Hey everybody, welcome back to another episode of the Fantasy Pros No sorry, Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Hadi with me is Matt part You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt Matt. What's going on?
So it's one of those days, right, We're just gonna roll with it, like, just don't even worry, Like, right, we can say whatever we want.
Yeah, yeah, you're good.
Just loose, no worries.
Yeah, isn't that every day? Are we not loose? Because all I do is just talk nonsense?
Yeah, I hear. This is that time of the year, right. The bags under my eyes will show you exactly what I've been dealing with in terms of work and everything else has been going on in the world right now. But yeah, look, we had a good week last week. Let's let's do it again. We're slowly but surely climbing up the these leader boards here with the DraftKings Picks contest.
Yeah, so let's go through it as we always do. And again we are going to as we always do here, get to every game on the slate because that is what we do. But hopefully we will settle on our five picks for the Draft Kings contest. I'm also going to give you because the lines they come out and they lock on Wednesday morning, I believe, is when they come out for the DraftKings contest. So sometimes they're predicting, as Matt has explained, where they think the line is
going to end up. But I'll also reference our betanalyzer over at betting pros dot com, which really check out, which basically has the contensus lines. You can also check on my book and I'll let you know either against the spread. We'll talk about maybe sprinkling some over unders as well, even though they're not in the DraftKings contest where the majority of experts are leaning. So I believe we were what were we eight and said? No, we
were eleven and nine coming into last week, right. The picks that we wound up going with were the Steelers laying seven and a half to the Eagles chick which we won and we knew about that. We went public with the Panthers getting two and a half from the Falcons didn't matter. We won. We went with the Colts laying one and a half against the Browns, which we sort of. You know, we talked about afterwards we weren't sure we're going to do it, but we wound up going with that.
Game in the forty nine Ers were the one games that we because we had three that we knew and we were good, and then we had two that we kind of were wishy washy on and those two are the ones we lost.
Yeah, so the forty nine ers laying eight and a half, they almost almost covered against the Dolphins. They lost by thirty six, I believe, but we did go after Matt berated me on the podcast. This is what, by the way, I love. I wish everybody could just have a private view of like my messages with Matt, because literally I was like, I kind of want the Vikings getting six and a half from the Seahawks, and he was like, you want to go against Russ in prime time with
Kirk Cousins. Are you crazy? And then legitimately I check with him every Saturday night. I was like, you know what I'm thinking about? I think I like the Viking cause I was like.
Wait, well no, everything I liked the Vikings. I mean I always preface is that like just because I think something, I go and talk to people. I'm not someone who thinks that I'm smarter than everybody else, and it's me versus the world. I go and do research and I ask those people behind the counter, and I normally run our picks by them, and I say, okay, what do
you think? And the one that they said, we're uh was Seattle, And I was like, you got to be kidding me, And they're like, all the metrics, you would think that it's Seattle, but that line's too heavy, and lo and behold, Seahawks win. But the line was too heavy.
Yeah, that's what we knew. Don't doubt me. And of course I have earned the right to whenever I want pick a Jets game. As the Personal destroyed the Jets. Now we'll see whether or not I think this is a week worth taking, but I have unfettered authority. Now after that game, we are in one hundred and seventy ninth place out of six hundred eight nins. That's not bad at all. Now we need a week, okay, we need like the four and one or the five and
zero week to really get there. But so long as we avoid any of these like really crushing weeks, because it's it's a landline out there. We're going to keep steadily moving up. We've gone from like two fiftieth and over the last couple of weeks it's going three and two. We moved up to one hundred and seventy nine, so we are getting there. We are fourteen and eleven, so that is solid, So let's keep it going.
Are we really well, we're three games or five hundred now?
Okay, yeah, we're at fifty six percent. Yeah, we're fourteen and eleven.
Now. In most years, the winning you have to be around In the beginning part of the of the Westgate Super Contest, if you scored anywhere above sixty five percent, you normally were in the money. This now because it's been so crazy, now you need to be somewhere in the neighborhood of seventy two seventy three percent to win. But given the number of people in our contest, I would say that sixty percent is going to be pretty decent.
So if we keep if we move up a little bit and get around sixty percent, I think we're going to be pretty good here across the entire season.
So right now, the payoff structure cuts at sixty five percent, So if you're sixty five percent right now, you'd be catching. But what's fascinating, Matt, is so almost everyone who has cashed this, This is actually fascinating. Almost everyone who was cashed has used at least one of their bye weeks. Wow, like already yet a reminder in the DraftKings contest to get two by weeks okay of the sixteen weeks, so
it only goes through week sixteen. You can take two weeks off, and Matt and I've kind of been saving them. I've been a little more willing to use them if I thought, you know, we didn't use it last week, which is good because we went through and two. But the vast majority, I mean, you've got guys, who are you know, thirteen to twenty, You've got some of you's two they're ten out of fifteen and they're cashing right now, so they're stuck.
They must have forgot. The only way I could see you using two different weeks is like you just forgot to enter in you something got coming caught up with you or something, because yeah, why would you use both knowing what potentially is coming in November and December?
Yeah? I know, I know, I don't get it. But I would say, because.
Hel phone would be to be leading the contest and just sit on it, yeah, and just say sure, you guys, come catch us. Like it would be not that we're going to be in first place, but if you were to have a free bye week, to have a bye week off and be like, you guys, come get us.
Yeah, I like it all right. Well, anyway, I would say, of the people who are cashing right now, at least eighty percent have used one by week.
Wow, So good, okay.
Interesting, all right, So anyway, everybody is fascinated with the whole story of the DraftKings Championship, of course, but let's get into this week's games. That's what we're doing here. A couple of reminders. One, no prop bets I failed last week. I usually get Matt a couple of prop bets the night before. I am on a well. My house is on a well. That's where we draw water and are well ran dry. And when you have yes corrupt turn out in New Hampshire.
So I know that my brothers nor getting former and Western mass he's praying for rain.
Yeah, that's how it is. And so when you have a family of four and a stressed out wife and two kids, and you can't flush toilets and you can't take showers. Things like that get in the way. I will not fail you again. My well runs dry. I will still have three props waiting, I promise, and if
you want those props. Matt obviously should be listening to the Baalley Juice podcast, my favorite podcast other than this one, where he gives every day fifteen minutes in the morning, he gives out his best bets and he will give props. In addition, Sunday mornings eleven am to twelve pm on the Betting Pros YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Stunning Pros, Matt does an our live stream. I provided my props there. He's going to lay in there, so make sure you
subscribe and tune into that. In the meantime, let's do what we always do, Matt. You get your first choice any game you want. Let me know what your top pick is on the slate.
Do I need to describe what? Do I need to say it?
Yeah? You need to say it. I don't know what it is?
Yes you do?
No, I don't what is it?
Yes? You do? You know?
What is? All right? Hold on?
Oh?
Well, I got it. I'm sorry, I do know exactly what it is. What it is, insert team playing the Buffalo bit is that right?
And they just happen to be playing the best team in football.
Okay, the Chiefs are laying three and a half to the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo, and this is now on Monday Night. I believe did this?
This is supposed to be the name Thurday Night Monday Night game? Correct? Yep?
Okay, all right, Matt, make your case as to why you do. I mean, you're just a little.
Bill's defense is absolute trash. And even if White comes back in places which he looks like he's.
Going to, he does.
Yes, they can't stop any one. And this is a pissed off team who is really angry about losing to the Raiders. And you've got a team that I think is going to come up and put a number. I'm gonna put it at forty. The Chiefs will score forty on the Buffalo Bills coming up on Monday Night.
Yeah, okay, I have this one on my list, so I'm pretty sure that this will be one that we will go with. And I'm never gonna run away from backing Patrick Mahomes under any circumstances. I do not despise the Bills as Matt that. I mean, I can't imagine how happy you were on Tuesday night.
Because it's funny because people dn me from the Daily Juice audience and they were like, why didn't you rub it in more that Josh Allen threw two picks and looked horrible, Like you said he was going to one of those.
One of those obviously was not in any way his fault that bounced off, but still he threw two picks going.
Through two picks, and the pick that he threw to Martin Malcolm Butler was pathetic.
Well, he threw two to Malcolm Butler.
Yeah, but for the second one was a real bad one. The first one was a deflection.
The first one was a deflection.
That one wasn't his fault, yeah, the second one was one hundred percent of his fault. And I just I don't need to take a victory lap on it because it's just like, yeah, this is who this team is. I mean, this is this is a regression coming. And I'm telling you on November the first, when the Patriots play against the Bills, that game will be for first place in the division, and everybody thought it was over. Bills are gonna run away with it. Oh my gosh.
They were breathlessly talking up an MVP candidacy for Josh Allen. No Chiefs all right, late three and a half.
So I am also in on this there are You know. I do not feel the same way about the Bills that Matt does, and I do think there's a chance they're going to be a little angry here. They were pretty embarrassed on national television, essentially by the Titans. They are getting healthier. John Brown has even looks like I think he practiced fully today, so he'll probably play. That does do a benefit. But again, the Chiefs coming off the loss in particular is really what They're gonna.
Be great, and they should have lost to the Patriots. Yeah, if Cam Note plays in that game. They're coming off two losses. They've been they're trending in the wrong direction, So that's why I like them to bounce back.
Now. They're gonna be down Sammy Watkins in this game, not that big deal because Migel Hardman is very good and he will play. I think they're gonna look to get back on track here, So I'm not scared off by the three and a half. It is in Buffalo, but there are no fans and it's not cold yet, so I don't think the home field advantage matters that much other than the familiarity. And again, not a hugely short week because it's a Monday night game, but they it is a short week for the Bills since they
played Tuesday. The line, the consensus line on betting bros Like Combatech and Jack, has moved to minus four, so it is trending in the direction that we are thinking. And sixty eight percent of the consensus of experts against the spread are favoring the Chiefs, so we are not alone. And I'm fine. Basically, I'll put that one in pen
because I'm I'm good to go. Though. Okay, let me know how you feel about this one, Matt, because I don't love that many games this week, but I do like a few, and the Chiefs and the Bills were one of them. I know it's a divisional game, which usually scares me off, but I think in this game there are a lot of warning signs for the Browns who are flying high, and I kind of like the Steelers laying three and a half. Here's my case number one, obij I don't want to speculate because we don't know,
but he left today with an illness. I guess he hasn't gotten his test pack unless I've missed it. Twitter is down by the way as we record this, or at least it was, so I don't know if he got that. Jarvis Landry also backed up, has missed practiced. When I hear Baker Mayfield is trending in the right direction to play, like the Ribs are bothering him, that the Steelers defense is gonna I know the Browns have a good offensive line, but they get a ton of pressure.
I think they're gonna batter and bruise him, and I think they're gonna do a lot of stuff. Meanwhile, the Steelers Deanthony Johnson is practicing, so he's probably gonna play. They found their gem and Chase Claypool. Hopefully they know how to get involved. This is just a better team. And I don't love Mike Tomlin like backing him under any of these circumstances, but I do just think right now, given that Mayfield is banged up, given that OBJ potentially
won't play, given that Landry is banged up. Given that again they're down Nick Chubb and I know Kareem Hunt looks great, but it is a loss. So for me divisional game, I get it, but I'm still willing to take That's my number one pick, the Steelers. I think three and a half to the Browns.
It's my number two pick.
Yes, yes, okay, this is.
We don't need to do very much with it. It's my number two pick in the week. And I often whenever I talk Steelers, I go talk to Dave Shriff, pais from Pittsburgh, yep. And the number I think he told me is Cleveland has won one time in their last twenty.
In Pittsburgh yep.
So yeah, I feel pretty good about taking the Pittsburgh Steelers.
But three out of the spread is the consensus spread on betting process. Again, I'm looking at the bed analyzer, which is a really cool tool because you can look at the varies different you know how it is over under on the money line, and just where people are coming out and where it's moving. It is still at three and a half and sixty seven percent around the Steelers and the consensus, by the way, just so you know, it's not an overwhelming thing that just like, well, we
like the favorites at all. That's not the way it works. I mean, people are putting in you know a lot of times you see value in the underdogs. But right now both our picks have essentially two thirds of the people who are making picks on vettingpros dot com along with us. I feel good about it. Okay, I feel good about too. Let's get some dissension, Matt, who's your number three?
All right? I don't know if it's gonna be dissension or not, but I look at this Green Bay team and I'm really, I really like what I'm seeing out of this offense. I love the balance. I think lafloor and I thought there was some potential for Aaron Rodgers and Matt Lafleur to hate each other this year. I thought the drafting of Jordan Love was going to drive a wedge in this locker room, and it's been the opposite. No one's even talking about this kid. Now. They blew
a first round pick on a quarterback. Never should have done that. But they're getting healthy. This defense for the Bucks is decent, but I just I'm a little concerned about what this offense is looking like for the Bucks. I mean, I thought Gronk was going to be a really big weapon in the red zone. He's been exult He's been literally invisible in the red zone. I think the running game is okay, but they're very banged up still in with their running back depth. I think their
offensive line is okay but not great. Brede's getting hit, and I think this Packer's defense is a little bit sneaky here. I like Green Bay. The number has moved quite a bit in favor, I think towards the Tampa Bay Bucks, which is really kind of interesting, and I'm kind of confused by the line movement. I like green Bay minus two and a half here on the road under a field goal.
So what is interesting is that the Bucks are getting two and a half points. You said it's moved towards the Bucks. The consensus line is actually only the Bucks plus one. Okay at the moment, right, So that's basically where you were going with it. I'm not sure. I don't have a good feel for this game. That's basically what I'm going to say here the Packers. Okay, first of all, I like how delicate you were being in describing you know what this looked like coming into the
season for the Packers. Yeah, it looked like a disaster. They basically ignored Rogers coming in whatsoever into the draft. However, they are playing extremely well. But they've beaten the Vikings when the Vikings didn't have a secondary to know what they were doing, the Lions, the Falcons, and the Saints, which I'll give him the Saints, you know that was a good win. I when you first messaged me with this game, I thought you were taking the Bucks side
of it. Is that true? By the way I was, and you got talked out of it.
No. I went and read a couple of different stories and looked at a couple of different lines, and then talked to a friend of mine from Pro Football Focus, and they're very concerned about the Bucks offense. Okay, that they have very low grades on a lot of a lot of the players. Injuries or no injuries. No, Godwin being out is significant. Evan's not being healthy is significant.
I think Godwin may play, that's the thing. He returned to practice.
If he plays it, okay, but he's still not. Him and Brady are still not on the same page. And I'm still concerned about I mean, O. J. Howard's gone for the year, Gronk has been I mean, not a part of this offense at all, And I'm just I'm concerned about this offense for Tampa. And I think I think that the Bucks are going to score, are gonna give up thirty here to the Packers. So I mean, Demante Adams coming back.
Yeah, Adams is coming back, and and Vi Devea is you know, that's a big loss them.
And you got Aaron Jones running the football, and their best run stopping defensive lineman is not playing.
They're run their defense is so good. I think this is one where I'm probably I think I'm on the other side, so I think i'd probably stay away from it. I don't love like, it wasn't one of my top choices to be like give me the Bucks or anything like that. Also, I get it they should have won that. I mean, I realized they lost to the Bears, but they should have won that game pretty easily, despite the fact that they nobody a wide receiver, even you know,
Evans was banged up. I think an angry Brady if he gets Godwin back. You know, I don't know, I don't want to bet against them in Taba, so I think that's a stay away from me. But that's fine. You're not gonna like this game. I can guarantee that I like the Bears getting two and a half from the Panthers in Carolina. Here is why the Panthers have looked very good last couple of games, but they don't do great against good defenses. Seventeen points against the Bucks,
twenty one points against the Chargers. It's not like they're putting up a ton of points. I don't think they're going to be able to put up a ton of points against the Bears, who are essentially off of Mini BI because they got it on Thursday, and now I get it, it's in Carolina. I get it. Nick Foles at many points in that game looked terrible. But this is kind of a classic case of selling a team when they're high. And I think the Panthers are not as good as they looked. I think their defense is
still bad. I think Dave Montgomery's finally going to have a really good game in this one. I think the Bears defense is really what does it for me? So I like the Bears getting two and a half from the Panthers in Carolina.
Teddy Bridgewater is sixteen and four against the spread and plus twenty games. Yeah, so you're going against Joe Brady and a team that looks better and better and better every week.
Yeah. This is classic case of selling. I de SENSEI by the way, is moving in. This is moving in the Bears.
Yeah, I know, but yeah, I know. I can't take this Bears offense. I just it's just such a train wreck. It's just such a disaster right now. In terms of if Bridgewater gets rolling and puts up some points, I.
Just well, I think the Bears road.
I mean, it's just Jacimra.
Road, you know, home road, I.
Guess there in Carolina though, Yeah, I know.
But you know, when it's very different when you have you know, seven thousand however many fans they have or whatever, you know.
I mean, I've seen people starting to push Matt Rule for Coach of the Year.
Right I I That is classic, though, That's exactly what I'm saying. That is classic overreaction to a couple of wins off teams that aren't that great and being like, look at this, you think if.
You don't think the Bears are a good team they'll do.
No, I don't.
I don't like it. So they're in the same vein as all the teams they've beaten.
But I think they have a legitimate defense. That's what I think about the Bears. So I think that the fact that the Bears are four and one right now is silly. But I do think that they have a legitimate defense, and I think that that's where the Panthers offense is going to struggle. I still think, you know and all, that the Panthers run defense, which is terrible to begin with. They're down a few players now coming
into this game as well. So I really do think that the style that Matt Naggie probably wants to run in this game, he's going to be able to run. So I like the Bears. I'm gonna be on the Bears just on my own, but that's fine outside the kind of we agreed on the first two, disagreed on the next two. Let's go to your next pick. By the way, I will say sixty one percent at the right now, the consensus lines the Panthers laying one. That sixty one percent are on the Panthers, So they're on
your side on that one. I don't care. I'll be on an island.
It doesn't matter.
Mean, all right, go ahead for your next pick.
So the next bunch here, those are the three like I like, Carolina, Steelers and the Chiefs in Carolina, the three that I like a lot.
The next way you liked Carolina. That was one of your picks.
No, I mean, I don't know if I wrote it to you or not, but I've got my list.
No, no, you don't have to not that you wrote it to me. But even now you were going to say.
Carolina, Yeah, it's all right, it's on my list of of I've got basically, Steelers will no let me Yeah, Steelers in the Chiefs from my top two. Then Carolina came in three number four. My four, five, and six picks here are all kind of in the same boat of like, I'm not comfortable. I don't like it, but I will.
Well, you listed the Packers as well, all right.
Yeah, yeah, I did like Green Bay. I just sorry I crossed out Green Bay because you said no across North Carolina. So the next one is Dallas, and this is going to be a very popular pick here, and it's the Cardinals. There's something really wrong with this Cardinals team. Chandler Jones is now up for the year, their defense can't really tackle anybody, and Andy Dalton's not an awful quarterback by any means. I think there is a win one for the Gipper type of moment here for the
Dallas Cowboys. This is going to be a very public play. We're catching two and a half points at home in prime time on Monday night, and I love Kyler Murray to pick up some nice yardage here. But you know, you know, Vanderla may play in this game, which would be a real big step up for that defense. He was able to go. He's back at practice. I just think there's something up here with this Cardinals team, and I think they go back to being what they always
should have been. I think with Dallas, and that's a Zeke heavy team, run the football, pound the rock, play ball control, and try to keep their defense off the field. So I think Dallas catching two and a half points is the side I like there.
It is. I mean, the spread is moving towards Dallas. If I like a side, it would be Dallas. But this from the guy who is like I can never Kirk Cousins in primetime. You want to get Andy Dalton in primetime, that's where you want to go.
It's more it's more like I think the team rallies. I think the same like with the Texans and the Texans coming back and winning that game against Jacksonville, and I mean, jackson was so bad. But I just I think there's something up with this Cardinals offense. And if you look at the passing attack, for I mean, they're not giving the ball to Hopkins as much as they should be, and there's been some regression there from the
quarterback in Murray. So he's still run the ball a lot, but he's not throwing the ball down the field nearly as much as you would like. And all these safeties are creeping up to the line of scrimmage and saying, go ahead, throw over the top, and they don't do it. So I don't know what to make of what's going on with the Cardinals. It's more of a fade on the Cardinals than it is a take on Andy Dolon.
Yeah, I'll say this, I don't hate it. I'll put it to the side. Okay, it's the right side of the pick. I think it is, by the way, so on the bed analyzer, I can sort by heavily picked one side to none. It's fifty to fifty. Okay, the Cowboys one and a half. I'm going to be on the Cowboys when I picked the game. I'm just not trying one it for the contest. But if we can't agree, that's one where I might be willing to plus. It's fun to bet a Monday.
Night game, by the way, but we already have one with k C.
That's true.
That's true.
So you double it up and double your pleasure, double your fun. Yeah, I might. I might. Let's put that one in the maybe category, so I don't. We're not nixing it. You may nix this one after what happened to us last week with this team, it's the forty nine ers getting three and a half from the Rams. I feel like we're both generally a little high on the Rams this year, so it's kind of weird. You know, we like the whole There are no you know, fans
to bother Jared Goff and McVeigh in his ear. But this what happened last week, Man Garoppolo looked terrible, absolutely terrible. I think it's just kind of one of those weeks they haven't looked great at all for the whole year, and they're injured of course throughout. It just felt like one of those weeks. And I think they're going to be pretty desperate here. I think this is their third straight game at home. Yes, if I'm not yet right, their third straight game at home. I think Garoppolo is
going to start. I think that was just a bad growl. I don't know if it was the ankle or whether or not whatever it was, I think he just wasn't right. It was one of those terrible games. I think it's too much of an overreaction how we're looking at with the line. I think they're getting a little healthier on defense. I've obviously lost you know, Bosa for the full year and everything like that, but mostly Witherspoon's going to be back,
so getting a little healthier in the secondary. Mostard is now back that ran do not stop tight ends very well. So I think Kittle's going to go crazy. And this just strikes me again. I look for these situations where it's, you know, kind of Bilo sell high here in this situation, and forty nine ers will strike me as a team that's Bilo. If I'm getting more than a field goal in this game, I'm willing to take it. So that's my next pick, go ahead.
I think we should take it. Really yeah, and a couple of reasons why won. I wouldn't bet this game, Okay, because I feel okay enough putting a pick on it for our team versus money. So I again, I talk to a lot of people about a variety and this is a game where one of the people I talk to, he's got a guy who runs all these algorithms and numbers, and he has this game as Sam Fran minus one. The look aheadline was Sam Fran minus three. Now it's
they're catching three and a half points. Yeah, so we're catching six and a half points of value here in this game. And it's a divisional game, coming off of a horrible performance, and you know this team is going to get ripped and screamed at and they're gonna go crazy for this. They need a victory desperately. Here. It's a four and one RAMS team. I don't think they're a five and one caliber team. And I don't think
San Fran is this bad. Now, there's always a the regression for the team that comes off of a loss in the Super Bowl. But this is a team that needs a victory in the worst way, and I could easily see the Rams winning it on a last second kick and we win, and we win on the hook, so exactly. I like the three and a half number there. It's more of a numbers play for the contest than anything else. But I think the hook there matters.
Yep, it's the hook. And right now, by the way, the consensus line is down to three at that point, it's a little different, right yep. Oh I'm getting something. Oh boy, the this only helps us with our pick. Matt per ESPN. Apparently Le'Veon Bell will be signing with the Chiefs Chiefs five News, which really, I mean, but whatever the spread is, they're gonna win by twelve now once Bell is there. No, I'm kidding, Matt. It's completely irrelevan.
But I don't know. It's irrelevant though, I mean, it's it's it is another guy for them to go ahead and and and use in the screen game and have him. Yeah, I mean, I think he's a weapon. I mean he can catch the football and run the football.
I just can Edwards Hilaire.
Though I'm a little weird. I'm a little weirded out by that. I mean, that's the only thing that if you have any futures on On Edwards, e Layer, winning Rookie of the Year or you know, having a big season, if he's on your fancy team or whatnot, then all of a sudden, you're bringing in somebody to take away touches from him.
So I don't know, that's that's fair. That's fair. That's something that's fair, and you will, you know, factor in. I'm sure Bell will, but I've watched.
Weird those because he could have. I mean, I supposedly the Dolphins threw a ton of money on him.
He wants to win, he wants to win a Super Bowl wants I get.
That, I do, But I also I also say, like you could have gone I don't know, you could have gone to a to a team where you were going to be utilized and win, you know, and win a Super Bowl. I just feel like there's so many guys who want who want touches and an offense already that is just such a stacked team already. But it's a big move for the Chiefs. I mean, that's that's a big weapon.
Well, that's what we've we've reached our our limit on how much we could talk about Leveon Bell. So we've got three now, Matt, we've got three that I feel okay about. These are three of my top four picks. So go to your next one.
So these next two are just gross and I don't know what to do with it, and so I want to see kind of how you feel. Go ahead, how do you feel about Texans plus three and a half against the Titans.
I kind of like that game. I almost had basically written it off because I was like, well, you love the Titans, justifiably. They've been playing exceptional football. You liked them coming in. You took the alternative win total on the daily juice, which I love because I really do have a rooting interest. It looks like a great call by you, as long as they can avoid injury. But yeah, I kind of liked that game, but I it was like down on my list because I said, there's no way Matt's gonna want.
To It's again, it's the same thing like with San Francisco. It's the same thing. It's more of a system play because it's a divisional game, and like, I don't know, I mean, the Titans have been playing so many of these tight football games, and look they just blew had a huge blowout victory. They're playing really angry and they were mad and they want to shut everybody up. But now they're on the Now. The only thing that scares me about this game is this game's at home. This
was at Houston. I feel way more comfortable taking Houston. But since it's at Tennessee, like I just, I don't know about it. It concerns me about right now. But it is one of the games that from a system play, you know, catching three and a half points in a divisional game. I don't hate it, so I didn't know how you feel. How you it's on my list. I don't know if you hated it or liked it, but I'd be willing to consider it.
It's on my list. It's on my list. I don't want to write it in in penn because I want to talk through a couple more games. But it is at three and a half that the overwhelming insensus is on the Titans at three and a half. But I agree with you for the contest. It is sort of something and they don't you know. The one thing I said, I it's more of the first game out and it's not like the Texans played that well against the Jaguars.
The Jaguars easily could have covered. Yes, that's Brandon the goals had a kicker, all right, but the Texans did you. I mean, Watson threw three touchdown passes. The offense is going to look better now that they're facing some softer defenses. I think Brandon Cooks looked good as long as Will Fuller is healthy, David Johnson is still around, and Deshaun Watson is really good. It's a short week for the Titans.
They're coming off like a huge when like a real short week, right, I mean, because they're you know, so I I kind of like it, Matt. I could see this one being one.
The pass rush from the Titans just is not there. There's just nothing. There's nobody getting after the quarterback. Their secondary is good, but their pass rush is not there. So yeah, you give Watson time in the pocket and he picks people apart. So that's my that's my concern with that. Because the Texans are one in four and the Titans are four and oh and do I think they go to five? And oh? I mean I have them at nine and a half wins, they go to
five and oh, that would be amazing. But I just something tells me that they're due to have all this chaos and controversy kind of a flat spot for them potentially in their schedule against a team that's totally up against a wall.
Yeah, this just strikes me as a game that they're you know that Houston's going to be able to keep close and you're getting the hook. I kind of like it. My guess is we're going with it. My guess is we're going with it. But let's keep talking through some of them. How do you feel this is not you know, I have full authority now to do whatever I want with the Jets. I'm not exercising it on this game because I don't love it, But I am on the Dolphins side of the laying eight and a half against
the Jets. How do you feel right now? We've got you know, Sam Darnold already ruled out for the game, so it's you know, slinging Joe Flacco there. They may get a little healthier wide receiver Brashad Perman is starting to practice. I don't think Mims is going to be back. I know he's activated off ir but he got twenty one days. How do you feel about the Dolphins laying eight and a half to the Jets.
I'd be fine with it. I mean, I think the Jets are done. I think they're keeping Audham gaze for a reason, and I think that they want to lose, and it's just a matter of how many points where they lose by.
Yeah, so it's up to nine and a half already.
If you want to still, if you want to stand on a table and say, this is a game where I mean the Patriots are ten point favorites to the Broncos, Yeah, the Dolphins are could have just destroyed the Jets.
I mean, you know what makes me hesitant. The reason I'm not because I've been jumping on every other Jet. I've always wanted to be like the Cardinals seven and a half. I don't care it's more in a touchdown. I don't care that I'm fading the Cardinals at this point.
The Jets are historically bad at this point. Is that it does strike me a little bit as like you see fits come out every once in a while and just be like, oh, today's the day, Today's the day where I'm throwing four interceptions, doesn't matter the opponent, but it really is hard.
But he's keeping Tua on the sidelines by how I know, So I think there's something to the fact that he doesn't want to give it up.
You've seen him though enough. Oh, you know that these can go away. I think this is one that I kind of like, but I'm not one hundred percent putting it in, but I lean that way. So right now, we could put in this one, and we could put in the Texans, and I'd be totally fine with our five picks right now. But let's keep talking through any other game that you have on your wridar. And I will say, by the way, ninety two percent of the experts who have made picks are on the on the
Dolphins who are giving. And again the spread is rising, you know, maybe because Darnold was out, maybe because the books are slowly realizing we can't make the line high enough. You know that that year that the Patriots were favored and the Dolphins, you know whatever was that last year? Probably Yeah, where the where the spreads just got to be like sixteen or seventeen. They're like, we don't really
know when it ends. I feel like it might be like that for the Jets, especially with flack O there. So let's put that one in the maybe pile. But I'm leaning towards it as well any other games they like, Yeah.
The last one on my list. And something's up with the Colts offense, and I'm just not whether it's Philip Rivers and the lack of arm strength or that Jonathan Taylor is not the running back that I thought he was going to be in the NFL for having a great career. The worry he was how much Wisconsin used him And I don't know if there's just none enough troad on the tires or what. But Cincinnati got embarrassed and they couldn't do anything. They were blitzed like crazy.
And the Colts defense is okay, hey, but they're not great. They've been banged up. I know Leonard's coming back and whatnot, but I think Joe Burrow to keep this game within eight and a half points. I think since he is gonna be they might lose, but I think they're in the game by a touchdown or lessier against the Colts.
Yeah, it's moving in that direction. It's seven and a half now at the consensus sixty four percent of our experts like Cincy. Yeah, that's a really tough one for me. Do we know about Leonard? Is he practiced?
Think he's questionable, but I think I think he was back at practice today.
If he plays, that makes me a little less excited about it, just because I think that that the whole defense. It's just it's hard to see, you know, it's it's it's another one that's maybe this is a weird week, Matt, because I feel like there are a lot of games that I'm like, Okay, I can live with this game, Like that's a game. If you were like Dan, I love this game. This is my game, gotta put it in. I think it's okay. I just worry a little bit.
I agree completely Rivers looks completely toast, like just done, like can't do anything. What's However, Taylor looked a little better I thought last game, and I think he's you know, hopefully they might just need to ride him a little more and let him get in a groove as opposed to giving touches to Jordan Wilkins and Niam Hines. But I agree that it seems weird that they would be able to kind of run away with this thing and get it by more than a touch on. So let's
put that one in the maybe pile as well. Let's run through a couple other games, sure, and then we can tell on how do you feel about the Giants slaying too, I'm not picking either side. I'm just giving the spread. So I don't think I'm taking the spread in New York. The Giants giving two and a half to Washington.
See the whole thing with the quarterback spot with Washington concerns me a little bit because if I had some better idea as to like, Okay, Kyle Allen's playing and that's it. He is, I know he is, but if he gets dinged up, I mean he gets hurt again, here comes Alex Smith, so.
Like, yeah, but that's every that's every I know.
Like if you if you play your first half of football in forever for your team and you get hurt in the first week, the first the first week, first quarter, yeah, I mean come on, Like, I'm just like, something's I'm concerned about trusting what Washington could do because I do think if they get Chase Young back and he's effective. I mean I don't like either team in New York to be quite honest, I don't think any either the Jets or the Giant, should be favored against anybody in the NFL.
That's I think the wrong team might be favorite. Yeah, that's legitimately how I feel. I think the wrong team is favored.
And I just don't know what's going with their offense. I mean, I just don't know if I can trust their quarterbacks to stay healthy. And then am I big on Alex Smith.
To if we're betting on Alex Smith again, awesome story, incredible to see him out there, But he couldn't you know, Yeah, he couldn't.
Thirty nine yards passing in the second half.
He's not healthy enough, you know, or you know, he can't move well enough I think at this point to do anything on offense. So yeah, that's fine. But alan is is Flinn. I'm not pushing for this game. But we're both on the same side. We're both on Washington getting two and a half. Okay, But I admit we're at the point where I don't like any of these games are about to discuss as much as the games that we already have discussed. But I do want to see so we know when you and I talk about it,
on Saturday nights. How we feel about it? But I am, you know, talk to you guys, because I am. I do like washing it. But I agree that if Alex Smith were in there, it would make me a little nervous. How do you feel about your boys? The Patriots laying nine and a half to the Broncos. Cam newton Is back sounds like Stefine Gilmore's back.
So according to the Pro Football Focus friends of mine, yes, they think this line should be fourteen.
Yeah, I'm not kidding.
And it's they too. They believe it's too low. They believe that Cam Cam and company. This is where my fandom gets a little oftentime. It's part of my every every week on the Daily Juice, I do a teaser. It missed for the first time all year. It's four and one now for a two leg teaser, and it missed because the Jacksonville Jaguars kicker missed two two field goals two chip shots. If he hits both those field goals, that the teasers five and oh, so I got screwed
by a kicker. This is one of my legs taking the taking the Patriots and teasing it down and I hope more money comes in here and the line stop. It's going up. But right now it's ten. I would teas down to four. If I can get three and a half or three, I would love it. But the Patriots are winning this game. My question is by what number are they're winning this game? And the Broncos and the Patriots have a funky history with each other. It's
just a it's a it's an unseen rivalry. It's not talked about all that much, but the two franchises hate each other, like they just straight up hate each other. So I mean, you get the quarterback back, although I'm not a huge fan of him, and I don't hate it. It's just, you know, double digits. Everyone's saying it should be over double digits, so this line would be under double digits, So I would say I would I don't
hate it. How about that? Which if you said you wanted to take it, I wouldn't say no.
No, okay, I don't want to take it. But it is one. There's going to be these games, and again follow us on Twitter, tweet it out Dan Harris Hadi and ad Sports Talk Matt where we are going to give out our final picks. This is one where one hundred percent. I could see if you talk to people and you sort of get more info. I like, if you say, Dan, I want to do this, we're doing because there are something like right now where it'd be like if you want to take the panthers, I'm just
not doing it. Like I like the bear side of it, so we're not going to go there. But we're on the same side of this one. So it is one that we probably will not pick when I recap what our picks are at the end, but it is one that I would be willing to consider for certain if you get better info on it. And again you know, it's still the consensus line is still at nine and a half. It's sixty four percent around New England. I
think that's the right side. Even if Drew Locke comes back, Even if Melvin Gordon plays, which I guess you.
Believe that that's how bad this team is, that they might actually play a guy who had a DUI driving ninety five and a thirty five whatever heck he was driving.
Well, you let him know as a lawyer. As a lawyer, Matt, you know, everybody is innocent until proven guilty. And if they want to let it go out the way they want.
But I understand two million dollars by the way, with that because he has a clause in his contract forgetting if forgetting arrested. I believe it. I think it is. And so he lost two million in a clause if he got in trouble. So it's it's not good for him.
But while he's going to get suspended, almost without quite assuming that there's nothing that you know is missing from the story, he's going to get suspended probably for three games from the NFL. But it sounds like he might play. This is like crazy, like it doesn't I'm I'm going into it, assuming that Gordon plays right, going into it, assuming that Locke is back and healthy, and I still like the Patriots right and a half. I don't love it, but it is something that's on there for me. Okay,
let's do a couple of other games here. In these games I really don't have a good feel on either way. The Lions laying three and a half to the Jaguars in Jacksonville, I.
Mean, this is one in three verses one and four. Why are we talking about this game?
It's gross. I don't want it. I'm glad to pick a side.
I'll take the home dog at plus three and a half.
Yeah, I'll take I think this is the Lions coming out party. Look at Jaguars and they win by fours. No, I don't. I don't want any piece of it at all. They're both terrible teams. If I have to pick a side, it would be on the line, just because I think the Jaguars are terrible. They are getting a little healthy on defense, which which does you know? I think Miles
Jack is back practice at least. But I do think that Galladay given full health, that this could be a game where the Lions put up a ton of points. But it's not a game that I want to go anywhere near. I will not be picking either side of it with I have to how about the Ravens lak seven and a half to the Eagles.
So this is the other side of my teaser. Is the Ravens down to one and a half? Yep against the Eagles, Ravens win. I'm just I don't like the hook there, so I feel like a backdoor potential is there, or maybe a straight blowout and the Ravens destroy him. But Ravens are winning the game as a matter what by how much.
I think if I had to, if I had to bet, it would be that the Ravens are gonna just massacre them completely. But you do have this thing where Lamar Jackson, it didn't look great, didn't look like he wanted to run. You know, maybe his knee really is bothering him. Carson Wentz is able. I mean, they they look like they were just going to get completely destroyed in that Pittsburgh game. Then suddenly he turned around.
Yeah, I was like, wha wait.
We were like what you and I were texting to the were like what the heck is going on here? And they the Eagles are getting healthier right now. They may have al Seon Jeffery and Deshaun Jackson back for this game. So it is a game where I'd rather stay away. But if I had to choose one seven and a half points, I would still go with Baltimore despite the hook and sixty three percent of our experts feel the same way. How about the Falcons getting three
and a half from Minnesota. I think that's the only game we haven't touched on yet.
Oh and five versus one and four, and I don't I mean, I won't watch one second of this game. This is just a garbage football game. Dan Quinn getting fired. It worked for the Texans, so maybe it works for We.
Talked about that last week. By the way, there is kind of this.
You know.
Again, it's mostly anecdotal at this point because I haven't been able. I haven't had enough time to go in and quantify it. But I feel like every time I see a coach get fired that first game back, yeah, that team plays a little inspired.
I had to play, I would take the three and a half. I'll take the plus points there.
Now, I would take the vikings in this game. But I want absolutely no part of it whatsoever. Okay, So this is Matt, where I think I'm going to put in our You let me know if there's anything off here, or I'm going to put in our potential picks right now. I'm not gonna put them in. I don't put them in until Saturday night. So I give Matt, me and Matt plenty of time talk. But we're definitely putting in
the Chiefs laying three and a half to the Bills. Yes, we're definitely putting in the Steelers laying three and a half to the Brown Yes, we're definitely putting in I guess the forty nine ers getting three and a half from the.
Ramp Yeah, I'm okay with that.
We are prop now these other two are are right now tentative picks. But the Texans getting three and a half from the Titans. And if you had made me make a list of potential, you know, picks that we're going to be in this contest for us, this one would have been like last.
This is almost fading myself, by the way, I love it.
Yeah, fade yourself exactly right. And the final one I'm gonna put in, matt Uh. You know, I'm gonna go with the Dolphins, like eight and a half to the Jets for our final one because I think we're both on that side. However, the other ones that we are considering, and so if you are saying, well, I don't really care about your picks, guys, I just kind of want
to know which way you lean. We definitely both lean Dallas getting two and a half points at home from the Cardinals and that line is moving in Dallas' direction. We lean the Patriots laying nine and a half points to the Broncos in New England. That's just one where I don't think we can pull the trigger. Other than that, we're kind of back and forth on a couple sides.
I like the Bears, you like the Panthers. That in particular, the game that we're actually split on right now are the Bucks and the Packers, where we're on different sides of that game. But that's it. I don't know, Matt. I mean, this is probably the week we go one and four because I'm like, oh, I feel good. I like these picks, but I feel good about these. I think there are a couple of ones that.
Yeah, I like our top three a lot, and yeah, me too, I think they like last week, we liked our top three a lot, And then I think it comes in. And that's really when it comes to these contests, and even just when you're betting in general, like the bottom you're betting four to five games, the bottom four and five are the ones that make or break your day or make or break your weekend for the picks. So it's just if you have your hot, you go five and oh. If if you don't, you go three
and two. But you just want to keep yourself in plus money obviously.
Yeah, and again another thing to think about at least for the contest. For us is the fact that, as you've mentioned before, New Hampshire is one of the states where people can bet on the DraftKings Contest's that's where I live, and so there's probably gonna be a lot of people picking the Patriots in a game where the Patriots could be picked. So that might be a game that, even though it's under consideration, we might want to fade unless you get info which says no, no.
No, no, I'm not fading that if we bet that we're on the Patriots.
No, no, for sure, I wouldn't go the other way whether we put that no, no, no, I'm not going. I don't care what info you have. I'm not back reaching clock and against an angry Bill Belichick and a healthy Patriots deeper short. All right, excellent, that's it. So a reminder, eleven am to twelve pm Eastern time, so eight o'clock on Matt's time. On Sunday mornings, Matt does a YouTube, a live stream on YouTube where he gets breaks down the whole day. I'm going to give him
the props. I don't care if I have no water. I'm going to make sure that I get him my props the night before. It's it's a fun time. Matt interacts with everybody, and listen to the Daily Juice guys, it's it's a great podcast. It's fifteen minutes every morning Matt breaks down his best bets. He is close. I don't know what the scores right now, Matt, but you are close to cashing that thousand.
Plus one thousand rays we made in July, one full unit riding on a plus one thousand bets. So I've been watching that like a hawk. This is gonna I mean, it's you know, to get ten ten units to go ahead and add that to our to our roster, to our record. Is going to be a really nice, a nice edition plus a hell of a way to start a weekend if I can get the race. It's three to two Houston as we speak, though, so.
Oh boy, all right, all right, so hopefully they pull it out. But either way, I think they are going to find a way to pull out that series. And I have them on I think plus eighteen hundred because I got a little late to win the series.
World Series.
Yes, oh no, and that was that was my one baseball bat and I go, wow, all right, my one real one. I might have sprinkled a little bit on like some small ones like the Rockies to make the playoffs. Give me the thing which that didn't hit.
I mean, it's crazy. I never make future bets. I made three. I made the the Yankees under thirty seven wins that hit. Yes, I have, uh that was minus one point fifteen or something like that. I had. And I have the Dodgers at plus three thirty to win the World Series, and I have and I have the Rays to win the American League.
Awesome. That well, your futures in football as well, everybody. You had the Jets under six and a half, which something tells me you're gonna sneak by by six or seven wins. You've got the alternative win total for the Titans at nine and a half, which looks great at plus one fifty five I think, or something like that. And I think you've got what the Raiders over seven? Yep, yeah,
looking pretty good, not bad, not bad, all right, very good. Anyway, listen to the Daily Juicy you can find out Betting pros dot com, slash podcast, or anywhere that you listen to podcasts. We will be back every week doing this breaking down the Slate. In the meantime, you g reaches on Twitter, as I said, Dan Harris Adi and that Sports Talk Matt And until then we will talk to you on this podcast next week