Week 5 CFB Lookahead with Thor Nystrom (Ep 207)

college football game. Actually went and saw Syracuse play them in the Carrier Dome my freshman year. So we don't actually have to talk about that game because it's an FCS opponent. But Kansas is going to be going up against Iowa State. They are two point favorites in this There are three point favorites in this one. You have it at two points. Let's talk about that game for a second year. How are you? First off, how are you doing and how are you feeling about this Kansas game.

and Houston. So I mean you have to yank them up in the power rankings, and it just becomes a question of how far Iowa State last week did not acquit themselves super duper well at home against Baylor. A Baylor a team that had had a bunch of injury concerns and then had guys coming back stuff like that. They hadn't played good offense up until play in Iowa State.

I think this is an objectively fair line, but it's also a game for people that have a conviction on either Kansas or Iowa State, this would be the game to play at your flag. But just as far as the marketplace, this is a fair number.

potential matchup for college game Day here. But let's talk about a couple of the games that you have a big discrepancy on between you and the book, starting with Louisville versus Boston College. Again, most of these games not gonna be against the headline grabbing teams because this is where the value is. And you've got this spread at eleven, the spread actually existing at sixteen and a half in favor of Boston College. Here.

then that thing went up in smoke. But Boston College has all kinds of problems, mainly on offense. That the huge one is their offensive line, which a couple of years ago and you know then going back several years had actually been really good. It was one of the things the program did consistently well. But that unit is absolutely created and it's one of those things where that's

wasting what is good talent. Like at the other positions, like Phil Jerkobek is probably going to be drafted even though he's having this terrible season because of his offensive line, and Zay Flowers, his best receiver, probably going to be drafted too. They did have a season ending injury to report. I believe it was to their defensive end, so they're also having some to their best defensive lineman, so they're also having some injury concerns as well. This is a

really tough one because I do not like Louisville. I like I look for opportunities to fade Louisville, but it's also exceedingly hard to trust Boston College. And like I said, I tried last week and it didn't work out for me. That my system still is showing the value on Boston College, even with how far I pulled them down in my power rank case. I'm not sure yet though if I'll end up buying a ticket on that if I can ride another one with Boston College. But that's what the week.

As far as handicapping, let me.

up against Arizona State. The sun Devil's getting twenty three and a half points on the road here in Los Angeles. Where are you going in this one? Do you think this line is where it should be.

Utah last week. They got close. I think they lost by twenty one points, and they were like closed as like sixteen and a half point sixteen and a half something like that point underdogs, But they don't look good at all, and obviously they're they're trending down. USC did not look great for large swathet swatch swath is swat

swaths swaths. Yeah, okay, we were going to get there of that game against Oregon State on Saturday night, but you've got to give enormous credit to USC for pulling that one out because they had to play that game the way Oregon State wanted it to be played, not the way that USC wanted it to be played. It turned out to be this low scoring, methodical kind of game that USC was able to pull out by a

field goal. USC didn't cover that game in Core Vallas, but I actually think that's a super impressive win because Oregon State is what you know, way better this year, et cetera, et cetera. Yeah, I mean I tend to think that USC is going to roll over Arizona State, But twenty three points is a lot, although I by the time this thing gets to kick, I would imagine it's going to be twenty four and a half. Now.

you know, et cetera, et cetera. Against this USC team that when they played bad teams, they've been you know, rolling them and then they were able to pull that game out last week. The USC has been playing these teams that played different ways, you know, starting out the season, and they're winning each time. Stanford wanted to slow it down against them, they beat them. Rice did it the week before, and they slap Rice around. Rice is actually a little bit better than we thought they were going

to be. The Rice upside Houston yesterday, and then this past game against Oregon State they were able to play the way Oregon State wanted to play and they beat them as well. So, I mean, USC, you know, was still trying to get a feel on exactly what you know. Are they at top five team? Are they a top ten team? Are they a top twenty team? You know with the power ranking stuff like that. But for me on this line, I'm not going to touch you. At

least early in the week. I'll see what the market does, I'll do my handicap, and then I'll make a decision later in the week.

only they're only going off their memory. They might get some sticker shock looking at this line. Arizona be in favor by eighteen. I do think you can justify it just by how well Arizona's played last week. I was expecting a little bit better from Arizona playing Cal, just because Cal's a limited team. But Arizona had impressed me in the weeks before that. They beat the FCS's best team,

North Dakota State. North Akota State, a team who's better than a whole bunch of different FBS teams, and then you know, beating San Diego State in the opening game on the road by three possessions. I believe stuff like that. So it's another one where do you want to hold your nose on a really crappy team on the idea that you're getting a few points of line value or you know, go the other direction. For me, it's probably another one where I'm staying away.

about them. They were a team that I was just a little bit lower on than the marketplace heading into the season because it was an FCS team jumping up and you know, to the FBS their first year in the FBS, and you go back, like the last ten to fifteen years, the teams that have done that historically their first year they take the step back, which you would intuitively think James Madison has not. They have not so far. And beating Appalachian State was a real feather

in the cap. James Madison had slapped around Middle Tennessee and the opener, and I was higher on Middle Tennessee coming into the year than the market place and so that that was my first one of like, am I wrong about Middle Tennessee or am I wrong about James Madison? And it turns out that I was wrong about James Madison. So I have definitely toggled James Madison up in my power rankings. But Texas State can also do some different stuff.

They're a team that, like when they played the you know, power fed teams or whatever, the system can't overcome the talent discrepancy and they you know, it's basically like the nerd in high school getting his hands tied by in his back and getting shoved in a locker. But like when they play the teams that are around them in talent, that's when the scheme and the way that they practice and the conditioning can start to benefit them because you know,

they play up tempo. Spivatal is now I believe in his fourth year there, you know, and they can get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. They brought in a quarterback too, that there was a better fit for spivotal system in Lane Hatcher kid who came from Arkansas State. As far as this number of it's you know, I mean, it's a lot of points to lay on with James Madison. I think I would probably go the other way on this one and lean towards the underdog

with Texas State. With how many points you're getting. My justin line on it is James Madison minus fifteen point five and this one's you can explain the inflation on this one just by James Madison coming up that win against appleach and State. But you would sort of anticipate after the biggest win of their young FBS life to this point that the effort the next week you might have a little bit of a letdown spot.

Like in those those first three games, the other one being Troy, where you had all of college football's eyes on you. You came out flatt in that one because that was another bad situational spot and then you had to furiously come from behind to pull that one out in front of your home, your home fans. Then the next week you turn around and face this team that

was ANFCS steam last year. I don't think that Apple Ach and State was happy with their effort in that game coming out of it, and so yeah, I think that the result of it probably flattered James Madison, even though I don't want to take away from James Madison what they did because they have been super impressive so far.

the FBS, because the worst one it's FIU. So, I mean, Vegas had to bring that one up a bit because New Mexico State showed that they could win by margin against a very, very, very bad team, but they were greatly aided by Hawaii in that game. New Mexico State couldn't throw that much on Hawaii, and even the rushing stats, it was like the efficiency wasn't there. It was just like they were just running for these long touchdowns because

Hawaii can't tackle or fill the gaps. So, I mean, can can you get at least competency out of FIU? We'll see about that ask It's a tough ass. I mean, again, they are the lowest team in the FBS in my power ratings, they're even lower than Hawaii. Still, Hawaii may have taggled down to one thirty at this point, but FIU remains what one thirty one. Fau's got problems on both sides of the ball. But for me, it's tough because this is sort of my same take about last week,

which was wrong. You know about the New Mexico State line against Hawaii, But for me, it's it's the same case in this one. It's just more inflated against potentially a little bit worse of a team. But fifteen and a half points having to lay that with New Mexico State, it's a bridge too far for me, knowing how bad that team has.

We had a very DJN Christmas where a couple of my former co workers and I went down on the strip, toreed a bunch of different casinos, hitting different table games and such, and we capped off Christmas Eve watching Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl and trying to set up a nice meddle with Cole McDonald there. The man had a farm. You have to trust him. But that Hawaii team is just absolutely pitiful, can't even take advantage of the time

difference in massive travel. But this Florida International team, like you said, is awfully terrible. I don't know about laying with New Mexico State either. But let's talk about some of the bigger teams here. Now we do have a couple games. There are a couple teams on rest, but we still have a couple of games to talk about. By far, one of the marquee matchups here is going to be Alabama versus Arkansas. It's gonna be fifteen and a half in favor of Bama. What have you thought

about Arkansas so far this season? And do you think that this line is where it should be. Fifteen and a half doesn't feel like a lot of points to land Abama game.

a fair number. I was hoping for a little bit better from Arkansas last week against A and M. I didn't I didn't bet it just because you know that number two fell right on my thing and the game result ended right around where the spread was or whatever. But I do trust kJ Jefferson. I like him as

a quarterback. I like the running backs that they have there as well, and it seems like they've they've done an okay job figuring out how to sort of, how do I say, is spread the usage that used to just be funneled towards Alon Burks sort of around the skill guys, you know, and then a little bit more to kJ and to keep the offense going. You know, that was probably my singular concern about the Hogs over the offseason, was you lose this guy that you funneled,

you know, X percentage of your offense to. You know, how are you going to do with that? The the thing that concerns me a bit is their secondary and

they've had health concerns there, et cetera. Texas A and M was not a team that was equipped to take advantage of that both because of their bad quarterback play, and then they really only have the one sort of I don't really want to call an Ia Smith a receiver because he's both he and Odd Chane are more offensive weapons than they are running back or wide receiver, but like you know, their A and m's receiving core is limited. And then an Ia Smith suffered very unfortunately

a season ending injury during during that Arkansas game. But I mean, Arkansas, do they have enough to keep this game within two touchdowns? I think so? But this the I mean yeah, theoretically, yeah, but the secondary issues are gonna come to the four here potentially if they're not

patched up. Because Alabama's passing game is I mean, obviously as talented as any other passing game this side of Ohio State, and now it appears to even have ticked up, because there was those couple of games where it had played down and Saban was doing weird things with the depth chart, like he was playing the true freshman apprentice.

He wasn't playing a couple of the older receivers, and it was weird just because it was at the beginning of the season and Bryce Young did not appear to be on the same page with his receiving corps at all times, and he you know, he played down in the Texas game, stuff like that. You know, it was Vanderbilt last week. But things were looking good for Alabama

and not only that. Ja Cory Brooks for instance, a guy who strangely, over the first three games, I don't know if he was in the doghouse or what was going going on there, but he was expected to be like their number two receiver this year, and he was on a milk carton over the first three games. Well, last week they finally play the kid, and he absolutely torched Vanderbilt. You had like six catch one hundred and

twenty five yards some like that, two touchdowns. So I feel like Alabama is getting a better sense of its receiving cores and how the pieces work together because they have several different players in that receiving corps who have the disparate skill sets, you know, like you know, sort of like a basketball team, you know, where you have your point guard, you have your small forward, you have

your center, et cetera. And I think that that Saban's getting a better idea that now you're getting Harroll back to the kid, they had brought in from Louisville. He's the deep speed merchant. He was supposed to be the analog for Jamison Williams. So now that receiving corp is going to go way up. That's the key to this game. Ken Arkansas defend Alabama's passing attack.

And the hilarious thing was it was for way more than a football game. There was reports that Auburn was going to fire Brian Harson immediately after that game if they lost, and it very much appeared like Missouri was going to win it because it very much appeared like Auburn did not want to win it. And then despite themselves, Auburn somehow managed to pull that thing out, despite all these shenanigans and the fact they couldn't throw the ball

and stuff like that. I'm not impressed with Missouri at all, and the fact that they kept it close with Auburn on the road. I think in past years you'd give them a little bit of a feather in the cap for that. Not this year, not with that Auburn team. That that was the sort of thing where you remember last week, Thomas, when they Arizona State fired herm and then they started to come out the stories of like, you know, the assistants hated him so much that they

were given the game plans to the opposing coaches. I don't know if that was true or not, but like, you know, you almost started to think, like, is that what Auburn is doing with you know, trying to get hardest and how they they given the game plan away and Missouri still couldn't capitalize on it. Definitely do not trust Missouri. Certainly do trust Georgia, but that it's a big line. You have four touchdowns, that's a big line to lay on the run.

home to Delaware. They weren't competitive in some of the other you know, like in the in the other couple ones, and you know, you were wondering, is this gonna be another nightmare year for ken Yamatalolo, and and you had the thing of you know, we talked about this on previous shows, Thomas how Over the offseason, the NCAA had banned cut blocks outside the tackle box, which only hurt triple option teams pretty much because they were the teams that ubiquitously did it, like whereas a part of what

they actually did, and it seemed like that was actively destroying the Navy team. But then on Saturday, like I, you know, I already had stuck a you know, like an industrial size fork into the back of this Navy team. And then I'm just watching the games mine in my own business, and I look at the scoreboard and they're given East Carolina game and they end up pulling it out. I believe in double overtime. Navy ends up winning on the road at EASYU. EASYU is a legitimate team. This year.

They're gonna make a ballgame, So I mean that was all legitimate went was that one game of easy? You just overlooking the opponent? Or has Navy figured out how to play under these new rules? Sometimes it does take some of these triple option teams a little bit, you know, like I don't want to use the metaphor with you know, with with with Navy, but getting their sea legs under them.

And sometimes they need that because you know, you have the guys that graduate typically for them the service academies, they're replacing more starters than the typical team because it's usually like the upperclassmen and then they'll graduate, you know, YadA, YadA. So that's the big question on this one is the Navy side. The Air Force team is very consistent. I mean they're just good. So like with them, you feel pretty good about what you're getting there. Navy's the grab big.

If you get the first three weeks Navy, they're going to get absolutely annihilated. If you get anything close to last week Navy, this is going to be a close game. And Thomas as you know that like the best bet in sports betting going back like twenty years is just just blindly betting the under in every game between service academies because the cloud is always running and the against

the spread record on that is absolutely insane. And there's a corollary to that rule, which is if one of the teams is favored by double digits, you grab the dog. So in terms of that, that would lean towards Navy. But again, this is a game I'm going to look into the next couple of days. I you know, my number on that game is nineteen, So my system certainly leaning Air four. The circumstances and history would suggest Navy. The early season stuff again, first three weeks not Navy.

Last week would suggest Navy. So it's just a game you got to get into on the handicap.

Iowa once, of course, wants to ugly the game up, wants to turn every game into a rock fight, and Michigan doesn't have the offensive talent or doesn't even have the offensive scheme. I think we're they're able on a defense, It's as good as Iowa's because Iowa has the top ten defense to be able to put up a bunch of points where you feel comfortable laying double is on the road of them. I do feel it's a fair line, absolutely, but circumstantially in game script wise, I would rather have Iowa.

I think if the line is ten or above, and if you're interested in Iowa, it's probably a circumstance where you want to wait until later in the week because I can't imagine that the betting market is going to be betting on Iowa this week. I can't imagine they're going to be like a popular pack. So I mean, like later in the week you can probably get you know, certainly ten and a half or a little bit higher.

But this game's funny because over the summer, I got this buddy in town, and you know, I live in Minneapolis, but I got this buddy named Steve and he's he's a Michigan alum, and he's an enormous Michigan homer, and we were talking, uh one of these summer nights, we were having some beers, and he asked me what I thought the line for this game was going to be, and so I tossed out a number, and he tossed out a number, and we began negotiating on what what

are what would become a bet that we were going to make on this game, and unfortunately for me, I stopped the negotiation at I accepted Iowa plus six. So it with on that one from over the summer, I'm getting the short end of the stick. But you know around that time that over the summer, that's about where you know, the look at look aheadline would have been. Obviously, Iowa hasn't specifically, their offense has not looked at as as uh, they haven't even looked mediocre. We were hoping

for mediocre. We have not gotten mediocre.

or Iowa's going to spring the outright offset. I don't see a scenario where it's like Iowa loses close because I feel like if Iowa is able to do what Iowa wants to do, that's this scenario where Iowa wins close, and if Iowa can't do what Iowa want If Michigan just asserts their will in Iowa, I think they're going to boat race Iowa.

And so you know, Vegas is anticipating the market going a specific way, and I think that's where you see the couple points of discrepancy, or it's the other way of the opponent is a team that literally nobody wants to bet on, and so you you actively have to incentivize the market by you know, by by putting the tax on the other side or whatever to try to get some bets on that team, because the book is not trying to beat you. I think that's something out

there that people don't really understand exactly. The book only wants fifty percent of the money on both sides. It's all they want. That is my goal.

fifty action. Of course, there's factors that are beyond that, but like, if the books had fifty to fifty action on every game from tomorrow until the end of time, they would make they would make amends because you're just getting the big on each one guaranteed money.

I do of Rutgers the Scarlet.

They started out three and all last week they got put into the Iowa blender and they ended up losing that game. Twenty seven to ten. They didn't get there the touchdown until the end of the game, so it was arguably even worse than that for you know, for them like offensively or whatever. But I feel like in this one, with how many points that is, I just

feel like it's just too many points. I also think there's a little bit of like, I'm not sure that that I mean both, you know, a couple of different things. First of all, Ohio State is already you know, they've they've mentioned going back in September that defensively, they have not unveiled their whole defensive scheme, that they have purposely kept things a bit vanilla and save save some of the some of Jim Knowles's like wrinkles and stuff like

that for later on in the season. You're not they going to unveil them for Rutgers, And they didn't have to last week again against Wisconsin because they found out right before that game that both the Wisconsin's offensive tackles were gonna miss it. So, I mean, they that one was almost in the bag before it started. And then

you're interested in the relationships. I mean, it's gonna be the prerogative of day against Schiano but you wouldn't necessarily think at the end that you know, it's it's gonna be like you know, Day is going to be actively going to try to get like a fifty point win. This is a lot of points for a team in Rutgers. That is not pathetic anymore. You know, you don't put them down like where you have Colorado or you have like some of those just low end of the barrel

type P five teams. They're better than that now. I mean, you know, granted they're you know, they're probably gonna be a five and seven team or whatever. I just feel like that that that's too many points. So I mean, you know, it's one of those hold your nose and jump. But I don't think that Ohio State, like I said, is going to be putting their entire arsenal towards Rutgers. I do think Rutgers can stay within that number.

Julian Fleming had missed the first couple of games. So yeah, I mean they've been trying to figure it out, and they've been playing like gangbusters with the guys on the field, you know, of course, But yeah, I mean, we'll have to see. And this also feels like a game of where Ohio State has X amount of guys who are

you know, somewhere between probable and questionable. Right now, this very much feels like a game where Ohio State is going to withhold the questionable guys and where whereas in you know, I mean against against one of the better Big Ten opponents, those guys would be playing so but that's something to keep an eye on this week, like you know, the injury reports and stuff. I don't think this is a game where you got to you got to better early because I mean, people are not going

to be running out to bet Rutgers. So I feel like there's you're gonna get a couple more points if you wait till later in the week, and that will also give you time to check on the health status of some of those different guys who have that questionable designation right now.

get that notification for the video. And if you're listening to us on a podcast while you're all set, because that feed is going to come right to you. And then don't forget about Saturday mornings right in early seven am Pacific time, ten am Eastern. He is here with Mike Farrell breaking down their favorite numbers for the Game day Slate. Thor as always an absolute pleasure. If people want to follow you on the Twitter verse, where can they find you on the bird app?