Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris. With me, of course, is Matt Perrault. Find us on Twitter at Dan Harris Hadi and at Sports Talk Matt Matt Week seventeen. What's going on?
Well, I mean, for starters, I look like I just kind of woke up because I just did. So this is an early morning tape session here on the West Coast for me, So I do apologize. If you're like Matt Man, what happened to you? I'm on vacation, all right, I'm on vacation. Actually that's what happened to me. I'm a vacation. But you know, look last week, Week seventeen, Week sixteen into seventeen, it's hard. This is a really tough time. I know we went two and three, but
I'm I'm proud of our first run. I mean, I know we came in the top two hundred, into the top two hundred of the DraftKings contest, not in the money, but I think I learned a lot about the DraftKings system for next year because it is a different system than than others. Given that two bye week situation, did you have to take ye? Were you happy with where we took our by weeks? Would you rather have taken them earlier? No?
I think that they were good. I don't you know. I The one thing I think I would change is that I think we went in with a set mindset of what we were going to do with the bye weeks. This week. This year in particular, it was so tough because there were certain weeks that I think provided more value than others, which we didn't know about because of COVID concludits right where there'd be a line, they have
to set. These lines, they get set on Wednesday, and then you might have you know, half the teams out they can find out on Saturday. So I was very happy with our first year in the contest. Again, you mentioned top two hundred, one hundred and seventy first out of about seven hundred teams.
So really not eight hundred. It was like seven to sixty, right.
Yeah, it might be eight a hundred number was right. The number was a little different, so it might be eight hundred, right, So that's top. You know, twenty five percent went thirty eight and thirty two fifty four point three percent, which is good percent of course. So we were four picks out of the money, so we make four different picks, and I feel like, you know, yeah, I was. I was very happy with our first showing. We we you know, didn't have a great final week,
as you mentioned, we lost on the Rams. You know, even though the final the final week was a little different too, because we were thinking a little bit strategically, Like we left in the Browns that we liked originally, even when all the receivers were out, which we realized figured probably most people wouldn't be on given the line and everything like that, but it was worth taking a shot on them that obviously didn't work out. Your Rams, Jared Goff Jared goffed and you know, broke his thumb,
so you had that. The Titans, we were just we just missed on the Titans, like that was that was a pick I know you liked. We kind of missed on it.
Just I miss on the Rams. I missed on the Titans. I mean I missed my two favorite picks of the week that I liked a lot, and some of the crazier ones you know that that were later in the week, you know, the people that was doing the other contests, with. I mean, this is this is year four for me doing contests, and you know, every year I learned something new. It's incredibly difficult. Next year, the DraftKings contest will have probably four times as many people as they're in it
right now. We will probably have three thousand people in it. Four thousand people that are in it next year. And you know, the rules every contest, they'll tweak them and they'll turn them around. But you know, I think one of the more challenging things this year was the idea of who and when the game gets played and who's going to be in the game, and so this was as challenging. It's hard anyway people think, oh, static lines, it's easy. No, it's really hard, But not just that.
It's really hard when you don't know for sure whether players are going to be in or out, and then the impact that that player being out is it significant or is it nothing? And trying to balance that is pretty hard. But I do like the fact that DraftKings has that late change addition. But one thing I think what you and I did, and what I did more than anything, is that I talked us off way too
many picks. I take responsibility for a lot of that because I think I think I talked us off of at least three guaranteed points during the week.
I think what we should do, we should stick with it a little more, stick with our initial thoughts for sure if we can. I also think, like I don't know, maybe next year something that we do it. We should maybe we should each have like one one like guaranteed pick or something like that.
Yeah, that's a good point. Do we hold on to and that's hours yeah?
Yeah. And I also think we did this once with the Rams versus the Patriots, which again that was that was one that you pushed and you were like, no, this is my favorite bet of the week, and I did like it, I think, even though it was a parathosm with the five and a half, but that was a Thursday game. And the one thing that separates the DraftKings contest from these other contests is that again, you can make the Thursday pick but not lock in your other picks. You can you can mess around with all
the picks. They don't lock until Sunday mornings, so you can make picks and then change them right before Sunday morning. And your other kinda is in the West Gate in the circa. You if you pick a Thursday game, you lock in all your picks at that point, right.
Yeah, I went three and oh on Saturday in Week sixteen.
Oh really yeah?
Three? I got all three games, right, nobody, but nobody wanted to use it. Yeah, and I So I literally went to you and to my other two partners and I was like, here's what like on Saturday. And I liked all three games, and everybody was like, nah, man, I can't do it. I can't can't play Saturday. We just let's just stick to Sunday. I was like, but I like the forty nine ers. They're like, you like the forty nine ers. I was like, yeah, I like the forty nine ers. Are like, no, I'm not playing
the forty nine ers. And then I was like, oh man, so it's just it's whatever.
Yeah, are you still alive in any of them at all?
West Skates? I am still alive. So I am. I cannot win the Westgate reboot, but I can come in the top ten to cash. Okay, So I need a four and one game. I mean, I basically am half a point out of the money. But everyone's gonna mean this is week seventeen. So this is always a real topsy turvy week. And this is where people who this is what I love about the West Gate in the Circle for that matter, people who have you know, one
or two teams. Sometimes they have two teams in they will go and they'll bet once and then for their other team they'll bet the complete other side. Yeah in case in case they go oh and five, they go five and oh with their other team, and they potentially could get into the money that way. So you know where the standings are right now. I mean, look, if we go four and one in the West Gate, then I think we'll probably be in the money. But one of my friends is tied for thirtieth in the circa
right now. Wow, and they're they're currently in Maui on vacation, and I'm like, you better not get vacation, brain, because you have a chance to get I mean quite a know, you're coming in the top ten in the circa and you're cashing a six figure check. So you know, I'm watching closely Sausage King of Omaha if you're curious to watch that, the Sausage Kings team Sausage King of Omaha.
I think it's number three because he's got three, he's got one, two and three, but potentially they may get into the money.
All right, So no more contest picks here for us, because again that all of the west Gate and the Circa are still going. They go through week seventeen. DraftKings ended on week sixteen, So we're just gonna basically get our five best against the spread bets on this pick. We're gonna you know, essentially contest it, but we're gonna use the consensus lines of our betting pros dot com.
Again that takes the aggregate lines that are available and gives you a consensus of what is and like you can see, they're dropping, like the Steelers Browns line is dropping.
So yeah, I can tell I've got the Westgate numbers, so like I can use where the betting Pros consensus lines are, I can use that up against the west Gate just to give you an idea of the differences as to where the contests are going to be versus where we are for right now with the lines.
Okay, all right, so let's get started then, Matt as usual, why don't you kick us off with your number one play of the week.
Oh man, this is this week's stinks man, because you just don't really know what each team is going to do. Like there, you know we know that certain teams like the Bills, the Steelers, we already know that they're not going to be playing their starters, right, so like.
Do we know that? Hold on, do we know that about the Bills?
Pretty much? Yeah, I mean this morning saw McDermott, like, you know.
Somebody made their decisions.
Basically, Yeah, Matt Barkley is probably gonna play quite a bit. I think I think you might see the Bills play. You know, maybe they start the game with their starters and they pull everybody out.
I think that's what they did last year. The one thing is, and again I don't know, Matt, and you might have a better sense of this, is how much they care. Like, for example, if the Bills win and the Steelers lose, then the Bills are going to get the second seed. Correct, I don't know how much that matters to them. You avoid the Chiefs, right, You avoid the Chiefs until the final round essentially for that, But I guess you would anyway. I guess it doesn't matter.
Just really be the home game that's sort of coming out there. So I don't know. I don't know whether or not that matters to a team at this point or whether it's legitimately well where second or third doesn't. We don't really care. So we're going to completely rest. But there is something on the line, at least for the Bills. But go ahead.
Yeah, it's it's difficult because I think if they fine, teams that have to win have to play. So one thing that I've been looking at, I'm looking at the early games for the game I'm gonna bet and the games I'm gonna pick, because I don't like that later in the day, if you already know your fate, then it gets I don't.
I didn't they set it up so that you don't. Didn't they set it up so that any game that affects another game gets played at the same time. I think that's what they did.
It gets played early, right, So I think most of the games, like, Okay, so Bill's Dolphins is early, right, Steelers Browns is early, Cowboys, Giants is early other games, and then the and then the Packers and the Bears are late. Seahawks forty nine, Ers is late Chargers, Chiefs doesn't matter. And then you've got Saints Panthers, which is late, and then the night game is Washington and the Eagles.
So both the Titans and the Colts play late right at the same time, given that they're both fighting it after.
The correct correct Yes, so like those are those are games that do matter. It matters from home for home teams, right sure. So like I, I don't really have a number one at the moment, Okay, yeah, because I'm having a tough time with the week. But if I had to make a play right now, it would be on the Cowboys to beat the Giants, Okay. And I think the one and a half line in the Westgates Super Contest are two right now, the consensus lines two. There are the Fandals at two and a half, so there
are some numbers are climbing. I think up to three points, I would take the Cowboys over the Giants. I just think that this offense for the for New York is really struggling mightily and Dallas is making a serious, serious run. I'd a buddy of mine h three weeks ago tell me the Cowboys are going to win that division, and I was like, Okay, well that's probably not gonna happen. But I do think the Cowboys have a legitimate chance here to make because they can't make the playoffs? Right?
Are they alive? Still? Well? Who Cowboys? Yeah?
If the Cowboys win and Washington loses, Cowboys win, they okay, right.
Good, that's it. So, so the Cowboys know they have to win this game out right, And I just I watched them play last week and I think they're coming. I think McCarthy's got something going. I think the offense is playing pretty well for Dallas. So if I had to bet right now, I would lay the one and a half two when the Cowboys at the Giants.
My big worry about it is just that this has got to be the because everybody saw what the Cowboys look like, right, everybody saw that. They've seen how terrible the Giants are. Like the Cowboys just feel like such a public play they always are, Oh yeah, and the exact time that they let you down though, right, like this is the historical sort of like here come the Cowboys.
Here they come, and they're gonna let you down. And the Giants, meanwhile, I know they've lost, you know, several games in a row here, but Daniel Jones has not been close to one hundred percent. They've played some good teams. Yeah, you know, coming in, I think the Giants might be a little better than people think at this point. And I I'm just it's funny because I looked at it and my initial reaction was like, oh God, the Cowboys are gonna are gonna win this game, Like they're gonna
be fine. Bye. If you're giving me less than a field goal, I like it. My worry just is this. You know. It feels like the line is saying we know everybody is going to take the Cowboys and we don't care. And I agree with whether or not you think about that.
No, I absolutely, of course I do. Yeah, I mean I I completely trapped. Lines are out there, but in the Cowboys. I mean. The one thing about Vegas is I learned this in my second week of being here in Las Vegas, where I was talking to a friend of mine who who is working at the time for Sez Sportsbooks, and you know, he Matt Holt his name. He's gone on to do a lot of really cool things, but he's the one that first told me about the Cowboys in the in Vegas and I was like, what
do you mean? He's like every time we put a Cowboys lineup, we always add a point. Always doesn't matter of dogs are favorite, we always add a point because the Cowboys are the most public bet team in Vegas. So for that, I mean, and it happens all over the place, happens off sure, same place. I mean, Cowboy fans are everywhere that I do. I understand that point, you know, I think it's it's a valid point that, Okay, this line really could be like MINS one or a
pick right, so that it's okay, flip a coin. But I still think the Cowboys are the better football team, and I still think there's some problems for that offense, for the cut for the for the Giants, I just don't think that they can score.
All right, Well, let's let's put it on the maybe list, because I mean, I don't hate it. It just feels like, again, this is a bad week. This is just a very difficult week to sort of navigate because a lot of it is going to depend on, you know, who plays. I also think there's a tendency by the way of better is to think that if a team is out of it, one team's playing for something, one team isn't
playing for something. That the team that's not playing for something is just going to roll over and everything that. I don't think that that's really how it works. I mean, right, you know, it's even even the Steelers, who I kind of like, we'll we'll get to that in a little bit. Not love. But and the line is dropping unfortunately.
But this is the one week where I actually not I don't believe in parlaying. Okay, I've heard the Daily Juice, you know, I don't believe parloy this, but this is one of the weeks where money line parlays. Yeah, I don't actually mind them. Yeah, and you can take you know, Okay, do they just have to win? Like not, don't worry about the number, but do they just have to win
a football game to get into the postseason? If you can line up two, three, four of those in a row, you can find you can bring down Like you know, the Vikings are minus two ninety five on the money line against the Lions. Right, and so Matthew Stafford maybe when he plays, doesn't play, if he could be his last game with the Lions and they may be totally you know, everyone knows the Lions or cleaning house and
changing everything next year. So it's like, you know, those are the teams that you can be like, Okay, they're gonna lay down and get destroyed. Texans, maybe another one.
You don't worry about the number. You just kind of stack up a bunch of those teams on money lines and then see, you know, a bunch of minus two fifty favorites and you could probably find yourself into like, you know, two to one, three to one type of wagers that I do tend to play a little bit more in week seventeen because it is so tricky with who gets pulled when right.
So I mean, we might as well just talk about this game. It's not my favorite. I don't have a favorite really pick maybe I do, but it's not this one. But let's talk about it. Since you mentioned it, How do you feel about the Vikings link six and a half the lines, because I know there's no Dalvin Cook, I get it, but I'm going to be shocked if Matthew Stafford plays. At this point, Kenny Galley is already out. We have known who's going to be out. Chase Daniel.
As bad as bad as this defense is for the Vikings, Chase Daniel just can't really do anything. I think Kirk Cousins and the passing game is gonna have a huge day in this one in a bounce back effort. They were embarrassed. Of course, the whole team was embarrassed by Alvin Kamara scoring six touchdowns last week. I just think that the Vikings are going to destroy the Lions with Chase Daniel back there, and if it's under a touchdown for me, it's one of the games I kind of like.
And so I get this two teams not playing for anything, so you're sort of like, what are you going to see? But without Matthew Stafford as I'm expecting at this point, even if he plays, I think he gets knocked out early in the same way you saw with the Buck so sat him on the Vikings minus six and a half.
Does Jefferson have any potentially.
Over forty seven yards, I think is what he needs to. I believe set the rookie receiving record that's not a ton, so you could see him sort of have a fifty yard game. Same thing with Mike Evans. By the way, Mike Evans needs forty yards to get another one thousand yard season, which they were trying to do against the lie you saw that, they were like, definitely, just let's
just get it so we can rest the guy. So you don't know whether or not when Jefferson gets the forty seven yards whether or not they'd be like whatever. But I don't think that's a team like the Vikings. That's not what they'll do.
They'll I agree. I think one of the things to me the comments from Mike Zimmer about the defense after the loss when he was I mean, you never hear coaches say this is one of the worst defenses I've ever had, Like, I've never had a defense as bad. You don't normally hear a coach say that. What did you just say? So I wonder if going seven to
nine actually me something to him. Oh and I wonder how much of a notice he put his defense on of Like, guys, here's your last chance to put some game film before I go through the whole entire roster and start cutting half of the guys here. Yeah, so like with Chase Daniel out there, plus that, I agree with you. I think the Viking's under a touchdown or a solid play.
Yeah. So that's one of my plays this week, and you know it doesn't see I'm surprised a little bit. It's under a touchdown, and maybe if Stafford is ruled out, it'll pop to over it. So that's why I'm probably gonna bet it now, and I have bet it now at six and a half. But it is something where yeah, I think and the Vikings, they haven't quit. Their defense
is terrible, it's injured, it's just a terrible defense. But I don't see them sort of you know, you see some teams, you watch them and you don't want to say quit, But it does look like they're kind of like, Okay, I'm going through the motions. I'm not willing to really put my body online. Doesn't look like that. They're just not a very good defense, but they do have a good offense, even without Davin Cook, So I'm willing to roll with them at minus six and a half.
Okay, my second play, and I again looking for spots here yep. Week seventeen. I think there is something to a thirteen and three record for the Buffalo Bills, and I think they actually want it, and I'm gonna be curious to see we talked about earlier. I'm curious to see. I think Matt Barkley can beat the Dolphins, and I think they can do it just running, throwing, and I gotta see how many before I would bet this. I gotta see how many receivers are playing. Okay, Colby's is hurt, so that's out.
He's out. He's out, but he's out.
Is Digs playing?
I don't know the thing.
If it's yes, okay, if Diggs is playing, and the answers yes, because you know, going thirteen and three is significant. And then I want to see what the Dolphins wind up doing with Tua.
Okay, and oh you know what they're going to do with Tua. They're going to start him.
Yeah, but they may pull him if it looks like right. But if it looks like they're going to lose, do they put Fitzpatrick back in there? Or do they just leave two in there and just say, look, we're gonna be You know, Fitzpatrick may wind up playing the postseason. I have no idea what Brian Flores is doing. It is so insane what he's doing with the quarterback spot. How is this not Fitzpatrick's team? I'm saying it literally for weeks.
You know what annoys me, Matt, And it's probably because I have a pretty large investment in Kevin Stefanskiez, coach of the Air, which may have died last week given the Jets game. But the fact that people are giving kudos to Flores for the way he's willing to pull Tua and go to Fitzpatrick, like that's a positive. You have to pull Tua because Tua does not play well
and Ryan Fitzpatrick is your better option. So the fact that he's playing Tua to begin with, and I know you harped on this when it first happened to me, is mind boggling, because I think the team would be, you know, much better on offense if you just left fitz in there.
I again, I says on Twitter, people got really mad at me. I'll say it here. I believe that ownership has told Brian Flores what to do. I think ownership has said, Tua tanga a Looa is our franchise face, and I need Tua to play as much as possible and then go all the way up to the point where you're gonna lose, and then it's the break in case of emergency, Okay, play Fitzpatrick. But then the second you have a chance to put to a back in there. You do it because this is funny that he was
comparing it to a relief pitcher. This is like having like Randy Johnson out of the bullpen. Like you go and put Randy Johnson in the starting rotation, right, You don't have him in the bullpen. You use him as a starter because you need starters are more valuable. Like,
it doesn't make any sense to me. That analogy is ridiculous and it's I cannot I've tried for the life of me to justify the decisions they're being made here with Miami, and if I'm a Dolphin fan, all I can hope is that when the postseason happens, like to if he struggles in the first quarter, or if they're down at halftime or whatever, that Brian Flores has the guts to go ahead and say we're playing Fitzpatrick because
you're not winning a playoff game with Tua. I'm just call me a hater, but you're just you're not winning a playoff game with two at the quarterbacks, right.
So I guess my issue is, I guess I don't know how to what to do with this game because I don't know who's playing. I don't know whether or not the Bills are motivated to win this game. Maybe it's the thirteen and three, but again, it could be the second seed because if you're if you're the third seed, I think you're probably getting I guess it depends on what happens with the Dolphins, but you you might be
getting the Ravens. You know, they might be the sixth seed at this point, so maybe the number two seed.
Does the fans start this week or next week?
I think the fans start next week.
The playoffs because if nine thousand fans are going to be there for their playoff games, right, so that's huge. That's huge for Bill's Mafia to be able to be in that building. That's good.
I you know, I have a very soft spot for Bills fans and for Bill's Mafia because I went to school there. So I still have a lot of friends who are really investing in this. It's just it's hard for me to get a real And again, the fact that the Bills are favored in this game, I don't really know what to do with because I just if it's Matt Barkley and there's no Stefan Diggs and t Davious White, you know, doesn't play, Matt, I mean, do you still like the Bills?
Yeah, that you still do, because I think the Dolphins. I think this is a game, just speaking generally, Okay, it doesn't matter all that much for the Dolphins, and it's gonna be cold.
You're so it matters for the Dolphins, Matt. Well if they if they lose, they're probably not making the playoffs. You know that, right, because if they lose, the Ravens are gonna beat the Bengals.
Right. Okay, you're walking around through how they miss the playoffs.
Okay, Sure the Dolphins lose, Okay, they finish ten and six, okay with me, yep, the Ravens are ten and five. They're gonna beat the Bengals, right, eleven and five? Right, the Browns are playing a Steelers team that's resting all the starter.
Correct, Brown's gonna win that game.
Eleven and five. The Colts are playing the Jaguars. They're gonna beat the Jaguars. They're going to finish eleven and five. The Titans, right, yeah, are playing Detexans. If they win their eleven and five, they win the Division three playoff teams Seeds five, six, and seven, The wild card teams are the Ravens at eleven and five, the Browns at eleven and five, the Colts at eleven and five, the Dolphins. If they lose are ten and six, they're out of
the playoffs. They have to win. Huh, they have to win. So does that affect the way they have to win? If they lose and any one of those teams.
Loses, they're in. They're in. Okay, They're in. I knew there was something. I knew there was something like it looked like that they're.
All playing at the same time, and all of the teams that they're going at our favored now the Browns because their COVID concerns are slightly less than double digits, but they're favored by nine over the backups for Steelers. I think the Steelers could pretty easily win that game still,
even when Mason Rudolph. And again, that's probably gonna be one of the ones that I put out here, but I don't know what the spread is going to be by the time people listening right now, it's ten at It's dropping though, because this morning the more COVID concerns for the Browns.
Yeah, yes, it's nine in the contest.
Right, and it's nine now for the consentuves lines, and you can get it at ten. I like it. I think I still like it at nine. Remember that as bad as the Steelers were, I know we're switching jumping around a little bit here, but as bad as Steelers were, they still went eight to eight last year with Mason Rudolph. You know at the quarterback much time. You know they don't like the Browns that you know, there's certainly revenge factor, right, and.
Miles Garrett's Miles Garrett's playing right.
Yes, Miles Garrett's candn't play, so there's that. But the Browns need a win to get in against mostly backups. And the Browns are, you know, a solid team, they're they're well coached. If they have actual wide receivers, then they could do it.
So so the Bills can knock out the Dolphins, I like it. So that's just okay. Now I like even more. Okay, if the Bills can knock out the Dolphins.
They cannot get it. That's why it's really But the Steelers can knock out the Browns and it doesn't look like they're gonna go for it. It's very this is such a weird week, Matt.
Oh, It's impossible. It's it literally is for to fourmentiononal chess, you have to be in the minds, you have to be inside of the minds of the coaches as to what they really care about. I just wonder. I mean, there is that factor of like everyone's saying, okay, who is the heir to the Patriots thrown? Which I don't think is gone by the way, but it's it's now okay here it's the Bill's division, and one's like, no,
it's a Dolphins division. Well, okay, Now, it's kind of a way of flexing your muscle a little bit of a buffalo and keeping your rival out of the postseason if you beat them. So in this an area you just laid out. If you can knock the Dolphins out, I think there's some real motivation. I think Bills fans would be fired up to keep the dolphinsut of the playoffs.
Yeah, and you know, I think it is sort of This is probably not something, but the two favorites for the Coach of the Year right now for the betting markets from what I've seen, are now Brian Flores and Sean mcdermoy. So if the Bills keep the Dolphins out of the playoffs, that certainly makes a difference, you know, and they could at least somewhat be thinking about that in terms of flexing your muscle.
But yeah, I just will Can we pause on that for one second? Yeah? How is Ron Rivera winning this award?
He was up there, but they may not win the division.
I don't care if they win the division or not. And Ron Rivera was getting cancer treatment at halftime, I understand, and his play and he had an Alex Smith quarterback with you know, coming back up the most horrific legg injury we've seen, Sinceneisman. I don't even know how is this even a conversation? Brian Flores has I got a great year, But I don't get how you don't vote when you're when it's pen to paper time. How are you not voting for Ron.
Rivera because they're probably going to finish six and ten?
Okay, you know, it's incredible. That's a great run for that team.
I get it, I get it, But I mean to be like six and ten coach of the Year. I can't imagine what the lowest record for a Coach of the Year ever is. But I get it. He's up there, He's up there.
I hate that. I hate it in college basketball too because it was, you know, same thing, like Belichick should have won that award like fifteen times, right point, saman should win that award every single exactly.
Like it's funny. Yeah, we talked about it because I was in that sportsbook sort of contest about the most likely candidates, and you almost always need at least ten wins, and you almost always need to have a gain of at least three wins from one year to the next like that, that's the bottom line for it. So maybe Rivera and I'd have no problem with that.
I thought, of course as well, should be right. I mean, I think the.
Fancy is one of them. Yeah, but the loss of the Jets really hurt. If they make the playoffs, we'll see. But anyway, we're getting we're getting off topic here. Seventeen whatever we can do, whatever we want. Everybody listen, doesn't matter. It's gonna be amazing. Bill's one and a half to Dolphins. I'm fine with it. We'll put that in the baby category for sure. That that's fine to go in. But what do you think about the Steelers. I think the
Steelers are going to keep this game, Cleo. I don't think Mike Tomlin is out there ever to say I'm not. I don't care.
Oh no, I agree with that. Yeah, I mean Fanders down to eight and a half. I mean, yeah, there's stefrom steam coming in here on Pittsburgh.
It's a lot of it is COVID though, Matt, this morning there's more COVID problems, like before you woke up, there's more COVID problems this morning already.
So people are who's out anybody anybody know?
No, I mean I think Harrison Bryant, you know, head end, but that that's not a big deal. The receivers are still penned to come back.
But you know, it's just is this the third time the Browns have closed their facility?
Yeah?
Third time?
Yeah?
Like, come on, guys, what's going I mean, I know it's COVID, it's everywhere, it's horrible, but three times, yeah, Like, something's going on with the Browns that it's not great in terms of the where they're they're gods, you're behaving.
But so this strikes me as a game that probably the Browns wind up winning. Although I don't hate the money line at the on the Steelers, but that if you're getting more than that, even more than a touchdown, yeah, I mean you're getting a ten, I love it. But if you're getting more in the touchdown, I think the Steelers are going to keep this game.
Yeah. I think the nine will be that we be one of the consensus picks in the in the Westgate contest because it's plus nine and this is really large and right now is plus line Yeah it's not. Yeah, it's ten at bet mgm uh, you know on the East Coast it's still nine. And then Fan Duels got an eight and a half. They're the market low currently and I'm guessing that the number is gonna come down even more. So It's like, if you like the Steelers, you got to take them early, get take them now
to get the best number possible. But I mean, I think the Steelers should be I mean, they'll probably be included in in my two team teaser just because you get over fourteen and uh yeah, backdoor cover possibilities and there's just a lot of I mean guys in week seventeen, you know, you lose the big name guy but the fourth string and fifth string wide receiver on certain teams is good enough to be a second or a third
on some other teams. So you put it on film, you know, you show, you're showing out, you're trying to prove yourself, you're trying to justify your job, and they'll play hard. And sometimes I would prefer a third string wide receiver over a you know, fifty percent first string guy.
And don't forget when you're playing with these uh these backup quarterbacks and everything like that, they kind of have chemistry with the practice good point squad guys, right, these are the guys they know. These are the guys they work on the routes with, so good point they usually play a little bit better. So, yeah, it's a weird week though, as we Matt and I have harped on on this, it's a very weird week.
It's times plus nine. I think it's a good pick. I think that that's a good side to be on in particular because I think, you know, if the Browns are gonna brown and they and they go ten and they lose the game outright, can go ten and six?
Yeah, a ten and six Browns team where you lost to the Jets. To miss out on the playoffs is pretty brownsie. You know, that would be a pretty big year. So yeah, all right, so that's probably one of them. All Right, You got any others that you like?
I mean there's only a couple that I again, I don't love the numbers like Titans Texans, Right, you mentioned it like seven and a half, Like yuck, Like keep me six and a half? Yes, Okay, now we're talking seven and a half. I don't know what to do with that, even though my inclination is they want to bounce back after being really embarrassed. And what's really frustrating about that entire game? I mean, have you ever seen a team want to get away from the weather faster than the Titans did?
Oh no, that was weird, right, Like immediately you saw that, you're like, oh god.
They didn't even call tight. They punted. Yeah, like I had a potential back door. I mean there were chances to get I mean, I've just never seen it. It was so weird to me to watch a team because I had the over in that game was to watch them down big with three timeouts, fourth down and like it was like six, like they're on like forty yard line and they punted. I was like, what are you? Mike Vrabel ran off the field. He could not get into a warmer area faster. He wanted nothing to do
with Green Bay. And that's really weird for a power run football team. That. I mean that to me concerns if the Titans are going to play the Bills or anybody any weather potential, I will fade the Titans if they're watching that performance that.
Was It might really though it might have just been that they said. He was like, we can't stop green Bay. If they want to come down and score, they're going to be able to score. We have lost this game, Like, let's just move on, because the Colts had already lost the control their own destiny if they beat I mean teasing that. This strikes me as a game where you tease the Titans afinitely laying one and a half.
Right, like or money line or just more money line at.
Whatever you want to do, exactly like that. But that's what this strikes me to me. It's seven and a half. Yeah, because again the Tecans kept it close the last time they play. That's and kudos to the Texans and JJ Watts got that video that he's pumping everybody. You know, he's so mad at his defense. Scares me a little bit at that number.
Of Texans number, that guy's career, by the way, we're gonna we're going to look back and to shake our head and be like JJ Watt was one of the all time great awful teams his whole career.
How do you feel about the doing you know, again, going back to the Ravens on another big number. It's big number. It's twelve and a half for the consensus. But I think the Ravens are going to come out here. I think they hate the Bengals by the way they destroyed the Bengals when it was Joe Burrow earlier in the year. I think they hate the Bengals. This is their chance for a playoff. You know, if they win,
they're in. I think they're going to come out and I think they're going to be like, oh, the Bengals. You think the Bengals are playing well well, all of a sudden, you know, I think they're gonna come out and I think they're going to It's a huge number, but I don't mind laying it.
Yeah, it's the biggest number on the board. Outside the cults and the Jags. So I mean it's it's it's a, it's a it's the biggest number where I guess the culture at culture at home, right, the culture at home against Jaggs fortunate. So yeah, so it's the biggest road, you know, you know, laying twelve and a half on the road is not often great to do that, but I do I concur I agree. I think you're going to see the Ravens. We talked about this three with
three weeks ago when were sorry back in the Ravens. Yeah, this is them getting into form, right, this is them where this is almost like an exhibition game in some ways where it's like we need to work on us and if that means we score fifty, we score fifty.
Okay, we need to work on both sides of the wall. By the way, so f.
You starters are in the game, you know, if we if we need to punch in a late touchdown to work on a goal line situation, like we're going to do what we have to do to win, and that's just it. So like, yeah, yeah, I'm with it, La. I like that.
I think this is gonna be a game I don't love laying huge numbers like this, especially not on the road. It's ridiculous. But I do think that this is gonna be a game where they are just gonna come out and they are just going to be this is we're gonna you don't want to play us in the playoffs, and we're going to use this game to basically tighten
up the screws. Just Lamar Jackson. I think he by the way, not that this matters because I want to get into the playoffs, but I think he needs something like eighty seven yards rushing to get to a thousand for the season. So my guess is that you'll see a lot of him getting out there. They're just gonna I think this is just gonna be a monster performance.
Son.
I'm okay with the big number. Anything else that you're looking at, whatsoever.
Yeah, So I'm wearing so every week on the live stream, I wear different hats that I have for teams that I look to because either they're playing a game that I bet on heavily or playing a team that I hate. So I'm wearing a Packer's set. You can't see mer enough. I'm wearing a Packer set right now.
Yep.
So I'm all in green and a green T shirt and wearing a Packer. I hate the Bears because I think I'm ohing four this year on the Bears, and I have a small number here, and I got all these people telling me the Bears are going to win this game, and I as long as they don't bench and Rogers is playing right, Oh, they they still have to win, right to get the one seed.
Well, they don't have to win to get the one seed. And this is if you listen to me on the Fantasy Bros. End of year recap sort of thing. I didn't get this because I knew that they had beaten the Saints in terms of a head dead match, but because the Seahawks won. Technically, if both I believe, if both the Saints and the Seahawks win and the Packers lose, then the Seahawks would tech would get the number one seeds. So technically they need the Packers still.
Need to win, and it's the Bears, yes, and.
They want to right, and they want to beat the Bears.
They want to beat the Bears. Rogers isn't talking about how he's in love with like Soldier Field and playing there and he likes playing in the environment. He firs it with fans and what this whole idea that Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubitski are going to be back next year for the Bears. Oh, I mean, uh uh.
This is it's a it's a paraltism.
That's five and a half. I would lay it up to ten. I think the Packers are going to destroy the Bears here, and it's it's not my number one pick because it's an emotion pick.
So I like it though. I like it. I think you're right. Yeah, I think you have it correct. I think that the Bears are playing over their head and they've had a really soft schedule here that people are getting excited about. And I think that the Packers, with the level that Aaron Rodgers is playing at at this moment, ye are they could easily win this game by fourteen points without thinking too much about it at this point.
And you know, it's funny, Matt, because you saw what they did, and I think they're gonna do a similar thing right now. Is they're gonna set they sold out to stop Derrick Henry. Yeah, they know their rush defense is not good, so they said, Okay, this is what we're gonna do, especially in the cold weather, we are going to do whatever we can to stop Derrick Henry, and we're going to rely on you know, Jay or Alexander and our corners to just hold down as best
they can to pass defense by themselves. I think that you're going to see a very similar strategy here, except it's against a worse past offense. You're going to see them say, okay, Dave Montgomery, you've been having a great run. We're gonna do whatever we can to stop you. We're gonna let Mitchell Drubisky, you know, try to throw it at Alan Robinson's great, but you know who else you want to throw to Mooney or you know, Anthony Miller or the tight ends. I think that's what you're gonna see.
So I like it, man, I like it as ed minus five and a half. Let's see. How do you feel about the Bucks laying six and a half two Falcons?
I looked at it. I mean, who's got more to play for in this game?
Well, what do the Falcons have to play for?
Well? The Falcons of jobs? Right?
Yeah?
Fine? Is this Matt Ryan's last start with the Falcons? This is it is? Is he head a Disan Francis. I mean the rumors are him going to San fran You know, if Garoppolo gets cut, they move Garoppolo, and then we wind up seeing a Matt Ryan be moved, and then it's and then it's Garoppolo goes to New England and Ryan goes to San Francisco. And so is this you know, he's been their franchise quarterback. Does he want to go out one last hurrah and beat Tom Brady in the Buccaneers? I mean, you know at ten
and five the Bucks can get what seed? What's the best they can be at eleven to five? Fifth and they lose, They're the seventh.
No, So I this is my understanding, and that this is not.
Just by the way you guys listening. This year is so freaky because of the extra game, the extra team getting in only one bye week. We've never seen these tie breakers before. It's very complicated.
So here's the deal. The Saints have won the division, right, so we know that's done. So that means that the best the Bucks can do is fifth. Right, the four division winners are going to be the top four seeds. The best they can do is fifth. I believe they can fall to sixth if they lose and the Jared Goff and Cooper cup Less Rams beat the Cardinals. If that happens, the Rams would jump them and they would
go to six. Now they're not going to know because they should be playing I believe at the same time.
They played early in the Rams.
Uh late, Yes, so they won't know by the time they they won't know because the Rams. So they have to assume that the Rams are gonna win. And again, you're gonna have Kyler Murray at less than one hundred percent. You've still got that defense. So they can't take that for granted. And is there a difference between the fifth seed and the sixth seed in my opinion? Oh yeah, big time. The fifth seed is going to get the
winner of the NFC East. That team, whoever it is, is definitely going to be weaker than whoever the sixth seed is going to play.
I want my prediction to be I want my right or the Saints right. Yeah, I made a call a while ago, as you laid that out, I picked the Bucks to lose was in the first round of the playoffs to the winner of the n FC East.
Really yeah, wait, you made like a specific bet.
No, I know, but I don't mean a bet. I mean a prediction that I'm going to bet. I'm gonna bet for the Bucks to lose that game on the on the road, whoever they play, they're gonna lose. That. I said. The winner of the NFC East is gonna play the Bucks and they're gonna win. They're gonna win the game. They're gonna beat the Buccaneers because I think the Bucks are fools gold right now. To be quite asked, in the postseason, I think that blowout victory they had
was the best thing. I was so happy to see that blowout because it's gonna give us a great number when they go on the road and it's gonna be like an eight or nine. You know, Bucks are gonna be six, seven, eight, nine, somewhere in that range whoever they play. And that's beautiful for me because I think this Tampa team's got problems and no one wants to talk about them. Oh not here though, not here. I think they beat the Facings easily.
Yeah, so that I think with them being motivated at this point, they've already come out and said we're playing everybody. So it's six and a half. You know the Falcons hang around for the most part in these games, but I'd be willing to take.
Him at what did you say, Julio Jones playing.
I'm almost positive he's not. He's trying. He has he hasn't practiced yet this week. He's trying to get back out there. It'd be crazy for him to actually get back out there. So assume he's not playing. And it's just Ridley Engage and Hayden.
Hurst and they can't really run the football.
They can't run the football at all, and not against the Bocks. Yeah, I mean, I think Carlton Davis maybe I'm not sure about Carlton Davis playing. So Ridley is going to be able to to probably do some stuff, and you know they they were able to move the ball, you know Bucks.
I mean it's ugly, but I like it. Six and a half. I'm a right cool with it, all right.
Any other games that you've been thinking about or you want.
Me to, Yeah, I mean, look at the think we think we have to talk about and have to look at it. It is Washington and the Eagles, and boy Alex Smith is gonna play for Washington, right.
We think so?
Right?
We we think so all right.
If Alex Smith plays for Washington, I think the Washington football team wins this game. If it's not, though, Man, this is tough because you have the Dwayne Haskins thing. He's now gone, and I mean I did. There's just not anyone that I really could back for Washington if it's not.
Al Keller Hennegy might be better than Dwayne Haskins.
Very possible.
Yes, And Kara mclaurin's gonna play.
It.
Worries me a little bit about McLaurin because he really without him, you're talking about Cam Sims, you know, as your number one wide receiver there that I mean Thomas.
Yeah, not good. But here's the problem for the Eagles, just like we saw last week. I I just I don't think that Eagles defense is all that good.
That's terrible.
And and so I think there's a chance no matter who's out there, I think there's a chance to move the football. And you know, Gibson bane back and whatnot. And then I mean not to say that that you know, the blooms off the rose there for jam Hurts, but I think his mobility gets limited big time up against that defense line. Yeah, And I don't think he can pick up the same yardage normally. I mean he needs to run the football to be effective. I mean he's
you know, yes, his passing abilities are still lacking. He still needs more seasoning, more time. He's not you know, he doesn't have this great route tree and yeah, you know so, I don't think he's got enough in the tank there to go up against a Washington defense that's been playing pretty well. So I would like Washington to win this game outright in prime time they go seven and nine. So if Washington wins, it goes seven and nine.
What happens? I'm sorry say it again.
So Washington wins the game outright? Yep, they win the division? Yes, and they're in correct. Yeah. I like Washington there.
Okay, I don't. I don't hate it. I I My only worry with it. My only worry with it is that this is the last game of the year for the Eagles. You're as much as Doug Peterson I think has done a pretty terrible job with Carson Wentz at least, you know, in the way they call the games everything like that. I think you're gonna see as many ricks as can be pulled. Sure in this game, but I
agree with you that that defense is very strong. This is the last game, right, this is Sunday night game or whatever, so they that's why they did it that way, because no matter what else happens, Washington wins and they're in.
Yeah.
I don't, I don't. I don't hate it. I originally when I looked at it, I was like, I think the Eagles might, but yeah, I think, you know, at this point, I think that's probably right. I like Washington. All right, let's get it there, Okay, any other ones you want to talk about before I run through the remaining games.
No, I mean, you know, I I am selfishly I need the Raiders to beat the back.
I'm aware I was going to ask you about that. I know you need them for your feet. Yeah, because I was looking and you know, putting together the five hundred bets that you have made on the Daily Juice podcast so I can get your win.
Loss and more than I'm seven hundred now, I think whatever.
Right, I was looking at it, I was like, oh, here's one that's still outstanding that I can't technically count yet.
For it's the last future. We went five and one going into them four one or five and one on the futures in the NFL. So we did quite well with our future bets, but this is the last one that's outstanding, and it's a push currently because I got seven right, so I got slight plus money. And if you remember back way back in July, when we didn't have sports to bet on all that much, it was I talked to a bookmaker in Vegas who at that point had not taken a single under bet on the Raiders under seven.
Like literally every single bet was on the over. So there is a monster liability for the books here when it comes to this game, Like they are pulling so hard for the Broncos, then they don't like refunds. But seven and a half was a number that closed a lot of places around Vegas. It was seven and a half. I got it early in the summer, so it was seven, but it was seven and a half for a lot
of places. So Raiders lose this game to the Broncos, it's gonna be a nice windfall for different different books around around the strip. So I mean the Raiders, gosh, I mean they they have to be able to win this game. But it's it's a mile high. It's just it's such a tough place to go play and have to win, and it does doesn't mean anything like it only means it's a football game, so you want to win it, but there's no playoff implications. It's this is this is so hard. I mean, my gut says Raiders
can win it, but I don't know. I mean that's yeah. My My problem is I need it, so I'm a little biased.
Right, No, I'm I'm actually the exact I don't need it, but I'm in the exact same situation in terms of how I view it. This everything to me says like the Raid, the Raiders are a better team than the Broncos, Like I don't have much doubt about that. Yeah, it says to me like they should be able to win this game. But in Mile High always scares me no matter what, nothing really to play for. It just makes
me just makes me too hesitant. But awesome, I'm gonna be investing in the Raiders because I'm invested.
In you in your future, so I very well might be in this and on this simply personally, just you know, as a money line. You know, if you do one of these money line parlays we made to have the Raiders be a part of it. It's a small line at two and a half, so it's not horrible if you want to just lay it and I think they're gonna win the game. But like, does Waller have any I gotta look at something. I wonder if Darren Waller has any incentives because I didn't.
I didn't see it. I've been trying hard to uh keep track of that if I can. I didn't see anything there.
But I mean he because if he's the key to their entire team. So like, if Waller has a reason to ball and go out and have a two hundred, I got.
I got one ready. Yees, six six catches from the single season record.
They're going to force feed that. Okay, that's happening. So Waller's a prop bet reception over there?
We go, Yeah, by the way, right, let's have some fun on prop bets this way. Yeah, you probably got all this sort of stuff to get there. But yes, apparently six receptions. There's somebody on on Twitter. I'll give me a shout out, Anthony Amico or amiccot at A M I C S T A. He has been listing all the notework the milestones slash bonuses the players can reach in week seventeen.
So what's the handle again at.
Amic style, which is a M I. C. S T. A Anthony Miko or Amigo. He's a good follow on Twitter, but he's been keeping track.
Yeah, because that's well, yeah, that's big. That's a Waller. You know, probably five and a half receptions probably will be set at and maybe he might be six and a half, knowing the books are probably gonna be aware of that, so maybe six and a half, but I still would bet the over there they're going to force feed Waller and get to get him the receptions record.
So that's one thing I would look at. And so you know, if he's running down the sidelines with forty fifty yard receptions because he could, then yeah, okay, the Raiders very well might be in there. And you know, Derek Carr has a lot of pride. He's trying to prove himself. He's trying to say, this is my team. And you know, we're going to the fact.
That he played last week and played well. Yeah, given you know, the the growing, you know, strain that he had is pretty remarkable in and of itself.
And I do think the team wants to doesn't want to end a year on back to back losses and losing. It would be they would have lost. I think there were seven and three at one point, so they go seven and nine. They have lost the last six games, right, right, So.
I think that's right.
I don't think they want to go out like that on that type of losing streak, and you know, being in a playoff contention to just falling flat on their face like that. So them and the Patriots are both are in the in this spot where I just wonder I wouldn't touch the Patriots game, but just I'm wondering if they've got this we can't go out like that.
Attitude, So what do you. Let's talk about the Patriots real quick. So you just they're laying three to the Jets in New England.
Just I could see the Patriots lose that game by twenty. Yeah, I could see this. I could see everyone's coming for this. You know that this is the lion that has a broken leg. Okay, everyone's coming for him. Everyone wants a piece, they all. I mean, this is the only thing that's interesting about this game that leads me to believe the Jets might not do that is that Adam gaze is rumored to be joining the Patriots' staff.
Okay, but is that rumor really just based on Bill Belichick being like, Oh, I think Sam Darnold has gotten the best coaching that he possibly could have gotten. I mean, is that or is there actual rumors about them?
There's actual rumors that he could be joining the Patriots as an offensive There's rumors that Josh McDaniels is going to go and take a head coaching job and that, and then the Patriots would hire Adam Gasee to be the offensive coordinator.
I mean, you're available, Matt, why don't they hire you as the offensive coordinator instead of Adam Gates?
You know, I don't, look, I'm not a football mind. I can't tell you that if the offense is being run properly and it's the quarterbacks problem, or it's a receiving problem, or I don't know. Gates is a horrific leader, He's a horrific head coach. He's been that way. And I made the joke that maybe maybe the Saban rehab tour is going to come to the NFL and all these former head coaches are going to go work for Bill Belichick to get the to rehab their image and
then go on and do something else. I mean Steve, Steve Sarkesian for the Forbama. You know he was he's obvious an alcoholic still, but he had all problems off the field, and now he's like the hottest name in coaching right now to get go to the job because of what he's done with with with Mac Jones and Alabama. So maybe you can turn the tide if the Patriots get a quarterback, if it's Matthew Stafford who comes in, which I would be all in on. Uh, you know,
you get Stafford, you get Adam Gase. I mean maybe you changed the topic and change the conversation. But I just I don't know, man, Yeah, I could see that.
I'm not going near that. Yeah, I just bring back to the game. I'm not going near it. I think the Jets might win, but I can never underestimate how much Belichick hates the Jets, so I never really want to get there.
Sinham starting, I don't know.
I don't think it matters, man, Matt. I think Cam Newton's terrible, but I think Dared Sidham's pretty terrible.
From what I would agree, I mean, he but I wonder what I want is I want the narrative to be over. If you gave Art's sid him an entire week to prepare, like this is your week, kid, right, and then he goes off against the Jets and he loses and looks bad. It ends the conversation about who Jared Stinham is going to be for the Patriots. It's no longer He's not the guy. I mean, it's just done.
And I think you've seen throughout the course of the year why he's not playing and cam is it's because the team knows he's not very good and they learned that as they went as they were like, uh oh, he really can't like he thought he might, but he really can't. So they're going to bring in a bunch. And that's where I just think. I mean, put this way, the Patriots may have a chance to bring back both Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy Garoppolo next year. Yeah, like that's possible.
They could bring it. They could bring both quarterbacks back that they had, not that they will, but I think they could bring Garoppolo back if they if they have to have a chance to do it. If the forty Nunders do release him, so I just I would rather if it was Stinham, I might back the Patriots, but with Cam, I can't the Patriots. I just it's no and you have to run the football for the Patriots, and the Jets are decent and stop in the run.
Yeah, that's the one thing the Jets do fairly well. But yeah, I'm not really going near that game. Just I think the Jets might win, but I'm not betting it. How about the what do you think about the Seahawks laying six to the forty nine ers.
Look, this is a game with the Niners that they play hard. I'd be concerned and I think the numbers too heavy. Personally, I think Seattle wins the game. But I think if I was a back aside on this, I would take the six points.
Yeah, I think I would too. I like the under. I have it at forty six. You know, I go and you can get the picks on betting press because I think there's just gonna be one of those kind of close games. I kind of do like the Niners, but the Seahawks they do still have something to play for, of course, because they can win it. So I'm probably not going near it. But I agree that if there
is a side, the forty nine ers. But the bet I like in this game if there is one, is the under on the forty six when I got it, because I do think that this is gonna be a game where both teams are gonna run and control the clock, and you know you've got all the offensive pieces out for the forty nine ers. But yeah, I agree, I would.
Prefer the game not being in Arizona.
Though, yes, it's an Arizona, right, Yeah, I.
Would prefer not being there because that leads to more offense. If it was in sam fran I would be one hundred percent of the under.
But it's a good point. Good point, very good point. How about the Chargers laying three and a half to the backup Chiefs.
I don't know what to make of that. That just feels like the Casey's punting on the game.
Right, Yeah, so like completely punting.
Can the Chargers win a game at Arrowhead and the weather outside? I mean, I mean, here's the question, how does Anthony wit Lynn manage to win this game by three points and not cover? That's my question? Right, He's not gonna come, you know, he's not covering Like Anthony Lyn's not going to do anyone a favor on the way out the door. He's not going to cover against Kansas City, right, So, like, how does he backdoor lose by if they win the win by three, they won't the hook there matters.
Yeah, Yeah, I don't want it. I just don't. This is a type of game where I'm like, I'm staying away. I'm not going anywhere. Second Cardinals laying three to the Rams.
Look, something tells me that Rams are gonna win that game. Now, I'm not touching it, Okay, because I've been way off on this, But McVeigh has been talking about this backup quarterback like it's his son, like he likes this kid a lot, and and supposedly he says that ninety percent of the playbook is in for the Rams here, So no, Kyler Murray's not gonna be one hundred percent, It's gonna be a you know, seventy five eighty percent. I don't know.
I just think after the Rams away they've played recently, I wouldn't put it past them. If the Rams win and go ten and six, are they they in?
If the Rams win and go ten and six, they are in.
Yes, so they got to win to get in correct.
This is a game basically for the playoffs, so.
It's a home dog with a win to get in scenario. Yes, how do we not take the Rams there?
Because they have no running back and they have no quarterback. That that's the only way.
Huh. So you need the defense to make a bunch of plays. Yeah, and they are fully healthy at defense. Yes, I'd buy the half a point, go three and a half. I'd lay it, would I would take the three and half, not late, Sorry, I take the three and a half. Sorry, I would. I would take Rams plus three and a half if it gets there. I know one book fandels at three and a half right now, but everybody else is at three points bets is three even money, So they don't want to get they don't want to get
off of it. It looks like there's Chargers that there's Cardinals money coming in though, So let the public bet the Cardinals and take the Rams late.
Okay, I like it. I like where your heads are. Actually, yeah it is. It's at three and a half right now on DraftKings.
For the ramsay, so so that hook matters for me. It's two and a half in the Westgate Contest. I will not be playing that. I probably would take that. I may do. The Cardinals are two and a half. I think I think it's a big I think it's one of those games where it's going to be nip and tuck coming down. I would expect both quarterbacks to make mistakes. I think both defenses need to rise up. One thing that drove me nuts and I'm wondering is it a Jared Goff thing or a Sean McVay thing.
But the amount of horizontal running that this team that the Rams do on offense drives me crazy. Now everything is a is a bubble screen or a jet sweep or a toss. I mean, they just don't go north and south enough. And it drives me crazy with with with Jared Goff the quarterback spot, So I wonder with the backup do they throw the ball more vertically? Can they throw the ball vertically more? Can they be more north and south against the Cardinals? I guess we'll find out.
Is it the offense or is it golf?
Yeah? I don't know. I you got if you talked me into taking the Rams plus three and a half, I'm gonna be really mad at you because I'm just I'm not ready, not ready to do it. I have no idea what we just wait.
I think public money is coming into the Cardinals.
I think I know, of course it is.
Of course, I think the line is gonna be higher. I think the lines.
Well, I'm on draftings right now, I'm looking at it, and over the last hour it has moved to three and a half. That so you're you're right. I mean, this is man.
To watch it. I mean you you might get four, you might get, but you might get more. I mean it's a it's a home dog in a must win situation. I mean, it's just I don't really care. I mean again, if this backup kid can be at eighty five to ninety pero of the playbook, okay, I mean I don't I know. The running back situation is horrible. You got third string running backs back there. Who is Henderson? Who's running?
No, Henderson's out, He's on ir It's gonna be Malcolm Brown, assuming that Cam Akers can't come back, which I'm assuming at the moment.
So but if he does come back, does that change your opinion? Maybe?
Maybe? I don't know. I don't know enough about Walford. You know, I just don't know enough about him, like they do, be really tough to back.
Them at every RAMS person I follow says this kid can play.
Okay, but I mean who knows.
But everyone everyone covers the Rams says, if you think the offense is not gonna work because of the backup quarterback, you're wrong. Like all right, I mean, oh.
Man, okay, all right, Well again, Darren Goff has you know, rarely impressed me anyway, So we'll maybe.
Sir, teaser three and a half, four and a half get to ten RAM plus ten at home, right, all right, all right.
Austin, already, I'm gonna give my teaser at the end of this because I do have a two team the patented paral two team teaser six on the year you're crushing, man, I'm gonna I've just made mine as we were doing this, I was betting it on draftings as we were talking through this. Sometimes this helps my process. I have just bet it. I will give it at the end. Let's finish up the last two games that we haven't talked about. Colt slaying fourteen to the Jaguars in Indianapolis.
I mean, I just think this is a game they win, right, that don't cover?
Right? I don't. I don't. I don't think that it's something where I could feel comfortable.
It feels like a twenty to three type of game where yes, they just do enough to win, the Jags do nothing, and then it's just an ugly awful Week seventeen slop fest. Yes, and like, okay, maybe one bounce of the ball, the Jags lose it by twenty to tw ten and you lose your bet. So like, no way, you can never beat the Jaguars or the Colts in this game.
I agree. And finally the Saints slank six and a half to the Panthers.
So this is an interesting game for me because I want to tease. This is a game I want to tease down and take the Saints. Yep, just because the Saints have to win this game, right, like going But will they know they're They don't.
They don't have to. I think the only way they get the number one seed is if they the Packers have to lose, right guaranteed, and they have to win and the Seahawks have to win. That's the only way they get it. So they lose the Seahawks have to win because if it's a head, this is my understanding.
It's a three headed monster.
Right now, I had to head with the with the Packers, they lose a three a three way tie.
They win, okay because that third Yeah, okay, and that's right. I'm receive Krannaky doing that. Yeah, I would, just I mean, if I played this, tease, just tease down to a point, say it's gona win the game, that's all.
I don't even like it. I don't like it. I mean, the Panthers are down. Every running back, not even Mike Davis is playing in this one. Right, I don't even know. But it's Steady Covers. I don't know who knows. I just i'd stay away from it, all right, Matt. So we'll have our five official picks. Here are the ones that are under consideration right now. Vikings lank six and a half to the Lions, yep. The Steelers getting nine
from the Browns yep. The Ravens laying twelve and a half to the Bengals, the Packers laying five and a half to the Bears, the Bucks laying six and a half to the Falcons, Washington laying one and a half to the Eagles, Bills laying one and a half to the Dolphins, the Cowboys, I think it was right laying two and a half to the Giants, and maybe the Raiders laying two and a half to the Browns.
Were way too many favorites.
No, no, that's fine.
Yeah.
So I like the Steelers, you know that, Okay, getting nine and a half? Yeah, you're okay with that? Yep, okay, very good. All right, what else do you like? You like the Packers, right, you're big on the Packers.
Yeah, I like like I like the Packer Kers and the Vikings both to be go out to be home.
Okay, let's get those, Okay, So there we go. So the other ones are I mean, I like the Ravens, but that's a big number, of course.
Yeah.
Washington basically just needs to win the game.
Yeah, I like, I like Washington. There. I wish it was a dog though, man, that's I got.
Well, we don't have any other dogs, man, Like that's it. It's it's it's the Steelers.
I guess. I mean, there is some logic to laying favorites in Week seventeen, just because of the fact that there are teams who need to win and at this point, the books have all the algorithm data that they need right to come up with and tell you who is going to be you know, where the money is going to go and where people are going to get into. Yeah, but I've gone I've done more study into why lines are made where they are this year than I ever
have before. And it is a fascinating year because in Las Vegas, in the month of November it was the most profitable month in the history of Vegas, and nine out of every ten bets made were one in the NFL by the books. Wow, okay, ninety percent wagers in the NFL were won by the books.
Holy cow, that's insane.
The public got annihilated this year in the NFL. Just week after week after week, they got killed. The only thing that really hurt the books was two team teasers, and a lot of people did very well, including myself on two team teasers. But other than that, I mean like literally everything else. So the lines this year have been super sharp, and they've dangled in from of the
public without fans in the stands. I think that's when we look back on the NFL year, I think that's gonna be the most difficult thing for all of us to realize is that fans in the stands really did play a pretty big factor in how these games went and just straight up playing football without any real influence of an environment. The books took advantage of us, of everyone pros and Joe's I.
Got one for you then? Are you ready?
Now?
Technically the consensus line is at three, but it hasn't as the DraftKings just moved. Why don't we just take the Rams getting three and a half against the Cardinals? Yes, love it, Okay, okay.
It's two and a half for me in my contest, but let's take it.
Yeah, all right, So that'll be our official five plays, even though again we don't have a contest. Yes, but it's the Vikings laying six and a half the lines, the Steelers getting nine. It's nine or nine and a half, but we'll do it at nine to the Browns, the Packers length five and a half to the Bears, Washington Lane one and a half to the Eagles, and the Rams getting three and a half from the Cardinals.
Two dogs, three favorites, right, yeah, I like two dogs.
Tore your favorites, yes, and one of the favorites is Washington, which is a point and a half.
Yes, like it.
You go with that. Go all right, and let me tell you the two team teasers that I bet while we were doing this as we were talking through it is h and again this is on DraftKings because I'm in New Hampshire sale place. Second bet the Steelers. I'm teasing them up from which is currently plus nine two plus fifteen like it, and the Titans. I'm teasing down from seven and a half to laying one and a half.
Like.
That's my two team teaser. It's at minus one twelve. By the way, didn't two team teasers Matt used to be at minus one forty last year. Well, but whenever.
I are shopping, books are trying to attract different business. Interesting, So the Westgate in Vegas is miss one forty. Circa in Vegas is the low at mass one twenty five. That's why I bet all my two team teasers at Circa Sports. What is DraftKings offering it at?
This? One is at minus one twelve. I had another one that I did. Yeah, last it's mostly been at minus one twenty for me. Yes, so minus one twelve I don't know, But.
So Johnny Avello in Week seventeen is trying to entice people to bet teasers. Yeah, which is scary to.
Me, to be honest, it is scary what I saw it was minus one twelve. I sort of had the moment. But I feel very, very confident that the Titans are going to beat the Texans. I don't feel confident about seven and a half whatsoever. Right one and a half close to a pick them. I feel confident that they're going to win that game by you know whatever, more than you know a point. So I have that, and I'm very big on the Steelers not getting come I
mean over you know, fifteen points. I'm confident the Steelers are gonna be able to keep this game close. I'll take the extra six, so I feel I feel pretty pretty good about it. So that's my two team teaser. Matt will get you'll give your two team teaser. I assume on the daily juice like you always do.
As always, we will have well, I may have two this week just because this is a we have no Thursday night football, we have no Monday night football, no Saturday football. We got sixteen games on Sunday. It is one of the best eating and lounging days of the year, so I may have a couple, I may have a bit more action than normal, so maybe two teams well, and the year with a couple of two team teasers excellent.
And again don't forget Sunday morning, we're still doing the live stream and then for the first round the playoffs, Matt, We're good on that. We're gonna do a half hour live stream on Saturday before the games and then a half hour live stream on Sunday. That's at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros, so you can get all your little great you know, last minute advice you can get from Matt. Don't forget to join again Discord, which is nuts, Matt. What is it twenty five hundred.
Something like that. Yeah, I mean it's it's just during games there's about three hundred people, you know a night who are in there chat. Yeah, and I mean some really funny stuff comes up, something I don't even like. It's become its own little community. I mean, they're betting on Chinese basketball, so I mean, yeah, go figure.
Yeah crazy, Okay. So also we are going to we're trying to cook up something special for you guys for the Super Bowl. We're working on that. We'll be back with more on that, but in the meantime, enjoy the last NFL betting weekend of the regular season. There's gonna be a ton of great playoffs stuff, and Matt and I will talk to you here next week