Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. With me, of course, is Matt Perrault, host of the Daily Juice podcast. You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. What's up, Matt? How's it going well?
And? Okay? Week one for US? Huh, three and two. I'm still smarting from the Titans game. Still hurting, but otherwise it's good talking football.
Yeah, it's good. And was three and two in the circa as well.
Two and three in the circa.
All right, all right, so let's touch briefly on what we did last week. And actually I realized, Matt, I don't know if you can do this in the circa, but you can see the breakdown of the pick percentage on draftings well from last week.
Yeah. What circa does is Circa gives you what's called the consensus odds that they come out before the before the games kick on Sunday, they'll they'll give you the number of picks and tell you what the most popular picks were. So that's often been a key here in Vegas that when the Westgate in the circa, consensus comes out, the you can fade or follow it. You know, either either you like it or you don't. But people have actually used that for betting information to help them as
to what side to be on for games. When the consensus comes out, when you've got quote unquote the handicappers picking one side of the other.
Okay, so that comes out though for this week, right, I mean for the upcoming week? Is that what you're saying.
Once, once everything is submitted on Saturday at three o'clock, then it comes out either Saturday night or Sunday morning. You finally before the game's kick, you know what the consensus is.
So do you know what the most heavily picked game was in the circa?
I do, but I forget what it was. Yeah, I can find out though.
I'm looking at the breakdown at DraftKings, and it's interesting the most picked game actually where the most picked team was the Panthers getting three and a half, which is probably why people didn't have, you know, such a great day because obviously the Raiders covered winning by four. But yeah, we're three and two, just to recount it before and one should be four and one. We hit on the Ravens lane eight and a half to the Browns. The Cardinals lank six and a half, getting six and a
half from the forty nine ers. That was a peralte special. The Saints laying three and a half to the Bucks, which we both really like we missed on. The Titans lank two and a half to the Broacos, the most improbable loss that could possibly be, which you called by the way you called like midway through the third he was just like, this is a two point loss, guaranteed
with what's how it's going to play out. And then the Dolphins also, I mean they you know, I don't feel bad about that one, but they obviously were very close to covering the six and a half point spread from the Patriots.
But so here are did just so you know, here are the most popular picks in the circa. Okay, the most popular pick was the Rams plus three against the Cowboys, yep. The second most popular was the Titans minus two and a half, which we clearly were on, the Cardinals plus six and a half, which we were on. Ye, the Bills at minus six and a half, which we also were on. In the Browns plus eight was a bad loser. That was a loser. Early we were on the other
side of that, we had the Ravens. It was eight in the circle, seven and a half in the DraftKings.
Yeah, that was split pretty evenly. On DraftKings. Thirteen percent took the Ravens, twelve percent took the Browns, as you called. By the way, with that Patriots, you know, obviously this contest is opened in New Hampshire, so you thought there'd be a lot of New England. Twenty two almost twenty three percent on the Patriots.
Like six and a half, so.
That one would have been big. But we'll talk about that. I might have some feelings on that game coming into it. But all right, are you ready to get into making our week two picks.
Yeah, I think we're in for a good week this week.
I like the card this week, all right, all right, I like a few games too. I hopefully imagines that. But first, before we get into it, we've got a great offer for you for new DraftKings users. Make a one dollar bet on any team to win either on Sunday or Monday, and you get an odds boost to one hundred to one if you bet a one dollar bet. Just go to bettingpros dot Com Slash DraftKings. Sign up, make a deposit, visit the sportsbook promos rewards page, pick
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New Jersey, Illinois, or West Virginia. Again. That's bettingpros dot Com Slash DraftKings. Now, a couple of things before we get into it, really more one thing. Here's the deal. This is Wednesday. It's Wednesday night. We're recording this because we want to perhaps talk about the Thursday night game. We want to do that every week. I'm not putting in the picks until late in the week, until Friday,
maybe Saturday or something like that. It is possible. I'm gonna put this out there, mat because you and I talked about it a little bit coming into the last week, about whether or not we would make the picks final, whether we would ever change, and we don't want to do that because we're representing this you guys. But follow us on Twitter at Dan Harris Adian at Sports Talk, Matt, because if we do have something comes up, maybe there's a massive injury that changes the way we feel about
That's why I'm gona wait a little bit again. You can wait till Sunday morning. We'll let you know on Twitter if we're making a different pick. But for now, we're gonna settle on our five picks. So Matt, why don't you start us off here? I like the way we did it last time, you letting me know what what picks you're kind of feeling right now, and it sounds like you're you're confident on a couple of them.
So I like a couple of them, a couple of our bounce back spots. And this is where I need to see what the number is going to be here, yep for the DraftKings, and we won't know that until tomorrow. But if the Panthers are catching ten points from Tampa, I I think the Panthers are gonna keep that game closer than the line suggests. I think Christian McCaffery Week one to Week two, I think we're gonna see a
pretty big jump up here in Joe Brady's offense. And I wasn't really all that in the rilled with Tampa's defense all that much, and watching the Saints, the Saints could have put up a lot more points than they did. Now they won and covered, but they could have put up more points. That offense wasn't doing very much. And I actually watching you know, Bridgewater and them putt up
thirty points on the Raiders. If it's ten, it's gonna be hard for me not to say, first take a double digit dog there with plus ten against Tampa.
First of all, what is it at the CIRCA? Has it locked yet?
It's not locked yet. It would come out tomorrow right now. DraftKings has it in nine and a half.
DraftKings is at nine and a half right now, right right.
Now, so I'm looking at DraftKings lines, so I'm guessing they might it may come out at nine and a half, but they might go to ten because they often try and try to anticipate where the line movement's going to go for these contests. So if it is gonna be ten, okay, I mean double digits. I know it's a double digit road dog, but double digits in the division. Brady's gonna throw picks. That's gonna happen. He's gonna turn the football over this year. And I wasn't thrilled with the running game.
I think Carolina can keep that game relatively close.
So I think Carolina is the right side of it, even a nine and a half. Frankly, I think Carolina is the right side of it. Don't forget Chris Godwin placed in the concussion protocol today. Yeah, probably not gonna play. I mean again, you never know with concussions, but when you only develop symptoms midweek, it seems really difficult to think that he's gonna be able to set up for that game. So that does hurt. But obviously they have other options like Scotty Miller and everything like that.
But Mike Evans has a bum hamstring too.
So but he played. I mean he played a lot of snaps, you know, and so who knows my legitimately, I think that's the right side. My one thing on it, my literally one thing The only thing gives me hesitation is that Brady was kind of embarrassed in that game, right, I mean, arians is calling him out. It was a big game, you know, everybody was watching. Didn't play particularly well.
Whether or not it was entirely his fault in look great. Certainly, the angry Tom Brady bounce back want to put you know, his foot on your throat. That worries me a little. However, with that said, I'm in complete agreement. I think the Panthers defense is terrible. I mean, they're not gonna be able to stop anybody, but I like their offense, and I do think that they're going to be able to
I mean, if you're talking double digits, I agree. I think that that is the right side of this game, that they're going to be able to keep it close. And I would even consider it at nine and a half, although it's obviously a lot less tempting. So let's put that one on the maybe list and let's get to your next one.
Next one is I am going to ride the Cardinals this year? Yep, I just Washington wins. So this number is below seven. I think if Washington lost that game to Philly, if they got beat seventeen three or something. This line's probably eight. Maybe it's eight and a half under seven six and a half. Cardinals at home home opener against Washington. Give me the Cardinals.
Man, you can't see me right now, but I'm writing it in in penn because I like it too. I look, I think it was great for Washington to wind up winning that game for Ron Rivera, you know what I mean, their first game, fantastic, really good. Washington is not a good football team. They they have a strong defensive line. They can get pressure, but there's a big difference between Carson Wentz in the second half holding the ball forever and a guy like Kyler Murray who's gonna be able
to avoid pressure. I liked a lot what I saw from the Cardinals, and kudos to you because you were on them. I was hesitant with that game either way, whichever way we went. We were debating that where the Bills against the Jets. We're gonna be right either way. But yeah, I really liked what I saw from them, certainly from Hopkins. I like their offense. I think their defense is you know, not nearly as bad, you know, and the you know, where the race Joseph.
I mean, I look at some guys are born to be coordinators. Okay, some guys aren't good head coaches. Vince Joseph was a disaster as a head coach. Yeah, but he in the second half made some tremendous adjustments. I watched every snap of that game. I just really impressed what they did in the second half against the Niners.
Yeah against that Yeah, no, I completely agree. I watched that game closely as well. Yeah, they played really really well. Impressed me. I was not on We talked about it on a preview on the NFC preview. I was not all that in on them before the season, but I don't know. I was very impressive. Why I saw so that was one of the games that I targeted to that is locked in in penn Arizona laying six and a half to Washington. All right, what else you have?
If he runs too, if Murray is allowed to run like he was in the second half, Yeah, boy, that's gonna be fun to watch.
I mean, and you need you need a mobile quarterback, by the way, I mean that is the one thing with the redsk with Washington. Pardon me caught myself, Yes, you need a mobile quarterback, and you've got Murray and again with Hopkins, he just changes that. I mean really, and that's all there was because Christian Kirk had a terrible get, like like a really abysmal game. It was literally just that and the running game, and they were able to do it. And again defensively, as you mentioned,
they were fairly impressive. So yeah, I'm all about that pick. It is written in Penn.
Go to your next one, Ravens against the Houston Texans. The Ravens are going to destroy early. You're not gonna without having time to practice. These dudes are gonna run the score up. I think on nearly everyone that they play. The Texans defense is not good, and I know their offense isn't bad. Okay, Watson is not bad, but they're missing Hopkins and showed, and I know the number. I don't love it at seven it I would prefer it six and a half.
I've got it's now seven and a half in DraftKings.
By the way, really, i'm staring at the app. Did turned the changed while we were talking.
I'm looking at seven and a half and I thought I looked early and it was.
I'm looking at seven right now, well, are you.
In the contest. It might be different things for the contest. And by the way, Matt, I'm not one hundred percent shory that these aren't the final lines. They may have set the lines already for the contest. And that's what I'm wondering about.
Did they send them out to you?
You know, I'm just I'm just logged in, I'm looking at.
Am I I'm looking at the app. On the app, I'm looking at it says seven on the app.
But are you in the contest?
No, I'm not.
That is the difference. I think. I think they may have set the contest line.
That's good, right, because they try to anticipate that makes sense, correct. What they try to do is guess where the line's gonna move exactly. So it's seven and a half in the.
Contract, correct. And that's why I was I was really surprised when you came out with that.
I was like, WHOA, all right, all right, I was looking at seven, So that's on me, so I a lot. All right, So let's know, I'm gonna switch here. What's what's the number for the Rams and the Eagles?
The Rams and the Eagles, I believe as the Eagles laying one and a half.
See they're plus one at DraftKings. Wow. So the Rams, the Rams are getting so they think Philly money is gonna come in heavy, which makes sense of where they are.
I do too, by the way, I mean, I think that's the right side of this game, as much as I'm a little scared because I think you made the great point, which I think is one hundred percent true that the whole no fans golf being able to hear McVeigh until the last possible second is really going to
make a difference. But this is the classic by low Sell high right, I mean, because the Cowboys easily could have won that game easily with you know, if you if you get rid of that you know, bogus offensive pass interference calling, Gallup easily could have won that game. So Eagles are one of the games that I'm kind of looking at. I'm nervous about it again, but they're obviously anticipating that money is going to come in on the Eagles here.
So look at oh and two starts in Philadelphia do not go over very well. Right.
So the by the way, Miles Sanders and I think Lane Johnson are both expected to play. So I think that's a big deal.
I I like the Eagles here, and if we're laying a point, okay, if we're catching a point, okay, it doesn't.
Really It's basically right, it doesn't make a difference, right.
So so I'm I'm going, I'm going. I think the Eagles will bounce back. I think they'll they'll play better. So I like that game. I like the Eagles to cover that, to cover that and basically pick them type of type of spread. Another game that that I like. And I'm curious to get your take on. So, and I don't know if I'm too close to this because of where I live. But the Raiders are at home catching six at DraftKings. What's the contest line?
Six and a half?
Beautiful yep, Raiders plus six and a half against the Saints.
No, no, no, no, oh no oh no, this is my bad five and a half. I thought it was six and a half when I checked five and a half.
Yeah, well, we can't play that because that's my rule. So I know I would love it five and a half. You're just I'm done. I I won't touch it. It's just it's just a number that I can't I can't do because I want to. I would say the right side here is the Raiders at six and a half, because I think it's probably a three to four point win for the Saints. Yeah, and I think the Vegas
Raiders will will keep the game close. And look it, Ruggs got hurt a little bit in the game in that last week, which was against Carolina, which a little bit concerning, so hopefully the knee is okay. He says he's fine.
Yeah, it sounds like he'll be a right and he came back.
I mean that was a big Jacobs is a monster. I love Waller. The offensive line is incredibly good, and they got some good news with Trent Brown who's supposed to be okay at right tackle, so that's big. The defense, look, Abram is a thumper at safety. They Farrell made the play of the game to stop the fullback dive to win the game. So that's a guy that people always ripped and said, hey, not a first round pick. Now a top four not top five pickers should say coming
out of Clemson. I love the pick. I mean, whoever you like, take the guy who cares he's supposed to be taken in the fifteenth round. Oh cares if you like him, take him. I don't care. If he works well for your system, who cares where he's supposed to be projected to be taken. And he played really well other than that, though, the linebacking issues you've got, you know, some corner issues. But I don't like that Saints offense
all that much. So I mean, I guess I could be talked into five and a half if you really really like it, but I'm a little bit scared of that number being five.
And a half, so I broke it down. I don't have the I won't play five and a half Matt perraultism that you like, I would play it. It's not one of my favorite games of the week, but I think that is the right side, even at five and a half. And again, don't forget Michael Thomas almost surely out and you know, I get that. You know it's a wide receiver. It's not the type of player who would necessarily move a line huge by himself. But seriously,
that offense goes through Breeze and Michael Thomas. I mean, obviously you have Kamara and they're gonna lean on the running game, which they they tried to do again against Tampa, even though again that's not really a defense that you can run against. But on that their number one wide receiver is now Emmanuel Sanders and their number two wide receiver is trey Quan Smith. That's just not an offense. And I get they have Darren Cook. It's not an
offense you expect to go crazy. And again the raiders off and is decent.
I mean, if it's gonna be more than deepest, I'm telling you it's gonna be more than decent. They're gonna put It all comes down to Derek Carr, who made a couple of unbelievable throws against Carolina. If he plays, if he steps up and has you know, a twenty sixteen Derek Carr version, that offense is gonna be a ton of fun and they're gonna put up points.
All right. So that was one where I was I had like the I like, I maybe like and I sort of kind of a little bit like that was sort of the sort of kind of little bit like, So I'm on the let's put that one on the on the side for now.
When anything else, Yeah, which game do you like better? Which which road favor do you like better forty nine Ers at the Jets or Buffalo Bills of Dolphins.
Okay, I'll be honest. I neither one of those games is on my list. And here's my problem with the forty nine ers. I they should absolutely destroy the Jets. We talked about that. You saw now what I know, which is the Jets are like a really, really awful football team and now they have no Levon Belt. Even Jameson Crowder was limited with a knee injury in practice this week. But I don't think George Kittle is gonna play. You know, he's gonna mispractice all week and then maybe playing.
If you're the forty nine ers, why in the world are you gonna waste George Kittle against that team? You know, obviously you know the wide receivers. You know, it sounds like Brandon Ayuka is gonna play, which is good. But again that's like, okay, this is who we're relying on. And the one thing that the Jets do kind of well, and you kind of saw it last week against the Bills. They defend the run pretty well, like it's not that bad. At the same time, it's seven and a half. By
the way, I don't know what line ups. What were you looking at?
Seven?
Yeah, no, it's seven and a half. That's given me a lot of Now, even then, I still think they'd probably cover it. As for the Bills against Miami, that's a five and a half, by the way, So that's just to be clear, that's not a Matte Perrault.
I was asking to see which one you would like. I preferred seven. I prefer the forty nine ers, But seven and a half I don't like it.
I don't Yeah, I mean right, So if you're making me choose a game there, like, I'd probably go Buffalo. But I can certainly see a backdoor cover by FITZI, you know, basically what he could have done what he always does. Yeah. Well, all right, So if we are talking about breaking the Matt paratisms, which I don't think we're going to, but I want to know about your feelings on tomorrow's game, the Bengals against five and a halfway five and a half?
Oh my mm hmm. Okay, that's interesting. It's a five and a half point number.
Why you're seeing that? What six?
Yeah?
Yeah, mm hmm.
So here's the thing about Thursday games, and you can tell me how you feel about how do you feel about rookies making their first start on the road in primetime.
I mean, I don't have any data off the top of my head, but I don't love it, Like it doesn't get me excited about it.
Because Joe Burrow played really well. At the end of the game, aj Green pushes off and if it wasn't for that flag, they win the game and they're one
to oh and they beat the Chargers. In this line might be a little bit different than it is, yep, because if he plays well, I mean, this is a monster game for Baker Man, this is this is I don't want to call it make or break for Baker, but in primetime on Thursday night, after getting your doors blown off by the Ravens, if you open up zero and two with a couple of awful performances, so Fantasy's gonna pull out every darn trick that he's got. And this is your in state rival, Yep, you gotta win
this game. If you're the clean Browns, you have no choice. So I don't hate the five and a half because I think it's probably gonna be a seven point victory.
Yep, all right, I'm gonna put that one on the maybe list. I put that one as a game that I like this week, but it was very much of a well, we can't do.
It's because the public's gonna, by the way, the public's gonna be all over the Bengals.
Yes, exactly right, and that's that makes me even more happy to be on the Browns.
Right.
Nobody wants. This is a bounced back spot. I think for the Browns here. I mean, again, they look terrible, but I'm kind of like, I give any team that looks terrible a little bit of a pass against the Ravens because they're the Ravens and they're elite on both sides of the ball.
And win week one to week two. Adjustments are dramatic, I mean correctly.
And again that part of it is, you know, I don't want to It's a new head coach, it's the opening week, you haven't had any preseason games. I mean, for that, with everything they've got in Cleveland, like I really want to like, I think both running backs are gonna be able to run all over. I think they're going to make a point to make Beckham happy here, and I think that he's gonna get on the scoreboards out for me, I would be willing to go this way, but let's put that on the side. We've got a
couple of games. Do you have any others? And do you want me to start naming some games that I like?
Go ahead and name some games, because those are the ones that jumped out, except we I definitely want to talk a little bit about what's going on between the Colts and the Vikings.
But go ahead, Oh well, that's that's one of the things I want to talk about. But before we get there, and the fact that you don't bring this up makes me think you probably don't like it. But the Pats going to Seattle.
Oh not even I don't want to do you don't.
Like no, no, okay.
Because the Patriots, the Patriots are going to play ball control yep, and Russell Wilson's gonna try to put points up. This is this is one of those games for the Patriots that Belichick needs to pull a rabbit out. He always can. He can do that, right, And look, their secondary is really talented in Stephan Gilmour. I mean you you want to challenge that dude, I mean's he's a he's approaching like Reeva's Island type stuff. Yeah, if you throw on this guy, he's gonna he's gonna pick it off.
And he did it last week. So I just wonder who he winds up covering for Seattle.
He's gonna cover Metcalf. Man, he's gonna cover Metcap He's gonna cover Metcalf. Locket's gonna play in the slot and then we'll see what happens. And I think he's gonna be able to take away Metcalf. Now, look, Seattle's gonna score. But yeah, first of all, I think what's the what do you think the spread is? By the way, just to be clear, I don't know what it is three and a half or four. It's three and a half. It's three and a half. Okay, so we had to correct then that that hook.
The hook worries me a little bit just because it's the last second. This is such a big difference between three and a half and three. But so you like the Patriots here?
Yeah, I actually like the Patriots Again. Part of it is remember that home field advantage gone gone? Like there, you know what I mean that the pumping in the crowd noise isn't gonna be the same as having that crazy stadium going absolutely nuts. I think you've got Belichick. By the way, this is completely anecdy total and I'll probably catch a little flak for this, but Belichick's mother died obviously today. I do feel like you've got a little bit of the rally around coach and show them
what we can do. And they looked good, Like I realized that they you know, Cam look like Cam. You know, they were willing to do that. I think they can open it up more if they need to. I see this as a game that plays out really, really close. I think the Falcons defense is just terrible and they were just able to do whatever they wanted against them. I think the Pats are going to be able to keep this close. And if I'm getting this hook at a half point, I would be willing to roll with
the Patriots. But that's me.
But I'll get I put it in the maybe category, but I will I will say this, if we get this pick wrong and we start owing to involving Patriot games, I'm not I'm not gonna be happy with ourselves.
I think that's fair.
That's that can make me really frustrated to get two picts wrong on my team.
I think that's fair. Go to the Vikings. Cults, then let's talk about that one, because.
I mean, both these teams are on and one and the Vikings look like crap. I mean it was, I mean that off it's looked horrendous, and you have the home opener. Both these teams play in a dome. But Philip Rivers has got to play better. He can't be throwing interceptions and look in mac now being out out for a while really hurts the run. Yeah he's done, he's done. But but I look, that's why they went and mean spent draft capital to go in and bring
in running backs. I I just think this is a spot where I don't know how good that Vikings defense is. I mean culture at home, laying just three, right, I've.
Got at three and a half. I see. I like the Vikings.
Okay, maybe three and.
A half because again, I do think even look in that game, the Vikings look terrible. Their defense is terrible, or at least their past defense was terrible. But again, it's a lot of new guys, some young guys, like you have this first game, there's gonna be communication issues and all that sort of stuff, and you've got one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, probably pissed off and wanting to make a stable.
Not probably, it's gonna look like that was real. Was the first round pick to draft my successor watch what I can do here.
So Rivers is a guy who I actually thought was not done. He looked terrible. I mean, he just looked terrible. I like their receivers. I like Uy Hilton, I really like Paris Campbell. Think Pittman Junior is going to be a star. Their defense just kind of disappointed given what Jacksonville was able to do. I thought they'd be a little better. So for me, this is a game that I think the Vikings can keep it close. And again
they were bad offensively in the beginning. Once they opened it up, obviously, you know, maybe the Packers took their foot off the gas. Again. Another game where if I'm getting the hook, I kind of like the Vikings there. I get that they're home but homefield enough too.
I like three and a half. And look, that was the most expensive game of the weekend for the Circus Survivor, where it's a one thousand dollars entry for a one million dollar first place prize. There were there's I think thirteen hundred entries in four hundred and twenty five went out Week one bolts lost.
Yeah, and again that was the game that they Yeah, again, that was a game that they should have easily won. And then and they just kind of, you know, they blew it all right. So those are really I mean, we've talked about. There's one other game. I kind of like, I can't imagine you're gonna like this game, Matt. Also it falls into the Matt Perrault, Please don't bet this spread ism. But it's the Cowboys at home against the Falcons. It's four and a half. So that's already I thought.
You don't like I thought, if you're four and a half or five and a half.
No, no, no, no, four and a half of the mind, five and a half. Five and a half is the number that I built that I from the book makers I've always I've talked to. Five and a half is the number that they hang with. They just don't know what's going to happen. They think it's going to be between three and seven, so they just go five and a half and it's like a thrower at the wall thing.
And more often than not, the hook or something fluky happens and you get beat by a last second field goal or something along those lines.
Well, this is a game where I don't I don't love it. It was sort of the last on my list, but it's a game where Look, the Cowboys are I think a better team than they showed against the Rams, and I think the Falcons are just bad.
How many how many fans are going to be there?
Uh, yeah, don't know. I don't know the exact limit.
I know the number. It's the biggest number in the NFL for fans, And I mean what.
You worry about, obviously is that the Falcons offense is good and they could easily sort of you know, have the back door cover at the end. But I do think that this could be a game you lost Game one. You've got an explosive offense. Now they've lost Laton vander Esh that's a big loss of their defense. But yeah, it does strike me as a game where they're going to come out and just be like, Okay, good luck stopping Cooper, who looked great, by the way, and you
know he matched up with Ramsey, he looked great. You've obviously got ceedee Lamb. I think it's gonna be a big game for him. And you've got Michael Gallup, you lost Blake Jarwin. That actually is a loss. But between them and Zeke, I don't know, man, I could see them just blowing the doors, you know, out and crushing in this game.
So yeah, they're one of the largest money line I mean, if you look at just straight money lines, or I mean minus two hundred isn't really indicative of a spread that's thirteen four and six. So yeah, the books are clearly expecting my the Cowboys to win here. It's just a matter of how many points are they gonna win by. And I'm with you on the Falcons. I mean I was really I was really shocked at how bad their
defense looked. And if they just play ball control and run the ball down their throat and don't give the ball to the Falcons, I think they can cover that line pretty easily.
Yeah.
Yeah, so I like the Cowboys, all right, Yeah, I can ride the Cowboys.
All right, this is disgusting, but we'll put in then for pick number two, the Cowboys laying four and a half to the Falcons. So that's really where I came down. I liked the Eagles laying one and a half to the Rams. I like the Raiders maybe getting five and a half against the Saints, the Browns laying the five and a half on Thursday Night Football to the Bengals, the Pats getting the hook in Seattle with three and a half, and I like the Vikings getting the hook
three and a half with the Cults. Are there any other games that you're looking at? I can run down the remaining games and tell you the spreads, and you can let me know whether or not anywhere well.
I mean I think you we talked about almost all them, Chiefs, Chargers. I want no part of can't go there completely great, I want no part of that game because it's just the line was what's the line in the contest?
I think it's eight and a half.
And a half? Yeah, Giants Bears is interesting, it's five and a half. Now what the contest lines?
What five and a half?
Okay, here's my problem with the Bears. They've had they have had a tumultuous week. We don't know if Robinson wants to be there or not. He talked to the medias and everything. It's fine. I don't know. I can't standre Bitskilo. He played pretty well. I think I couldn't figure out the Lions just stink or the Bears better than we think. I don't really know the answer to
that question yet. And then the Giants, I don't know what the hell was going on in that game man, watching that offense, it was like they were running in slow motion. Of all the games I watched, and I watched them all, the one game that stood out the most for not having fans that felt like a dead environment was the Giants game. It was really weird, right, it didn't It didn't feel like the other the other stadiums felt like there was I don't know more going on.
They did. They did more to feel like the atmosphere or they piped. They piped in louder crowd noise or something. But it just felt like watching the first Monday Night game, I was like, this is a really bad, bad atmosphere. It was boring. So I don't know what the Bears will look like. It's a soldier field. I don't know how they're gonna be. But it's a road trip. It's Danny Dimes. But Saquon Barkley just could not run in that game. Yeah, and if he gets free in this one.
The Bear's defense is very good, like we know, but I don't know. I mean, I prefer the under in that game more than the side, So.
I don't love the side on that one. I don't have a good feeling for it because I think that the Giants could easily beat the Bears outright. You know, the Bears are terrible for three quarters in that game where they exploded, But I don't know. I don't have a great.
So that's why, yeah, I would pass on. I would pass on that game. And then that's all of them, right.
Packers laying six and a half to the Lions.
Oh, okay, I don't love it, but it's a divisional game. If I had to pick a side, I'll take the Lions plus.
Me too, me too. I don't think I'm willing to go there. Steelers laying seven and a half to the Broncos.
That's such a tough number.
That's a tough number.
Because the Broncos are without Philip Linda. I don't think he's gonna play now.
Lindsay's gone and we don't know about.
Something, and then Sutton is a question mark, and then I don't think Drew Lock's very good at all me neither, dude that I was impressed. I was impressed with that Steelers defense.
Oh, it's legit. I mean it was legit last year when they went eight to eight with the poo poop bladder of quarterbacks.
So so like, I don't know of what luck going on the road to Pittsburgh to take on that defense. I mean, I I don't know. Probably, I mean I like the Steelers there, I don't know. Seven and a half.
Yeah, over the touchdown scares me a little little bit, a little bit. Again, they're setting these lines to just basically be like, if you want this, you got to earn it. Basically is where they're at. And I think that might have been it. Yeah, that's it. So Oh the Titans eight and a half to the Jaguars.
Hate that number.
Yeah, I mean, I don't know how they can ever kick a field goal.
Again, that's too high. If it was under seven, maybe I'd think about it, but not not at that, not eight and a half.
It's too so let's give the caveat by the way. Also, another game which I didn't list there was if the Panthers. The Panthers are nine and a half, So if you if you're like I want it, if it gets to ten. I'm not one hundred percent sure whether or not these are the final lines. My guesses they are.
Yeah, they are because Wednesday, because that's what Johnny Vella told me, that they put their lines up on Wednesday.
And I need to make a pick right now and lock it in.
Then yes, yeah, and the lines aren't moving.
So nine and a half, which is a lot, but it is something where I'm not totally opposed to that, even below the ten, because I think that is the right side. Betting against Brady after kind of an embarrassing loss scares the Jesus out of me. But at the same time, again, they're gonna be almost certainly down Godwin. I don't really know how good they necessarily are, and Brady didn't look that great, so I might be willing to roll with that. But it's not a game that I.
Love, so okay, so let's cross that one off.
Okay. I mean, if we're down to only games I love, then we're done. I mean, I think I've got well, I've got Arizona like six and a half to Washington, So you want to again go through the ones that.
Are well, yeah, let's do the ones that that you just just list the ones that you love here.
Okay, So the games that we're there are only two games that I love, which we're we're taking basically, and really I don't even love the second one. It's Arizona laying six and a half to Washington, which we know that's locked in.
The Cowboy be by the way, that will be a consensus top five pick.
Yeah, Cowboys laying four and a half to the Falcons. We've decided we're going to go with.
I like that.
After that, it's it's up for debate. Man. Like I kind of like the Browns laying the five and a half on Thursday Night Football. I know it's the dead number, but that's probably a game that I like. I kind of like the Vikings getting the three and a half from the Colts because I do think that game is going to ultimately come down because I think you saw it, by the way, with the Colts, is that there's no
killer instinct, you know, on sort of the team. They could have put that game away, and maybe that means that they will. But I do think it's the type of thing where if Cousin's a good quarterback. They let him throw, he's going to you know, move the ball like he did at the end of the game against the Packers. So that's one I kind of like. I'd be okay with the Raiders at five and a half. I'd like it better at six, but i'd be okay
with that. And we're probably not going to do the Pats getting the three and a half, so we don't. I'd also, by the way, we haven't talked about it too much since the beginning, but the Eagles, you know, basically pick them. Oh wait, I'm sorry, Matt, I think I told you the spread wrong, and so we're probably gonna go with this. I think I might have said that the Eagles are laying one and a half. Yes they are not. They're kind so they are catching when it happened what you said?
Bad?
Yeah, done right? Take it all right? My bad, I'm sorry. I was looking at it very quickly on the way.
It's good, all right, So that's it.
We'll lack the one the Eagles.
There's three, so Arizona, Dallas and Philly are a three for sure.
So you know you really want to be relying on on the Cowboys and the Eagles all the time. That's really what you want? Okay, what else you got? What do you think?
So we have four plays that we're talking about now. We have Browns, Vikings, Raiders, and Pats.
Correct.
So Raiders are at home, which this is their new.
Stadium Monday Night Football, by the way, Monday.
Night Football, prime time. I mean, this is a huge moment in this city's history. All right, there is insane amounts of action. The books here are not going to take a single Saints bet the entire weekend. It's going to be all Raider money. So by the time the game goes off, it may be like a three and a half four point line, So there's gonna be a big movement in this game. Five and a half is really good value. I prefer six obviously, but five and
a half is. It's good value simply because it gets over the field goal and that last that can come from behind, you know last, you know, one point three to two points up a situation. So I like the Raiders because of history and just given what this this market. They I'm not saying hockey and football are comparable, they're not. But without Michael Thomas, I let's go Raiders supposed five and.
A half done, And I was writing in it and as you were talking, because I heard I heard you getting there. And again, yeah, it's just not really a spot that I think is great for the Saints. I don't really see them going crazy here, So all right, I'm willing to take those point. So now we're looking at the Vikings plus three and a half, the Pats plus three and a half, or the Browns minus five and a half, unless you want to go with the Panthers getting nine and a half.
No, let's let's avoid the potential blowout there, okay, And and Brady, you know, going back to Brady form and all of a sudden, Scooter becomes a household name.
All right, So.
I'm a little afraid of that, just given how I mean, Ruggs was opened so much right now that Panthers secondary, so I'm a little bit concerned about.
Oh, it's terrible, it's legitimately and the run defense is terrible too, so they could do whatever they want.
A little concerned about that. So, I mean, you know, it's catching the biggest line, I mean, and you know the Tampa's going to run the score up because of what happened.
They want to show off their oh yes, all.
Their ticket holders, everybody else who are gonna be watching, saying look how great we are spent. You spent all this money. You can't watch us in person, but we're gonna be awesome. So hold on, Brady's a two year contract.
Yeah all right.
So if I had to go with one of those three, I probably would take the Vikings plus three and a half.
That's fine, that's fine. That's a game that I liked that. You know, again, this is something where I don't know who's gonna win game, but I really will be surprised if the Colts are able to win it by more than a field goal. I like the Colts a lot. I think Taylor is better than that's it's you know, better that he's going to be getting all the carries now.
But again, I think I give the Vikings a little bit of a pass against the pissed off Rogers and in their first game with that secondary trying to really learn what they're doing and half communication, they'll get it ironed out. Their offense is good. They're going to be able to move the ball pretty well. On the Colts. I just see this as a close game, and if I'm getting the extra half a point there to go beyond the field goal, I'll take that. So you know that I liked.
I like the hook there. I just have a very strong adversion to Thursday night football games in these In these contests, I think the Browns may win and cover. I think that's very possible. I think I'll probably bet that during on the Daily Juice, I probably have it for a play. But I'm concerned just because it's the first Thursday night, you know, after a game for these teams, so like we don't you know, there's that whole trend
of ugly football on Thursday. And maybe Joe Burrow is the real thing, and maybe Baker Mayfield is gonna stink in this offense and Stefansy's gonna have a lot of heat. I mean, look at what happened to the coaches the last two years. So I'm a little concern on that. And then the Patriots, I love the three and a half. The hook is a big deal there. I'm just I if their defense gives up more than twenty four points, I don't know if they can keep that game close.
I don't know. I mean I think they can only score. They want to play games like seventeen, fourteen, twenty one, seventeen type and if they get loose with a couple of you know, a turnover or an extra or a special team score or something, it just worries me that in Seattle, if it rains, I like the Patriots, I'll watch the game. I may bet it for fun, But in the contest with how valuable these picks are, I'm more comfortable with the Vikings.
All right, So for now we're gonna lock in Arizona link six and a half to Washington. The Cowboys lank four and a half to the Falcons, the Eagles lan get itching getting one and a half points from the Rams, the Raiders getting five and a half points from the Saints, and the Vikings getting three and a half points from the Cults. I like them, Matt. I feel good about this. Now. Look, I'm going to say this again. I do not enter these picks until at least Friday, maybe Saturday, once I
get the final practice reports. I don't want something coming out to sort of, you know, go crazy. Follow us on Twitter at Dan Harris ady at Sports Talk Matt. We will post the picks. We will talk about if we're going to be changing anything, so we don't need you guys astray, But for now, that's it. Tied for seventy sixth place, Matt. We're getting right up there at six hundred ninety people or whatever is in it, so we're doing okay. Should have been better, should have been
four and one with the stinking Titans. But it's your kicker, man, What can I say about that? All right?
That's keschy anyway.
All right, that's it, Matt. Make sure I assume you'll post your circup picks at some point.
Yep, and our Daily Juice picks as well. So what picks on Thursday and on Sunday morning?
Nice nuggets? Bet there, man, I thank you, but that one which is something? All right? Everybody subscribed to Daily Juice. It's a really, really great listen. Matt gives a daily podcast every morning fifteen minutes. We're going to be back next week. We'll break down our week three picks and we'll recap what went right, hopefully everything, and what went wrong, hopefully nothing, and we will talk to you then