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Everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Bidding Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris. With me, of course, is Matt Parole, host of the Daily Juice podcast. You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty Matt, what's up?
Well, it's week fifteen, Yeah, and we're trying to close hard here and two eighty percent over the last two weeks. Can't beat it.
So we're hot. Now can we end the year hot?
Is the question that's right, And we've got i'll call it an outside chance to finish in the money. We're probably gonna need another four and one week, maybe even a five and oher week, but we're in there now. There are two weeks left in the draft Kings Pro Pick Them Championship, and we have to take a bye in one of the two weeks and we'll talk about it. But man, I hate this late I hate this slate. I do not have any game that I'm like, I'm
really going to pick. So maybe you feel strongly about it, will see, But in my mind, man, if you can convince me that this is not the week to take a bye, then I will be impressed. But let's get into it. We're gonna go through every game on the slate as we always do, and again Matt said, we went four and one. Last week. We hit on the Rams laying five and a half to the Patriots. Again, that was a Thursday night one. Matt tweeted out, I hope you were following him again at Sports Talk Matt.
Kudos to Matt who was all over that game last week. It was like pott it on the table and to the extent he broke a peraltism, which is never ever bet on a favorite laying five and a half, but we did and it worked out. We also hit on the Bucks slaying six and a half to the Vikings, the Colts slaying three and a half to the Raiders, and the Ravens laying one and a half to the
Browns in a pretty entertaining game. The only loss we had was the Steelers getting two and a half from the Bills, which Matt, I don't know you a minute left in the first half, I was feeling really good about that. Bet. Yeah, I thought that that was gonna be one that we're gonna walk away with. And then the second half man, the Bills just totally adjusted and the Steelers weren't able to do anything about it. So
four and one whatever. Again, We've got one bye week left to go, so we might do it this week, we may do next week. We'll have to see. But I don't know, Matt. I want to see what you've got, So start us off. Let me know, give me a pick that you're feeling kind of good about this week.
All right, So you know, one of the benefits of doing these contests is that I'm in a bunch of other contests, so I can bring some of the picks that I already have locked in or I know that we're going to take and those contests and bring it to our contest. It's kind of how it's worked out where my bets and the contest picks have kind of run similarly. So these are three picks that we're going
to use this week. There's no real particular order for it, but we can start with my team because it's my team, and I think the world is wrong about where the Dolphins are right now. I think the Dolphins are banged up. I think it's a rookie quarterback. I'm getting two and a half points with the Pageots and a massive bounce back spot Patriots, I believe will win this game outright. I'm taking the Patriots plus two and a half.
You know, I like this game, and it was one of the few that was on my list of like, yeah, I kind of feel this way. I mean, if you anytime you're giving me Bill Belichick versus a rookie quarterback, I'm always like, yeah, all right, fire that up. The Dolphins are just decimated at the end. I mean, mikea SICKI did return to practice, but I can't imagine he's gonna play. I don't know what's going on with a running back situation. I don't think Miles Gaston is gonna
get to play. Devonte Parker is there, He's not at one hundred percent. There's no Jaquim Grant. It's just kind of a mess. You've got the Patriots coming off a pretty embarrassing loss and a long layoff here where they can kind of lick their wounds and get back into it. Whether or not they're still mathematically alive for a playoff spot doesn't really matter. I think they're gonna come out. But Matt, the one thing is I don't really feel
like I have a great read on this team. I feel like you have you know when they're gonna play well, you know when they're not. Why do you think they're gonna play well here? I mean, is it just that you know, buying lows selling high type of thing or what.
Well, it's that, but it's won the extra time too. It's the fact that I think the Patriots defense, much like the way that they beat the Chargers, they confuse rookie quarterbacks like no end. I mean, they beat the Charges forty five nothing two. I don't think two is the guy. My biggest fear in this game is that Ryan Fitzpatrick gets inserted at halftime and the Patriots lose. So if two was in the game for all four quarters, if Brian Flores is gonna be this is my guy,
I'm riding to it to the end. And I'm not gonna do what I did in the Denver game where Denver totally befuddled him and then they pulled him out. I think the same thing happens here. I think he doesn't have his weapons. If you look at some of the yarded separations for the receivers, the Dolphins are like dead last in separation right now, and that's when they're healthy, and they're not healthy at all. You got a good
second over the Patriots. You got Look, anytime you tell the Patriots the year is over, this is where they win.
This is where they rise up.
And they've already beat in the Dolphins once this year, so I know, historically speaking, everyone's going to use the stat that I think it's one in four over the last five straight up for the Patriots in Miami over the last five years, or sorry in December or later, over the last five meetings.
I get it.
This is a game the Patriots normally lose. But I just think this is a game where you've got too many injuries from Miami. They can't move the football on good defenses, and they rely on their defense to turn the football over, but mostly it's with interceptions. As long as the Patriots don't fumble the football away, I think they find creative ways to move the ball on the Dolphins. And I think everyone thinks that the Patriots are done and plus two and a half give me the Patriots.
Yeah, I mean it's again, it's one of the games that I have on my yet. All Right, I kind of like it. I'm not totally against it, which is surprising because sometimes I'm like, oh, you know, this is one where I could roll with and you're like, nah, man, I'm on the other side. So that's that's something where I think we put in the consensus generally split fifty five on Miami, but the contentsus spread is one and a half right now, not two and a half. So you know, I'm fine with it. I think it's a
good bounce back spot for the Pats. And again I trust Bill Belichick, although Flores is a fine coach, but here, yeah, we don't. We don't love to h we don't, especially without the weapons. I think it's a decent one.
I'll start, Oh, wait, so you do have games.
Oh you just want to go, you can go.
I don't games, So just what games out?
You go with a couple, then you start with yours, because it is true like I'm essentially forcing myself to pick one or two. But you go ahead with a couple, and then when you run out, I will throw maybe a couple of light leans I have if you haven't covered them already.
No, there's three.
There's three games that the uncomfortable playing. I think this new found Mitchell Trubitsky's a good quarterback thing is hysterical. I think this is like fool's gold to the tenth degree fools gold. So the Houston Texans are trash. They are they are awful, and everyone's like, oh my gosh, could Triubitsky have a chance to start? Could he be back next year? This isn't the Vikings are gonna kill the Bears this weekend. This is this is going to be. I think the Vikings are going to wipe the field
with Chicago this weekend. And because they got something to play for, the Bear's got nothing to play for. And the second that you give Tribitsky any love or anything of a praise, it's when this dude falls on his face, laying three and a half. I don't care Vikings minus three and a half over the Bears.
Big So I had five games Matt, five games where I was like, I have a lean on these games. I don't love these games, but I have a lean on them. And the rest legitimately fell into these are toss ups. If Matt has like a strong feeling on them, I'll be able to be talked into it. But not something where I'm definitely going after and you have picked two of the ones where I've had a lean on Vikings laying three and a half to the Bears. I
completely agree. I mean it's I feel like Kirk Cousins is sort of this this you know, entity that you can solve, that you can be like, No, this is a fade Kirk Cousin spot. This is a by Kirk Cousins spot. This is more of a fate of the Bears, which is what you're saying, which I'm completely fine with. But I do think that the Vikings are not a terrible football team. I don't think Kirk Cousins is a
terrible quarterback. It's just much more of when everybody tries to buy into him than I'm like no, no, no no, or when it looks like he's a world beater, then you're like no, no, no, man, you're done for here. Yeah, I agree. I have the Vikings winning this game big, at least I lean that way, So I am good with that one. This is shocking to me that I had five like lean leans and you're just like coming and firing on two of them. So go ahead with your third one. If you hit three out of three.
I don't even know what I'm gonna do, but.
Go ahead, all right, this is a third and this is a numbers play, all right. I don't love this, but Dallas Cowboys are catching three and a half points here. Dallas is I don't like the Elliott injury, making me a little skittish, But I think when you have home dogs late in the year, I think you got to take a long, hard look at them and kind of try to go, Okay, what's the most logical thing that's
gonna happen. And I think Dallas is in a pretty good spot here, catching three and a half points at home, and look, San Francisco can run the football, okay. And I know people are saying Nick Mullins, and this is a team on the road. Why is Dallas a three and a half point dog to anybody at home in the NFC that's going a losing record like the forty
nine ers. I'll take the three and a half points here and take a three point loss to forty to San fran at home and cover on the hook Dallas plus three and a half.
I have been on both sides of this game, Matt, like, I can't get a feel for it. It strikes me as Dallas is okay so long as they're playing against a crappy defense. Right, if they're playing against a decent defense, I don't trust that they're able to move the ball. The line is completely beat up. Andy Dalton is just
nothing whatsoever. At the same time, San Francisco is nothing to write home about, as we saw the What worries me a little bit is the fact that we've seen San Francisco look terrible and then come out the following week and look pretty decent. Now they've got some injuries here, They've got no Deebo Samuel, they may have no Rheem Mostert here. But I don't know, man, I get it. This is a week of home dogs, by the way, right, there are a ton of home dogs this week.
It's there's only one game in the entire on the whole slate with two teams with winning records. Yeah, and you've got a lot of short favorites on the road. Yeah, a lot of home dogs.
Yeah. Well, I don't I'll say this one. I don't even have a mild lean on it, So I don't. I don't even think I would be tucked into the backing Andy Dog. I mean, you know, getting the hook is fine. The consensus line right now is three. So getting the hook certainly is meaningful, especially at home. But I don't know, man, I feel like I bet against the forty nine ers when I shouldn't. So it's something where i'd put it to the side and like it
would be like, all right, whatever. I don't have a strong feeling on it, So if we run out of picks, I'd be happy to go with it. But in the meantime, I think let's put it to the side for now. Let me list the couple of games that you're probably gonna hate but that I have mild leans on. Okay, this one, to me, Matt, seems like the most public play to the point where after this past week, the line seems like it is begging you, begging you, begging you to take the Browns against the Giants four and
a half. The Browns like four and a half to the Giants. I get that the Browns are beat up on defense. I get the fact that they just play the game that they pour their heart and soul into and lost, and so they're a little beat up. The Giants, meanwhile, coming off a terrible loss last week. But again, I don't know if Daniel Jones is gonna play. If he does, it might even be better because he's so limited right now with the hamstring and the ankle. The Giants defense
is okay. The Browns have to keep winning though here to remain in the playoffs. I mean, they're gonna make the playoffs, but to even have a chance at the division. With how the Steelers are looking, it just feels like the Browns are gonna you know, at four and a half, the contentus lines up to six. I don't know. I feel like the Browns, but it feels like a public play to me. So what do you think of that?
Well, it's a public play.
But I'll tell you the bag men showed up today in Vegas for the Browns. The Browns number rocketed here in Vegas four to six.
Big big movement.
Why, bag bag bags of money showed up on the Cleveland Browns. So if you want to go with the professionals as to what they think is going to happen where the large wagers are coming in, it's coming in on Cleveland. I don't mind this play at all, and I like that Giants defense up to a point. But I think Kevin Stefanski now has got enough weapons that he has that offense humming against anybody. You take away
the pass, fine, we'll run down your throat. You want stack the line, great, Baker's going over the top, and he's got guys to pass the football too. I just think this team for the Browns is playing really well late. I think Stefanski is either the finalist or the coach of the Year in the NFL. So I've got no problem back in the Browns here.
Yeah, I've been so impressed with Stefanski and I have he was. I have some shares of Coach of the Year on him. It was twenty to one. Again, not coach of the year is kind of a fun bet, by the way, for futures bet, and maybe we'll talk about that next year when we get into it about
the type of things that you can look at. But he really has impressed me, even if I wasn't that impressed with the higher Another thing here, which I mean it's not a huge deal in this type of game because the Browns don't have the Odell Beckham junior white you know, outside wide receiver at this point. But James Bradbury is I don't I don't remember if he actually
tested positive or close contact. He's a close conduct, but I believe he's been ruled out for this game because even if you're on the list, you need to test negative for five days and they're not gonna be an effort or something like that. So he's out. So I mean that makes it easier probably for Richard Higgins, which doesn't really matter, but he's played great, He's had a great season this year, and losing him on that on the defensive backs, that's that's a tough loss for that team.
So for me at four and a half, it feels public. But yeah, I mean I I just sometimes I also feel like, and again maybe it's not that public given what you're saying, but to me, it just also kind of feels like it's okay to be public sometimes everything.
Yeah, I think it's a no.
I think actually the public will sit, will shie away from this game simply because I think there's some real public people that love the Giants.
Really.
Yeah, the Giants have been a pretty popular public play because I mean, when you watch their defense, I think a lot of people if you're gonna bet on somebody. It's Washington and the New York Giants and the two best teams you know when you watch them at least from week to week, and they've been cashing tickets. I mean that they won four games in a row and people were coming in them with home you know, with with with you know, being.
Plus money dogs.
And so there are some people in the public that do like the Giants and Daniel Jones. And it's just a New York football team too, so you get a more high, high profile, bigger market aside to it. So in Cleveland is kind of people kind of laugh at them, right that they expected Baker to fall in his face on Monday Night football and they expected, you know that the Browns not to rise up into that moment and they put forty two points up on the on the
you know, Baltimore Ravens. So I'm I'm fine with back in the Browns there.
Yeah. I really like this team, man, I really do like. Their running game is great. I think Baker's playing really really at a high level right now. It's They're fun to watch. So yeah, all right, I'm good with that. All right, So there's one I have no idea how you're gonna feel about this one, Matt, I really don't, because you are a noted Bills hater, but you will back them at the right.
Well, I've already teased this game, so I'm already invested. So you're taken the Bills. I'm not gonna hate it.
I actually wasn't. I was going to take the Broncos half boy in Denver. Now I know That's why I thought you were gonna hate it necessarily. So what if you teased it to to what I have?
Pick?
Oh, to a pick?
I got it at six, brought the Packers down to two. Okay, I do like that Saturday two leg teaser coming down. I'm totally ripping this off from from Austin Gale from Profile Football Focus, who gave me, who gave me on the air, who gave me that teaser? And I loved it and I tailed it, so I can't. I can't take it as my own, but I have bet it that's all right to taking the Bills to a pick and the and the Packers down to minus two.
Yeah, and I do. I do think that the Bills are going to win this game. But in Denver, man, it is something where six and a half again, I'd like it, of course if it was at seven. But I do feel like, as much as you know, I don't like Drew Locke and I don't like Denver, and they're so injured and the Bills are playing at such
a high level. Again, the one thing I feel like, even now, even we could say and you might even be able to say it in that Pittsburgh game itself, is that he's inconsistent and you don't know how it's gonna come out. John Brown is out for this game, which, again.
You know, I hate Josh Allen.
Okay, I'm the captain of the Josh Allen.
I can't stay. So I'm with you and everything you're saying, I'm with you.
Yeah.
The only thing I'm concerned about is like, what does Denver have going for it right now? Maybe what's the motivation? What's the angle? Who's playing for?
What?
I mean, what are they getting up for? I mean, Buffalo is playing for everything right now.
Yeah, No, it's true. I mean, if you want to look at something, it is a nationally televised primetime game. I mean, well I guess not primetime, right, is it four thirty or what the on the East Coast, but it's a nationally televised game that they're going to be playing a good a very good team at home. Chance to show something. And again I think you know Buffalo is vulnerable. The Steelers couldn't take advantage of it because their offensive line can't get any push, but they're very
vulnerable against the run. And I think you're going to see a lot of Melvin Gordon, who is playing well and now is not going to be suspended because the hearing was pushed off the next week. Their defense isn't that great, but again, they have enough weapons to get by on the passing game. No offense obviously didn't play less or he played and then was removed because of the illness Jerry Dudy's good tim Patrick is really one of the more underrated players right now in the NFL.
So it strikes me as a backdoor cover sort of game. And again I can't stress enough I don't love this game like ex then I liked in the games. You know, we sort of picked them off, but it strikes me as a backdoor cover. I do think the Bills are going to win, so I do like your teaser. I may actually trail that as well, so.
That it's a good teaser.
It's a good tea.
Yeah, and it's one day.
It's Saturday, so it gives you something on the Saturdays, and it lets me kind of ignore, not really ignore. But I got my I got a lot of money going on this Saturday for college football games, so I'm gonna be much more invested in college So just tease those two games and hopefully just cash it and walk away.
All right, all right, so let's put that game to the side and let me get to my last one, which I can't imagine you're gonna be okay with this, but because of the number. But the Rams laying sixteen and a half to the Jets in LA, the Rams are good. We have known this now, Matt for a while. And you bet them, kudos to you. What did you bet them to win the division?
Or I bet that's big to win the West when they are one game behind Seattle at plus two to sixty five.
Okay, yeah, they're a legitimate team. Kudos to you. Know, I thought when Wade Phillips left on the defense, but Staley has really done a good job. Their defense is legitimate, their offense is good enough, and cam Akers is good. The Jets have an okay run defense actually, but I think Acres will be good enough. And if not, then I think golf that Jets don't get pressure. That's what
messes up with Goff. I think he's gonna be able to pick them apart with Woods and Cup and the Jets are so abysmal that like a normal number where you look at sixteen and a half points, Yeah, that's value on the Jets.
Right again on the rams. It's value on the rams. Well, I'm with you if if you want to lay this, I'm okay.
I I've seen people that I respect say that they would lay this number up to thirty that they wouldn't and they aren't even not even kidding, Like they're legitimately like they're gonna run the ball and they're going to just run it and run it and run it and run it. And the game's gonna be a where very quickly the Jets are not going to score anything. Yeah, and they'll probably turn the ball over two or three times and it's gonna be like a thirty five nothing win.
Right, It's very difficult. I mean again, and you saw Seattle, Seattle like lives to play one score games like they do whatever they can to Seattle. You know, won that game so ridiculously easy. I the Rams have. You know, there's blood in the water right now. They are. They are really rolling. They're gonna trying to put away that division. I don't know, man, it really strikes me as just a game where they're gonna win by like twenty five points.
I don't think you can put a line high enough to be quite honest, we're I mean, like the whole deal. I talk about this on the Daily Juice a lot, but like, what is a line. A line is a number that the book makers put up so the professionals will take the dog, right, That's what a line is.
That's all it ask.
Okay, they're trying to set a number there because the publics can take a favorite all ways, they all take the favorite. So how high can I put the number up so we get the money coming in on the other side. And I don't know if they can set a number high enough to get the pros to come in.
Here on the Jets, yeah, and it's already moving up. It's already at seventeen and a half. Just realistically, the Jets are one of these teams that you realistically cannot back no matter what under any circumstances. And yeah, occasionally they cover, like and they showed up against the Raiders that time where we had the Raiders Lenks having and a half points. But with this the defense is too strong I think for the Rams. Ye, all right, we'll get it there, let's go through. Then that's it for me.
I'm done. Do you have any others that you have leans on or you want to just turn that?
Not really?
I mean I think I have gone back and forth. I text you before. I don't want to use it. I'm just making this a proclamation. It's going to be a bet that I'm making. But I'm taking the Saints to beat the Chiefs.
Right, Yeah, so let's talk about that a little bit, you like. So the Saints are what getting two and a half from the Chiefs in casey right.
Which is an awful line, by the way, which is not which I'm really mad at DraftKings are putting that line there. That's a joke, cause that line's gonna close at three and a half, right, So they put it at two and a half thinking the money would come the other way.
I don't know.
They thought that Drew Brees was playing and thus everyone would come crashing in on the Saints.
So that's why they put it at two and a half.
With this line under three, it's not playable for us because of that reason. But yeah, I look, I think this Saints team is going to put together a type of performance that the Patriots had a couple of weeks ago against the Chargers, where everybody was like, oh, oh, they're not gonna be able to score, they can't do anything, and then Sean Payton comes up with a crazy game plan that takes advantages and exploits everything with the Casey's
Chief defense can't do. And they're coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Eagles, and the Chiefs are just treading water. I mean they much like this, like the Steelers will benefit from a loss here before they go to the postseason. They need to figure things out and they need to kind of get back and write the ship a little bit, because I think everything is trending in the wrong direction for the Chiefs right now and they don't have a killer instinct.
They're bored.
They're not playing tight or tough games for four quarters, and I think that could really burn them. In the playoffs, come a fourth quarter team that may be able to rise up and come back on them and knock them out. So I think they lose this game to the States on Sunday.
Interesting, Yeah, I mean we talked about it. I don't know if I can get there. I mean I with two and a half, I can't get there. I know, Like, yeah, we talked about it, and the consensus line right now is at three. I like where your head is at with it. And we talk about all the time there is something missing with the Chiefs, right, I mean even this last game against the Dolphins, and you actually in one of the other contests, you had the Chiefs right
over the Dolphins. What was it seven seven and a half?
Uh seven?
Yes, okay, Yeah, so they they could have put that game away pretty easily.
And I mean they threw three interceptions in that football game and they still could have covered and they didn't. I know, I mean I was just like, I mean that's why two and the Dolphins they did nothing, and that with all those turnovers, they should have won that game.
With all the turnovers, I mean, Chiefs.
Were literally handing them the football game and they couldn't take it if they do that with the Saints.
The Saints are taking it.
Yeah, yeah, I mean it's you're making good points. We're not gonna put in the contest. But I am thinking about how I will bet it, generally speaking, And yeah, I was surprised that it was two and a half, especially after the Saints lost to the Eagles. But yeah, it's an interesting it's interesting. I'll take a closer look.
But I'm gonna watch the I'm gonna wait and I'm gonna watch the public bet against it, and I'll take I'll sprinkle on the money line, but I'll take as many points as you want to give me here on the Saints, and I'm hoping to get over three, three and a half to four, whatever it might be. And then you know, look, if it got really stupid, it won't get there. But it ever got to like six, then fine, I would tease it down and I would
take the Chiefs. But I think this is a game where you may need s Sir Patrick Mahomes magic coming back late, trying to drive this team down the field to win a football game, and I don't know if you can do that against the Saints.
Interesting, all right, Well, I like where your head is at. I don't have you know, the intestinal fortitude depend against Patrick Mahomes at this moment, but I get it. All right, Let's get to some of the other games here. What do you think about the Packers are laying eight and a half to the Panthers in Green Bay. I know you accuse it down.
Yeah, Saturday game. I don't like the number being over seven there. I think they win the football game. I think they'll win it by seven. It's it's just it's a number for me. I don't like that number. I don't think it's a blowout victory. But I do think they win the game by seven.
Yeah, I agree. I you know, I it's not Bridgewater generally speaking. If you're giving Bridgewater a big line, I'm always I always like him as the possibility to cover. But I'm not backing the Panthers.
No, He's Teddy covers man, It's what he does.
I know.
He just he covers big lines like crazy because he throws the football around.
But they're not.
I mean, DJ Moore is out of this game now in Oh he is in.
He's in. He's okay the team to play, So that that's also something where that's bi. Yeah, yeah, he's back, so he's gonna be in the game. But I still there's no Christian McCaffrey.
He's out.
You know, Mike Davi has been a fine film. But the problem with the Packers is I feel like the Packers could just as easily win a game by forty as they could keep it really close at this point, right, So it's hard ever for me to basically be like, well, there's value. You know, Teddy's gonna cover, because I really just I don't have a good sense of when Aaron Rodgers is just gonna be like, this is kind of an f you game I'm putting up. You know, I'm
throwing five touchdo busses, so I'd leave it alone. How do you feel about the Bucks laying five and a half to the Falcons in Atlanta? It's your magic paralism, So I don't know if you prefer the Falcons or if you just don't like either side.
It's a no play.
But I mean it's it's a game where the paral two team teaser that will happen on Sunday is eyeballing the Bucks big time if it gets to six, and I can tease it down. I will use it in a teaser. I think the Bucks will win the football game. I think the Atlanta Love is gonna calm down a little bit this week. But I mean, you know, I gotta see injuries. You know, Julio's playing, right.
He's been so out. I think he hasn't been declared out, but the coach, you know, they said basically earlier in the week that he is quote week to week and when you're weak to week in week fifteen, and he's not practicing, So I bet he's going to be out, and I think you can bet it that way.
Yeah, So if he's out, I think that I like if. I just like the Bucks to win the football game. But there is definitely something wrong with the Bucks. Yes, and their offense is a is a problem. I think, you know, much like what I thought was going to happen. I thought they'd make the playoffs as a wild card team. I bet them to win ten games. I think they'll win ten games. They've got eight need two more wins. You beat the Falcons twice and you got the ten
wins you need. They got the Lions next week as well, and I just think that this But when you look at how they scored. They got a lot of really good breaks in that football game last week that let it become a blowout. Yep, it wasn't so much of their offense, you know, going up there and throw up a big number. I mean that Gronk pass interference call at the end of the half. Yeah, I mean when have you seen that thing get called? Yeah, Like, nobody gets that call, and they got it for you know,
score late before half and whatnot. So I'm still not sold that this team actually likes playing in this offense for Bruce arians, but I am comfortable hearing them to win the football game.
Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you. I don't And again, the Falcons are decent. You know, their defense is decent. They've been playing better over the last several weeks. So yeah, I'm with you. It just kind of a stay away from me. What about the Titans laying ten and a half to the Lions in Tennessee.
It's just too much.
I mean, you know, ten and a half for this Titans team is just like, what, like, I just can't do it. I think they win the game, obviously, And this is another game that I may look to teas as well. If I can get that thing down, you know, if I get it down closer to three, I'll be more comfortable teasing it and taking the Titans.
But ye, I mean Stafford's playing right, Nope, he's out for sure.
Nope, he's not not either one, not either one.
We just don't know.
I am. When I'm considering it from a betting perspective and from a fantasy perspective, I'm assuming he's out. He hasn't practiced this week. They're going nowhere, he's banged up. I think it's gonna be Chase Daniel.
Well, I mean, then maybe I would consider it, but it's still double digits, so it's still it's still a lot. But I mean again, this would be definitely if it is. If Stafford's out, I'll tease this for sure, this will be part of my teaser.
But yeah, this is one. Realistically, I don't love it or anything like that. But I'm actually, well, I don't love it. If I had to pick a side, it probably would be the Tits. I mean, just you saw what they did. Derek Henry's gonna run for two hundred yards in this come and it's just gonna They're gonna be able to do whatever they want to do offensively,
and it's just a matter off. If Stafford is in then I can see sort of the you know, Stafford manages to have the back door covers and keep things close. If it's Chase Daniel who barely throws the ball past the line of scrimmage, I don't know. I'd almost feel okay with them laying even the ten and a half. It's a big number. It's a big number, but I think i'd actually probably feel okay with it if it were Daniel. But anyway, let's go to the next one.
Colts link seven and a half to the Texans in Indianapolis.
All right, so we know the Texans are done right and after last week that they're pretty much toast.
Yep, the Colts will have a monster victory.
I'm just a little concerned that they start believing their own press clippings in this game. And it's a divisional game, so over seven and a half is over sevens wide didn't like it, but I do think the Colts are going to beat the Texans here, and I do think I think it's it's a quick game. Run the football, get out of there with a win, don't worry about the margin.
Yeah, I agree with you. It's not a game that I want to go near. And again, we saw two weeks ago where we wound up being on the right side even though we run on the right side, which you knew because you didn't like that game. I talked into it and then we went with Then we won, yay, even though we were clearly the wrong side. I do think that the Texans are going to be able to keep this one close. I think the Colts are going to win for sure, But I do think the Texans
over a touchdown. I just can't because Watson. The Colts defense is not strong enough to prevent Deshaun Watson from doing Deshaun Watson things, you know, especially he's got perhaps Brandon Cook's back, which it looks like he might, so it's a stay away from me. I agree. This one's interesting though, Matt. How do you feel about Washington getting five and a half from the Seahawks in Washington?
Alex Smith is out right.
We don't know. But if Alex Smith is out I think about it both ways, mad because I do kind of have pretty different feelings on the game depending on who's that quarterback. If Alex Smith is in, I kind of like Washington. If he's not, I kind of like Seattle.
I know it's five and a half, but you know, is Gibson playing.
No, Gibson's almost certainly not gonna play.
So if Gibson and Smith are out, yes, the other side, I'm totally comfortable taking the sealess, totally comfortable, So.
I might leave that one then on the side to say that one's going in if and I think that's what's gonna happen. Smith may play. He may play at this point because he's sort of trending up and everything like that.
But that what's make them in the first half too. By the way, I don't know he was numbers. Yeah, his numbers in the first half are horrible. In the second half, he like, I don't know what happens, but he just he just starts playing like Joe Montana on the second half.
He's great.
Yeah, I know. I love Alex. I mean, I think this whole story is amazing, and I've actually always liked him. I've always thought he was kind of an underrated QB. But yeah, this is this is one where if it is Haskins, and I feel pretty confident Gibson's out. But if it's if it's Haskins and there's no Gibson, Yeah, this just strikes you. The defense is legitimate for Washington without question. But with that offense, even though it's a paratism, I would feel okay.
With doing it. Yeah, it's I don't like it.
I don't like playing it, But given the circumstances, I think the line would be much different if Alex Smith gets ruled out.
I don't think that line's five and a half. I think it's gonna go over seven most right now.
It's steady at five and a half. That's where it is, and it's basically on the bed anal lizer. It's split down the middle, which I think it's fair. I think five and a half at this point, assuming that Smith does play, that's a pretty fair line.
That well, yeah, because the defense for Seattle is awful.
Right well, it's Flay. It's playing a little better of late. It's playing a little better of late now that you know Adams is back healthy. It's playing a little better. But I agree, it's not it's not great and Washington. I mean the thing about Russell Wilson right now, who you know is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Don't get me wrong, he's taking a ton of sacks at this point. He's making some poor decisions at time,
which is like the anti Russell Wilson. If you're gonna give me that defense and the pressure they're going to get on Wilson, you know, it's a little Carson Wentzy in the way he's like holding the ball way too long, way too long, and then eventually he's just sacked. Then you know, it's something where I think they might be able to keep the ball close, but again they game close. But again, if it's Dwayne Haskins, forget it, Like I'm
just not going anywhere near. How about the Ravens length thirteen and a half to the Jaguars in Baltimore.
I just talk about letdown spot, right, I mean, just you're you're asking for the Jags to come out and cover that line, and that is just a perfect there is. Just if you want to talk about the one double digit line where I'm comfortable taking the thirteen and a half, it's Jacksonville. I would be comfortable taking that plus thirteen. If you want a big dog on the card. There's your big dog on the card.
Hey, you know what, I'm gonna put that as an maybe actually, just because again, I as you know, Gardner Minshew is a fun guy. But if it were Glennon then I would be like, no, it doesn't matter. I don't care. Like I'm fine with the Ravens. It doesn't really matter me. Now they have up, by the way, all these COVID issues where Hollywood Brown and Miles Boyk
and are on the COVID list. My understanding is that they're just close contacts and they were designated as such early enough that they are if they do test negative, they are going to play on Sunday, And to the extent that makes a difference, obviously doesn't really matter. The Jaguars are completely vulnerable to the tight end. It's going
to be a huge game for Mark Andrews. But I think Minshew is going to be able to put up points, man, because he's just gonna go nuts and run around like a maniac and be able to sort of keep it close. He give me thirteen and a half.
Yeah, just a back door special, Yes, just a back door special.
It we'll put it as maybe. Okay, let's get to this one, Matt is really interesting. I've been on both sides of this game as I've worked through it, and I've kind of dug into it for fantasy purposes. Cardinals lank six and a half to the Eagles in Arizona.
This is a really every week there's a game I hate. This is the game that I hate because everything screams Cardinals here to me. You're talking about start number two for a rookie. You've got tape now on Jalen Hurts. You know what he looks to do. You know, he doesn't throw the ball all that well down the field, but he likes to get you into passing situations and then run and pick up the first down. Cardinals defense is athletic Buddha Baker and company. They can run, They're fast,
they can run you down. You can run the ball on them with a big, physical offensive line. Eagles don't have that. You have to look at the receivers or the Eagles. They're okay, Miles Sanders in a monster game, you assume that the Cardinals are going to stack up to stop the run and not let him have a big game run in the football and put it all on Jalen Hurts his shoulders. On the other side, you got a team and that you got an offense that has not looked great over the last couple of weeks.
But nice win on the road against the Giants last week, and Kyler Murray ran a bit more than I thought he was go I'm going to picked up a couple of first downs. I mean, this screams Cardinals. But I feel like it's too public.
I don't have it. I don't have the feel for it. I really don't. I mean, I like, I think Maray looks a little healthier lately, Like right, he does, he was running a little bit more. I think the Eagles are so decimated on the events. I think it's going to be an absolutely monstrous DeAndre Hopkins game. I think they're going to be able to score. I don't have a sense yet about Jalen Hurts and what they're going to be able to do to you know, like, Okay, now we've seen him, now we know what this is.
They designed a ton of runs form, but he's incredibly athletic. When he gets out of the pocket and things sort of start breaking down. Receivers have a way of getting open, which is good because the receivers for the Eagles are not particularly fast, and so you need something to be able to get them separation. So just a game where I at one point I talk myself into the Cardinals, another point, I talk myself into the Eagles, which means I'm talking myself out of the game because I just
don't have a good sense of it. So I think sort of, I feel like you were if there's a game where I was just like, I've gotten nothing on this game. It's not a game that I really want to touch.
So Doug Peterson's nineteen and three right or something stupid like that, with backup quarterbacks and not having Carson Wentz as the starter, like, it's just he's a much better coach. He calls a better game, the guys respond better, So there's something to that. I think they hated Carson Wentz. I think they absolutely hate that guy's guts, and so they're playing hard for Jalen Hurts, and I think there's something to be said for that. But cross country on the road, I mean, I don't know.
I mean, I just I gun to my head, I'm taking the Cardinals.
I just I can't tell if Hurts was sort of a novelty or whether or not he's going to be able to have this sustain so for fantasy purposes, as you'll see, like, I think he's a guy you can probably rely on because I think he's gonna do enough of his legs to get out there, whether or not they're gonna be enough to hang with the Cardinals, who I think are probably gonna play better offensively given the injuries to the Eagles and given the fact that Kyler
Murray is generally getting healthier. It's just it's too tough for me. It's a stay away last one Steelers laying twelve and a half to the Bengals in Cincinnati.
You know this is.
I the line just is too heavy for me with this Steelers team right now, just because of where Ben is and what the Steelers have looked like. I mean, they couldn't move the football the way that they should have against the Bills. I think something's wrong with Pittsburgh to be quite honest, if I had, if I had to bet, I'd take the points.
Yeah, I despise this game as well. There is something wrong with the Steelers for sure. I mean they can't they can't run the ball, but part of that is the fact that they've absolutely their offensive line gets zero push. Yeah, they can't. Ben is desperate to not get sacked, so that every throat.
Do you think he's hurt?
I think that Ben how old is Ben thirty eight thirty? However old Ben is? Ben is old and has taken a beating in his whole life. So I don't think he's one hundred percent. I think he's good enough to get out there, but I think that they are desperate to protect him and what they're.
Doing with the one thing that it was difference between Roethlisberger and Brady. Brady didn't lose the velocity on the football.
Yeah, Brady always had the RPMs.
He always could get the ball out fast, and that's what saved his bacon, right he could. Those were lollipop throws against the Bills. Yeah, there was nothing behind those throws.
I think the elbow injury that he suffered last year at his age probably took took the fastball away.
Yeah.
Really, what is right? And he's underthrowing guys right like you saw. Yeah, I think two weeks ago where you know, James Washington had the cornerback beat and Ben just couldn't get it there. He couldn't get it there, and they want to get the ball out. So this is I'm I'm definitely worried about the Steelers long term against the Bengals, which, by the way, it might even be not that Brandon Allen there's anything to write home about, but it might
be Ryan Finley. In this game, we were like, oh my god, the defense is going to destroy that team. But I don't know what. No, I just don't want to do it. If you're telling me that I have to take the Steelers against anyone laying double digits, I'm just probably not doing it. At the same time, I can't go with the Bengals like they're just they're just abysmal. They're just a terrible football team and they're poorly coached. And you have called this forever, but it's just I can't back.
How did Zach Taylor get that? You you have you.
Have been like banging that drum since I first.
Make because I covered the dude in college. Yeah, I was.
I was there when he was at Nebraska. I was covering the Huskers, and at no point in time did I ever hear anyone say that, like, you know, that Zach Taylor guy, he'd be a good coach.
Do you know, Matt that now I'm remembering this as we're talking here. The first time I heard you mentioned that was when you were a guest last year on the Betting Pros NFL podcast and we're talking about the Bengals and you had this mini tirade against Zach Taylor. That's that's so funny that it's just coming.
He's just he's just awful. He's just he never should have gotten that job. And just because he had, like he breathed the same air as Sean McVay, that was good enough for the Bengals. Okay, thirty six year old quarter and ex quarterback coach, let's let's hire him as the head coach. And it's like, you know, look, he got Joe Burrow and that's a huge feather in his cap to have Joe Burrow. And so you're gonna win
games and look decent with Joe Burrow. But your real coaching acumen comes out when you don't have superstars.
And look what the Bengals look.
Like now and again they I mean, look, their offensive line is terrible, but I mean things like you know, it's silly things like Giovanni Bernard. And maybe I am a little angry about this because of fantasy purposes and where I might have had him ranked. But the idea that Gio Bernard fumbles on the first play and then he's benched until the second half, like and then you know, Trevion Williams fumbles but he gets back. It's just little things like that, just I feel like, you know, it's tough.
The season without Burrow, the season certainly gotten away from them. I can't back them, but I really don't want to back the Steelers. No double datus, all right, So here's where we are at. We like the Patriots getting two and a half from the Dolins. We were both good with that. We liked the Vikings laying three and a half to the Bears. So those are two games that we were both like, yeah, okay, we can lean that way.
We kind of came around on the Browns laying four and a half to the Giants, and we kind of like the Rams laying sixteen and a half to the Jets. We've got three other games that I think we were basically talking through, you like the Cowboys getting three and a half from the forty nine ers. We might like the Seahawks laying five and a half to the Washington
football team if both Gibson and Alex Smith are out. Yeah, and we kind of maybe could see ourselves taking the Jaguars getting thirteen and a half points from the Ravens. Is that fair?
Oh?
Yeah? Okay, So which one you can I'll let I'll let you take the fifth one here, Matt, do you like the cow Is that your favorite? The Cowboys plus three and a half or no?
I would prefer if Smith and Gibson are out, I would prefer to take Seattle.
That's going to be the game. Then that's fine. Now what if they're in? Do you prefer the Cowboys plus three and a half from the Niners or the Jaguars plus thirteen and a half from the Ravens.
WHOA, that's a really good question, and again.
We're not locking ourselves in.
I would say the Cowboys, don't know.
I mean, the Cowboys are more likely because they're at home and they're catching three and a half, and I like home dogs at plus three and a half.
Okay, that's fine. Again, that's not a game. This is more of a in a slate where I am like, man, I don't really know. I've talked myself into both sides of that Cowboys forty nine Ers game, so that's fine with me. Cowboys plus three and a half. Okay, So those are the unofficial picks here for our uh for
the contest and for the week. Patriots getting two and a half from the Dolphins, Vikings length three and a half to the Bears, brownslaying four and a half to the Giants, Rams lank sixteen and a half to the Jets, and the Cowboys getting three and a half from the forty nine ers. So all right, that's a good mix. I adds usual Matt. Once we talk it through, I like the bets a little bit better than I did coming through, which is why this podcast is good just
for us. But again, we do have a bye week left, so unless we feel, you know, comfortable, we may take it this week, or we may punt this week. Even if we don't take it this week and our contest ends for purposes of you know, our picks in it, we'll still be back every week. We'll be back week seventeen talking about it.
We'll be back wen we gotta bet it, We got to bet it.
We gotta bet it. We don't do it for the contest. We actually, you know, do the betting. So we're there, all right, excellent as always, Please tune into the Daily Juice My goodness, I mean the Daily Juice podcast the best. How many people in the Discord channel now, Matt, I always like.
To talk about it in the in totality?
Yeah, do you have any idea?
Yeah, the's eighteen hundred people who are signed up for the Discord Chat that we started a month and a half ago. On a given day, on a given like Primetime Thursday night, Monday night game, we'll have over two hundred and fifty people in there.
It is all that man watching that. I'm telling you, I'm in there. Sometimes I'm not because I'm doing a lot of fantasy. But watching that Ravens game the end of that game with everybody in the Discord, oh my god. It's just fun. Betting pros like kampslash Chat. It's so fun just to be with other people who have action on a game, who are talking about it.
It's a great It's a virtual bar. What's what it is. It's a virtual bar.
It's so fun, totally free. You don't have to be just go betting pros like kampslash Chat sign up. It's a ton of fun to do. And Matt's in there all the time. And again, Matt, you sometimes give plays in.
There, so I drop a lot of plays. I'll when I add things. If I add a prop, or if I add something officially for the Daily Juice, could be tracked the bets on the Daily jew So if I officially put something in play, I hit at every one and everybody sees it. So like I put that teaser that we talked about, the Saturday football teaser for the Packers and the Bills into the Discord Chat. No one's heard on the podcast yet, but if you're on the Discord Chet, you got that will before everybody else.
Yes, absolutely, it's a great place. And ps as soon as the football season is over, probably gonna take a couple of days to catch my breath the regular season, but then my baseball projection start. So that's going to be a lot of fun because it's going to be talking about a lot of wind totals will drop it off Discord Channel, Matt and I will still talk about it. I'm sure we'll do all that good stuff anyway. For
now thanks for tuning in. You've got our bets. I will tweet them out on Saturday as to what exactly we are doing and our favorite plays, but until then, have an excellent couple of games. You're listening to this after the game, but I hope you enjoyed this crazy Raiders Chargers game. That's about that, and we will talk to you here on the same podcast channel next week.
SA