Week 3 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 57)

Hey, everybody, welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. With me, of course, is Matt Pearl. You can find us on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady and at Sports Talk Matt.

Matt. What's going on?

I am ready to go here. I feel a five and oh coming in the DraftKings. I like the slate. I'm hot and ready to go today.

All right, you are hot, that is true. I hate this slate. So this is gonna be very interesting as we talked through it. What did you do in the circle? By the way, how did you go in the circa.

Breaking two, three and two, five and five in both contests?

All right, so yeah, let's recap the where we are in the DK contest before we get in. We are five and five. We were two and three last week. We had the Eagles getting one and a half from the Rams. It was a terrible loss. We had the Vikings getting three and a half from the That was even worse laws And to be clear, that was the one that I really liked.

The cut.

We did hit on the cards, giving six and a half to Washington. We took two other games which were the Raiders getting five and a half from the Saints and the Cowboys laying four and a half to the Falcons. I told you on the show to make sure to follow us on Twitter again at Dan Harris Hadi at Sports Talk, Matt, because we you know, it's early in the week we want to talk about.

That was on Wednesday night.

By the way, We're going to be doing this on Thursday night from now and going forward, just so we can make sure we have as much information as possible.

I said to follow us because we might change. We did change.

We moved off those two bets, so we moved off to bets that we would have gone one and one on you know, not a huge deal, Matt. I mean, I think we both just sort of felt like, especially where you weren't in Vegas, it was just such a so much money. So all the public was just running in of course to back the Raiders in that first game.

Which what was so funny about that though, is that and this is where I need to be careful. Okay, that is true except for everywhere outside Nevada. Correct, And I didn't know that because I'm in my literally my Vegas bubble right right. So in the Vegas Bubble. It was like, oh my god, the line crashed in Vegas. It closed at three and a half. I couldn't believe it, and I was nervous. That freaked me out by that. But everywhere else it was eighty percent of the money

Yeah, no, no, no, I mean it doesn't matter. And I liked the Cowboys. But what's funny is that Matt and I talked, because Matt and I talked anyway, just about this stuff, and he actually he's in the circle with a partner and he was taking the other side of that game. He had the falcons, which you know, turned out to be correct. So I was like, I don't I don't feel that strong about it.

Let's think more about it. And so we moved off that.

We went to the Panthers getting nine and a half against the Bucks for one of them, which was close. I don't know, man, I mean, it very easily could have covered, but they didn't. So that's where that was. But we also moved What was the other game that we moved to that we hit on, Matt am I drawing a blank.

Now, the game we hit on was I'm blinking on it.

Oh, the Ravens the rankings. Yes, the Ravens laying seven a half. By the way, Matt is always just a Ravens. And Matt said, you said you talked to a bookmaker or somebody who said they would bet that all the way up to ten.

Correct.

Yep.

Yeah, So we were like, all right, that's that's that sounds good to me. And again laying on the Ravens here early, because the Ravens play to rip your heart out. They don't just play to you know, barely cover the spread, barely win. They played to rip your heart out. So again, really a distinction, that difference. We went too and three. We're five and five overall, so that's not good. But the good news, at least in the DraftKings contest is it was a bad week for everyone. Twenty four percent

We're on the Eagles.

As Matt and I talked about, you know, I messaged Matt on the live stream that Matt does.

Which you should be tuning into YouTube.

Dot com slash betting pros every Sunday morning Eastern eleven am to noon, so that's eight to nine. Where Matt is, he goes through the slate and I'm going to be popping in and I'll I'll write them questions anything like that. Forty percent we're on the Eagles and twenty one percent we're on the Jets against the Niners. You should not be on the Jets against anyone ever, So everybody took a back. Here we sit two hundred and forty third out of six hundred and ninety one, so that is

Week, until you're doing week two. To take it very weird, very weird to me, Like I'm only you got like a family emergency or something like, right, so weird weak to take off, especially after a five and oh start. Why not keep rolling? You're clearly seeing the board clearly, so let's go there. Deal.

There are two undefeated teams, but they're both five and out. They're not ten and out. Four teams have picked nine out of ten games correctly, that's it. Everybody else is eight and eight out of ten or worse. So we're still right in the mix there. But here's what we're gonna do for the show today. Usually what I do is I say, all right, man, let's go through the game. Do you give me your picks? You like, no, No, We're done with that. We're now going to go back

But that's really it.

Some of you as that have asked for player props, Matt, I don't know about you. Like where I'm at DraftKings and especially in any of the online books, they're just not really out points. Bet has these props that you can do that are, you know, over under fifty yards, rushing over under seventy five yards, rushing at massive odds.

I just think it's silly.

To do, so I'll plug the live stream. That's what the live streams for. Okay, correct live stream is going to be a props player prop, I'm gonna give you my picks on the Daily Juice so you can hear my plays on Sunday for the Daily Juice, and chances are, unless there's like a gigantic crazy injury or a massive line swing, there's not going to be much change to my Daily Juice plays on Sunday morning heading into the Sunday morning live stream. But the player props will one

Yeah, and don't forget to subscribe. And if you want to be notified when mac go's live, click the notification button that I'll let you know. But also I do props because I do player projections because of Fantasy's that's where I'm at. So I will message Matt. I'm not gonna be on, but I will give Matt some of my player props that I like based on my projection so we can relay them there.

All right, we've got to get into it.

We've been talking a lot, but before we do, I'm just gonna say I hope that Matt does not have a particularly strong lean on the Saints lanth three and a half to the Packers, because I do not. But if the line were instead, if either team scores a touchdown, you win one hundred dollars, then I would take that, because that's what it is. If you go to bettingpros dot com slash bet MGM through that link, if you bet a dollar on either team to win that game, you win one hundred dollars in free bets.

If either team.

Scores a touchdown either way, you win one hundred dollars in free bets. There is going to be a touchdown scored in that game. I can virtually guarantee it you will win. This available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, and West Virginia again betting pros dot Com slash bet MGM. Do not turn down free money, all right, Matt, start off? Don't say sans and backers to lead off off here?

Okay, I'll give you now.

Am I giving you my most confident play or just one that I like?

And you know what, man, the world is your oyster. Whatever you want, I'm gonna go with probably what I like the most to what I like the least. So if you want to start that way or do whatever you want, it doesn't all right.

To play that. I'm the most confident on The Patriots are going to kick the living daylights of the Raiders.

Okay, so we're just to be clear. We'll talk about that very briefly. But that was also my most confident pick. So we we're locking at it.

But they're going to absolutely wipe the field with the Raiders. And this is a classic spot for a young football team. Josh Jacobs was in that practice on Thursday. The Patriots are going to take away Darren Waller. Stefan Gilmour is furious after what happened with DK Metcalf eating his lunch. If the Raiders score more than fourteen points, I'm going to be shocked.

Oh all right, I'm not going to go that far.

But yeah, this is a very classic Belichick against the spread after a loss is miraculous.

I mean, he's, you know.

Obviously, if not the greatest coach of all time, one of so he's mad.

I mean you look at the picture. The picture says it, all right. He looks like God did, right.

I mean, he is not going to go to sleep until he fixes all these old things in a game.

By the way, that the Patriots were, you know, extremely.

Close to winning one play, so one play exactly, So I love that play too. I really think that this is something where you mentioned it. I think they're going to take away a waller because that's exactly what they do. I think they're going to stack the box and they're going to say, okay, go ahead, beat us over the top, Derek Carr, and again they're traveling east.

Don't forget that.

It's just it's got all the hallmarks of a Patriots beat down. So it is five and a half. It is the Matt paraltism. But you're throwing it out right now. I will say one thing. On betting pros dot com, we have consensus lines. The consensus line is.

Actually five, so it's going down.

Yeah. So why Why is that though?

Because the public is going to bet with their eyes off of Monday night football. Everyone everyone's flush with money. Everyone watched the Raiders beat the Saints. Oh my gosh. Bet MGM announced today that their number one liability for any team to win the Super Bowl are the Las Vegas Raiders. Okay, yeah, they are the new Cleveland Browns. Fade fade fade.

So if you look on bettingpros dot com, which gives you the consensus lines, it also gives you lines of the various sports book it's basically torn between five and five and a half. If you look, you know, we have various experts from around the industry who make picks. New England is being picked with the spread right now at minus five. So that's you know, at eighty three percent. Eighty three percent of experts are taking them. It's just

And my bookmakers could not have this game on the board. They take it down. Yeah, just chuck it up. You just say, okay, we lost, move on, okay, all right.

So here's a game that I like, which I here's here's where I get a little worried about.

This in the classic sort of way you try to think about gambling, which is the bylow sell high. Teams are you know, never as bad.

As they look sort of, you know the last week where they get absolutely blown out. Teams are never as good as they look when they're really winning. I thought that maybe with the Eagles last week with the Rams, and again that was the quote unquote sharp side. That's where the money came in. But for me, I'm gonna take the Titans, and you can let me know. The Titans minus two and a half in Minnesota. Now, if there were fans in Minnesota, I might be a little

I mean, it's not like the Titans.

Have looked that good. They barely squeaked by the Jaguars. They barely squeaked by the Broncos, although they should have won that game. They're probably gonna be without aj Brown here still. But Minnesota and that defense right now, I don't know if they're quite this bad that secondary, but I do know that as of right now, whether or not it's just because they're young and they're still getting their communication worked out right now, they're terrible. They are

The fact that this is under a field goal.

For me, if it was over a field goal, I would I would be concerned. It's a key number three. But at two and a half, that's probably the game other than the one game that I love is the Patriots. Other than that, that's the game that I like second most. So what do you think about that one?

I'm with you. It's on my list, and it is a It is a square play and it's going to be a number. Where it opened at one and a half, it's been bet to two and a half. I think by the time it get to kick off it maybe three, but being under three is a key. So here's the number that everyone's talking about. If you're on Twitter, you've

Yep.

So everyone's going to run around and say that they're gonna hamm and this is one of those games that fit into that narrative. Okay, so oh and two against the spread the Titans. The thing that the problem I've got with that is that trends don't mean really anything going into a game. It's all about matchups. It's not about trends. It's about how do teams match up against each other. The secondary for this Vikings team is just got awful and it's really really young, so you can't

So there is one book out there again and got the consensus lines to see the book. Fox bet is at three already, so I wouldn't be surprised if it moves there. And again our experts seventy five percent of them as well, are going with the Titans laying two and a half.

Again.

That's why I think this is what we talked about, man at the beginning of the season, where a lack of continuity, be young team that's inexperienced, you need These preseason games were pretty critical to working out a lot of these issues, and they just don't have it, and there's no way they're going to work it out after

It's like a security blanket a little bit.

I'm like, well, Vrabel's not going to go there, and they're not going to just be like, oh yeah, we're gonna look past this team. It's not gonna work that way. So all right, you want to lock that one in. Then both of those two.

All right, very good, good Titans.

Those two done, done. Go to your next one.

Chargers minus six and a half against the Carolina Panthers. On paper, Carol defensively is the worst defense in the NFL. Justin Herbert getting the start is a good thing for this team. I like Tyrod Taylor. Herbert is really really interesting. I think this kid is going to cause a ton of problems. And here's the big issue. Yes, no Derwin James is not there for the Chargers, but no run CMC. How are the Panthers going to score? I mean, it's all on Bridgewater now. And if you're gonna have him

All right, So I would say that I lean in that direction. I don't absolutely love it. I agree though, that the lack of CMC here, I'm surprised that this is under a touchdown.

I really am Herbert I agree.

Surprising to me because I talked pretty poorly about Herbert that, you know, just in terms of what his value would be in his rookie season. You think about really last week, the fact that he did not know he was starting until legitimately the coin toss is insane, and he played really, really we well, and they think he makes that offense better. My one worry here and I think that seems he makes that Panther's offense much better.

I think Mike Davis is a capable.

Fill and not anywhere close to it, but they do have a lot of capable wide receivers in DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson, and they're going to get Curtis Samuel Moore involved. My worry here is maybe it was just because they were trying to keep the ball out of Patrick mahomes hands. But you saw what Anthony Lynn really desperately wants to do, which is run the ball as much as he possibly can.

Kelly, Joshua Kelly had.

Twenty three carries last week and he's not even the primary ball handler. You know, they could have probably put that game away if they were a little more adventurous. My worry here is adventurous.

Okay, all right, Anthony Lynn had a backbone.

You mean I'm being diplomatic?

What grow up?

So I think.

That that is the way though, that he naturally wants to go. And yeah, it's under a touchdown, so that does serve make it a little easier. But I'm still not convinced that they'd be beyond the back door cover in this game, because I do think that even if they get ahead, they are the type of team that's gonna be like, oh, you know, we're just.

Gonna run the back Chargers defense. You're gonna pass and throw that ball forty times a game. That Charger defense is gonna eat him. Bridgewater is gonna be run for his life.

It is fair.

It is a line is not good and no node I don't again, this is another game like I don't know who scores more Panthers or Raiders, but neither one scores much.

All right, so what we're gonna put that one in pencil on the list. But not a guarantee. Not a guarantee you there is no way you're gonna like this next game. I'm just putting out. By the way, I'm gonna mention it. The contentus line is also six and a half, as it is in the DraftKings contest. Sixty percent of people of our experts are picking the Charges, so not overwhelming. Not that that is the be all end all at all. I mean, we're gonna pick what we want to pick, but that does favor your side.

You're not gonna like this, Matt.

I'm going to warn you right out, especially since I also like this team last week and then we got off it because it was Taraball. It's the Cowboys plus four and a half in CEA. Let me explain my reasoning. The Seahawks usually play close games. I mean, whether it's this year, whether it's not. I mean they could have very easily lost that game in a game where you know, Russell Wilson threw a million touchdown passes.

They let teams stay in the game. They don't.

They're not great at covering the spread historically. I know that doesn't matter, but their defense is not great. The Falcons, which has a good offense, was able to score pretty.

Much at will. The Patriots were able to score very.

Well and again Newton through were almost four hundred yards. I mean, Julian Edelman, I think is at a career high in yardage. That doesn't usually happen when your defense is particularly strong. Now Dallas isn't perfectly healthy. I think Tyron Smith sounds like he's gonna play. I'm not one hundred percent sure there. They are banged up on their defense, but the Seattle line doesn't get that much pressure like they just don't. And I think you saw last week.

So four and a half to me. This game without fans.

Again, with fans, different story to me because I think Seattle really loses that home field advantage with that. But without fans, this strikes me as a game that should be closer to a field goal. So I imagine you hate this game, but go ahead and give your thoughts.

Gritting my teeth. You have the whole board, you could pick any game you want, yep, And you want to fade Russ right now?

I mean, what is he?

What is he now? Seventy five percent completion percentage.

Russ is amazing Rus.

If you want to go into that team, you want to go up against that guy right now, with the way that they're throwing the football, with the way DK metcalf is playing against a team that got lit up by the Falcons last week.

Okay, so maybe we should explain my pick because it's obviously not coming through. I'm not picking the Cowboys to win.

I'm not going to lose by a field goal. But I think there's a good possibility that they just got the greatest luckiest break in the history of sports, and father time and everything else comes back your your pendulum swings the other way, and they got every lucky break you can imagine, including some team deciding dan Quinn again deciding to throw up all over himself.

You don't have to recover, try to recover onside kicks, man, I don't know why it's I mean.

I don't know why. I mean, you can't touch it till ten yards right there. When we're taught in Pop Warner, you can't touch that ball if you're the receiving team. So I mean, I don't know how or why you'd want to go near this team. It's a I mean, I credit the buy low factor with this, because this is buying low on the Cowboys. It's just my gosh, Russell Wilson.

All Right, the over under right now is fifty six, so that's an implied total for the Seahawks of what thirty.

I'm not debating. I'm not debating the point that points are going to be scored, if.

That's what I'm saying.

I'm doing, Russell. I'm not fading Russell Wilson. I know Russell Wilson is going to put up points. I'm more buying the Cowboys' ability to put up a ton of points to hang with this offense.

But it's fine. This is a team that we that you and I do together.

That's why we throw them out so we can move that one to the side, just like we did with the Giants against the Bears last week.

All Right, my friend, go ahead, start up with your next pick. Give it to me.

All right, I'm going back to the old Oh I'm two and l fad in this team. I'm fading again. Pittsburgh Steelers, according to Pro Football Focus, of a top five defense right now, Yep, they are crushing people they are young, they are talented, and they blitz as much as anybody in football. This offensive line for the Houston Texans is god awful. They're not going to be able to protect Sean Watson. Now that Shaun can run around, okay, and you can move, you can pick up first downs

Four, it's actually three and a half a month, love but even more unless I missed it.

Let me check what is I think that was four?

No, I don't know four circus, so check what I messaged you, because I'll tell I. Look up what it is in betting pros for right now for our consensus lines the Steelers, which for whatever reason I can't find at the moment, give me a second Steelers against the Texans.

Three and a half? Love it?

Yeah it's three and a half. Okay, good, so you love it even more? Okay, The consensus line is four in Bettingborough, so we're getting a little bit of a deal there. Yeah, that is on my list. I'm going to write it in because it was on my list and it was the next one that I was going to talk about.

So if you're good with it, I'm fine with it.

That's minus Pittsburgh minus three and a half to the Texans. I mean, I feel for the Texans a little bit, just because they got so much crap what they did on the off season and they roll out with this.

Schedule where they just have a horrific schedule.

It's the hardest schedule I can remember for the first three games of anybody in the NFL that Like, I mean, and I've been watching football for a really long time, I can't remember a time when you have to play against the two best teams in football and then go on the road to one of the more difficult places in a team in Pittsburgh. Google loves playing in Hinz Field.

Yep.

Ouch. I mean, this is just this is It's not even Bill O'Brien's fault. I mean, you want to hammer the guy, fine, but this oen three is almost like an automatic.

That's what I'm saying. Yeah.

Look, my one fear of it is that I legitimately despise backing Tomlin in these situations. Where you think Tomlin has knocked me out of so many survivor pools and coaching career, right, Like, this is the type of game we're gonna be like, Oh, you just forgot to show up then in this game.

But I do think Look, it.

Was my fourth, my fourth game, so I'm I'm totally with you there, and I'm good to put that in the contest. To be clear, our experts because I didn't give that for Dallas, because maybe you'll be surprised, are experts for Pittsburgh sixty one percent favor Pittsburgh over Houston's are not crazy? But in Dallas Seattle it's fifty three forty seven in favor of Seattle. So I'm not I'm not crazy, and I'm going to take that one.

We do.

By the way, Matt and I are two of the experts who put in our picks for betting pros. I'm taking the Cowboys at four and a half and then on Sunday we're going to be yelling at each other.

Oh no, but I don't mind it. I mean, it's just as as these five picks are so valuable, Like, I don't mind you picking in the game.

Well, this is why I'm telling you, I hate this slate, Matt, But you.

Can pick as many games as you want on that. So it's like if you if you go, you know, ten and one in the one game you get wrong happens to be this game. Well, I mean, that's kind of where we are. But so to me, it's got a lot to do with the fact that these five picks are so valuable that I just my gosh, going up against Russell Wilson just of the five. We have so many other games we could pick, and this is the game we're gonna pick.

Uh, Yeah, that's right.

I'm willing to go against Russell Wilson if I'm getting the four and a half points with the Cowboys, because I think they're gonna hang with them, so deal with it.

But it's fine, we're gonna leave it out.

You know what else We're gonna leave out the next one I like, which you are going to despise. I'm just putting this out there. I have more, which I know you would like, and so I could kind of pus your foot around this and be like, well, Mann will probably.

Like, don't take the Giants.

Oh oh you know, oh giants plus three and a half.

And I wouldn't bet this game with your money.

I mean you should. I will give you money, and I would.

I would if you gave me one hundred dollars. I wouldn't bet that with your money. In the hell of all the games? Why would you ever pick this game?

Name me.

Two starting offensive players for the forty nine ers that will be playing in this game.

I can't kill, right, kill, He'll probably play. He might play, but why would you Why would you play him? If you're the forty nine ers?

Why correct? Why would you play him?

Don't play?

You're right, you shouldn't play him, and you're not going to play anybody else of any consequence. And you're not gonna play Bosa or Thomas.

Well, you can't play Bosa, I mean, because that's what I'm saying.

You're not going to play the guys who are out for the season. Okay, You're not going to.

Play either of your starting running backs. You're not going to play your quarterback. You're going to just be throwing nothing out there.

And there's no Saquon Barkley for well.

I understand, but you know, we talked about this last week with Chicago. There was no Saquon Barkley in that game either, and they still covered because the Giants offense, that's.

Because of the offense is garbage for for the Bears. That's good. I mean it's you can't you can't go one to the other here.

Just oh no, I said when I was making this pick, and again I've already put this pick in. Actually, I'd like to see what it is right now. Hold on, I just I would like to see exactly what is. First of all, I want to see what the consensus line is. The consensus line is still three and a half, so that is where it is. I want to see have a curiosity. Okay, yeah, San Francisco sixty two to thirty eight percent. Not overwhelming, not like the Patriots, but

This is contrarian by contrarian, but by contrarian standards. I love this contrarian. This is the pupil that.

You've got to stay out east. Now, to be fair, they did not go back west. I don't think. I think they stayed somewhere on the East coast because they played the Jets and now.

They're playing the Giants.

I don't think they did the travel but it's back to back games on the East Coast and the time that really doesn't work. They have no one Matt and even their defense putting aside. But all right, first of all, I'll love you. Make it clear we're not going to take the game, of course, because we've got to fight. So I'm just saying it relaxed. I'mbout trying to talk to you again. As I said, I like one game this week and it was your number one pick, and

Oh I'm betting it. Yeah, I'm betting it.

I'm not I'm not going crazy with it, but I've made a bet on it. I'm willing to roll with that, so.

I wring ballins to drop forty on you.

It would if you know, it wouldn't be the worst bet I've ever made. I'll be out of it, all right, Go to your next one, Matt, What do you have?

All right?

So I've got two plays, and you can tell which one you want to talk about. I like in the both dogs Detroit plus five and a half are Chiefs plus three and a half? Which one do you want to talk about?

I actually want to talk about both of them. Start what you're gonna do with two for one? Which is fine because I've already I'm already at the Giants getting points from the forty nine ers range of my pick. So let's talk about all them because I'm interested in the Lions back because you and I kind of we go back and forth a little bit. You know, we talked about it a little bit before, and we both

So I'm way nervous about both these picks. And I was trying to find my fifth one because of my five pat Steelers, Titans Chargers, those are my four. The fifth one is when I was struggling. And so with the Lions, I think, I think car I think the Cardinals win, all right, Yeah, But my question is with backs against the wall, you have to win because or at least you have to play competitively because Matt Patricia

By the way, can we also talk about the fact that you were like, you're gonna learn something about me, Dan, There are certain paralisms.

I don't go five and a half and.

I don't minus five and a half.

I don't, but oh you don't take well take.

Points, Oh take five and a half points. It's minus five and a half.

I don't lay like we're taking the Patriots with your best bet.

Well that's different though, because again this my team is my pay as I told you, as I told you when I tweeted you this or to text you this to me, when it comes to my team and the Patriots, I don't care what that line was, got it. I'm taking the Patriots six, seven, nine, whatever. The Patriots are winning that game big in my mind.

Kind of like what I do with the Jets, except the opposite way.

Just take there anyway, taking five and a half, I know problem taking five and a half. It's live five and a half.

My fault. I misunderstood the prophism.

So the plus five with the Lions is intriguing. It's six right now, and it's climbing, so like the people are taking the number and they're pushing it up. So the Lions are definitely a live dog here in this game, but I feel like it might be a little bit too public. And then the contrarian of contrarian plays is Monday Night.

Okay, I do want to talk about that one actually, because I'm more intrigued by that one. And it's funny that you brought that up, because I was like, man, I don't even know if this one's gonna be worth bringing up. I'd rather bring up the Giants with the three and a half than saying the Chiefs taking the Ravens, which mattters just like the Ravens the Ravens, which you are correct. Here's my problem with this. First of all, I'm gonna give it on betting pros it is still

Now.

I was originally thinking, here's what I think.

I just think at this point that Vegas and sportsbooks, I don't think they're properly valuing the Cardinals yet. I don't think they've caught up to what the Cardinals actually are. And kudos to you, Matt, because you liked this team. We talked about it preseason. I did not. I did not think that this team was gonna be something that was going to make any noise.

But they look really really good.

Their defense looks a little better than expected, and I think they're better than bookmakers are giving them credit for it.

And I think that's going to become apparent pretty soon.

Well here's here, here's a little yeah, a little add on.

Yeah.

I haven't give this out in the Daily Juicy yet, but I'm gonna do it tonight. Go bet the Cardinals to win the NFC at plus twelve hundred. Yeah, if you look at the NFC, I'm not saying winning the Super Bowl now because you're dealing with the other side with the Raves and the Chiefs, but just to win the Super Bowl. If you look at the teams in the NFC and how the Cardinals match up with them, at plus twelve hundred, it's incredible odds, incredible value on

That's a great call.

Actually, yeah, I definitely people if the odds are twelve hundred ad and looked at it, they should do that. Conversely, as I was saying, the Lions just suck, like that's the bottom line. Their defense is young and injured. I know they're gonna Getkenny GALLIAI back, I don't care. This is just not the defense. I don't think they're gonna be able. I think it's going to be a monstrous day for every significant piece of the Arizona off Keny d we talked about it. We just had a daily

So I'm staying away from the lines.

But go to the Chiefs plus three and a half because I think this is going to wind up being somehow in the DK contest.

But go ahead.

So here's Chiefs plus three and a half. And I believe the hook here is a big deal to me. Yep, Kansas City doesn't lose these games as underdogs. They have not been a dog in a long time. I forget the actual stat, but it's been like two years since they've been an underdog. You have Patrick Mahomes playing in the AFC Super Bowl, because that's what this is. It's

Yeah, this is going in the contest match, okay, because it was on my list, and I was like, I'm gonna save this one for a little bit down because I think it's crazy. And I know you love the Ravens and you have been on you have been I mean you have been completely like oh no, no, no, no, this is it. I don't care what they're giving. That's seven and a half. I've got no problems taking that whatsoever. You've been uber confidence. So I was like, well, you're

I'm not sure necessarily that they're the best team.

I don't know whether or not they're better than the Ravens, but I do know if I'm getting more than a field goal, I'm good with it.

So for me right now, you correct me if I'm wrong. We're pretty much in agreement right now.

At the Pats laying five and a half against the Raiders, the Titans laying two and a half to Minnesota. Yep, the Steelers laying three and a half to the Text, the Chiefs getting three and a half to the Ravens. The only other, right, we're good on this, We're good, all right. For the other one that's under consideration is the Chargers laying six and alfter the Panthers. Now that is under consideration. Let's talk through some of these other games and let's just see whether or not we think

I mean, this is the problem with the Bears, because they win a game and everyone's going to be like, here we go and it's Tribbitsky. Oh he's playing great. Look out, give me a break. It's Tribitsky. Okay, it's the first start. I don't care it's one. It doesn't make a difference to me. In my mind. I am not looking at this as like an opportunity where we're saying, yes, this is smart. I'm going you know, I'm gonna fade as much as I can. I'm gonna fade the Bears. I can't go near that game.

All right, So for me, this would be one where I knew you wouldn't because I'm not a lunatic, but it would be one where if I'm forced to choose a side, it would be Chicago in this one. The consensus line, by the way, is down to three. There's only one three and a half that I see out there. So getting the hook in the DK contest is something

Well, the only our game that I'm on the fence on is the Rams at the Bills.

How do you feel about that one, because that is the what is the that is the Rams getting one and a half in Buffalo.

Yeah, So, by the way, I.

Do want to point out, just on that one, seventy seven percent of our experts are on Atlanta in that game. If I'm if I'm forced to choose a side, I'm taking Chicago at the three and a half. It's three again on our consensus. But go ahead, Mat, I'm sorry.

Yeah, no, I It's just like last week. Right, So last week the Eagles were laying one one and a half and it closed. I guess it opened with the Rams getting I guess the Rams were open as favorites and it flipped and the Eagles one up being favorites. Right, but the Rams are this is the tel game for me with LA. So if they can go back to the East Coast on back to back weeks and beat the Buffalo Bills, who, by the way, have played nobody. Okay, Miami and New York are not teams.

I mean I also, by the way, if you are new to this podcast, Matt despises the Buffalo Bills and talks them down all the time.

Yes, go ahead.

And I actually had somebody on that because I ripped them on the Daily Juice last night and people somebody email me said, what's your problem with Judge Allen? And so they got a big problem with Josh Allen can get the balls out of a barn. But see So my thing is this, So the Rams have played played a higher level of competition, and it goes back to my whole theory about winning on the road with the fact that you can have the communication with McVeigh and

Yeah, you know, the consensus now is two and a half for the lines and the Rams are getting fifty two percent of our bets, so it's pretty much split down the middle. Is not a game I'm gonna take. I agree, though, with everything that you're saying. I do think I like the Rams before the season started. I thought they were underrated. I think your point about no fans and McVeigh being able to talk to Goff your theory is great. I think that really does make a difference.

Yeah, once it gets late. I went to school there.

Once it gets late, it's insane, and the fans nuts are absolutely nuts. It's a tough place to play. But all that said, I am not quite as convinced that the Bills are as fake as you will forever think that they are. I get the Josh Allen, you know, misses plenty of throws, but I think I'm not willing to say I even like either side on this game.

For either want to win.

I feel like it's awesome.

So I think we're gonna wind up going with the Chargers laying six and a half to the Panthers because I do like it better than everything else. Let's very quickly just touch on the remaining games, yep, and just make sure we don't like it. Bengals getting five and a half from the Eagles.

I mean, the Eagles have to win. But how in the heck can you back Carson Wentz? Right now?

That's the problem.

I mean, how could you back him?

I this has everything.

Even if the Eagles come out and again they just lost Jalen Rager again, even if they come out and they're on fire and they're good, the Bengals are off essentially a mini bi because they played on Thursday. Burrow is going to be a backdoor cover machine this year. That's what, right, That's what you could just see. He just has no fear. He's just gonna run around, throw the ball. I could see the Eagles winning this game, and this is sort of the spot where you could

I agree you there.

Washington getting seven and a half from the Browns.

No, just no, on every level. No, No, I'm not going to trust the Browns. They're at home here. I'll bet the Browns here and I'll take the Browns. Yeah, but not in this contest. Not knowing that again, back door seven and a half is wide open for the Washington football team.

Yeah no, I completely agree. I would take the Browns, like if I'm forced to choose a side, but not in the contest. The Jets plus ten and a half in Indye.

Look, I have a long standing I'm not laying double digits in this contest. It's just not worth it. In my mind, ten and a half is too many points. I don't care who it is. It's the NFL. It's either a dog or a pass, and I'm not taking that team that's the dog.

And that spread is rising after the Jets announced we will be without any actual players this weekend. I mean they legitimately announced their whole offense, their offensive line, everything, It doesn't matter.

It's too many points.

If I'm forced to choose side, I'm taking the Cults because the Jets are truly abysmo. But I agree with you, it's not a line that I want to go near in this sort of contest.

Bucks playing six and a half in Denver, Boy, it's.

A cold weather city. With a real hot, warm weather team.

And is it cold in Denver right now?

Yeah? And Denver not cold cold, but it's colder than Tampa.

Sure.

And Tom Brady's record in Tampa in Denver is horrific, and I mean, like capital h horrific. So you know, Jeff Driscolls the quarterback though it doesn't matter, I don't care.

You know Courland Sutton's out right, yep, I did.

I don't care. I'm not I'm not taking Tom Brady on the road in that in that building.

Uh yeah, either way, I don't want that game whatsoever. I just like to play Devil's advocation. Yeah, I agree. I don't like the way the Bucks offense look right now.

I just don't. It just seems out of sort.

And again I talked about this on the Fantasy on one of our Fantasy podcasts.

Jeff Driscoll's going to throw that ball. He don't care. He definitely is at the point and be like, I'll throw a couple.

Home dogs in the NFL home dogs in the NFL. Not not with Brady's record in Denver nowhere.

And early on we talked about this with the Titans, even though we were very clearly on the right side of that game that Denver just has a way of either winning or covering, at least early in the season when they're home. So definitely not a place that I want to go to. And I mentioned it at the start Packers getting three and a half in New Orleans. I don't want to go near it.

I into my head, I'm taking the Saints because they're at home, and I think people are a little bit too high on the Packers right now.

And I think Devanta Adam is going to be out here, by the way, so I do think that that does make a difference.

I think he is.

There's no way to know that yet, but he misspracticed. I guess ow report that that it doesn't look real good for his availability. So you know, if that makes a difference to you find I still though, don't Michael Thomas is also going to be out.

Yeah, it's not it overfield goal. It's just it's.

I don't want to stay away game from me on either side. But I mean, if I had to play it, I'll take the Saints.

Correct.

That's where I'm okay, all right, So this was not that hard. You feel a lot better about this than I do. I feel good about two of the picks and the rest of them are like, okay, I lean that way, but I do you know.

What I really like, Matt.

I love that I have the Chiefs getting more than a field goal. That's what I'm going to watch that game, because there's never going to be a point.

We're gonna be like, well this this BET's dead, like million, right not with not with the Chiefs.

It could be twenty. They could be down twenty at halftime and you could be like, yep, we're so we're good, We're so.

Alive, all right.

So our five official picks, and again follow us on Twitter, Dan Harris eighty at sports Talk Matt and go to Matt's live stream Sunday mornings at eleven am Eastern YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. Subscribe, click the notification button. Matt will be talking about it and give player props. Again it's Thursday. We don't have all the player props, so we're not able to get them here, but we will give them. Matt will give them. I'll give him some of mine. But for our five picks as of

We both love that game. The Titans laying two and a half to the Vikings.

We like that game. The Steelers laying three and a half to the Texans. I think Matt loves it. I like it, Chiefs laying three and a half getting three and a half pardon me from the Ravens.

We both have talked ourselves very much into that game. And the Chargers laying six.

And a half to the Panthers. Matt likes that game. I am very much of I don't really like any other game in this slate. I lean that way, so I'm good to go with it.

All right. You feel good about.

That, Matt? I do. I like those five plays?

I do, all right?

Man?

All right, So this is great.

I love doing this podcast because it's just fun and Matt and I other than we send each other maybe a couple of minor leans early on to say, hey, I kind of like this game. We use this podcast to discuss it. So that's all right. Again, Go to bettingpros dot com because not all the odds. I tried to give the updated odds when I could. That shows you what the consensus lines are, and they're gonna move

It is awesome.

Actually most times I just make my picks from there because I can do it, but it tracks your bets. They just updated it a couple of weeks ago. It's really awesome. Again, just download it from the app store. It's great, all right. That is it for our Week three show was a good one. I enjoyed it. Remember check out the livestream on Sunday morning, YouTube dot com, slash Betting Pros at eleven. Matt will give you more information.

Yeah,