Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. It is NFL Week four and we are getting ready for the weekends late, which means it is time for us to break down some of our favorite games. Joining me to do just that as always none other than Matt f the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and today are very special guest, Colin Davey of bet Scope is going to be walking us through some fantastic tools that can help you guys when it comes to making your picks. Colin,
thank you so much for joining us today. How are you doing?
I feel like I got to give a pre apology because the last time Freeman and I were on a mic together, we're doing golf stuff. So just on a sheer habit, I may be getting giving my opinions on Headecki Maasa Yama, but that is from a distant life to say.
Yeah, that's that's a long time ago. What was what was the metric? It was adjusted?
What's the metrics? Something like adjusted strokes?
Yeah, justice strokes gained.
It was not strokes games. Remember I didn't like strokes game back.
Right, But it was adjusted. It was adjusted strokes something. But maybe it's a Justice Strow anyway. Yeah, the fut right, yes, yeah, the Fantasy Labs days, those were those were good days. And uh yeah, I mean you were a monster with the projections and so Tom, I don't know if you know this about Colin and calling correct me where I'm wrong.
Uh.
He twice won the Sloan mi I t hackethon and he won on Jeopardy.
Wow. I did know that about Jeopardy as a matter of fact.
Yeah, but the Sloan Hackathon thing, and you were the original winner of the hackathon right.
It was the first two years that they did the competition. I won both of them. Decided I have nothing left to prove, hung my hat up. Call me when they do the Tournament of Champions. I am out of the hackathon game for the time being.
Yeah, that is it's a real like dunk on everyone to win the second year and then just be like, you know what, I gotta retire. It's not fair to all of the other merror mortals out there for me to do this three times in a row.
Hey, your words, not mine.
Yeah, I can very much relate to this. With the town third grade spelling be back in my hometown, I know exactly where you're coming from here.
All right, guys, we have a lot.
To get to today, but before we do that real quick, I just want to announce the winner of the autograph Joe Mixon jersey that we have for you courtesy of Pristineauction dot Com is none other than Matthew Dikett. Please get in touch with our customer support agents at info at Bettingpros dot com with your mailing address and proof of your subscription to the Betting Pros YouTube channel, and we will get that jersey shipped out to you post taste.
Maybe not for this weekend, but hey, if you're quick enough, maybe you have it for well next week because the Dolphins and the Bengals play each other well before this podcast is actually going new air. But again, the winner is Matthew Dikett. Congrats, and now guys, let's get into it focusing on some of these weekend games.
Matt, We're going to start off basically here.
The plan is we're going to talk about your lines, and then Colin is gonna come through and completely berate you using his tools to find a better bet. That sound like a plan to.
You, Colin, That sounds like a plan to me. Well, the first.
Game that you got up. Okay, Matt, you want a word.
In edgewise now, no, just it's already like old times.
Yeah, a lot of blasts from the past for you on the last couple episodes here, But your line in this game, we're going Bears at Giants. You've got three and a half here, and it looks like that is still indeed pretty much the number. The Bears have moved to three and even two and a half in some spots. Do you still like them without the hook?
Yeah? So when I wrote this up, it was three and a half consensus. Now I'm looking at the betting pros odds page, seems to be around three. I have this projected out at one and a half, So I still think that there's value landing on three. Obviously would have liked to have been able to get it closer to kickoff at three and a half. But I still have value on this. And you know, some of it is that I don't think the Bears are quite as bad as they've looked, and I do think the Giants
are worse than they've looked. Specifically, like you look at some of the trends. I mean, Daniel Jones one and four against the spread as a home favorite, Like, he's just that is not the spot in which you want to bet on him as a road dog. Love Daniel Jones as a home favorite. He's absolutely horrible. And I think a lot of this game for me comes down to the Bears rush offense against the Giants rush defense. So David Montgomery number one running back for the Bears,
I honestly don't even care if he plays. There's a chance that he plays, but probably won't even so it doesn't matter because his backup Khalil Herbert has been fantastic playing and places in Montgomery. You know, had twenty carries, one hundred and fifty seven yards, two touchdowns last week. Last year in four games as to fill in, he had three hundred and forty four yards rushing in a
touchdown on seventy eight carries. And then quarterback Justin Fields is always a rushing threat, has twenty seven carries this year. The Bears are top twelve and like all the different key rushing efficiency metrics that you might look at, you know, epa success rate, and then the Giants defense is outside the top twenty in those metrics, and there's a pretty good chance they're going to be without defensive lineman Leonard
Williams and also edge jahad Ward. And so I think the Bears control the game for a chunk of it with their running attack, and I think that keeps this close.
I want to know the total, not on the score, which frankly you could set it too, and I might take the under in this game, But total on pass is thrown here because on the one hand, you have Justin Fields, who's thrown the ball forty five times through three games this season. Joe Flackel, I'm pretty sure is averaging more throws than he than he has all year. But then on the other side, with the Giant, all of your receivers are either injured or Kenny Galladay, and
that might even be worse. It's a battle of two completely stoppable run defenses. You talked about the Giants there twenty eighth and Dboa the Bears are twenty second. But Colin, what are you thinking here? Let's bring up bet scope and talk about what you're seeing in this game.
Absolutely so to give a little bit of context of what we're looking here at here. Bet Scope is basically a series of betting tools designed to help you match your beliefs and what you think will happen with the game with the most appropriate market that you should be getting your money down. So over here we have a combination on screen where this is basically of all a
different markets currently available. As we get closer to game time, we expect more props to be available around things like bears and giants, running backs, giants wide receivers as they come in. But we can kind of take a look at all the different price is at all the different markets that we're looking at with a kind of.
Easy click of the button.
Now, one of the other things that we can do with this is basically try to discover all of the markets that match your betting thesis. And so, Freedman, what I'd like to go back to you is like, let's explore your I guess quote unquote investment thesis for lack of a better term, and all the things.
You just described.
I heard a lot of potentially legitimate reasons, like why you might like the bears here and bears plus two plus two and a half depending on you know where we're getting the they're even still at plus three at some places is a perfectly great way to get your money down. But everything you describe is and I'll ask you a little bit of a devil's advocate question, Why did you not settle on Daniel Jones under on the pass props. Why did you not settle on Justin Fields
over on his rushing yards? Why are you not necessarily looking at the alternate spread markets to see if there's a slightly better price that captures the same general direction of where you think the game is going to go. So how did you settle on just your stock bears plus three or plus two and a half?
Yes, this is a very loaded question, as you might gather.
Yeah, so it is a good question, I would say. Closer to kickoff, I think it makes sense to expound on your thesis, your investment thesis, and look to get action in the alternative markets earlier in the week, which is when I tend to do a lot of my research and establish some of my positions. Really, the best way to do that, or sometimes the only way to do that, is by attacking the spread market before those
lines kind of get bet into place. And so that is the reason why I would go with the traditional spread. But obviously, as props come out as more alternative lines are released, it creates more opportunities in the market, and it would make sense to try to exploit those.
It absolutely does, and I think we're all in a consensus that this is the way that lines get hammered into shape. You start with the first available spreads and totals if you feel like your edge is bigger there. It is basically the only market that you can get down in. As you get closer to kickoff and these new markets spring up, it absolutely behooves you to go through every single one, examine all the prices, and figure out which of the markets most closely match your investment thesis.
As we all know, it is incredibly cumbersome to go through potentially eighty different markets at seven different sports books. The permutations can get pretty overwhelming, and for most of us it's just not feasible to go an odds shop
and every single one of those. Combine it with the fact that some of these favorable prices are only available during short windows, and you have to be able to capitalize on a very short timeframe window, and so what we've developed a BET scope, is a way to basically scan the entire market and surface those most favorable bets at a click of a button and all we need for that. But process is a single belief. So let's go back to your original thesis. You basically have this
projected at fair price. Is Giants minus one and a half is the fair line in your view?
Correct?
So what we can do is we can go over to the spread box here and instead of you know, the consensus is around something, just over you know, minus two. As a side note, the spread consensus is slightly different than an average scoring differential. There's a lot of complicated distribution math that is an explainer for why you might see a slightly different number in the average spread your scoring differential versus the spread numbers that are up there.
But that is a subject for another day. But let's approximate it to say, on.
Average, you think the Giants are going to win by one and a half instead of the you know two two and a half they're projected.
What we can do is we can.
Update that spread number and run it through our correlations engine and bet calculator. And what that will do is say, in a world in which you're correct and that is the true line, there are a lot of other bets that also need to be adjusted, because in a world where that is true, we will need to adjust all of other numbers accordingly. So I look here, and there don't seem to be any particularly special markets that show any kind of huge price discrepancies.
I think there's all.
If we don't see any particular juicy opportunities, we can kind of stick to our standard stock, you know, bears plus two plus two and a half plus three. But normally the way that we want to get down on this is identifying markets with significant enough price discrepancies that are correlated to the markets that were their original kind of investment thesis. As of game time or as of
you know, Thursday. Right now, I don't see any particular markets that are worth like especially worth attacking beyond I'm sure to check, you know, closer to kickoff, as these markets have a little bit more fluctuations. So I like, as of now, I like your original bet.
Yeah.
I would say. One thing to keep in mind is that because of the running back uncertainty with Montgomery, we don't have a prop for him or Khalil Herbert in the market yet, and I think the running backs would probably be the likeliest the likeliest exploitable opportunities given the thesis, because you know, like Justin Fields, he already has a
really low passing prop. The same with Daniel Jones. So you know, moving from two point one as the general consensus line down to one point five, I don't think it would impact their lines all that much. The guys who would probably impact the most don't have odds yet in the prop market.
Yeah, and I think that what you just described is a process that everyone should really go through. Once you have your investment thesis, you should be really mindful of exactly which Marcus you're choosing to attack that thesis, because there are too many people that just go through the stock spread and don't really look for any other opportunities in other markets. And the way to really capitalize on Supercharger ROI is to have total awareness of all those markets.
At all times.
That is far easier to do with a market scanning tool like Betscope that will surface those opportunities automatically given a single input.
So what for this game? Then you talk about that in minus one and a half points here, if you were to try and find something for that market, what would you be looking at, Matt.
If I look at you at what markets have special opportunities capitalized. We do see kind of the green highlight around the money line for here, and we do see that there is pretty low synthetic hold. If you're curious on what all of these colors mean as the color as the boxes and different bets are highlighted using different colors, we do have an explainer up here and kind of a little help box over here that indicates what all
these colors mean. In the case of the green box, we see that the synthetic hold, meaning you know, you if to take the overall hold or the juice like when you take the best obs available across all sports books, this is a market that does have low synthetic hold, and so I think if you really wanted to capitalize on that, the best opportunity that's kind of slightly off market from everyone else is the money line at FanDuel, where you know, this is a pretty standard at this point,
just a standard line shopping exercise where you can probably squeak out a little bit more ROI capitalizing on Bear's money line at plus one thirty six, You're going to get a little bit of better price there, and you can see when you compare it to DraftKings, Like, let's say, like your thesis is Fade Freeman at all times because he's a hack and you know you don't really want
to pay attention to him. The best way that I would do that would be to capitalize and bet on the Giants money line at DraftKings, because you can see how clearly off market it is from everywhere else.
And we'll go out of our way, out of.
Our way to highlight those markets that have those either really low holes, split markets, arbitrage opportunities.
We will go out of our way to.
Highlight the markets that haven think a price discrepancies that are indicative of that's maybe the attack factor that you want to go in on for your investment thesis.
Yeah, and you know, to follow up on what Colin said there, and I would say, in all fairness, if you are on the bears in this spot, it probably does make more sense to bet the money line versus the We'll say, like to the two that you're getting in the market, because if they're going to if they're going to have a good game, if they're going to dominate, they're probably not winning by one or two points. It's probably more like three, so I don't know. I prefer.
I actually do prefer in general the money line in this spot to this bread.
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Now, how about this next.
Game that we have up here, gentlemen, We're gonna be looking at the Cardinals going up against the Panthers. Matt, you have the Cardinals plus one and a half, which is still the line that you're going to be getting pretty much anywhere in this one. And what are you thinking in this game?
Yeah?
I have the Cardinals as one point seventy five favorites in this game. Like I do not think there is a world in which Carolina should be favored. Like say that, Yeah, I just I do not see it. You know, I'm looking at these teams, looking at what they've done, and given the priors that I had entering the season, I don't think we've seen enough out of Carolina to move the number in this direction, and Cliff Kingsbury trash. His scheme is so bad. He doesn't have a scheme. It's
just Kyler. Please go bail me out. But that said, he's actually been a I would say he's even been a good coach, but he's been a beneficiary of incorrect line when he has been in certain spots. On the road, he's eighteen six and two against the spread. As an underdog, he's nineteen nine and two against the spread, and as a road dog he is an outrageous fourteen three and two against the spread. On the money line as a road dog, twelve and seven. And then you look at
Matt Ruhle, who is the exact opposite of that. At home, he's five and thirteen against the spread. As a favorite, he is three and ten against the spread, and as a home favorite against the spread and on the money line he is one and seven, absolutely horrible. So you have like these two coaches lining up perfectly in the exact spots where you should be betting on one and betting against the other. And look you have Kyler Murray versus Baker Mayfield, and Baker Mayfield is somehow a favorite.
I feel like that pretty much says it all. You know, both of these teams have similar advantages in the running game. The Cardinals offense is number two in rush success rate, the Payanther's defense is number fifteen in that metric, and then the Panthers offense is number two in rush EPA.
The Cardinals defense is number fifteen in that metric. I think both teams want to lean on the ground game, But when the Cardinals choose to pass, they have Kyler Murray and he has a massive edge relative to Baker Mayfield and a direct edge against the Panthers defense and the secondary. You know, just kind of looking at our Fantasy pros unit power rankings, we have Kyler Murray's the number nine quarterback in the league. The defense for the
Panthers is number nineteen. And as bad as we might think the Cardinals offensive line is, it's no worse than the Panthers defensive line. Like we have the Cardinals with the number twenty four offensive line the Panthers with the number twenty four defensive line. So I think, you know, per usual, Murray is the difference in this game and in the offseason market this number was Cardinals minus two and now it is Cardinals plus one and a half
plus two at some spots. I just I can't imagine that we have seen enough in three games to move this number that much. So I will be taking Cardinals as dogs on the road, very very lustily. I will take them in the spot.
Well, you know the best way that you can do that right now, the best odds you're getting. You've got bet MGM at plus two on the Cardinals, still hanging that number right now, And if you wanted to take advantage of a great offer to bet that at bet mgm, you should sign up for an account today and use the promo code betting pros for one thousand dollars risk free bet right off the bat. Maybe you use that on this Cardinals plus two line, just saying there's some
potential there. But Colin, where would you be looking, given all of the tools at bet Scope, what is that telling you is the best play here in Cardinals versus Panthers.
So coaching driven investment, THESS or lines or angles whatever you want to take, are usually pretty tougher to diagnose because you know, normally when we're talking about how we think the game is going to go slightly different than the market we can key it in on you know, specific player matchups, I think coaching tendencies and how they affect and all those trends and things like that are real, but it's really tougher to transmute that into something like
the prop market, where you have a clear cut like this will influence like this particular player will play by it or worse than usual, And so I tend to lean into just you know, you can stick with the standard spreads and total stock markets, but usually there is some value to be found in the alternate markets as well. So one thing we also highlight here is all of
these alternate spread markets. And what we see is interesting is there's already there's already been some pretty significant price movement in the meantime, because there was a moment here where we did see at some point Arizona plus seven was getting a pretty favorable price from barstool only at around minus three ten. Since then it's moved to minus three eighty five. So there are clearly other people patrolling
these same markets. This is an interesting problem to solve because you know, Friedman, I could ask you, like, great, if you like Arizona at you know, minus one, you think you know the true line for this game should be plus one over here by transitive property. If you like Arizona plus one, you probably also like Arizona plus seven as well, Like you think that's more likely to hit than the quote unquote consensus market price.
Correct.
Yeah, so Arizona, I guess they're plus one, and so yeah, if I like Arizona plus one, I like Arizona plus seven, just depending on what the juice is exactly.
So that is the trickiest question, depending on what the juice is.
And so if I were to put you on the spot, which I guess I am right now, if you like Arizona plus one at minus one ten, at what price would you bet Arizona plus seven? I'm going to stop you there, because I think that is honestly a difficult question to ask unless you're kind of knee deep in knowing, like what the value is of six points, Like we're all like, we all know, like a value of point
maybe half a point and stuff like that. Like, but unless like your knee deep in distributions, that may not be something you can answer, you know, in five seconds.
Well, that is absolutely some Well let me think about this a little bit, uh, I would say maybe plus sorry, Uh, it's okay, So maybe minus two fifty two seventy five.
Yeah, Thomas gonna take a crack at it.
Well, plus one at minus one ten is equal to plus seven at minus three hundred.
Yeah, it's I mean, it's about It depends on what your view of the distribution of outcomes is in that game. And so we all have standard calculators. You know, we can kind of look up and kind of make those inferences. It's very difficult to do on the fly. If you notice that there is a window of opportunity, uh, to get those to lock in those good prices and do that math.
We can do it.
But one of the things we pride ourselves on Betscope is having that math integrate under the hood, where if you can just put in your original thesis, we will do all of that distribution math for you and tell you whether or not it is a positive expectation bet or not. Now I see here that that price is no longer available barstool. It used to be at minus three ten and has since moved to three eighty five.
It's unfortunate that we can't get that price anymore. But all the same, we can change our stats accordingly, run it through the calculator, and see if there's any additional opportunities as of the quick assessment here as a reminder of like what I'm looking at when all of these dots are here and our games dropped down menu, that will tell you how many markets there are of each of each price discrepancy type, whether it's low hold, whether
it's split market, whether or that's arbitrage. As of filming time, I don't see anything available for Cardinals Panthers. But we'll also notice that we only really only have quarterback props up, and so it's not particularly surprising that given that there are no prop markets, there aren't potentially many available BETE
markets with prices creptancy opportunities. So similar to the last game, I would check this closer to kickoff as more of these markets come online and we can kind of see, is there, you know, price movement in all of these different areas.
Yeah, it's it's a game in which both starting running backs are dealing with injuries, and so props haven't been released for them, and you know, the wide receiver units for both teams they're pretty mediocre, and so you know there might not be a robust prop market for this game. Even as we get closer to kickoff, there will be more props released, but you know, we might not have the full menu that we otherwise would if these teams were actually functional.
You're not kidding about the mediocrity of the passing offense. Is the Massy Peabody unit grade for the passing offense for the Cardinals this year, this week or it's on a scale of one hundred.
Yeah, that's amazing, honestly, like surprising to me.
But how does this number change? Because the spread right now isn't one, it's one and a half. How does that have if we to change it to one and a half. How does that affect your calculations? Does it bring up anything for us there?
I think that just given the lack of markets and just like kind of the low maybe liquidity is not the right term, but just given the lack of like attack vectors, I don't think it's going to change much because you know, when you're really looking for opportunities, sometimes it's kind of the classic like you can only play against once the defense. What the defense gives you. The analogy here is if there just aren't a lot of
markets to get down on. There's probably not going to be as much opportunities, so you kind of are limited by what the books offer. That's why it behooves you to stay patients, to monitor the odds as the week progresses, and just monitor tools like these to see, you know, when the opportunities arise. You will see it in the
notifications of whatever opportunities we're surfacing here. It kind of alert you to you know, like the at least the presence of certain markets that you should be attacking.
Well, let's see if there's anything better to attack in our next game. Up here, we've got the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders Denver heads to love Vegas as two and a half point dogs in this one, And Matt, I already know your answer because you have been so low on the Raiders all year, and in all fairness, it's kind of working out as they do sit at zero to three here in this one right now,
so I can't really poke holes in your theory. But that being said, I'm on the opposite side of you in this game here you're going with the Broncos.
Yeah, I have Denver as a slight favorite point two five points, I think they should be favored, and so at you know, plus two and a half, I'm seeing, you know, pretty significant value there. And you know, there are a number of I think ways in which you could look at this and say I just don't I just don't buy it, you know, Like one, you could just look at the Raiders record for one, but you
know we will dive deeper than that. But I also say, Derek Carr, it's not that he should never be favored, okay, but he's thirteen twenty five and one against the spread as a favorite like that clearly has not been a historical spot for betting on him. And Russell Wilson twenty seven to thirteen and two against the spread as an underdog for his career. So we are getting both of
these guys in kind of their sweet spot. And Divisional road underdogs have been especially good in the first month of the season historically one hundred and thirty to ninety five to eight against the spread, good for a twelve point six return on investment for the Divisional Road underdogs. And I think this game really comes down to Russell Wilson against the Raiders pass defense. The Raiders have no offensive edge in this game. But the Broncos have a
big one and that they have Russell Wilson. And it's not as if he's been great this year, but the Raiders have been very subpart in pass defense. They rank bottom six in both drop back EPA and success rate, and that strong edge duo of Max Crosby and Chandler Jones has managed just two sacks. Even let me rephrase that, even with them, it's not that those two guys have two sacks. The entire defense has just two sacks on
the year. And so they let you know, quarterback Justin Herbert walk all over them in week one, they let Kyler Murray come back from a twenty to zero halftime deficit. In Week two, they let Ryan Tannehill save his jaw and maybe the Titan season. In Week three, and they're injured. They've already lost number two cornerback Anthony Averett. They might be without number three cornerback Nate Hobbs, and even number one cornerback Rakya Sin He was on the injury report
with a knee injury. I bet he plays, but still like they are not, They're nowhere close to full health at cornerback, safety for Von morg has been out the past two weeks with the hip injury, and their main off ball coverage linebacker Denzel Perryman, he's been out the past two weeks with an ankle injury. No guarantee that those guys come back this week. One of them might, maybe both of them will, but they probably won't be
one hundred percent healthy. And so it's just a Raiders defense that is very exploitable, and I think we see Russell Wilson have his Broncos breakout against that very weak unit. This line was a pick them, a pick them in the offseason, and maybe the Broncos aren't as good as the market anticipated they would be months ago, but that's definitely true for the Raiders too. So I still think the Broncos should be the slightest of favorites in this game.
And so at two and a half, I really like the value that I'm seeing in the market.
My problem is just.
Who have you played?
And for me with Denver, you've played three teams that I do not think highly of at all. You got Seattle and you could only score sixteen points against them. Yeah, they were the two goal line fumbles and that game should have gone differently, like this team should be three to zero, but even then you got Houston. After that you can only put sixteen points up against that defense. And then you got the forty nine Ers. Okay, the defense is good, but team overall, you got Jimmy Gett quarterback.
And it's an eleven to ten game that sets football back about seventy years in my mind. The Raiders hung tough in there with the Chargers in Week one, and then in week two you have the collapse against Arizona, and then in week three you have another tough game against Tennessee. Honestly, even at oh and three, I think this team has put up better performances so far than
we've seen out of Denver. And I also think it's that division rivalry aspect to it, Like it's not something that you normally want to bet on, but the Raiders always get up for the Denver game and I don't see them falling to oh and four in this spot against Broncos country Let's Ride and his psychopathic sandwich commercials.
I will say I did look in bet labs to see if there were any trends on teams that were oh and three, and there are trends that normally those teams actually do very well against the spread. However, the teams that are home favorites don't. They're just break even. So I don't really think there's I'm not gonna put too much in the the oh and three thing.
For me.
It's also I think that Darren Waller and DeVante Adams are just better than any weapons that they've had to deal with so far. Deebo Samuel nullified by the whole fact that Jimmy G's your quarterback. But Colin, what are you looking at in this game?
I'm looking at the lack of prop markets for the Raiders. Yet again, I feel like a broken record. I mean, like that being said, like it's you know, it's always like relevant to you know, keep in mind when market's open. But in terms of the you know, the markets the best scope has identified for things you might want to attack and the alternate spreads, Raiders minus three and a half has a little bit of price discrepancies here on
both sides. By extension, if you like, you know Denver plus two, you'll also like Denver plus three and a half and what it's able to detect.
With the way that it runs its distributions.
Under the hood is sometimes people will miss do critical mispricing things like make the hook a little bit too cheap. I think Denver plus three and a half. Like we all know the value of the hook. We don't need to, you know, like expound on that a lot. But you can see all the other books have kind of priced it accordingly or in a high minus one thirty. Sometimes in the minus one forty. Barstool only has it at
minus one thirty. So we're identifying an opportunity where they've probably mispriced the hook.
A little bit, made it a little bit too cheap.
The payout is a little bit less, but you know, if it comes down to maybe it's within a field goal, that hook is going to give you.
The extra range of outcomes that you need.
So I think there's opportunity to take the hook at Barstool because I think it made it a little bit too cheap.
In the alternate spreads market.
They're offering three and a half minus one thirty right now. Yeah, yeah, you got to jump on that number.
That eight. We have it set up also as well, so you can just click on it and it I'll take you right to the game.
Page.
One of the critical things, and it's really underrated when you're trying to get down is as these opportunities are, you know, sometimes fleeting only in minutes, the less friction that you can reduce between identifying opportunities and just getting
to the page. We take pains to make sure that we are going to get you with all of our vetted links to that page and to that exact bet as quickly as possible, because at some point this is a timing question, not a ability to identify the edge question. So you really have to utilize every tool at your disposal to make sure that you're capitalizing on these mispricings.
Man, that's that is a great bet because normally I think it doesn't make a lot of sense, because this is just sort of like an extended version of like buying points, you know, and I think normally it doesn't
make a lot of sense to buy points. But if you're you know, looking at the total market and seeing the one area where there has been some mispricing, yeah, to be able to get the hook to go from two and a half to three and a half, to go all the way through the key number to get to three and a half, and to have only minus one thirty right to pay twenty cents there through the key number for that entire point. That is I think very good value.
Absolutely. And this this is where tools like Beths Scope really shine. It's automatically figuring that out under the hood and surfacing it for you. You can imagine how painstaking and laborious it would be to evaluate all those key numbers on the fly, refresh every minute and kind of do that math yourself. This is this should be the domain of a tool to identify places where they've mispriced the hook and just directing towards it as soon as possible.
Now, the next game that you've got up here, Matt, you are looking at the Buccaneers versus the Chiefs. The Bucks getting two points, that's what you're looking at. Here, you're looking at bus two.
I think this numbers might move. This is moved.
It's now Buccaneers favored by one. Yeah.
Yeah, so like it?
No, I'm I mean, if anything, I so let me see here. If anything, I now like Kansas City a little bit, but we're all in that realm of like pick them. I originally had this when I was projecting it as a pick them, and I first bet on this was Tampa Bay plus three when the early line was released, and that has moved down obviously. Now I have Kansas City favored by point five and and so I'm showing like one and a half points of value.
But given where we are in the market, I'm probably honestly not betting this at this point because I, you know, like we're within the realm of it's like it's past my limits, you know.
I but you talked about now maybe like Kansas City a little bit. For me, I'm still worried about these in this injury front for the for the Bucks right now. They they've still got a lot of guys banged up that are supposed to be coming back for this game. But do you think the Brady's gonna have his full compliment of weapons?
Not the full compliment, But you know, Mike Evans is returning. It looks like Julio Jones is going to play. Russell Gage has been playing through his hamstring injury, so like, I don't think we should expect him not to play. Chris Godwin, who knows left tackle Donovan Smith, We really don't know, but he is starting to get some of his players back, So I think that in part is why the line has moved. Also, like I will say, I don't know about the the venue situation for Tampa Bay,
Like I don't know if the market was expecting. I would just say it's weird to me that the line has moved in this direction with the knowledge that the Buccaneers might not be playing this game at home, unless there actually has been clarification that they will be playing in Tampa Bay.
As far as I know, I saw. I can look it up again, but I definitely saw a notification that they're going to play this game in Tampa Bay.
Okay, So I think that explains then at least a part of this line move. But yeah, like I now, at Tampa Bay minus one, I do see some value on Camp the City. Again, I don't think that's anything I would be betting at this point, but you know, maybe callin with Betscope is able to find bets that have even more value on Kansas City, and that would be a way to navigate the market.
Indeed, Colin, I'm actually going to flip it on you, so I know you're asking about the spreads the whole time, but one of the ways that I also use bet scope is actually not to start with my investment thesis first, but to identify the markets with the biggest discrepancies and see if there's a reason to essentially not bet them. So, I know we've been talking about the size of the whole time, but let me flip it on you and just say, like, do you either of you have opinions on the.
Totals either way?
I asked because we scroll through in these alternate totals market and we can see two books here points bet and FanDuel that are on the verge of a straight up arbitrage situation where you could bet both sides of these things if you just feel like fun and basically guarantee a zero percent return. Usually when that's the case, then if we have even the slightest inclination of directionally do we think the total is going to go over
or under? We can capitalize on one of these And I looking at it, these are so far apart on either side of it. I'm indifferent on which side we have. But even if we have the slightest bit of intuition on the totals, this is a market that we should be targeting because the synthetic cold is essentially zero, and so once you're betting into a zero hold market, you're essentially free rolling it over the long term. So either of you have any opinions on the totals. I do.
I have a position on under forty seven. The line is now forty five and a half, but I haven't projected at forty three point seven, so I still think that there's pretty decent value to the under. And I mean the thesis is these teams are going to run, you know, I mean the Buccaneers they have been a run heavy team and the and then when they have been trying to throw, they haven't been doing it all
that efficiently. And then on the other side you have Kansas City, which is running more than they have previously. They don't have the explosive pass offense that they used to have, and they're going against the secondary that is probably the best in the league, if not the best, certainly top three. So this feels like a smash spot for the under.
Absolutely.
I mean, that's a perfectly good investment thesis right there. As you can see what we did with bet scope is we can punch in your projected total of forty three point seven, run it see how that affects all the other props and all the other markets, and updates the numbers accordingly, and we have our spit out recommended bet here.
If you like under forty three three point seven, and by extension.
You know, like you know you like the under on forty six and a half, you also like the under of thirty eight and a half, taking on a little bit more risk for a little bit more payout. As we saw in that previous prop tool comparison, FanDuel has the under thirty eight and a half with a pretty significantly higher payout than the rest of market consensus. If I want to target the under, I feel like this line at this payout at FanDuel is the best way
to target it. And again that's where things like distribution shine and all of the math. We have the under the hood that basically does that full range of outcomes for you. We will surface those opportunities where if you like the under in general, let's figure out the exact totals and the exact payouts that will maximize your return and just give you kind of a pre selective sort order of exactly where you should be going to get that down.
Yeah, thirty eight and a half. That is interesting. I mean, it's not all that far from forty three point seven, and you're still you're still with the key number of thirty eight there, So I actually, I do, I do find that one interesting, especially you said plus two fifty that's pretty significant.
Two point fifty is large, even just comparing to other books. It is large.
That is like a spot where you maybe want to take on a little bit more risk because the higher payout is in fact worth it.
Yeah, now, how.
About one more game here for you, Matt. We've got the forty nine Ers and the Rams on Monday Night Football, because for some reason, our primetime matches continue to be the NFL wanting us to suffer. We got the forty nine ers last week, we get them again this week. The Rams are getting two and a half points in Santa Clara.
Here.
I don't care about the historical trend of the forty nine ers having the Rams number. I'm all aboard the Los Angeles train in this one with the two and a half. Where are you going?
Yeah? So looking now, I did bet this first to two and a half. I believe it's now one and a half across the market and that I would still bet it at one and a half, but that is that is the limit I have it projected for a picklem, so I think one and a half is probably right there at the limit. You look at some of the historic you had mentioned, Yeah, there is the historical trend of Kyle Shanahan just absolutely owning Sean McVay eight and
three against the spread. It includes the postseason, but you know McVeigh has been good in primetime, fifteen ten and one against the spread in primetime, good on the road, twenty four and eighteen on the road as a road dog, eight and three against the spread, and eighteen twelve and one against the spread in division. And then Kyle Shanahan, Tom, you know exactly what I'm going to say. Shanahan as a home favorite is absolutely someone to bet against at home.
He's fifteen twenty two and one against the spread as a favorite, seventeen twenty six and one against the spread, and as a home favorite seven fifteen and one against the spread on the money line, eleven eleven and twelve as a home favorite, which is good for a fifty percent return on investment per per bet Labs. And for me, this game comes down in the x's and o's. It comes down to the Rams defensive line against the forty nine Ers offensive line. That offensive line is in a
really bad spot. Left tackle Trent Williams is almost certainly out for the game with an ankle injury. Center Daniel Brun's Goal is yet to play this year with a hamstring injury. He didn't even practice last week, so I don't think he's close to suiting up. So with the forty nine Ers missing their two most important offensive linemen, I think that puts him in a really bad spot against defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who I think could just destroy.
And the forty nine Ers offense is built around their running game, right they're number three in the league with a fifty three point four percent rush rate, but the Rams defense is number one in rush EPA like, I don't think the forty nine Ers are going to be able to run the way that they want to run against the Rams front, and they could struggle in pass
protection too without their two top offensive linemen. So given how good he is as a blocker, we might see tight end George Kittle stay in a little bit more to pass protect, which, like in theory, that's good, but in reality, that means one of your best receivers isn't out there running routes, and that's a bad thing overall. So I think the Rams have a significant edge over the forty nine ers in the trench matchup. We have them as the number two defensive line. The offensive line
for the forty nine Ers ranked number eighteen. So if the forty nine Ers can't run and if they struggle to pass protect for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, they have basically nothing going for them on offense. And we saw what that looked like last week, right when they scored just ten points against the Broncos on Sunday Night Football. This line was Rams point five in the offseason, and I still think that if they shouldn't be favored at worse,
this should be a pick them. I don't think we've seen enough in the past three weeks to justify the move from point five to plus two and a half.
I'm fully with you on this one. I am all boy the Rams train, as I said, But Colin, I know there aren't too many props out for this one just yet. But is there any way that you're looking at to attack this game?
I mean, that's why I always run it through the simulation engine first and then see there's any opportunities.
I'm guessing it won't find.
Like I mean, given where the line is at now, it probably won't identify any slam dunk markets to attack. As stated previously, that's just because there aren't many markets available in general, and so this is going to be one where as we get closer to Sunday night, as more markets come online, I'm going to be checking that far more often to see if there's any kind of misalignment in any of the prices where I can get down on exactly.
Everything that you've just described.
One of the other virtues that are worthwhile is sometimes it is worth it to be a little bit more patient, and if you have a thesis, you don't need to bet it immediately. It often behooves you to wait until more markets open up and you can identify those mispricings. So don't feel like you have to be compelled to bet it immediately. You can benefit from a little bit of patients and wait for some of these additional markets to come online, kind of like a snake in the grass waiting to stray.
I'm going to not push back to what Colin just said, but like add to it, like supplement it to where I think there can be sort of the tiered approach where the markets that like, the best time to bet a market, generally speaking is when it first comes open, like that is when it will be the softest, and so, uh, if you like betting on spread total money line, I think it's earlier, Like earlier is better for betting on that if you if you actually have an edge there,
and then as other markets come open, you can continue to employ your thesis in attacking the other markets. So and I will say, you know, like if you this is sort of like getting into like the practicality of
like how you sports bet. If you attack only the alternative markets, like that will flag pretty quickly to a sports book that like not necessarily that you are sharp, but that like you are not square, that like you are looking at things outside of what the ordinary better looks at, and so like you will need to have some spreads and totals and money lines in there. It can't be all props and all alternate lines, or they
might limit you or just shut you down entirely. So I think it's probably like the tiered approach of betting throughout the week as the value presents itself in various markets.
There's the other factor there with betting the market early, as it's wing into the softest you get the advantage of the softest market, but the disadvantage of the least
amount of information. Right there's anything that can happen between Sunday night and the next week, Guys getting hurt in practice, injury reports coming out from guys that we are waiting on, and obviously, you know, if you're waiting for the Thursday night game with Tua and it looks like he just left the game with the concussion, you're not gonna go ahead and bet that Thursday night line before you get
that information. But with eyes and things that can happen over the course of the week, it is that drawback and you have to make that balance where you want to do it.
Yeah, I mean, I think I think that's right. I would say that, Yeah, the information, there's like the wide range right to where if there's not much information that you are waiting on for a game, then it probably makes sense to bet it early. If there is a lot of information that you're waiting on, you still might be able to bet it early, but you might still want to think about the way in which you're doing it to try to leverage the uncertainty that is in that market.
Indeed, and also the big thing that has changed from betting over the last two years to betting now. Of course, the last two years it was really hard to bet early because you never knew what was going to happen on Saturday night when it came to guys being out with the rona for the week. And that's finally behind this. Now I do not miss those betting days.
Yeah, absolutely, Now it just gets marked as illness YEP, injury report.
Yeah all right, but that is going to do it for us here, guys, Colin, thank you so much for coming on today one more time. For everybody. Where can they find you in the great work that you're doing around the internet.
You can find you can find me on Twitter at the handle of adj baseline. And then if you want to take a look at the tool yourself, which is currently free to use, you can go to betscope dot io and I run all of your thess and through our recommendation engine to surface the best markets.
That you should be attacking for all of your best.
Thank you once again so much for coming on today. The Betscope tool was very fascinating. I am excited to put it to good use in my betting, but for now, for Colin, Matt and myself, Tom, that is going to do it for us. Best of luck this weekend, guys, don't forget. If you want to bet, go to BETMGM dot com, sign up for an account today. Use the promo code Betting Pros when you sign up and you'll
get a one thousand dollars risk free bet. And once again, thanks and congratulations to Matthew Derek on winning our signed Joe mix in Jersey. That's gonna do it for us, folks, and we will see you next episode.
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