It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.
Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Bros. Podcast or Week eighteen of the NFL season, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host Dan Harris. With me, it's Joe Pizza Pa. We are here to give our three best bets for Week eighteen of the NFL season. Joe, how does this snowy Friday morning find you?
It finds me doing this show instead of going outside and shoveling, that's for sure. I was like, Dan, do you want to you want to do a few more podcasts today? Maybe stick around for a few hours, because the longer we talk here, the longer I get to stay inside and warm and not outside the freezing cold trying to shovel snow.
So I'm all for this.
In fact, this could be a three hour podcast for all I care today.
Do you not have a snowblower? Joe?
I do here?
Okay, all right, you asked.
Yeah, it's week eighteen, man, whatever.
So I have the longest driveway in creation, right, so I should have one of those ridiculous giant sized snowblows, and I don't. I have like an electric one, which is annoying because it's got the cords and.
It works fun.
Yeah, but the problem is my driveway so long that I have more extension cords. It almost looks like clerker's while trying to light his Christmas tree or Christmas house. I should say, so, yeah, it's it's a weird situation. Last year there was so much snow that I had to borrow my neighbors who's got the big bad boy. I think it'll be okay, I'm gonna wait it out. Let the sun kind of take care of some stuff. But overall, yes, I do. And it's of course called a snow joe because a right.
So, I think many people have driveway envy for us because our driveway is not particularly long, unlike a lot of driveways in my neighborhood. And when we moved here, my father in law, who's an incredibly handy individual. I'm not handy, bought us a snowblower, and bought us a snowblower that is basically like, if it snows four feet, this will cut right through it. So's it's my favorite
thing in the world. I love it. I have to go snowblowing a little bit, but I'm actually looking forward to it because it's like the one thing that makes me, look what I've done. I've heared this entire thing zen.
About it right where it is like, you know, like some people like to rake the sand, This snow blowing, I feel like is the same thing, and you get to choose which direction you're gonna blow it in.
It's a whole thing.
I like it.
I gotta say it, all right, I like it, So we'll do that afterwards. All right, a couple of brief announcements. First of all, this is my last podcast. Actually, this is my last podcast total for if you follow us on Fantasy Pros, if you follow us on Betting Pros both, it's my last podcast. One last live stream for me on Sunday morning, week eighteen with Matt Parout like we do every single Sunday morning. But this is it my
last podcast. I love the company. I'm leaving for a completely unrelated opportunity outside of the field of sports betting and fantasy. So this is the last time you're gonna hear my voice, which I know for certain of you is very exciting because certain of you are desperate to gear it to me and Joe is certainly one of them as well. Terrible Terrible in the meantime to finish
stop in the playoffs and everything like that. Joe will be the host of the show and they'll have on guests, and Joe's much better and more popular than I am. So there you go. I've enjoyed I've enjoyed it. I've enjoyed doing the show very much this season. I love all our listeners and I wish you the best of luck. I will try to send you out here on a high note. So we're gonna give our three best bets here of the of the weekend for the NFL's week eighteen.
So it's crazy and a lot of this stuff will change, but let's recap last week what we did. We had on our good friend Scott Bogman. Of course, he went one and two again. I think that's the second time Bogmin's gone one and two. He did hit on the over forty two and a half with Seattle in Detroit, but he missed on everything about the Rams Ravens game. He missed on the Rams lank three and a half, and he missed on over forty six and a half,
which I also liked. I went too and one I hit on the Steelers getting three and a half from the Browns, which obviously closed that like the Steelers laying three or whatever, and the Titans laying three and a half to the Dolphins. Bogman also didn't like, so screw that guy. I missed though, on the Chargers and the Broncos under forty five and a half. They came in at forty seven. So I'm now one game over five hundred and twenty six and twenty five on the year.
We will try to finish this off on a high note. But Joe, for the last time, you are the guest of this show, not the host of this show. Therefore, I will allow you to make the first selection. Please show give me your favorite bet for Week eighteen of the NFL season.
Well, I know sometimes when we see giant numbers it scares people off, but it's Week eighteen. Defenses are quitting everywhere. Some teams are already quit. And I think one of the teams that's just completely done toast. I think they're not gonna see Trevor Lawrence in the second half of
this football game. It's the Jacksonville Jaguars and they're going against Jonathan Taylor and the Colts, And I'm putting Jonathan Taylor ahead of the Colts because I don't think he's gonna get the two hundred and sixty six yards he needs.
But I think he's gonna die trying. I really do.
And I think that the more you have the to him, the more that eats up clock and the more difficult it is for garbage time or any these other things to catch up. I just feel like we're talking about a whole different class of football team, just kind of like what you saw last week where the Patriots just to completely embarrass them. There's no self respect thing. It's not like they all go back go we got to
finish the season the highoue. No, all these guys already know the new regime is coming in and this was their chance to be evaluated the last couple of weeks. And let me tell you, I'm sure a lot of them are going to be jettisons when you have a new staff coming in. Lawrence will be there a few other key pieces, but it's gonna be a big turnover
in this organization. So for these guys, it's about just getting home, not getting hurt, and I don't see a situation where there isn't a blowout here for the Indianapolis Colts. And then again the.
Fact you add in all the time and all the rushing.
I just feel like when they try to force the ball to Jonathan Taylor, it's going to eat up a lot of clock and I think it's gonna make it a really difficult situation for the Jaguars to score points because they have to be very efficient, and efficiency has not been the offensive strong suits. So at the end of the day, I think the fifty is actually a safer number, and I don't think anybody in that Jacksonville defense really cares at this point, and I can't blame them.
I mean, I wouldn't want to get hurt either, But that, to me, I think is actually something that I would lock in there. I feel confident about it despite the fact that it's a fifteen.
Yeah, fifteen is a high number, Joe, So a couple of things. Obviously, the consensus line is fifteen. There's fifteen and a half's out there at bet MGM. You, as we were talking about before we get on, are fandueled in Jersey? Is that your only book by.
The way, No, you got it one I like the most because I like the one you do.
That's also they give you better lines like I'm I'm at DraftKings. That's all we have here in New Hampshire. The lines are always tougher. Man, It's always like a little off from where I feel like the is in the wrong direction in my opinion, So you can actually get this as we talked about at fourteen and a half, that's like the only book I'm seeing out there at fourteen and a half. You lucky bastard. But that's fine. Here's the thing, Joe, and I didn't tell you this
before we started recording. One of my picks was actually going to be the Jackar getting the points. And I'm not going to make that one of my official picks, mainly because if you are giving me an off route or off ramp to not take the Jaguars and back, then I'm going to take it. And this is my off ramp. So I appreciate that. Here's my worry with it, though, Joe, same situations last year, and the Jags were equally futured last year, right. I think it was Mike Lennon as
the quarterback going in, they were terrible. It was the last game of the season. The Colts wound up winning by fourteen, but only on like a last minute thing did they get it up from one score to two score. There's this whole thing, Joe, right where you've got a team that's terrible and a team that gets blown out,
especially playing against the team that's playing for something. Right, You've got all these situations right now, you've got one team playing for something, but those situations, Joe number one. I think the lines are always a little inflated because they know that people casual betters are going to look at it and say, well, how are the I mean, the Colts have to win to get into the playoffs, and the Jaguars think, like, of course they'll go. So
I think the lines are generally a little inflated. And second, historically, like those teams that are limited, they play hard, and last week the Jaguars totally embarrassed, completely agree. I actually think that that bodes a little bit better for them in this game because I think when you look historically, teams that get absolutely drounced and lose by like twenty five points, they usually are pretty good against the spread. The following week. They also had a lot of COVID
issues last week. This strikes me as a game Joe with the Colts, where the Colts do this every time. They always struggle with Jacksonville for whatever reason, but where the Colts are gonna probably jump out to like a big lead, and then because they're the Colts, they're not gonna keep their foot on the gas and the Jags are gonna have a back yard cover here.
I'm not totally I think there's a lot of validity to what you're saying. But if you watched last week, you saw how New England just manhandled them at the line, and then you saw a few weeks ago how the Colts man handled New England in the trenches.
What I like the most about the Colts is.
They went up front, and that's something that I find that demoralizing. You know, Yeah, when you guys got like Nelson and guys like that who just absolutely get that push and things like that, once you're into that third quarter, it's just like, look, do I want to do this anymore?
And I think that's where I think eventually it's going to I think that real football in the trench of stuff is going to wear on the Jaguars in this game, kind of like the way they were on the Patriots side of that game too, So to me, I think that's the one thing that I will throw out there. But you make a lot of great arguments, and I told you there's gonna be something wacky here. I kept telling you I think it's going to be the Jets this week, which I know would make you very happy to end.
Are you going to take the Jets as one of your picks.
I don't know if I'm going to take the Jets as well, but I certainly wanted to. I mean, I talked about a couple of days ago. I felt like the line was a little too big and the Jets are really.
Chiming right now. Is Elijah More gonna come back? If so, then maybe.
I do like, yeah, so what we'll do, by the ways, after all we do all our picks, we'll very quickly run through the remaining spreads. We talked about it earlier in the week. We have a little more information now obviously that we do, so all right, that's fair. And the one thing I'll say, Joe also is like I think the Jags are locked into either the one or the two pick. And this does not strike me as a year where it's like we have to make sure we tank to get the umber one pick necessarily. Here
they've got Lawrence. And I think that even with teams like this, the individual players, they're all being evaluated, they all need jobs next year, and so how they do sort of will motivate them to play at their very best. Nevertheless, I am thankful that you took the Cults so that I can have an excuse to not take the Jaguars.
So that is not going to be official thing. Now here's a game, Joe, that I know we're on the same side of, and I know you have a little bit of a different way you want to go about it, which I like it. I am rarely gonna jump on the money line. I'm gonna instead take the spread and I'm going to take the forty nine ers getting four and a half from the Rams for you. This is one time where Fandel screws me out of a half point. Here, Joe, it's only four for you, but it's four and a
half everywhere. I don't know why Fandel has to go out on a limb and be cool, Joe. This is just this is the Niners against you know, the Rams. Like we know how the story ends, right, we know how it ends over the last several seasons. We know what Kyle Shanahan does against the Rams. This is just sort of how it works in that division. They have their number straight against the Niners. They dominated them earlier
this year. Matt Stafford, Joe, and I forget if you were the one who mentioned this on one of our podcasts. He's not playing very well of late.
It was your right, sluggish and flat in a lot of games, and then they end up kind of getting it together. But you can't keep doing that and think you're going to be a playoff team that matters.
At the end of the day.
Yeah, he's battling through some injuries. I'm sure. I think he has six interceptions over the last three games. All right, Joe, here's here's a good stet I found Matthew Stafford in his career. How often does he cover when he plays a winning team, just not not wins, forget about if he wins the game. How often does he cover the spread when a Matt Stafford led team plays against the
team with a winning record. The time forty of the time because he played a fantastic guess twenty eight percent of the time, twenty eight He does not cover against winning teams. It's terrible.
A tough one though, he because I mean it's he's a quarterback.
But there's also a five Lions.
The team led by It's still a spread man. The spread takes into account that he's playing on the Lions. It's a Matthew Stafford the team. The forty nine ers fans are going to travel here against the Rams. They need it more. The Rams need it, as we talked about last week, like they need to either win or have Arizona lose to be able to take that division. So they need to win, but they don't absolutely need to win. The forty nine Ers need to either win or they need the Saints to lose to Atlanta to
get into the playoffs. They're ready to go. I don't know if it's going to be Jimmy g or Trey Lance, but I don't think it matters. I think Lance played well enough. You know, last week, forty nine Ers secondary is bad, but that Niners defense still playing pretty well. I don't know whether or not Emmanuel Moseley is gonna be able to come back. They designated him to return. If so, it's a boon. But either way, ma'am, it's just what happens with this game, right, the Rams and
the Niners. You back the Niners and you Backyle Shanahana as a dog. I love it four and a half. I'll take it, yeah, And.
Of course I want to take it a step for because safe is never good enough for me. And I just want the forty nine ers outright. I mean, you're getting plus one seventy two. You're getting you know, plus money across the board here on the bad boy here, and I don't see why not. I mean, do we need to be beat over the head with this.
When it comes to this team? I mean, this would be six straight wins.
And I know you say, well, eventually it's got even out, does it?
Does it? Is this a team that just owns them?
And you mentioned the key thing which I touched on last time we were together, which is there's no home field advantage for the press.
It does not exist.
The LA crowd is the LA crowd anyway, and then you're gonna get the bougie forty nine er crowd coming down for this game, and you know there's a lot of them in that area, and you know they're gonna.
Travel for this game too, So.
It's gonna be like a almost fifty to fifty kind of feel in that stadium.
If not, I'm telling you, man, it's gonna be more Niners than it's gonna feel like a Niner.
And because the Niners need this game, and because I do think it's gonna be Trey Lance, I actually think Trey Lance is more equipped to win this game currently in the situation they're in. And the last thing I heard at Garroppolo was it feels my my thumb is tearing off. That doesn't sound very good. I mean, I can't I understand why he's trying to, because.
Sure that's it for him here.
Yeah, Desroyd, it's coming to an end. But if to me, if you're going to be aggressive on this game that is such a good plus number, that is really hard. I mean, it's almost two to one money on a team that's basically stuck it to the Rams five times in a row. I think it's worth investing in. I really do.
What did you think of Lance last week, Joe in terms of just how he looked.
Better as the game went on. Yeah, I mean that.
That can happen much better than the first half.
This is this is the hard part is you know when you are coming in here as a rookie quarterback, you know, it's it's a very difficult situation to come in mid season where everybody's been playing and everybody's in the rhythm. I think it takes a lot and then just like as he plays, it got better. I think had he been playing the whole year, we might have a whole different story here. Garoppolo has been safe. Garoppolo
has been able to get the job done. Garoppolo still makes mistakes that you shouldn't make this many years into the professional football league. I'm sorry, you just shouldn't make them at this point. He also doesn't throw the deep ball, so it limits the offense. He does not throw a good deep ball. He never has, didn't really in college either. So I think right now, you know, Lance kind of gives them a little bit of energy too. I think a different vibe and the Fortnitars offensive line is okay.
And I think his.
Escapability, the escapability of Trey Lance is a good thing because it extends plays. It creates that momentum thing also where when you extend a play, the guy you know, breaks free of a sack or breaks out of the pocket and runs for another fifteen yards or something like that.
That kind of stuff just crushes defenses.
When you have a guy on third and long and a guy runs for fifteen that's tough. Or he extends a play and then finds an open guy. Those kind of momentum swings in December January are everything in the NFL, so to me, or just football in general, so to me that I think that's something that Lance can bring that Garoppolo is kind of limited in.
Yeah, I think you've got it right. And certainly in the beginning of that game first half, I was a little worried about Lance what we were seeing from him. But he really looked so much more comfortable in the second half of that game, And I think that's kudos to both him and the coaching staff for baking basically making adjustments. All right, Joe, very good. Basically on the same side, you are more bold than I am, which
is not a surprise given who we are. Why don't you go ahead and give your second pick?
I mean, what a shock.
Dan Harris going out conservative boy talk about staying on brand. I we shall have shirts for Dan at the Fantasy Pro shop that say give it more talk, or let's see.
Him think about it, let's think about this.
I need some more time, all right. The next one for me is the Buccaneers on the minus eight side. I want the buccaneer side of this game. I think Carolina is falling apart at the seams. I mean, the quarterback play has been atrocious. I think Matt Rule has lost control.
And I can't think.
And I don't know if this is the podcast I talked about with you or somebody else. I don't remember a time going into a season where I felt more confident about a head coach at his position, and then towards the end of the year the complete polar opposite. I thought, Matt Rule, Joe Brady, they're building something here, you know, maybe this darnold thing is gonna work. And then September it kind of worked a little bit, and
now I feel like Rule's gonna be out. I think he's gonna be back in college at one of these major programs. I think they're gonna completely, you know, revamp things. And I can't believe it, And I think this game is very important for a few reasons. Number One, you've got some money on the line here for Rob Gronkowski. And don't you think Tom Brady knows that the five hundred thousand dollars has nothing to sneeze at if he catches seven more balls, So they're.
Gonna push the ball a little bit.
Yeah.
Defensively, I think you know when you've watched these teams play Tom Brady, the Carolina Panthers still very good, young defense, but still young, and Tom Brady tends to pick.
Apart those young defenses.
He did all last year to them too, where he kind of embarrassed them in spots because he just does those little oaki dogs, those little pump fakes, those little things. Yeah, it looks like he does that stuff. And because they're young and athletic and aggressive, it leads to mistakes. And I just think Tom Brady, despite all the Antonio Brown stuff, despite all the injuries with Godwin, despite Evans hamstering all these things, He's gonna find a way to win this game.
I think this is kind of important because I think the Bucks want to have a little momentum going into the playoffs and Brady's not one to come out of games and rest, So if they're up by a lot in the fourth quarter, he'll come out. But Brady typically does not like to come out of games. Brady typically is somebody that's going to push and play hard. And I just don't see how Carolina keeps pace here with the Buccaneers. That's the other thing too, And is there
an opportunity for a defensive score? And I think the answer is yes, in which case, whenever you see a number that's greater than six or that you're struggling with, if you think that there's opportunity for that, it's.
That defensive turnover, that defensive score.
And I think you're gonna see a couple turnovers in this game for the Carolina Panthers. So to me, I actually like the Buccaneers despite the big number on.
This one too.
You know, I want you to explain something to me, Joe. How is it that two weeks ago they go into Carolina and they win thirty two to six. Now at home, this spread is eight, like and it's it by the way, it was seven for a while, like it's moved up a point. Are we here's my question, are we missing something. Are they You're.
Missing wide receivers, you're missing weapons.
They were out last skin though, Joe that they got hurt in the Saints skin. This is after that. After that. They're actually in better shape right now because they have Mike Evans back. He's playing. So that's the thing I I would have agreed to detail if Godwin and Evan's fine, the running backs Okay, fine, now.
You don't even have pulling guys.
And but here's here's the thing. When when books set the line, Okay, we have to be honest. They have more information than you and I do.
Why they build giant hotels.
My friend, you are correct, which is why I'm saying, is it possible because everything you said is correct. Brady doesn't like sit. They arians doesn't pull them. They played their last game last year when they didn't really need to, uh like they were and they need to by the way here because now you're looking at a thing where you've got a gimpy Mike Evans. You've got no God when you've got no Brown like Brady needs time in
game action to develop a rapport with Grayson. Right with all these guys, everything suggests they're not gonna sit like, and Vegas is begging you, the books are begging you, saying good take the bucks. They seem to just be taking the stand here and that is the only thing that makes me nervous about it, because other than that, oh God, give me this. And what's worse, Joe is at eight how many teasers? Is this going to be a part of where people are gonna tease it down
to too? I'm already like, where's my other teaser piece? This is clearly my teaser piece here you can get under a field goal. So to me, Joe, that's my I think the pig is correct. I absolutely feel flumm with it. My only worry is like, do they somehow know something that we don't, because otherwise this line makes absolutely no sense to me, you know what I mean? Like, that's my only hesitation with it. Are we missing anything? But everything you said seems correct, right, I don't think.
I don't think we're missing anything on this one. I think that's just them covering themselves a little bit because of all the chaos that's also gone with.
The Buccaneers in the last seven days. Yeah, all right, a lot of chaos.
I mean, sometimes teams get distracted now, yeah, that's led by Tom Brady and Bruce Arians. I don't think it's going to correct. And I think that's also to the point why it's really important that this team plays. It gets on the field and goes past that distraction. Yeah, you know, and I think that's very important for them. So look, normally, you're right. Look, I completely agree with you in the sense that they are smarter than us,
which is why they build those casitos and hotels. However, in this instance, if I'm going to look for something to invest in, and you look at this board, do I want to invest in Bruce Arians and Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champions against Carolina.
Yeah, I do.
If I'm going to go down account, I'm gonna invest in those guys as opposed to some other things because I think there's some other lines that are inviting you that I am think of traps and I'm staying away from this one. I don't believe because I'm investing in the guys at the top, and the guys at the top at the end of the day are the ones who usually get this done.
It just makes no sense to me, Joe, Like, it really doesn't I'm to the point where I really I don't know what to do with it. You're over crazy, Yeah, that's what. Oh, I'll bet it. Don't I'll walk into a trap. I'm okay with it, so I'll buy with that, all right. So that's a good one, Joe, I'm with you. Look, man, I don't have I have a bunch of crazy stats for this. This is me thinking that the Raiders are just a vastly overrated team and that the Chargers are
a much better team. And I'm taking the Chargers on the road in Vegas to beat the Raiders by three. So I'm taking them, laying the three points. Now, Matt Parralt has already taken the Raiders getting the three points. I think it might be one of our picks of the day over at Betting Pro. I don't really care. I just think the Raiders are not a good team. They've played three games in overtime, Joe, Like, they they win these games, close games that they should lose, that
they somehow managed to do. They won three games in a row to put themselves in this position. Their turnover margin in their three victories negative seven. Like, this is not a team that deserves to be in the playoffs or is good enough and to be as fair as possible. They've dealt with an enormous amount of turmoil this entire year, between the Gruden and the Rugs thing. They've had no
Darren Waller. He may return here, which is certainly something that affects it because he does open up the offense. But the Chargers pass defense, which is really good when they're healthy, is finally healthy. The Raiders pass defense, which at one point was good, has not been good. The one real Achilles heel in this game is the Raiders as the Chargers rush defense. But number one, they're getting healthier in the rush defense, and you can see how they are able to sort of play when that happens
at number two. Look, I like Josh Jacobs from a fantasy perspective, From a prop perspective, Josh Jacobs was very good to me this year because I was always a little more bullish on him than the market was. But he's not a guy who go there and it's going to basically dominate a game anymore. Like that's just not who he is to me. The Chargers are going to win this game. If it's a field goal, it's not moving. By the way, Joe, this is a field goal game.
That's it. I mean, you want something to worry about. It's the fact that they could only need a tie to win, and they could both lie down if everything goes right. I think the Chargers win this game in Vegas, and I think they win by more than a field goal. So I'm taking the Chargers. I'm interested to know how you feel about it, Joe, because again, I do know people who are on the other side of this, and I'm not sure I understand why.
I'm on your side of this one, okay, which again I hate saying those.
Words, but I am.
I'm on your side of this one, and I think this game goes a long way if indeed the Chargers win this football game, of shedding that label of the same old Chargers who have a lot of talent but always collapse in big spots. I think the difference is Herbert. I think that's the difference here. And Herbert tends to show up in these big games too, which I like.
I think that's the mark of a great quarterback. And you know, even in my early rankings so far on Fantasy Pros and we turned over the year, like the next day the season's over. Well, we turn over the we're starting to look ahead. Herbert to me is an elite quarterback.
He really is.
And I think Staley is a really good football coach. I want to give the Raiders credit, and I want to give the coaching staff credit for keeping this thing together, just keeping it together as long as they have. That they're ring into week eighteen is stunning, and I think there's something about that that they're home, and you know, I think the energy there and I get all of that. But at the end of the day, I'm looking at
the defense, and I think you're right. I think the defensive side of the football here on the charter side, is just much better. I also got the quarterback, and those are the two things to me, when I'm making investments, whether it be fantasy or whether it be wagering, defense and quarterback play are the things you should be looking at investing in. And I think the Chargers have that more so than the Raiders, and that's why I think it's a smarter investment.
Now, if they lose this game, we'll go back.
To that same narrative and it's going to haunt them all off season of Why couldn't you get your business done in that big spot when it mattered. You're the same charges we see every year. I think it's a little different with Staley. But this game, I think is at the end of the day going to either move the needle forward or revert us right back to the old thinking.
And I understand the I mean, look that the loss of the Texans a couple of weeks ago was just horrible, right, Like that's something we're like, come on, man, But you look at the point score Joe over the last five games against Cincinnati, pretty solid defense forty one against the Giants thirty seven. They lost that game to Kansas City and scored twenty eight points, and they had like three times where they were down within like the three yard
line and they couldn't push it across. They obviously could have scored even more. Against Houston they scored twenty nine. Against Denver they scored thirty four. They're gonna put up points. I do not see the Raiders putting up a twenty eight spot in this game, Like, I just don't. And I do think that the Chargers will against that Raiders defense that just has not been nearly as good of late. So yeah, I'm taking the Chargers. I feel okay about it. I think they make it.
The one other thing too, when Abram got hurt, Yeah, I think that craps the secondary significantly. And this is and this is why when you play IDP right and you are focused on all these kind of little things, you see these things and you go, well, how that gonn impact?
Because Abram was a terrifying guy back there.
That guy hits hard on the few guys that still hits people back there, he hits him legally, he hits and you take that guy out of that secondary, you take away the fear factor for the wide receivers. And that's a bad concoction potentially for this game.
Yeah, and again just looking at the at the Raiders. Uh, you know, last several games, like they beat Dallas on Thanksgiving, which is kind of a weird game that happened. They lost to Washington seventeen fifteen, They got absolutely obliterated by the Chiefs forty eight nine. They barely beat a Cleveland team that was just completely decimated at that point and was playing all backups and everything like that. Sixteen fourteen,
they barely got away with that game. They beat Denver seventeen to thirteen when you had Drew Lock out there and then they beat the Colts, who again, fine, the Colts also have a way of just sort of hanging it stuff like that. This is not a good team man, And kudos again, Joe, you said it. Kudos to that coaching staff, Kudos to that whole team were holding it together where they could have fallen apart forever ago. They're not winning this game, I don't think, and I think
they lose a bit more film. Last pick, Joe, what do you got?
Well?
I talked about defense as Quintin, and we're talking about trends and things like that. I think one of the things I like the most is, you know, from a DFS standpoint, we were on this game yesterday on the podcast over on Fantasy Pro Side and just loving this forty eight number with Arizona and Seattle. I mean, Seattle another team. When you lose Jamal Adams at the secondary, that's a big loss. And you've been able to throw
the ball aton on Seattle. So it helps Arizona because Arizona from an offensive standpoint, has been lackluster without their key pieces, without DeAndre Hopkins and Connor has been, you know, kind of limping to the finish line here. We'll see if he plays or not this week, but it's great.
To get Edmonds back.
I just think at the end of the day, historically, when you look at these games too, and you look at the way they played each other, these games tend to be high scoring between these two and the Arizona defense as as good as they were in the beginning of the year, it's kind of flipped now. I don't know if it's flip because the offense has been lackluster and put them in bad spots too much or kept them on the field too much. Fatigue fact injury though,
injuries too, but everybody's had injuries. They've really fallen off in terms of points, in terms of when you're looking at them, bigg giving up big plays and things like that. So there's every opportunity here where the Seattle Seahawks, with a very capable quarterback could want to say, hey, we'll got to stick it to you guys at the end in division game all that, I think that is certainly a very viable narrative, and forty eight is just a very low number for these two teams.
Anyway, let alone a week eighteen.
So, as far as I'm concerned, when you got two stellar quarterbacks here, these are two QB one guys, and there's incentives on the line for certain guys. Aj Green's got incentives personally in this game. Yeah, I think you know, seventy five yards is attainable for him. He's hit that a couple of times. It's a It's not an impossible number, although maybe a challenging one at times. I think you look at that. I think you look at the way
where shot Penny's played. Wilson certainly looks healthier than he did six seven weeks ago. So, as far as I'm concerned, the forty eight is too low. If I was setting this, it will be a fifty one to begin with. Wow, that it's still in the forty eight's, I think, to me personally, just far too low for this game.
Yeah, it's forty seven and a half at BETMGM. So there you go. I am in agreement with you, Joe. I hadn't really looked at this game very much, but I think your points are right, and I think the good part about it too, is like, because we are in week eighteen, I'm sure, the Seahawks want to win this game, obviously. The Cardinals need to win this game
if they have any shot of the division. I think that you're going to see less of the let's run, Pete Carroll, let's run the ball, let's punt it on fourth and one, and they'll probably take more chances and let Russ erit out a little bit more and try to see what they can build on going into next year. So I do think there are going to be points in this game. And I like this call. I really hadn't even thought about it before you brought it up,
so I'm in agreement with you. I like it. I'm mad at myself for not being on it earlier, but yeah, I'm with you. So you know, Joe, there are times when there are some really low over unders. This week's some really low ones. You know what's fun when you see a really really low over under and you go under it. And that is what I'm doing with the Bengals at the Browns at thirty eight thirty eight. I'm still going on it. There are a couple of reasons.
Number One, the weather actually is going to right now, at least as we record this on Friday, the weather forecast is bad in Cleveland. It's like the wins, right. The wind Joe, for me, is really the one thing that I think affects sort of right off of those.
Two games last year where nobody could move the football.
I mean those two.
Games were what like ten to seven field.
Yeah, and I'm not kidding, like I honestly think like this is a game that ends at like twenty points, like it really, I mean I wouldn't bet like an overhudder there. But at thirty eight it's going to be really windy. You're gonna have the Bengals not having anybody in there because you know Burrow's not going to play. You know, Mixing's already out. They don't want anybody to get hurt in this game. There's no reason for them to risk anything. And the Browns obviously no Mayfield. Look,
no teams don't tank, Joe. Okay, teams don't tank. But the difference right now, because all those teams are bunched up, the difference between getting the number four, see the finishing fourth in that division versus finishing third, it's actually going to be pretty big in terms of schedule next year, right Instead of getting the Dolphins. You're gonna get the Jets right instead of get you know, that sort of
type of thing. I think they play the I think with the eighteen, I think they go against fourth place in the division, in the NFC East. I believe if memory serves, which means you get the Giants, like there's there's a good reason to come and last in that division. And I just think I'm not saying that they're gonna outright like Tank. I just think that they're not that motivated to basically put everything out, you know, with Chub Joe again, what did we if Chubb either got banged
up last week or whether or not. They're just like, who cares if we beat Pittsburgh. At this point, we're not gonna take any chances. We're gonna rest them, maybe put in our backups just to see like they're not going to risk anybody within reason. They're not going to do anything crazy. You've got backups, you've got bad weather, You've got no incentive for either team to give a crap about this game. Thirty eight points with the weather.
The weather is a big deal for me. If it clears up, I'm gonna I may be regretting this but if it's I think you're just gonna see, you know, samaj p Ryan and you know Dearanis Johnson run the ball forty times in this game and get the heck out of there. Low total, Joey, I'm still going under thirty eight points? Is that crazy? Is it crazy to go under?
Especially the win factor because you know, I've been to that stadium and it's I mean, yeah, oh it is. The wind factor is is huge off that river at times, and you saw it last year in those games were just completely destroyed the productivity.
You could not basically throw the football.
And it's always funny to because people hyperventilate about rain and stuff. I'm like, well, like some guys can throw the ball in the rain. It's a fine, like this torrential downpour. And even then I've seen games where it's it's odd because you can end up breaking a small pass for a very long run after, you know, because somebody slips and falls down and all that stuff. So it's the wind factor that to me always always impacts
totals far more than the rain fact. People the rain and they freak out, but they should be looking at the wind more often, especially in places like Cleveland where you've seen it play out in games before. So if it is up to those gusts where it was similar to those games last season and there were two of them. If memory serves last year with Baker Mayfield.
That it was just it was almost like comical. You're like, well, they're just gonna run the football million.
Time, right, I mean think about the Bills and the h and the Pats right this year, they maybe right that game right, And I don't think it's supposed to be that bad, but I do like when I checked last night, Jobe was sustained twenty five sustained twenty five mile hour wins. That's field goes by the way out the window right like to another thing, extra point like it just everything to me screams to the under. So I don't mind. I want to talk about the spread
when we get to that game. So I'll recap all of our six best bets of the weekend afterwards. I do Joe very quickly want to hyper speed run through the remaining spread. Is that quol with you? Yes, sir, Let's go Saturday. The Chiefs are laying eleven in Denver to the Broncos. Obviously, the Chiefs still have a chance at the number one seed if the Texans beat the Titans, which they did earlier in the year, so they're motivated
to win. I think it's still gonna be Drew Lock in this game, although I haven't I haven't seen anything. Although it's Bridgewater on IR, I don't know. I think it's gonna be Drew Lock regardless of what you got, Chiefs slaying eleven.
I'll take the Chiefs side of this one.
Do you think they're gonna win big?
I think after last week, I think they need to to be honest with you.
Yeah, I mean you want to get the you want to end.
Up going into this season for them because they they had it up until last week, but now they I mean it's kind of mentally important. I think it just like they're just a team that far out classes the Denver Broncos right now in terms of quarterback played. And once again, you can invest in quarterback and Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, or you can invest in Drew Lock.
And Vic Fangio.
I'm gonna write yeah. On the other side, Bridgewater is out for the season, by the way. My poll and Locke, by the way is banged up as well, so already bad to worse. Yeah, it's eleven. I'm probably I'm probably just gonna player prop this one. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna get mountain the spread. Cowboys are laying four and a half to the Eagles. Joe, when we looked at a Monday, I think it was seven, maybe we
like we were like, WHOA what is this? Cowboys are going to play to win reportedly, and again McCarthy has a history of resting players and that not working out for him very well going into the playoffs. Don't know exactly what the Eagles are going to do now, other than the fact that the entire team is on the COVID list four and a half.
Joe, what do you think I'm still tempted to on the Eagles side?
Is hurt isn't on there? As long as Hurts isn't on there?
You No, Hurts is not. But even if you were, Joe going to kill you Like, no, he's not.
Look, you know, my my faith in the Cowboys is tricky, and Michael Parsons is out for this game to correct Also Grave that's another piece where if you're taking somebody out of this game. You're taking the best defensive player right now in that conference arguably off.
Yes, that's a big one too. So I'm still on the eagle side.
But remember when we were here on Tuesday, we were talking about six and a half or something.
I was like, it was it was seven in a lot of books.
Let's get the eagle side now before he did, it's a shrink and look, ye there is a four and a half.
I'm not surprised at all.
Yeah, rare time. We made the right call on that one on Monday. So yeah, I agree, that's exactly right. And if you know, I wouldn't mind making the Eagles part of a teaser piece. Get him up to over ten ten and a half. Steelers are visiting the Ravens. They're plus five. I'm still not expecting Lamar Jackson to
play here. He's not practicing. I mean, for either one of these teams, they both have something to play for because they're not mathematically eliminated, but for either one to make the playoffs requires a confluence of events that is just almost impossible to imagine at this point. So you want to go with Mike Tomlin on the road as an underdog in games that are historically tight show or you think the Ravens are going to finish on the high note.
You know, this is a game I'm out on Tuesday and I'm out on Friday. Just all right, because these are this is the rivalry game. They seems hate each other in way, there's a respect factor. They don't care about playoffs. It was like, look, you know, it's been a disappointing season. Do we want to end it on a high note. I think both teams do so. This is not like phoning it in. These teams are gonna go at it and it's gonna be a close game,
too close, if anything. I'll take the Steelers on the five side of that one, because I think that's actually kind of a high number.
I think if you had to go on one way, I would go with the Steelers just because it's my top five and that's pretty now to be for you, it's four and a half. For me, it's actually four. It's five and a lot of other books.
Well, on the consensus betting pros it's plus five.
That's right exactly. I don't I don't really want it. If I have to go one, well, I'll go to the Steelers. Just because I do think that you get Mike Tom on the road. And again these games, like if these games fall outside of a three point window, it's weird because they've been playing like that basically historically, Titans visiting the Texans, Joe, they are laying ten. That sounds eerily familiar. Titans Texans. Titans laying ten didn't end
well for the Titans last time. Obviously, the Titans are playing for the number one seed. I guess no, I don't even know. It's not possible. Actually, they can't wrap it up before them, Titans laying ten? What do you think?
This is the trap one?
To me? This is the one that terrifies me. Remember before, there's a trap one on here. That's a big number that I think is a huge trap. But like that's the one. I mean theoretically, yeah, the Titan should absolutely handle their business.
The Titans may get Derrick Henry back, so we're still not.
I don't think for this game, right, I mean it's I.
Don't think it's realistic. I don't think they should push him, but this.
Is I think that's his ideal though, right, and they get the buye. They practice him this week, they practice him next week.
Tan his game, but the ten is just not a number I'm comfortable with. With the Titans and Davis Mills has played DCS down the stretch.
Yes, I'm out so.
Much better than I expected. I'll be honest, like in his rookie season. Uh yeah, I'm staying away from it. I want to for the Titans, but I it's too many points for me to back them. For sure. Bengals are visiting the Browns. We just talked about, Joe. The Bengals are getting six, and I'm gonna be frank with you, Joe. I almost made this one of my picks, the Bengals getting six, because I realize that they're playing all back up.
But again, I don't think the Browns are very motivated to win this game, and you're gonna have crazy win, which is like an equalizer and everything like that. So I would just take the team getting almost a touchdown in this one if I have to go one way. But it's also a game that I had absolutely no interest in being in on other than rooting against scoring overall. What do you think?
Well? I think I have more faith in case Keenom than Brandon Allen for sure, and that's the hard part, and that's what makes it so tricky as you're dealing with not one, but two backup quarterbacks. So I don't know, Man, this is another game that I just I think you're right. I think if you're gonnapproach this game, it's the under from the lot of the factors we talked about, and you stay away from the line.
Personally, Vikings playing five and a half at home against the bear sounds like it's gonna be fields returning for this game. So not sure what that does for you, Joe when you think about the team. But what do you think five and a half kind of a dead number just sitting there?
Why wouldn't you take the Bear side? I mean, what about the Vikings hasn't meant that they collapse and make games close and have a lead and blow it every time? I mean, that's the thing that can And I almost made this one of my picks because I was looking at I was like, have I learned nothing from the twenty twenty one football season about the Minnesota Vikings. Yeah, the miniesulta Vikings should win this game handily, But do
they ever win a game handily? They're supposed to do No, do they end up in these games where they're winning by less than three?
Yes?
Do they have a touchdown in every single game and then somehow lose that lead? Pretty much up until week seventeen, Yeah, that was the case. So I don't know. At a certain point when do we You don't have to get beat over the head with it. I think if I'm gonna be in on this game, it's gonna be on the Bear side, so I would lean towards the Bear side.
I st don't like betting it because I'm betting a quarterback, a rookie quarterback on the road, and two head coaches that are basically I mean, I think both are probably done at the end of the year.
I think it matters what happens in this game.
But this one's gonna be fun, I think from a fantasy perspective, because I think everything's just gonna hang out for this one.
But it's just gonna be All bets are off.
But I don't know. Man to me, the bear side jumps out because of everything we've seen out of the Bengals stessh, I mean the Vikings. I don't think the Vikings are gonna lose, but I don't think that they're gonna win by running away either.
When has that been the Vikings? HEMO this year?
That's true, they do not run away with any victories. I just want nothing to do with this game at all, Like, no, I have no idea what I'm going to see. And again, a totally meaningless game though, right like this is the spot where you can see the Vikings do really well. Right, like a totally meaningless game. Nobody gives a crap about it. They'll blow them out by you know, forty points. So I just I'm staying away from it and no idea
what to expect. This one's an interesting one, Joe. The Lions are getting three and a half from the Packers. This went from saying, Okay, the Packers are going to rest everybody to you know, Lafour coming out and saying we're not gonna rest. We've looked at it historically. That doesn't do people well. But you have Aaron Rodgers, who what is the point of getting a buy and not giving the guy who's basically been dealing with the toe
injury forever like an extra week of rest. So three and a half points here, Joe, what do you think I.
Like the Lions side of this one. The plus three off, I see it's plus four at bet MGM. It's because of how much Jordan Love. I think we're gonna see We're gonna see Aaron Rodgers of this game, because I don't think if you look historically, the comp layoff for two plus weeks.
Has been a good thing. Y hasn't it just happened me?
These guys come out flat, and there's a part of me they wouldn't mind seeing that necessarily. But at the same time, I think you'll see Rogers for maybe a quarter a couple series, and then it hands over to Jordan Love. And from what I've seen of Jordan Love and what I've seen of Dan Campbell getting his team fired up to play football every week. Somehow despite all of the negga, I mean, we look up right now, they're what four win team.
Right thirteen and one, so they have a chance.
So I was thinking they could be a four win team here, but I forgot about the tie. They're not. I think they're gonna show up as they always do and play strong. And at the end of the day, is Jordan Love gonna make some mistakes? Yeah? And I think that's enough for me to be on the Lion's side of this one. And it just really depends on is this is not a great investable game because you don't know how long Aaron Rodgers is going to play. If he plays one series and he's out all of
a sudden, that line line looks really good. You know what this is? This is a game that if you like in game betting, this is a.
Game boom that's right. Ready, This is.
The Roer betting line of the week, this.
One Rogers is in for the first series, they score a touchdown, the in game line jumps up. Bet the line bet there. Then I think I think Rogers plays the series. I think he plays one series with the starters and then is out because if.
I'd be enough to get seven, and then when he gets the seven, you turn around and go, okay, go right to the Lions in game right by this freak in.
Game Yeah, but I would take it at three and a half if I had to that. That is the spot that I like it as well. Again, not one of my picks, but it is there. Joe the Washington football team seven to the Giants. What do you think, girls?
Do I have to watch this game.
Do you do you're contractually obligated?
Horrendous? I don't.
I own nothing to do with this, Like I just I love to say, yeah, it's just Washington and a romp and things like that, but I don't know if they've got the goods to really, you know, just handle anybody. And they make mistakes at the worst time. Every time high he makes a bad mistake. So I know I'm out on this game. This is another trap one to me because it should be completely that and if the Giants not only covered but won this football game, like you is that? Is that gonna shock anybody?
Now?
Seven points?
Ugh?
Disgusting?
Yeah, three and a half I'd go, okay, well look give him a shot or four?
Yeah, because they pass over that touchdown. It's like they're gonna be pissed at Joe Judge. For sure, they're gonna want to win this game. But whatever, Yeah, it's too much. I can't back the Giants for sure, but I can't back anybody in this one. Pats are laying six to the Dolphins. They historically struggle in Miami. What do you think here, Joe Tom.
Brady historically struggles in Miami, So I point that out when you have weather typically that's been very hot and things like that, especially in the beginning of the seasons. Those are the games that Brady had struggled in. I think there was a stat out there. I remember seeing it last year or before he went to Florida. Somebody
put it out there. But it's like, do you really want to be a buccaneer, Tom, you know, because they showed you, you know, in games of eighty five degrees or more or something like that, like Tom Brady's well they had one win or something crazy like that.
Yeah, career.
But I'm gonna say this. I think that.
Last week the Dolphins got punched in the mouth a little bit and they're staggering, and I feel like the momentum right now is all on the Patriots side. I feel like them the Patriots feel good about themselves there beating up of the Jaguars.
They lost the two.
Competitive games that they had left on the schedule, right so they had the Colts.
They lost that one.
I think they got a little a little you know, kind of high falutint and then they competed with Buffalo. But really, at the end of the day, Buffalo handed it to him. So this was a good bounce back for them last week against the Jaguars where they get back on track and all that. But the Dolphins game here, this is a very tricky one. If anything, I think the Patriots win, but I think the Dolphins of the plus six is the smart way to go about this.
Yeah, I think that's right, Joe. I think I'm probably gonna stay away from it. I haven't had a good reado on the Pats all year at being transparent, like I just haven't. So it strikes me if that's correct. But it's probably a game I'll stay away from as I will. This one sounds like you may be in on it. Bill's playing sixteen to the Jets. J Ets, j Ets, What do you think, Joe, sixteen?
It's a lot. And you know, here's what happened.
I look, you get sixteen and a half at fand old body.
I was looking around.
I was like, all right, let me look at the game log for the Bills and how many games are they blowing out people? And there's enough blowouts for the Bills in the second half of the season where I go, no, I can't really do this. But after watching the Jets last week, I kind of feel like the Jets few like, well, we can at least kind of be competitive here, and I.
Think it's a big.
Boost for you when you can compete for a few quarters with the raigning champions. And I think Wilson's looking more confident if they get Elijah Moore back for this game and Barrios has played well, why can't you compete? Why can't you and garbage time get some point. There's variables here that make it very tempting, but it's said, I'm just going to stay away from it because it is the Jets at the end of the day, and Goodness knows, I just can't trust them.
But I want to, Dan, I really want to.
So do I. But I'm staying away well just because I think that we've seen enough where you see the Jets kind of randomly look borderline competent on offense and Wilson look okay, and then he lays the dud. I'm hoping that you see him build on last week, in which case, from a completely personal fan standpoint, that you can feel because I do think that Wilson has played better of late in recent weeks, and certainly this last game. If he does again here you can feel confident in him.
For me, I'm not there yet, so I'm just gonna take a step back. Hope they play this one close. If I had to take a side, it would be the Jets. We talked about the total in this game, though, how do you see the spreadshoe with the Seahawks and the cards. It's six and a half right now across the board everywhere.
Give me the Seahawks with the six and a half because the Arizona Cardinals don't put teams away, they just don't.
I think that's right. I think that's right. I think that this game will be closer than sort of people expect, and I think that's why the books are kind of laying it. I think the books are begging you to basically tease the cards down, like they're saying, God, teasing down to half point, see what happens. Like, well, now, I wouldn't be surprised to Seahawks on this game. Again, Second divisional games are always tricky anyway, so who knows about.
That this one?
Joe, I had very mixed feelings about these Saints are visiting the Falcons. They're laying three and a half. You saw the Falcons have a big game against them. The Saints do not score points. They just don't score points. So, you know, I don't know, Joe, what do you think here? Three and a half Falcons at home?
Gross? I want nothing to do with this game either.
I just I don't have a beat on it, especially after the last week with the Falcons were competitive for half a football against the Bills in the snow. Who the hell saw that coming? Like, I just, I know, I'm Jostradamus. But at the same time, I mean, I was watching the Falcons there and I'm watching them in the snow, and I'm watching it was like a fifteen to twelve game. At one point, I go, what in God's name am I watching right now? How are the
Falcons even in this? And then you add in the fact that Kyp has been doing with that hamstring injury, like he's that weapon they have left.
I don't know.
I mean, that's tough too, because he's got that that. You know, milestone obviously can be that, I know, but but he's banged up, I.
Know, push him for a milestone.
It strikes me, Joe. As he plays, he runs a couple of routes he catches a pass and then he's like, I can't, I can't go right, Like that's that's really what it seems like. Yeah, I'm with you if I'm forced to go though one way, Joe, I'm going to take overfield goal at this point because how many points are the Saints put up, like seventeen, Maybe the Falcons can fide their way to that. Obviously, the Saints are
playing for something. If they win the Niner sues, they're in the playoffs, so they're motivated, but again, I don't really think that matters necessarily. All Right, that's it. This is my final podcast. As we said, Joe, it was enjoyable. Thank you very much for making my final podcast fun. Let's recap very quickly the bets. Let me see if I have it right, Joe, you correct me. If I have your bets in correct, you're taking the Colts. We'll give minus fifteen. You can get it fourteen and a half.
Though the Bucks are laying eight, and the Cards and the Seahawks over forty eight. You're also sprinkling on the San Francisco money line at plus one seventy two. I'm going to be a coward and just take the points with the forty nine Ers getting four and a half from the Ram the jack No, I'm not taking the Jags actually because I know you can't. Chargers, Charger, Jaguars,
you got it right. The Chargers though, laying three to the Raiders and the Bengals and the Browns and the Wind Bowl and the Backup Bowl under thirty eight points. It has been a pleasure hosting this podcast. Joe has been hosting the College Football podcast and the non NFL podcast for the whole year. He's going to take you to the finish line to the super Bowl with this podcast. Joe, it's been a pleasure. I appreciate you joining me today, and please don't screw up the NFL side of the
podcast into the future. Can you do that for me?
No promises, Dan, but I will try. I will try my best to keep it going.
But again, thanks for having me on today, and I hope at least for you, there's nobody else that you wanted to finish your last podcast here Fantasy Pros with, because I know I wanted to be on the show with.
You today, so it was fun as usual. My friend. I'll miss year.
You were definitely my top eighteen of people to have on this. The first was twenty first, seventeen declined, but you were here anyway. I appreciate everybody. Good luck with your bets again Sunday Morning Betting prosy Livestream, YouTube, dot Com, Slash betting pros Matt Pearl and I bringing down, giving out some player props, all that good stuff. That will be my final public appearance on as a part of
fans Rosa Betting Pro. So I'll talk to you that in the meantime, enjoy the snow, Joe, go go shovel some snow. I'm gonna go snowblowing my driveway and I'll talk to again on Tip