line, which used to be like one of the real strengths of that team and
then now is just it's in fire. So I don't don't want any part of backing the colts here.
Matt, you don't have to answer this truthfully, but who is older you or Matt Ryan?
Uh Me?
Definitely me.
I was.
Yeah, I was at BC when Ryan was there, and actually yeah, so he he he had like friends who lived in the same apartment building linemen. Some of his linemen lived in the apartment that was right above the one that Eden and I had together, And on Saturday nights, they would go in there and they would play like
the like rock Star, like you remember that game. Yeah, So they would be playing rock Star till like four in the morning, and Matt Ryan would be up there hanging out with them, and like I didn't I didn't want to go knock on the door and be like, hey, you know you guys, can you sort of like kill it, like just you know, I'm trying to sleep. So Eden would go do it. So like that's my that's my impression or not my impression, but like that that.
On a game night. Was he play in the next night the next day?
No, this would be after after the game, so it would be like games on Saturday, and then Saturday night they would be partying in the apartment above us.
I love how you would just send your now wife who for the audience, this is not a physical you would not describe etan as physically intimidating in stature, and you're sending up there there.
She would will willingly go up there on her own.
But that should be you Stephan up there. But I asked the question is could you honestly say that you would fare that much worse at quarterback right now than what's going on in Indy? The is this is just this is just bad right now. This is now the place where quarterbacks go to die.
Honestly, this is surprising because, uh, I mean, I thought Ryan still had something left after last year, and he didn't look bad in the preseason, Like he didn't look great, but he didn't. He didn't look bad. He looked like sort of Philip Rivers level competent. And that's where I thought we would see within this offense, and we haven't gotten that at all.
Now.
If he was in a different situation, yeah he'd look different, but he's the last quarterback you want right now with that offensive line. And Tony Romo was pretty strong on that point in the in the game that they upset the Chiefs of Like, yeah, yeah, he's a veteran in everything, but it's like hard sledting him picking up this offense and like getting on the same page in terms of protection with his offensive line and things like that, making pre snap calls and who.
Knows that might be a coaching thing, that might just be. It's a tough fit. But you haven't seen any upswing.
That's why I hear you on a stay away and look, Vegas has not adjusted the Colts down too much either. Generally each week there, I'm surprised how they're either favored or close to being favored in these games. So that surprises me because this season it seems pretty.
Clear to me the Jaggers they're a better team.
Yeah.
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make some money. Use the promo code Betting Pros when you sign up for a Sleeper account today, and Sleeper will automatically credit your account one hundred dollars to get you started. In terms of conditions apply see Sleeper dot com for details. You know we have a couple games here with some quarterback controversies that are starting to brew that really shouldn't be controversies yet, and yet I feel like we're all just bored, and so we're talking about them.
But all of a sudden, here Bailey, Zappy and Mac Jones, same as the Dak Prescott Cooper rush thing, you know, the actual answer. But then you're looking at what we've seen the last couple of weeks now, and you're starting to hear some of those people saying, oh, hey, maybe Mac Jones isn't it, and maybe they should be riding with ZAPPI I don't think that's the case at all. But they are three point dogs going into Cleveland here.
And while I'm no longer giving Bill Belichick the benefit of the doubt where I'm saying, oh, it's Belichick, he'll figure it out, but I don't trust this Browns team at all. It still goes against my core philosophy of betting football, which is, don't bet on teams with an elf on their fifty yard line. And I just don't think this Browns team is as good as the stats
are kind of saying it easy. If you look at their DVA their offensive DVOA is way more impressive than the eye test would lead you to believe, and I think that's heavily Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt here, what do you think about this game?
Matt, Yeah, I'm on the Patriots in this spot. Totally appealing to Greg's homerism here with this pick. But Kevin Stefanski, he's eight and sixteen against the spread as a favorite, and like that. I feel like that actually makes sense, Like when his team is in a situation to play with the lead or like they should be winning a game, they play much more conservatively and that allows teams to
get the back door recover. And I think this is a game where given the run defense, the horrible run defense of the of the Browns, we see Ramandre Stevenson just totally dominate and both teams are really going to want to run the ball. But the Browns have the worst rush defense out of this matchup because they have the league's worst rush defense, you know, like thirty two in rush EPA, thirty two in rush DVA thirty two and adjusted lineyards And you know, I know, no Damien
Harrison this game. I don't think it's going to matter. I think that just means more of Remandree Stephenson, who might actually be the better back anyway. I think he's maybe the more complete back. He's the more bruising back, you know, even though he's a big guy, he's still you know, has a three down skill set. He can
still catch the ball pretty well. So and by the way, the Browns are number twenty eight in defensive DVA against running backs like through the air, So I think whether it's Stevenson on the ground or as a receiver on checkdown passes, I think he's going to dominate. So with the Patriots relying more on the ground game, I think they keep this pretty close. And I have this at one point seventy five versus the two and a half or three that you see in the market.
Yeah, I'm with you, and it's more of a I'm on the Pats this week, and I haven't been high on them in general this year, but I think you can really see a Patriots like maturation from this team, where each and every week they're kind of figuring out what they do well. I actually thought mac Jones threw it great on the game against the Ravens. He got hurt, and defensively, they're starting to figure out their rotations. You know,
Belichick plays a round with personnel. They've almost have too many skill position players because none of them are great, and they're rotating like nine of them, and I think they're starting to maybe whittle that down. I wouldn't be shocked to see way less Nelson Aguilar like maybe even in an active and more Taekwon Thornton, John new Smith getting hurt might not be the worst thing for them. I think they will miss Damien Harris just because I think it's better to have two than one, and he's
a little more explosive than Stevenson. But you're right, Stevenson could have a monster game. And there's just something about this Browns team and the way that they find ways to lose.
And I also have last.
Year's game between these two teams in my head. I think that's somewhat in just because it's the same coach as some similar personnel and that was forty five to seven, and Belichick just like gave it, gave it to Stefanski.
Now, I know this might surprise you guys because it's very out of character for him, but Bill Belichick has been very noncommittal about Mac Jones's injury status. Here so far limited in practice today, but we don't know who's starting at quarterback. Is that going to affect anything for you guys, or is the difference kind of marginal. It's not like Mac Jones' is Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady or Lamar Jackson where you're gonna be like that's a significant adjustment to the line.
It is a significant adjustment, Like one is a third string rookie quarterback and one was a guy who was taken in the first round, who is you know, like a championship winning quarterback in college and who did pretty well as a rookie last year. Like, there's a significant difference. But I think it's gonna be Zappy, And if it's not, then it's just like best case scenario, if it actually ends up being Mac Jones, if he's healthy enough to be on the field, this line would easily move towards
the Patriots if he played. So I think it's Zapi, but if it is, if it is Mac, then even better at getting the bet.
Now, I don't think people who have been on the Zappi train, and it's happening locally too, so that's disproving what I'm about to say is like, did you guys watch did they watch the games? Because he's kind of playing on easy mode. He seemed very confused in the first game, but he was coming in off the bench last week. No one got near him in terms of a pass rush from Detroit. On the times where they did do play action, it was mostly running, like mac
Jones is a much better player. And yet I think the Patriots have a real chance to win this game. I like them to win this game even with Zapy, So if Jones was in, then yeah, it's gravy and I would like him even more.
Yeah. I'm not saying that experts or people who are learned in the football realm are saying Zapi should be the option instead of mac Jones. I'm saying that it is the zeitgeist of the general Twitter conversation among the mass is you know, you're uninformed, average NFL fan, You're Jerry Jones type. That's what I'm saying is making that kind of opinion there fair enough.
You're throwing it out there though, so you got to take ownership, that's you.
I am just reporting the facts, my friend. I am reporting the facts of the situation, and the situation also has the Panthers as ten point dogs going into Los Angeles. I almost said Saint Louis there, But they're going in to play the Rams this weekend. And do you give any credit to the new coach or at least the fired coach, bump, It's not like they've upgraded.
Steve Wilks is.
At the helm now, which means Josh Rosen might start this week. But I can't. I don't want to lay ten with the Rams right now because they have not done anything to inspire me lately. But the Panthers are not great now. You want to talk about backup quarterbacks here, PJ Walker coming in this game the only that might actually be a case where maybe he can go out and be better than Baker Mayfield. Though, what do you think?
I like the Panthers to keep it closer just on the principle. I guess I don't have many principles, but you know I do the picks every week on NFL dot Com, and it's like, don't give bad teams points. It's the NFL like a ton of points. And the Rams are a bad team. I mean, they're one of the worst offenses in the league right now. And I
think they can coach around it. But it's to me, it's very interesting to see the comparison to a week ago where the Panthers were only six and a half point underdogs, to the forty nine Ers, who to me are just clearly a superior team right now on both sides of the ball, to the Rams defensively and offensively. I think the Rams defense is fine, It's why I think the Rams will probably win this game. But the Rams offensive line is a mess, and they have more injuries again this week.
It's Brian Allen's like injured again.
David Edwards is in the concussion protocol, like they haven't fixed things, and the Panthers defensive personnel's okay.
It worries me j C.
Horn might not play in this game, and he's their best player in the secondary, and they lost Jeremy and so they have a lot of injuries too. It's like this wouldn't be my first pick in general, but I would feel much comfortable not giving ten and a half points to this Rams team. I say, Steve Wilks, gives
them a little boost. You fire the defensive coordinator. Their defensive personnel's okay, like they could hold the Rams under twenty, and then at that point it's like you gotta win seventeen to six, which is possible, but it's like, I don't know.
I wouldn't be picking that. I'd pick the Panthers.
My problem is Ben mcadoo's key card is still working in that facility, and that's a big red flag for me.
It's been ugly. It's been tough watching the Panthers offense. I'm with you, and the Rams defense is fully capable of carrying them for a week. They played fine last week, for instance, against the Cowboys.
Matt Any thoughts on this one.
Yeah, we talked about this on Tuesday, and I think at that time the line was eleven and a half and we were talking about, God, this is such an ugly game, but it feels like one that I'm destined to pick. Now that it's gone to ten, I really don't want any part of it. And part of me is like, oh, man, I didn't get that closing line.
I should have grabbed it at eleven and a half and I'd be feeling really great right now, except I wouldn't feel great because I would be betting on the Panthers, which, like in theory, like there's I think I think this is the right side. I think Greg is right. Like I have this projected at nine point twenty five, and so I probably should have bet it at eleven and a half, especially through the key number of ten. That
would have made sense based on the numbers. But this is just such a disgusting team, and like I really think that they are one of the worst units in the league. And as bad as Baker Mayfield, as bad as he has been, I think he's been the worst quarterback in the league, he still might be better than PJ. Walker, you know, Like I think Walker isn't a huge set down, but he might be you know, like maybe this team is actually even worse than we think, Like maybe they
just start the tank now, you know. So I kind of don't want to be on a team that looks like it's at the front runner for the number one pick, you know. So I don't know. I like, I see Greg's side, and I think I think it is the right side overall. It's just I didn't have the fortitude to do it.
It's also the same time as the Chief Spills game, so it's like you really want to be distracting yourself with this nonsense.
Yes exactly, And you know, you bring up a great point there, because from a battle of just an absolutely horrible offense with a horrible quarterback to going to one of the best units in the league. Here in their game, the Seahawks are taking on the Cardinals, and the goat, Geno Smith is a two and a half point home dog in this contest. It's the second straight Bird matchup for the Cardinals, which I think is definitely something worth
mentioning there. The Cardinals and the Seahawks. We talked about it earlier with the division rivals, that the familiarity they play each other tough. The Cardinals normally give the Seahawks a pretty decent game, but that was back when the Seahawks were good, and then now the seaho are just suddenly good again this season, just by no one thinking that they could be. Can you know Smith sustain this for any reasonable length of time?
Yeah, I mean great, I know you're the world's foremost Geno Smith backer. But I mean I'm I'm not I'm not far back spot.
It's a good spot. I've cast it.
I don't want to cast in those chips, but I feel like now's the time to do it.
Yeah, I mean he's top three in a lot of different metrics that you would look at, even going back to last year, like when he made three spot starts for Russell Wilson, Yeah, he was top He's top three with an eight point five Justine arts per attempt, composite EPA, and completion percentage over expectation. He's top three there. I mean like it's it's his kitchen and he's cooking in it in a way that Russell Wilson never was able
to do. And for the season, the Seahawks are top four and most passing efficiency metrics, drop back EPA, drop back success rate past TVOA, and they're going against a Cardinals defense thom as you mentioned that's really bad bottom six and all those metrics, and he's got, you know, I think a top ten pass catching unit, you know, anchored with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett going against a totally outmatched secondary and you know, as wild as wild
as this is to say, because Kyler Murray is the better, Like objectively, he is the better quarterback, right Like, I think he's cleanly a top ten quarterback GINO as well as he's played, he I don't think you can like put him in the top ten yet. But Smith has been every bit as good as as Murray and maybe
better than Murray through five games. And I think that's because of the playmaking support he gets from his receivers and the play calling support he gets from his coaches, because Kyler Murray hasn't gotten any of that play calling support. It's basically in the second half when it's like, hey, Kyler, go do something, and whenever the Cliff Kingsburray shackles have been taken off of Kyler Murray that that Cardinals offense is finally able to do something. So I do like
the Seahawks in this spot. If the numbers, if the numbers three, if the number two and a half where we were seeing them, I think this is a pick them.
Like.
I think this should just be straight up pick them. So I do like the Seahawks a lot in this spot.
Oh, you're making me feel better about this one. This was one where I would be a stay away. I just don't have any feel like the eye test to me says the Cardinals have improved on both sides the last couple of weeks, that they're getting it together and that's like a low bar. But they just seem like a more average operation on both sides. That it's not a lot of deep shots offensively, but they one really kyl Of really won from the pocket against Carolina, which
I thought was good. It wasn't him kind of making things up as he go along. They were very competitive last week. Their defense, which I thought was just a tire fire to start the season, definitely looks better with JJ Watt back, and now they're playing Simmons again full time, and he just like, look okay, And I've become a Seahawks fan this year because of Gino, and it does worry me, Like Gino can't play much better than he he's played the.
Last three weeks.
You said, like you said he's better better than Kyler, Well, yeah, for sure. I mean he's been better than God, He's been better than like really, the only quarterbacks you could make a case that have been better than him this year are Josh Allen and Mahomes and maybe Hurts and Lamar.
But like that's it, Like that's that's the whole list.
And yet the last three weeks it's like you lose to the Falcons, you scrape by against the Lions in a game in the forties and you lose to a kind of a bumbling Saints team. So it's like he's having to play at that high a level just for those results. Like, is bothersome to me? Because is he going to stay at that level forever? That's a it's a lot to ask. I ended up picking the Cardinals in this game, but I don't feel good about it either way. I just feel like they have a little
more talent. The Seahawks defense just seems Yeah, it's like that. I just have a hard time picking them in any game because of their defense.
Yeah.
I mean, I get to the Lions of the highest scoring team in the league right now, but you at them without Amanra or DeAndre Swift put up forty five points on you. That's a red flag, right, That's not ideal in any sense. Although who knew? We all thought that this Seahawks team was gearing up for a tank athon, and it turned out that Pete Cawlees knew that he had to get rid of Russell Wilson and bring a quarterback who could actually handle the pass heavy offense he
wanted to put out there the whole time. Who knew guys, real quick, remember when you're looking for free picks and sports betting advice, Bettingpros dot com has you covered with tips from over one hundred and fifty experts to make it easy for you to cash out. Download the app to get sports betting alerts. You'll get notified of favorable bets based online movements, consensus picks from the most accurate experts,
and vetted systems in play. Betting Pros monitors all of the major sports books, most accurate experts, and top systems to identify the best betting opportunities. So download today in the Apple or Google Play stores. Now, the next game up here, guys. Bothers me that this is the primetime game and not the Bills chief game, which we'll get
to after. But I do understand why. I understand the rules of networking and how the Chiefs Bills game was one thousand percent protected from this, and so NBC was like, oh, well, let's get the Eagles and the Cowboys and fource feed everybody and at least good NFC East matchup this time around instead of some of the ones that we've had to endure over the past couple of years. Here, but the Eagles are laying six right now in this spot against the Cowboys. Looks like it's still going to be
Cooper Rush. Dak Prescott's trying as hard as he can to get back on the field. Here. He reminds me of a story my dad would tell me of the time when he was in high school playing football and he broke his arm and he cut off the cast with a saws all so he could play in the big game against Seaton Hall that week, and they got destroyed, but he scored the only touchdown. But that's what Dak
Prescott's doing right now. He's seeing Cooper Rush out there winning games, and he's like, oh God, I got to get back on the field no matter how bad my hand is right now. Can the Cowboys do something here? The Eagles, they're they're obviously one of the great teams right now. They're they're the only five and zero team. I do think these birds are real, but I am not too optimistic because they aren't that great against the spread.
They're letting teams back into games. Six points feels like a lot in this spot against the Cowboys team that has not been bad even without the quarterback.
Yeah, I mean I'm on the Eagles in this spot, but I first betted at five. I bet it in the look ahead market. I don't want to touch it at six, so you know I will stay away from it at the current number. But I do have this projected at six point seventy five, so you know, slight lean at this current number towards the Eagles. But it's not like I'm rushing out to bet it at this point.
Yeah, I'm a little worried here, as you were talking.
My first instinct and it feels like probably what the public's kind of think too, is like it six is too much to give to the Cowboys, like the Cowboys are too good.
It actually gets worse now. I just checked the line to move to six and a half.
Okay, so I guess I'm wrong. Maybe people are going for the Eagles. I don't really know, but because my first instinct is just like that's too much, the Cowboys have just earned my respect. But I also could see this as a spot where Eagles are at home.
I don't think they played their best last week.
They are capable of running right through that Cowboys defensive line. They're so good rushing the passer, but they haven't played against an offensive line this good. What makes them good is that they have four guys who can do it. I mean Lawrence and Parsons. That's the best tandem there is yet Odigi Zua is getting after it and like Dante Fowler was getting in the mix last week. They really have four or five guys. Armstrong has been good
for them, so it's a great matchup up front. It's just hard to imagine Cooper rush and then winning the battles on the outside.
James Bradbury's played great.
So I'm kind of talking myself out of my first instinct, which in the one that's on NFL dot Com, which is Cowboys. I think losing by five, like I pretty much played it right down the middle, but keeping it under that six number just because their defense is so good.
But my heart's my heart's not in it.
If I think if I if I was forced to actually uh put money on it, and I'm not allowed to work for the NFL, so it's all hypothetical for me. I probably feel better about the Eagles ultimately, if I had to pick one.
I hate laying decently large points with a divisional With a divisional matchup like It just feels like in the NFL, when you have familiarity with your opponent like that, you're you're so much more prone to this game being closer than you think, just because these teams.
Although there is like track track records, I do think matter in this case. And I could be wrong, but I feel like the Eagles have did a nice job last year against Syria against the Cowboys.
But might be talking out of my butt.
Yeah, I mean, and to Tom to your point about divisions, you know, like home field advantage doesn't.
Like I want to correct myself. The Cowboys smoked them twice. Why was when they've rested their starters in week eighteen, so it means nothing. But they did smoke them earlier in the season before the Eagles got going, So I'm an idiot.
I just wanted to correct me.
So all right, thanks for then, thanks for the update there. We'll let it slide on you this time. You've got a lot to think about. You don't have to worry about the Cowboys and the Eagles matching up because, let's face it, that hasn't been a matchup with looking at for a little while.
We could we could edit that out, but we won't. We're just gonna leave it the way it was.
Yeah, I'm fine.
I'm fine with that. I'm fine with it.
It's a different Eagles team though, But I wouldn't feel I wouldn't feel good.
This Cowboys team is too good.
I feel like they're like, this is not one of those NFCS matchups. This is a great matchup to these are if I was doing power rankings, like considering Dak will come back, I would say these are two of the most you know, three or four most likely teams to make the Super.
Bowl in the NFC. That would I would put them in that group.
Right, Okay, let's that's an interesting statement. Let's tom, We're gonna go on the little side road here for us. Yes, okay, so three or four most teams in the NFC to make the Super Bowl? Yeah, all right, So let's assume that Tampa Bay is up there, right, Yeah, yeah, obviously Seattle.
I don't know if assuming Tampa Bay, they've they've got some The Eagles, certainly, I'm assuming they're up there because they were my Super Bowl championship pick before the year, which is feeling good right now.
Yeah, so you have but you know, you have the Eagles and the Cowboys up there, assuming the normal return of Dak Prescott. Uh so, Tampa Bay would be in the running to be in the top four. San Francisco would be in the running to be in the top four. Uh. You know, but then after that it gets a little it gets a little dicey. I would have Green Bay up there, but some people want it based on how they've looked.
So fifth, So that the list you just said would have been my list. I would have had the Eagles first, and I would have the Cowboys, and it's a you know, whoever wins at the I mean, this is a big game. It is really important because the ODDA divisions get is good and in San Francisco would probably be next, and then Tampa would be would be you know, Tampa, and the NFC East loser probably Dallas would be fourth, you know, third and fourth.
For me, Okay, I still maintain my preseason take that the forty nine ers are a bad football team.
I don't know, no, I just.
I will never I will never trust them. They managed to luff box themselves out of every situation. The defense very real.
Uh.
My take was mostly based off of the fact that I don't trust Trey Lance at all. Obviously that ship is now sailed, but Jimmy g is still not a good quarterback and you're still winning games in spite of him and not because of him, and that keeps them from being a team that can really ascend to that top level.
For me, yeah, yeah, you know, I think I think Garoppolo is serviceable within the Shanahan's game. Like, yeah, I don't think he would work well with a lot of other coaches, but I think he's good enough within that system.
Yeah, there's a reason no one else wanted him.
Well it's the injury too, that didn't help.
Yeah, but still the team is better with him at the helm than Trey Lance. I'll give them that. The people preseason and we're going, oh, this is a super Bowl team with Trey Lance. No, you ain't. You're not a super Bowl team.
And I wanted to see.
It at least. I don't think we can, Like we know, we haven't seen anything.
We don't know, we don't know, but I I think it's worth not like people gave Baker so many passes last year for playing through that injury. I mean, Jimmy Garoppolo was playing through an injured shoulder that required surgery, and he played the worst football of his life, I would say, and.
They still almost made the Super Bowl.
So if you just get like I think you can get a better version of Jimmy g which is still boring, and I agree with you. I'd probably put them a tick below the top team is because of him, But to me, they would be in the rest of the team is so good. I love their offensive, you know, pass catchers that they would be in that like three to four range for me in the NFC.
But the Cowboys would too.
The Cowboys have probably like improve their odds in my mind of making a playoff run more than just about any team because of how they've looked.
Yeah, Greg quick, quick aside here. So Dak Prescott coming back, what do you think the difference is in terms of like points added to the team between Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush. Would you say four points? Five points?
Yeah, that seems like what a quality starting quarterback difference to a good backup would be. I think I think it's very significant. I'm not really projecting forward that Dak's gonna struggle because he struggled in Week one. I'm I'm looking at what they've done offensively and being encouraged that you put Dak in there and it's gonna be better and hopefully better than it was down the stretch last season too.
Yeah, So I'm I'm eyeballing this now looking at my power ratings, and I think it's five points. But Cooper rush Is recent has made me reevaluate that just a little bit. But I think it's five points. And if we add that five points of Dak coming back to this team, then yeah, I think they are probably power rated above the Rams, above the Packers, close to the forty nine ers, not quite to the level of the Eagles, but they're in that mix with Dak. If they are in that mix.
Improved too, Yeah, it's crazy they Parsons is like a transformational guy, and they have great continuity and youth at the same time in the secondary, and Quinn is like he's just mixing it up. I think they have, not that they're patriotsy at all, but their defense reminds me a little bit this sweet spot. When you have a good coach and you have youth and continuity at the same time, you can do a lot of things. Changing what you're going to do week to week, and they've
been I think, very difficult to prepare for. But they also haven't played, like I said before, great offenses or great off line.
So this this week will be a great test.
Yeah, it's interesting you say, good coach though, because let's face it, Mike McCarthy hasn't been making positive headlines since his ride.
Now I'm talking more dan Quinn in this specific case, but they've been pretty well coached overall this year.
You got to give it to him now.
Bringing it all the way back from ours side, from rsside, from our side, the final game that we want to talk about here, the Chiefs and the Bills. This is, of course the second biggest matchup of the week, behind the Commander's Bears matchup that won't really be relevant by
the time this show comes out, But Chiefs Bills. This is an AFC Championship preview in most people's minds here, and the stakes are very very real, because odds are the winner of this game is the one who gets to host that game most likely, or at least maybe not most likely, but you know that's on people's minds right now. The Chiefs are getting two and a half at home in this one, And I mean, I get it.
The Bills are a buzz saw, but they're a buzzsaw that's got a few broken little blades in there on the secondary that can be exploited. I mean, it feels like we're destined for a barn burner here and we're all hoping that this is just exactly like that playoff
matchup last year. But where are you guys going? I have a hard time taking I have a hard time not taking points with the Chiefs, and I have a hard time betting against the Bills, and it's making me not know where I want to go in this Greg any thoughts.
I don't have a strong feeling I would definitely stay away. I'm with you that my first instinct was, just like Mahomes as a home underdog. I'm just, by principle on a game that I don't have a good feel for, would take that. But it's also one of those Okay, I'm taking that, But in my heart, I feel like I know the Bills are a better team overall, that they're more balanced, that their defense is absolutely better than the Chiefs defense, and so I don't feel good about it whatsoever.
But forced to choose.
I still would probably lean my Homes, but it's like most games, you think, okay, Mahomes, what an advantage, and he's playing at an MVP level. These are the two top MVP candidates, I would say through five weeks, so you don't even feel like you have a big advantage at quarterback, which is crazy.
I can't remember if it was this show's Tuesday episode or a show that I was edding with you, Matt and Pat Fitzmorris on where someone made the point about Andy Reid and the Chiefs that some games it feels like they have two playbooks. They have the We're going all out playbook and we don't want to show anybody anything playbook. Yeah, and it feels like the Raiders game was that we don't want to show anybody anything because
we've got to get big game against the Bills next week. Matt, how much are you factoring that into saying, Okay, the Raiders game on Monday night, Maybe that was a little bit of a fluke, that was the Raiders really getting up for that game. And the other factor is, how do you think that the short rest going into playing the Bills is going to matter?
I mean, I think it matters. I've taken that into account in my projections. I have this, I don't know, it's discussing, and I'm probably wrong, but I do have the Chiefs as a slight favorite. I have him as a one point favorite here, and my Galaxy brain is just like, Okay, Patrick Mahomes. I still think he's the number one quarterback in the league. Josh Allen is right up there, but I think Mahomes is still slightly the
better quarterback. I think Andy Reid, even though he has questionable decision making at times, in terms of a schemer, he's unrivaled. I think he's the better coach in this game. And they're going against a defense that has at least been injured to this point. They might get a number of those players back, but they're still without their number
one quarterback, Tredavius White. They're still without their free safety Micah Hyde, you know, and there's no guarantee that some of those other guys in the secondary end up coming back this week. So yeah, if you give me the opportunity to take Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, I will do it. He's seven to zero to one against the spread as an underdog he's He's literally undefeated against the
spread as an underdog. Like anytime that the market has looked at Mahomes and said, no, we're gonna go against him with this other guy, the market has been wrong.
Were they Were they in the playoff game last year?
I'm trying to think they definitely were favored against the Bills in Week five last year and the Bills smoked him, so that you know that having that history that like, okay, we've seen it, and that was they had that game plan that made everyone question what are the Chiefs going to do to fix things? And I think the Chiefs last year has been in part almost like reacting to that game in that defensive style, and they've become very
good at it. They are a good station to station offense when they need to be there, better at running the ball. When I saw the injury report, because my initial pick was Chiefs, I needed to put it in even before the first injury reports out, and like so many Bills are coming back for this game, it got me thinking, like I don't know, like the head says
Bills even though my heart says Chiefs. Because players likely back. Yeah, Dawson Knox is likely back Isaiah McKenzie's likely back at Oliver has been back.
I think Jordan Phillips their defensive lineman.
So that's like a lot of players they are getting back in player, especially to have one of their starting safeties is important. So I think they're a better team. And yet I because of everything you said, I wouldn't pick.
I would take the Chiefs still in the end.
Yeah, and I think I think Kelsey makes a big difference in this game. Like obviously he's the number one pass catcher for that offense, and I think, you know, he had success last year going against the Bills. Let's see, got one hundred and fifty three yards and two touchdowns last year and two games against the Bills on nineteen targets.
And there's just something about the way that the Bills are constructed on defense, Like they have a good defense, but they're still seventeenth in defensive success rate drop back success rate, Like they are allowing teams to to like just get little chunk games on them through the passing game, and like that really aligns with the Chiefs are doing
this year. So I don't know, it feels like it's like you hear about like Ben but don't break defenses like the Chiefs have a break them by bending them type of offense, and I think they're going against a defense that will allow them to move the ball down the field.
This is I really just can't wait to watch this game. I don't think that I'm gonna be able to put a bed in. I think you're right, Matt, I'm inclined to go against that. I'm not inclined to go against Mahomes. I'm inclined to bet on him when I'm getting some
points with them. Part of me wants to take the under in this one because the totals at like fifty four right now, and that just feels like a potential play where, you know, if we have a period of time in the game, like third quarter where things just slow down a little bit, you maybe have like a turnover in the red zone or two, all of a sudden you're staring down the barrel of a big sweat to get over in the forth uter.
Yeah, they score twenty five points in two minutes like they did at the end of that playoff game, and you're right, they could slow the pace down with like a bunch of long drives. But that that game alone, and look, the regular season won last year when the Chiefs offense was struggling, still went over.
That number was thirty eight to twenty. I don't know.
I just would be not wanting to root against points in the fourth quarter of this game.
I couldn't do it. I can't do it. It's such a high number. And the Bills, with their defense and then their ability to control the ball on offense, they have been an under team this year. But I just still can't. I still can't do it.
It wouldn't it wouldn't shock me if the Bill's pass rush was the difference in this game and they win because of that, And it's not that crazy at score to your point, because that's I mentioned. The Cowboys changed how I thought. Weirdly, the Bills have changed how I thought going into the season. I think more than any AFC team because their pass rush is just absolutely.
For real and it wasn't there. It was why they lost this game a year.
Ago, and it's so good so like to me, their defense is even better than I expected.
Long term.
Even even if I don't feel strong about this game, I feel like they're they I just can't. They're just gonna be such a tough out in the playoffs.
Yeah, this is I mean, this is gonna be a great game. This is a pre preview of hopefully what we get as a rematch in the postseason. I'm excited to watch it. I'm not particularly keen on betting it though, but guys, that is going to do it for us. Craig, thank you so much for the time today. We have definitely kept you long enough here. But where could people find you in the great work you're doing around the internet.
Yeah, check the Around the NFL podcast, And I also do a podcast with my comedian friend.
His name is Anthony Jesslnick.
It's called the Jesselnick and Rosenthal Vanity Project and that's a lot of fun I just try to stay out of his way. Well, well, he's funny, so you can check out that too.
He is a fantastic comedian. I love both of your works on both the podcast and the Around the NFL network. Around the NFL podcast. Absolutely a pleasure to have you here with us today. Of course, mad f the Oracle on Twitter you can find him and his and uh all of the fantastic content that you're doing as well.
Matt right, Yeah, I mean I don't know if i'd say it's fantastic, but it's good enough. It's good. I'm a top ten ranker right now in the Fantasy Pros contest, so that's uh, that's.
Not nothing, not nothing at all. Guys, that's gonna do it for us. Thank you so much for listening today, and of course, let's catch some tickets this weekend.