Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. With me, of course, is Matt host of the Daily Juice podcast. You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. Matt. What's up Week four?
Let's get going here. We're kind of tread and water. We're like a duck right now. We're just gonna tread and water. We've gotta get going.
And I mean, it's unfortunate that we're not able to bet on the most exciting game of the week, which is the Jets. I mean, we could.
How do feel, honest to gosh, as a Jet fan? How do you feel about your football team right now?
I think my football team is one of the biggest embarrassments in the country, which says a lot. I think that they're horrific and they have the worst coach in the league. I tell you what I really think about the season. Though. What really bugs me.
By the way, at the top of taping, you have the worst coach in the league.
That's true, although there's a report today that they weren't going to fire him. I was like, great. It doesn't really matter. He's not gonna I mean, whether he survives this season or not. I don't know. The big thing for me
is I don't Maybe you feel differently. I don't really feel like I have enough of the sense of whether I can evaluate Darnald Yet he makes some horrific throws and some terrible decisions, but he also unquirks a lot of pretty amazing things that I've seen him do, and I never I don't think he's been given a fair shake, given his coach and given the team they put around him.
So I guess out of curiosity before we get into it, how do you how do you feel about Darnald in the future, Because I could see us getting the number one pick, drafting Lawrence, getting rid of Darnald, and then him winning like six championships for the Pats or something like that. Right Like, That's how I can see it.
I mean maybe, I mean you kind of have to ask me tomorrow morning, because I bet the Jets do win today. So at naldas if he plays his butt off and he's you know, lighten up that defense for the Broncos, and I'm gonna be like, go Sam Darnold. If he loses tonight, I'm gonna say tank for Trevor.
Yeah, well, I'm sure it won't be impressive no matter what. But either way, we are, unfortunately both on the Jets side, not in our contest, and we are not advising anybody. Don't know, yell at us at the Jets lowers. It's just a game that you bet because otherwise, even as a Jets fan, there's absolutely no reason to watch. Okay, So we're gonna get into every game for this weekend, as we do every single time we record. But as always, let us recap where we are in the Draft Kings Championship.
We were five and five coming in, so just kind of treading water, and as Matt said, we're still kind of treading water. We went three and two last week, so at least a winning week. We're two hundred and fifty fifth out of six hundred and eighty nine, so not great, but not the worst in the world. We missed on the Chargers laying six and a half to the Panthers. Remind us never to back a rookie quarterback.
As you said, no good. We did hit on the Steelers laying three and a half to the Texans, the Pats laying five and a half to the Raiders, which we both loved, and the chiefs S getting three and a half from the Ravens. We really enjoyed. The last time we will see Patrick mahone getting points from anyone. And on the podcast, we had picked the Titans laying
two and a half to the Vikings. Matt messaged me on Saturday, because we talk, you know, we generally messaged Arount the week, said some sharps had really really pushed him off of that number, so we decided to move off. We didn't really have another pick that we love, so Matt allowed me to go with the Giants getting three and a half from the four Nines, which just missed. But also the other games that we were thinking about
also did not go well anyway. We were talking about maybe the Falcons or the Cowboys, so we would have lost that pick anyway. So three and two, eight and seven on the year. We need a good week, So we're gonna go back and forth a bit. Matt is going to list his top choice. I will list my top choice. I talked to my briefly before we got on. He sounds like he is not feeling all that good I have, Matt. I think I have nine games that if you came up, I don't feel great. But let
me qualify that I don't feel great. But if you came to me right now, if you list one of those games, I will probably just be like, yeah, okay, I'm okay with that. I'll go with that. Okay, So we'll talk about that again. I will remind everybody props props are not out yet. That's just the way it is with the sports books. They don't come out until
late So again I will remind you. Matt does a live stream on our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros on Sunday morning at eleven am Eastern, so that's eight am Matt's time. He goes through the entire slate for the week, if you've changed anything. He also does props. I give him a couple of props. I was six for six on my props. I only give Matt two because they were the only two I felt really good about. But I was six for six over
all my props. Again, I do fantasy projections. So hopefully things are starting to normalize a little bit, because the first couple of weeks were a little more difficult for me to get a sense of. But anyway, we will do that. As always, if we change any of the picks we discussed today, we will note them on Twitter at Tan Harris Ati at Sports Talk. Matt, let's get into it, Matt, start us off. Who is your Do you have any games that you are like excited about?
Yes?
Again, yes, go ahead.
You gonna start with the one I like the most.
You can, Matt, the world is your oyster man. Start whatever you want.
Let's start with the Let's Biggs Raiders at home catching two and a half? Oh wow, already and out of you first?
Okay, how long how long are you just going to avoid the Bills? How long are you just going to fade the Bills until they eventually win the Super Bowl? And you're gonna be like, I don't know next year though that, Josh.
So you tell me, should they have one last week? No? So we're going on a team that got a massive break. It's coming across the country to take on a team in the Raiders who are playing at home, who rested a bunch of guys, and we don't know exactly who's gonna play for the Raiders, but they're getting some guys back for this game.
We know a couple of guys who are not coming back, though we know Brian Edwards is out correct. You know, Henry Ruggs is almost definitely out correct.
So you're gonna have Josh Jacobs is playing. That's all I need to know about, all right. He's going to destroy the Bills. Gave up so many rushing yards in the second half of that game against the Rams. They can't tackle. That defense got lit up by the Dolphins and it got lit up by the Rams. The Raiders are going to run the ball and Diacops is the best back of the three teams that they got. Going Jacob's prop over everything. Josh Jacobs leads to this team
to a victory. They're gonna win this game outright at home and beat the Buffalo Bills take the two and a half.
I don't think so. I heard you talk about it with Dave Sharpan on The Daily Juice where you made your pick, and again, I don't just say it because it's part of our network of podcasts. The Daily Jews is a great podcast every morning fifteen minutes. I really enjoy it. So, Matt, you already made that pick, so I knew this was coming, that I was ready for it, and so I looked into it and I was like,
all right, is this something I feel comfortable with? First of all, you have it at three though, right.
That's it, That's what I bet it at. Yes, but I think they win the game outright, So any points in general, I like, why?
What? What is? So?
I mean, how are are bad teams? And they should have lost to the Ramska?
Okay, how are the Raiders gonna be able to stop the Bills offense?
It's gonna be a high scoring game, but yeah, I think of an enough yes that they will stop the money.
A high scoring game. How I don't understand is Josh Jacob's gonna run for four hundred yards because they're gonna probably put for Davius White on Darren Waller, and right, there are no other wide receivers out there. You're legitimately just gonna have to live, are you? Are you going to mention Za Jones or Nelson.
Looks good in a Raider uniform? Looked good. Derek Carr has been accurate and I'm telling you this. Mcdermot's not Belichick, all right, And Waller will be force fed. I thought the Raiders really were afraid to give the ball to Waller for whatever reason they I think they got out belichicked in their brain. They should have force fed Waller. I think they'll force feed him coming up and at home. I I like this team in the comfort of their home, their own home, and it's kind of in a local story.
They went cut a national but they had a really bad week. Okay, this team needs to win a football game to get everybody's What happened the the Waller fundraiser on Monday was bad, really bad. Ten players, no matter, no social distancing. It was awful. It was really awful. This team needs a victory to get everybody off of that because if they lose, the questions are going to be loud to the grood inside of well. John, you got fined one hundred k for not wearing a mask.
Ten two days later, ten of your players were sitting there at an event without wearing masks. Distraction, not focused, not taking it seriously. I expect an A plus effort out of the Raiders coming up this weekend.
How many people from either your radio show or from your podcast, get like, get on you on Twitter for how much you fade the Bills.
It's got to be like I want to say, it's ninety nine percent of Bills fans out here from that are negative and one percent say you're right. I mean literally, I've had people say you need to apologize. I've had them say you need to go on an apology tour,
that you need to bet the Bills every time. Now I want you wearing a Bill's jersey by the end of the season, all all sorts of I'm gonna maintain this and look, I talked to someone from Pro Football Focused on my show today who said that Josh Allen's numbers when he's pressured are better than Josh Allen's numbers in a clean pocket. That tells you that that's a regression coming in a big, big way. When you're more accurate,
when you're getting guys in your face, that's luck. Okay, you're getting lucky that you're completing these passes and having big numbers. A regression for the Bills offense is coming this weekend.
I have a lot of friends still in Buffalo, I have some family in Buffalo. I went to school there, So I apologize on behalf of Matt par just at him Sports Talk Matt, not me.
But did you see that stupid thing going around Twitter about like why people is an apology letter to Josh, you clowns. Just cut it out, Just get out of here. The guy can't hit a broad set of a barn still, Okay, he's an athlete, good athlete, that's what he.
Is to everyone in Buffalo. I love duff Swings, man, I would I would go get some Duffs right now. Give me some duff right over there.
Okay, which funny I have? I have a chicken wing a day, like I love buffaloings. Yes, they're my favorite food, So I should like the bills, but I just don't.
I don't. Oh my god, this is actually terrible. I have to just make sure that I'm not going to say it wrong because I think it was yeah, okay, good dust Wings. I was like, wait, there's Duffs. It's plural, right, it's not staying there. I haven't been there in like fifteen years, unfortunately, but Dusts wings. By the way, if you go there, anchor bar. I know they say they invented wings. Duff's is the best. But oh okay, I
love it. When the Jets beat writers go up there and they're all like, no, nah, we're going to DAF So I'm like, that's right, that's what you do. But we are not taking the raiders. I'm not. Look I don't, I don't. I don't see it. I don't see it with no receivers. That's my big worry I get. I do think Jacob's gonna run all over them. I think they'll go to Waller, but I think that they are gonna do. The Patriots gonna stick my best corner on Darren Waller, and I think, you know, White is good.
He's not Gilmore good, but he's really really good. And I think that he's gonna be able to kind of shum down. And I think the Patriots showed a little bit.
What you do.
You just kind of get all of car checkdown options. You're like, nah, man, we are not giving you this outlet. Feel free to go deep to Nelson Agalore, orse A Jones or something like that. But we're just blanketing your checkdown options. So for me, under a field goal can't do it because that means I have to feel like they're gonna win outright, and I just don't. So we're gonna put that one off. I'm exercising my right to put that one off as you will with multiple picks.
I'm sure. Okay, So a game I like, I'll start with this one. Saints slaying three and a half to the Lions. So there are a couple of minarrasis here. Number one, Detroit's getting healthier. Kenny Galladay played last week, The defense is getting a little healthier. Saints are dealing with a ton of injuries. Jared Cook, My guess is he's probably not gonna play. I'm a little worried about Marshawn Latimore. Apparently he's got a little bit of a hamstring.
If he doesn't play, that might change the way I feel about it, because I really do view this as Latimore is just gonna take away Galladay, just the whole game. And I think Michael Thomas is gonna play here. He's practiced the last two days. Sounds like he's trending up. They need to bounce back here. You don't go wrong really fading Matt. I feel like, and the Saints didn't look good against the Packers, but I don't think the Lions are really going to be able to run on
them with ap. I think Latimore is going to be able to take away Golladi. So you're looking at them moving the ball with Hockinson and Marvin Jones, and I'm just not that worried about it. And again, you look at this game against the Packers, where you know eventually the Saints got beat Taysom Hill doesn't fumble that ball and they can easily win that game. They're still putting up twenty nine points per game as bad as Drew Brees looks. Twenty nine points per game, they're fourth in
offensive DVOA and that's without Michael Thomas. Pretty much. There's no pass rush for the Lions. I think this is a bounce back game for the Saints. There's no fans, so I don't care really about the home build advantage. So for me, I like the Saints lank three and a half to the Lions.
See this is the week of home dogs. That really concerns me. And I'm concerned about laying points on the road. And you've been fitting the Lions. You faded my Lions pick last week, and you exit and they want and won the game outright. On the part on the Cardinals, I'm gonna say no, to this, and I don't like the Saints this year at all, and there might They were my pick preseason to win the Super Bowl Drew Brees.
Unless they're gonna come up with the package that is half Hill and half Breeze, it's really difficult to like the Saints offense. And that's with Alvin Kamara, who's just an absolute destroyer of defenses. I'm concerned about the Saints in a big way. And look, they've invested in that defense. I mean, Stafford played really well. Galladay was a beast. I get it. You take him away and then what else have you got there? But that's a scary number
for me. I really I gotta I'm very concerned about laying points on the road right now, especially for a team like the Saints. So I gotta say no to the Saints.
That's totally fine. And again, this is part of what we do. We go back and forth. Each one of us has the full power to be like, absolutely, I cannot do that, and that's totally fine for me. I think they're gonna I think they're gonna run. I think they're just gonna destroy the lines in this game. But that's that's completely fine and again, I'm not really fading the road team because of the act of home build
advantage in this point. If Thomas comes back, I feel fine, get to your next pick, then let's see if we can agree.
Okay, so my next pick that I like a lot, and this a lot of these plays are based upon numbers. Here right yep, Eagles plus seven and a half really over over a touchdown. You look at this line. This line should be three. This line shouldn't be seven and a half. This is way too many points here. The Eagles are everyone's fading them. They're O two and one. You know they're playing so poorly. There are so many injuries on the forty nine ers. We don't know who's
playing for them. And look, I know the Giants just got destroyed by them running the football. But think about this. If you're Doug Peterson, you lose this game, you're O three and one right now, you might be on the hot seat. He might be on the hot seat. Now. I don't think Carson Wentz is this bad. I think this is a team that's got Look, they're gonna lose this game, I think, but not by more than seven points. I love the seven and a half the hook here
matters to me. Taking the Eagles plus seven and a half.
Yeah, I agree that the hook. It's on my list, so I'm I'm I'm gonna put this one as probable of putting it on this I liked it as well. I'm a little nervous Carson Wentz is playing, I mean, as poorly as I can remember a quarterback playing. He's not this bad. But again, a little bit that worries me is they're really down wide receivers right now. I mean, I don't know if Deshaun Jackson's gonna play. We know Jalen Rakers out, we know Nels Goddard is out. It
makes me a little worried. But you talk about the Giants game. Man, we were texting during the first half of that game. Daniel Jones doesn't turn the ball over like right by the half. That's not It wasn't like they blew them out of the water right out of the gate like the forty nine ers right now are not that good. Garoppolo is not going to play Kittle, I guess is gonna play. It sounds like that, which
does make me a little worried. And I think it sounds like McKinnon is also healthy, so the at least have the two backs. Most of it's not gonna play. But I agree with you here. I mean, they're just given all the injuries on defense, given everything that's starting, the desperation that's going to set in for the Eagles, which you wouldn't know necessarily because of the fact that they play for the tie against Cincinnati, which was just absolutely ludicrous. I'm okay with it. So let's put that
one in a pencil. But I think that's one that we're gonna go with and shocked, shocked that that's what you went with. Okay, how about and this one again? This is sort of I guess similar to the Saints. But what do you think about the Cardinals laying three and a half at the Panthers. To me, I think this last game was a bit of a wake up
call for the Cardinals. You've heard Larry Fitzgerald talk about it was like, what you know, You've got sort of these suddenly Super Bowl aspirations and then this game comes along and just knocks you on your butt. The caveat is for me. DeAndre Hopkins has missed the last two days of practice with an ankle injury. It may be nothing. It may just be routine maintenance. If he's out, forget it. I don't want anything about this, but they should be
able to run all day. I think there's a big Kenyon Drake game for them and Kyler Murray running the ball. I don't love the Panthers. They're coming off that win, like good for them, but I think it's a letdown spot for them. I think the Cardinals are angry. I think they're way better than we saw against the Lions. So well, now this kind of goes with the Saints laying three and a half on the road, but Cardinals at the Panthers three and a half?
What do you think put it in pen Ooh.
All right, okay Cardinals.
Look here's the thing with the Panthers and I got into a little bit of an argument. I mentioned I
was talking to someone from Pro Football Focus. They were trying to make the case that the Panthers are a better offense without McCaffrey, and I just was like, what do you mean in The person was like it was Eric Eager, and he was like, look, he's like, you can make a case for this offense being more prolific because they share the football when they don't have McCaffrey on the field, and so they go to the wide receivers,
they'll go to different running backs. It's not just all McCaffrey. McCaffrey. I think that that's kind of nuts personally. I think he's one of the top five best players in the game, and you feed that guy as much as possible because him versus a linebacker, and he's like, well, they throw the ball over ten yards when they've got McCaffrey on the sidelines with him, he starts five yards behind the line of scrimmage, which I guess in theory makes sense.
But it's still Christian McCaffrey. So this Panthers team, I know, I got called, but I think we had the charges last week, right, we did. Yes, I had it.
I didn't love it. I didn't love it. That was the one that we we sort of let and you felt pretty good about.
Yeah, And I had it on both I had it on the DraftKings in, I had it on on the Circle Million Picks. So I got I went oh and two on that. I'm gonna I'm okay going back and fading the Panthers again. I don't I think they're garbage. And I think there was just some points left on the field there by a rookie. I think there were some mistakes there that shouldn't have happened. I mean, the defense basically bent and didn't break. They stopped him inside the red zone a bunch of times held in the
field goals. So maybe it was a little bit of a better performance than I thought offensively. But the Cardinals, I'm with you, coming off of a loss. It's only three and a half. And Hopkins, I think he's gonna play. I mean, he's a guy who's notorious for, you know, not practicing during the.
Ab doesn't play, I will revisit it and we you know again, I always said on Saturday night, I always tweeted out what our final picks are because that's when I put them in. I don't put them in. We can put them in on Sunday morning. I put them in on Saturday night. So follow us on Twitter, Dan Harris at Sports Talk mat just in case we change it. But assuming he plays, which right now I'm assuming he does, I'm totally on board with it. So this is good.
It's an in penn subject to Hopkins, go to your next one.
Good second one. Why are the Cowboys favored by four and a half points? Mmm?
This is a good question.
This is kind of nuts to me. I mean, the Cowboys are not good right now. They've got big problems. They have internal issues with whether or not the owner is saying things about Dak Prescott publicly saying he's not Patrick Mahomes, and well who is? But so so Jerry Jones's comments were interesting. I think there's big issues, and I think the Browns are coming along here and they're starting to grow on me. And I think Stefanski's offense
is starting to take hold a little bit. That defense playing a little bit better than maybe we thought they were going to be. And it's four and a half, so again, this is the numbers play for me. But I think the Cowboys win the game, but they might win. I think they went by a field goal. I'll take the four and a half points here with the Browns.
So I'm with you. I want to know though, whether or not if Kareem Hunt misses this game because he's mispracticed several days in a row now with a groin injury, and today Odell Beckham Junior popped up on the injury report with a back injury that he's apparently playing through. I don't know about that, because this is a big game for Beckham coming. I think he's fully healthy, right, I mean, the corners can't stop him. I I I it was on my list, So I'm good with it
right now. That that does make me a little worried about it. I'm not sure, you know, I don't think Den's Award is going to come back and play yet, which I don't really think matters. I think it's gonna be shooting. But I what I really get at is after that first game against the Ravens, we were like, oh, no, same old Browns. But they I mean, yes, they let Cincinnati backdoor cover, but they they completely dominated that game, yep, and against the Washington football team, so they're they're a
better team than they're being given credit for. And if you're if you're saying, why don't we fade the Cowboys, I'm totally about that. Like every single week, I'm fining to do that because I was. I've been about them and I've been like, oh, I think they're gonna do it, but no, Yeah, I'm good with that. Let's put that one in in like a raceable pay and just in case we've got something there. But I'm pretty good with that.
I'm pretty good with that. I have a couple of other games and I like, let me go, and I have a feeling you're not gonna like this one, although you probably just hate both these teams. You're like, this is just to stay away to me. But there's another road favorite, so I know you're not loving it. The Colts laying two and a half to Chicago. The Bears are the most fraudulent three to zero team in like the history of the National Football League. They've barely squeaked
by the Lions, the Giants, and the Falcons. I think the Colts defense is legitimate. I mean, forget about what they did to the Jets. You and I could do that to the Jets. They destroyed Minnesota, which I think you know you saw last week Minnesota against Tennessee. They can score, they can put up points. I think what they did there is a lot on their defense as opposed to you know, the Vikings offense. They didn't play well against Jacksonville. They let them get back into the game.
It's fine, you can do that. They've got a lot of injuries on offense. They're without Paris Campbell, they're without Michael Pittman Jr. But the offensive line is elite. I think they've kind of got this figured out right now where they're going to go to a lot of two tight ends scents so they can get in Moley Cox and Jack Doyle. And I think they've got enough on offense if you're laying less than the field. Though, Like,
I think the Colts are gonna win this game. I think Chicago stinks for I mean that that's oversetting it. So for me, I like the Colts even in Chicago laying two and a half.
Are you afraid about teams preparing for for Foals and the and the You know the reason why that fellow that thing fell apart is because they prepped for Trubetsky.
Sorry, we're talking about Atlanta blowing a massive fourth quarter league.
Right, Yeah? I know, But I just wonder. I mean, because I thought about this game. I mean I looked at it and I went, Okay, what do I think is the most likely thing to happen? Yeah, the Colts probably winning, and if they win, they probably win by and cover this. But man, I'm concerned about.
But the thing is, it's not like the prepared. They're not preparing. They haven't been preparing for this game for weeks. This is in the first game of the season where they've been like, oh, we're getting ready for Drubisky. They've been preparing for it. They've known Foles was gonna be the quarterback.
Now.
I do not like betting against Nick Foles. I really don't, because he is able to do that. He didn't really play all that well against the Falcons. He really didn't. He made a lot of, you know, questionable throws. Both the guys in our Fantasy Football podcast, Mike tag Leaire and Kylli Yeates are Bears fans. Like they were lamenting the fact almost that they won, and everybody was lauding Nick Foles because as much as he brought them back, he did even play well. But I'm okay, we've got
question marks about that one. You don't feel that good about it, That's okay.
I just don't know who the Colts are yet. That's my thing. Like what Jonathan Taylor should have had a monster game last weekend.
I'm telling you. Tag said the exact same thing on the Fantasy podcast. They had that game one from a minute in and they knew it. They didn't need to do anything. So Johnathan Taylor, I know we're all disappointed at his production, even though he found the end zone. Tags mentioned it on our Fansy Pros Football podcast that he was like, he didn't just I don't know. He didn't look like he had good vision. He wasn't making anyone.
He was running into the line into lineman. Yes, he was running street in the he was. He wasn't bouncing. He was like, the hole wasn't there, and he's like, I don't care, I'm going through the eight.
That's right.
It was it.
Was disinterest, that's what it was. It was this game is over. Let's just run the clock out. It doesn't really matter. That's what I think about it. Anyway. I'm not I'm not willing to be worried whatsoever about Taylor because a lot of people were asking about that from a fantasy perspective. I'm not worried about it all now. I just think it was give me whatever, this game's over.
So this is interesting, But that's fine. It's okay because we do have three games already that we are both willing to go with So you have questions about that, that's fine. Do you have another one? Then, who's your next one?
Well? I only have one left because we agree on the we agree on the Browns, and we agree on the Cardinals. Correct, I only have one left. And you might, you might actually kind of go, what the at this? Pick a ready Houston Texans at home lay in three and a half.
Okay, it's all right, So it's not on my list, but talk me through it. It's not it's not on the it's not on the other side, So talk me through it.
Okay. So the Vikings I think are not a good football team right now. And I think when you have an zero to three football team who have played the I mean, arguably the hardest beginning of any season that I can remember. I'm forty three. I can't remember a harder start to a year than to go up against the Ravens Chiefs and on the road at Pittsburgh. Yeah. That that is just absolutely ridiculous. So I think Watson and company have a big day. I think this defensive
secondary for the Vikings is young, inexperience and clueless. There's going to be about thirteen thousand fans in the building, so it's going to have a little bit of a home field advantage. I think their back to are against the wall, and they know that you're paying Watson all this money you gave up on Hopkins, you traded him away. There's a lot of pressure on O'Brien in company to deliver here and turn the ship around. I think it starts here with this Vikings team that's really bad and
I think they've got their COVID questions going around. They missed practice, miss two days of practice in preparation for Watson. I think this is where the finally a win for the Texans by seven.
I don't hate it. I don't hate it. I lean towards the Texans so we can put it in pencil. I'm a little worried about a few things. Number One, there are a lot of injuries popping up on the practice board this week. Will Fuller, who is always actually injured on the on the injury board, I think with a hamstring, so we'll have to monitor a status because
he does really change that oftense a bit. Number Two, I'm a little worried that the Vikings found something here with Justin Jefferson and realizing what they needed to do to score points offensively, so I'm a little worried that they might be able to keep it close. They're also desperate, I mean, you know, in a different way, but they are desperate. So I'll put that one in pencil, and I want to talk about a couple other games here that we can think about. So we've got these, We've
got these these too. I'm going to put the Colts on on. It wasn't an outright absolutely not. We're not going to do it right. Neither are the Texans. So we've got the Saints definitely not, and the Raiders definitely not. Let's go let me ask you this because I know that the number here annoys you. Where it is on DraftKings, I don't remember if it's dipping on circuits on circa. But what about the Pats. They're getting six and a half in casey, what are they in the circa for the same Okay.
Okay, So here's the thing on this game. I'm gonna bet this game, all right. I'm also gonna tease this game, taking the Patriots at eight when it gets there. Now, it's gonna get there. It's not there yet, but the Patriots plus eight because I think the books are gonna go there for teasers, they're gonna go to eight. So I think we're gonna get eight at some point in the next twenty four to forty eight hours.
Yeah, I heard you talking about that too.
I'll I'll take the Pats at eight and I am going to at seven. In a contest, I would take the Patriots at six and a half. I would take the Chiefs.
That's fair. That's fair. And the consensus line right now again, I'm on betting pros. I coming to get consensus lines. I'll give you a couple of the breakdowns by the way of how the consensus experts are doing the picks. Fifty five percent still on the Pats even at six and a half. If I have to choose one, I'll still go to the Pats. I think this sets up really well for them that the you know, brilliant game by everybody on the Chiefs, they don't stop the run
as well. I think you're gonna get a lot in Newton as they try to control the clock. They do what the Ravens basically look like they were going to try to do from the get go, and then they just turned into a passing machine, which when they fell behind.
You can't go down. I mean, the Pats and the Ravens are gonna run the same offense, and if they go down by fourteen, it's all she wrote, it's game over.
Yeah. I think that's fair. So I do lean that way at six and a half. But it is something where you know, I know that the hook really is what it is, and I think if you're getting there and you can get that in Vegas, well you should. I'm go ahead.
I mean I'm mad. I mean, I'm about this line. I think this is a mistake by both contests.
And I understand six and a half by the way you said, yeah, it's.
In both its six and a half, and I think it's wrong because this number is going to be off by a point and a half. Yeah, And so that ticks me off because normally they predict where the number is gonna go. You're telling me that people are going
to the window to bet the Patriots. Yeah, I mean, come on, after what they just did in primetime on Monday night football, that's not I mean, normally the Patriots Chiefs game would be on you know, prime time, blow it up, Mark Key game, Brady versus you know, versus the young stud and Patrick Mahomes defending champs against the team that they beat against. You know, I believe Mahomes's own three still against the Patriots or one and four against Brady, so you would have had that whole storyline
going on, it's can Mahomes finally beat Brady? Well, that was last week for them against the Ravens, so a letdown game for the Patriots fits in perfectly for Belichick. So I still think I think very much like the Chargers game where the Church got out to a really good start, I don't hate a bet on Patriots in the first half here to have a lead at the half, and then the second half the Chiefs get to life and then they win the game, but maybe not covering
that six and a half point line. So like, I don't hate a playing the Patriots, but from from a betting perspective, I think you have to you have to get seven or higher to bet it for the Patriots.
And it is seven out there. Again I mentioned it on Betting Bros. We have the consensus lines from the various sports books. We do have two seven's showing right now, one at bet MGM and one at Fandle they're both at plus seven, so that's a different But everybody else that I can see is at six and a half. So yeah, it's a tough one under a touchdown. It's a li little bit tough for me to do. Let me go down. By the way, a couple of just the how the you know on betting bros dot com,
we have a bunch of experts. Matt and I make our picks as well making picks, you get this consensus of where people are with the lines. Now Philadelphia at San Francisco it's minus seven in the consensus line, so we're actually getting the better of the line, and still sixty six percent of experts are going with Philly in that sense. Yeah, I will say that even at Buffalo laying three and a half to Las Vegas, seventy seven percent of people are on Buffalo. So I just want
to put that out there for you. Uh, Indianapolis laying two and a half to Chicago, which is the consensus line, just like ours, that is, sixty percent of experts are going with Indianapolis.
By the way, did you guys ever run the number based upon what the what our experts go? Yes, totality because I does it matter ifcause on a public side of things, if seventy five percent are on one side, I like being in the twenty five percent, right, So like, so I'm curious about, like, well, how are our experts doing if the seventy five percent matter? Like, does it matter they run seventy five percent on one?
No? No, it's a good point. It's a good point what I can also do and what I should I'll do next time because I don't want to. I don't want to lay ust too much as I have all the moving parts. But you can look at the people who are the most accurate, who are doing better in units, and you can see just how they are picking any.
Snow, that's yeah, let's talk about those guys.
We're going to do those guys next week. Don't worry about hopefully it will be me, me and you.
No. No, okay, I play straight because I'm doing strategy in that. So I'm doing the like I never played three unit games, but I'll do three unit games on that.
Fair, No, I do. I do much more of my level of confidence that I definitely do change it and I go higher on that. Okay, So just a couple other ones because I want to just for the games that we're going, Uh, the vikings at Houston, Houston lane three and a half, sixty five percent with Houston, so that that's something good. New Orleans giving four. We are at three and a half, giving four to Detroit sixty eight percent on New Orleans, Dallas sixty six percent laying
four and a half. That's not going to be me and you though, seeat We'll get to that game in a minute. Hold on, I want to talk about that one. Are on Arizona?
Oh good, are on Arizona?
So that sense and we've got that, and just so you know, fifty seven percent around the Jets, so we'll hope that goes well. But anyway, let's move on here then, and fifty five percent around New England. I may mention that at six and a half, talk to me about Seattle lank six and a half to Miami. Okay, it's not a game.
I really want a hard game because it is right.
The sharp side. Do you agree that the sharp side for me like the side that makes the most sense, putting aside the Oh my god, it's Russell Wilson and why are you ever going to bet against Russell Wilson. To me, is Miami at home getting six and a half, that that's the better side.
Well, like I said, this is the week of home dogs, and historically speaking, in the NFL, home team's catching points, you want to be on that side, in particular over a field goal. Teams at home getting more than a field goal, you want to be on that side. So, I mean, granted, it's gonna be greasy and grimey in a back door might be needed to cut it, but yeah, I mean I think this is either a dog or a no play for me because you can easily see a letdown after the Cowboys and all this praise, all
this love. They're going literally to the too farthest. Seattle to Miami is the farthest distance between cities you can play in the NFL, so it's a huge road trip. You're going into the heart of COVID nineteen country in Miami and Miami Dade County. So you got that whole concern going off for Seattle. I mean, yeah, I mean, if I don't like this, but if I was gonna take it, if I had to, I would take the Dolphins.
Yes, if you if you came in on this. You were like, Dan, you know what I like? I like them. Oh my god, I would take it. I know it's gross, it's too big of a risk. I don't want to be there on Sunday going against Russels.
I choose not right now that noneuthless DK Metco gets hurt, right If DK Metco gets hurt, then it changes everything. But he is a matchup nightmare for every defense. And Wilson's got this crazy ability of throwing the football up and it stays up there for like an eternity, and Metcalf just runs underneath it and he plays basketball. He boxes out the DBS. Awesome, it's incredible.
I mean it's just as long as he can hold onto the ball before he crosses the goal line, that's he's unstoppable.
And he's unguardable. Even with double teams, he's unguardable. So it's so difficult to look at Seattle and like their defense gets to play better because they're always playing with the lead, so they get in their ears back and just go after the quarterback. And like, I mean, they're beatable. But right now, I mean this whole like charge to get Wilson MVP. I think the team really wants to
do it. I think this is like the calling card of twenty twenty for the for the Seattle Seahawks is to get Russell Wilson the MVP because he's not.
Like he's playing out of control, and he does the thing where he drops it in the bucket better than anyone I can remember ever doing. Where he's able to throw that ball. It's really amazing and it's great. It's good to and again you talk about what they're going to do in this game, they really have no running game. Maybe Chris Carson plays, I doubt it. Even Carlos Hyde is on the injury reports really going to be throwing. So yeah, I think Miami is the right side. I
will probably have it, for example on our site. That's the side that I would go with. But yeah, it makes me a little worried about it getting into the contest. So again, we may have our five and the three we kind of like and we don't absolutely hate. But let's go through a couple more here. I know this goes against the paralism, so it's off the table. But if you came in and you wanted hold on second, sorry, this is just where my garage door opens.
I was like, that's what sounds like.
Can you hear it?
Oh?
Yeah? Clinton sometimes leaves us in the video. If you're watching us on Bettingpros dot com Sash YouTube, Hello, my office is on top of my garage and my wife, without a doubt, and I do seven podcasts a week no matter what time it is. She I guarantee you she is leaving to come in and out of this garage and you can feel free to here.
So you probably you'll hear my kid running around right by me.
That's all right, that's all right. My kids are usually best saying okay. So if you came and you said, Dan, I just got this feeling. Man. I think they're going to be so mad at what happened on Monday, and I want to take the Ravens laying twelve and a half to Washington. I would do it. I think they are going to be so angry right now, Dwayne.
Had I mean, this is a back door waiting to happen.
Of course it is, of course, which is why you know, you know what it really probably is. It's a Dwayne Haskins gets benched or you know, hurt, God forbid or anything like that, and Kyle Allen comes in and scores like two meaningless touchdowns for them to lose by ten or something like that. So I get it. I assume it. I assumed it was off the table, which is why it was way.
Best to many. I mean, it's a prime teaser game.
I mean, yeah, go after's true.
Go after the teaser here and tease this thing down, and I I think that's the way you'll be. But twelve and a half is just get it below a touchdown, and I agree, But you gotta protect against the back door, and that back door is going to be open.
I think, well, in the consensus lines, it is now up to thirteen and a half or fourteen at certain places, and everybody's coming in, well.
You get me fourteen and a half. I think you bet. You may wind up betting.
It's like last year, right with the Patriots, when you were doing that at the beginning of the season, where we were like, oh, the Lion's just seventeen and I don't even hate it. So that's where it is. Okay, But that's fine. We can say all that one. And I mean, unless you like the underdog, which I assume you don't given how much you hate the Giants. The Giants getting twelve and a half from.
The Rams, Oh my gosh, no, I mean.
I don't want that game at all.
But here's here's the thing, though, Should the Rams be favored that much? But against anybody like the like I don't like the number, but that again is a dog or no play because yeah, I mean, I don't know the Rams are good, but I mean I guess because they're at home. It's it's you know, after the two back to back trips of the East Coast, now they're at home taking on a horrible team that they have chance to put some numbers up on the board. But I don't know. That's that's a lot of.
Points the who's the worst team? Giants or Jets? By the way, because I've been getting this question one yeah by far right, thank you, So all my friends who are listening, you have it now from a and.
Yeah, I'm biased. There's not even a debate in my mind.
And that's what Oh exactly, that's what I'm saying. I'm like, I don't I don't understand why there's a discussion, like the Jets are on their own tier of terribleness, but yeah, I look for me the Rams. Yeah, I get that it seems crazy that it's that big a favorite, but it's a game I don't want to touch. I mean, it's just not something.
You can't lay in these contests. You can't lay double digits.
It's just even even out of the contest, though, I don't want to touch it at all. Like, I get that the spread sort of is like, wow, that's crazy. I do think that the Rams offense, you saw what they could do very easily. I mean, I know you hate Buffalo's defense, but they can put up points in an instant and especially if you've got something at home or now on the road without noise for McVeigh to
be in golfzy or as you talk about all the time. Yep, let's go to and by the way, sixty three percent of experts at twelve and a half are leaning towards the Rams. Let's go how about the Jaguars getting three and a half from the Bengals. Do you have any lean on that.
These are games I wouldn't bet with your money. Yeah, I mean you can, because here's the thing with the Jags. Okay, they're gonna be They're so tough to predict like I thought against Miami, I was. I was on the Jags. Yeah, they have talent. I mean they're not horrible, they're not great, but they have talent. And so I look at I don't know yet about Joe Burrow. I'm coming around. I'm
talking about betting on him. I'm coming around on the idea that Burrow might be a guy that the books are undervaluing his ability, his moxy, his toughness, his ability to back door cover, which is you know, Joey backdoor may be a nickname that we're given it because of we're laughing about it, but that might stick. He might be a dude that just even when they're losing, he could come out. And then the tie last week against the Eagles, I think that benefited the Bengals. It gives
them some confidence going into this game. So I don't like it. But if I had to pick a side to be on the Bengals.
Yeah, I think with the hook I'd go Jaguars. I think that the I'm assuming Djhark plays because I really think that the loss of DJ Tark last week was completely messing them up. Chris Conley dropped to ball. I just you know, it was. That doesn't explain why Ryan Fitzpatrick almost set a record for you know, completions in a row. But I think i'd probably lean at three and a half towards the Jaguars. But again, it's a complete stay away game. I think there's only two that
we haven't touched on. One of them is the Chargers getting seven and a half from the Bucks.
See, let me throw it back at you for a second. Yes, how good is this Bucks offense? When healthy? Uh?
When healthy? I think they're pretty good there. I don't think they're an elite offense at this point because I think that Brady has really taken a step back and I think he's feeling.
The because it's strength on strength here. Okay, this is defense for the Chargers offense for the pet for the Bucks, I think they I think the Chargers keep this game within a touchdown. I think the Bucks win. But if I had to pick a side, I don't like it, but I think the number matters to hear, I would take the Chargers.
The consensus has gone down to seven for what it's worth, so you're getting the hook. In the context. I think there are a couple of things. I think Chris Godwin's out right. I think that really hurts because I think Godwin's huge. I think Scotty Miller maybe out. He's struggling right now. I think with a Coroin injury which I didn't even realize necessarily so, and I think Leonard Fournette is going to be out. They're really hurting on offense.
But as you aptly predicted before we got into the season, the Chargers are completely decimated with injuries. They just put Chris Harris Junior on ir They lost Melvin Ingram, we know they lost Irwin James, and I don't want to bet on a rookie QB and this I just I don't love him. I'd rather if you were willing, if you felt the same way about it, and we had to pick one, I would certainly go with the Colts getting given the two and a half to the Bears.
There's one other game I think that we haven't tached on. That's Monday Night, which is the Falcons getting seven and a half from the Packers.
Tease it, tease it, tease it. This is my week, this is my teaser. I'm teasing Green Bay down to one. Okay, but I don't like this game, but I think I think Green Bay wins, but I don't. I don't know.
Alans are also is almost certainly. I think Fanta Adams is coming back.
But yeah, I think Adams back is a bit is a bit it makes it.
Yeah, yeah, of course it's a huge deal.
But I think they win. I think Green Bay wins, but I don't like that number. I think that that's heavy here, and because I think the Falcons, I mean again, this is another team playing for their lives, and the hook matters seven and a half. That hook matters to me.
Yeah, yeah, I uh, I don't like it either way. I just don't want to go near it. I don't know what the Packers are. The Packers is good, I can't I can't really tell. I mean, Rodgers is playing at old Rogers level, but I'm still not convinced one hundred.
Well, it kind of throws it back in the face of a lot of us who expected the regression because of the one the one score wins last year. Yeah, and everyone said, oh, that team that went to the NFC Championship game, they're not really that good because look how many games they won by one score. And in a way, it kind of showed us the other way of like, well, they were good enough to win and be on the right side of all those one scores. So, I mean, I think this Falcons team is really bad.
And Laculio might come back. If he does, I think it's significance. But if he doesn't, you know, that's a that's a pretty big loss as well. And this Falcons team just keeps on finding new and impressive ways to blow games. So it's bad.
It's really bad. Fifty nine Yeah, in primetime, fifty nine percent in Lambeau, fifty nine percent of people are of experts are on Green Bay at minus seven right here, Okay, So here's what I've got, man, and you tell me if I'm wrong. The Eagles are getting seven and a half from the four nine ers. We like that one.
Yep.
The Cardinals are laying three and a half to the Panthers, we like that one.
Yep.
The Browns are getting four and a half from the Cowboys. We like that one.
Yep.
The Texans are laying three and a half to the Vikings. You like that one. I'm okay with it and it's passable for me, okay. And the Colts are laying two and a half to the Bears. You don't like it, but you you don't hate it as much as you hate every other game.
No, I don't. I don't. Again, I don't hate it. I mean I need rivers to not throw receptions and I need rivers to get rid of the football and nugets sacked and have pick sixes and whatnot.
But as long as I can't guarantee any of that, yes, as long.
As it doesn't happen, well, I think the Colts win.
Okay, all right, I think I think, Look, I will. I am a little worried about. I would feel better about it with Trubisky for sure.
Yes, I'm I have a master's degree in favor lady fitting that guy. I love fitting that dude. Nick Fole scares me, just because I wonder if they're I mean again, you're playing with a new quarterback, new options, and I think, I mean it's funny Nick Knick's comments after the game of like I feel for Mitch and I was there, I've been there for Mitch. It's like, yeah, Bud, you don't care you're starting. Man, You've got a job again, and you know it's your job because Matt that Nanny
was waiting. He was waiting to make that change. He wanted to do that when they signed him, but he couldn't do it until. I mean, he in a game in which Trebitsky didn't play that badly. He threw one pick, and the second time as soon as you threw a pick, he was benched. Boomly.
I think what it was is they clearly wanted Foles to be the starter, but you couldn't go to Foles and ever go back to Mitch. It was it was done, so you had to start Mitch see what you had. And then he played terribly in that first game, and then miraculously had this awesome fourth quarter and they won the game, and you're like, all right, well now we kind of here. Which once he went to Foles, I
was talking with the guys too. They were like, I don't know, maybe they go back to my No, no, this is done, and then started, okay, so those are our five picks unless we change. If you talk to you know you get some good inside information like you often do, let me know and we can change it and we will tweet it out again. Tune into Matt's livestream eleven am eastern eight a m. Pacific on Sunday mornings. He's going to go through the whole Sley. I'll let
you know if we change. I'll have some props for you. As I did last week. I will send him a couple of props on Saturday night that he can relate to you guys. And that is it. Follow us along again on Twitter at Dan Harris ad and that Sports Talk Matt. Matt will talk to you in the Morning podcast. I will talk to you next week or on the Fantasy Bros. Football Podcast. See them