Hello everyone, I'm Matthew Friedman matt fd Oracle. Welcome to the Betting FROs Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM, where you can get a risk free bet about two thousand dollars when you use the highly original promo code betting Pros with your first deposit. Right here with me to talk NFL Week fourteen best Bets is Jessica grid Iron of The Action Network. Jessica, we're we're like in
the home stretch of the season. Next week we have three games on Saturday, and when we start to get Saturday games, that's officially when my brain sees the end of the season insight, Like, how has the season gone for you so far?
The I know it's it's exciting and said at the same time, I agree with you, but so far the season has gone pretty well.
I've had definitely had some.
Good weeks and then I've had some soso you know weeks as well, But overall, I'm happy with the season so far, and it's been fun and exciting overall.
Yeah, last week one of the best NFL weeks I've ever had. So I'm just waiting, like I know, regression is going to strike, like the Empire. Just I know, some some point I'm gonna have a really bad week, just hoping it's not this week. But all right, this morning I published on Betting Pros my projected spreads for every games and per usual established betting positions earlier in the week. Still some games that I like, though, and Jessica has some bets that she likes as well, so
we're going to we're gonna cover those. I'm gonna start with the Bills hosting the Jets minus nine and a half point favorites. And by the way, God do the plug here, we're giving away a free signed Isaiah McKenzie Buffalo Bills many helmets from Pristine Auction. If you want a chance to win it, subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now and comment below on the video. We will announce a winner in a future episode, So
turn on those notifications, all right. I think my rationale for this bet of Bills nine minus nine and a half, it's it's pretty straightforward. You know. I think they're just significantly better. That's that's the thesis there. But you know, I think anything less than ten is not enough. When the Jets hosted the Bills in Week nine, the Bills were minus ten and a half, and yeah, they did use that game, and the Jets are better with Mike White a quarterback versus Zach Wilson. But the Bills are
now at home at high Mark Stadium. I think they have a significant home field advantage, and they're only nine and a half point favorites, and that doesn't add up, especially when you take into account that the Bills are playing with three extra days of rest and the Jets are on a three to four away streak, so you know they they are living on the road at this point. And the difference between these two teams, like it is,
it is significant. In the massive Peabody Power rankings, the Bills are seven point nine to one points better than an average team on a neutral field, the Jets minus two point h nine points. So there's, you know, like I would just say, in general, like a nine or ten point difference between these two teams. And then you add on home field advantage and the extra rest that the Bills have, and I think that pushes this pretty
cleanly over nine and a half for me. And I know that we've seen back to back three hundred yard passing games out of Mike White. He's un quitem b lean upgrade on Zach Wilson, but I think it's too early for us to assume that he's actually like a quote unquote good quarterback, like he probably isn't. Just last year in Week nine, he had an abysmal game against the Bills. Had a fifty four point six percent completion rate,
one point six of justice yards per attempt. Like that is like sub Blake Bortles, like Bortals, that's like Nathan Peterman esque for interceptions he threw in that game. He's almost certainly better than the typical third string quarterback, but like that's what he is. He's a third string quarterback, like he's yet to prove himself to be a starter caliber player. So I think anything less than ten offers value on the Bills. I don't know if you have
any opinion on this game? Do you do? You have a position or any thoughts?
Yeah, well, as you know, as you can tell, I'm a Dolphins fan, you know if you look kind me so overall, I dis like both of these teams a ton, I'll just put that out there, but I always tend to lean towards the dogs, and I agree with you. You know, the Bills are one of the top three teams in the league, but I can't take favorites in the divisional game. I also, you know the Deat's defense, it's significantly improved this year, and I think they can
get a couple stops on defense and an offense. As you mentioned, Mike White is almost one of the games outright last week. You know, he won the game outright last week against the Vikings. So if he can limit his turnovers and improve his third down conversion rate, he could be a serviceable quarterback.
In my opinion, they almost won the game.
Yeah, so you're skeptical of my position here. Yep, Yeah, that's fair. It feels dirty, like I hate. It's so weird because like it feels dirty, like the want to be sharp in my brain feels dirty taking a big favorite, and then the like definite square in my brain feels dirty when I take a big underdog. So there's always this battle that I have within myself about what to do when I'm betting here. But yeah, I mean, I have this projected at let me see where do I
have this projected? I have this projected at eleven point twenty five, So I am well on the other side of ten here, but maybe I'm wrong. You mentioned that you are a Dolphins fan, but you are going against your Dolphins this week. You like the Chargers hosting the Dolphins, and right now this number is, you know, kind of vacillating between three three and a half in the market. What do you see in this game that is putting you on the Chargers.
Yeah, so I like the Chargers plus three and a half because everyone is going to expect a major bounce back from the Dolphins this week, but I'm expecting a two week road hiatus to affect the Dolphins' ability to get into a routine. That being said, you're going to give me a three and a half line where I'll gladly take the home dogs to stay within a field goal. And you know, everyone knows about Miami's offense, so nothing needs to be said about that.
But it's their defense. It's middle of the.
Road, and Justin Herbert should be able to pick apart the middle of the field. Similarly how rookie nine Ers quarterback Brock Purty did last week. You have a quarterback in Herbert who has more experience and of course a bigger arm. To make the Dolphins defense pay. One big factor that has overlooked on this Miami team is a special teams unit, where they are the worst in the NFL.
You have.
The eighth worst kickoff.
Return success tenth worst punt return success in the NFL, and then you add in the fact that kicker Jason Sanders comes in as the seventh worst in the league as field goals and extra points. I mean, I think the Dolphins will be leaving points on the board and they'll lose the field position battle all game, which will keep the Chargers closer than people expect. Also, the Dolphins have the sixth worth net average in the league per
punt at thirty nine point eight. So I really wouldn't rely much on this on special teams in a normal scenario while handicapping, but with the Dolphins team that will be out of their normal routine, I'm expecting this to come into play.
Yeah, it's interesting, Okay, So I will say if I had to bet on this game, I would be on the Chargers, and my numbers do show value on the Chargers. One thing that gives me a little bit of pause, So I guess two things. One is that Miami they are cross country, you know, traveling east to west, but they did stay out on the West coast because they played the forty nine Ers, and so I think the normal road disadvantage that we would expect to see from a traveling team maybe we don't see that quite as
much with the Dolphins. But the bigger thing is the injury situation for the Chargers with right tackle Trey Pipkins, center Corey Lensley, and wide receiver Mike Williams. If I knew those three guys were going to play well, of course, if the market knew those three guys were playing this number one, it'd be three and a half, right, But like, those are really important positions for the team, you know, like Mike Williams as the bigger body, downfilled option in
that offense. Lind's as you know, the anchor within that offensive line. I think he's one of the better centers in the league and really important to what they're doing on offense. And then right tackle Trey Pipkins, who it's not so much that he's great, but he's way better than Storm Norton, and so it's just you kind of put it all together, and if those three guys are there.
I really do like the Chargers, and I would be interested in them on the money line, Like because my number is showing value, this number is three, I haven't projected at one point twenty five. Uh, And that's like kind of assuming that those three guys are likelier than not to be out. But I just gotta say, I sort of know there's like snowballing catastrophe potential if those three guys are out. So I'm with you in that, Like this is the side I would bet, but I
just I haven't been able to do it yet. I just kind of want to see a little more on the injury reports. It's some sort of sense about whether those guys might be in or out. Do you have any thoughts on the injury situation for the charge?
Yeah, I mean I was also just gonna mention too, like I agree with you, you know, with the Dolphins stay in California, but we are fond of of routines and they won't have their usual routine and I just don't think iowa sorry, I do think that Herbert will be running for.
His life, but I still feel like he's going to find some open looks.
I have a minus one point seven for the Finns also, so according to my projections.
Yeah, so we're pretty close. We're pretty close there.
Yeah, and I and I also think having offensive line worries for the Chargers is legitimate. But we'll have to make plays like we like we've seen him do.
Yeah. All right, So a game that you and I are both on and this this one is really disgusting and is like testing my my fortitude and willingness to bet on games and also just to watch an NFL game. But the Broncos hosting the Chiefs. This number is nine in and a half And by the way, you know nine and a half across the market, but nine and a half at bet MGM. Weare reminder you can use the risk free bet of a thousand dollars when you use a highly original probo co betting pros with your
first deposit. Okay, uh, the the Broncos at nine and a half. This this really is an interesting situation because you know, Russell Wilson has been horrible, you know, I mean, I can't I can't describe the the difference, like the delta between what we would have expected when the year started and all the enthusiasm and if you look at any of the the look ahead markets for the off season and where these lines were projected months in advance. I mean they are, they are so off it's just incredible.
But you know, I have to I still look at this game and I think, like, where is the on field edge for the Chiefs? Like betting on the Broncos is disgusting, there's no denying it, But like, I'm backing a big divisional doll at home where the elevation provides a true edge for the Broncos. And I like that
general scenario. And you know, as cringey as Russell Wilson has been this season on and off the field with those ridiculous commercials, he's still four and two against the spread as an underdog, historically very good against the spread for his career as an underdog. And the Chiefs, I just don't see them having an on field edge, Like really,
obviously they're the better team. But I'm probably higher on the Chiefs than most people are, and I still have them as the number one team in my power ratings. I tend to be too high on them each week, but I still see value on the Broncos here, And like that's saying something so on offense the Chiefs, right, great team number one and drop back EPA number two and drop back success rate number two and past dvoa.
The thing is they're going against one of the best secondaries in the league, right, the Broncos number three in drop back EPA, number one in drop back success rate. Like this is not like an easy passing matchup for the offense for the Chiefs, and the Chiefs aren't really all that good running the ball. The Broncos about average and run defense actually number eleven in rush success rate, you know, so like it's not as if the offense for the Chiefs, which drives the team, has a really
great matchup in front of them. And then the Broncos defense, Yeah, it's not likely to shut down the Chiefs offense, but like slow down Patrick Mahomes, and you know, with a spread of nine and a half in a total of just forty four points, slowing down Mahomes might be enough to get the cover and the Broncos offense obviously massive disadvantage relative to the offense of the Chiefs, but not
a massive disadvantage relative to the Chiefs defense. Drop back EPA of twenty four for the offense for the Broncos twenty five for the Chiefs defense. Like, these two teams are kind of even in terms of like the offensive versus defensive matchups that we see. So I think the Broncos they're gonna be challenging the running game, but they're not good there. But what does that matter? Like the running game doesn't matter when you're a double digit dog,
you're going to be throwing the ball anyway. And the Chiefs have a blow average pass defense. So I doubt that the Broncos win. But the Chiefs throughout the years have displayed a propensity for winning outright but not covering the large spreads, and I think we see that happen here. So I think anything more than seven is too much for the Broncos at home. And I'll just close out this dietribe here. Russell wilson career stats might not matter because like there's there's a case to be made, real
case to be made. He is no longer Russell Wilson, but Russell Wilson five to zero against the spread as an underdog of more than seven points for his career. Patrick Mahomes eleven sixteen and one against the spread as a favorite of more than seven points. So it's it's one of those like, I'm not gonna be watching this game at all. I'm not gonna be looking at it on my phone tracking it because looking at it will
probably give me a heart attack. But I'm going to be betting it and then just at the end of Sunday, I'm going to be looking to see what happened here. Do you have opinions? We're on the same side of this. We're i mean, tell me why it is that you are sick oh enough to be betting on this game.
Now, I agree with you.
Probably the only time I'll be watching this game is if it pops up on the you know, red zone. But here we are with the divisional dog again, divisional dog again. But I'll keep this short and sweet because you really went into a lot of detail already, you know, But like you said, it's a divisional game.
It's strength versus strength.
Here you highlighted extremely you know how well the Chiefs offense is and how it's arguably one of the best in the league's right now, but they are going against one of the best defenses in the league. And just like we were talking about, it's a divisional matchup. So I expect this game to be stay within a touchdown considering just how well these two teams know each other, and that really might just be the biggest factor at the end of the day.
And like you said, you know, maybe there's a day Russ. Maybe Russ took some cooking.
Classes and he's ready to cook this, you know, this weekend and we'll see.
I mean, Broncos, let's ride baby.
No, that guy is eating raw food. He's not cooking anything. I've just projected at Broncos plus seven point twenty five. Where do you have it?
Ooh, you know, I have it actually at eight, so we're kind of right there.
Okay, yeah, all right. So a game that you are, another divisional game that you're looking at here, divisional dog that you like the Browns And this opened at four and a half I think in the look ahead market last week it was three and a half. Opened on Sunday night at four and a half, was bet up all the way to six and then now has moved back to five and a half. So there has been some money coming in on the Browns recently, the Browns on the road at the Bengals. You like the Browns here,
divisional dog five and a half. Talk to me about what you like with this team?
Yeah, you know, sell the Bengals by the Browns. Reason behind that is this is game number two of Deshaun Watson in the offense, and I expect significant improvement from last week's game. This is, like you mentioned, it's a divisional matchup with two heated rivals, and with Deshaun Watson suspended, this Brown's offense has still managed to be top ten in DBOA and EPA. Actually, and we know by now that they love to run the ball. It's one of the highest it's one of the highest rates in the
league right now. And do you know what the Bengals defense is bad at stopping the run? They are actually ranked twenty six and defensive rush EPA. And while Deshaun is still getting acclimated to this offense, I expect the Browns to employ a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and then look at them defensively. You have the Browns numbers are not that great this season, and I expect these numbers to change over time as the offense continues to improve.
Give them more rest in between drives.
So like I mentioned I'm selling on the Bengals at what I consider to be the high point season for them, and because they are coming off of a four game win streak, they went from a five hundred record to now a top three team in the AFC. Whereas the Browns, they're rolling into this game with a five and seven record and would love nothing more than to just unseat
their rivals. So I expect this game overall to be high scoring, as my projections actually have this being twenty seven to twenty four Bengals victory.
Okay, So really you have this as a three point game, Okay, So I'm I'm closer to the number that we have here. I have it at five. But it's there's just so much unknown with Deshaun Watson acclimating to the offense, and there's no way he is as bad as he was last week that was like easy, sort of like, Okay, he's going to have some rust type of situation. I would expect him to be significantly better here. So I know that there's a lot of volatility, a lot of
uncertainty built into the projection that I have here. So yeah, I mean, I think if if I were betting this for Cleveland, I might just take the money line, you know, because it's if we see, like the really good version of Deshaun Watson Cleveland, Cleveland could win, you know, like that's well within the range of outcomes here.
Yeah, definitely.
I mean, at the end of the day, who would you rather have well known Brissette or a rusty DeShawn I mean that's how I feel. Yeah, I mean I like the money line look too. But for me, whoever wins this game, I really I really see it.
But just waning by three?
All right? So one game here, final game here for us to talk about. And we are on opposite sides of this game, and I gotta say, you're probably right, like I will just I will. I will own my l Here Seahawks three and a half is the current number in the market they are hosting the Panthers. I feel embarrassed to say this. I bet this in the look ahead market at six and a half because I thought there was a much better chance that this number would get to seven then would get to three. And
evidently I was. I was very wrong. I mean very wrong there by the way I logged it in the betting pros app here here comes the plug, the Betting pros app where you can sync up with sports books, get free betting advice and picks, and track different experts in your own bets. And you can set alerts so we monitor all the major sports books. When one of them moves a line that hits a threshold you've set, you get an alert that tells you where to make the bet, at the book that offers the most value.
Download the app today in the Apple or Google Play, whor Okay, so you know, I was the more on who bet Seahawks at minus six and a half and it has massively moved against me and is now three and a half in the market. But I you know, I like Seattle. Here this is just I mean, I'm gonna be the donkey. But Gino Smith nine to six against the spread at home with the Seahawks, you know, and Pete Carroll fifty seven to forty one and three
against the spread at home with the Seahawks. I'll just say, like, I don't know, I feel like this market like when the market speaks, I've learned that I need to pay attention to it. But I'm literally betting that the market is wrong in this spot Seahawks at home have if not the best home field advantage in the league. I'd say top three pretty cleanly, maybe top five if you want to be conservative with it. The Panthers are coming off of the buy, which helps to kind of counterbalance
the fact that they're on the road. But I'm skeptical that the buy actually means all that much against the spread to a non playoff contender this late in the season, and when you factor in home field advantage for the Seahawks rest advantage for the Panthers, this line is saying that the Seahawks are about one to two points better than the Panthers, and I just think that's wrong. Like, without adjusting for short term injuries, I have the Seahawks
power rated is five points better than the Panthers. And maybe I'm being optimistically aggressive with the Seahawks pessimistically dismissive of the Panthers, who are on their third quarterback. And that third quarterback is Sam Donald. And this is like a great sort of like crossroads meeting of like Sam Darnald and and Geno Smith as like two guys discarded by the Jets, and like one of them is actually like kind of like become the guy that the Jets would have hoped he could be, and one of them
totally hasn't. And you know, Donald as the guy who's who's coming into this just his second start on the season, Like, I think he's still going to be getting used to that offense. But you know, the massive Peabody power rankings they have, the Seahawks is four point five six points better than the Panthers. So I feel like my line of five isn't all that out of step with another set of power rankings I really have respect for. So I just I don't believe that I'm out of line
with reality. I think the market is out of line. But you're you're in line with the line that we see here. You like the Panthers at plus four plus three and a half? What do you see in the Panthers?
Yeah, I mean I'll just start off by saying, you make a good argument. I'll give you that.
And you know, if this was Seattle minus three or less, I could totally buy into the Hawks. But at minus three and a half and higher, I'd have to lean opposite of them in this game.
I mean, who really wants to bet on the Panthers? Really?
I mean, they looked horrible all season long, but like you said, the market is speaking volumes in my opinion, and you know this is why I am again leaning Carolina at plus four. Like you had mentioned, they are coming off a bye, so they've had two weeks to prepare and this season, NFL teams following the bye week are actually fifteen and nine straight up, So it's not a long shot that the Panthers could win this game outright. I mean, I'll take the points, and travel is not
an issue in this game. Again, well rested from their bye, and they are going up against one of the top defenses in the league. I mean, sorry, they went up against one of the top defenses in the league, the Denver Broncos, and Sam Darnold was actually pretty efficient. He didn't turn the ball over and he they ran the ball a ton, and Panthers are a better team offensively when they run the ball a lot, and I expect them to do the same to keep the ball out
of Gino Smith's hands. So that's why I'm going to take the points on this one and I'll take Carolina.
The one thing, and your point to the running game for the Panthers is well taken and Dante Foreman has been really good. I think as the you know, kind of mid season replacement for Christian McCaffrey after the trade, the injury report situation with him, Like, I think he's
probably gonna play. He didn't practice yesterday, he did practice today on a limited basis, so he's probably going to play, but he is dealing with a foot injury, and so if he if he's not quite his full self, like I start to have a little less faith in the offense for the Panthers. But do you have any thoughts on on his injury situation?
Yeah, I mean I think you pretty much highlighted everything that you know, Uh, it's unfortunate that he was limited with practice, but I still at the end of the day, I think he's gonna play.
Yeah, So yeah, yeah, he probably does. All right, So we're we're on opposite sides there. I mean, I feel like you're you're you're on the sharper side here. I just have to imagine given how strongly the market moved against the Seahawks here, and you know, I actually kind of want to ask like a bigger picture question here the Seahawks because I think something kind of goes into this line of maybe the book makers, the odds makers think that a certain perspective exists of the Seahawks, and
then the market moves against them. But how are you viewing the Seahawks here? You know, because now that we've had the brock pretty injury in San Francisco, the Seahawks have chance of winning this division if they can string together some wins here like they are, they're within striking distance. But it seems as if the market really doesn't think that the Seahawks are really even an average team. What what is your overall assessment of the Seahawks?
Yeah, you know, I was even just looking at just maybe my top five NFC teams that I like, and you know, I Seahawks are kind of they're they're up there, They're getting up there. I mean, you know, looks good, just like you've been talking about. I mean, that's every you know, we're all seeing it, how well he's playing this season. But I just don't know how legitimate they get deep in the playoffs. And even with San Francisco's situation,
I kind of still like him. You know, Shanahan doesn't care about his quarterbacks.
We know this.
His system is based on running the ball yards after the catch and defense. Uh, pretty should be able to manage this offense. So as much as that might be a big issue with the Niners, I'm I'm kind of leaning more towards liking the Niners still more than liking the Seahawks at at this.
Time right now.
Yeah, I mean, as good as Gino Smith has been playing and showing him you know, and you know, of showing just how well he's playing actually the season and he's you know, at the end of the day, I'm still with the Niners.
Yeah, wins championships.
I certainly still have the Niners ahead of the Seahawks in my my power ratings, you know, still still the better team. Okay, So Jessica, thanks for joining us. Tell the people where to follow you on social and where to find the work that you're doing and any pieces any content that you have coming out.
Yeah, definitely, I mean you can find me.
The biggest way to find me is on Twitter, so grid Aaron and Wine and there that's where you'll be able to see where I post things. For Action Network is the majority of where all my work will be found as well, but I post a lot of plays on there. You can always message me through there and as well as catch any articles or anything like that I'll writing.
All right, the grid Iron and wine do you also? Do you do like wine content? Are you a connoisseur of vino?
I'm a connoisseur of all forms of alcohol, but.
Yes, you know is one of my favorite. But yes, I mean I don't.
I don't have like a whole any type of show or anything like that specifically on wine. But I always talk about wine, and I've spent some time in Napa, and I'm always down to drink some wine.
Okay, good to know. It's a good handle. It's a great Twitter handle.
Thank you.
Yeah, it's better. It's better than Matt F. The Oracle Man if I could go back in time anyway. All right, Jessica, thanks for joining the show. She is Jessica Gridiron. I'm Matthew Friedman at Matt F the Orcle. Check out Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros for all of my work best bets, player props, Fantasy favorites, player projections and rankings, and more.
If you like the show, please rate interview on your favorite podcast app that is going to do it for the Week fourteen Best Bets edition of the Betting Pros Pod. Thanks for tuning in, good Luck and See you Now, Episode h