Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Ady with me, of course, is Matt Parl. You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. Matt, are you ready to do this for Week five?
I think I like this card more than you do what I thought.
You no, I well, yes, that's true. I hate this card. I don't like it. You're gonna have to convince me that this is not a week that we are going to pass on all these pics.
I've come around. I'm coming around.
Oh God, you're disappointing me. We'll talk about every game regardless. You know, we're in the DraftKings contest, So let's actually, uh, let's recap where we are there, because we're doing okay, We're not We certainly haven't buried ourselves here. We were eight and seven coming into last week, and we went three and two last week. We missed on the Cardinals length three and a half points to the Panthers and on the Texans length three and a half points to
the Vikings. We hit on the Browns, getting four and a half from the Cowboys. We hit on the Eagles, getting seven and a half from the forty nine ers, and we hit on the Colts, getting two and a half from the Bears. We are eleven and nine now. We were two hundred and fifty fifth out of I think it's six ninety one last week. We're one hundred and eighty ninth now, so we're slowly moving up. We're ready to go, but we need a big week. I don't feel like this is a big week because it's
very difficult in my opinion. Matt apparently feels a little differently. So we'll get to it. As always, props, we're not out yet. We will tune into our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. Matt does a livestream from eleven to twelve. Matt, you've been pretty hot on your props. You've been given out there, right.
Yeah, we've been doing really well actually, and it's I've had to kind of reassess the way that I put my how much money I'm investing in the prop bets because the unit bets, the full unit bets have been doing okay, but the prop beds have been kind of saving me every weekend and normally I only invest about a quarter unit on props because I just think they're very volatile. It's one player, he gets hurt and then your prop is blown. But I mean last clip, I think I was I hit for like eleven in my
last fifteen, So I'm pretty hot on that market. So it's been fun. It's been real fun since the live stream has started to get give those out and to watch those games from a different perspective, almost like a DFS perspective, when you're really pulling for one or two players to do something.
Yeah, props are a lot of fun actually, and i've kind of I've heard from just people I know that props are becoming much more of like a sharp play when people are devoting a little more time to it and being able to really because I think that books don't take as much care as they do with setting the lines as they do with player props.
What I would say about is this, in Vegas, the prop market is much less smaller, right, The options are far fewer than it is with the DraftKings and the fan duels of the world. So what's happened is that the New Jerseys, the West Virginia's Indiana's Illinois of the world. People have grown up playing Daily Fantasy in those markets, so they go to their apps and they open up the book and if there's not like fifty props on
every game, they get kind of frustrated. They're like, what do you mean, hold on a second, why can I do it? Because the offshores have done that for years. So that's been the biggest, not problem, but frustration I think from people living in Las Vegas is that the marketplace for props. You're right, the algorithms have not caught up yet and they're much easier to beat the book that way than it is on a total or side.
Yeah, no, I agree. Okay, so let's talk about a couple of things here. First, Matt was running around right before we got into this podcast, so I don't know if you've heard, Matt, but they have moved the Patriots Broncos game to Monday night, going to do it Monday night doubleheader once again, with the early game going on, because I know there have been some COVID concerns because of Stefan Gilmore. Right now, it's on, but it's on on Monday night. It's going to be the Monday night doubleheader.
Again, I'll just admit how stupid it was to play that Broncos game. So I mean Chiefs game.
The Chiefs game. Yeah, that was a terrible time, just.
A stupid move. It was so dumb, it was so predictable, it was so typical. I think maybe the NFL has dodged this and it's not a massive Titan type outbreak for the Patriots, But why in the world do you put them on a plane to fly? And it looks like we're learning a little more about at least playing football might not be that dangerous the actual act of playing. It's the practice time, it's the meetings, it's the group
gatherings outside of football. But maybe actually playing the game is not nearly as dangerous as we thought it might be.
Yeah, and you know, you've got this whole thing now with the Titans where they apparently, you know, essentially broke the rules. Who knows if they're going to be able to play against the Bills. You've got the weird thing where the Bills are playing next week, supposed to be on Thursday. There's talk, well, if they could get the Titans game in and they don't penalize them a game, necessarily that you might move the Chiefs Bills game from
Thursday to Saturday. There's all this nonsense. We can consider that game. I haven't given it too much thought because really hard to see them play.
Okay, here's the question I've got for you though, because I've been looking and I haven't seen it yet. Did you see what the Circa million two did for the Bills game?
No?
All right, Circa has changed their rules, and I don't know if DraftKings will follow this or if the Super Book will as well with the Super Contest. But if the NFL Tuesday at two am, that's the cutoff date. But before then, if they rule a team has forfeited and you picked the team like the Bills for instant right Bills against the Titans, if you if you win the circle picked the Bills this week and it's minus three in the circle. But so you picked the Bills
and the Titans forfeit, you win. Really you get a point. If you pick the Titans plus three and the Titans forfeit, you lose.
What if they postpone the game?
Uh? The game being postponed is interesting. I guess what it means. It's a they didn't say as to in the in the Circa Survivor, it goes down as a loss. They didn't verify our postpone replay game in I'm guessing it's going to be just basically it's a zero. It's a no play. You'd go with four games that week?
Yeah, interesting, It's it's.
A it's a game theory type of thing, where like, do you run the risk? Do you want to roll with it? If you you know? And then if they play, are you comfortable being on the Bills minus three? Because then that's your pick. So you gotta be comfortable at least thinking that they're gonna win.
Yeah, all right, well anyway, let's let's get into it. We're recording this because we've talked a little bit about this game. We're recording this at about six forty five Eastern on Thursday. So the Bears Bucks game is in play all right. By the way, Matt, this is Live News. It's six forty eight Eastern time. I just see a tweet from Adam Schefter because I have notifications up saying the Bill Titans Bills game that's scheduled for Sunday is being moved to Tuesday. Oh my gosh at six pm.
So long as there are no more positive tests in Tennessee, the Bills Chiefs game is being switched from Thursday to Sunday, but it goes back if more positive tests are found in Cincinnati. In Tennessee, Oh gosh, all right, so we've got craziness. I don't know. I mean, they've been new tests every day.
Wait, so so Tuesday at two am would not actually qualify for this then, because because Tuesday at two am is technically the game will we played that day? So now they've got to move that. Now, circu's going to move that back, I guess unless they rule that they're gonna I mean, so I figured that the NFL did not want to forfeit a game to the Titans, even though it sure sounds like they should.
Right, Yeah, you don't want to do that to a playoff contender.
You don't want to team versus another, I mean, two teams that have very good records.
Yeah. Well, anyway, look, so it's now six forty nine. But you know, we we talked a little bit. The pickens are slim. This weekend. You've got the Bucks taking on the Bears. Is this a game that you want to consider. I believe it's four and a half on DraftKings.
Yeah, it's it's a bummer because the line's three. And have you heard Mike Evans news yet? Is that?
Yeah? He's he is playing.
Okay, So Mike Evans minus three is my bet and I'll hold on. It's like, and I got actually physically do this while we're talking, because that was I've been waiting.
You're getting your bet in.
Yeah, I've been waiting for that new So I have to physically go ahead and bet.
Look how dedicated ye live on the podcast on the podcast YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
So okay, uh, I will talk, okay it so I just want to I wanted to make sure I had the minus three with Mike Evans playing. So four and a half is a little steep, it's a little heavy. I think it's a field goal game. So uh, in the DraftKings, I would say pass it because that's a point and a half different, So I would have to say four and a half is too heavy. But three is why I waited, waited for Mike Evans and Mike Evans minus three I took tempa.
Okay, good, I want to pass on it as well, So I'm glad you didn't have a very very strong lean on it. So that game's out. It's three and a half, by the way, and our consensus odds sixty five percent of experts are picking the Bucks at that spread. But we're going to pass that game. We're not going to go all right, Matt. You know what we do. We go back and forth. Here, you one, I do one. You gave me a couple that you were leaning on. I was, you know, a little hazardant on it. So
go ahead, start us off. What's your best player or however you wanna you are.
Put it the play that I like the best, or the Pittsburgh Steelers minus seven and seven, right or six and a.
Half, seven and a half, seven and a.
Half, fine, still take it. Don't like it, but I'll still take it. I don't like it, but I'll still take it. I think the Steelers are gonna be all over this. Pittsburgh did this Philadelphia Eagles team. And here's why the wide receivering class or grouping is still really banged up. And for whatever reason, when you look at the way that the Niners played, they didn't blitz Wentz nearly enough Blitzburg is gonna be all over Wentz. He's gonna have no time. He's got the yips still, Nick
Mullins was why the Eagles won that game. And that's why I really I was so strong on the Eagles last week because I really thought, you know what, this is gonna be a win for them because they're back to against the wall. But this is a team traveling from the East coast, s east coast to the West coast and back. And I think Pittsburgh is really solid defensively. I think it's a blowout Steelers blow up.
Man, see if it was like six and a half, I feel, okay, seven and a half. I'm not taking it off the table. It's not a game that I hate. Uh And you know, when I first looked at it, I try to just do a gut reaction to what I think. And I was like, oh, you know what, I'm getting the hook, getting the hook with the Eagles. You know they're coming off that win. You know, Wentz is crazy, but he you know, finds a way sort
of to get it done. But the more I dug into it, as long as this isn't a very classic let down, Although the Steelers scare me.
Just I know it's good. I'm glad they haven't played. They're rested well.
Certainly Deontay Johnson was in the concussion protocol. Now he's out, so he should be able to play. And I know he introduced Miss Schuster. Both practiced today fully so they should be fully healthy. And yet they're gonna blitz and it's not a good matchup right now for the Eagles. No. Seven and a half is good, but I'm gonna I'm gonna keep it on the maybe. Okay, so let's get well,
we'll keep it on the maybe. It's I'm not taking that one off the table, all right, my game that I like the most, and this feels like a trap game to me, Matt, So I'm just gonna do it.
Let me.
By the way, I'm looking at our bed analyzer, which tells you how everything comes out in terms of who our experts are picking or not. And I half the time it takes me two minutes to find the right game. Okay, you've got the line of seven on their consensus line, because again that takes in lines from all around the industry. We're stuck with, you know, when we're looking at it
we're looking at the DraftKings line at seven. You've got sixty three percent of people going with Pittsburgh laying seven, So they're on your side. That's fine. It's a maybe this feels like a trap game to me, Matt, But I don't know how I can feel like the falcon should be laying points to anybody at this point. I get that the Panthers we sort of not sure if we have the Panthers pegged or if we didn't have the Cardinals pegged. But the Panthers are playing a little better.
Their defense is not great, of course, they're often so pretty good. The consensus line, by the way, it's two and a half in the draft games contest, it's one and a half now in the consensus lines. There's not gonna be any Julio Jones here. He's almost certainly not going to play it in practice today. It would just be crazy to go after him like they're Their defense
is absolutely decimated and it's terrible anyway. They did get Torell back, but he is not ready really to do anything, and they have three receivers anyway, all of whom are capable of doing damage. So for me, I think the Panthers are going to win this game out right the fact. I mean, I know they're getting tow and a half's less than field goal, so it doesn't really matter. But for me, I don't. I don't see how the Falcons. I don't care where you're playing, it doesn't seem like the Falcons
would be favored over anyone. I think this is finally the game that gets to and Quinn Fire. So for me, game I like the most is probably the Panthers getting two and a half from the Falcons.
Can't hate on it, but I don't love it. And here is the reason why I don't love it. At some point, defenses and I know the Falcons are bad, but at some point defenses are going to realize what's happening here and they're going to change up and they're not going to expect the old school defensive, you know, the old school Stop McCaffery, stop the running game. They're throwing the ball a whole lot, and Bridgewater's been pretty good. Yeah,
so this is a really big public play. My biggest problem with this is this is everyone's pick this week, right everyone.
That's what I'm saying. That's why it feels sort of you know something.
That's why I'm scared about the line. I'm scared about just falling down backing the Panthers expecting them to rise up. And like, you know, Matt Ryan looked so bad against the Packers. I just couldn't figure. And he had Ridley and Julio playing and they both were shells of themselves. But it was just he looked half a second slow with processing everything and then his arm is done like he just him and Breeze are just like you know,
everyone thought Brady would wall fall off a cliff. I feel like those two dudes have fallen off of cliffs with their arm strength. It's just gone. There's nothing there behind the football. So that's my only concern is that it is everyone's play. But I don't hate it, and I would be comfortable. I would be comfortable rolling with it simply because it looks perfect, like everything lines up
for it, and oftentimes that's when you get burned. But this year is a weird year, and yeah, the public has been doing pretty well well.
That's also where I sort of have in my mind. We've been talking about it when we look at the way the DraftKings contest breaks down, we look at the pick distribution, it's so many public plays, but for the most part, the public plays have been hitting. So it is. I don't know if it's just a weird year. I don't know if it's because there are no fans or what's going on. But I completely agree with you that the public being on the Panthers here does make me concerned,
because it always makes me concerned whenever that happens. But still I can't I'm having trouble given the fact that there will be no Julio Jones, given how bad their defense is on a good day, and now given how the.
Game though it's a conference game, I get it. Man.
I look, I'm not putting it in. I'm not putting it out. I'm not scratching it like we scratched the Raiders and the Bills last one, where I said, I'm not doing that. So we've got two, I guess right now that are up in the air. Let's go to your next one.
All right, So my next one, and so I kind of feel the same way about a bunch of these. But okay, the number, let me just make the because I know the number in the circa. So the number for the Browns and the Colts.
Colts one and a half to the which is.
Really interesting that the Colts are favored in this game. Yeah, in the circa is are the Colts favorite of the Brown's favorite? I thought the Browns are favored in the circa That could be a wild split if that's the case. Hold on, let me check that out, because yeah, if that is the case, and that's a pretty that's a pretty big difference. But I do think the Colts are going to win that game. And I think the Colts are coming around to being one of the best teams
in the AFC. Their defense is not being talked about nearly enough. They're number one in the Indiana in the NFL with rush yardage given up right now. Their secondary is playing really really well. I know the Bears defense or offense. And we'll find out a little more about the Bears coming up to coming up on the for for Thursday night. But I just even one and a half. It's basically a pick them, right. I think the Colts win that game.
Oh my gosh, all right, I'm putting in pen because I thought you liked the Browns in this game, which is why when you first mentioned it too.
I think, by the way the circusars the Colts are, the Colts are yeah, yeah, So I I did look at the Browns and then I dug a little deeper into it, okay, And I looked at the defensive stats for the Colts, and I like the fact that the Colts are flying under the radar screen right now. And I don't like what's going on with Jonathan Taylor, but Philip Rivers as long as he's not being asked to throw deep, I think they're okay. And the Browns are off of that big one over the Cowboys, and I
feel like this is the typical team. They're three and one. This is where Baker Mayfield starts getting all swaggy and all crazy and doing dumb things and starts turning the football over. So I like the Colts here miss one one and a half.
So it's funny. I'm totally good with it. That is the consensus line. By the way, the the cults are laying one and a half sixty four in our bed analyzer are is with Cleveland. I actually expect Cleveland to be the heavier pick side on this game. And I don't really have I don't have a problem with it. I like the Browns. I like what Stefanski is doing.
I really really do. The Chubb injury does hurt I think a little bit more than people are understanding because Hunt is not built right now, especially that he's got the kind of lingering groin injury. He's not in there to be a twenty five touch back. They want to lean on the running backs. Duranis Johnson is fine, Hilliard is fine, but I think that is going to be a little bit more for me. The big thing is just the I still think the Cults are being underestimated
in the market. And part of it is I get it because when you look at what their offense has done over the past couple of games, they've just looked very meh, right, Like I mean John and Telly, like we talked about it. He just kind of runs into the line and you're like, where where's the explosive?
Me? What? Am I right?
They're not The receivers aren't aren't involved at all. But you know what, I think that they know they have a strong defense. Maybe not quite as strong as it looks because the offenses they've played. But this is why I like them against the Bears, not only is their defense strong. I think Reich is just holding back. I think when it's time to unleash some creativity in that offense, he's going to do it. And I think this is where it comes out. So I'm glad you like it
very much. I will take that as well. The cults. I'm gonna go with a pick that I know you don't like because it's a Matt paralim and they burned us last week. The consensus line on this game is the Texans laying six.
I knew you were. I'm on the other side of this.
This is Oh you like the Jaguars.
Yeah, this is Remember when I came on the Eagles last time and I said, I said, a friend of mine has has a guy who does stats and does lines on a mathful number, and the Eagles should have been minus plus three and they were plus seven and a half. This line should be seven, okay, And this line right now it should be Jaguars should be Jagged plus seven. It's Houston minus five and a half. Yeah, And so this is one of those you no, sorry the way around. Sorry sorry, this line should be three.
Excuse me, line should be three, right?
I was getting confused.
I'm sorry. This line should be three and it's six and a half. So it's three points of value on the Jaguars, and this is only two points of value on the Jaguars. But this is Houston after firing their head coach. Is this is why I couldn't play this game. And I'll probably pick it. I'll probably pick it in the circle, and I probably.
Will on six and a half, by the way, in the.
Six and a half in the circle. Okay, so the big point difference, yep. But here's I'm not excited about doing it, only because I don't know what direction the Texans go. You get rid of Bill O'Brien, there could be a rallying cry for this team. They could figure it out, or it's Romeo Cornell who is a horrible head coach, and they could be completely not prepared and they go out there and get their doors pulling off
by the Jacks. So I don't know. I mean, so I think this is a dog or pass game because of what's going on with the Texans.
Yeah, so we'll put it away. I'm not going to take the Jacks because I just I like the Texans side on it. To me, I do think that it can only benefit the team to have Bill O'Brien on. And I do think, and this is much more anecdotally because I haven't had the time to really dig into this, but I feel like there is a little bit of a quote unquote rally around the flag effect in that first game after a head coaches fired, where teams come
out a little bit more. And again the Jaguars, the big thing with them is their defense is pretty banged up. I mean, Miles Jack isn't practicing.
C J.
Henderson is battling his shoulder injury. De Jay Hayden's gonna miss the game. So for me, the injuries to the defense fine, but it is five and a half, and especially six and a half is, by the way, the consensus lines and the experts are roughly split on it fifty six forty four. So I'm fine to move on with that. I don't want to take the Jags, though, but I'm fine to move on from that. So go ahead to your next one.
The next one is one that is kind of a system play, and I know you're probably gonna shake your head out and say no, but the Bengals are catching thirteen and a half points thirteen and a half points. It's Joey backdoor cover baby. I just the Bengals. It may not be pretty, but Lamar Jackson's knee injury screams. Pull him in the third quarter, pull him in the fourth quarter, get him off the field, and then let Burrow go to work and let them lose by ten
and cover that thirteen and a half point line. It's gonna be part of my teaser. I'm teasing this. I'm gonna wait till this line gets to fourteen. I do think you'll get to fourteen.
And you're gonna tease it up to twenty.
I'm gonna tease it to twenty. I think the Bengals are gonna be in the I think the Bengal's gonna make this game closer than people realize because I think Burrow's that good.
Okay, I don't hate it. You know you said, oh you're gonna I don't hate it, but I'll put it on the pencil list. I could see it. And I do think Jackson, who misspractice again today with an illness, you know he's not at one hundred percent. But you know, let me ask you something like this. You've got another team catching thirteen and a half points, and that's the Raiders getting thirteen and a half from the Chiefs. Do you like that game on either side?
No, and I don't like it on either side. And I actually like that maybe the other side of my teaser. I haven't fully determined it yet, but if you can get twelve and a half for the for the Chiefs and then tease it down under seven, get to six and a half, I think the Chiefs maybe on the other side of that teaser that that I'll play with the Ravens and the Chiefs for four and ohero on these teasers so far here on the Daily Juice podcast, so I'm trying to expend that to five and oh here.
But I just think the Kanstie Chiefs are not I don't want to say they're angry, but they're not happy with the way they play against the Patriots offense right. They want to get after it. Having Henry Ruggs come back is gigantic for the Raiders' offense because it will allow Waller to get free over the middle. The problem without without the guy to take the top off the defense, safety's crept down and you really couldn't get the ball
to Waller. So for the last two weeks the Raiders really Waller wasn't visible, so I think he re emerges with then after you open up Waller, now you've got the over the top to Rugs and now you can run the ball more with Josh Jacobs. So their offense really does. Having Rugs there is a major, major piece to what they want to do. But on the road at Arrowhead, yikes.
For that it's not the same though, I mean, ara's not the same. I'm not going to push for that game because that's not a game that I am desperate off. It is worth noting both these games. The games are the big spread the consensus lines. So the lines in the Draftings sportsbook are thirteen and a half for both the favorites. The consensus lines that are going at and I don't know what they are in the circum at,
but they're they're closer. The Ravens are only laying twelve now in the contstant lines, and by the way, the experts are split right down the middle. It's fifty three percent even at twelve, so you're getting an extra point and a half there. For the Chiefs, they're only laying eleven on the consensus lines, and that's fifty eight percent leaning towards the Chiefs. So that's fine. I don't have a major feel in either one of them. Although if you came and you were definitely like, man, I love
both dogs, I would be willing to take it. It's terrifying to do it. It's a little more terrifying to go against the Chiefs. Yeah, because it's.
Twelve in the circle, by the way, Raiders plus twelve Bengals plus it's eleven and a half in the circus is a bit wow, big difference in points there. And to get two points of two points of value in the draft Kings contest versus the circa contest, all right, So all.
Right, I want to vomit, but let's put that one in pencil and be okay. So we've got a couple of leeks that are under consideration. We've only got one that we're definitely doing, with the Colts laying one and a half to the Browns, and then we've got the Steelers laying seven and a half to the Eagless definitely under consideration. The Bengals getting thirteen and a half from the Ravens and the Panthers laying two and a half to the Falcons,
which you know is a well we'll see. Uh what about the Cardinals laying seven and a half points to the Joe Flacco led Jets.
I mean, okay, hold on. Have you seen some of the stats for Kyler Murray.
Oh? I well, you can read them off if you look.
I'm just saying his completion he's last in the NFL in yards per completion.
Yeah.
I know, it's really scary to go and ask him to do anything. I'm really I'm nervous about that team and how they've regressed very quickly.
Yeah.
They the Cardinals are scaring the holy heck out of me. And I think Joe Flacco is playing for legacy. Uh uh oh, I think.
I mean, I mean, Matt, I will grant you everything you want to say about the Cardinals one hundred percent agree. They have not played well. I also, I don't know what Cliff Kingsbury is doing when they get close to the goal line, and even when they do give it to Kendon Drake, who has not played well and maybe battling and to remember, he was in that walking boot all in in, you know, and he has not looked good.
They don't just pound it up up the middle. They do these sweeps that go on the outside and they're just not gonna get done. The play calling is atrocious when you get there. I get all that, but it's the Jets, the Adam Gates led Jets with Joe Flacco playing for legacy. I mean, Joe Laco could be playing for a billion dollars and it wouldn't change how I feel about him as a quarterback. Now, look, anytime you're over a touchdown.
They're gonna lose. It's the question of public how much that's my worry.
We were like four seconds away from a win against the Broncos, which you and I both had. We were four seconds away from the Jets beating the Broncos, and they wound up losing by what nine, ten eleven, whatever that was. They are terrible. They're one of the worst football teams that I can remember watching. It's my own team, so I've seen a lot of bad teams.
But there If you don't like teams on East Coast, I just I'm I'm concerned about the Cardinals. I'm concerned about DeAndre Hopkins not getting the football in the right cases. I wish you know. I to me, this is like a prove it game, Like watch the Cardinals this this week and if they win by ten points and I'll be like, Okay, here they go. They they've rectified and fixed some stuff. But I just this is about asking one of these mediocre teams to go in and cover
anything on the road in the NFL. I don't know. I think it's hard on ten o'clock kick early start time. It's it's it worries me.
So I'll make you a deal. We're gonna take this one out. However, if the Cardinals massacre the Jets, from now on, my takes on the Jets, which are almost always going to be whatever.
It's your team, Yes, it's your team.
So yeah, whatever the spread is it's too small, Yeah, we're gonna We're gonna listen that. We're gonna give that more.
Look, if you want to stand on the table and tell me no, no, no, I love the Cardinals, so I I I'm okay. I mean I toldally going into the year this is a great team.
I'm just correcked.
I'm nervous about my own evaluation of these guys because I feel like Kyler Murray is regressing as a passer and he came out of the gate for firing and it looked awesome. And now it's like all this dink and dunk stuff isn't working, and I can't, like, where's Fitzgerald, Where's Kirk? Like where is this team right now? Offensively? And it's great when Kyler's running, But how long can you do that and have him be healthy?
Yeah? I mean, look, I think two weeks ago, it might have been last week where I said, Man, I just I think the market just hasn't caught up so that the Cardinals are really good now they're they're really struggling, I will say, And I'm not pushing towards this game. This spread, the contents of spread is seven and I'm looking at our bet analyzer, of our betting pros dot Com slash NFL slash bet dash analyzer, it is eighty
that's the most one sided game. Of the people who are picking games, it's eighty two percent are on the Cardinals to cover a seven point spread against the Jets. We'll take it off because as long as I can know that in the future, if there's and you might be right, I just I can't imagine. I mean Leveon Bell is coming back. I don't care. It just doesn't matter.
They are.
They are an historically terrible team, they really are. But let's go to your next pick then, okay, So well, I'm not even gonna put that one in pencil. We'll take it off. It's okay with me because I don't It's not like I love it, but it was one of the one and sosiying, do you have anything else that you're eyeing? Because I got a couple more than I'm maybe thinking about.
Not really, I mean, the only other game that I think we're gonna wind up taking in the Circa is I think we're gonna play that system, play on the Bills and lay the three and a half to see what the NFL might might come back and do, because I just I know we're sitting here on Thursday.
And what is the what? What is the spread?
It's three?
The Titans are laying three.
No, the Bills are laying three.
You know that in ours? The Titans are laying one and a half to the Bills, right, unless I wrote that? Did I write that down wrong? Please tell me I didn't.
You sent to me?
I sent to you. Good, look at the signs the Bills.
Are one and no the Bills are favorite mins one and a.
Half the Bills are favorite. I'm sorry, Okay, that would have been That would have been pretty great. That would have been great.
Monster that everybody. I mean, yeah, so I mean to me because I don't I'm not so sure that the Titans aren't gonna have something drop here that's going to be catastrophic on Saturday that the league's gonna come back and say, you're gonna forfeit this game. I mean, if the Titans aren't going to forfeit this game, no one will ever forfeit a game in the NFL, not that they want.
To know what could happen, Matt, you know what could happen? What I I forgot who somebody tweeted this sat It might have been Todd Furman, somebody tweeted out somebody said. What they should do is when you have these games, don't give the Titans a loss necessarily. I don't know if this would be fair because they're avoiding games with tough teams, But you give the Bills a win, like the Bills are credited with a win in the game, but you don't make the Titans take the loss on it.
They stay at whatever their record is and you just give the posing you can win. Now that's not really I mean, they play the Steelers, that's a tough game for them.
So just really congratulations, Jo hate that the books who have Bills, who have big liability on the Bills.
That's true.
Win total. That's crazy that Titan win totals as well, because you'd want them to actually have a loss there not a win. I guess it for win to win matter.
So who do you think is going to win this game if they do play?
Though? Well, you know what I think.
Yeah, you hate the Bills and you will never bet on the Bills.
You know where I am on this game, and I think this is the exposure game. I think this is the game where where finally the Titans play a solid game and Tannehill plays well because I think I think that Bills defense is horrible and I think this Bills team is finally gonna play a defense worth something. They haven't played a defense worth anything so far this year. Everyone they plays garbage defensively. So if I had to bet it, give me the three points in the in
the Titans. If I was betting it, with money. I'll take the Titans plus three at home.
And you're gonna play it in the circle, though, but you're gonna play it for the Bills. Is that what I mean?
We're debating it. We're gonna wait all the way till right before the deadline to see if the NFL on Saturday decides to make the Titans forfeit, and then if they don't, then we'll just go ahead and play it. We'll either replace it or we'll play it. We'll have a way we want to play it. But that's the We have four picks and we're kind of waiting on the waiting on that game to see what's gonna happen.
All right, let me give you another play that I know you're gonna hate because it goes against Russell Wilson and it's the Vikings getting six and a half from the Seahawks.
So in Seattle at home, you're going you're taking Kirk Cousins on the road against Ross Well sort of this time in prime time.
Also not a good fact for me. I agree that.
Russell Wilson with his numbers in primetime, these things are at home against Kirk Cousins in primetime.
These things are not good. These things are not good facts for me saying that this is bet where we could take. However, let me offer some counterpoints. There are a couple of things. Number one, of course, there are no fans, so I realized that that may not matter, you know, when you think about it. But for me, the way I think about that is the huge home field advantage that the Seahawks have. This is just more
that they're comfortable and they don't have to travel. So that is something, but it's not nearly the same at as what it was in that stadium where it was crazy. I think the Vikings have really now changed, and I think we didn't see it when we bet the Texans
last week against them. As bad as the Texans played, I think getting Justin Jefferson more involved and essentially taking that Stefan Diggs role is going to allow them to put up a ton of points and Seattle's Can you admit at least that Seattle's defense stinks?
Oh no, yeah, yeah, yeah, no, there's no debate in that Seattle's defense is definitely not good. I'm not going to deny that. It's just that Wilson is so on this MVP watch that it's something else and that secondary for the Vikings is who's guarding dk metcalf? Oh?
I agree, but who was guarding them last week against the Dolphins and they didn't have this? I mean I realized their home now and it's prime time. It's not like Wilson went. I mean, Wilson not a great game, right of course, and they put up plenty of points, but that game was kind of that wasn't you know? That the Dolphins decide that they're not going to settle for all those field goals, and that's a game. I mean,
that's something that's close. The Seahawks don't usually blow teams out, especially teams that can put up a ton of boys.
Remember points, a blowout, no, but more points. They usually play one.
They usually play one score games. And who have they beaten so far this year? Matt like, go through their games? Okay, they've beaten the.
Dolphins, Patriots with cam at home.
Yeah that was good. That was good. But they barely squeaked they barely Okay, chill out, that's fine. Then who did they beat? You know, kind of a hard fought game, the Falcons, right, garbage? And then who did they beat the Cowboys, right, the other team they garbage mostly garbage.
Was a garbage Yeah, yeah, no, I agree, But the same thing can be some of the Bills. I mean, you're so good, you're raw, raw, Josh Allen.
Man, Come on, you know.
Who's played a tougher schedule, The Bills or the Seahawks.
Okay, who's the Bills played?
The Jets, the Jets, the Dolphins, the Rams, the Rams, uh and the and the Raiders.
Yeah, neither one. But I'm not sitting here and saying that Russell Wilson sucks or the Seahawks suck. I'm just saying that I don't know necessarily if they are this complete juggernaut.
I'm not gonna make you Kirk Cousins to do anything in primetime that is.
I think that's I think if you're if you're avoiding Kirk Cousins outside of a one o'clock Eastern game, you're fine.
Time that dude bright lights, no way.
All right, So we're running out of choices here. Let me get down a couple other giants getting nine and a half from the Cowboys. By the way, I will say that on our bed analyzer, the vast majority of experts it's the second most heavily sided game, which is the Seahawks to cover the seven points. Bread, I'll just put that out there. I don't care. I'll do what I want. But yeah, yeah, Faith, I'm getting nine and a half from the Cowboys. What do you think?
Why are you so interested in your bad Giants team?
Is it like I'm not I'm going to the next game. I don't like that game. I'm just now saying I'm out of games. I thought you were too. Are you? Do you have anything?
I want? Absolutely nothing. I won't watch a single second of this game. I want no part of anything to do with the Giant, with Dallas and the Giant because it's fine because you know what back door is coming, right, I mean, Dallas is gonna go up, Everyone's gonna relax, and then Danny's gonna start throwing.
It's going to go into like, oh, I'm on the Giants side here. If I have to be on the.
Side, yeah, I just I don't trust the Cowboy and I also don't trust the Giants not to lose my fifty.
Totally fine, So it's not a game that we need to go near at all. I think if you want to bet on either one of these teams. You're just insane, insane. And again it's minus nine on our consensus lines and the experts are fifty one forty nine, so it's completely split, all right, So do you have any others or do you want to go through their main game?
What about Sam fran at home with Garoppolo plays?
Ah?
What what half our lines? Eight and a half?
Eight and a half? I worry a little bit again, I mean it, you know, didn't look that great the last last week.
But I worry a little moans with two interceptions.
Yeah, not about the forty nine ers. I mean more about the Dolphins. I feel fine with the forty nine ers, but again that the forty nine ers, their their defense is so decimated and you get the good fits and you could easily keep that game within a touchdown right by the way, it's that's legitimately. I've sorted it right now by most experts side with somebody and fewest experts and fifty fifty is Dolphins and forty nine ers covered the spread and our bedanaliz our myself, and that's how
I am. I don't have a good lean for that. You like it? Moster may come back as well, and Garoppolo may come back. That makes me feel a little better.
Plays. I'm I think the forty nine ers beat you love it? He beat him badly. Yeah, I think Kettle has a monster game. I think that that at home. I think that's just one of those West Coast East coast type matchups that if you get Groppolo back healthy, they just run them over and they just kill him. But I don't. But again, Groppolo coming back has to play, and that's a big question mark still as to whether or not he's gonna play. If it's Nick Mullins, I want no part of the game.
All right. How about what do you think about the Washington football team getting seven and a half from the Rams.
See, here's the thing with this quarterback change. I don't know what Kyle Allen's gonna do, so, I mean, and also it doesn't sound like the hook won't be that far away from Allen and they may go to Alex Smith. I mean, there are plenty of questions to Ron Rivera about Alex Smith's availability, and he was like, Alex Smith is cleared to play. And if Alex Smith is, if doctors say he can play, he can play. If we
need him, we're gonna play him. So, I mean, I don't know who plays quarterback, So that worries me a little bit about what's like what happened with the with the Falcons and and Nick Foles coming in. It's like all of a sudden, you make a switch and a light bulb goes off and one of those guys gets hot, and well.
That's what I'm not I mean, for me with the hook, I actually like Washington. Now, Chase Young, I think he's gonna play. Oh he's practicing right now.
J Young plays, then I could probably subscribe to that. I could probably, I could probably get.
I mean, I think I think whoever's out there, Kyle Allen Colin's not a great NFL quarterback. And I always have to qualify this map because sometimes I feel like on the Fancy Bros. Podcast, where like, oh that guy stinks. To be clear, anybody playing in the NFL is better at playing football than any of us will ever be at anything in our lives. So just bear that in mind. But Kyle Allen not great. But we're talking about Dayne Haskins year, he's an upgrade. Alex Smith would certainly be
an upgrade. Alan knows that system because he obviously familiar. I think it's an upgrade. The Rams really did not look impressive last week. You know, we we've been singing their praises a little bit. I remember they were getting killed right in that game against was Dallas against the Bills. They alway killed against that game against the Bills, the Rights, and then they just they managed to make it a
game at the very end. I don't know what happened. Well, obviously you think the Bills think, but you know, if Young does play, I kind of might be willing to take the hook. And again it's it's minus seven ore consensus odds seventy two percent are going with the Rams. But this feels like, you know, getting more in a touchdown. If Young play is going to Alan and having Alex Smith by the way as your backup, which is an upgrade, right, that might be a game that I would doubtle on.
Yeah, no, I can get behind that. I can at seven and a half. It does come down to come down to I need Chase Young out there to get after in disrupting who I think is mister happy feet and Jared Goff. So I think you need to make it make his life a little more miserable than it's been. So if you have young out there being able to get out to the quarterback and disruption and interrupting the offense, is that, yeah, I can get by in seven and a half.
Sure, Okay, all right, so let's let's put that as a as a maybe for sure. How how do you feel about your team laying ten and a half to the Broncos. I'm assuming they play now on Monday night, Prime Time ten and a half.
This is the biggest no play of the week. You cannot go near this game. I mean, we don't know about CAM. I mean yeah, and then if it's if it's not going to be Cam, are they gonna play Hoyer?
I mean no, They're going to Stidham? All right? Hoyer was terrible said that.
Belichick won't say that. He's been asked point playing three times. Now, are you going to go to Stidham if Cam is not available?
How can you go back to Hoyer after what you saw against the Chiefs.
I really think that here's my conspiracy theory, and this is could be way off, but here's what I think. I think the Patriots know that Jared Stidham's their quarterback next year, regardless of what happens with Cam this year. And then Cam knows that too, and I think they
know they've got something. Instead of that they needed another year to season him, to get him really up to speed and ready to go, kind of like a Patrick Mahomes situation where in practice everyone's like, oh my gosh, this kid can play now, and we're really excited about it. And I think this team is wanting to avoid a quarterback controversy if Sidheam goes out and sets the world on fire and then Cam comes back and they've already
given a year to Cam. This is your year. Cam, come here and play for a year for us, give us everything for one year, and then go and cash in. I mean, Cam has been pretty honest, honest. It's like it's a business trip. His family hasn't moved there, like he has no plans to staying long term, and because of that, he has to know that like he he hasn't said, like, well, maybe I'm the quarterback in the next year and if I play well enough, give me
a contract. It's like Sideam's the guy. So I think that's why they're either a protecting him, not wanting to get hurt or be not wanting to cause a quarterback controversy.
Okay, so you think Sindham's not going to play in this game, even if Cam, If Cam, I think.
They're going to play Hooyer. I think that they're gonna be stubborn about this, and I think until he struggles, until he sucks, in which he probably will, I think that they will then turn around and go to stidheam in it in an emergency if they have to, but I think it's their preference to play Hoyer.
And with that, let's say there is no Camp. Let's say they do go with Hoyer and maybe we find out about it before time locks. There's no Stevan Gilmore in this game because he's on COVID and there's probably not gonna be locked. So you're dealing with Brett Rippon. I get it, but he.
Didn't look that bad till the second half.
Would you take and a half ten and a half?
Yeah?
I would, yeah, because that was my first instinct, YE was I might take the Broncos here. What if it's Stidham, though you don't like it.
If it's Stidham, I'm a little more concerned because I think the Hey can play, but without Gilmore, I think you're gonna I think Judy could go off, right, So I think there's the potential to have a big game for the wide receivers against the Patriots defense. And let's be frank, the Patriots always put up a huge fight against the Chiefs because they spend in you know, three weeks prepping for that game, and then the Broncos don't get the same attention and you're expecting to run the ball.
I think Damien Harris is going to be an absolute monster, so I think he had one hundred yards. It was the first game the Patriots lost. It was They're now fifty to two in their last fifty two games when they have a rusher goal for for one hundred or more yards, so that it is really rare for them to have a one hundred yard rusher and lose. So I think they're gonna run the ball a lot with with Harrods and that shrinks the game, and that could factor into a ten point victory. And we went on
a hook. So I don't mind the ten and a half there. I feel that's that's a pretty heavy number.
Yeah, I might be willing to do that one. Okay, let's I think there's only one game that we haven't talked about, and that is the Saints ling eight and a half to the Charters.
So this is a I don't like this number, all right. Yeah, but justin Herbert getting named the starting quarterback for the Chargers for the rest of the year, I think is a pretty significant rallying CRI as they head to New Orleans. Because it's his guy, it's his job, it's his team.
There's no more looking over your shoulder, and you get to go and build that rapport, in that relationship with the with your teammates, and you're Mike Williams and say, hey, this is guys Hunter, Henry, this is who we're gonna go and this is our guy now. And I don't like this Saints offense. Eight and a half's pretty heavy if I don't like the game. But if I had to bet it, I'll dike the Chargers.
Wow, Yeah, I don't like it. It's a stay away from me. I get it. You're making good points. I don't want to you don't want to bet really on Kirk Cousins in primetime. I don't really want to bet against Drew Breese in primetime a girl, though I know, I know there wasn't a good performance a couple of weeks ago. Okay, So here's what we're looking at, Matt. We got one game that we're both like, yep, we're good on, and that's the Colt slang one and a
half to the Browns. I think we should probably write in the Steelers laying seven and a half to the Eagles, because I do like that one. So I'll put that one in in pen. After that, we've got a bunch of sort of questionable ones, and I guess what we're gonna do here is we'll maybe we'll just say that we'll wait it and we'll tweet it out because we'in at Dan Harris Adi Sports Talk, Matt. Here are the
ones that are under consideration. The Broncos getting ten and a half from the Patriots, which is heavily under consideration if Cam is out, especially, and then we'll figure that out. The Washington football team getting seven and a half from the Rent if Chase Young plays. We also kind of lean that way. The Bengals getting thirteen and a half from the Ravens, which I feel sick about. But I
am starting to lean that way. And the Panthers getting two and a half from the Falcons, which we both agree is to public play, and I'm just more on the I'm okay to take a public play this year ticket? Yeah, oh yeah, so if you're good with that when I put it.
In, but ticket, I mean, I'm okay, I'm okay with it. I mean again, it's I was always arguing with friends of mine who like the Falcons and have been I have one friend in particular that really is a sharp guy who loves the Falcons for whatever reason. He thinks that they just get tons of value because everybody thinks
they stink. But I think I think they stink. So it's like it's like, great, you could have all the value you want on the line and the numbers, but I think I just think the Falcons stink.
Right, and they're so banged up. So I think those three the Steelers link seven and a half to the Eagles, the Colts getting one and a half, laying one and a half to the Browns, and the Panthers getting two and a half from the Falcons just pretty much in.
But real quick. For the record, I have bet against the Panthers the last two weeks and lost. Yeah, if I bet we bet on them and they lose this week out, they become my new Texans.
That's fine. I'll take that. I'll take that. I don't I don't have a good feel for that either.
I want I'm part of them the rest of the year. They are eighty six. We're not dealing with the Panthers anymore.
I think that's fair. I think that's fair about it. All right, that's different Today and Matt mentioned that he host a Daily Juice podcast, which I said in the beginning to that is a great podcast, and I really enjoyed it every morning when you wake up Matt sort of and his little community which he's got. Now if you go on Twitter you can see hashtag you can see everything you go through, the best bets of the day.
It's a really good listen. Also again eleven a m Eastern eight am Pacific on Sunday mornings, Matt does a full show, breaking them the slate and giving prop bets. I always give him a couple as well in addition to what he's been doing. He's been really successful. So go check it out.
Yeah, pretty good too.
By the way, thanks.
Thanks.
I mean it's part. It's like my job is to project players for Fantasy.
I mean you gave me. I I message you about the one of the props for the under on Ezekiel Elliott that I thought was accurate, and you were you nailed it. I mean I said, yeah, it was eighty five and a half. You said seventy three. I think he ran for fifty five.
Yeah, yeah, no, I did have that one always makes me nervous going against Zeke, but yeah, so I will give Mad some as I usually do on Sunday nights on Saturday nights, and he can relate to the audience. But definitely check it out YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. Subscribe you'll see it every live stream every Sunday morning,
Eastern time at eleven. In the meantime, we are going to put in our picks as we'll wait and I'll tweet them out when we make our final decisions, usually on Saturday night, and we will talk to you next week, doing the same thing for week six.