Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm your host Thomas Piolin joining me as always none other than the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and today to help us break down the reactions to Week two, adjust our power ratings, and see which teams truly are the best and worst going into Week three, none other than Spreadipedia himself Jason Weingarten. Jason, how are you doing today?
Pretty good?
Nice to talk to you again. I had had fun last time last time I was on the show with you.
Absolutely it was great having you on, of course last time. If people want to go back, Baseball season isn't quite over yet. Amazingly, it's not over for the Mets. They they just clinched the playoff spot. But on our last conversation with Jason, we talked about the dangers of no run first innings, how you should probably be betting the yes instead, and a whole bunch of other great conversations. But today, guys, we are talking all about the NFL. It was another wild.
Week of action.
Three different teams had ninety nine percent or higher win percentage chances and manage to lose their games. Matt, it was a nuts week. But before we get started on it, I want to remind everybody that if you want to win a sign Joe Mix in Cincinnati Bengals jersey courtesy of our friends at Pristine Auction, you need to subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now comment below
this video and that's it. We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel, so make sure to turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. Now, Matt, let's shift into the forty nine er game here. How far are the Niners going up or down your power rankings based off of that Trey Lance injury. Jimmy g obviously finished the game at quarterback. He's going to be the quarterback the rest of the season. Matt, where are
you looking with the forty nine ers? Because they're odds shortened, they are now a more likely Super Bowl winner than they were before Week two because of this injury here, I'm inclined to push them up my power ratings as well.
Yeah, I moved the Cowboys up pretty significantly. I moved them up a point based on what we saw last week. I maybe had downgraded them too much in the move from Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush. And I should say, like, obviously, like quarterback moves, those are really the only things that should make you move your power ratings significantly weak over week.
But yeah, we have a quarterback change here in San Francisco, and I've bumped the forty nine ers up point seventy five points in my power ratings, and honestly, like I kind.
Of don't know if it's enough.
I feel like, you know, probably Jimmy g is like at least a point better against the spread on a neutral field relative to Trey Lance, who was highly unproven. And you know, say whatever you want about Jimmy Garoppolo since he joined the forty nine ers. You know, twenty seventeen, he was the number four quarterback in the league in
completion percentage over expectation and EPA combined. That's not like a perfect metric, but it's a pretty good, you know, like number one is Patrick Mahomes, number two is Drew Brees, number three is to Shaun Watson, and number five is Aaron Rodgers. Like for Jimmy Garoppolo to be in that list, it doesn't mean like it's sort of like very clearly like the which one of these guys is not like
the others. So it's not to say he's an elite quarterback, but it is to say that within the confines of what he is asked to do, within that Kyle Shanahan system, he can do it pretty well. And so we have a pretty large sample size of knowing what Garoppolo can do within that offense and knowing what the offense can do with Garoppolo as the starting quarterback, and it can
function pretty highly. So I have, I want to say, like aggressively, but I've significantly moved up the forty nine ers with the new quarterback situation.
Now, Jason, how about you, how are you feeling about this forty nine Ers team moving forward?
I think it probably helps them in the short term.
Lance was the guy they wanted to develop long term and lead this team on a rookie contract. But they made the right decision keeping Garoppolo and it paid off.
It paid off early.
I think the locker room is very happy that, you know, Garoppolo is the guy, or at least there is a certain faction of the locker room that probably preferred him to be the starting quarterback to begin with, and you know, I think they're going to probably be a playoff contender this season. Wouldn't surprise me to see him make a run at the division.
Again, I'm with you. I think that all of a sudden, this team bumps up a lot because of this, And that's not a hot take. It is pretty much the consensus right now. It's been well documented that I am not on the Trey Lance train. Obviously, we hope that he has a speedy recovery and is back and right at him next year. But from a pure football standpoint, this team is better with Jimmy g at the helm. And now all of a sudden, I'm regretting my nine er seven win ticket. But we still have plenty more
to get to here. Moving on to some other teams, Guys, again, it was a topsy turvy week, and now we have a two week sample size, we're starting to see, Okay, what was a week one fluke? What might actually be a trend or a pattern here? What were some of the biggest surprises for you out of these week two games?
Man?
Yeah, I mean big surprises, you know, all the big come from behind victories, the Jets winning outright. Your Jets winning out right, by the way, congratulations on that long suffering Jets fan. The Dolphins coming back from down twenty one, Arizona coming back, Jacksonville winning outright and shutting out the Colts while doing it. And then of course the Cowboys, My Cowboys beating the Bengals. That was very surprising. Although you know, Mike McCarthy now six and two against the
spread as an underdog without Dak. You know, that's not to say that Mike McCarthy is like a great coach, because I believe he very much is not. But maybe it is to say that Dak isn't as significant in that offense as I would have expected him to be.
Guys, real quick, remember when you're looking for free picks and sports betting advice, bettingpros dot com has you covered with tips from over one hundred and fifty experts to make it easy for you to cash out. Download the app to get sports betting alerts. You'll get notified of favorable bets based online movements, consensus picks from the most accurate experts, and vetted systems in play. Betting Pros monitors all of the major sports books, most accurate experts and
top systems to identify the best betting opportunities. So download today in the Apple or Google Play stores. All right, Jason, and how about you, what were some of the things that you really weren't expecting to see through two weeks of this NFL season.
Well, first, you mentioned the Jets.
I actually didn't even know the Jets have won that game until like probably two or three in the afternoon. I was got to the Rams game at that point and someone texted me, wow that the Browns were a big pick and survivor and I was like, what are you talking about the Browns?
One? Right?
Oh, so yeah, that was that was news to me. I think Detroit obviously has been a story so far. They look, you know, like they're they're on the up. Philadelphia has has been impressive so far through the game and a half.
I got to watch them, and then Tampa.
I was really, really, really down on Tampa coming into the season and they're two and zero and favorites in Week three against Green Bay. So as usual, I've I've been wrong about Tampa. You know, I've been wrong about Tom Brady just about every every season.
I continue to do.
So it's so hard, he's forty five. At some point you're just like, come on, he has to fall off. Maybe it is this year now, Like, I'm a little worried about this team moving forward with obviously no Godwin at the moment. Now you have no Mike Evans next weekend, viously decided to go into UFC against Marshall Lattimore there and without the weapons. Does this team finally slow down? It's a question that we're gonna have to ask. But one thing that I'm surprised about neither of you brought
up the Bengals. I really did not have the Bengals being zero to two right now and just looking as bad as they have. Matt, what do you think?
Yeah, I mean, it's it's a question, is too like we all knew or I tell you know, we all knew, but like there was this strong sentiment that the Bengals, I wouldn't say they were due for regression, but that they could struggle this year. And they have an especially hard, hard schedule to open the year, you know, in weeks two through eight, So you know after Week one right weeks two through eight, they have a stretch four or
five games away, five of seven games away. You know, some of their road games aren't all that bad, you know, like against the Jets, but it's still on the road. And so everyone knew, like, hey, this could be a team that even if they improve overall, they could still not win as many games as they did last year. And it's not just that they like, oh, they've improved
and had some tough luck. It's just that, like, they're not looking better than they were last year, and their offensive line, which should ultimately be better than last year's unit was, it is taking a while for that unit to coalesce. So it's I don't think it's a surprise that they have started oh in two, but I think it's a surprise in the way in which they have started oh and two. You know, like losing against the Steelers, Okay,
a divisional opponent in Week one. You know, anything can kind of happen in that situation, and you think before the season, okay, losing on the road to the Cowboys, you think, yeah, like you could see how they lose that game. But you know, losing to Mitch Trubisky when he looks horrible, and losing to Cooper Rush that doesn't like jive with how it was that we imagine this would go down.
I'm out here going now, Okay, they go into Week three, They're playing the Jets in New York. I was gonna pick this team for my Survivor this week, and all of a sudden, I'm looking over the shoulder, like, I don't think the Jets are gonna win two games in a row. That's not a very Jets thing to do. But I don't know, are you thinking that maybe is there a risk here? I'm probably not gonna play them in Survivor, but could the Bengals start zero to three? Jason, what do you think?
Yeah? I bet the Jets this weekend.
I bet the Bengals missed the playoffs this week after starting hing two.
I think they're in a really bad spot.
Matt pointed out, they're unfavorable scheduling situations. That's something I have circled as well. So like, this week is their second of a back to back road road games, So I'm really happy to take the Jets as a dog at home here.
The other thing, what is it?
Joe Burrow has been sacked like seven times a game, both both games to start the season. That is a lot of sacks. You extrapolate that over the entire season, that would be over one hundred sacks. Not that that's going to happen, because if he gets anywhere close to that number, he's gonna be out injured because that's just such an unsustainable amount of hits for a professional quarterback to take. So there is a lot of stuff I
don't like going with Cincinnati. They're bad offensive line, the unsustainability of the hits, Joe Burrows taking starting zero in two, another back to back road trip coming up to Baltimore and New Orleans. I think it is, you know, two teams that aren't going to take it easy on them on defense at all.
So a lot of negatives going for the Bengals.
Not to mention that Zach Zach what's the name, Zach Taylor is the head coach. You know, maybe last year just was a whole string of lucky. They got the Raiders in the playoffs, they beat the Titans, and they got really lucky against the Chiefs. You know that that took a whole bunch of things and missed field goals and whatnot to even get to the to the super Bowl. So now they're coming off this this extended playoff run. They have a bad offensive line, wouldn't even surprise me
my boldest pick. I just wrote about this this this week for Viisen. Actually, I bet the Bengals to have the worst record in the NFL at fifty to one. I think that's way too high, especially when you look at the schedule. They got the Bills, they got Tampa Bay. They don't have a lot of easy games in the pipeline, so things go south in Cincinnati. They can go south quickly, and the Bengals can be the bung Goals again, you know, before we know it.
Well, that's I mean, fifty to one for the Bengals to have the worst record in the league. I'm wondering so obviously like kind of wide range of outcomes with how things could could unfold with this team. Wide range may be skewed towards the downside with them. I'm wondering how much you have adjusted your assumptions about the baseline for this team so week over week I've bumped them down zero point five points relative to where I had
them previously. Honestly, I was attempted to bump them down a little bit more, but that just felt like I would be too aggressive. But how how are you like viewing this team in a vacuum.
Well, remember that they're fortunate in the fact that every other team in their division right now is one and one, and you know, a win this week puts them, you know, turn turns things around, you know, fairly quickly, at least in terms of, you know, attempting to make the playoffs and win the division.
And all that stuff.
But you mentioned range of outcomes, and it's just if they if they lose this week, their situation is not great at zero to three. With Miami come into town, you know, it's just a hard offense to defend against. Then they go they have the back to back road trip I mentioned Baltimore and New Orleans. They get a little bit the easiest sort of chunk of their schedule with with Atlanta and uh, what's it called the Browns
without Deshaun Watson, and they get Carolina. But after that second half of the season's absolute bloodbath starts at after the bye week, they they're at Pittsburgh at Tennessee, they get Kansas City, Cleveland at home with Deshaun Watson, at Tampa Bay at New England. Late in the season, Buffalo and Baltimore. You know those are all, you know, not not easy games, especially when you have a quarterback that's getting smashed on a weekly basis.
So just range of outcomes, things go south. They go south quickly. Here.
I'm not even convinced Zach Taylor makes it through the whole season if it if it goes as bad as it could. If I was looking for a cheap first coach fired, I would pick Zac Taylor at a big number.
I didn't see that today I was looking for it. Though.
It is worth remembering this team's only two years removed from what another first overall pick or dam They.
Weren't very good, They got very good very quickly, and then a lot of luck played into that. It just, you know, like this, This team lost to the Jets as recently as last year.
Don't don't forget that.
They I like Joe Burrow a lot, but the unsustainability of him continuing to get hit is a major thing. That's that's not really being talked about a lot right now.
Shout out to Mike White. Now, guys, is the are the Bengals the team that is dropping the furthest in your power rankings right now? Or is there someone that you were looking at with an even more negative light after two weeks of the season, Matt, Yeah.
There were a number of teams that I dropped down this week, all point five points. The Rams don't look like the Rams of last year, or maybe you know, it's just say the Rams last year were very streaky, and they you know, they put a good run of games together. But you know, any any good team can lose to the Bills. That's fine. Refusing to close out the Falcons was pretty concerning. Also the Denver Broncos. I mean, I think Russell Wilson is not the Russell Wilson of
five years ago. And the head coach that they have is definitely not the head coach they want to have next year. It's a really negative situation. I've also downgraded the Colts, who I'm just sorry. Like the Jags, Okay, maybe they're better than we thought they were, But if all it takes is losing one wide receiver and one mindbacker for you to get beat by twenty four points by the Jags, you're not as good as everyone thought
you were. The Titans, that that's obvious. Uh, And then the Steelers, you know, like I want to like this team. They've got a lot of grit. Uh, They've got a I think an underappreciated defense, but they have Mitch Trubisky a quarterback, and I just I have to downgrade them. Honestly, I thought this number should be three, you know, looking ahead towards week three, uh Thursday night football. Uh, you know with the Browns, I thought the number should have
been three. I think it was three in the look ahead market. It's now I think like five. Uh So I'm probably I'm probably still too high on the Steelers to be honest.
I I personally think that the problem is losing TJ. Watt because that that team is what zero to five now in games where Watt doesn't play, that defense really struggles to function once he's once he's out.
Yeah.
And then on the offensive side, like you said, no, Mitch Trubisky is not the answer. And eventually you have to think sooner rather than later, Kenny baby hands pick it has to be getting the call to go to get on the field and start playing more.
Right, I don't think, I hope.
I don't think Kenny Pickett's gonna play much this season. They've been They've been pretty public that he's gonna sit on the bench and learn, and it would be very un Steelers like for them to all of a sudden change their mind and just throw them in, especially early in the season. If things get away from them, you know, maybe he starts a couple of games late, but I don't see them, you know, taking the team away from Trabitsky.
And I think, uh, this Week two game against the Patriots, it was just a bad spot in general, coming off the Week one overtime, so it didn't surprise me that they came out flat there. I wouldn't write the Steelers off just yet, though I bet them to win the division at ten to one before the season.
I think the TJ.
Watt injury really sucks, though, but still earlier I don't think. I don't think I would just totally write off everything they're doing.
Give it, give it some more time.
I'm still holding out hope on my thirty three to one Mike Tomlin Coach of the Year ticket. The hope is not completely dead just yet, but it's it's on life support. The flip side of it is, with all these injuries, if they make it to the playoffs, I feel like I have a great chance, they just have to get there. But sorry, go, no, you go.
I'd say, I don't think Coach of the Year is going to matter if the Bills go fifteen and two. You know, Sean McDermott, I actually bet some of that today. But I agree with most of what Matt said about the Rams. I've down downgraded them. I thought, even even coming off that win against the Falcons, they easily could have lost that game.
They got lucky, not only late in the game, but they got lucky.
Early in the game that the first possession was a turnover on turnover on downs or missed field goal or whatever. There were a lot of situations I think that the Falcons could have taken advantage and scored more points in that game early. Besides the Rams, though, I also have downgraded the Titans a bit. Basically, all the O and two teams a downgrade for me, but the Titans and the Bengals, I think, you know, I could almost guarantee you one of those two teams is not at the playoffs this year.
I mean, I think that's a pretty safe bet. I was low on the Titans going into the season, but I'm kicking myself right now because I did not pick the Texans eighty to one. I talked about it, I danced around it. I never took the Texans to win that division at eighty to one, and I really really wish I had. But man, the teams at the top there, the Titans and the Colts both just look like garbage
right now. Matt already talked about it a little bit with Okay, you lose Michael Pittman, you lose Shaquille Leonard, But twenty four points to the Jags, especially when you have that game marked on the calendar after what happened at the end of last season. Is it time to panic? Jason on the Colts? Are you writing them off completely? And if so, can we just not give out a division winner in the AFC South.
I'm not writing them off completely, but I am unimpressed with them.
I did have the Jaguars week two.
You know, it's it's not a terrible, terrible spot to be in. I guess oh one and one is still better than oh and two, especially in that division when you know no one's gonna really run away with it. I don't like the Texans very much, just because Lovey Smith seems to kind of go into turtle mode late in the games, and he's he's very very unaggressive. I just like, like, I want I want him to be
more aggressive. And I understand, you know, maybe he feels limited what he could do with Davis Mills or whatever. But you know, I'm not I'm not into this team at all. UH division totally up for grabs. I like the Jaguars, though, I think Trevor Lawrence's is what's up in that division.
I feel like a lot of people kind of forgot about him after last year and are forgetting that, Hey, urban Meyer was probably not the best guy to help develop him. And also it's not like he didn't have just such astounding college career. You know, this guy has the talent, and now we're starting to see a little bit more of that come to fruition under Doug Peterson.
But one team we haven't talked about so far. Maybe it's because I know I was a little higher on them than most and now they're dealing with a whole host of problems. But the Saints, they obviously were a mixed bag. You came out in Week one, you were okay, and then in Week two against the Bucks, the offense was a no show. Jamis was back to throwing his interceptions.
How concerned are you guys about this team, especially with the fact that apparently Jamis Winston is playing with no back right now, Matt, where do you have the Saints?
You know? I actually I bumped the Saints up a little after their Week two performance. I thought they they looked pretty good. You know, they might be frustrating, but they hung with the Bucks. And the Bucks have a great defense, maybe the best defense in the league, certainly top three, and it was only after Lattimore was ejected that the Bucks were able to do more on offense.
But I think that was really a pretty close game, and given that the Saints were able to hang the way that they were, I think that they're deserve an upgrade after that. So I still have them as a, you know, a kind of like league average team on a neutral field. But I don't know. The defense doesn't doesn't worry me at all. It might be the inconsistency with Jamis Winston in the back issues, but the inconsistency gives them a really wide range of outcomes.
Jason, how about you? In the eights, I think.
Tays from Hill is their best chance to be a playoff contender at quarterback.
You know, I really thought they should have put him in more in that game.
And like Matt said, I mean, anytime you hold a good NFL team to three points through three quarters, we're doing something right. And uh, I mean the Bucks should be more concerned through their first eight quarters. They didn't look great against the Cowboys defense. They didn't look great
against the Saints defense. It wasn't until Marshaun Lattimore got ejected that you know that the Saints kind of came alive with a little bit of help from Jamis Winston, you know, throwing some some easy interceptions to to the Bucks defense as well. So all all around, I think this is the same Saints team we've seen for the last couple of years. It's it's got, you know, players
all across the board. They're strong, you know, Kamara, Michael Thomas is back, they added uh, Chris Olave the wide receiver rookie.
They got a lot going for them.
They got a strong defense, continuity with the coaching staff more or less.
But it's the quarterback.
It's just Jameis Winston is not going to be the cou It's gonna win you these games and until they figure that out, and I don't know. Like I said, I think Taysom Hill is the answer. It's clear they don't think he is. But I would love to see him get a real shot at playing quarterback healthy, because you know, playing that sort of hybrid tight end running quarterback thing and it just doesn't get him enough touches
to use him the way he should be used. I think he needs to be full time starting quarterback and you know, see see how the team plays with him in the lineup healthy.
Sean Payton is cheering on listening to this podcast in his car right now. Matt. I don't know though that that's a take right there. They tried the storm and Mormon a bit last year. Wasn't necessarily the most successful thing. But Matt, he was.
Real injured last year though, too. He wasn't one healthy.
That is true, Matt. What do you think? Uh?
Yeah, I respectfully disagree. I mean, I think the I think the thing with Taysom Hill is that like as wide as wide as the jamis Winston range of outcomes is, it's even wider with Taysom Hill. And so the fact that he is a quarterback who is unconventional, means that like the defensive game planning is harder for him that week. Uh,
and so that could give the Saints an edge. But I think that, uh he it would It wouldn't take long before in a sort of t Bowt esque type of fashion, he would be exposed.
Uh.
Maybe I'm just wrong, you know, maybe I'm wrong, But I think Winston or like even Andy Dalton as the number two. Like if Winston were injured and out, Dalton would be the guy to come in and not Taysom Hill. And I think Dalton probably has like the higher floor, Uh, Taysom Hill probably. It feels so wrong to say Tasom Hill probably has the higher ceiling relative to Dalton.
Guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper. Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions of players. You probably already have a fantasy league on there. My friends and I changed over this year and I absolutely love it. It's a game changing product unlike anything else in the industry, and now you can win on Sleeper by playing their new over undergame. It's super simple.
First in any sport, choose two or more players that you like and pick the over under, for example rushing yards in a football game or number of points in a basketball game. Then choose the amount of money you want to enter into the contest. If you pick correctly, you can win anywhere from two times so over twenty times the money you put in. The main reason I'm excited about over Under on Sleeper is that it's the only app where I can join my friends contests and
play together. It's got a built in group chat where I can see and copy my group's picks with the tap of a button. Along with over under integrated into the fantasy experience itself, it's insanely fun to ride it out together. So stop what you're doing and download Sleeper now to play their new over under game. Have fun with your friends and make some money. Use the promo code Betting Pros when you sign up for a Sleeper account today, and Sleeper will automatically credit your account one
hundred dollars to get you started. In terms of conditions apply see Sleeper Dot comfort details. I don't think that you can replay I'm with you. I don't think you can replace Jamis with Dalton. If you were gonna make a change, I think you do try the Taysom Hill experiment, but I personally think you give Jamis a little more time. I think the back injury is having a serious effect here, and that's not the only injury that I'm worried about
going into this next week. Guys, what about the Chargers because apparently now Justin Herbert is dealing with rib injury. They say that he should be able to play, and he should be okay, but I'm still scared, especially because I don't know if they fired that doctor from the other season or not. Matt, how concerned you about Justin Herbert? Not just potential threat of life, but ability to play football?
Whoever it was who injected Tara Taylor. That guy no longer is with the team. Hopefully, certainly let's keep him away from the ribs of Justin Herbert. I'm not as worried about Justin Herbert maybe as I should be. I think he plays in Week three, especially with the three extra days of rest. Deepak Shona, who's our injury expert at Fantasy pros, He suggested that this injury is more about pain than about anything else, and that the pain
can be managed. You know, but this line it opened at seven the look aheadline I believe was nine nine and a half and in the regular season, sorry, in the preseason market, this number was ten, and so having it at seven just feels a little bit short. I actually I project it for around nine, and so I think that there's some value here. And maybe the reason why it's seven has something to do with the Justin
Herbert injury. I think it also has to do with maybe some Jags enthusiasm, and maybe the also the desire not to trust Brandon Staley as much as we previously had because he's just not going to be as aggressive and that would maybe mean just fewer points all around for the team. So maybe you put all that together and seven is a better number than the look ahead we had at nine. But I'm just I'm not too worried about the Justin Herbert ribs component of this.
Jason, I know you're a Rams fan, but what do you think about the other team in LA I'm a.
Little worried about his ribs. I mean, he did not look like he was throwing. You know, he was in a lot of pain at the end of that game. Getting us to cover there now, gotta thank.
Him for that.
But I'm not super impressed with Brandon Staley's game management. Haven't been since the Week seventeen overtime game that I still wish had ended in a tie for many, many reasons, mostly financial. But you know, I think i've I just haven't been impressed with the way he's managed end of game situations.
And the Chargers tend.
To be one of those teams kind of like the Lions, where I always joke, it doesn't matter what the score is, just let me know who has the ball in the final possession, because these games always come down to the end. I really like their defense. I bet Khalil Mack to have the most stacks. I bet him to win Defensive Player of the Year. You know, I think he's it's like thirty one, so he's slightly on the wrong side
of the defensive player of your age curve. But I like his situation and the fact that he can get double digit sacks in this defense. But you know, I think I think it's It's been popular the last couple of years to pick against Kansas City and try to find reasons why they're not gonna sustain success, and through two weeks they look as good as they they normally do, and probably the only thing overshadowing them is the Buffalo Bills.
Otherwise we'd be saying Kansas City is the best team in the AFC.
Again, and Matt, what do you think about Kansas City? That's not necessarily where I was thinking of going next, but it's a great point. There were people writing their demise with the loss of Tyreek Hill. Have you been impressed with what this team has been able to do? Is it that they haven't had a truly challenging game yet? What are your thoughts on Kansas City? Where are they in your rankings right now?
I mean they're number two. I totally agree with Jason, and if you look at you know, some of the the more advanced numbers, they're you know, top two, even top one, top one, number one offense in the league, and Patrick Mahomes is number one in EPA and completion
percentage over expectation, you know, composite metric. So I still think that the Chiefs are it's hard to say that they are the better team than the Bills like they are, they are not, but I still think that they are right right there, and I do think that they are still underappreciated within the market so very much with Spreadipedia there on on the Chiefs. But yeah, I will say that I still have them a tier below the Bills.
Like I want to put the Chiefs up in that tier, but like I still haven't been able to do it yet.
Now, guys, this next team that I want to talk about here, I had in the rundown from before last night, and see if you can spot the issue with them. Now, the Vikings. They looked fantastic in Week one against the Packers, and then last night against the Eagles happened primetime Kirk Cousins came back out and we were reminded of, oh, yeah,
maybe this team does have some limitations here. To me, after one week, I was ready to put them a top three spot on my board, right behind as one of the best teams in the NFC and in the NFC in general. All of a sudden, now I'm actually taking what happened last night and saying this impacts my evaluation of the Packers more than the Vikings. I think the Vikings are still pretty good and they're gonna be
better games for Kirk Cousins than this one. But now I'm looking back at the Packers through two weeks and saying, Okay, I think this team seriously does have some big issues still, especially in the passing game. Without Devonte Adams, even with Allen Lazard back, what's striking to me. I don't think they're gonna be able to move the football down the field as quickly and efficiently as they used to. They have to lean on that running game a lot more.
And I think it's gonna do fine when they're playing teams like the Bears. I don't think that they're gonna do as well when they have to come up against some of these bigger offenses like a Chiefs, Bucks or Bills. Where are you guys going on the Packers right now? And then also the Vikings after that game?
Yeah, and I would like to get to get Jason's thoughts on the Packers here. I'm of the opinion that what we saw in Week one had more to do with circumstances than with the Packers themselves or with the Vikings.
You know, without their left tackle, without their right tackle, without their number one wide receiver, without their two top receivers from last season, and then their left guard suffers a concussion in the middle of the game, and you know, for whatever reason, they were playing a very suboptimal defense zone like soft zone against the Vikings, and so Justin Jefferson was able to get a lot of whatever he
wanted in that game. In week two, they got back Alan Wizzard, they got back right tackle Elston Jenkins, they got back left guard John Running, and I think sooner or later they're going to get back left tackle David Baktiari, and that wide receiver unit is going to start to coalesce. I do agree with you. The offense will be different.
They will be more run focused, and in the passing game, I think they will focus more on the shorter passing game, more passes to running backs, which, like that's not the most efficient way to function, but I still think it will be a pretty good offense tom As you know, I was low on the Vikings entering the year, and so I did bump them up pretty significantly after week one, but I haven't adjusted them at all after week two
because I was already low on them. So I viewed them as being about a point better than average on a neutral field, and I am I'm fine with that. I do think that given given that they have Aaron Rodgers, given the success that they've had. The Green Bay Packers are still one of the top you know, eight, top six teams in the league.
Jason, how about you? Where are you going on? First the Packers and then the Vikings.
Didn't really worry me week one. They did the same thing last year.
I think, you know, when when you have a veteran quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, you can throw out week run week one results. And like Matt said, they were missing starting tackles, and you know, those are all big deals. Especially, I think we frequently don't pay attention to offensive line injuries as much as we should, you know, for handicap and purposes.
I think especially that's something.
That that people people don't you know, amateur handicappers probably don't pay enough attention to It's something that could significantly help them long term. But you know, line linemen are a very important part of the game, even though they rarely, if ever get mentioned or touched the ball. Not worried about the Packers, I am less impressed with the the the Vikings after last night. You know, I think the Justin Jefferson Offensive Player of the Year crowd got a
rude awakening last night. I bet Stephan Diggs actually Offensive Player of the Year after two weeks. I think I think that there's a lot of proxy value on the Bills via different awards at the moment other than m VP that was that was one of them. But I think you know that there was a lot of talk about that them just the Rams offense, the coach coming over and everything just clicking. But the reality is Kirk Cousins is Kirk Cousins, and he's another guy.
He's like a.
Jamis Winston where he's just in that tier of quarterbacks. Like are you really excited to have a playoff run with him? Do you really think he's gonna win you a super Bowl?
Like he might.
Everything might click and you might a Bengals like run, but it's not happening. You know, Like I'm not I'm a Packers fan, I'm not a Vikings fan, but you know I can always look over at Minnesota and be like, haha, you have Kirk Cousins and they got no defense. At the end of the day, it's you know they would might you know, anyone any Vikings fan who tells you they wouldn't take Aaron Rodgers right now is bualt face liar.
The way I put it with Kirk Cousins, Kirk Cousins is a bus driver. That is all he's going to be good at for you. You can trust him most of the time to get the kids to school, like you can trust him in charge of the school bus. You're not handing him the keys to a NASCAR to to a NASCAR ride and say go out and win this race. He's not going to be on that level for you. He's a game manager and you need a great team around him to make him the best that he can be. And then even when you get that,
and yes, there were some problems last night. One of the interceptions not really his fault with with Justin Jefferson running the wrong kind of route and then yed Irv Smith dropping a touchdown. There were moments that weren't his fault, but it's not like he looked good and he especially imploded late and that gives me a lot of cause
for worry. Like you said, he's not going to be able to go up against the top teams and be the difference maker that you need him to, you know, Matt, Yeah, you know what I mean, Matt.
Yeah, absolutely, you know he's Kirk Cousins That basically says it all.
All right, guys, right now, if you were to be making a future's bet, if you were to be hopping on to bet MGM using the promo code Betting Pros to get a thousand dollars risk free bet, and you wanted to put it on an NFL future, what would you be looking at at this moment? And also, fun fact, you can in fact do that right now and head on over to our friends at bet at MGM and get that thousand dollars risk free bet with the promo code betting Pros. Matt, what's your future?
I honestly don't know if I have one specific future that I would be looking at, but I do know that you know, MVP tends to be it's a quarterback award, and it tends to be very correlated to passing efficiency stats. And Patrick Mahomes is still the number one quarterback in passing efficiency or based on a lot of the stats that you could look at, and that Chiefs team still has a pretty good chance to finish as the number one seed or the number two seed in the AFC.
And I think there is a lot of heat for the Buffalo Bills, and like I understand it, I think they are the superior team. But I do think that Patrick Mahomes will probably be discounted in the MVP market as long as we see as long as we see Josh Allen continue to perform at a pretty high level.
But like I could see Patrick Mahomes basically stocking Josh Allen for a lot of the season and then all it takes is one bad Josh Allen performance in prime time and then all of a sudden, Patrick Mahomes looks like the clear MVP. So I do think that Patrick Mahomes right now relative to Josh Allen offers value.
This is Joe Flacco erasure, but I guess I'll let it stand. Jason, how about you, Is there a future that you have your eye on?
Yeah, well, I think Matt's right with with Mahomes. I've tended to bet a little bit on Mahomes every week of the season the last couple of years. You know, it's always kind of one of those things. He is so good on a regular basis, I think we take for granted how good he actually is. You know, we're just kind of immune to the greatness. After a while Mahomes is just top tier. He's one of the best quarterbacks I've ever seen, So yeah, you get value there. And the thing is with a lot of these these
awards markets. You know, in baseball, you know there's there's ten pictures at the beginning of the year you can make cases for. There's plenty of players to make arguments for for MVP or Rookie.
Of the Year.
In the NFL, the pool kind of thins itself out pretty quickly, and it's it's not like you have to really go down deep and say, oh, well, I found one hundred and one long shot. I found a two hundred and one long shot. There aren't any long shots. There's there's no price discovery, there's no you know, the market's pretty pretty shaped with the futures. So you know you're not getting value on Jalen Hurts at eight to one. You're not getting value on too at eighteen to one or whatever.
Probably right on my homes.
But I would if I was using a free bet, I'd want something a bigger odds. I'd look maybe at the Bengals, like I mentioned, to have the worst record. If you can get you know, ninety to now, sorry, fifty to one is what it was. You know, I always like using a free bet for something at big odds offensive Player of the Year. I mentioned Stefan Diggs.
I think getting getting exposure to the Bills. You know, you're not going to get a good price on them to win the AFC or the Super Bowl point, but offensive player of the Year on a guy like Diggs who's currently leading in the league and touchdown catches, you know you can get him like seven to one most touchdown catches as well. I think that's not a terrible bet with the amount of times he's going to be targeted in that offense. So you know, if you want
Bill's exposure, I think that's the way to go. Or Sean McDermott Coach of the Year, those are all sort of proxies for Bill's being best team in the league right now.
Yeah, I like the idea. I like the idea of Stefan Diggs as Offensive Player of the Year plus eight point fifty right now at bet mgm.
B.
Yeah, that's a pretty good number. I might be placing that right after this. I had him anytime touchdown score last night and now I so wish that those compounded How great would that be if you get paid out three times on a hat trick like that?
Well you could bet him to score three touchdowns.
You could, but I didn't really want to do that because I wasn't expecting him to be I wasn't expecting that amazing of her performance. But still I will to happily take my winnings there, and guys, I will happily say that it has been a great episode. Jason, thank you so much for coming on with us. Where can people find the great work you're doing around the internet?
Find me on Viison, you know mon Gill Show usually Wednesdays and Friday mornings, have a podcast comes out a couple a couple days a week. I do a podcast on Fridays with Pat Mao doing touchdown props for the weekend, so all.
Sorts of stuff. You can find me anywhere. Just follow me on Twitter basically.
And of course you can find him on Twitter. At Spreadipedia, you can find Matt at Matt f The Oracle, and I'm at TV at work, and don't forget to head on over to Betting Pros and remember sign up for BETMGM account today use the promo code betting Pros and you'll get a thousand dollars risk free bet.
Guys.
That is gonna do it for us here. Thank you again so much for being with us. We'll be back on Thursday to break down the weekend slate of NFL action, But for now, I'm Tom, He's Matt, and he's Jason, and let's cash some tickets, guys,