Hey to everybody.
Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is week fourteen of the NFL season.
It's time to.
Talk about our best bets from a spread or money line or totals perspective. Here to do that with me is Pat Fitzmorris. Find them on Twitter at fits Underscore ff Fits.
How are you today?
I'm good, Dan? How are you?
I'm doing all right? We have both locked our dogs in another room far away. That's one of our favorite things to do when we podcast together, which is fairly often, which is to make sure that the dogs cannot get in and ruin our entire podcasts.
Are you are you? You feel comfortable?
We've got a good half hour forty five minutes here where you can survive.
By lock far away? You mean sleeping next to me? Right? Oh? No, much so? All right, that's okay.
I've got an emergency bone at the ready in case I need it. If he wakes up and wants to annoy me. That would buy us enough time, I think to finish the show.
Very good.
Well, I was lucky enough for my dog to write before we start recording, see the neighborhood, Bobcat and run downstairs barking up crazy. And then I just locked the door behind it. So we should be good here. But if you hear some scratching, that is that is him trying to get in. All right, let's get into it, Pat, This is gonna be a good show for us, as people will find out shortly, because I know you and I think very similarly on a lot of things, and it does look like we may be on the opposite
side of a couple of things today. But before we do, let's talk about a couple of housekeeping items.
Here.
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and Wyoming. All right, quick recap up last week. It was not a good week for this podcast, pat So. And it's been a little bit stagnant lately, myself, our guests. Frankly, it hasn't been you know, we haven't been blowing the doors off here. So Ian McMillan, who is having one of the great betting seasons of all time. He bets every single NFL game. He's up something like twenty five units on the season. Like he's doing great. He went out for three, He missed on the Bears, getting eight
from the Cardinals. The Raiders lank two and a half to Washington, and the Ravens and the Steelers over forty four. I went one and two. I missed on the Vikings laying seven to the Lions, which was not close. The second Adamsdally got injured, I realized, like, this is not going to end well. Regardless. I also missed on the Bills lank three to the Patriots. The one I hit on was the Chargers getting three from the Bengals, which was my favorite of the weekend. That's nineteen and twenty
on the year. That's obnoxious after a good start. So Pat, we have to get back on track here. I know, Pat, that we are not going to go six and oh on our six favorite bets here, as you and I may have discussed before we started recording. We can start there, or we can start wherever.
You want. Give me a bet that you're looking at this weekend.
Well, Dan, and I'm surprised this was not the one that we agreed on necessarily because I know all about your blind loyalty to the New York Jets, your willingness to overlook their myriad deficiencies.
None of this is true whatsoever, but go ahead.
So I was kind of surprised you did not like them catching five and a half points at home against the Saints, who have lost five straights and have Taysom Hill at quarterback. Who yeah, I mean he was Harry Houdini with the rushing against the Cowboys.
A fat lot of.
Good it did them in that game. In his last appearance. I mean, he's just a terrible passer and has since. You know, now he's got this finger issue, So like, what is that going to look like? I know the Jets defense is bad, but I don't think Taysom Hill is capable of capitalizing on that. And the Jets have averaged twenty two point eight points a game since Week eight. This is actually a functional offense, and like Elijah Moore has added a lot of spark here, Like I love
the five and a half points. I mean, I'm gonna lock in the safe five and a half, but I'm probably gonna put a little something on the money too. I Mean, the Saints team is like they're done. They know they're not playoff bound. So it's not like you are going to get this spunky, fighting for their life Saints team, like they know they're not going to make the playoffs.
Why well all that, why do you say five and seven? I mean we're gonna talk. Oh you know what I've had, I should have talked about the Vikings tonight. I'm sorry, you're right, because I know we had talked about that earlier. I'll tell you what, we'll talk about that at the end of the show. We'll talk about the game because people will have probably seen that game already by the time they listen to this anyway, But we talked about the Vikings at five and seven, like they're still in
the playoffs. You never know it's the seventh spot, man, I mean, the Saints are still there.
I guess, man, But five straight Dan with Taysom Hill at quarterback, I mean, they just they don't have a quarterback who can win out. They need to win out, and they're just not gonna do it with what they have on offense right now.
All right, Well, I will say this. I'll point a couple of things out, just so you know. This has nothing to do with why I'm not taking the but I will point out Elijah Moore is battling the quad injury like that popped up on the practice report, which and it didn't sound like Robert Solid didn't come out and been like this is nothing, it's maintenance, We're going to take it easy. It was something where he was like, yeah, we'll see about it. So I'm at least a little
cautious there. Tevin Coleman, also dealing with the concussion, may not play, and I know it's Tevin Coleman. It's not like that makes a huge difference, but they are dealing with some injuries. Keeling cole By the way, just as we were sitting down the record placed on the COVID nineteen list, I don't know the details of that. Again, not that that matters that much, right, It's not like
these guys are doing it pad. I just like I can see a scenario with Alvin Kamara back in this game, which he's supposed to be that I won't say a Patriots esque game plan here, but they can just go out there and run the ball non stop whatsoever. And if you have, let's say, the one thing the Saints do really well on defense is stop the run. And if the Jets can't run the ball at all, and you're looking at it has to be Zach Wilson to put up points here with the inability to move the
ball on the ground, that just makes me worried. Man, I don't like the Saints. I'm not taking the Saints on the road laying the weird dead number of five and a half. But it's a game that I looked at and I just went, ugh, this is a game I want to run away from. Uh So that's really why that's where my hesitation comes from.
Understandable, Yeah, I'm just.
I agree that the Saints defense is pretty good and the running game could be an issue, although I think even if Tevin Coleman isn't able to go, I think they would be able to squeeze enough out of ty Tyd Johnson. And there who's the mischievous Walter Austin Walter.
I forgot about his name.
Yeah, so should I mean should we like the under here at forty two and a half?
Too?
It was under consideration for me, Pat for sure. I my, you know, if they're ever a defensive score, I could see happening here. But yeah, I mean, look, why would you throw the ball if you're the Saints in this game? I mean, the Jets cannot stop the run. You have your best playmaker obviously on offense is Alvin Kamara, and you've got a quarterback who's got mallet finger and by the way, doesn't even have the Deontay Harris, right, like, let me have a slant and take it seventy yards
to the house. It does strike me as the under is the right play when it's a total that low, and I'm about to take an over under also on the under, also with a total that's close to that low. But it gives me sort of concerns. But I do like the under better than the side in this one. You like the under as well if you had to go one way.
Yeah, I like the under two, but I would take the side first.
Okay, all right, I'm staying away from the side, And again I want to make it clear I'm not against you in this one. We'll get to one where I'm against you, Pat, but I'm not against you on this one.
And you know it's got to be. I've got to feel really.
Strong if I'm going to back the Jets, and I certainly don't hear so you know if actually I don't even have a if I had to go way, I would go this way. If I had to go one way, I would you root for the asteroid and jump out the window and do something else. I'm gonna start with the total, Pat, And then I was thinking maybe I'll start with the game that I know we're on different sides.
I'll start with the total, though, since we talked about a low total, I will give an equally low total here the Panthers and the Falcons, Pat and I'm going under forty two and a half. Carolina fired Joe Brady and the stated reason was he doesn't run enough, Like he is not running the ball enough. So I don't know what the over under is on rush attempts here between Cam and Chuba Hubbard and you want to get a mirror of Dullah involved in there, but it's got
to be like thirty five or something like that. Like they're just gonna run the ball the entire time, is what I guess, especially Pat after we saw Cam, who's going to start in this game. I know he's not confirmed, but he's gonna start. Go five for twenty one in their most recent game. Like the passing game isn't really working, so I don't expect them to attempt too many passes. And again, a lot of running attempts that bleeds the clock. That's kind of what we're saying here with this Jets game.
And the Falcons are bad defend for sure. Uh there's the dog areas. Don't worry about it. Pat, you're very concerned about the dog barking. I promise you it's not a big deal.
Whatever. I will not let my crazy man in. But anyway, I.
Don't worry about it because I do know you are concerned about the dog barking, So don't worry about.
What's her anyway.
So the Falcons are bad defensively, but they are worse against the pass than they are against the run. Like that's just the way it is, and I think that's part of why they get beaten so badly.
So I think with running it.
Like the scoring, I don't think that the Panthers will be able to just run down the field every single drive and score necessarily, especially without Christian McCaffrey. But I do think that they'll have long, sustained drives and that'll bleed the clock a little bit. And on defense, the Panthers get a lot of pressure that is bad for Matt Ryan. You've got probably gilmour can just stick on Kyle Pitts and take him out of the game, like pretty much every team has been doing of late, and
then they focus everything else. I just getting pressure on Matt Ryan and taking away Cordero Patterson and then the Falcons are out of luck on offense. Ryan was not great against them in the first game. Now you're on the road in a second division game, which I feel like the teams know each other already at this point.
They usually feels like it leads itself to a little you know, scoring loll Here again, they're both five and seven, Like, realistically they're both out of the playoff hunt, but they're also still in the playoff hunt. Carolina needs a win and they're all in right. I mean, they went for Gilmour like they went for it this year even if they shouldn't have, so they need to win here. I think the defense plays really well, holds Atlanta down, and I think with all the running that this is going
to be like a really low scoring game here. It strikes me as like a like a twenty thirteen type of game here, So I will go the under even though it's low here at forty two and a half.
Yeah, I'm probably going to piggyback you on that one. We saw the first game Carolina one, nineteen thirteen when they met earlier. We have not seen any appreciable improvements in either offense since then. I hate everything about the
Falcons offense except Cordero Patterson pretty much. You know, we have talked about this on our Sunday Recap pod, where we have seen instances where Matt Ryan drops back to pass, gets like four seconds of protection, scans the field, still cannot find an open receiver and like eventually takes a sack. So yeah, like Cam is just like, we've got some really bad passers playing quarterback in the NFL this week.
I got some really.
Non functional passing games, and I think we're looking at one with Carolina too. So as you said, it's probably going to be a thirty five running rushing attempt game for Carolina that's going to speed up the game. This is one of those that could be over at like two fifty five Central time.
I think, yes, So.
I'm with you here. I think this one plays under. I was kind of surprised to see it as high as it was.
What game ends first, Pat Saint Chetz or Falcons father.
Yeah, that's boy.
That is going to be a sprint to two sprinters going at it like Ussein Bolts trying to get under the four pm Eastern wire.
I want.
I want our books to start making. That is something we can bet on which game end ends.
First, fun weekly prop, wouldn't it.
Yeah, Like we'll start our own sports book. We'll get that going, all right, So that's my first pick.
Go for number two. Whatever you want.
What do you got since we're on the Undersdan, how about Jacksonville Tennessee under forty three and a half. I mean Jacksonville has scored ten point seven points a game in their last six just a completely dysfunctional passing game.
We know that.
And now the running game. You know, Urban Meyer choosing to punish James Robinson for you know, a fumble where he's slammed to the ground by Aaron Donald and then like Carlos side lose is a much worse fumble. I think it was like four series or three series after that fumble that James Robinson didn't play and Hide has a softer fumble and then plays the very next series.
But never mind that.
So we know the Jacksonville offense is gonna struggle to put up like even seventeen points, and the Tennessee offense, since Dereck Henry got hurt. They that surprisingly good performance against the Rams where they won twenty eight to sixteen, then twenty three to twenty one against the Saints, but since then they lost what twenty two to thirteen to Houston and last week thirty six or two weeks ago
thirty six thirteen to New England. You know, tougher matchup, but we still don't know if Julio Jones is going to play, and this is a barely functional passing game. Even if he does play, I think we've got the amalgam of running backs they have, like it's it's not an offense.
To be feared.
I'm not too worried about like the Titan Titans putting up thirty in this game to push it over single handedly. So I mean, I think you get a real good percentage play with the under here. Not saying it's foolproof, but you know, I feel like you're seventy percent this plays under.
Certainly none of the bets that anybody gives out as full proof, But yes, I agree with you here because I do think that certainly the Titans offense since all the injuries, has been pretty stagnant and understandably so, it's never been an explosive offense. You've just had the best running back you know playing in the game right now, dominating and that allowing you know, Ryan Tannehill to be
the most efficient quarterback in the NFL. So with this, even if Julio Jones plays, like, this is not a Titans team that is going to basically go out there and put up a million points unless I get some sort of defensive score, because that's just not what they want to do, especially in the game that they are favored to win by eight and a half or nine depending on the book. That they don't need to push it,
they don't need to take chances. And you mentioned, you know, the game against the Rams, there's a defensive score, like their points come from defense, right, It's not like their offense has ever lit it up since they've had all the injuries. And Julio Jones, like if he plays, if he doesn't play, I love Julio Jones, pat, but it's not like AJ Brown isn't there, and even when he was, it's not like they were really doing all that much anyway.
So I am with you here. I think both teams struggled to score.
So man, unders huh, that's what we're doing in this game in this podcast, right, now, huh can make one other.
Just the Tennessee's run defense is really good. And if you're forcing Jacksonville to be one dimensional and lean on the pass, right, boy, I mean, that's going to damage their chances. And uh, you know, the Jacksonville defense is not a complete pushover either.
Correct.
That was actually the next one I want to make, which is I think we think of the Jacksonville because I think sometimes you think of teams being terrible and you assume that every part of the team is terrible, and the overall defense for Jacksonville is not. And so that's going to probably lend itself to a game that's going to be relatively low scoring. So I really hadn't even thought about this one very much, Pat until you brought it up.
But I do like it.
Now I'll try it on it. But let look, I have two picks left. Okay, one of them I feel a little less confident in, and I've sort of been debating when I was thinking about the third pick. One of them I like a lot, and it is the one Pat, which we are on opposite side. So we talked about I kept waiting for you to bring it up. You were waiting for me to bring it up. I'll start then, and it is the forty nine ers that are visiting the Bengals, And right now the forty nine
ers are laying a point. When I looked at it with Joe and I said, I loved it. Then it was the forty nine ers getting a point. So there's probably been a little money. Not that it doesn't matter to me, like giving a point, getting a point really doesn't matter if you cross hear at that point. But I do like the forty nine ers. You'll be on the other side for one of your picks. And we talked about that whether or not that made sense, and I said, you and I are known to agree on many things.
Let's disagree.
I'll make my case first, Pat, that's good with you, and then you can counter.
Good, absolutely wonderful, all right. So this is the one I really do like right now.
And I know there are some people out there who like to fade me, which is great, And in this case you've got an extra reason because you've got Pat going on the other side. So I continue to fade the Bengals Pat generally as the team I think they've been overrated. That does not always work out. It does sometimes like last week with the Chargers. Certainly the forty nine Ers are a better team crew you know, not a crude metric, but the most basic metric, again is
just total DVOA. The forty nine Ers are seventh, the Bengals are nineteen. The forty nine Ers are a better team than the Cincinnati Bengals. I have no doubt that you look away to DVA that's more recent games, the forty nine Ers are actually fifth and the Bengals are twentieth. Since the forty nine Ers basically stopped with the they haven't had the opportunity really with because of Trey Lance's injury.
But since they stopped the gimmicky stuff with giving Trey Lance and splinting bots and Kyle Shannon came out and talked about how that wasn't really working for them, the offense has just been a lot better. They've got a really good offensive line, They've got an incredible blocking tight end in George Kittle. They're EPA offensively. The forty nine Ers are ninth and the Bengals are twentieth and EPA per play. Since Week ten, the forty nine Ers are fourth,
so they're really rolling here. Offensively. Both teams have injuries here, Pat like, we can't discount that on either side. But I actually think that the angles injuries are more significant right now than the forty nine ers, and that is one of the reasons why I lean this way. So Deevo Samuel Patt, I'm thinking, honestly he might. Then there's optimism from Kyle Shannan. I'm expecting Devo to not play in this game. I would love it if Elijah Mitchell
is able to suit up. I will be fine with this even if Elijah Mitchell does not suit up, whether or not it's Jamichael Hasty or Jeff Wilson's able to come back. We know Emmanuel Moseley's already out in that secondary. Fred Warner though, is back and practicing in full.
That's big.
But the injuries for the Bengals Pat the finger injury for Burrow, and really that's kind of like the critical point for me, Like that was an ugly injury. He did not look good throwing the ball after that.
We have seen what these finger injuries do.
I know it's the pinky, so it's a little different than Wilson, but we've seen what these finger injuries do. It's not as if like he's out there in practice like I'm totally fine.
I'm totally fine.
He's like I can play through it and stuff like that. So I think that is going to affect the way the Bengals are offensively. Not to mention T Higgins dealing with an ankle injury, which happened at the very end of that game. I didn't really realize it, but he hasn't practic yet, and defensively two pat for the Bengals. You know, a Woozia he might be out in this game. That's a big loss for them. He might play, but we already know Logan Wilson is out. That's a big loss.
They are coming east, Pat, and I know I never love West Coast teams coming east, but the four to twenty five game makes it a little more palatable to me because it doesn't mess with their internal clocks. I think the forty nine ers win this game, Pat, and you know, the injury, especially the Burrow, makes me feel even better about it.
That is my case. That is why one of my.
Picks is San Francisco giving one now to the Bengals in Cincinnati.
Yeah, so initially this started as San Francisco with a one point correct.
They were, they were getting a point correct, they were getting a point. Now they're a one point favorite.
Yeah, so wait, I'm sorry. Who was initially the favorite?
The Bengals were initially the favorite. It is now enough to San Francisco being the favorite. San Francisco I assume, I really, I I have to believe Pat, that that's that's injury related.
I have to believe it because I.
Think Burrow's comments not that he's gonna play. Burrow's tough guy.
We've seen it. He's gonna play.
But I think his comments have been less than like, oh man, I'm good, let's go.
I feel great. It's more like I'm gonna be I'm gonna manage it, I'm gonna play through it.
And I'm like, my guess is that's why the money came in. But again, to me, Pat, it doesn't really matter one on on either side. Crossing zero doesn't matter that much to me, but go ahead.
Sorry.
No, he has said that it hurts like hell, and he saw him like those those practice throws on the sideline where he was just like an excruciating pain. So yeah, that is Admittedly, that is a big wild card that I maybe.
I am not accounting for enough.
You know, we've seen this, this Bengals team drill some of their divisional rivals and not bad teams either, but they have been schizophrenic. Yes, that game against the Chargers last week a really tough loss for them, but they fought pretty hard to stay in a game that was looking.
Like it was going to be a blowout.
I just think this is a good enough team to do something about a bad home loss and bounce back against a team coming east, Yes, the West Coast coming into the Eastern time thing. I'd feel much stronger about that, of course, if it was an early start.
Although that old betting.
Axiom has not exactly, you know, been one hundred percent by any means this year. But you know, I do like the good team coming off a bad loss. That that's kind of one thing I'm leaning on here. And I don't think the Bengals are going to lose too
straight at home to West Coast teams. So and I think they've got the better quarterback here Dan, Like I mean, even if Burrow is completely incapacitated and we see him sailing throws, like, I'll pay my money and know that I made the wrong bats, but you know, Jimmy makes like two or three just like bad mistakes every game.
I don't think he's a terrible quarterback.
But like he's going to give you some turnover opportunities like every game. It happens every game, and I feel like if the Bengals can capitalize on that get a turnover to I really like their chances here.
So I think the only thing I'll say is the good team coming off a bad loss goes both ways, right, because the forty nine ers right coming off that loss, I mean that honestly, neutral field, everyone healthy, who's the better team?
Do you think in your mind forty nine Ers are the Bengals?
I mean, to me, it's still really close.
Dan, Like, I have a greater belief in this Bengals team maybe than I should, But you know, I like there was a point early in the season where I thought they could be a legitimate AFC Championship contender. I'm not sure if I still believe that now, like they've there have been some some leaks exposed, I think, but I still think it's a pretty good team.
Yeah, well, I mean again, and there's you know, for me, it's been personally something where I have just been avoiding them, and again it has not always worked out.
I faded them and they have romped at times.
But I do think that especially with the injuries, I liked it before, Pat, I love it really now.
Like even if Burrow's like, I'm good.
And he looks gonna warm up, I mean, you know, he takes a hit or something on the hand a little bit like just makes me too worried with it.
But this is good.
I think it's good that we're on different sides, and I know we'll have six bets, but it'll be different. And the one thing I will say to our audience, by the way, is because Pat and I talk all the time, obviously.
We feel when we get a pick wrong.
Like we were taxing Pat on Thanksgiving because you were on before Thanksgiving and you had the total four the Dallas uh Las Vegas game wrong and you were upset and you thought you had gotten the Detroit Chicago game wrong because you would bet the money line yourself on a personal play, but you had actually taken Detroit with the spread. But I remember how bad you felt about it, and I always feel the.
Same way too.
I hope everybody understands that, like when we give out picks, like we want you guys to.
Be able to be profitable. So I thinks, so one of us.
Pat is going to be really good at you know, right before we do our fantasy show on the recap, one of us is going to be in a bad mood.
So oh yeah, there's not going to be any trash talking about that whatsoever.
We'll be fine.
Can I add one more thing about that game, just one less points to make. I mean with the unit versus unit matchups. One I forgot the pinpoint was just the Bengals receivers against this forty nine or secondary. Yeah, if the forty nine ers have a glaring achilles heel, it is their secondary. And just you know that they
don't have very many capable cornerbacks. And you know, if we get a healthy enough t Higgins, the Bengals can deploy three very good wide receivers against a pretty terrible group of cornerbacks.
But you know, again that all comes back.
To Burrow's ability to deliver tight FROs and you know overcome that finger injury. So yes, yeah, that is the Burrow finger could definitely torpedo this one for me and you know, have you grinning ear to hear on Sunday night day?
It's very rare, Pat, but I'm a happy man on Sunday night. But let's hope for this time, and I certainly will not rub it in as I hope you don't if you are correct as well. My last pick, Pat, I don't know how you're gonna feel about this one, and I've kind of agonized that it because this is one Pat where I had an initial instinct when I saw the line and I talked about it on Monday, and then as I dug into it, I didn't feel
quite as great about it. But I don't love that many games this week, So I'm gonna stick with my initial instinct here and I am going to take the Ravens visit in Cleveland and right now getting two and a half. But the one thing I will say is there is there are threes out there, and my book at Drackings, for example, is that a three. So I would not bet this right now if you are a Ravens backer like I am, and if the and if the consensus moves to three, that's going to be my official play.
And if it moves down That'll be my.
Official play wherever it closes closer on Saturday night, because I do think that this might get to three here, because I think there are a lot of things a favorite Cleveland, like they're off a bye, the Ravens are absolutely decimated by injury, of course.
I mean, that's that's why Harbaugh said that they.
Went for two, because they didn't have anybody who could stop the pass anymore. They are coming off of a brutal game here. Lamar Jackson has not looked good, and I don't I don't ever remember this, pat. I don't remember that often where you get a team that plays an opposing team, then gets a bye, then plays that same team like we've got here with Cleveland, where it's basically you've had three weeks to dedicate yourself to Baltimore. That's tough for Baltimore for sure, because this is all
they've had in their head. But I just have no faith in Cleveland right now. And I think Baker Mayfield, this is a week off does not cure Baker Mayfield. Right Like Mayfield, you seem every game pad he looks like he's about to just basically walk off. And the injuries to the Ravens, especially in their quarterback. We lost
Marlon Humphrey. That's not that big a deal necessarily with a team like Cleveland who doesn't really have that wide receiver that threatens you right now, right I mean Donovan People's Jonans, Travis Landry and the guy who's gonna, you know, go deep. He'll get his catches like he did in the first game, but still not a guy who really threatens you. They want to run the ball. That's all they really want to do. That's the Ravens strength. Their
fifth in defensive DVOA against the run. The Ravens are well coached, as we know. I think Harbaugh will be able to sort of get them through. They sort of match up well in what they do. Like the Ravens red zone defense is really good. Cleveland's red zone offense kind of stinks, and I know that the offense has
really been struggling badly. And Lamar Jackson doesn't look good, but I'm hoping this is a little bit of the illness that he's been dealing with, and as he gets further apart away from that, he'll look back closer to what he looked like earlier in the season and Cleveland plays a lot of his own that usually you know, plays into what Lamar strings are. So again, it's a divisional games, it's usually close, especially with the second one. They just played a game where Lamar Jackson threw four
picks and the Ravens still won the game. Like, I don't know, man, I think the Ravens are coming out of here with a win that they need despite how banged up they are.
I think they're just a better team.
But I am interested to hear your thoughts because it is one where I've debated kind of all week.
Yeah, this is one I'm probably not gonna be touching.
And we've talked about my strange pool to bet the Ravens in every single week and play it out as a league. And I'm on a two game winning streak to get back to six and six, all right, I tentatively have taken the Browns in this just because.
And the angle that I hooked onto was.
The weird scheduling quirk that the Browns have just stewed on this game during their bye week and you know, had all this extra time to watch film, and you know, it's a pretty competent coaching staff.
I think on the Cleveland side.
So you mentioned the Marlin Humphrey injury again, I think this is like one of the few teams that's not going to be able to really capitalize on that very much. Just not a strong group of receivers, not a good quarterback. Yeah, Ravens under twenty points in three straights, the Browns thirty total points in their last three. This just could be
an absolute rock fight. And you know, I think the reason I'm going to be laying off in a game that, you know, could be this low scoring and weird, Like, I just think some sort of weird play a turnover, a fumble return for a touchdown could like totally swing it. A special teams play, you know. I just like, I'm not going to feel good about whichever side I take in this one, So I'm kind of just staying away.
Maybe we should have made this another underplay for us here at forty three given the offensive struggles, Right, maybe you go.
Forty I saw forty four on DraftKings this morning.
All right, hold on, I'm checking it out. No draftings down to forty three.
It is done forty three, as is.
A pretty much every book. Actually, there's a lot of forty two's and there's forty two and a half's out there. So if you want the under go now, I guess get it.
I can understand why it's dropping.
Yeah, absolutely, everybody listens to you, Pat, So that's right. Yeah, it's going to continue to drop. I don't hate the under in that one too, but I just don't know how many unders I can stomach in one week of football. So all right, So that's going to be our six plays, and you know it's technically five because it really depends on which way you want to go here on that
Bengals forty nine Ers game. But Pat, you are taking the Jaguars and the Titans under forty three and a half, the Jets getting five and a half from the Saints, and the Bengals getting one from the forty nine ers. I'm on the other side of that one. I'm getting the forty nine Ers laying one point to the Bengals, the Panthers and the Falcons under forty two and a half, and the Ravens getting two and a half from the Browns. Let's quickly run through the remaining spreads pack if that
works for you, Yes, sir, start with tonight. Everybody's gonna know already, So you're either gonna have a ton of credibility or everybody's gonna be like, I'm fading whatever that dude is doing. It's now the consensus line pad other than our book of DraftKings, which is still at three. The consensus line is now three and a half here with the Vikings laying three and a half points in this game.
I'm not sure which I like more getting that hook on the field goal or getting even money to get points with the Steelers against Kirk Cousins in a primetime game. I've already read the script for how this game turns out. Dan Kirk Cousins doesn't play well and the Vikings lose.
So what, yes, exactly?
I mean, like Kirk, He's played so consistently poorly in primetime games, and like it is in the point at the point where I think that is a thing. You just wonder if as many tight games as the Vikings have played, like if they didn't hit the tipping point with the loss to Detroit, if they aren't just ready to pack it in, and you know, in a game where some of the coaching was just you know, I know, my friends up in Minnesota were totally up in arms over just some of the play.
Calling last week.
So and we've talked about the Steelers in desperation mode, how that is normally a pretty good time to get them. Yes, they did sort of stave off elimination last week. You know, maybe that was their desperation mode game. Can they have
two of the desperation mode games in a row. But this one is a big one for them, Like they need this one too, And I you know, kind of like them getting the points here against just you know, squirrely Minnesota team with the Cousins factor and Cousins without his Adam Feelin's security blanket.
Yeah, that's a big thing.
That's a big thing.
Now, Dalvin Cook made play apparently as we were talking about earlier, which is surprising to me. But I can't imagine he's going to be at one hundred percent if he does go at this point.
I think that doesn't really move the needle for you, does it?
No, not at all, And because Alexander Madison's are perfectly capable back anyway. And I wouldn't expect Alvin Cook to be at full strength regardless of if he plays. I have not I full disc like I've not bet a side on this. I do have a prop bet on kJ Osbourne over forty one and a half receiving yards.
But I think the loss of Deeling is big.
Obviously ten of his twenty five touchdowns there, I mean, Cousins played well this year, twenty five touchdowns, three picks. Like I actually didn't even fully realize that until I was looking up that sid. I was like, Wow, that's fascinating. But we've seen the script and this is the normal spot where you would back the Steelers, which is the road underdog in a game they need to win with their backs against the wall. Mike Tomlin gets them up for those games. Man.
But it's probably something I'll stay away from.
But are you on officially the Steelers getting It's not gonna be one of your bets, Pat, don't worry, You're not laying it out.
But Steelers getting three and a half from the Vikings? Are you betting that?
I have put my own hard earned money on it already, Dan, And isn't it fun to know that? Right now listeners are laughing at us because Kirk Cousin through for three hundred yards and three touchdowns. Dalvin Cook ran for one hundred and fifty and another touchdown, and you know everyone's just calling us idiots right now.
Yeah, that's fine. They do.
They do that for me anyway, so we're all good. How about the Raiders visiting the Chiefs. This is one that I kind of like when I first looked at it. Pat on Monday, the Chiefs are laying nine and a half at home. What do you think.
Generally, I've been disappointed when taking the Chiefs laying a lot of points. I'm starting to feel a little better about it. Not necessarily the offense, but their defense is very quietly held five straight opponents to seventeen or fewer points. Like the Chiefs defenses. You know, after being a laughing stock the first five or six weeks of the season, totally turn things around. The offense hasn't turned things around. I mean, they look terrible again against Denver last week.
But yeah, I don't know.
Las Vegas has scored sixteen points or fewer in four of their last five, the one exception being that thirty six point outburst against Dallas on Thanksgiving, and I just don't think they're going to be able to put up enough points against the Chiefs. And you figure the Chiefs have got a breakout at home one of these times. It just seems like they're kind of due for the explosion.
They beat the Raiders forty one to fourteen the last time they played in Vegas, so I kind of do like the Chiefs here laying the big points.
For me.
I look more towards the total at this one, and I kind of feel like I liked it when it opened. I think it was forty nine or forty nine and a half. It sounds forty eight because I do think that the Chiefs have not gone crazy on offensive late. Their defense is, as you said, playing exceptionally well. The
Raiders are not putting up a ton of points. The strikes a game the Chiefs probably win pretty easily, is my guest, although I'm not sure I'm willing to lay the nine and a half, but it strikes me as a game that's again something that is not a shootout or anything like that, and I think it leans towards the under at forty eight. I don't love it as much as I did it forty nine and a half, but I did take it there, so you know, it's probably mostly a stay away.
From me at this point.
But if anything, I leaned the under Titans. We talked about the total, Papa, what about the spread eight and a half now is higher when it opened here, but it's eight and a half now as we sit here.
Will not touch this one.
I just don't feel good enough about the Titans covering a big spread. Yeah, they're just they just haven't been quite good enough lately. I mean, if you forced me to play this one, I'd probably give the Jaguars the points and take the Titans.
But yeah, I'm just laying.
Off completely agree. If I had to go one way, I'd probably go to the Jaguars. But I don't want to touch it whatsoever, Nor do I want to really go near the Seahawks laying eight and a half to the Texans. I will say this bad and maybe this was done when a were seven and a half at open. I teased them down. I included them the teaser, and I tease them down to one and a half because I do think they're going to win this game any game where Again, we talked about all these teams are still in.
The playoff hunt.
You know, at four and eight they go to five and eight, who knows, you know, the Texans barely put up a fight anymore.
I don't feel confident that they'll cover the eight and a half points spread, but I think they'll win.
So I did tease them down when it was seven and a half to one and a half. But that's about the only lean I have on this game.
Yeah, I mean, the Seattle defense is not the joke that I thought it might be this season. They've actually been decent at times, and you know, I don't think the loss of Jamal Adams really hurts that much. So I tend to feel the same way like their past defense has been capable enough that I'm not too worried about Davis Mills right having any sort of uprising against them. You know, I do think they were going to win, but I just hate.
That spread too much. I hate it.
Yeah, you can't take the Seattle on lay more than a touchdown.
It's just no. Never can.
How about the pat We talked about the Tuttle Panthers at home. They're laying the two and a half here to the Falcons. Now it's juice towards the Panthers. It's minus one eighteen. It's even at two and a half here for the Falcons if you take them getting the points.
So what do you think?
Yeah, kind of another game. I hate and don't like taking a side on this. I just don't know what to expect out of Cam Newton.
This game is the main problem.
If I was confident enough that he was going to be able to generate offense purely with his legs, I mean, he was just so bad passing the last time we saw him, Like it just scares me off the Panthers. Another game where it forced you, I would probably take Carolina, But I just don't really feel good about either side here.
Yeah, did oh.
I would definitely take Carolina if I'm forced to go one way or another, because again, I do see them just saying like, all right, we're just gonna run the ball NonStop. We're not going to allow Camp to hurt us and their defense being able to hold down the Falcons. So I lean the Panthers at under Afield goal. But I'm not putting my money on Cam Newton in that sense, other than I'm putting my money on Cam Newton to not be able to put up a ton of points.
That's where I'm going with that.
The Washington football team is getting now four and a half.
It was four and open.
It's still four to a couple of books, including at bet MGM. DraftKings for US pat is at four and a half. Here Washington hosting Dallas.
So everything about this game wants like I almost wanted to put Washington as the best bat almost. They've rattled off four straight wins. One of them was against the Buccaneers, like the number one DVOA team at Carolina at Las Vegas. So a couple of decent road wins beat Seattle. This team's playing really well. But here's the thing that kind of worries me d In Like, I know Montes Sweat by the metrics, like hasn't been having the best of seasons.
They've already lost Chase Young, one of their primary edge rush. Well, you know they've got the two book end edge rushes, Young and Montest Sweat together, that's a pretty good duo. They lost one, now they've gotten either. I mean this it reminds me of Monty Python and the Holy Grail. You know when King Arthur meets the Black Knight and turns to cross across the bridge and they have the sword fight, Like he cuts off one of the Black Knights.
Yeah, the Black Knight.
Just keeps fighting with the sword hand, you know, but now they've cut off the other arm Montes Sweat is the second arm YEP.
And if you can't get a pass rush, like I know that.
The Washington has been very good at generating pressure from the inside, but without any pressure from the outside, and this Dallas team, Dak Prescott and these receivers being able to pick away at a very vulnerable football team secondary, Like, I just don't feel good enough about Washington's ability to play decent enough defense to cover this spread. So I'm laying off it. I mean, I really want to take the football team here, Dan, but I just can't.
I'm in total agreement with basically everything that you said, which is, I look at this, I think Joe like the Cowboys.
When we looked at it early.
Everything says to me that Washington keeps this game close. They're playing really well, but at some point, at some point, like they're just not going to be able to lose Chase Young and Sweat and continue to basically put up these defensive performances. I don't know how their defense has been playing so well, so it's a stay. I'm still not taking Dallas like you right, it's just to stay away for me at this point.
Is this one of the rare overs we might look at Dan?
What do you have? The total?
Forty eight?
So, I mean, I love that Washington has found this new offensive identity when yeah, Tonio Gibson coming back to life and you know that making Taylor Heineke potentially more effective. And now they've Curtis Samuel back. He's been playing limited snaps, but it's another day jewish weapon who can rip off a chunk play possibly if they get the ball.
In his hands. So I kind of like the over here at forty eight.
Yeah, I'm staying away from that.
I your points make sense, but I Washington seems like a team that is committed to taking two minutes to get every first down and getting you know, six first downs every drive in these like we're gonna gain twelve yards every single like like that's just what we're gonna do and just we're gonna keep it going. So I don't lean under, but I'm not willing to go for my first over of the week that with that one. But you you take it, you'd be brave for me.
Broncos are at home link ten to the Lions. I feel like this might have been eight and a half earlier in the week of Memory Serves, and I kind of like the Broncos there. I don't want to fait the Lions again, but it's certainly if there's a letdown spot for a one ten and one team, this would be it and the Broncos fighting for their lives at home. But at ten, it just it seems a little too rich for me to go either way.
Yeah, Teddy Bridgewater has just looked so shaky lately, even though there's some maybe get right spots for him in this matchup. Like I know, Detroit's had all sorts of trouble with slot receivers, and I think Jerry Judy could feast in this matchup.
If Javonte Williams gets more work.
I mean, we saw what he did to Kansas City, and you know against Detroit that's had a lot of problems with running backs. And yes, maybe Detroit is fat and happy Dan after that first loss.
There was one ten in one.
Now you know, who.
Could blame them for being fat and happy? But ten points for this Denver team is just too much. There's just not been enough Denver offense for us to feel good about.
That, I agree with you, Chargers are at home laying ten against the Giants sounds like Mike Lennon. There's optimism about Mike Glennon being able to clear congussion protocol and not try that really matters to you, Pat, But ten points here with.
The charters, Yeah, I mean Mike Glennon or Jake from is really a drop off there.
Ye.
You know, this was one I actually considered as a best bet for the Chargers, and I might have done it if not for the COVID status of their wide receivers. And maybe it won't matter if Jalen Geiton and Josh Palmer are decent backup options, I guess, And you know they've got a trio of tight ends, and.
Yeah, it's possible Williams plays.
Though it's Yeah. Has Alan been rolled out?
He actually hasn't. He actually hasn't.
But I think he tested positive, and I think it's almost not impossible entirely given the protocols. But I don't think anybody who has tested positive on the day that he tested positive has been able to make it back for that week's game yet.
So he hasn't been rolled out.
But Williams is just a close contact and so if he does test positive before game, he can be cleared in play for sure.
Yeah.
So I think this Giants offense is just an absolute toxic way stumph with the quarterback situation, with the just awful offensive line. You know, I don't think Saquon Barkley can create an offense out of thin air by himself. The myriad injury problems at wide receiver, you know, and the Chargers have just been like, this has been a
pretty tough team. There's been some slips, but overall, like this is a really good team, and I think Herbert can create offense even if he doesn't have his two receivers. The one thing that gives me pause here, Dan, is that the Giants defense doesn't suck right, like they might be able to turn this into like a seventeen to ten games. That's the one concern I have. But I'm still probably going to take the Chargers for a you know, one unit bets at minus ten.
How about the Bucks taking on the bills here. It wasn't three for a lot of the week, it's now three and a half in the consensus.
I'm scared of this one, Dan, I like, I don't I could talk myself into over under box Bills, Like give me an angle I can sink my teeth into.
I don't know what to make of this one. I'll be totally.
Honest, totally stay away from me, absolutely, Like, if I'm forced to choose, I think with the Hook, I might take the Bills, just because you know, they're desperate, you know, and they were poorly coached in that game against the Patriots, Like they kept trying to run the ball for whatever reason. They should have stopped because Alan could kind of throw it through the wind and they looked much better when they threw. So they're probably a little desperate and a
little mad. So if I had to go somewhere, I take the Hook with the Bills.
But I am running away from it.
Yeah, it's a fun, sexy game.
Yeah.
The only thing I could maybe talk myself into, I think is the under here m hm fifty three and a.
Half just because you mentioned it. The Bill.
I mean, they're a finesse team. They can't run the ball. They're not going to be able to run the ball against Tampa effectively, so they're gonna be one dimensional and Brady has kind of quietly been not that great lately. Sure, seven interceptions in his last five games, and over his last four games collectively, he's averaging under seven point yards per pass attempt. I mean, we've talked about this on
our Sunday night show. Very often he is settling for the checkdowns and not really hunting downfield or you know, the quick hitters to Godwin, like the quick bubble screens, or the quick slants over the middle, or many many many dumpoffs to Leonard Fournette. So it's not like this is a quick strike, beat you thirty yards at a time offense. This is kind of a you know, like ball control passing.
Game in a lot of ways.
Yeah, so fifty three and a half seems a little tall to me.
You don't have to talk me into an under too hard there, but I do think Actually I log this in our app, which again you can do. You have the betting pros app even if you're not a you know, somebody who does this for a living or anything like that. You can log your pick. See where you stack up on a leader board with other users. How about your packers pat taking on the bears. This is stuck at twelve and a half pretty much generally speaking, since it opened kind of a weird line.
What do you think.
It's it's tilted towards the Bears.
I think at twelve and a half though, right, I've got to have minus one ten pretty evenly for us all that you're looking at DraftKings right at draftings minus one twenty at twelve and a half, where the Packers are even at minus twelve and a half.
Everywhere else I see Pat, it's one ten on both sides. It's just drafting.
Yeah, the Packers have not had that game. They seem to have one game a year, and it often happens against a divisional rival and a lesser divisional rival like the Normally it's the Lions. Normally they sleep walk through their home game against the Lions. They didn't do that this year. Maybe it's the Bears where they have that one game of a year they just sleepwalk through a game at home. But man, it's hard to back the Bears here with any confidence with Justin Fields coming.
Off the injury.
Maybe the Packers get JayR Alexander back, adding to a pass defense that has already within the last six weeks shut down Patrick Mahomes, Kyler, Murray, Russell Wilson.
Yeah, I mean twelve and a half points is a lot.
Yeah, I'm not.
Sure how I feel about that. And I'm just I'm gonna lay off here.
Dan, I'm staying far away.
Also, we'll be podcasting during it, Pat, so you won't even be able to get to enjoy it for your own team there. Yeah, it's just a weird number, and I don't really know how I feel. I you know, Justin Fields will be starting, okay, I guess Alan Robinson back, Okay, But I could see the Packers winning this game by twenty four points, or I could see them just sort
of like kind of have a general malaise. Is they're like, you know, probably don't need to do too much to win this game and not pushing it or anything like that. Last one, Pat Rams busitying the Cardinals Monday Night Football. It's two right now. The Cardinals laying two was two and a half earlier. There's still some two and a halfs out there. Any feelings on this one.
Yeah, I'm kind of leaning towards the Cardinals here laying the points. I mean, last time they played in Week four, the Rams were on top of the world and they kind of got drilled thirty seven to twenty. And I think we've only had more questions about the Rams developed since then, and a lot of them are on the
defensive side of the ball. I mean, they did beat Jacksonville thirty three to seven last week, but before that, they give it thirty six to Green Bay, thirty one to the forty nine Ers, twenty eight to the Titans, twenty two to the Texans, and nineteen to the Lions. So they have not been playing good defense, Like this is not the shutdown Rams defense A lot of people think, I don't know, a lot of people seem to think, based on the recent results recent seasons that this is
still like a really good defense. But all the metrics say the Rams have been utterly average defensively this year. So I think the Cardinals are going to be able to score on this one. I don't know if the Rams are going to be able to score that much on the Cardinals with some of their offensive struggles.
I like the Cardinals here.
I do too.
If I have to go one way, I would take the Cardinals. I you know, haven't been all in on the Cardinals this whole year. I've kind of been waiting for the shoot a drop, but you know, with Murray healthy right now, they are just a better team than the Rams, who are struggling, as you mentioned, defensively and offensively. I mean Matthew Stafford, you know, has he has his games, but you know without Robert Woods. Obviously, Odell Beckham Junior, as much as he stepped in, has been banged up.
Of course, So I agree with you here.
I do also, I don't have current injury information, but I know that they're very good. Starting center Brian Allen got hurt last week early on, and their left guard David Edwards University of Wisconsin shout out.
Both injured last week.
I don't know what their status is, and if those two don't play, protection is going to be an issue for staff Yeah.
That's a good point.
Yeah, I haven't seen anything on them either, but obviously we'll need to monitor that as the week goes on.
All right, Pat, We've done it, We've gone through everything.
Everybody has our picks already from earlier and again we will see about that forty nine Ers Bengals game. We'll see how that one turns out, and maybe it'll it'll you know, push it at one and we can both sort of you know, tip our hats and you know, not be too upset there on Sunday night, and.
The dog stayed quiet. Dan, the chloroform worked perfectly. I don't want to get the pe of people mad at me.
Just forget I.
Said that was a joke. He's earned an extra bone.
Pat My dog, I'm sure is downstairs staring at the neighborhood Bobcat really ready to go out. And if he ever ran out there and saw the Bobcat, he would then turn over and like show his belly or something because he's a whim. But anyway, thank you for popping on everybody. Enjoy your NFL Sunday. We'll be back again on Monday talking about an early look at the week fifteen lines crazy that we're here, ready an early look then on Monday or Tuesday, depending on when we get it out.
Enjoy your weekend, everybody. We'll talk to you again then