Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I am your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It's week seventeen. It's time to talk about some of our best bets. With me to do that is Scott Bogman. He's the co host of In This League podcast. You know him from the Betting Pros College Football Show and pretty much from everywhere. Find him on Twitter at Bogman Sports. Bogwin. Thank you for taking time out of your busy day
to pop on this pod. How are you.
I'm doing great, man, Thank you for having me. I love talking to anything NFL always so yeah show.
And we like talking to each other anyway, just because you know we've been on each other's podcast. It's good time. It's always fun. So long as we pick WINNERDS Bogman, that's all anybody cares about. Trust me. I can tell from the comments Center Tube channel, so don't worry about it.
I know from some of the emails I've got all right.
So look usually, by the way, you guys have noticed the last two weeks, we have not done the look Ahead podcast like the early one just to take an early look at the lines. One of it was because it was just Christmas and getting people's hard. But right now with the COVID situation, man, like, is one.
Hundred guys came off the COVID list today? Yeah, because it's.
Getting a little easier obviously because of the fact that they change the protocol now, so like guys being put on. But now at this point, Bagman, I think if people get put on the list, they're out because you still need the five days, so this may still change things. We'll do the best we can, wait as long as possible to make your bets as full. Yes, my general recommendation. All right, usual deal, three best bets of the weekend spreads totals, money line, whatever you want to do. Then
we'll run through the remaining spreads. Don't forget to subscribe to our YouTube channel. You can be watching this podcast over at YouTube dot com slash betting Pros. Then go to betting Pros dot com slash helmet. Very quickly you can win a sign Saquon Barkley helmet and our latest offer from bet MGM new customers ten dollars two hundred dollars. If your team scores a touchdown again. That's for new customers.
Use the code Juice one hundred. That's available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona, Nyoman. Let's quickly do the recap of last week. Our guest Pat Fitzmorris took an over so you can only go up here bo. Yeah, it was a bad one. He was very upset about it, by the way. The one thing I will say about Pat is Pat takes this to heart more than anybody I know. Like he is
like I can help believe it, blah blah blah. But he is a great on the prop bets for sure, and he's he's still been running hot on that, so make sure you check out his article at bettingpros dot com.
But he missing the Chargers were one.
The Chargers were one. Yes, yes, the.
Chargers didn't miss on that. You know, everybody that was bad.
I don't know, man, anytime you're a double digit spread, though, it always makes me just you know whatever, It makes me tough this sort of take out. He also missed on the Seahawks playing six and a half to the Bears and the under forty three and a half points in the Bills Patriots, so he really wasn't close on
any of them. I went two and one. Officially, I hit on the Bills getting two and a half from the Pats, the Raiders giving one to the Broncos, and I missed on the Ravens who were getting three to the Bengals. I did say, wait as long as possible, and then after that everybody was declared out and it was Joshahnson. But admittedly that game they would have probably lost.
They didn't lose because of Josh Johnson.
That's correct. They would have lost regardless of who was that quarterback. So I will take the l on that regardless, even though I did buy out of it, to be fair. Once everything moved, I'm now basically an even twenty four and twenty four in the year. So very exciting there. All right, Bogwin, you're our guest. You get to lead us off here. We just by the way, I just found out Bogwin's picks right before this, because I don't want to overlap on him, and I will say that
one of them was my picks. I'm very excited about it bogwin, start us off anywhere you want. What do you got?
Give me the Los Angeles Rams minus three and a half on the road against those Baltimore Ravens. And the reason I like the Rams in this game is number one, desperation. They need wins, right, They need to keep the Cardinals at arm's length here, so they they need this win. And just the patheticness of the Ravens defense that we saw last week. And it's not And I've hit this part home because I'm a Steelers fan and everybody knows
that I don't like the Ravens. I don't like the Bengals, I don't like the Browns, right, So I get it. But it's not the Ravens' fault that they're bad. It's not like their best skill position players are playing terribly. They are down to guys off the street playing quarterback. Anthony Averrett, who was terrible, who was third in the league in yards given up, just had surgery and is out for the year. And they were starting that guy.
So now Chris Westry and some other scrub are starting in the defensive backfield for them, and Chuck Clark hasn't been great all year, he's smart and he's the play caller for them, but he hasn't been great in coverage. So I just expect the Rams to sit and pick the Ravens apart, and I think they win by way more than three and a half, even on the road. Lamar's GIMPI we don't know what the offense is gonna look like, especially with this bust offensive line against erld
Aaron Donald and company. I just don't see a way that the Ravens come away with a winning this game. So give me the Rams and I'll lay the points.
My hesitation with it, bagman, is don't you think this spread begs you to take the Rams? Like I mean, you look at the Ravens right now. Their secondary, like you said, is just an embarrassment and nothing to them, Like they're just dealing with incredible amount of injuries and kudos to John Harbaugh for keeping them together as long as they have. But like I look at this and I'm like, of course I'm taking the Rams. You know, a team like the Rams, it gets me.
I just they know they laid some eggs. They have.
The Tennessee game after Derrick Henry got hurt was a huge eg but I think they're past that point in the season. And you know, some of it was growing pains with Matthew Stafford and mcveighe it's getting on the right page. But you saw him get on the right page last week. And it looks like they've been building.
Obviously.
Henderson is down, but cam Akers is back now and Sony Michelle is in a bang up job placing Henderson as well. So and I know they lost Robert Woods, but god, ob jay like the offense is starting to click now. And yes, it is a little bit of a bait game, but I think it started out at three and it's because well, Lamar Jackson is going to play, and Lamar Jackson makes the Ravens a different team, but he doesn't help their defense.
Guy can't.
I mean, he probably could play corner, but they're not going to put him out there to play corner, especially as campy as he is. So I understand your hesitation because the Rams have looked wishy washy this year, but I think they're.
Locked in right now. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see the line move. I guess in favor then, because it's true. And again we Lamar misspractice we're recording this on Thursday, Mispractice today, So his best bet is really Gimby. Other than that, you're looking at Huntley and you know who is off the COVID Reserve nineteen list obviously, but that's you know. I'm glad he played a great game in the one that he did against the Packers, but it's really hard to rely on them. So yeah, I
get it. I'm probably not gonna bet at myself, but certainly there's no way I could back the Ravens in this spot. I'm gonna go Bogmin and I gotta lead with your with your boys, with your team, who I imagine you're not too happy with right now, but I'm gonna take them here, Bogman, get in three and a half against the Browns. I assume it is. Actually I'm gonna double check, make sure it's still at three. It's still three and a half. I'm taking them three and
a half. And Bogman, you're a fan of the Steelers. You know the classic Mike Tomlin spots, of course, and this is one of them where you are left for dead. You're coming off a horrific performance, You're an underdog. You back Tomlin as an underdog. Yeah, Backham as an underdog late in the season. You back them as a home dog, like, that's just what you do. It's a second divisional game here.
Those games are always tight, like, regardless of anything, regardless of the disparity among the teams, a second divisional game is almost always tight. It's Ben's last game. There's my garage door. Everybody knows who listens to the podcast still still going. Don't worry about it. Every podcast doesn't matter. It will happen. Okay, so it Ben's last game in hinz Field all but confirmed as of today. They are terrible. Of course, they look parable against the Chiefs, but the
Chiefs are really really good, especially at home. Like Baker Mayfield's not playing great. He just had the four pick game. Kevin Stefanski. I came across the stat on Twitter. Admittedly I did not find in myself Kevin Stefanski in divisional games is one to nine against the spread, which I
did not know. Came across it verified it. So that's crazy. Now, look the on paper, you're like, okay, great, let's take a great running team like the Browns and let's put them against one of the worst rush defenses in all football with the Steelers. That's not good. But Pittsburgh's thirtieth in defensive DVOA against the run thirty first in defensive DVOA against the run is the Packers who still just managed to beat the Browns here. So again, I don't
love the Browns, Bogman. It really is like I think Mayfield is just, you know, considering all the injuries stuff like that, not playing well. I think this is just a spot where Tomlin somehow figures out a way to get them up off that loss. Would you with the hook? I wouldn't love it at three, although I'll probably bet them on the money line too, just because I do that always with a short home dog. But getting the hook, Bogwin, I like it. Talk to me about your team.
I mean, you know it's they're not good.
I'll say, this is one of the worst Steelers teams I've ever seen, But the worst Steeler team I ever seen is about an average Browns team, you know, so, and that's.
What you know.
The Browns are probably better than the Steelers right now. But you know, all the stuff that you just said, you got to take in consideration. Ben's teammates playing for his pride in this game, because his regular season record against the Browns is twenty five to three and one in his career. So you know, I'm picking the Steelers too.
I never bet the Steelers because I find that to be bad luck for me and I hate losing twice, you know, losing in my real life with my team and then my mom too, So I just never find that to be good luck. They do match up well here the Browns against Pittsburgh because they are running team against a bad running defense. But in the divisional games, things get weird, especially in AFC North divisional games. I mean Cleveland was clicking on all cylinders early earlier in
this year they played Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh won fifteen to ten, you know, so just it doesn't make any sense sometimes this rivalry. So I'm definitely taking the Steelers at home with his teammates playing for him in his very last home game for Ben.
So I'm just going to be shocked, man, I'm going to be shocked if they not. I could see them losing.
I think if Cleveland wins, they blow the doors off Pittsburgh. I don't think it's every close win. I think if Cleveland wins, it's going to be just like the playoff game last year. They come in, they stunned the Steelers and then they're stunned for the rest of the game. With something like that, I don't think it's going to be a down to the wire win for Cleveland. I think if it's down to the wire, I would favorite Pittsburgh.
The craziest thing, Bagman, is that both of these teams at this point like could be this could be a fight for the division. That's right.
Yeah, yeah, they're both in playoff contention still somehow with the terrible seasons that they're having, and they're both you know, not good. But we've seen weird stuff happen in the playoffs. So all you got to do is get in, get into the playoffs, and that's the goal for everybody right now.
I think if the Chiefs beat the Bengals and the Browns control their own destiny to win the division, I think that's what it is. And the Steelers if they win and then the Bengals is next week, and then the Steelers. If the Browns beat the Bengals next week, win the division for.
The Steelers to win the division, but they can still get a wild card.
Yeah, correct, Yeah, the Bargers.
Are playing the way the Ravens are playing, and the Browns and everybody in front of them is not good except for maybe Miami. Yeah, it's that last seed is up for grabs for sure.
Spoiler alert. I do not expect Miami to win this game, which we'll talk about in a little bit, but yeah, I will. I Everything about this points to the Steelers here and again, there have been games where I've been like, this is almost spot, I love it, and then they I think against the second game against the Bengals where I was like, oh, this perfect spot, second divisional game, and then they just got their brains beat in That
happens obviously on occasion. If they go in here on Monday night the Browns and beat the crap out of the Steelers, I'm just I'm just gonna be totally floored by it. So give me a Steelers getting the three and a half. Go to your number two pick here, Boga.
I'm gonna stay in the same game I just mentioned. I'm gonna take the over for the Rams and Ravens as well. Like you said, Lamar, looking GIMPI probably better for the over because I'd rather have a healthy Tyler Huntley in there than a fifty percent Lamar Jackson, which looks like it's going to trend towards that way. But like I said, the Rams are going to get most of this. I think the Rams score five touchdowns, so it's thirty five of this forty six and a half
of the over here. So we're asking the Ravens to score twice two touchdowns, and I think they can do that, even if it's in garbage time. You know, Betting the over is frustrating sometimes because what you do is you look at that first half and you go, all right, well, they're not pacing. They're not pacing at all. You know, everybody does this. Everyone who the over goes this pace is not right. They're off the pace, you know. But also you got to remember more points scored in the
second half, right, Defenses retired in offenses make adjustments. Right, So then in the third quarter you're like, okay, all right, okay, And in the fourth quarter you're getting closer and closer until you eventually hit it or you know you don't. But in the fourth quarter you have a pretty good idea. But I do I expect the Rams to pick the Ravens defensive part, and I think they get the majority of this over. And I think both these teams, you know, no one is great as far as their record on
over unders. Right, the best record for over unders is nine and six this year Philly, the Jets, Minnesota all nine and six. The Rams are eight six and one, so they have the best record in playing second best record in playing towards the over this season. The Ravens are eight and seven. So you know, these are two teams that hit the over more often than most other teams in the NFL, so I think this lends towards that over as well. Plus just the bad state of
this Ravens secondary. So giving the Rams over and the Rams and lay the points, I like bet on that game this week. Yeah, against the Ravens too. It's fun.
Sure, why not just go Ravens every single time? This was one of my picks, Yes, I agree, I had it, which I was like, oh, interesting, because usually we're able to share picks beforehand, you and I weren't. You were like, oh, I'll just tell you what they are, and I'm like, I'm sure we don't overlap. And that was oddly enough, the one over under that I had. I agree with you completely in this one. I think the Rams are
going to put up a ton of points. Again, talked about it when you talked about the spread, just the secondary. They're just going to be able to pass all over them. And I do think you're right. I don't expect Lamar Jackson to go at this point. I think when you're out there and you're really, really gimpy and then you're a DNP the next day like that just can't be good.
And I think it's better for the Ravens offense then if you have a fully healthy Tyler Huntley with the entire week to prepare and really multiple weeks at this point, rather than a gimbie Lamar Jackson. So I agree with you over forty six and a half, I will adopt your play. My next pick, bog when is the Titans length three and a half to the Dolphins. This is much more about a fade of the Dolphins. Dolphins streak
when you look at it, it's been really remarkable. It's just basically beaten the worst teams in the history of football with when you consider the quarterback play other than the real I mean in book would look almost ready for like a pee wee football game. But yeah, it was not. It was not close. Yes, I mean, you think about it. It's the Texans, the Jets twice, the Panthers, the Giants with Glennon, the Saints with Book, and the Ravens. That game on Thursday was very impressive. With the Ravens,
I admit on that one. But you know, they're just I don't think they're a very good football team. Overall, They're fine. Pro Football Reference Bagman has a rating system which shows basically that the Dolphins are two points worse than the average football team. The Titans are two and a half points better than the average football team. So if you gave that credence and you put that together, it be four and a half points spread on a neutral site. This is a three and a half point
spread in Tennessee. I think with AJ Brown back, And again we have to watch this because Julio Jones was placed on the COVID nineteen reserve list. If Brown gets put on it, I'm off this game obviously entirely. But obviously Julio make come back now that matters. You saw what AJ Brown can do and I get.
Save how good he was a practice in oh, like whatever, what eight weeks or whatever, a practice and a half.
That's it.
I was like, I'm not starting to Ancient Brown. I'm not brave brave now Fryan tannels like like garbage the whole year. And then he just went crazy against the Niners on Thursday night.
Now I mean without without Mosley, Like their secondary is terrible anyway, I get it. But I was completely with you. And again we do fantasy as well, and I ranked AJ Brown and when I was like sort of doing my projection, it was like, there's just no way he's going to get enough snaps at this point. But what was great about that bagman is at some point it was like it was like somebody getting on a heater with like a guy in craps getting on a heater with a roll.
Right.
You were just like all, I'm just going to you, going to you, and they knew it was going to Brown. There was nothing they could do about it. And that is how good he actually is. So I do think like regardless of the secondary, because the Dolphins secondary, which at one point was just they were the names are great, right obviously you know.
They played musical chairs a lot in the beginning of the year with that secondary they went with Nick need Him for a while and it was just like Coleman and they bounce around, but they did finally Javon holland Brandon Johnes they settled on their safeties and they're both really good.
But I still think that even though they are now finally sort of more back to what we kind of expected them to be in the preseason, it's still I just think that Brown being there, even without Derrick Henry and you know, Theonta Foreman has been fine. They couldn't get much going against s Francisco. I just think they're a much better team, and I think that I like, I don't love the hook like obviously, but I still think this is a game they're gonna win by a
touchdown with Brown back. So and again I'm assuming Budgetree by the way, comes off the COVID list as well. So that's something that I'm just with the new protocols, but I will take them. Bogman much more of a fade of the Dolphins. You've got the Titans, by the way, with the ability potentially here to now seal the division. Win that one They're still in the air for the number one seed, you know, depending especially on what happens
with the Bengals against Chiefs. Can't get that buy. So I'm gonna go with the Titan deer Lang three and alfter.
The Dolphins, I I don't like that. I definitely took Miami in this game, but I tend to get Tennessee wrong like most weeks because like we said, you know, the Rams, who we thought were gonna beat the crap out of Tennessee after Derrick Henry lost at home to them, so they do pull off some weird wins, but then they lost to Pittsburgh, And I told you Pittsburgh is not a good team, So, like you know, Tennessee is a bit of a roller coaster.
The Dolphins too.
I think if Taysom Hill starts that game, I don't think the Dolphins win it. Right, You're not getting to Taysom Hill eight.
Are you impressed by that win over the doll I'm not impressed by.
Because the Saints were in it the whole time with Ian book and I said, I told my friend Bubba on our Line Star show, I said, I would rather have Mason Rudolph than Ian Book. He's like, well, that's all you need to know about Ian Book. Know how much you hate Mason Rudolph. Yes, absolutely, Ian Book wasn't
good at Notre Dame. I can't I believe he got drafted, you know, And I thought they were gonna end up doing that same stuff with Taysom Hill that you know, that's why they draft drafted I in Book, right, But sometimes you draft a guy like Danny Etling to turn him into a wide receiver like the Patriots did, who play quarterback at LSU, And so I thought, maybe they're gonna move in positions. That was my first thought when
he and Book got drafted. Not he's going to start a game when they're down to the third string quarterback ever in the NFL. So them not blowing them out of the water made me go, Okay, you know, the offense was really just not great. It's all Jayla Wattle. That's all they have right now. So yeah, they're screwing around with those running backs way too much. Stuke Johnson and Philip lindsay now because Gascon is coming off the COVID and all that stuff, I just both these seems
to me are hard to figure out. So yes, I'll say I'm taking Miami, but it's not with a great amount of confidence.
So yeah, and again I think everything you're saying is correct. The Titans have been a very tough team to figure out because again, they were winning all these games. Once Derrick Henry went out where you were like, you shouldn't really be winning these games.
And then they play Pittsburgh and you're like, beat the crap out of Pittsburgh and they don't win.
And even by the way, this game against the forty nine ers, which I was on the Titans and I thought after the first drive, I was like, boy, this was a terrible pick and maybe they wouldn't have even won if Garoppolo apparently hadn't gotten hurt in that game. Like who knows, but they have they they have a way, man, they have a way of figuring out this tough and I think, yeah, we like.
A first round out, but they're gonna have Derrick Henry back, so that changes a whole landscape of this team, so absolutely.
And who knows.
And again, a big part of it really is the fade of the Dolphins. Rather than buying the I think that I just think this is going to end This ride, which has been incredible sort of to watch, is just going to end at some point. So that's my second pick. How about your third pick?
My third pick, I'm going to roll with the over in the Seattle and Detroit game.
It's forty two and a half, so it's low.
You know, we get a twenty one twenty one game and then have a field goal kicked and we're right there. The twenty four to twenty one game gets us home, and that's what I expected in this game. I don't expect it to go way way over, But I do think that the Lions are a better offense with Jared Goff and instead of Tim Boyle. That's why they only put up sixteen points last week. Jared Goff is back,
it's not great. In fact, the only person worse at throwing the ball down the field this year then Trevor Lawrence, is Jared Goff. But the Seattle defense was bad the whole year. Now with Jamal Adams out, it is horrific. You just saw the Bearers come back with Nick Foles against them in Seattle, and that game.
Was twenty five twenty four.
So the Lions are a covering machine, but their secondary has been beat to crap too. This is another team a lot like the Ravens, not necessarily their fault. They've had so many guys in the secondary go down. Jerry Jacobs I didn't know about before the season started, and he started a ton of games for this team. Blowed his knee and he's out, so they're down too. Guys I've never heard of once again starting for them at the end of the year because of injuries plus COVID,
plus you know, just being not a great team. So I expect Tyler Lockett to go crazy. He's one of my DFS picks this week. I think Metcalf could go crazy too.
A monor.
Saint Brown has proven that he is a quarterback proof. Seahawks can't can't stop the run to save their life. They can't do anything on defense. Man, it's a bad roster. So I think that this game is definitely gonna go over. I expect the Seahawks to win it, but I don't have a ton of confidence in them because the Lions are covering machines. So the Lions might win this game straight up. But I do love the over because both these defenses are poors.
Right now, Yeah, you make a good case for it. And at forty two and a half, you really don't need much to go right to go over that game right.
One going into the fourth to get us a field goal to win it, long as it doesn't die.
And you can see them like you can see the Seahawks basically trying to have a game where just things go right in the passing game, just for Russell. Get this taste out of their mouth like it has been terrible right now.
And if you got Russ to stay too, you got to make it fun for him. You got to make the last couple of weeks and putting up points and seeing the silver lining for next year so he doesn't demand that trade that he didn't really demand this year kind of buddy, did you know whatever it was? So you know, if you want him to stay, you gotta make it. You gotta make it so he wants to So you gotta make him have fun. Put up some points with them, let Russ cook as the kids can say, Dan.
Yes, I do like that phrase, those those children who use it. Yeah, all right, so I'm with you. Actually I like it. I hadn't considered that game, but that that's really not a bad one. So you stole my over under for the day with a round. So I'll pivot and I'll go with the and I'm gonna consider it. I'll go with the under on the Broncos Charters game at forty five and a half. And what this this
really boils down to a couple of days. One is Drew Locke, who I think, I don't know if he's officially been named the starter, but the expectation is that he's going to start. And I understand that the charge generally speaking, have a porous run defense. So you might see Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams get seventy five. They're both limited. And you know that the Chargers defense, it
depends on the health and stuff like that. They're not always the absolute Steve now they were obviously last week, but they're not always the absolute, but regardless, they're limited in either way. Like, if you are the Chargers, okay, there, what is to prevent you from stacking the box up the wazoo right now? Because there's just no chance that Drew Lock is going to beat you? And there's no chance that the Broncos want to allow Drew Lock to
be the person who decides the game. They're gonna run it all day and again, even if they gain yard, it's like the more you run the ball, the more the clock bleeds. And that's just how it's gonna be necessarily. And the Broncos defense is solid. They know the Chargers pretty well, so I don't expect the Chargers necessarily to go up and put up you know, a thirty spot or anything here. But realistically, I think the Broncos with
Drew Lock. I mean, you watch that game against just a Raiders defense that should not be able to stop anybody, and they just couldn't do anything whatsoever. We've seen Lock enough here, so it's more of a fate of what we're going to see from the Broncos offense necessarily than the Chargers. But I'll I'll lean towards the under here
at the forty five and a half. Again, if I were going to have my pick of the litta, it would have been the over forty six and a half with that with the Bronx, but I lean under, So.
I'm right, I'm also taking the under in this game because of you know, mainly the points that you just said, I how are you trusting Drew Lock, Like I've watched Teddy Bridgewater all year and I go, God, Drew Lock's got to be better than this.
Watch one game of Drew Lock.
And I go, absolutely not. He is not.
Teddy Bridgewater is better, and they both are terrible. Like this is a team that is a quarterback away. They have good weapons and everything, but uh, you know, the quarterback ain't there this week. So I'm absolutely with you give me the under here because the Chargers are in a weird funk right now. Justin Herbert could get a lot of this, but the Denver defense is solid. You know, I play good ball, so they're gonna limit what the
Chargers can do on offense. It's not gonna be like playing the Texans where Justin Jackson has one hundred and eighty yards and a touchdown and all that stuff. So I'm with you on the under in this game, mainly because I don't trust either offense right now, and I do trust Denver's defense, So we're some potico as far as that game goes.
For sure, I.
Love it all right, Well, recap at the end, but bogwan, let's fly through the remaining spreads and just let me know if you've got to lean one way or the other. Okay, yep, Pats are laying sixteen to the Jaguars in New England. Uh.
Yeah, they haven't scored a touchdown with Trevor Lawrence for a month, so give me the Patriots.
And I agree. I don't ever actually take these giant spreads. But man, there's just I don't know what the spread would have to be to get me to feel comfortable taking the Jaguars in this game. With the Pats off a bad loss as well, Ye, try toe of something, all right. So we go to another big spread. Next, the Bucks laying thirteen to the Jets in New Jersey.
I'll lay it.
The Jets have packed up and gone to gotten to bed for the winner, so Tampa Bay wins this game.
I can't imagine, Bogman, that all of the big favorites are going to cover, But I'm taking a.
Big versus LA for sure this week, so.
I'm still taking them though I every everything.
There's one double digit spread I will not take.
Better not be the Bills against the Falcons, because I am taking this. Okay, I'm also with the Bucks here, and again we are we both do fantasy rankings. I certainly hope for my championship teams that everybody in the Bucks decides to go nuts in this game and as a Jets fan.
Box are hurt in the champions Ah, Mike Evans Leonard Fournette.
To me, Yeah, that is bad. But I will say that again. You mentioned about, you know, the double whammy when you bet you know on your team. Like a great thing about being a Jets fan is I can almost always confidently bet against the Jets and almost it usually works out. Uh, the Raiders, for you.
Would be they win because you lose your money and they lose that draft pick. So you know, it slips a little further and further every time.
So yeah, let me tell you my friend I had in a teaser this week because I didn't trust the exact spread the Jaguars getting eight and a half, and I was like, they're going to cover this spread somehow. They're going to do this somehow and win this game. Is carverble. They still won, which sucked for me, but again I did thankfully when the teaser. But yeah, it's dangerous. It's never a fun time. Raiders getting six and a half from the Colts. We're assuming Carson Wentz comes back here.
By the way, I guess you know, with the way it is, but what do you think.
I don't care with the way the Colts defense has been playing and the way that the whole offense is hand the ball to Jonathan Taylor. And I watched Sam Aliger play a lot in college and love him and hope he gets a start eventually, but it's going to be Carson Wentz. So I think the Colts win this one going away.
Eagles are visiting Washington and laying three and a half. Now, bagman, this one strikes me as something where the books are being like, yeah, take the Eagles. Take the Eagles, obviously, because we are very confident in that in you doing that right, that's what it is.
I'm going to springboard into the trap too, because Washington, oh you are, yeah, playing that egg it really it's for this reason. Ron Rivera and I just I don't like it in college, and I despise it in The pros said that Heineke's going to start, but Kyle Allen's going to get time. Break up that offensive rhythm. I don't care who you are, you can't do that in a in any game, so especially a home game against
the division rivals. So you're showing that you have no confidence in either one of these guys that were fist fighting on the sideline last week. Oh yeah, Washington is a sinking ship right now. So give me Philly.
I know, man, they and the books want you to do that, right like they do. Who what normal better looks at this line and business, You know what, gimme Washington. I feel like nobody is going to do that, and they're just laying it out there for it. But you're walking into it. Huh.
I'm walking right into it. And if it snaps me up, it snaps me up, I'll take the Bay.
I'm coming with you. Don't worry about all right? All right? All right? Is this the one bogwin Bills at home laying fourteen and a half against Falcons.
No, I'm taking the Bills in this game. They need to win.
They need to keep New England at Bay, Miami at Bay right now. They need to lock up this division, and you got to give this offense and the defense a little bit of confidence moving into towards the playoffs. So I think they blow out the Falcons. Another team that's just why is coudrel Patterson not on the field every snap.
I don't understand it.
You know, Kyle Pitts has been okay, they misuse Mike Davis the whole year, and he's also not as good as he was last year.
So this team is a big mess.
Right now, specifically on defense, and Josh Allen's going to pick him apart totally.
With you Chiefs playing five to the Bengals in CINCI, I.
Mean this is mainly I want to see it, so
I am taking the Chiefs. But also the Chiefs being able to adjust their offense to play against certain defenses instead of just throw the ball down field has been kind of scary to watch this year, and specifically for me last week when I was on instagram sending piece of p a bunch of reels instead of watching the second half of my game because it's just hurt to watch every play they were doing something wrong on So you know, I think that they go into the jungle
and we get escalator of sadness leaving it for the Bengals, which is something I love. So give me the Chiefs and I'll lay the points.
I'm with you as well, and it's just it's got to be a letdown spot man like for the Bengals coming in here off that huge enormous win over the Ravens. I just I agree. I think the Chiefs come in, I think they win handily. Giants are visiting the Bears. Bears are laying six points.
I mean, I hate this game. I don't have a lean either way.
I'll take the Giants because I don't trust the Bears to beat anybody by six. But this is a which coach gets fired first ball. As far as I'm concerned, I hope it's Joe Judge. I hate this Jake from and Mike Glennon nonsense. I hate that he hasn't used Saquon Barkley properly. You signed Kenny Galladay, give him no confidence moving forward. You have good offensive weapons and they're
all terrible this year. So I think I like Joe Judge less than I. If I had to pick one to be head coach of my team, I picked Naggy all day, every day over Joe Judge.
But I don't trust the bearst be anybody by that many points.
So give me the Giants, bagman. If you gave me your money and said please bet on this game, I would still decline because I just have absolutely like I can't even imagine. I don't want to watch it. I don't want to bet on it. I have no idea what's gonna happen. Like it's like the first game the whole year where I'm like, holy cow, please just let me get know. It's not gonna be the game.
Where they go to it on the red zone. I'm like, ugh, go to anything else.
Literally, any other game show me or replay.
How about that, show me Jags. I'd rather watch the Jags in this.
Let's go. The Chargers, as we talked about, are at home. They're laying six and a half here to the Broncos. How about the spread.
I'd taken the Chargers because they're at home and they just got embarrassed. They have to win, so I'm taking them, and Drew Lock sucks. I mean that's, you know, not with confidence, but I will take them.
I agree, I would take them as well. Again, I just can't like it was really I felt discussing backing the Raiders last week, but I was like, I don't care. It's true, Locke, It's a very easy formula and it did work out. Is this the spread Bogwin. The forty nine Ers laying twelve and a half to the Texans.
Is the one that's the one right there, and it's because I just don't trust you know, it seems like Trey Lance is going to start this game and I just don't trust them. And look, Houston is playing decent football. I'm not going to sit here and tell you they're playing good football because they're not. But they're playing decent football right now, which is not something I expected to say into a microphone after watching them for the first month of the season.
They have been terrible.
But you know, Culley's got these guys playing at least hard, and Mills is going to be their answer next year too. So let's get Nico Collins involve. Brandon Cooks is fine. Rex Burkhead had a huge game last week too, right, So it's if this was Jimmy g at full health, I would take the Niners and lay the points. But it's Trey Lance, and I just don't know what to expect from him. I would expect him to be better,
but I would be shocked if he was worse. You know, he's running scout team this whole time, So give me Houston in this game without.
A ton of confidence.
I just don't think the Niners with Tree Lance can be in anybody by double digits.
Yeah, I think that's right. I'm not going to bet it, but it definitely strikes me as something where Look, I've been impressed with Mills just more because I had such low expectations for the guy coming in, but there have been a lot of times where I've seen him playing games. It's not just against the Chargers, but generally speaking.
He's gonna be So this is kind of annoying for draft stuff, but of course this is where my brain goes. He was a five star, number one overall QB prospect when he came out of high school and he went to Stanford and really didn't do anything at Stanford, still gets drafted because he has all these great measurables and he was a five star and now he's having success in the NFL. It's going to make those five star guys that don't do a lot in college still draftable
at the end of the draft. So you know, even if Spencer Rattler has a crappy year at South Carolina and he's probably still going to get drafted because people see the pedigree of these guys, so less for him because he's not as tall, but still gonna get drafted.
Great point by when Cowboys are home link six to the Cards, what do you think?
Yeah, I'm gonna take Dallas here. I think what we saw last week from them was just the get right game. They needed it too, because Dak had been struggling pretty bad for like the last three or four weeks before this game. But you know, coming at home against Washington, who had been playing pretty well up to that point, it all clicked. So they're kind of peaking right now. Cardinals are the opposite. They peaked a little bit earlier
in the season. This is typical Cliff Kingsbury. What you see in a game or a season is a second half collapse from him because he doesn't adjust. So I never have like Cliff Kingsbury as head coach in the NFL. I think he is skated by on tons and tons of talent on this Cardinals roster, which he helped put together. So look, guy's got an eye for talent for sure, but I just don't trust him to coach up these guys.
In the and a half against Dallas.
I think they will make all of the proper adjustments and win going away.
Fading Cliff Kingsbury in the second half of any season is almost always profitable our game, and they just look lost without Hopkins. They just they look like they've.
Made or whatever really strong for them when Edmunds went down and Hopkins was out, And he's probably not gonna play in this game either, So Chase Edmonds is okay, but he's not Connor.
Yeah, he's a game time decision, so he'll probably be limited even if he does go. How about again, you said, sounded like you weren't positive on it, but sounds like you like the Lions if you had to go one way getting the seven from the Seahawks.
Yeah, the covering machines, man, The Lions are one of the best teams against the spread in the league this year. I mean, I think the Packers are better. The Cowboys are twelve and three, Packers eleven and four, Colts ten and five, Detroit ten and five against the spread. So, like I said, I like the over the most in this game, but picking against the spread, I will definitely take the Lions plus points in pretty much any game right now.
Fame that felt the same way when Pat again took that Seahawks getting six and a half, you know, giving six and a half to the Bears, It's like, I don't trust the Seahawks at this point to cover you know, six and a half against anyone.
It's kind of the Bears thing for me too.
It's like these teams are they're probably six points better than the team they're playing, but are you gonna bet your money on it?
No?
Thanks?
Right? All right? Saints slaying six and a half to the Panthers. Eanbook will not be starting in this game. Sam Donald will be though for the Panthers. So not sure what that does.
What do you think I mean, Matt Ruhle has messed this up, is the nice way to say it.
So.
I think that firing Joe Brady was a mistake. I think signing Cam Newton was a mistake. I would have stuck with Sam Donald or just gone a p J Walker for a year and know these guys aren't my answer now. I don't know, Sam Donald might still be your answer for next year. So it's a mess there. Give me New Orleans. Carolina has packed it in for the winner.
Yeah, I'm in agreement with you. And last one wrong for New Orleans suis Oh yeah for real.
Ever since Cam Jordan started getting to the quarterback again, that defense picked way up.
So total agreement. Last one, Vikings are visiting the Packers Sunday Night football. Seven points.
What do you think Packers win this one going away and lock up home field advantage so they can sit Aaron Rodgers in his COVID toe next week.
What gets me a little confused is that the two teams realistically aren't quite as different, like in terms of how good they are. But like, this is a Kirk Cousins in primetime game, in time.
Game, did he throw eighty seven yards and they still beat the Packers?
Yeah? He did not look good. Yeah, And again this is the chance for the Packers to just put this away and rest. So I'm probably not going near just at seven, but if i were to go one way or the other, I would probably go there. Bodwin, thank you so much for having me. It was great to have you remind remind everybody of the three bats, by the way, that that's what it is, the recapt.
The the Rams. I'm laying the three and a half for them. I got the over in that game of forty six and a half against Baltimore as well, and then the over forty two and a half in Seattle in Detroit, and.
I'm going to take the Steelers getting three and a half from the Browns, the Titans laying three and a half to the Dolphins, and the under forty five and a half in the Broncos in the Charters game, though I admit that if I had my drothers, I would also jump on the Rams and the Ravens over forty six and a half. Bob Win, just remind everybody where they can find more. Are you and your work?
Yeah, thank you so much for having me again, Dan, This is this show is a lot of fun and you can find me here on Betting Pros. I do the college Football betting show with Joe Pizzapia and we'll be back to the National Championship game next week.
Don't know who it is yet because we have those games coming up tomorrow. I think it's gonna be Bama in George right again.
We'll see, but you could catch me there obviously. I do the I did the IDP show with him this year as well. For Fantasy Pros. I do all my stuff at in this league. I have the Individual Defensive podcast there. I have Fantasy Football with Chris Well, Fantasy Baseball Chris Welsh. He has Prospect One. I do a DFS for Line Star as well. So see if be winning edge with my buddy Nick Allen, I am. You can hear my voice a lot if you like it.
It's all over the place. So if you like sports in my voice, it's available for you, that's for sure.
Legitimately, everywhere is where Bagman is, and he does great work. And I don't understand how he knows everything about like every college football player in the world, considering we're constantly this baseball football doesn't matter. The guy's a stud, all right. I appreciate you joining me. So that's gonna do it for this one. We'll be back as always next week talking more NFL football. I'll be talking college football, and I will talk to you though,