Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is time to talk about our best bets if we can, given everything that's going on in week fifteen here in the NFL season. Great guest today to do that with me it is Read Wallach, senior editor over at bets Sided. Find him on Twitter at his name at read Wallak. By the way, did I pronounce her last? I didn't
even ask? Is that how you pronounce her?
Yeah? All natural? That was great?
Yeah, beautiful? No, no prap? What's that's w A L l A h? Just you know on Twitter?
Read Thank you for joining me today in what I admit is probably the most difficult like Thursday show to talk about our weekend best bets because the COVID outbreak.
But I mean that's why I brought you on. I want the best, you know.
Yeah, No, this is this is when we thrive.
Adversity guy is getting ruled out left and right, spreads up in arms from the openers. This is when you know, the going gets tough, the tough get going.
This is gonna be I think we can be honest about it. Okay, we're gonna recommend some bets, but obviously COVID maytime. One of the bets that I'm going to recommend already has been moving because of COVID news. They can just before we start a quick so everybody listening, you don't have to run and bet these right now.
Take your time, like see how things develop.
But as of right now, this is where we're going to land on some stuff, and we'll do our best to give some caveats.
All right, we're going to get into it.
This again is our three best bets of the weekend, spread, money, line, total, whatever we want to do, and a couple of housekeeping items before we do. Subscribe to our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros later today might be probably after or before you listen this. Who knows, I'm doing a props betting live stream, or I'm just gonna come out, use our Betting Pros cheat sheet and go through some of my favorite player props for the Thursday night game.
I'll do the same on Saturday. To do that and our latest offer from bet MGM new customers when you use the code juice one hundred. Can bet ten dollars on any NFL team to win their game, win two hundred dollars in free bets if that team scores a touchdown again New Customers Cojuice one hundred that is available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona, and Wyoming. All right, quick, let's run through last week.
Our guest Pat Fitzmorris went one and two with his best bets. He hit on Jacksonville and Tennessee under forty three and a half. He missed on the Jets getting five and a half from the Saints and the Bengals getting one from the forty nine ers.
I went two and one.
As everybody knows, I took the other side of that game. Don't really know if that turn was the actual right side, but it was a winner in that one. Another game that was probably the wrong side but was also a winner for me was the Ravens getting two and a half in that game. I did miss on the Falcons and the Panthers under forty two and a half, So I'm now twenty one and twenty one on the year. Let's do better. We'll start today. Read you are our guest to get the first pick.
What do you got?
Yeah, So I'm going to go with the Patriots plus two and a half against the Colts. I think that's pretty much the market number as of this record, and the three picks I made are as of now not COVID effected, so hopefully that holds up.
But this one in particular really caught my eye.
These are two teams coming off of a buy in Indianapolis and New England, and this was a pick them in the look ahead market. So I find it fascinating that this line has shifted two and a half points towards the Colts.
This was a spot I was looking at back Indianapolis.
Actually, I think New England's a little overvalued in the market, but now it feels like everyone feels that way because now the line's gotten the other way.
So again, I make this a pick. So I'm gonna play New England.
And really, you know Colts linebacker saying we want Mac Jones to beat us after you know he only threw three attempts against Buffalo, Well that might actually be a problem because the Colts do have a good run defense.
But they're actually sixteenth in EPA per pass.
So I think mac Jones is going to have some success through the air on the fast Track at Lucas Oil Stadium, and listen, mac Jones. He doesn't make mistakes. He's gonna go through the reads, He's going to go through the progressions, make the easy pass, Carson Wentz. You know that he's gonna make some turnover, He's going to make some crazy passes. He's gonna give New England a So I like New England as an underdog, and also
I think this is an amazing teaser. Spot got that over a touchdown at eight and a half, So yeah, give me New England.
I think that they're the better team and this should be a pick them.
Yeah.
I love it as a teaser for sure. With two and a half, you get it to eight and a half. I do love that. I have a lot of trouble with this game.
Read.
First of all, I've had a lot of trouble with the paths the whole year, right because I've sort of been on the whole Pats are overrated, then, like this is just what it is.
They're not.
You know, if you have to make Macdones beat you. I think Macdones is a fine rookie quarterback, but I don't trust him to be able to carry the load necessarily if you can't run the ball. But it is interesting to me that this line is two and a half, Like, you're right, this struck me as a pick them game, so there must be money coming in though right on the cults, I assume that sharp betters are backing the Colts, which I don't fully understand. Like if you're getting to
do you think this gets to three? By the way it's been sitting out there two.
And a half.
I feel like this is if this goes to three, everyone starts immediately betting New England, and then it goes back to two and a half. I feel like this closes two and a half. Maybe it comes down a little bit again. I just what happened over the bye week that is changing this market to and half once. I agree New England is overvalued in the macro of the NFL, but in this particular spot, give me Bill Belichick.
As an underdog.
You know, I think mac Jones is able to keep this game close enough where New England's a chance to win at the end.
Yeah, and by the way, I mean, Buffalo had a perfectly fine run defense and New England they knew they were going to run. They ran the same play and they just ran down their throats. So as good as the Cults are, I mean, we saw again Leonard Fournette have no trouble running the ball in the starly against
them as well. So yeah, man, it is weird, right because both teams are off a bye, so you would think what has changed suddenly to make this spread sort of start to move and again now it's been hanging at it two and a half for a little bit, but you're right. Early on it was, you know, one point or something like that.
It was very interesting.
I look, if I have to go away, I'm certainly taking the Pats with the points for sure. If I have to go away, I'm probably staying away from it because man, I don't I just I don't know. I don't have a good read on the Patriots team yet or though or the Colts. By the way, the Colts sometimes come out there and you're like, oh, you're the
best team in the NFL. I get it now, But they also come out there and Carson Wentz is about to throw a ball left handed, you know, right to the linebacker and have it run back for a pick Sixugh, the worst, the worst. So I'm I leaned towards their way, but I agree with you. It's one of my favorite teaser pieces to get the Pats definitely up to eight and a half.
So all right, I like it there. I'm gonna be honest.
I don't love a lot of games this weekend like I did, Like I liked the Eagles, which were laying four and a half against Washington before it moved to seven because of all the COVID news, I'm sure, and all the injuries stuff like that. So I will be honest that a lot of my picks are a little lukewarm, but we make picks. We're fine. I'm going to go with the Packers laying five and a half to the Ravens. It was four and a half when I looked at it when it opened. It's a dead number. It's a
weird sort of number. But I think the bottom line is I don't love what I hear out of the Ravens camp about Lamar. I really don't. And even earlier today it just said he's going to be like they're going to take it right up until game time to know whether or not he's going to go, So even if he goes, he's going to be limited, Like this.
Is just what we're going to see.
And I think the fact that they signed Josh Johnson sort of suggests, Okay, we are really concerned whether or not he's going to be able to go. But if he does go, if he doesn't go, as much as this game is important to him, every game is important to them, Like they're probably going to win this division as much as every team is right there, and the same sort of thing. I think in the end, they'll
probably be able to pull it out. You attack the Packers for the most part on the ground, and I think a big part of their ground game is the fact that Lamar Jackson is so mobile. So if he does play and his mobility is compromised, as I would expect, that is going to affect it. And if not, like you know, kudos to Huntley, but not sort of the same. And really I just don't know how they expect to
stop the Packers. I know Aaron Rodgers had a quote setback with the toe and everything like that, but what you have is last week, I like the Ravens because I said, you know what, all their injuries to the secondary, which is totally decimated by injuries, that's not as big a deal against team like the Browns, who doesn't really have that prototypical number one or number two receiver, number three receiver, that's not how they.
Run their offense.
But here you've got DeVante Adams and you've got the number two pass offense in terms of DVOA against the twenty sixth defensive DVOA against the pass team in the Ravens. So with their injuries with Lamar Jackson, this just strikes me as a game here that the Packers, even in Baltimore, are gonna roll. It's uncomfortable, right because it's on the road. It's five and a half. That's just a dead number. If Lamar Jackson was at full health, I would feel
less comfortable with it. But he's gonna if he plays, is gonna be limited, not gonna be able to run as much. The passing game is not really working. And if it's Huntley, like, good job coming back against the Browns thankfully and covering that spread for me, But I have no faith that he's gonna be able to really attack this offense. So for now I like him at five and a half. But I'm interested to hear your thoughts on that.
I don't hate to play at all, and what you mentioned about the Raven's decimated secondary that against Aaron Rodgers, I mean, you know, whatever tow is messed up, I mean, he's gonna be able to get his you know, I think that this number I think is sitting there. It's kind of like a middle number where it's if Lamar plays, is gonna tick down to maybe four. Ifdley plays, maybe this goes up to seven, because like you said, five and a half is kind of that dead zone where it's an insignificant number.
So I don't hate the play.
I'm kind of feeling if Huntley plays, what about the over Yeah yeah, maybe you got like I mean we saw Miles Garrett that scoop and score. You know, maybe Huntley makes a mistake, whereas if it's Lamar, maybe even almost lower scoring, they go even closer to the best less mistakes. So that's kind of how I'm looking to attack it. If Huntley's ended up, if he ends up playing, I'm gonna look probably towards the over because I think you're right.
The Packers are gonna get whatever they want on offense.
Yeah, it's forty three and a half, that's not you know, you don't need any sort of crew that's low.
I mean, there are a lot of low totals.
This week, by the way, So I'm totally good with that play. And yeah, I agree with you. I mean, man, I'd almost rather Lamar play in this game because only because I right, because I think that realistically, if he plays, and you know, I love Lamar Jackson, but first of all, he has not played well in several weeks, whether it was the illness that he's been down, whatever that is that he was on the injury report in the almost three separate weeks, but his ankles just you know, it's
not gonna be one hundred percent. There's no way which will limit them, and it's almost better than having Huntley's additional mobility.
But either way, at five and a half, that's the point.
If Lamar plays and the spread goes to I'm still fine laying five and a half even assuming that Lamar suits up, given that he there's no way he's going to be one hundred percent For a guy who relies on his legs so much.
All right, number two, pick? What do you got?
Okay, I'm gonna go with the Steelers. I think this number is ticking down. I had plus two that I wrote down, but anything above pick, I'm on Pittsburgh in this game.
This is a classic Mike Tomlin spine.
It's almost like we're beating a dead horse because you know, the Steers keep being plays as underdogs. But Tomlin, he's covering sixty six percent of his games as a dog as a Steelers head coach. Make that over eighty percent as a home underdog. And this Tennessee team, it's a team I like to back as Underdog's not his favorite. So this is kind of a spot where I like to fade Mike Rabel. He is fourteen nineteen to one as a favorite since taking over in Tennessee. So there
are some trends going in the Steelers favor. And also just this is more of an eye test thing. I've been fading the Steelers. I didn't believe in them earlier in the year. It almost seems like Ben Roethlisberger's having like this is the last stand. You know, he's trying to will the team home Gunslinger mentality really just he knows this as his last year. He's leaving it all out there. So I kind of like that motivation for
the Steelers. They had some extra time to prep and this Tennessee offense without Derrick Henry, who have they beaten of late? They lost to the Texans, they got blown out by the Patriots. They get to buy and beat a dead Jaguars team, So I'm not.
Impressed with the Titans.
They're twenty third in EPA per play since Derrick Henry went down. So again, this is not a team I'm looking to back as a favorite on the road against the Steelers, team that is facing their season right here. If they lose this game, that's probably it for them in the playoff race. So again, Roethlisberger's last stand, Tomlin as a dog, all these things are putting me towards the Steelers. Again, this is still in that one and a half two range, great teaser spot, but I like
the Steelers at anything above a pick. I think that they win this game.
So our consensus line at Betting Bros. Is one, but there are twos out there still at bet MGM, for example, there's two I'll give it to you two, because we've got some twos out there as well. Yeah, you're welcome, take the money a lot. It doesn't matter, whatever, it does matter. Yeah, So I think, first of all, I mean I'm full on the I back Mike Tomlin in the spot of you're an underdog, you know, get your
backs against the wall. When he's a favorite, run run as far away as you possibly can, because that's what does It's interesting here because I do think that this is a game that does favor the Steelers in a couple of ways. Number One, it's obviously like their defense has just been getting you know, whether it's been injury or not, like they've been getting torched. The Titans cannot do that at this point, right, That is not how
they are winning games at this point. They're playing very conservatively. But it's different when you're running back that you have is you know, Deonta Foreman instead of Derrick Henry. They're obviously down a j Brown Leo Jones just came back, but they were not pushing the ball down field. They have no interest in sort of having an explosive style game which can exploit.
Whatever the Steelers deficiencies are on offense.
And on defense, and hopefully they get a little healthier by the way, because they've obviously, you know, hopefully Watt's able to play Hayden and you're right about like whether it is just like hey man, Ben's out after this year.
Let's just go, you know, to the wall and do what we can.
They are really just basically saying, like, you know what, our offense seems to work better a little bit when we go no huddle, when we hurry it up, when we move it and just let Ben sort of find what it is, and it does like they are able to put up points here. And the Titans defense is good, but they have been sort of punching above their weight class a little bit in that it's been fluky. Like we mentioned when they beat the Rams, right, it was like, oh wow, you know they went and be the Red.
Like that was very fluky.
They had to pick six right, their defense sort of play. That's how they've been getting away with this. When you just look at how is our offense playing, how's their defense playing, it's not that impressive of late, right, So yeah, I don't hate it, like I have been on the wrong side like the Steelers against the Bengals in that game where they went in there and I was like, this is Mike toWin spot and they're gonna be pissed off every getting and they've just got the doors.
Blown off them. I've been gun chat a little bit with them. Go ahead.
Sorry, No, the Titans seem like a team. Again, I don't like backing them as favorites. I like back in those underdogs because they punch up and down to their weight class. And again, I'm not saying the Steelers are a good team. I don't think that they're doing anything come playoff time or if they even make the playoffs, but they can whire. The Titans should be laying points here, Like what have the Titans done? They had three point
eight yards per play against the Jags. I get that game was over the second started, but it's not like the Titans have been some world beating nine to fourteen. This is a different team than what started the year. So I'm not rushing to back this offense right now, going on the road to a hostile Hinz Field in a must win situation.
This is a clear spots back with Steelers.
I don't disagree with what you're saying.
I don't know if I'm gonna be on it because I'm terrified, but I agree especially and again another thing where they're getting too not a.
Bad teaser piece as well, if you can tease them up past that touchdown. All right.
So originally in the week I was gonna, I mean, it's all gross right now, I was gonna go with the Texans against the Jaguars because I feel like the quote sharp side and when you look at the teams like the Jaguars, I understood why they were at the time three point favorites. But I was not going to
back an Urban Meyer team. And I think that he sort of is the model buster in terms of terrible teams that fire their coach, like especially this, like you could definitely see a rally around the flag type of effort from the Jaguars. So I went with an equally ugly sort of dog that I've gone with, and it's the Jets. And now when I took the Jets, and when I logged it again in our betting pros app
they were getting ten. Right after that, right when I decided I was gonna do it, we got the Jaalen Waddell news that he is on the reserve COVID list now ready. I don't know if you've seen anything. I didn't see that he actually tested positive. I don't know if he was just a close contact. But either way, if you're put on the list on a Thursday, I it does not sound like you're gonna be able to play.
Like.
He hasn't been ruled out as far as I right, I didn't see he was ruled out, but.
You have to think probably out for this weekend. And listen, he's a huge part of their offense.
He oh my god, he's uh to a his binky.
You know, he is his go to receiver. Not downfield.
He average is like four yards of catch, but he's his go to guys. This really makes it a difficult passing attack for this Dolphins team. I wonder how they're going to adjust. Especially they're coming off of buy so they were prepping for this game. They're trying to get the playoff race. So yeah, no, continue with your handicap.
I mean, so no, it's fine. So I headed at ten. It's now the consensus line is nine and a half. I'm just gonna stick with it because it doesn't really matter. Also, I think there are a couple things. They've obviously got COVID issues on that team. Every running back right now it tested positive for COVID. They may be off. I'm actually expecting Miles Gaskin to come off, maybe Savan Akhmed, you know, who knows. They maybe they'll get Malcolm brown back,
who knows. But they've got a COVID ish on that team, which, by the way, suggests this is a game which I might be fine to take now because I do think look of Wattle tested positive, If DeVante Parker test positive, if Mike a SICKI test, like, you've got issues there going on with that team. And either way, I mean, look, a receiver being out generally, it's not something that's going to move this spread very much, right, Like that's the thing.
It's half a point, and I assume that's why. But regardless, Wattle certainly is the biggest part of that offense where it is. And the Dolphins, man, I don't know, man, I'm interested your thoughts on them generally because when I look at them, I knew they were better than this team to start out one and so like they weren't one of the worst teams in the NFL, and they're rolling right now. But other than that, Ravens Win, Panthers, Texans, Jets, Giants.
It's not like they're world beaters or anything like that. The Jets are terrible, and they're terrible this year against the spread, right, they're three and ten, like so, the Jets are not a team that you want to back. And I made fun of Pat last week, who took them against the Saints. I was like, there's no way I'm taking a bet. But regardless, and they've gotten Elijah More but they are going to get Michael Carter back, which I do think is you know, something that's at
least gonna make a difference because he's incredibly talented. He's a big part of their offense going in. We don't know again, what this Dolphins offense gonna look like. Who's gonna be playing running back, if Wild's out, if they have more COVID cases. And when it was eight and a half, I leaned the Jets when I saw that, because again, these two teams have played before. The Dolphins won by seven points. They do not strike me as a team who should be double digit favorites over anyone
in the NFL. Now, again, this is nine and a half. So whatever, But basically, this just doesn't seem like that the Jets are a terrible football team, but they don't like they don't mail it in right like Sala has them playing still hard, they just don't have the personnel and they randomly put up like spirited efforts here to
put up a game. I think this is the type of game that even if the Dolphins sort of jump out to a lead and get there, they don't have the type of offense I think that's gonna be able to put away apps in the defensive score.
I could see the Jets having a backdoor cover here.
So it's a second divisional game, right Like those games are always just a little tighter than you think they should be in this one. So it's disgusting, and I hate backing the Jets, and I'm a Jets fan as most people listen, No unfortunately, I was raised in Queens, no choice.
But I don't. I'm not like a backer of them. I never back them, but.
This week, with it being ugly and especially at ten, if it gets back to ten, great, but even in nine and a half, given the COVID issues that the Dolphins are dealing with, read I'm inclined to agree with them.
How do you see this Dolphins team? Generally? Like, is this for real?
They're six and seven, They're on the precipice of the playoff race, that got a schedule they can exploit.
Now I agree with you on hundred. I think the Dolphins are incredibly overrated. I faded them unfortunately with my Giants two weeks ago before the buye they were not able to cover. Just this isn't a Dolphins team that is beating Again, obviously we agree. I think we all know the Jets are not a talented team. But again, are the Dolphins a team you're rushing to back laying ten points?
I know? And again, the Jets aren't the type of team that take.
Me as a quick factor team such as I know urban Meyer was just fired, but urban Meyer Jags.
That's like a quick team as a team that's gonna come out and just lay an egg.
The Jets have a first year head coach is starting to build a program. They have a rookie quarterback that's going to at least give an honest effort. So this isn't a Dolphins team that's gonna typically pull away. They haven't really beat up on lesser competition. I think that the spread is too high. I think that the Jets, like you said, division second time around, I think that the Jets get up of this game. And also it's in Miami. Dolphins don't have much of a home field.
This is not a maybe Miami nightlife beats the Jets. But it's not like the Jets are going into a hostile Miami like we're about to make a playoff push crowd. This is gonna be probably more Jets fans that you know, all the New Yorkers going down to Florida for you know, the winter.
Yea, there's probably be more Jet fans than Dolphins fans.
So yeah, at eight and a half, I was thinking maybe tease Miami inside of three.
But now, all right, this is a no touch for me. This line has gone way too high in my opinion.
I know the Jets are banged up, but again nine and a half ten, I lean forwards New York staying within this big number.
If they get If it goes back to ten, I I'd like it.
And again that's that's how I I originally said, all right, I'll take this when it got even at nine and a half though I still think, Man, I still think it's there, and I bet it now because you know this is again one like be very careful about betting early and.
So especially especially right now, especially right now.
That's what I'm saying, well right generally speaking, like, I don't have a problem if you want to make a bet on Thursday, but for right now, goodness gracious, but I do think if there is a game that you feel comfortable with that you want to bet now, this probably is one.
Because we know the.
Dolphins have a COVID issue going on right now, because we've known it forever. So I think the likelihood of COVID affecting that team is higher than it is any other team almost except for the Browns right in the Rams and stuff like that. So I'd be okay if you're on the Jets side right now, because I do think if anything, this is just going to hurt.
Probably the Dolphins. Coke from all right, read third bet? What do you got?
Yeah?
I'm going with another underdog Bengals. This I got two and a half.
Is that still work?
It is two and a half?
Two and a half another game that I can't really understand what this line is, So last week in the look ahead market.
And again this isn't like the end all be all.
It's sometimes a little arbitrary, but the look ahead market for this game was Bengals minus three, so that's now they're getting nearly three.
So we're getting a full on switch.
Let's just what happened in that time spam. They were Joe Burrow finger issues. He ended up slinging all over the Broncos. He threw for over three hundred yard, slinging all over the forty nine ers over three hundred yards almost one in overtime. The Broncos be a lion team that almost couldn't feel the full roster because.
Of flu issues, and that was an easy win. They were double died your favorites.
So why is this line flipping from Bengals minus three to Broncos minus two and a half? I just I can't get there with this number. I make the Bengals one point favorites here. So I actually played the Bengals on the money line earlier in the week and the number keeps going against me, which maybe I'm missing something, but here are just a few numbers that make me stick by my Bengals piece Bengals are number two in
defensive rushing success rate this year. This is a Broncos offense that's gonna lean on the likes of Javonte Williams to kind of establish the run to set up Teddy Bridgewater two pass the Broncos in that stat they're thirtieth.
So if Joe Mixon is able to.
You know, I know that he's kind of been on the injury report, but if he's healthy enough to play, he's gonna find success against this Broncos defense that is going to get the likes of Jamar Chase open downfield, t Higgins get Burrow going. So again, the Bengals have a higher rated defense and pretty much all metrics. The Broncos have a really concerning special teams metric and they have a Denver boost with that they're outside the top twenty five and special team special teams DVOA. So there's
a lot of metrics going towards Cincinnati. For me, maybe I'm dead wrong, Dan, maybe you can help me out here, but I bet the Bengals again another teaser piece. I love give me the better quarterback with Joe Burrow. I just think that this is a complete overreaction. I'm in complete agreement with you.
And what's great about this read is that I have faded the Bengals all year because I think that they have been an overrated team.
And you know, you just look at DVA It's almost so.
Even last week. That was one of the reasons why I looked at it. I was like, look, the forty nine ers are like ninth in DVOA. You know that the Bengals are always like, Oh, the Bengals are a good team, and they're like eighteenth or nineteenth or wherever they are. I think they have been overrated. And I was specifically worried about Joe Burrow's finger. He looked fantastic, Yeah, zero, zero issues from it, zero, which I was so impressed.
I've been so impressed with Burrow the whole year. I expected him to struggle early in the year as he mentally sort of got.
Over the hurdle of the injury.
He's been fantastic, basically the most impressed player like with him this year. But I completely agree with you, and I said about this on Monday. We do like an early look aheadline show where we're like, oh, what's your instant reaction to this and again, I'm a guy who basically has faded the Bengals, and even I think at that point it might have been a pick em. Maybe they were plus one or something. I was like, oh God, give me them his dough like any day of the
week here. They are a much better team than the Broncos in my opinion at this point, coming in like regardless of anything, the fact that they're getting almost a field goal, I love it as a teaser pieces we I'll like get it to eight and a half, because you saw last week, right they were on the verge.
It looked like the forty nine ers were gonna run.
With that because of flukey players by the way, like punt funnels and stuff like that.
They just came right back. You know, they are able to if they have to.
They can move the ball because of their three wide receivers, because of Burrow, because of mixing, they can move the ball. I think they win this game, out right, I really do. I think they go into Denver. I don't get the money. I mean when a line moves like this read out of curiosity, like do you think that's because there are a ton of like quote big you know, sharp betters coming in and betting the Broncos.
Is that why it's moving like this?
Yeah, I feel like every situation is kind of its own thing. And look, maybe there's an underlying COVID issue coming like at this point, like you know, I'm almost like scared of my own shadow when it comes to like you know, it hasn't hit a key number of three yet, so if it hits three, that's when I'm like, Okay, maybe I'm missing something. But like to me, two and a half, one and a half, maybe it's just money coming in on the Broncos. Maybe it's a bigger better
really signing with the Broncos. But to me, I make my own numbers. I trust my instincts here. I've watched this game and again, if we're looking at last week, for example, the Bengals closed this home underdogs there and limited the Niners to twenty points in regulation. I know they let up a touchdown overtime, but I'm gonna call it twenty points.
They live.
They shut down that Niners offense in the second half. They got back in that game because their defense could play. And Trey Hendrickson he's on track to play this weekend. I just I can't get to this number with the Broncos based off of them blowing out the Lions. I know they beat the Charges of the week before, two weeks before that, but we saw them play a tougher defense in the Chiefs and the Bengals defense is really
good this year. They are one of the most underrated units in the league, and that's what I think actually gives them the edge in this game. I think that their defense is gonna hold off enough to get Burrow his opportunities to take takeover.
So yeah, listen, I'm all over the Bengals in this one.
I'm with you, and I will say, there are threes out there, man at points Bet at Fox Bet it's three right.
Maybe I'm missing something and maybe I'm just dead wrong, but again, give me Joe Burrow over Cheddy Bridgewater.
If that's what it really comes down to, you may be dead. But I assume with everybody.
But I will say this like I don't have a problem saying and I hope you don't either. When I disagree with the bet like I have disagree I mean Pat and I were on opposite sides. That was like I don't usually do that. I don't usually say, okay, well, I'm actually going to take the opposite side.
And we were.
Joking because of the fact that, like that game wound up going into overtime, so of course neither one of us could really hang our hat.
But I am with you on this bet.
Like this is not one where I'm like, yeah, I could see that, or I'm not gonna bet it. Like I like it, especially like it as a teaser piece, but I don't understand it either. Didn't understand it on Monday, don't right now. And that is coming from maybe the world's foremost Bengals fader. So I really do like it. I'm going to go for my last one to a
total finding spreads this week. We're really tough. This one's going to be and again, this one, I hope absolutly a huge defensive sort of you know, COVID thing is not really going to be affected by COVID, and it is the Bills and the Panthers under Actually I'm going to double check to make sure I have they're right. It's forty four and a half last time I checked it. I'm just gonna double check it right now. It's still forty four and a half.
Very good. Okay, So I don't know.
Man to me, this strikes with his game where the Bills are number one still in defensive DVOA. Like just overall, Carolina's offense is horrific, right Like, I don't know is are they gonna.
Split again Cam Newton and PJ.
Walker?
And I know Sam Darnold was designated to return from injury reserve. I don't expect him to play, but even if he does, I don't really care. That offense is terrible without Christian McCaffrey. DJ Moore is a hamstring issue. He's gonna play, but again that's a little scary. They've got no running game whatsoever right now going on. And for the Bills, I mean their they obviously need to win this game. Their offense is not in sync right now.
Everything that's going on is just bad. Josh Allen has this foot sprain and he's gonna play, of course.
And he's amazing.
But I do think that this is the type of game where you can basically put like the Panthers will put Gilmore Han Stefan Diggs and they'll give him some help over the top. And I think, I think this is just a game with the Patriots up next week, which is a game the Bills are going to have to win to have any sort of semblance right of possibly taking the division, depending on what happens here on Saturday night, of course, but they're gonna have to win.
They're gonna want to play this. They know they can beat the Panthers. They're gonna want to play conservatively. I think you're gonna Seean McDermott say, like, we've got to get some sort of semblance of a run game going because our passing game right now is not working. To try to get Devin Singletary, who again every team abandons like doesn't even try to run the ball against the box. Like, I get it, but they haven't had a run game all year. They need something, like they need to sort
of have some sort of balance. I think they try to get it here, and I think that that's really what we're going to get. So I think this is a game again where the Bills kind of play it tight and conservative, no faith whatsoever in the Panthers' ability to put up points.
I was burned on the Panthers under last week.
I get it because I had the falcon, But I do think that the Bills are not going to go explosive here and try that. I think they're going to get back to conservative game plan, keep everyone healthy, understand that they can win this game without doing too much
rely on their defense. And I'll take the under here forty four and a half, which, by the way, it's like one of the higher totals of the week in what is just a ridiculously low total here, So aileen under, which always gets me a little nervous, even though I like unders because, as our friend Chris Raybaund says, it's like you're winning the game as soon as it starts like automatically, and I know people hate it. So I'll go under there and the Bills.
And the Panthers.
Yeah, no, I'm totally with you.
This was actually a game I was like, I have like circle, I have like my little post it that I like write down the bets I'm really looking to make, like you know, certain numbers and stuff. This is a bet that circled right there I was looking at especially this morning.
I'm probably gonna ride this with you.
I mean, it's supposed to be freezing in Buffalo and right we're talking, we're talking quick teams.
You know where we were talking about. Yeah, last segment.
The Panthers are a quick team. They fire their offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The Cam Newton on back luster has already came off. So I'm totally with you here. And like you said, they play the Pats next week, maybe you know, pull the plug a little early. Really go ground and pound, try and just get out of this with a win. You know, something like twenty eight to three really sounds like like this sounds like a buffalo suffocating.
Just workman like, win and move on. So I'm totally with you here with this total.
That's exactly right. That's how I see it. Like they know they're gonna win this game, they have to win this game. They also almost can use this to like work on some stuff and be like, all right, let's not take any chances or go crazy.
Let's just get here. So let's recap very quickly, and.
Then I will also go through the remaining spreads and we'll just give our very quick takes on it. You are taking the Steelers, let's call it plus two, the Bengals plus two and a half, and the Patriots plus two and a half. Here against the Colts, I'm going to take the Pack laying five and a half against the Ravens the Jets. I'll call it nine and a half right now, even though if it gets to ten, wait on it, I'll get honorable man. Yes, this will give me a reason to continue to watch my poor
football team getting nine and a half. I'll call it from the Dolphins and the Bills in the Panther's under forty four and a half.
So read, if you're.
Cool, let's just run through the remaining spreads and see where we're at. If you have any lean Saturday night. I mean, I don't know what you do with the Raiders at this point, because forget about tonight.
Oh you do, guy? Right now, the spread is the Raiders laying one. What are you doing doing?
Yeah, I'm gonna bet the Browns.
I'm gonna wait a little bit, but I'm gonna be on the Browns in some capacity. I mean, I doubt it gets me again, this is like kind of a COVID steam thought. There's no point in betting right now on the Browns because it's only There's probably gonna be more positives throughout the week. So what's the rush, Especially it's sitting on wonderright now if I have to bet
the Browns minus one. Sure, but this just seems like an overreaction and Raiders possible quick team Browns playing for their lives, and everyone talks about.
How bad Baker Mayfield is.
I get all the weapons are gone, he's playing with basically a practice squad. But if case Keenum is really not that big of a downgrade from Baker Mayfield, then this line is a complete overreaction. So I'll be on the Browns in some sort of capacity. Probably just can't take the money long. Yeah, I mean it is one and a half. You know at my book, you know DraftKings, and you're in Jersey, are you? I'm in New York, but I I'm from Jersey, so I'm typically going back and forth.
Got it?
So you should have Fandel at least, right, and oh you do have probably yeah whatever you probably.
I go all over the place. Oh I shove.
It a yeah, all right, Well I'm from New York too. We'll talk later.
But yeah, So it's one and a half at FanDuel and it's one off at DraftKings, so I might have a fun, just to have some Saturday fun. I might do a teaser where I get the Browns up to seven and a half and the Pats up to eight and a half and then just hopefully have a relaxed night. We already talked about the Pats and the Colt, so we know where you are there. The Texans and the Jacks are now at five, like it's all over the place. Actually it's three and a half for me. The Texans
getting three and a half from Jaguars at DraftKings. It is four at bet MGM, it is five at Fandle. So this is all over the place. I guess with the Meyer unless I miss something from this morning, I guess is what the Urban Meyer news. So let's call it five at this point, what do you think about the Jags laying five to the Texans?
So I kind of lean Jacksonville before this news at three, I was leaning there. I probably wasn't gonna bet it just because I want to know part of the team. I just thought they were dead. Now this like dead cat bounce from Jacksonville. I actually made the Jags four and a half point favorites, just like just my number, pure number, Urban Meyer.
You can only downgrade them so much.
So like I think the Texans are really really bad, So I lean Jacksonville.
This morning, I woke up and saw the Urban Myer News.
I put them in a moneyline parlay with the Niners at minus one fourteen, so like basically around even odd just to get the Jacks in there. Because I like Jacksonville. I really think you're gonna see a spirited effort from them. So I lean Jacksonville.
It's a big number, but I still I think the Texans are that bad. I mean, it's really tough for me again because with Meyer there there is no spread and there is nothing that would make me back to Jacks, just because I would not feel comfortable regardless of what the numbers say. I think there are certain coaches and are certain teams where they kind of bust your models because they're bad. Now, yeah, I don't know, man. I lean towards the Jaguars, but I'm staying away from it
for me. How about the Eagles now?
Again, dude, when I looked at it four and a half on Monday, liked it.
There bet it, you know. And again I didn't anticipate all of this sort of stuff. And now it's seven. Obviously Washington has a mess. I think they put twenty one players as of this morning on the COVID list. Yeah, Heineg's not on it, by the way, but he is battling the knee injury. We don't know if Terry mclaurin's even gonna be able to play here with a concussion.
But it's seven. What do you think?
Uh?
This was another one. I tease the Eagles. This is yesterday again, I bet pretty early in the week. I tried to at least, so some of these things are already in. But I tease the Eagles with the Bengals actually last night. I mean, look, seven and a half. It's tough to lay in a division game this number. But what like, just don't bet this game, Yeah, because you don't know who's gonna be out, who's gonna play. I mean, last week we saw the football team's defensive
line just get absolutely gashed on the ground. The offensive line is banged up. I just what are this football team?
You're gonna get a bare bones roster Eagles off a bye.
Hurts even has a sprained ankles, so we don't really know what that's gonna be like, Eagles in the playoff race.
This just seems like a whole mess of a game.
Right now that you know there are other games to bet on, I would stay away from this one, but again I tease the Eagles down.
Get that basically as a money line.
How about the Cowboys laying ten and a half to your Giants? Apparently?
Yes, I'm a Giants fan. I don't have much to say about this one.
But the Giants are quickly just becoming a just a dumpster fire?
Again? Is this a quick team?
Mike Lennon out there. I don't think Daniel Jones is gonna play again. I don't think he's been ruled out, but it seems like his season's probably over. Cowboys, But what kind of eff you're gonna get out of the Cowboys? This division's pretty much over? Do they go on cruise control? Eileen Dallas?
No real play here?
You know, if you have any thoughts, you know you might have more of a Yeah, this just seems like a complete stay.
Away, complete stay away for me as well. Yeah, now, not something I want to go anywhere near. I'm glad you feel the same. What about the Cardinals here that obviously just lost Andre Hopkins, don't know about James Connor. They're still laying thirteen points on the road in Detroit. Right, Yeah, I'm gonna bet Detroit. It's pretty gross.
But I guess they should be getting guys back off their flu list, not COVID list, that flu list. But if you look at Arizona, first of all, I think they really dropped the ball on Monday night. That was pretty you know, I love the Cardinals last year and they burned me, and then this year I started feeding them because I didn't think they were as elite as their record and they were burning me.
So I just can't seem to get them right.
But that was a real opportunity to announce yourself as an NFC contender because no one's really talking about you, and I thought it was a pretty concerning performance against Listen, the Rams are good, but so you're at home, you have an opportunity to close this division, really establish yourself as the one seed. And Kyle, so maybe a letdown here on a short week, and they also finished with a difficult schedule. I believe it's Dallas and then Seattle or Dallas and another division opponent.
So is this a looking at spot?
Are they really gonna get pumped up to go to Detroit and play the lowly Lions. And Arizona's one bad spot on their defense is their rush to I believe they're twenty ninth in defensive rush success rate. So lines, they like to get that ball out of Jared Goff's hands. Just run the ball. So give me the lines at this huge number. I'm probably gonna wait and see if this goes back to fourteen. I doubt it gets there. I'd play this down to I'll say twelve.
And a half. Yeah they do. They get Indy and then Dallas and then Seattle to close out the season here four hours. So yeah, no, I agree, I I like, I think the number is too high, but I agree. I'd wait on it. Hopefully it gets up, but yeah, it's too high for me. We talked about the total, but what about the spread here in the Bills laying ten and a half at home against Patanthers.
I like the Bills. I like we said.
I think that this just sets up for a workman like, just like kind of blowout. Like we've seen the Bills beat up on bad teams too. You know, they cover these big spreads when they're a better team. They really make sure everyone knows they're the better team, So I lean Bills, even if it's mister Bitsky if he gets time. I don't know what they're gonna do with Josh Allen. I still like the Bills at pretty much any number.
Yeah, I mean I don't I if I have to go one way, I'll go with the Bills for sure, because I can't see the Panthers sticking in this game.
Falcons getting nine and a half in San Francisco.
You mentioned already sort of doing the money line parlay there right with San Francisco.
So what do you think about this with the spread through?
I lean San Francisco even at this big number. I think, I really think Atlanta's bad, and I just and it seems like Atlanta they again, it's they beat up on their inferior opponents and then they lose to you know, the better closer to elite performance are elite perform elite teams. I don't know if San Francisco is there yet, but this feels like a game where San Francisco continues to get a little momentum here down the stretch. Everyone's talking
about them as like kind of that trendy. No one wants to see us team.
I don't know if I'm.
There yet, just because Jimmy Garoppolo, But yeah, it feels like this is a real spot where San Francisco kind of beats up on an inferior opponent like Atlanta. So again I took the money line. Anything under ten. I think this is still pretty good. I don't hate the over either. I could see San Francisco really putting up some big points on Atlanta.
All Right, the total, let me just pull it up so I can get it. Whatever it is.
The consensus total is forty six, so all right, it's over there.
Okay, very good.
How about the Rams hosting the Seahawks. It's now down to four and a half. It opened it. I looked at it on Monday with seven. So obviously the COVID issues sort of, you know, I'm sure at least affecting that.
So what do you think here at four and a half.
I kind of like Seattle.
I think that maybe Russ is starting to round it to form one last playoff push short week for LA. Of course, the COVID issues, you don't really know who's gonna shoot off. I'm I'm probably not gonna end up betting this game, just because of all the uncertainty around it. But I do lean with Seattle catching four and a half and again getting Russ as a dog is kind of a almost an auto bet situation.
You know, do you have a play?
I mean, I again, I'm kind of steering clear of this one, just because of all the uncertainty.
Yeah, I like them early in the week, and I bet it briefly at seven because it was Yeah, it was six and a half where I was in got the seven I went there. Now it's four and a half. I still I'm with you, though, I lean to them at four and a half because Russ to me looked appreciably different when I in this most recent game, I think, than what he had looked like. Other than that, since he came back like he looks strong. The Rams are, you know, good effort here, but they're obviously beat up.
They'll probably be without Beckham. Who knows what other COVID issues they're gonna be dealing with. So I do like getting the Seahawks here at four and a half. How about the Saints visiting the box on Sunday night?
Eleven? Is the spread here?
Yeah, I lean towards the Saints.
I don't have a play on it just yet. It just Sean Payton's great as a dog. He's great in division. I don't have the numbers up in front of me. I'm pretty sure he's nineteen and ten straight up against the Bucks. Not that they're gonna win this game, but we saw earlier this year the Saints defense that is getting healthier gave Tom Brady a ton of issues. I think Tampa Bay is rolling though. I really think that
they are the best team in the NFL. I don't think there's much debate there, and Tom Brady is gonna probably win. End up warning MVP, but this is a big number, primetime game. I think the Saints are gonna hang around in this one, and.
I lean Saints.
I don't know if I'm gonna play yet though, And I tweet out all my plays. I have a bet stamp on my time to my profile, so when I say I lean away, you could find these plays when I tweet them in real time very good.
I like that.
I'm in agreement with you by the way that I leaned towards the Saints. They just always you know, they're gonna play them tough. They played them obviously, they won the last game that they played, So this just strikes me as a game that's gonna be single.
Digits, however it ends up with the Bucks. But yeah, it's.
Also one that I'm not running to bet. I'm taking my time on it, and I'm gonna see last one Monday Night football. The Bears are getting three and a half at home against the Vikings. I did just come across that. I guess Bill.
Laser was placed in COVID protocol.
Don't know whether or not Laser is gonna be there, not sure that matters to whatsoever, but three and a half here getting it at home.
Yeah, I think I've retired from betting Vikings games this year, just for like my heart. Like, you know, it's college I bet a lot of college basketball. That's enough heartache for me. Vikings might be a little too much for me.
Road favorite. I mean, they need the game, do the Bears care?
I feel like maybe last Sunday Night was kind of a last ditch, like let's really go for it. This could easy be a game where they roll over. I guess I lean Minnesota. Though, if I had to play the side, like in a pick the pool, I'll probably be on Minnesota because I made them bigger favorites. Maybe the over just because it seems like the Bears offense with fields kind of got a shot of life, maybe some speed. Maybe they kind of just like throw the book out and just say that, like, let's just go
for it. Let's like start going for all fourth down, maybe get a little crazy Vikings offense. We know, and listen, this game will probably go down to the wire because it's a Vikings game.
So I lean Vikings, I lean over.
I'm probably gonna stay away from it though, Yeah, unless I'm just desperate to have a little something.
Yeah, on Monday night, I'm running away. I'm running away from it. I I just like, there's no way the Vikings.
I mean, if that game against the Steelers didn't just tell you can't bet on the Vikings no matter what, nothing, because they just they have no killer instinct, nobility to put away games. So that's where I Matt read. I'm so glad to finally have you on the podcast. I really appreciate it. Just remind everybody where they can check you out and your work. Yeah, check us out over at betsided. That'sfanside dot com. Backslash betsided.
Make sure check out our podcast Bed and Breakfast, which is live on Mondays and Thursday mornings, and you can follow me on Twitter at read Wallach.
All Right, we'll be back on Monday breaking down the early look at the week sixteen NFL lines. Goodness, gracious, enjoy your betting, everybody for this weekend