Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris. With me, of course, is Matt Perrault. You can find us on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi and at Sports Talk Matt the hottest NFL better that I've ever seen in my life. Matt, What a week for you? Man?
Well, wasn't just the NFL. But yeah, I mean, you know, when you get on a roll like this, you just kind of ride it and you just hope that it doesn't stop. I mean, at the time of taping, we've hit twenty of our last twenty three bets on The
Daily Juice. If you got a bet late in uh during the week on Wednesday, you actually won because I got a worse number than actually what went off at Wisconsin under basketball play that I had at one thirty eight and one thirty four thirty three different books and people bet it. By the time the more and came around, the number had dropped so much that it was a beneficiary to the to the Daily Juice audience. So really it's twenty one and two for certain players out there.
So yeah, I mean when it's like this, I went five to oh in the Circa when five to oh in the Westgate we went four and one. I mean, just as it's been a crazy week.
Yeah, well, first, sorry for keeping into just the NFL, but you know that's when people are here for the PA, So that's why I missed that. But number two, you saw the board so clearly last week because even one of the ones that we went to, which was the Colts, like we kind of looked out in that game, you were on the other side. That was it, right, right, You were on the other side of that one originally.
Yeah, yeah, I wanted the Texans, and I mean it very easily could have been the Texans if it wasn't for that fumble body Sean Watson. Yeah, that's the right side.
That was the right side. Yeah, but whatever, we'll take it. Obviously, as as you said on the Daily Juice, things even out. This is the whole point of how it works. But we'll break down every game this weekend. Let's recap the the DraftKings contest. As Matt said, we went four and one. We hit on the saintslaning two and a half to the Falcons. The Colts lank three and a half to the Texans, as I just mentioned the Patriots are getting
a half a point from the Chargers. That was not close, the Washington football team getting eight and a half from the Steelers, and we missed on the Raiders leank seven and a half to the Jets. I said last week on the show that I thought Matt and I needed to go fourteen and one over our final three weeks. Remember we have one bye week still to go. Matt attacked my math as usual Maclos, and he later on
realized that he was wrong. So we do need to We did need to go fourteen to one to hit sixty percent right now, that is still the cutoff for being in the money. We went four and one, so we've got to sweep. We've got to sleep right now. It may not end up that way, maybe a little lower, but right now, that's where it is. So let's get into this right now. Matt out, what's that? Where are we We're at the low two hundreds out of six hundred and ninety one two top we're two hundred fifteen.
I think, oh, okay, yeah, we're there. I mean, and I think the top eighty right now are getting paid because it's tied and stuff like that. So we're there. We gained I don't know, one hundred spots last week with a four and one. We will move up if we get it, and I remember a lot of people. You know. It depends on the bye weeks that are remaining. We have won, so one of the next three weeks could be this week. Don't know for sure. We have to take one of our bye weeks. But Matt, let
me ask you. Because we don't talk about this other than one pick, which we'll get to, which my guess is gonna be your top pick. We don't talk about it much. Are you loved last week? I didn't you loved last week?
Coming in?
Do you love this week? Asma?
I don't love it. I like it, I don't love it. I'm coming around on it, but I'm in the like you know, I'm in the beginning part of dating. I'm not noting it yet, but I'm close. I'm coming around. There are games I like.
Okay, well, let's talk about it now. Let's start with you. And you know, there was one game that we talked about, and there was a game that we had to talk about because it's a game that if we'd like. By the time people are listening, to this, we will have already played and if so, we will play it on Twitter. Is that your number one pick of the weekend, Matt.
It is, and it's it's if you listen to the Daily Juice, you already have this. But I'm all over the Rams tonight, and I think this is if you look at the ultra of point spreads in Vegas, it's ten and a half. For a reason, because I think this is a ten point victory for the Rams tonight. I don't think the Patriots are gonna score. I think the Unders a play as well, but I think the Patriots.
I have it at twenty seven seventeen somewhere in that range, twenty four to fourteen, somewhere in that range here for the Rams. And I don't get the Patriot love. I don't get the Patriot play. I don't get the money coming in on the Patriots. I know all these stats are pointing towards the Patriots on a Thursday night victory short you know, short week they stayed out there out west.
If you're beating the Chargers forty five, nothing, blah blah blah, all those stats have Tom Brady at the quarterback spot, not Cam Newton. Don't think the Patriots can score it all here against the Rams. I think it's a complete mismatch right now. For what the Patriots are good at doing. I don't think they're going to be able to move the ball. And I think you can play man de man defense with Jalen Ramsey in that secondary and put eight in the box and say go ahead and try
to run the football. And the Patriots, I don't think they've got an offensive line capable of blowing out holes like that, So Rams ten points are more tonight.
I can usually I feel like make a case for myself as to how one team's gonna win a game, especially when it's a single digit spread like this and under a touchdown. It's really hard for me to see away. I mean, this is dumb because people, by the time they're listening to this, this game has been played already,
so I don't want to go crazy with it. It really is tough to see the way that the Patriots win and the consensus spread, by the way, it's five and a half in our contest, which, by the way, one lesson I've learned is that the Matt peraltisms are full of nonsense. Okay, Matt, but I will make a rule until it's not a role.
Also, have I bet a five and a half?
I don't think so, I hold my rules.
I'm betting this one because I don't care. You can give me up to nine and a half and I'm still taking the rams.
All right. The other thing that I've learned is that if I'm on a position, Matt usually won't listen to me. But if he goes and talks to quote unquote smart people who are also on the same side, He's willing to be convinced.
But regardless of course, Well, what't I do? I got it?
I got it. What's weird, man, is the consensus line that we're showing like a cross is four and a half, not even five.
There will be books before this game kicks off that will be at four.
Why, I mean, I legitimately can't figure it out other than you.
Know, Belichick versus Anthony Lynn has them convinced that it's Bill Belichick versus Sean McVay is as big of mismatches last week.
That's not though Anthony Karen is like in a class by himself. I mean, I agreeing them obviously, they they you know, in the Super Bowl, like they they figured out how to you know, keep the Rams from scoring points, but they had different personality. The only way I really see this is if, like the differential and special teams, Patriots are really good, you know, sink right, they're third in DVOA and special teams, the Rams are thirty. So
it's gonna take something like that. So I'm gonna put it.
I mean, think about the logic of that, though. You're gonna bet no, you're right that the Patriots are gonna score points in special teams where it hadn't happened all year, and they blocked a field goal for a touchdown, had a punt return for a touchdown. So it's gonna happen in back to back weeks after not happening all year. Come on, that's ridiculous.
Yeah, yeah, I'm with you. I think it's going to be in the picks. And by the time you're listening to this, we're either probably really happy or really we.
Haven't take any advantage. I mean that there have been numerous Thursday games we tape this on Thursday this season that we both have liked and said, oh, well, it's Thursday, we're taping it. We're not going to take it. And we have not taken advantage of the rule that you can place one bet Thursday. That's it, the one pick, and then the other four later in the weekend. So we haven't taken advantage of this. And I just think
this is a situation will play for me. Patriots back to back weeks on the West Coast, and look, take all these numbers about like teams that were favored on the road that win and come back at home on a Thursday at home lose. They're three to nine and one against the number. You know, I don't care. I don't care what numbers are. It's this Patriots team without much talent in the on the wide receiver and corps,
no tight end to catch the football. I mean, they already saw the Damien Harris wildcat against the Chargers, so you can't even you know, you can't even shock them by going with that because they've already seen it. So I mean, look again tomorrow when this drops, I might be looking like an idiot, But if the Patriots win this game, I'm ecstatic as a Patriot fan. I'm in love. I don't see it.
Yeah, I mean, the best thing I could say is that I think the public's still because of Belichick and because of the leftovers from Brady looks to get excited about the Patriots. And you know, a game where they win forty five to nothing and they beat Arizona that I could see the money coming in necessarily on the Patriots, but the sharp players. This just doesn't seem like the right line to me.
I mean, that's what I don't get because I don't see everyone I'm talking to. It's Rams, Rams, Rams, right, and then people that are on Twitter like, well, the experts are picking the Patriots. I'm like, what experts picking the Patriots? No one I'm talking to, So I mean, no one I see, no one. I follow everyone that I know is on the Rams big tonight. So I don't know. I mean, I feel comfortable with the people I trust that they like you, and other people feel like,
how are the Patriots scoring in? Belichick's a master, But I mean, this is a really tough spot in my mind.
Yeah me too. So I'm almost positive we're going to be picking this game. So I'm gonna put in right now with pencil, but we're going to assume that's in, and then we'll have a fun night going on here. Okay, I have so that that was actually my number one, But that shows you just kind of how I knew you were going to go with it. So I figured that we were going to go with it. I don't have strong feel like I have like five or six games that I'm like, all right, I could do.
Well. There's one stat to bring up here, So ten of the sixteen games this year have road favorites. So it's an awkward week for that reason. We got a lot of short lines. Yeah, there's not a lot of big lines, but a lot of short road favorites, like two and a half, one and a half threes all over the board, which is kind of tough because it's really okay on neutral field, it's a six point line if your favorite on the road by three. So it's a little bit of a difficult week for that reason.
Yeah, okay, so here's what I'm gonna throw this one out. But don't you know this is not a this is my number one or my number two. Like it's legitterally as large.
Literally that's a great word. Legitterally. Yeah.
Wow, Yeah, how about there, I'm gonna go with the bucks laying six and a half to the Vikings in Tampa. So here's my rationale and then we can talk about it. Uh. The Bucks are, of course off of Bye, which I think is pretty important. I don't know if there's ever been one. I should research it, whether there's ever been a week thirteen by and for an old you know, quarterback like Brady, but just for the team, I think they really needed to catch their breath. There are a
couple of concerns here. Mike Evans, you know, was downgraded. You know, he was still battling the hamstring. Then I guess he didn't play today, which never is a good sign. But Chris Godwin sounds like he's going to be fine. Ali Marpt is finally going to come back. That's a big sort of thing. And really I think when the Bucks struggled, they just struggle against good defenses the Vikings. If they could get pressure, fine, but they don't get
a ton of pressure. They're dealing with injuries themselves. With Hendrix who's down on defense, Kyle Rudolph doesn't sound good like he's gonna go I think, really, you know, they're gonna be able to stop Dalvin Cook. For the most part, Cook is fantastic, but it's a great run defense. And then I think you're gonna put it in Kirk Cousins hands, like good luck. You know. I like to fade Kirk Cousins, and we talked about how last week. So I think this is a game where the Bucks actually come out
they need to win. They come out at home and put up a big number on the board and under a touchdown, I feel okay about it. So the Bucks selling six and half is one of my pals.
I like it. It's on my list. I like it, and I like it for a couple of reasons. One Brady over a. You know, coming out of the by, traditionally Tom Brady. You know this is with Belichick obviously, but coming out of the by, they normally have new wrinkles. They normally put in either new route trees or they put in new type of alignments, and so it changes up what they were doing. And I think Bruce arians
will be smart enough to do this. The only reason why I hesitate, the only reason why it's not higher on my list is because I am hoping and I am borderline praying that Bruce as has changed the offense during the bye week to incorporate more short passes to stop this down the field crap and just I know you got Mike Evans and Godwin and whatnot, but let's talk about slant routes. Let's talk about you know, guys in the slot. Let's let's bring back what was working
earlier in the year with Scottie Miller. Let's use the tight ends as much as they were before, not just in the red zone. If they do that, I think they'll put up a big number here, and they'll score a lot on that secondary for the Vikings, and I think they'll cover the line easily. So that's my only hesitation that is Bruce arians really that stubborn or does he finally wake up and realize what he's got at quarterback and put in better pass plays for his quarterback.
So I think he's been disappointing already, the fact that he's like, why are you still doing this? Like you and I can sit here and watch this and as smart as the two of us are and as much football as we watch, like he's an NFL coach, Like we know that this is not the game plan you should be running right now with Tom Brady, Like it's very clear what you should be doing. So the fact that he hasn't done it yet is wrecking. But again I agree off of By, they need to win at
this point. This is nothing. And again this is much a fade of Kirk Cousins, which you know we like, you know, we're always like, when's the Kirk Cousins fade game? It really was last week. I guess.
Yes, this is a team.
This is a team that could have easily lost to the Mike Glennon led Jacksonville Jaguars. They're just not that good. I think the Bucks come out here. I think they make a little bit of a statement. So I do like the game. Again, not not something far and away, but let's put it on the pencil list and we'll talk about it going in. But we're on the same side, so that's good. Who's your next one?
Okay, So I've got two teams that I'm really concerned about in December as to what they've done early versus what they've done late. One's the Raiders and one's the Cardinals. First, let's start with the Raiders, Indianapolis and our pool laying two and a half. There's been money here that's trying to push this to three. It probably will be three
by the time the game kicks off or higher. But I'm really concerned about where the Raiders are, and I think there are some legitimate issue with that offensive line. With no Regie in cognito, they're not running the ball nearly as successfully as they were. Derek Carr, after starting out really hot, has now started to turn the football over and starting to really regress. Yes, Waller is an absolute beast, and I love the guy, but I mean, Agalar's come around a little bit. I know you've got
some third down guys who can move the chains. But just the fact that the Jets were in that game, and they should have won the game if it wasn't for what I call heard it today a suicide play call by Greg Williams, which I thought was an awesome way of describing.
Yeah, the zerog Williams is my hero. Don't worry about it. Greg Williams is my hero.
That he did did to go ahead, hit Ruggs down the sidelines, Ruggs fumble in the football and not looking good all that, I mean, that game was on him. If it wasn't for Yeah, it wasn't for that. I just think Indianapolis because there's no pressure coming on Philip Rivers. I think Pittman has really stepped up and played nicely. I mean, obviously you got t Y. The running games come around. I think Indianapoli is just a much better overall football team here. I'm laying less than on a
field goal. I want Indianapolis mist two and a half.
Yeah, I'm good with that. I again, let's right now. I think we're on the you know, we've got three games that I feel pretty decent about. It was on my list. I have backed the Colts a lot this year. This game against the Texans scared me a little bit because I really thought that this was one that the fact that you probably should have lost to a team without will Fuller, without Roby really nerve wrecking. Rivers is
clearly hobbled by the toe. But I agree they found a way to get t Y Hilton involved, whether he was fully healthy or not. They still have Michael Pittman Jr. They are thankfully turning it over to Jonathan Taylor on the ground a little more, and their offensive line, by the way, is getting healthy. That is a big deal for them. They were beat up a little bit. I think they're going to be basically at full strength in
this game. So yeah, I'm good with this. It's one of the ones that was on my list, so I feel pretty good about it. And yeah, and again I like to just see what the general our consensus is, and about seventy four percent are on India as well. That seems to be the right side underfield goal, Matt, Yeah, that seems to be the right side to me. Now, what was the other one that you were talking about, Arizona?
No, well, yeah, so the Giants are catching two and a half points against the Cardinals at home. Yeah, I just I think the much like the Cardinals, much like the Raiders. The Cardinals are flailing and the Giants are playing really good smash mouth December football. I like what Joe Judge is doing. I don't care who played with, whether you Colt McCoy or Danny Dimes, I don't really care.
I know getting Fitzgerald back is big, but he lost nine pounds during his COVID nineteen battle and he definitely is not going to be one hundred percent. You just don't come back. I've had this starn virus. You don't come back that fast and you're you know, look what happened to Cam Newton. Look how kind of you you. Sometimes you're just in a mind fog. I was in a brain fog for a good month and a half after COVID. It's just it's not something you want to
play around with. I just think the Cardinals are in trouble. I think this is the schedule is going against them. I don't think Kyler mur is healthy. And the Giants, I mean, I just think they're coming around and they're playing really good football in December, catching two and a half points at home. I like the Giants.
Yeah, I don't hate it. It's not one of my favorite. Like I don't put it in the same bucket as you know, the Colts with the Raiders, I would lean that way. If I'm if I'm forced to pick a side, I would. It's just it's, you know, it's weird, Matt. Sometimes I find it hard even where IN'SO week fourteen, you know, and you know I look at players really closely because I protect and everything before the season coming in.
It's just hard for they're playing really well, the Giants, their defense in particular, and if it's legitimate, then yeah, this is the right side for sure. And again Murray, it's a lot of it is on Murray, who doesn't look fully healthy. I just don't. I don't. I don't feel that comfortable with it.
Like he just stopped running. Murray stopped running. I mean, I know he's their best weapon. He just know it has to be because he's not healthy. He's just not scattering around like he normally does, picking up first downs and burning defenses.
Yeah. Yeah, all right, let's put it on the maybe list.
I do.
I will really want to know your feelings on this one, Matt, because again, you were the Bills fader the whole season, on the list all you were all over.
Them on the list. They're on the list.
Wait, they're on the list to take the Bills. Oh no, the Steelers. Oh yes, good, that's where I'm at, too, very good. Okay, I got nervous for a second. They're getting two and a half points against the Bills. This strikes me as massive overreaction to me as to what we saw. The Bills looked awesome.
Aline flipped five points.
Is that what it was?
It flipped five points? It was two and a half for the Steelers. It's not two and a half for the Bills. Yeah, five points, get out of.
Here, and they look great. And you were on that game. You were all over that game. I was on the other side of that game. Frankly, I thought that the forty nine Ers find a way to win. They weren't even close. Yeah, you were all over that. And it's like the Steelers, I mean, give me a break, Like they can lose a game. Everyone's like, they're not going to go undefeated on the season. Big deals. Washington football
team is underrated. They have a very strong defense. What does make me nervous is the fact that they are so horribly beat up at linebacker at this point. I mean, Robert Splaine is down, Vince Williams just went on the COVID list. They're really beat up there. Even Hayden has
hurt a little bit. But there are spots. I think the one thing that you can think about is Mike Tomlin is kind of a really predictable coach when it comes to betting, right, you fade him when they're like favorites, right when it's the game that you know they should win, and when there's a ra ra moment, when there's a people aren't believing in me, you know this is what we need to come up. That's when you jump right
on because he is an incredible motivational coach. Josh Allen looked like the best quarterback in football this past week, but we've seen it. We've seen it now for a couple of seasons. He is super inconsistent. He's gonna come out one day, he's going to look like the best quarterback in football, and the next day's gonna be like, what is this human being doing at this moment with the ball? So sounds like I don't really need to convince you
the home field advantage by the way. You know that like I fear Buffalo when there are fans there like that, that's when it gets nervous. Now, I don't that means nothing at this point.
I also think if you go back and watch the game against Washington, how many drops did Ebron have? Nine?
They always have the many. The unfortunate part is that they are always dropping those balls like Deontay Johnson and Eric Gebron their drop machines. But my guess is though that like I wouldn't want to be like playing for Tomlin at this point if with all those drops.
Right, well, in the Ravens game. That didn't look good, right, So, I mean they've played a bunch of games where they've had to play a ton of Look, I just think this is a primetime game. Everyone's selling on the Steelers. You know, maybe they'll run the ball a bit more. I mean, the Bills can't stop running anybody running the football, so I think that maybe they kind of go back to old school Steeler football and run.
With That's a little right, That's that's part of the unfortunate part is that the Steelers really have no run game at this point. They were beat up on the offensive line, but they choose just to throw. That's fine, but you're gonna I don't know. Also, this last game, and I'm I'm analyzing it more from a fantasy football perspective, I do not know why Chase Claypole suddenly was not on the field nearly as much as he had been in the past. He's a great playmaker. My guess is
they'll get him out there more. So. Yeah, I just think this is a bounce back spot.
Yeah, I love it. I mean two and a half catching two and a half, I'll bet it. I'm waiting to see if I can get three or yeah, right, So I mean before I bet it, I want three or higher. But it's a primetime game for the Pittsburgh Steelers here to come back. And I mean, look, anytime I can fade Josh Allen.
Josh Allen, I know. And after a game where you were like, nah, Bill's, Bill's for sure Bill's, I was like, wow, okay, I don't know where we are, so yeah, okay, good, that's another one. Then all right, what do you got? You got any others that you like?
So there's a couple other that I want to talk about. And yes, I wouldn't necessarily that I'm in love with this. But how do you feel about the Philadelphia Eagles catching seven and a half against New Orleans?
I have no idea how to analyze it with Hurts. I mean, talk me through it.
Because I watching what what when Hurts came in, what I saw was a spark.
Yeah.
I saw an offense that was working. I sawur receivers getting open. I saw Sanders running hard. I saw the offensive line, which is a complete mess, but they're blocking well enough. And I think because the line's a mess, you need a mobile quarterback who can run around and Hurts can run over people. He's tough enough to run through linebackers if he needs to. So I think I saw something there that maybe go okay. And then Taysom Hill has been running the ball really effectively, but the
you know, the run defense for the Eagles is not horrible. Yeah, so I wonder if you got I'm catching more than a touchdown here seven and a half. I think everyone's gonna gonna go. Oh, Taysom Hill and the Saints here we go. But it's their third consecutive road game for New Orleans, which is something you almost never see in the NFL. Three consecutive games on the road is really
really rare. And if you want to go old school gambling adage, you always fade the team that's on the road for the third consecutive week.
Right, and now is the road? I mean is it doesn't mean as much with the fact that there are like few or no fans in most stadiums.
I think it's more travel. It's more that you're constantly on the move. You're never situated in your home or in your bed. You're always you know, getting up and flying. And then all the COVID protocols and everything else that goes into it. I just think this Saint I mean the Saints. I think they'll win the game. Yeah, but I'm catching seven and a half points. That hook matters to be a lot there.
Well, it's funny because I'm looking at the consensus lines available in the market and it's six and a half. Now, So that would probably be a different story for you, right if that were the line and the.
Go yeah, without a doubt. I mean, six and a half is dangerous. I still would look at it at six and a half, but seven and a half. It's on the list because it's seven and a half.
Yeah, Okay, I mean I think that that one's kind of if for me, mainly just because I think what you're saying is right. First of all, the offense is going to look better, just because it can't possibly look worse. And what's funny is that as bad as that offense has looked, I mean, they should have covered against the Packers if not for the Aaron Jones like eighty yard run at the end, Right, they were going to cover that spread despite looking like the worst team in football.
Their defense is legitimate, but it makes me a little nervous for me to not like really know what we're gonna you know, see from Hurtz. Given that now this is not a random let's put in this guy. Let's see what happens. Oh, everybody doesn't know how to react. Is he gonna run?
Is he not?
You know, suddenly these very very slow wide receivers are getting open. When you give a team with a very strong defense, you know, six days to prepare for the game, whether or not, it's still going to be quite that easy. So I think it's more something where if forced to pick a side, I think I would go Eagles, but I don't think I'm ready to put that one in the contest. So that's that's fair one. Let me throw out some other ugly games, which I also do not
like at all. This is you know, if we talk about ugly teams, Matt that I'm like, why don't we bet on this team? It's usually the Falcons. You were surprised that I wasn't on them last WI. They are laying two and a half points to the Chargers. This is basically as much of a fade of Anthony Lynn and the Charters as it is to do anything with the Falcons. But the Falcons are playing better. I mean, let's talk.
About I'm not I'm blow your mind here.
You're on the Chargers. Yeah, Matt, Wow, Okay, that that's interesting to me, Matt. This is what I was looking this up today. Okay, so wayed DVA is basically takes new cat your most recent games, the worst, the worst team in the league in total DVOA offenseive defense. Who do you think it is? Who's the worst possible team in football? Right now? Forget about the Chargers. The worst possible team the Jets, right oh yeah, last their last
in DVA. The second worst team in way to DVA is the Charger The best better teams than the Chargers, the Bengals, the Broncos, the Cowboys, the Jaguars, the Lions, the Eagles. They are second to last. They are playing terribly. They are incredibly terribly coached. And again I think I know Raheem Morris, the Falcons have been better.
Yeah, but laye, the Falcons be laying points to anybody.
It's that's that's a very very fair point. That's a very fair point. And again, look again, I just like to see where generally the experts sort of go, just generally, how it breaks down and it's fifty eight percent around the Chargers. So I'm not an overwhelming sort of thing, but that that is probably the feeling about it, and it's on the road. But for me, Man, I don't know. At this point, I'm probably just gonna fade the Chargers every single time.
See, I think Herbert's got a chance to put up a big number here. That's the crap defense.
Yes, so I agree with that. I agree.
That's why I don't. I'm not so worried about the Chargers defense as much as I think that Herbert throws for like three point fifty. Yeah, it just has a monster, monster.
Game because you will talk about that, you know, back to.
Back, back to back weeks. He hasn't done well. But I just think Herbert's going to bounce back. And it looked like he did about a month ago when he was passing the ball on everybody.
Yeah. Now, I mean I think all of that is fair for me. I couldn't back there, Like, there's under no circumstances could I back the Chargers in any game at this point because I just I just don't feel confident. I mean, Matt, they were that game against the Patriots, we like the Patriots. We like them to win that game.
I like it lost. I like the Pats the last two weeks. We've been on them the last two weeks. That's true, an hour off because it was I mean, look, this is sometimes you just see the board really clearly. This is what I said. I said, went over the Cardinals, went over the Chargers, last to the Rams. So that's true.
Let's hope you're right. If you're listening right now, you know whether or not that was right right where they were? All right, So let's let's skip that game. You got a couple other games you thought that, Yes.
Okay, I want to talk through Ravens Browns. Yes, okay. So we were talking about fading quarterbacks in fading Josh Allen, isn't this the greatest fade spot on Baker Mayfield? Given what he just did and all the hype and all the running around and all the wave and the arms and all the nonsense he was doing. Isn't this now the time to fade him and to say the Ravens are going to get right here and smash the Browns.
It's on my list, Yeah, it's on my list. This is Monday night, I believe right, correct, And yeah, and the Ravens are laying one and a half in our contest right now, the consensus line is up to two and a half. So yeah, this has to be. And I like the Browns and I've got I've got a future that I'm feeling pretty good about. With Stefanski winning Coach of the Year, I think he's done a good job with this team. But this team, and you were
on them also, Matt. I mean, I don't know whatever you were drinking last week, I want some of it, because you were all over the Browns too. I wouldn't let us take it. You were all over the Browns over the Titans in that game. But I'm I'm totally ready to fade the Browns in this spot. And I think the Ravens are going to They know what they need to do at this point. They know they basically
got to win out essentially. I saw some stat that said there's like a forty chance that a ten win team, even with the extra playoffs, is going to miss the playoffs in the AFC. They've got to win. They know they've got to win. So yeah, I'm I'm totally good with fading the Browns and going with the Ravens in the spot for sure.
I love this. Again, this is a short number to one and a half, so it's basically a pick. And I just think in terms of coaching, I like Stefanski, I do, but I think this is you know, you're getting into December, must win territory for the Ravens. They had their swoon and Lamar's back, Lamar's running, and I mean they should have all three of their running backs
in this game. Coming up a Monday night, Yep, it's prime time for Baker Mayfield and oftentimes that means big time fade opportunity for Baker Mayfield.
And again, I mean Zeke looked better than I expected and flooked. But I think if you've got another week of health from Brandon Williams and from Kalais Campbell, that the line that the run defense is going to be very good if you're going to force Baker Mayfield. And again, remember they don't really have any wide receiver that could possibly scare you. Jervis Sundry is a fine player at this point in his career, but Richard Higgins isn't scaring you.
I mean, Austin Hooper is not. They've got to run the ball if the Ravens focus on taking that away. I also don't think that the Browns are really going to be able to stop you know, Lamar Jackson. They'll get Mark Andrews back. Hollywood brown is playing better. So yeah, I like it. I'm with you on that one. All right, let me throw out how do you feel about the Titans link seven and a half to the Jaguars in Jacksonville.
Yeah, this is one of the games I've looked at closely, and boy, last week scared me a little bit because I was on the Jags last week plus ten against the Vikings, yep, and I just I'm wondering, can they keep the game close, like, because they're gonna throwing every down like they just oh yeah, they don't care. Jaggs don't care. Jags are just chucking the football all over the place. And I'm a little nervous about that defense for the Titans.
Yeah.
He just got shredded by the Browns.
Yeah, I agree. The biggest thing for me is again, I don't I don't love this game. It's over a touchdown and the Jags have an innate ability to hang around.
Yeah.
Now, and again, remember last week, as much as they almost won that game. I mean that the first touchdown of the week was that preposterous catch by Leaviska Chanot, which should have been picked. Like they they're getting lucky to hang around, and you can see an angry Titans team in this one, right, an embarrassed Titans team. Now AJ Brown is not practiced this week, and he did hurt his ankle in that game. He came back, So if AJ Brown didn't play, I really wouldn't like them
that much. But I don't like the seven and a half. That's the side on I'd be on, but I don't like it better. We have five games right now, Matt, and we'll get to them. But five games, though, like I'm totally fine with at this point. I don't like the Titans better than that. But if you were for us to choose a side, do you like them at seven and a half or would you?
I mean, I guess so because Henry just runs the football like crazy and just you know, choose up the clock and they win like I don't know, like twenty eight ten or something like. Yeah, I can see it, but I mean I'm nervous about my Titans. Nine and a half win bet because much like the I feel like there was a couple, they're three teams I'm nervous about.
In December, we talked about two of them, and the Titans are the third one that I was concerned about in December because that defensive performance was disgusting against the Browns. Now granted credit Stefanski. They practiced all week to stop Chubb and to stop Hunt, and all of a sudden, Baker came out and threw every down. They weren't ready for that. They were like, what are we doing? Are
we practiced stopping the run and now we're stuck. And that showed a little bit of an inflexibility with with Mike Vrabel, which kind of exposed him a little bit there that they couldn't get out of their defensive sets. But I'm comfortable that they win. I don't know about the seven and a half.
Yeah, I mean my guess is that they will say, well, well we'll try this again. We'll stop James Robinson. Then if if Mike Lennon can beat us with you know, DJ Shark and Colin Johnson, will take our chances. But over a touchdown, I get nervous regardless I'm on that opportunity. I'm on that side. But yeah, I'm i'd be well in the past. Okay, any other games that you're kind of liking at all?
No, not really, I mean, I mean I I looked at the I was if the Panthers had Christian McCaffrey, I would have taken to Panthers. But without Christian McCaffrey, that's a complete no play. Now I have to stay far far away from from that game. And it's really kind of frustrating because.
And again they don't have DJ. I mean, I'm sure DJ Moore is not going to play, given that he's on the COVID list, and we don't even know if Curtis Sanduel is going to play because he's.
You know close, and I can't I can't back drew locks.
So it's like no, no, no, stay away game.
That was the only side I would have with McCaffrey playing, would have I would have said, I would have been on the table here about three and a half for the Panthers, But just too much uncertainty, So that that was the old The other game that I was kind of looking at and then like gun to my head if I had to pick it. I would take the Jets plus thirteen and a half against.
The Seas Also another game where there's no way for me to analyze that game and think that the value isn't on the Jets. Yeah, and there's no way I can back the Jets right in the game, like right, Like, that's what that game boils down to at this point.
I mean, the pros will take it that the pros who bet the board it will take.
The pros are going to pound that number without it that they will love the thirteen and a half. They will be more because that is value on the Jets. And the Jets, to their quote unquote credit, are playing better offensively. They're down Denzel mims that that's not gonna make a huge difference, but it does take away one of their weapons. But yeah, the Seahawks probably could win this game by twenty five points if they decided to do it. But you know the Seahawks, they like to play c looks games.
It's just something to do up there. Though. Something's going on in Seattle. Something's not right right now with them. I mean, I don't know if it's Pete Carroll or Russell Wilson believing his own press clippings too much, or you know, the league figuring out DK or what. But it's it's not looking great. The whole MVP Russ campaign has really stalled.
Oh yeah, Now, I think that unless he goes nuts at the end, I think that that race is pretty much over. To the extent he was in it, I think he was down to Mahomes, maybe Rogers, maybe Allen if he has a huge finish, who knows. All Right, let's get to a couple other games here, and I have a slight lean on on a couple of them, but not strong. How do you feel about the Chiefs links seven and a half to the Dolphins in Miami?
See two of playing leads me to bet the Chiefs. Yeah, so if it was Fitzpatrick, I would probably bet. I probably bet the Miami Dolphins if it was Fitzpatrick. But I just don't think two is the right guy to be playing right now. And I just can't believe that the team consistently wants to force Tua. And he's a game manager at best. He's accurate with the football, I get it, but like you know, you're gonna ride your defense, and the problem is when you're trying to stop the Chiefs. Yikes.
I mean, you've got to be able to score with them. I don't care how good your defense is, you got to be able to score with them. I don't think Miami could score with them. So my only concern is just that Dolphins defense has been so good at turning the football over. What happens if they get a fubble, couple of picks or whatever it might be. And you know, the Chiefs haven't really been interested in killing people. They
just want to win the games. True, they want to They want to go into the playoffs and that's when they'll really turn it on. But they're you know, they're winning games by four to five points a bit more too much for my liking to back them there.
I agree that that really is the thing. They don't have the we're gonna win this game by twenty points at all. They just don't seem interested, like yeah, because you definitely think you see, you know, you get Hi Patrick Mahomes. You have forty five seconds and no timeouts to drive the entire field and it's like just a snap of his fingers and it's done. They could score whenever they want to do it, but they just don't
seem interested in really going. You've got again the Dolphins, you mentioned it with their defense good at causing turnovers. But the chief I mean, Mahomes doesn't throw picks really, so you'd really need something crazy and that I do see the snare where the Chiefs get up big and you're going to force two it to chase points and I just don't think that's gonna be pretty. But I again, I don't love it at over a touchdown just because again, as you said, the Chiefs don't really put people away.
How about the Bucks?
The Bucks game is the clearest. You know, they had seventeen points in the first quarter, then they can out score seventeen to seven the rest of the way, right, so you know that that that's my fear is that like they'll get up big and go, okay, we're done. It's like, uh, guys, you got three quarters left and yeah, keep going and then they just don't care. So that that's a problem and it could burn them in the playoffs. But but that's a problem right now in terms of focusing for four quarters.
Yeah, I'm with you, all right. What do you think about the Packers link seven and a half to the Lions in Detroit.
Hate the number. I would have bet it. I mean, I think, like I mentioned last week that you know, taking the Lions in a spot to go ahead and win because it's now three and oh for teams that after they fire their coach, they've won the next game outright. So we talked about it.
I said, look, somebody pointed that out on Twitter.
Way take a line. So I said, you know that this is just you know, forget about what's going on. They're gonna beat the Bears just simply because you know, they just fire Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn and then the fumble happens by you know, Mitchell Trubisky, which is you know, kind of like a redundant comment, but you know, go ahead, he just blow blows the game. And then so they go ahead and win it. And then there you go. So this is a classic letdown spot, right,
you win a game you're not supposed to. Now it's introom coach, this interroom coach that they all know they're out at the end of the year, and you're taking on Aaron Rodgers who's still very much and not just the MVP race but also trying to contend for playoff positioning here. Yep, I just don't like the hook.
Yep.
On the road seven and a half just seems to be a little bit too That's that's a little bit too much.
That's the exact analysis I have. I I like the Packers in this game. I think they're gonna win. The hook is the hook scares me too much because the.
Teaser game, This is teaser. This is par two team teaser written all over all over it.
I love the Teazers. I agree. Yeah, this is just something where once you're because you know you're gonna have Stafford will throw. There's not gonna be meany Kenny Gallay in this game. But they should have DeAndre Swift back. But regardless, they're gonna they're gonna find a way to put up points and keep it, you know, potentially from becoming a blowout. So I agree, over the heck, I don't like it. What about the Cowboys laying three and a half to the Bengals in Cincinnati.
I can't I can't pick either team. I can't trust either team. They both stink. Both absolutely atrocious football teams. And it's just okay, who is gonna be worse? Like who's who's gonna be the worst of the two, And both our teams have backup quarterbacks, both have defenses to give up big numbers, both have significant injuries you have to worry about. I mean, the Cowboys have a better receiving corps obviously, but I mean, I no, just absolutely, this is like my least favorite game of the week.
Yeah, it's gross, it's gross. And again I think we can assume that Ryan Finley is going to be the quarterback for the Bengals, in which case, you know, I feel like, do you know the movie The Princess Bride, Matt all right, So I feel like it's that scene where Vizzini is trying to figure out the wine, like which one has?
The character games? You know, the character names?
Oh Mad want to if you ever want to go on to the culture or movies, we'll talk about all they life.
I know the actor's name, I don't know the character's.
Name, and he can say he's saying, you know, but you would have known that I know this, So I clearly cannot choose the wine in front of me. That's how I feel when I analyze this game, like this is why I cannot choose the beangals. This is why I cannot choose the Cowboys, so complete stay away from me. I'm glad you feel the same, what do you? I'm actually interesting to see what you think about this next one. The Texans are laying one and a half to the Bears in Chicago.
See, there's a couple of things going on. One I don't like. If it was a Houston I would say a different story. It's outdoors in Chicago, so weather's a question there for me. Yeah, they don't run the football Texans do. You're throwing by crazy, So what happens if it's really cold and nasty? I haven't seen the weather yet, so but I can't. Again, this is another one of these teams with interim coaches. As we head towards the final four weeks, what are they playing for?
Right? Like?
What's the incentive for the Texans team to lay out for a receip to lay out and get his head taken off? What's the what's the incentive for a defensive lineman to go ahead and dive on a football or dive and make himself vulnerable. I just I don't know
what these teams are playing for. I mean, maybe Matt Nagy's gonna be fired, but we know this new coach coming in Houston, so that's I just I can't trust either one of these teams, although I do think if you're picking on quarterbacks, Houston's got the better quarterback clearly coaches, though the Bears slightly have the better coach, have the better coach. It's it's it's hard. If I had to pick a side, I probably would take the home team.
Yeah. I have been on both sides of this game to the extent I tried to pick a side, which I don't want to do because I just there are times you don't have to bet on every game. Everyone like you don't. You can you can take some some games off. I'm gonna be taking the Cowboys Bengals game off.
I'm probably gonna be taking this one because I've talked myself into both sides of this game, which is really more that I've talked myself out of the other side of this game, because it's just something where I don't trust either team. I don't trust either quarterback, so I'm not going any near it. If you had brought it up, I would have just said, Nope, I've got nothing on it. And if you can convince me, then you are better at this than I have last game, I believe. I
think we've touched everything else. The forty nine Ers laying three and a half to the Washington football team.
Isn't this Yeah? Isn't this the classic letdown spot for Washington? Isn't just? Isn't this just the five six, seven point loss to the forty nine ers. They just run the ball down the throat and get out of there with a win. I mean, it's just. I mean that was a super Bowl performance. Alex Smith at three hundred yards passing, he was on fire. In the second half, Chase Young came to life that goal line. Stan was gigantic to
play Chase Young made. They finally made a couple of big plays on Big Ben Late to intercept the football to win the football game. I mean, everything went right for them against the Steelers. I think it probably comes back. If I had to pick it, I'd say San Francisco. But I hate backup quarterbacks.
I don't like the hook three and a half. It's three now the consensus line. I'd be much more willing to take the forty nine if you give in it and it was three and you wanted the forty nine ers, I would take them because for all the reason this is like the this is like the you know you think about classic like you know, by low so high, I mean there is no what selling high. There is
no selling higher than what Washington just did. The forty nine Ers just got obliterated by the Bills on national television. So that's a spot where you buy them low. So I would take them, But over the hook, I don't like it. So all right, Matt, I think we've got it. I think we've got the five and that is the Rams laying five and a half points to the Patriots unless the Patriots cover that spread, in which case we
never picked it and you can't prove it. The Bucks laying six and a half to the Vikings, the Colts laying two and a half to the Raiders, the Steelers getting two and a half from the Bills, and the Ravens laying one and a half to the Browns.
So say that again, So Bucks minus six and a half.
Yeah, Bucks minus six and a half to the Vikes, right, the Colts minus two and a half to the Raiders, the Steelers getting two and a half from the Bills.
I was nervous that we were going all favorites.
No, we I know, I we really is. I mean, it's still too many favorites. But to be fair, like one of the favorites, the Ravens are laying.
One and a half.
That's not yeah, the Colts are laying two and a half, you.
Know, favorites. Yeah, so so we have we we have four dogs, four favorites, one dog, but really two dogs skill Ravens. So it's exactly, I'm fine.
Exactly yeah, works, yeah, and again, well we look where we're honest, we'll we'll let you know. If we changed one in this last one. I can't what did we change it too?
Man?
Other cults. We swapped in the Colts in this last one, and we took out the Chiefs, which was a good swap, a very good swap. And again that was a huge spread, which I just think we can't do with the Chiefs at this point anymore because they're not interested in all right, that is great. I will will tweet it out so when you'll know when we stopped recording this, because it's about to be a tweet that's going to come out that we're going to take this game but we are
going to take the rams. I hope it goes well. I hope the rest of our pics go well as always. Don't forget to tune in two Matt's Lives. Matt, what have we decided to do now with the props that we're gonna do?
Oh? Great point, Yeah, okay, so here's what we're gonna do. So your props are gonna be. We're gonna be my props.
Okay.
I'm gonna bet your props every week. Okay, so you're gonna give me five, I'm gonna bet it, and I'm gonna go ahead, and I'm going to tell everyone your props, which are becoming the Daily Juice live stream props every single week. So kind of combining our efforts here down the stretch, because you're doing all this great work to break down games and making projections. Normally you were giving two to three. But since I think you're on an eight and two run.
I think actually I might be eight and oh. I think I lost the two before that. I think the last three weeks, I may be wrong. I think it might be eight and oh over the.
Last that's possible. I think I was adding it up so very possible to eat in a row, and eight out of your last ten you've hit, so I think it's better. I've been going two and two or one and three pretty much every every Sunday, So I think it's better and smarter for the audience and better for the winning for the listeners to just take your props, make up my props, and go ahead and give them out on the live stream.
I think that's totally fine. And again my process, just so everybody knows, I do actually projections because I project for my fantasy rankings, and then usually what I will do when I have time is I will compare my projections to the available props in the market. Part of the reason why I haven't been great about it with Matt, poor Matt on live room is like, where are the props, dude, And I'm like, oh, sorry, busy, is because my process of refining my projections is like a four or five
hour process. Matt knows I'm almost always messaging him at like one am my time, two am on Saturday mornings, because that's what I do, That's how I need to do. I need to get all the available information. But we have been on a heater, so we will try to keep that going. We'll try to keep Matt's NFL betting going again. We're gonna take this through to the end of the year. Then we're going to figure out, you know, whatever we'll be doing with the playoffs. But thanks for
sticking with us. Hopefully we'll get back and closer to finishing into the money again. My name is Dan Harris, that's Matt Parole. It can find us on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady and that Sports Talk Matt. And for now, we will talk to you next week and the same time
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