Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is Week sixteen. We did not do the look Aheadlines podcast this week early on just because a it's the holidays, everybody's traveling and be the games and end until you know, late night on Tuesday. So this is the only podcast for this week, but it is our best bets for
Week sixteen at the NFL season. With me to do that is Pat Fitzmorris, senior editor here at Betting Pros. Find them on Twitter at fits underscore ff. Pat. Happy holidays. How you doing?
Happy Holidays? Dan, I'm doing well. Maybe there will be a few more people interested in playing these games this week since there have been some eliminations unfortunately in our fantasy leagues.
That's true, that's true. Yes, our fantasy leagues are slowly whittling down. Thankfully, the betting landscape doesn't change. Although we can be as honest as possible, right Pat, this is an unconventional time right now in football, and there are a lot of bets, Pat, that I want to make at the moment and a couple that I have, but we have to try lightly right because of the COVID situation and everything that's happening. So we'll give out recommendations.
But I wouldn't run out to bet anything necessarily just yet. I would wait as long as possible to see what the COVID situations are, certainly for various teams and even teams again that we don't know about yet. Just you know, we'll have to see what may come in the next couple of days. But Pat our last podcast we were on for the best bets. We were on opposite sides of a game, as you well know, and that game turned out to be I don't know if both of us were right or neither one of us was right.
The forty nine ers wound up winning that game, so I wound up being on the right side. So we'll see whether or not we'll be joining forces on some games this week, or whether we'll have some difference of opinions. But if so, I look forward to that part. Remember what this one is, guys. This is our three best bets of the weekend moneyline spreads totals whatever. We'll quickly run through the remaining spreads games that we don't talk
about a couple of things before we start. Hopefully you are watching this podcast as well or listening to it on our podcast feed, but you should subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. That really helps us out if you listen to this podcast at all, Subscribing to the channel is an easy way to show your support, and we're also giving away a sign sag on Barkley helmet. By the way, if you do subscribe, then go to Bettingpros dot com slash helmet.
And also let me remind you about the latest offer from bet MGM. New customers bet ten dollars win two hundred dollars if the team you bet on scores a touchdown.
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Ten dollars win two hundred dollars in free bets. It's a team you bet on scores a touchdown with the code Juice one hundred. That's available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, I Wall, Washington, DC, Arizona, and Wyoming. And again that is our new offer from bet MGM Juice one hundred. Brief recap of last week
read Wallach went two and one. He hit on the Steelers getting one and a half from the Titans and the Bengals getting two and a half, but he missed on the Patriots getting two and a half from the Colts. I went one and two. I hit on the Jets getting ten points from the Dolphins. Pardon me, pat got that? I bet on the Jets. How about that? We went crazy? I know that was the bet I hit. I missed on the Packers laying five and a half to the Ravens and the Bills Panthers under forty four and a half.
I believe the total went to forty five there and the Packers pat right like I got it early. I said, bet it early. The spread was I don't know nine or something with the time of clothes, maybe went down the seven or whatever. So it's like, yes, got the best of the number. Still no good, but your Packers
did win. Congratulations there, okay. Oh by the way, Pat before we get going, I don't know whether or not you are you were planning to take the Saints, but Taysom Hill has just been placed in the reserve COVID nightteen oh, and the team is planning to start ian book this weekend. So yeah, so you can deal with that if you were, were you planning to take that game at all? I was.
I was anxious to talk about the total with you, which is already at thirty nine. I mean, what's it gonna be nowt twenty nine after like, this is gonna be one of the lowest totals of the season.
Oh my goodness. And because Trevor STI means also out, So yeah, this is this is something. Okay, we'll figure this all out later, but in time. In the meantime, Bat, let's talk about our best bets again. Anything you want, money, line, spread, total, whatever you want. You're the guest on this podcast, Pat, so I defer to you here. Please give me your favorite bet for the weekend.
All right, let's start off with You know, I hate generally taking double digit road favorites, but I'm going to start with the LA Chargers at the Houston Texans laying ten and I the Chargers, they obviously need this. They're eight and six, They're in the thick of the wild
card hunt. They can not afford an untimely stumble against a team that, by every metric that I have seen is regarded as the worst in the NFL, whether it's a you know, strength like a power ranking thing by you know, Massy Peabody or Sagarin or whoever it is, or the PFF grades like everyone as Houston it's the worst team in the league, even though they've managed to stumble into three wins this year. But I just don't think they have enough to hold off the Chargers and
keep this one close. The Chargers will have had some extra time to prepare after playing on Thursday night in Week fifteen. Got a lot of firepower on offense. I mean it's not just Keenan Allen and Austin Eckler like Mike Williams. I know it was guite news on COVID, right, Josh Palmer is still a very good third wide out.
He's been a nice rookie surprise. So I think they have too much firepower and just will overwhelm the Texans here in the one flaw the Chargers have dan is their run defense and maybe they're tackling and this is the one team in the league that just can't do any damage to them on the ground with Rex Burghead and David John like the Texans running game as a joke, so they are not going to be able to seize on that one weakness the Chargers might have.
Does it matter to you whatsoever about the current COVID situation with them, with the fact that both Austin Eckler we mentioned Geyton, but Eckler's on the COVID list and Brandon Cooks is also on the COVID. I mean, if Cooks is out right, I mean whatever, But does that matter to you whatsoever? If either or both play?
It doesn't know because I mean they've they've got a capable I guess running back by committee if Eckler is not cleared with Justin Jackson, who actually looked good against the Chiefs last year. You know, I don't think Joshua Kelly is any great running back. I don't know about Larry Rowntree, who would probably be active, but I just don't think it's gonna matter. Like I think they would be able to do more damage through the air and have just enough of a running game to provide some balance.
Yeah, So if I have to go on this game, I would be with you because I do think that the likelihood is that the Chargers cover this. It's really tough for me to get a road team, regardless of anything else, laying you know, double digit points. But this does strike me as a game where you're right. This is not a game where the Chargers can sort of come out and be flat. You know, they have to come out. They have to keep their foot on the gas pedal. They have to put this game away and
not mess around. The extra rest is a big deal at this point in the season, where everybody's exhaust and everything like that. They won't have Joey Bosa, right, he's declared out I think right for this game already because of the cop believe so, and because I think it's on back, so I think he's already out. So that does obviously hurt the defense, but I don't think it matters, so I would lean towards you. But again, a road favorite of double digit points, which is really tough for
me to make my favorites. So I'm interested that you are, But this is not one we'll fight about. Would you like me to give you one that we're gonna fight about, pat Let's do it, Dan, that's the Bills visiting the Patriots, laying two and a half. Now Tomorrow is Christmas Eve.
I will be spending it with my wife's family and I'm going to play this for my father in law with whom I'm very close and my brother in law, who I'm also very close with, and I imagine that they will come out and tell me I'm an idiot for taking the Bills getting the two and a half, which is fine. Bill and Kevin, I hope you're listening to this. I love you, guys. I hope you have a great day today. But you're gonna lose this game.
I think the Bills are gonna are gonna win this game here, pat like, I would take them on the money line, but you know, moneyline, BET's what I mean. I'll sprinkle on the money line because if you're going to take anybody as a short, you know, dog, you might as well take them on the money line as well. But my official pick will be two and a half. There are some twos out there. I'll take the two and a half. Obviously, we have some issues with the
Bills right now. They've got you know, Tredavius Whites out for the year. There's no Cole Beasley in this game because he tests a positive and he's unvaccinated. I'm gonna assume Emmanuel Sanders isn't gonna play here. Pat Both teams here are are good and pretty even. I feel like when you look at the metrics, right, billse are you know, third in overall DVOA. Pats are fifth on defense, the Bills are second in EPA per play, the Patriots are third.
But I'm just I'm tired of like I haven't been the whole year pat But I just I'm not trusting Mac Jones basically to be able to win these types of games.
Now.
I know they beat the Bills in the windiest game in the history of mankind where he threw three passes, but you see what happens if he is forced to put the game on his shoulders, like we saw against the Colts, it's gonna be really difficult for him to do that. They don't have the playmakers in the receiving game,
and he's a rookie. And we saw how much success the Patriots had running the ball against the Bills, of course, but even then, pat they still only scored fourteen points despite the fact that they could run the ball at will in that game. Had the Bills had any semblance of a running game, or had they even just let Josh Allen throw the ball regularly, even a little more, even in that wind, they would have won the game.
So Damian Harris is hopefully going to play here, but Kendrick Bourne's on the COVID list, Nelson Aguiler is probably out, and kill Harry maybe out. The Bills have issues on the offensive line again with COVID John Feliciano Deon Dawkins. The Bills are just a better team here. I think pat like in a vacuum, they're a better team. It's really as simple as that. Too evenly matched teams. It's a second divisional game, so you assume it's going to
be tough. I'm just going to take the underdog and the one that doesn't have the rookie quarterback here, especially if they're getting points. So I imagine that you have a differing opinion, and I would like to hear it.
I do well, let me be your sparring partner before your main event with Bill and Kevin.
Can you do it?
Chris? The way that is not good at I should have on my podcast this week, I said the Wolf of Rodo Street. He's a good Boston guy. I've been paying more careful attention so I could mimic more accurately. But I don't know if my argument is going to be quite as thorough as yours. But in that first meeting, we saw the Patriots just abandoned the running game, say we're gonna run this and uh, the Bills, oh sorry, abandoned the passing game, throw three passes, run it down
their throats for being an outdoor buffalo team. The Bills are a finesse team. It totally blies their location geographically, but they are a finesse team. And I think the Patriots like took pride in just beating the hell out of them in that game physically two weeks ago and winning the game that way, And I think they're going to try to play that way again and run and they have to again here the first time it was the wind. This time it's their complete shortage of wide receivers.
I guess Jacoby Myers is basically like the only healthy receiver they have. They're going to line up two tight ends run it probably sixty five percent of the time against the Bills, and the Bills don't have a great run dye. You know they it's either going to be a lot of Ramandre Stevenson or a Stevenson Harris combo, and I think they're going to have some success as they did before. I mean, they didn't hit many long runs, but they moved the chains and they got that one
long run from Damien Harris for the touchdown. And then defensively, like I love this Patriots pass defense, Like I think it's the best pass defense in the NFL. Their secondary
is just you know, air tights. I mean, maybe maybe Jalen Mills isn't like the best cornerback, but other than that, I mean it's there's no weakness in that secondary, and they can put pressure on quarterbacks with only four which is kind of key against the Bills because that stops like if you have your linebackers staying home, like Josh Allen probably isn't going to do quite as much damage
as he could. Although you know, last game he I don't can't remember how many rushing yards he had against them. Did he go over a hundred against the No? Against I can't remember how how many rushing yards he had against them, Yeah, yeah, two weeks ago. I can't Anyway, I don't know. And like Devin Singletary. The Bills have had this inconsistent running game all year. I like that they've basically narrowed it down to having Devin Singletary be their main guy, or at least we think so, because
they've had faked us on their backs before. But like, I don't know if they're going to have enough to just consistently. It's just not the Bills m to really like pound away with a running back. You know, they don't win games that way. So yeah, I have some concerns about their ability to consistently move the ball on this Patriots defense, which is so good against the pass, and I think the Patriots are just a more physical game being at home outdoors in Foxborough. Like I just
I kind of like the Pats in this one. Dan, It's not a best bet, but I am going to be putting something on the Pats laying the points.
All right, So good. We can use this for our Sunday night podcast again, we do a fancy podcast on Sunday nights. So this will again whoever wins this game, I will say pat will be able to kind of lout it over the other one. But I will say that even with that game, which by the way had one like however long Damien Harris's touchdown run was early.
On sixty eight or something.
They moved the ball by the way, I thinksh Allen had thirty nine yards rushing or something or thing. Okay, So even with that, even with them being a to move the ball at will, which was just crazy, right, Like, they literally ran the same play over and over again and the Bills can have them. They had fourteen points, like they this was not sort of a thing where they could put up points at will because they can't pass the ball and they're not gonna be or at
least in that game with the win. I don't expect them to be able to do it here. Again, as you mentioned Jacobe Myers and Hunter Henry. Fine, but I do think that the Bills newfound running game, and you're right, we've been headfaked before. But I think the difference here is that they understand they have to have a semblance of a running game. They have to because otherwise if they're just sort of gonna be this passing offense where there are down weapons and where teams have sort of
adapted to them. And Josh Allen isn't playing quite as well as he did last year. I think they're gonna be able to attack them. And again, even in that game, what was the final score that on? Fourteen to ten? Is that right? So yeah, they missed you know, if you know Tyler Bass doesn't miss a you know, twenty yards field goal or anything like that, they probably win that game, you know, in that game. I just think they're a better team.
Man.
Now again, I have been fading two teams this most of the year. Not always sometimes I back them, but most of the year Patriots have been one of them. Has not always worked out, certainly. I'll talk about the other one here with my second pick. But I really like this betpat I really do. And by the way, assuming that everything stays the same, like, I will be happy to also tease up the Bills here to eight and a half. This is a prime teaser piece for
me to bilt like that. I don't see the Patriots winning this game by ten points, like under any circumstances, you know, I think at the very least it'll be a close game, maybe they win by three. If that happens, I don't think so. I think the Bills went out right, But I'll probably also tease the Bills up to eight and a half from the two and a half as well. All right, that's our disagreement. Go on to your second pick.
All right. So we saw the Bears play one of the worst games I can ever remember seeing seeing a team play just totally undisciplined and awful. And even though like a team Hicks, their nose tackle just ruined, single handedly ruined the center of the Minnesota offensive line, like the Bears just repeatedly destroyed themselves against Minnesota. And I mean, this has the look of a team that has completely quit on its head coach. I mean, just playing so
stupidly and like the offense is struggling. You know. They they only got their lone touchdown at the end on the last play on a nineteen yard desperation heave where I don't even think the guy actually crossed the goal line. Right, They're playing a Seattle team in Seattle that, despite being five and nine, has scored exactly as many points as they've allowed this season. They've scored two hundred and eighty two, they've allowed two hundred and eighty two. So Seattle's kind
of unlucky to be a five and nine team. I think it's a better team than that. The defense has been like sneaky effective the last month and a half or so. I know Russell Wilson is not firing on all cylinders. And you know that the idea that Rishad Penny was going to be some sort of savior out of the backfield was maybe torpedoed a bit in Week fifteen.
But like it's a functional offense and man like giving less than a touchdown to this just horrendous Bears outfit that has quit on its head coach in Seattle, you know, traveling all the way to the Pacific Northwest on over the holidays, Like, I can't imagine they're going to be real excited about being away from home. I'm all over Seattle on this, like absolutely six and a half points. I'd give like nine and a half points in this one.
I think they're going to wipe out the Bears. Wow, they're just a much better team, Dan.
All right, let's talk through some of it then. First of all, the Seahawks, oddly enough, the Bears playing on a Monday night are on the longer week, right because the Seahawks had to play Tuesday, right, I'm not crazy?
Right? Yes?
All right, there's a little bit Oddly enough, the Bears get the extra rest in this one. The Bears were
I mean, you were absolutely right in Pat. That the beauty of us sort of here is that, you know, we talk all the time, we message about football all the time during the games, and we are just going back and forth, especially with Yeats again one of our colleagues here talking about the Bears and how undisciplined they are, and their whole secondary was out and still though Pat like the defense at least put up an effort there, like those I mean they held down justin Jefferson, they
held on Kirk Cousins like, the defense put up a decent effort here. And the Seahawks, who I thought and probably should have. I mean, I'm not going to say the right side is the winning side, but I feel like they should have covered the seven point spread against the Rams, Like I feel like that was sort of where but they they're so off and Russ the deep ball man, like I thought maybe he was finally coming back to form. He looked terrible in that game. The
Seahawks laying almost a touchdown to anybody makes me nervous. Pat, It's so it surprises me a little bit that you think they're just going to absolutely steamroll the Bears here.
Getting Locket back is going to help getting him off the COVID list. As much as Russell Wilson has struggled, I still think he's a much better quarterback than Kirk Cousins, which I think was a big I mean that interception Kirk Cousins through that arm punt. I mean, like Cousins is just as I said, and it drew some iron on Twitter, Like I think Cousins is a bad quarterback
masquerading is a good quarterback. And you know Russ is just a lot better, especially when he's got Tyler Lockett and he and DK have not been clicking this year, but if he is Locket, like one receiver he can totally trust and be in sync with, Like I think that's going to be enough to hit on a couple of big plays and keep the chains moving and put a points against this Bears defense. Like, yeah, the Bears.
The Bears defense is not trash. They just play stupid sometimes and like some of the taunting and ridiculous league stuff, like and are we going to see that end with a team that is quit on its head coach, Like I don't know, I mean, they just there's no discipline on that team. And like that offense, Dan, I mean, oh, David Montgomery has not gotten anything going since coming back,
and it's because the offensive line is terrible. You know, justin fields is as decent as the numbers might have been, Like, he is just not ready for prime time as a passer yet. Yeah, man on the road against a pretty professional defense, I just do not see them putting up more than about fourteen points seventeen points tops.
Yeah, and you but you think that the Seahawks then are obviously going to put up you know, twenty four maybe ish, that's.
Fair, I mean fourteen or seventeen top stan and like yeah, three and are in play for sure, that's fair.
That's fair. Yeah, I'm not I'm not going to join. Yeah, I'm not gonna go against you because it's basically almost like, please don't make me back either one of these teams. But I certainly do have some I it's hard to see the Bears keeping it close in Seattle in particular with this, so I'm gonna avoid it another game. It's a lot, it's a lot of ugly stuff. This week, Pat,
I think we can agree with that. I am going to continue to fade the Bengals as I did when you were on this podcast last although I did like them getting getting the two and a half or three from Denver. I'm going to fade them here though, and I'm going to take the Ravens getting three here in Cincinnati from the Bengals. I admit I'm a little nervous about this one, but it's hard for me to see the Bengals totally blowing out the Ravens, even though they
did it earlier this year. This isn't quite like a must win for either team, but it's kind of a must win, like they can each make the playoffs if they don't, but it's going to be really hard for them to be able to win the division really if you lose this game. It's the teams are pretty even overall, so I basically will start there. Baltimore sixteenth in overall DVA,
the Bengals are nineteenth. I've tried to point out where the Bengals are in DVA the whole year because I think that sort of illustrates exactly how good they are. They're a very middling team. It's kind of a classic Bilo Sell high spot. The Ravens have now lost three games, three straight losses by combined four points. Okay, that's crazy four points, and they're combined three losses. The Bengals are
coming off the win in Denver. When all else fails, Pat, I go with the better coach team that is the Ravens. I know John Harvon's catch a lot of crap for his two point conversions. I didn't really have a problem with any of it. But you know, again, with no secondary, with Tyler Huntley, he just keeps them in games. They play hard. They're going to play a tight game here. I don't see them getting blown out. And I don't trust Sack Tayler whatsoever. I think the Bengals are a
lot of smoke and mirrors. The Ravens are going to be as motivated as possible. I know the Bengals will be too, but again, they got trounced in the previous game against the Bengals. They're pissed off about these losses. It's a revenge spot for them. I know that the Ravens secondary is horrific right now because they're so banged up and everything, like that, but since he just is not consistent. I mean, we saw that again, Pat, with
the forty nine Ers secondary. That was one of the things we talked about, right, how decimated it was, and the Bengals really weren't able to take advantage of that. Joe Mixon is banged up. I think he'll play, but again he's banged up in this one. You know, you look at how they've done the loss of the Jets. They were destroyed by the Browns, then they destroyed the Raiders, and they beat the crap out of the Steelers, then they get blown out by the Charters. It's just a
very inconsistent young team. I don't really see them being able to win this game. It doesn't matter to me if Lamar Jackson plays, It really doesn't like. If he's healthy enough to play, that's good. It boosts their chances. But I do think a full week of practice with Tyler Helnley should be fine. The second divisional game here, Pat. This is also a theme for me second divisional games. They're always close. I'm getting almost a field goal from
a team I usually like it. I lean towards the Ravens, so I'm going to take them getting the three points. I admit I'm a little uneasy about it. We were on different sides of the Bengals game last time, Pat, are we on different sides of the Bengals game this time?
I think we are again. Dan. I'm I'm telling you though in advance, I'm not going to touch this game because I cannot get on the right side of a Ravens game.
You have to bet them, don't you.
I have to bet them for my pool every week. And I have lost the last two weeks when I thought I had made the right wager betting against them both times, only for them to furiously rally back into a couple of covers. I mean, talk about the back door being open for covers for the Ravens the last two weeks.
My god, the Browns game insane.
But yeah, and that's that's kind of what worries me, Dan, that they have had to like stage these big rallies just to come back and lose close games. I mean they and bless the Ravens for like continuing to play their tails off when they have been so decimated by injuries, and like they could have easily flown the white flag
against the Packers last week. When the Packers. You know, they couldn't stop the Packers, but like the offense just kept fighting back, fighting back, fighting back to make it a game. And man, I just I can't back a team this decimated, especially in the secondary, when you're going up against a team with you know, one of the most potent groups of wide receivers in the league against a quarterback who I think is like I mean, if it's possible to call the former number one overall draft
pick underrated, I think Burrow is kind of underrated. Like, I think he's a fantastic passer, and the numbers have not always matched just how good he's been I think recently. So yeah, I have a hard time backing the Ravens with this one just being so under man. I agree that Harbaugh's a really good coach and that this team just has a lot of spirit and grit, but man, uh, like just the injuries on defense, the injury at quarterback.
Huntley has been good, but like, I don't trust him to hang with Burrow in a shootout.
Yeah, I get it, I completely get it. You know. For me, it's really like the Bengals have had opportunities to put up you know, big passing games, you know, late and again against San Francisco, and they just didn't I think, you know, with this being a divisional game, they're always close, usually, especially the second one. I think with the weak understanding, I just I trust Harbaugh to be able to have some sort of plan to keep this close. So yeah, I will go with the Ravens.
The Bengals have been very jacky and high, no question about that. Another reason I don't. I don't want anything to do with this game.
That's actually a really good point, because I do. I haven't always faded them. Again, I've sort of been buying into them on occasion with some of these games. Again last week as well, I liked I liked them getting points in Denver. I couldn't understand that spread, like I would have taken them on the money line for sure, But uh, in this one, I don't know. Man, this strikes me as the what's the bad one? Mister Hyde? Yeah, mister Hyde version of the doctor declas the hide But yeah,
you're right. It is a little hard to handicap them because they they are like different teams sometimes when they come up all right, last pick pat what he got?
Yeah, this will be quick because it's kind of covering old ground. I like the under in the New England Buffalo game forty three and a half. I mentioned my concerns about Buffalo being able to move the ball and find balance against that New England team with all that talent they have in the secondary. J C. Jackson, Devin mccordy, Dugger, like that's just so hard and being down wide receivers. I don't think they're going to sustain much of a
running game. That's just not in the Bills offensive DNA. And you know, you express some of the concerns about mac Jones especially, And here's where you can win your bet, Dan, is if like the Bills get a lead, because we saw that mac Jones just can't bring them back. Like as soon as the Colts got that punt block touchdown to go up fourteen, nothing, Yeah, you felt like that game was over. It just kind of you know, mac
Jones digging them out of a big hole. Like that's the one thing the Patriots really can't do if they're going to win a game, is get down early like that. So yeah, I think this one is going to play under, maybe not much under, but I don't see it flying way over the total forty three and a half. I just think it's a solid percentage play to take the under here, especially if there's any sort of weather again in New England this week.
Yeah, no, I like it. I definitely like it. So I have been cold on totals like so I'm sticking with spreads for this week. But I do like it. And again last week, I really like the Bills Panthers under, and again it went over by half a point. Yeah, I know it's a chiller, but anyway, yes, I do like it as well. Again the Chris Raybond. Why does everybody hate betten unders? You're winning as soon as the game starts, So I agree with that. I'm with you on that one. And maybe I can see maybe a
same game teaser there. Maybe I'll tease the total up and the Bills up as well. All Right, my last one is probably the grossest pick I've ever made, I think on this I've made some gross picks and that's what you gotta do. It's actually the Raiders they're giving one in our consensus. Ods you look at the various books Raiders against the Broncos, they are giving one and a half at bet MGM. They are getting one at
FanDuel and DraftKings. They are getting half a point at Fox Bet, they are giving half a point at points Bet. So it's really all over the place. At this point, I'm gonna go the official consensus line is laying one. That's this is ninety percent about Drew Lock. Pat. You know Teddy Bridgwater is going to be out for this game. That is a massive downgrade to me. Even though Teddy hasn't been great this year, just Drew Lock, I've seen enough from him to understand that I don't feel great
about him. The Raiders obviously beat them earlier in this year pretty substantially. This is obviously a different team. They're not playing nearly as well. There's gonna be no Darren Waller offensively, there's no Jonathan Abram Like. They're not as good as they were earlier in the year. But the
Raiders always cover against the Broncos. Oddly enough aided their last ten meetings, and I realized it almost lost against a Browns team led by Nick Mullins, but they did outgain Cleveland by like one hundred yards in that game. And this game actually sets up well for the Raiders The Raiders have a lot of explosive plays. That's one of the things that they do well. The Broncos secondary is good, but they do not defend the explosive play all that well. We saw that in the first matchup.
So if you're the Raiders, you just basically have to commit yourself to stopping the run. It's all you care about. Make Drew Lock beat you. And I think there's such a little chance of Drew Lock beating you, especially for a team like the Raiders. They get a lot of pressure without blitzing a ton, which I think is a good recipe for a guy like Lock. So it's uncomfortable to be backing a Raiders team that half the time just looks dead in the water here pat and especially
against the Browns. But man, if I have the chance to basically just have a pickham game against Drew Lock, I'm just gonna do it. So I'm going with the Raiders here at home against the Broncos, laying a point. I don't know how you feel about that one.
It's gonna be a layoff for me. If you force me to bet it, I'd probably agree and go with the Raiders because I have some of the same feelings about Drew Lock. I don't know, like I feel like he could maybe surprise us with a non terrible game, Like I don't think he's just I actually think there are worst backups in the league. I don't think Drew Lock should ever be considered as a potential starter for
anyone ever again. But one thing that kind of worries me, like if we don't see Darren Waller come back this week, yep, Like passing offense has struggled leg I mean to the point that Derek Carr. I think in games Waller has played this year, average is like three hundred and ten yards a game passing, and then gave Darren Waller doesn't play,
average is like two forty and has thrown. Yeah, it was seventeen touchdowns in eleven games with him, and like uh four and four without him, or seventeen ten and five and five with him. So it's kind of a toothless offense without Waller, which is a concern in the Denver defense is pretty credible. So I just worry that this is the kind of game that could stay within one score the entire time and just get really close.
Like I understand why the spread is oscillating between you know, a point or half a point either way and might land as a pick him. But yeah, to me, this is just kind of a stay away.
Yeah, and I get it. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna go play about it. Then over under is forty one and a half, by the way, which I don't hate the under in that one either, because I do think that points are probably going to be a little difficult to score here. That is a low one though. All right, well, recap everything at the end, Pat, But why don't we very quickly run through the remaining spreads and just give our five second take on it.
Good with that, yep, let's do it.
Your packers are home taking on the Browns. This is Saturday laying seven and a half.
If you made me pick a side, I would probably pick my packers to cover. And you know, Dan, I'm sort of a pessimistic packers better, So you know, maybe that means a little something more that I like them. I just don't think they're going to face plants against a pretty limited offense on Christmas in Lambeau. Yep, I think I like the under more. And at first my instinct of pon seeing what is it forty six.
Forty six, forty five and a half, forty six draftings, So but forty five and a half consensus.
Yeah, yeah, So my first thought was over. But then the way to score on the Packers is with the big home run plays, not ball control. And that's sort of the antithesis of what the Browns do. They are a ball control team. You know, maybe the occasional deep shot to Donovan People's jones. But like, the Packers have given up a lot of forty plus yard pass plays and weirdly, they've given up one of the fewest number of twenty plus yards pass plays in the league. Like,
beat them over the top, or don't beat them at all. Like, it's hard to do ball control against the Packers. And the more important thing for the under here, Dan, these are two of the slowest paced teams in the league. I mean, the Packers routinely do not snap the ball until the play clock is at zero or some people would contend past zero. There have been a few instances where they've maybe gotten away with what should have been delayed games. And the Browns are twenty ninth in pace
number of seconds between snap. So this is going to be a fast moving game. They should get in under the three hour mark I would expect. And yeah, so I don't know. I think forty five and a half or forty six is going to be a pretty tall order for these two teams, even though the Packers passing game has really been hitting on all cylinders.
Yeah, well, obviously, I mean we have Mbs right now in the COVID list, so who knows if he's going to play. But I do think that if you're the Browns, you want to slow this game down as much as possible, right You want to you know, run the ball obviously as they always do, as much as possible, and try to slow it down, keep the ball out of Rogers hands. It lends itself to the under So I don't mind that play there. I think I probably would lean towards the pack if I had to go, but it's a
stay away from me. Are you gonna get to enjoy this game on Christmas? Pat?
I will for sure. I will be in a household full of Packers fans.
So wonderful. I love it. Colts against the Cardinals, Pat, This is a really interesting one. They're visiting Arizona. Cardinals favored by one. I have very mixed feelings about this game. Pat. I've gone back and forth on him.
I do too. It's hard to endorse the Cardinals, as bad as they looked on both sides of the ball last week against Detroit. But it's always hard to bet a team that's coming off such a bad performance. But I think one of the best bets you can make in football is to take the embarrassed, humiliated team coming off a bad loss and a team that's good enough
to do something about it. And I think the Cardinals perfectly fit that criteria going up against a fat and happy Indianapolis team that's been playing really well, coming off a very convincing victory at home against the Patriots, and now they have to go on the road. So just kind of the formula here has me leaning towards Arizona, even though it does not feel good after the way they played against Detroit.
That is exactly correct. That's exactly how I feel about a pat which is to say, by the way, Alvin Cook just placed on the COVID nineteen less Pat So sorry trying to get ahead of it, my friend, So you know, for that one, Yes, that's exactly how I feel. About it entirely, which is to say, yeah, a lot of it makes me like the Colts. They're playing really well. They're an underrated football team. The Cardinals look a little
bit like they're in disarray. But it is such a classic Bilo cell high spot at this point that it just makes me feel like if I had to go one way, ultimately, I would go with the Cardinals, but man, it is unsettling. Giants are visiting the Eagles, a game only a mother could love. Nine and a half. Pat It's ten at DraftKings, but let's say consensus at nine and a half with the Eagles laying that in Philadelphia.
A total stay away for me. I'm definitely not betting on the Joe Judge side, the depleted side, but I don't think this Eagles team is good either, and I hate them as a double digit favorite pretty much no matter who they're playing. So I'm just walking away from this game at a fast pace entirely.
I mean, especially we saw what just happened when they played each other. I mean, you know, Dalen Hurts had one of the worst games I've ever seen him play. So yeah, just run away from this game. Don't watch it for any reason whatsoever, unless you're an Eagles fan, in which case hopefully you enjoy the victory. My Jets are taking on the equally putrid Jaguars laying one and a half points in New Jersey. What do you think?
Yeah? So I was kind of compelled by the over or the under at first, like how are these two teams going to get to forty or forty one points? And then I realized they're two of the fastest based teams in the league. Like they operate. I think both are in the top five as far as number of seconds burned between plays. They like to they like to get after it dan like they like to fail quickly. So yeah, and like, how do you how do you
play this? I mean with Sala on the COVID list, and like we thought the Jaguars might get the post or been Meyer bounced last week and it didn't happen. Do they get a delayed post Meyer bounce? Like? I think if you forced me to pick this one, I would take the Jaguars. Yes, But yeah, I'm not going to be forced to bet this game or watch this game.
Correct. I will be forced to watch this game because it's the Jets, But I think the Jaguars are the right side in this game. You know, I think they're overall a better team realistically. I just do the Jets, especially without a Lodge more. There's no Corey Davis, like the Jets are just bereft of weapons. At least the Jaguars have weapons, and James Robinson might run for one hundred and seventy five yards in this game.
You know, I know some of the metrics stands say that the Jets are the slightly better team.
I know, I know what the metrics say, but as somebody who's compelled to watch every snap of every Jets game, I can't imagine they're a better team than any other team in the NFL right now. I understand completely, and you know, but yeah, I mean, look, I'm not betting it. I think that if you have to go one way, though, I would go with the Jaguars just because goodness, give me the team getting the points in this game. That's where I'm going with Bucks are visiting Carolina. Spread's pretty
consistent here at ten. Obviously you've got no Chris Godwin right now. For the Bucks, you've got no Leonard Fournette. My guess is you will have no Mike Evans in this game, but you will have Antonio Brown and you will have Ronald Jones unless there's COVID issues. So Pat, what do you do? Hear the road team laying ten in Carolina?
I think the Bucks are good enough to make the necessary adjustments after they were just completely thwarted by the Saints last weekend. Like the Panthers defense is no joke, it's good. I don't know if they'll be able to bring this sort of heat on Tom Brady that the Saints were able to put on him last week. I kind of just think the Buccaneers are going to figure
this out. I kind of lean on them to cover the number against you know, the Panthers offense is just so like, I can't I can't take the Panthers even with the ten points. I can't take this Panthers offense against Tom Brady. So I'm leaning Bucks here. I don't know if I'm gonna bet it or not.
Yeah I would, I'm not going to bet it, but assuming that COVID doesn't wreck everything again, all all recommendations are assuming COVID does a recornything. I would go with the Bucks because I do think you're going to see a bounce back performance here. You know that the Panthers offensively are not going to be able to put up that many points no matter what goes on. You've got
DJ Moore little banged up. But also you saw even the Bucks with Jones and Fournette before he went out, they were able to run the ball pretty well against a very difficult Saints run defense. So I do think that they'll worse, come to worse. He'll be able to do that, but you get Brady a week to prepare for these guys, especially with Brown back, with Gronk, even you know, guy like Tyler Johnson. I feel like offensively they're going to bounce back and they'll want to make
a statement here, so I will go with them. Lions are getting five and a half right now in Atlanta. Jared Goff is on the COVID list. Yeah, you know, I know, Pat, what you want to do about that. Maybe he plays, maybe he doesn't. So I don't know how you can handicap this game.
Yeah, that's exactly it. And it's a weird line Atlanta minus six and plus one hundred I was seeing this morning at DraftKings. So even money for Atlanta to cover a six point spread, Like, you can't feel good about Atlanta covering a six point spread against anyone, But I guess my biggest concern about betting Atlanta is that their offense can just be wrecked by a good pass rush. And I think Detroit's pass rush is ranked like thirty
first by PFF. So maybe the Falcons are the right side on this one, even though I think the Lions are going to get respect from betters because they've been a frisky underdog lately and obviously they were really frisky against the Cardinals last week. But if I had to play this, I think I would play it on the Atlanta side and lay the points. As really uncomfortable as that feels, I think that might be the right bet.
I'm really excited, uh for an excuse to not have to bet or watch this game because of the COVID situation. But yeah, as of right now, I take the Falcons because I do think that that they have the ability to to put up some big numbers of everything goes right, and you're right that lines don't get a lot of pressure, so that does.
I would say, I would say, for sure, Dan, I like I would not want to play this one until we knew whether was going because golf has been like sneakily good in the last four weeks, been pretty good.
Correct, the Rams are laying three in Minnesota? Who now maybe down Dalvin Cook. I have no idea with the with the protocols pat like I I don't know what being placed on the COVID list on the absolutely means for Sunday. There was no tweet about him being ruled out or anything like that with Dalvin Cook. Without Dalvin Cook three points in Minnesota? What do you think?
And this was already a weird line because the Rams were two and a half this morning. Last I checked before this show, Rams were two and a half point favorites on the road at Minnesota, but minus won twenty five at Draftking.
So that's the difference that Draft Kings juiced up minus uh minus two and a half. It's minus one ten and three at most other books. But that's why it was minus one twenty five for it.
Yeah, so I'm definitely not betting the Vikings here. If I play this one, it's gonna be the Rams. And like the Dalvin Cook thing might drive the line enough that I just don't want to take it cause, like, I mean, I have a little respect for the Vikings. I think they're a decent team, but like they're two of their most glaring weaknesses the center of their offensive line. I mean, they couldn't draft block a Keem Nicks last week. How are they gonna do against Aaron Donald this week?
My guess is probably not. Well. Yeah, and their defensive backfield, which is like so bad. They just cut for Shud Breeland and I mean not that Breeland was any good, but right, like that's just a disaster. And you know, how are they gonna stop Cooper Cupp right, Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham. So I do think the Rams are gonna win this game. I don't know if they're gonna blow the Vikings out in Minnesota though, that's another story. And I'm kind of depends where the line winds up.
But I'm probably not gonna be too interested in playing this one.
So I think looking at a pat it's like when I just take a step back and look at it, it strikes me as like it strikes me as the right play absent Dalvin Cook, would be the really ugly hold your nose Vikings play here getting points because they always keep games close. The Rams are coming off a short week shorter we again than even the Viking somehow
again for the second straight time. Rams sort of in a cell high sort of momentier, and it would be one like I'd hate to make, but I think over the long terms it's probably you know plus ev, but I couldn't. I wouldn't actually make that bet right it strikes He's like, this seems like maybe a spot because everything looks like the Rams are a much better team.
It's the type of game that the Vikings just randomly show up for and do, but it's just to stay away from me, and Dalvin Cook gives me the excuse. So I'm very excited to do that. The Chiefs who have everyone on the COVID list already and the only one we know who's out is Harrison Butker, so it'll be Elliott Fry kicking. So take that into account. They are still links seven and a half right now, pretty much across the board to the Steelers in Kansas City.
I think I'm expecting them to get back Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey, by the way, like they went on the COVID list early the new protocols maybe, but who really knows. What do you do with this one?
Pat, I almost feel like the line is saying they expect Tyreek Hill and Travis Chelsea to come back early, and if they do. I like the Chiefs at this point, like I have kind of felt all year that the Steelers are a bad team, portraying a five hundred team, a mediocre team, and the Chiefs have been playing their best football of the season. Their defense has gone from just horrendous in that first month to actually really good, and I think a lot of the metrics show that
the Chiefs are now. I think they're the odds on favorite now to win the Super Bowl in a lot of spots, and I can understand why with that defense playing well, and we knew Mahomes was eventually going to get his act together. I don't know if we can say that he's all the way there, but we've seen a couple of his ceiling games in the last three
weeks or so. I think Kansas City is going to cover this if they get their past catchers back, Like if Hill and Kelsey play, Assuming no other major COVID scratches in this game, nothing that really moves the line off of seven and a half and a half, I would lay those points to Pittsburgh.
Yeah, I think that's probably right, assuming that they come back. But man, this is so crazy. I'm just saying, like, you know, betting right now and everything like that is just nuts.
Can I can I give you the like it's weird that we get it as a slow drip, but like you know that we're going to lose basically two percent of the player population this week. It is like the Leftovers on HBO, the HBO series where two percent of the Earth's population just disappeared. And that's what's happening in the NFL every week, except rather than all disappearing at once, it's a slow drip, right, a coffee maker, And it's
just weird. And I can't even imagine what it would be like to work in a book making operation, right, and like having to tweak these lines like every hour on the hour as things change, like just crazy.
I mean minute by minute, right, because God forbid, somebody sees something. But again, they always have advanced info at least, but you've got to be on the ball with them. Cowboys are home against Washington Lank ten and a half on Sunday Night.
Yeah, weird that we've seen Dak not play very well lately, and it's kind of been a sustained thing over like a five game period. I think there was a stat where Dak has averaged There have been seventeen games in Dak's career where he has averaged less than six point yards six point zero yards per pass attempt, and five of them have been since the start of November. Like, he is playing terribly, but he played poorly when they
played Washington in Week fourteen. He was twenty two of thirty nine for two hundred and eleven yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, averaged five point four yards per pass attempt, and they won by seventeen points on the road. So I'm definitely not playing Washington in this one. But I just don't know if I can back the Cowboys with their passing game not quite functional. The Dallas d is playing great though. If I'm betting this, I'm definitely betting Dallas.
I'm staying far away from it, man, like they just I have trouble like figuring out the Dallas offense because that really is not playing well at all. But I just can't back Washington and now Tara Heineke did come off the covid lest day, but still I'm just saying a way, especially with Antonio Gibson banged up, I don't know. Last game Monday night, the Dolphins visiting New Orleans, we
just got it now. The line went from Saints minus three to It looks like for the most part the Dolphins are laying either one or one and a half here, and it does sound like Book is going to be the starter.
What's the total?
Now, let me check that out for you, all right, take a guess, bat. That's what Joe and I like to do on the Look Aheads. We take the guests on the total. I'm gonna see I can tell you what it was if you want. Before I tell you what it was, was it thirty nine before it was thirty nine?
Yes, I'll say thirty five and a half.
It's only thirty seven right now, only thirty seven. But my guess is they gotta they gotta slowly readjust it right, They've got to slowly figure it out. Thirty seven is the latest total.
This is a week where generally I don't want to lock anything in Dan, but I might have to jug down that under if I can lock it in at thirty seven. And like I, when I saw that initial total, I wondered if that was just the recency bias of having seen the Saints pass rush just completely smother Brady last week, a game where Brady was clearly, you know, also frazzled by losing like his top receivers. But man, I don't know that's uh, I'm I'm probably just laying
off this one. Like I've never really been much of a believer in the Dolphins, I've one of the teams I've had a hard time figuring out the entire season. Sure, And yeah, and the Saints are just such a moving target now with their quarterback woes.
Just stay away, I go. Or if you're gonna bet it, wait until Monday night, you know how your week went, see what the COVID situation is, and then do it. Man, goodness, gracious, don't. Yeah, there are a few bets who might want to lock in early. This might be one of them, though, Pat with the with the under, I'm with you on that one, all right, Pat, let's go over your bets one more time. If you remember them, tell me what they were so you could start it. Then I'll give mine, sure.
So I like the Chargers ling ten on the road against the Texans. I like Seattle, which is of this morning, was minus six and a half against the hapless Chicago Bears in Seattle. And I like the under in that Buffalo Patriots game. That is going to be such a raucous event at your holiday gathering then, and that was a forty three and a half last I saw.
Well, I look forward to playing this podcast for my father and brother in law. I will take with my lead. There you go, Billy and Kevin. Bill's getting two and a half from the Patriots, the Ravens getting three from the Bengals, and I'm not kidding. The consensus line since we started this has now flipped to the Raiders getting one. But I'll take the Raiders giving one to the Broncos. So that's gonna do it. I hope everyone has a
wonderful Christmas. To everybody who celebrates, enjoy the football regardless, Enjoy your Sunday. Unless you have an under on the Saints Miami game, probably wait as long as possible to place in your bets. And in the meantime, again, everybody, have a wonderful weekend. We'll be back doing this next week again. We'll probably take a look aheadline, hopefully without all the COVID news and all the all the holiday stuff, but we'll talk to you then