Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Ady back with me, Thank goodness, it's whatever. You want to call him. Co host whatever. Matt Parral you can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt Matt. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving. I apparently we made a couple of people mad because we weren't able to get together and do our usual show. But how's our holiday? How you doing?
It? Was great? I'm great. I'm excited for the week. I'm glad we took the week off. We dodged a bullet and look, I think we predicted it way back in the beginning in September when we were kind of mapping out what weeks we were going to take off. I think it was always trying to take off the Thanksgiving Day week and then week seventeen, which is obviously
the worst week to bet in in the NFL. So I think so far, even though we haven't played as perfectly as we would have liked, I think as to when we took the week off, that was a good week to pass and say no thank you.
Now, just a couple of things to clarify. Number one, this one remember you're the other ones, you're in the circa, you're super condent. This one only goes through week sixteen, so we have to take another bye by week sixteen, so.
We even week sixteen, I would take off.
Yeah, well, well we'll figure it out. Well, we'll get through everything. But yes, you are correct, we did in fact move up in the standings by taking a bye week, because that's what it was. And there were the weird There were a couple of weird things, like the Saints. Those lines are locked in, right, so the Saints laying six and a half to the Broncos were locked in before you realize that the Broncos are going to be
playing with a a QB. So there were you know, a game or two that we probably could have gone. But yeah, it was not a good week for anybody last week. But let's get into it for this week, because interesting you like this slate, don't you miss you do? Huh?
I have seven games that I would bet.
All right, well we'll talk about it. I've got I've got a few, but I'm not I'm not feeling it like crazy, but we'll get into it my usual recommendations before we start. Join our discord channel bet Bettingpros dot com slash Chat totally free. Just come talk about sports gambling with other people who are also interested in Also check out our prop bet cheat cheat over at bettingpros
dot com. Slash props compares consensus projections to available props in the market generally, but also that are in your jurisdiction. I'm from New Hampshire. The only place second bet is on DraftKings, so when I go there, it shows me the available props and the best recommendations for DraftKings props. Third, if you want more props, you want more bets, tune in make sure Sunday morning YouTube dot com slash betting Pros Matt does a livestream eleven am to noon. He
talks about his best plays, we talk about props. I always give him a couple of my props before you. On the night before when I do my projections, and again that's really what I do. I do projections for every player for our fantasy purposes and that really helps with prop bets. And on Saturday Night's late night I do a big sweep of them. I go through and then I take a look at the props. I try to give Matt two or three. I think I'm on a pretty good streak.
Can you do projections for every player?
I do projections for basically every player. I don't go crazy with like if I was going to rank somebody as the one hundred and fifteenth wide receiver, like, I have a projection for them, but I'm not willing to like go crazy. But yes, I project every player from every game at Oh, how we roll good roll at Fantasy Pros, baby, don't. We don't take anything for granted. That is why I'm the seventeenth most accurate Fantasy ranker in the nation. That's right, man, I don't know sure.
That's why I'm up till two in the morning on Saturday. It's redoing my projections. It's all for you people.
I need to get see this is I was talking to my producer on the on the on my radio show today. Yep, you have not been on my radio show yet.
I know. And it is a big problem in our relationship. If you know why I'm salty.
I need. I need to fix that. So we're gonna fix that next week. We're gonna rectify that because I don't. It was weird. I was going through and so my other two partners in the circuit in the West Gate, they do weekly appearances. And like my producer was like, so why isn't Dan Harris coming on the show. And I was like, you know what, it's a really good point. Harris on the show. Right, we'll fix that.
We will think I haven't noticed that, blah blah, all right, you will fix that. So look, last week, like I said, we did not play in the DraftKings contest. It was our planned week off, but we did move up. So we are basically at I will call it in the top forty percent. Now, that's not enough to cash. But here's the deal. Matt and I are twenty eight and twenty seven on the season, so that's fifty point nine percent that is not going to do it in terms
of actually cashing. But if you look right now, Matt in the money right now are sixty percent. Now, if we essentially what we need to really do, we've got fifteen picks left because we've got four weeks. We are mandatory one week by so we're going to make three more weeks five picks each this will probably be one of them. We've got to basically blow it out to finish and to finish in the money. But it's probably four My guess is uh not? How many? Fourteen and one?
So we basically can lose probably one game of the next three weeks.
We we now go fourteen and one, We're gonna be over sixty percent, aren't we?
By I don't I think that equals I think that equals sixty percent. You out there listening, you check. But if we're twenty eight and twenty seven, right, and we go fourteen and one, and we're what is that forty two and twenty eight? Forty two out of sixty, we're gonna do this right now? This is riveting podcasting. Hold on forty two out of sixty.
I'm gonna say sixty five percent?
All right, let's well, maybe math's right. All right? Oh wait, you're right. Maybe I'm crazy. Then you're right, maybe that's way more.
Yeah, what is it?
This is seventy So maybe I'm just.
Crazy, way over. I mean fourteen, we close fourteen, and we're going to be up in super content his story?
All right? All right, you know what I think I did? I think I that's right. Okay, Well I don't know whatever. Okay, we need to do.
You the math guy, why I have a model?
Why I have a model. I make sure my spreadsheets do it all for me. But yeah, okay, that's my bad. Either way, we're gonna go fifteen out of fifteen for the next pick, so whatever, God.
I think people, I'll say this, if we were to go fifteen and o the next three weeks, we win the thing.
I don't know about it.
Let's tell you right now. If we close at fifteen and oh, okay, we win the thing. We're not going fifteen and oh we're not, just hypothetically, but we we win the thing. If we wind up, if we're If I'm sixteen picks over five hundred, I know.
What I did. I know what I did. I put in the wrong number of total picks. That's why I had it totally confused. It's completely my bad. I don't know what we need to do, but we need to do better than we're doing. Yes, so let's get started. My bad, everybody. I'm better with numbers, I promise. All right, Matt, as usual, you start us off, start us off with the pick. Let's see what we've got what's your number one pick of the.
Week seven games. I like, let's just start with the one that I think. I like the number. I like the number that we're getting. I like the team. I like the matchup, I like the injury situation, and I like the historical numbers against the team. The Rams own the Cardinals. The Rams are on the road the Ms. The Rams are laying less than a field goal, and I know that road favorites last week and the week before have been death. Totally understand it. Kyler Murray is
not healthy. Yeah, the Patriots showed it last week that without Kyler Murray that team doesn't do anything. Okay, you can have Hopkins all you want, but you've got a great dB that can take away Hopkins on this Rams team, and you're left with trying to score and run the football against Aaron Donald in company. This is a bad week for the Cardinals. They're catching the Rams at the wrong time. Bounce back spot from the Rams under a
field goal on the road. I love the Rams last two and a half this week.
Do you worry what if Murray is healthy? Murray was not healthy last week. One hundred percent agree. We don't know though, whether or not this is an injury that's going to linger for the whole season, do we.
I mean, well, it's a shoulder injury for a dude who's pretty frail. Yeah, and he's got a rip thing too, supposedly, so it's a couple of things. It's mounting, he's not that big, and he's got Aaron Donald to deal with.
Yeah.
So I think it's a bad situation for the Cardinals. And historically speaking, the last last year in Week seventeen, in Week thirteen, it was thirty one seven and thirty one twenty four the wins for the Rams.
Yeah, it makes me a little nervous. It's not it's not a game that I'm on one way or another, but it's a game that I'm What makes me a time bit nervous. I agree with you. Murray's shoulder I think completely changes. You saw it last week. Of course, with the way he played against the Patriots. What makes me a little nervous. I mean the Cardinals blitz a lot. You know what God does under pressure. This is like a must win game for the car What are they six and five at this point? It's a must win
game for the Cardinals. I think the Rams are a better team, so under field goal, I completely understand it.
But it must win for the Rams too, though.
It's true. Well yeah, I mean.
If they want to win the division, they've got to win this game. I mean, these are games they've got to have. And Seattle's got the easiest schedule of all the four teams left to go in the division. It's true, So it's true they've got I mean, if they want to win the division and they want to avoid I mean, they're not gonna get the one seed, but if they want to avoid, you know, not having it going on
the road, doesn't it matters this year? Or we're going the road, but it's better to play at home than on the road. Yeah, you got to win this game. Just you have to win this game, all right.
I'm gonna put in the maybe category. I will say that sixty four percent of the experts on our bet analyzer are on Arizona, and I, you know, just tossing the game up in the air, I kind of, you know, it was a maybe for me. I don't know, we'll see what happens. I could go either way, but I did lean Arizona a little bit just because again, I thought this would be a game where you know, it's a home dog. I know it's it's two and a
half point, it's not a big deal. But with how much they desperately need this game, with how they blitz, all right, we're gonna put in the maybe. It's in the maybe, So no prom there.
Ah.
For my favorite pick, I guess my number one would probably be the Pats getting a half a point from the Chargers. Now number three, what's that?
It's my number three?
So we can we just basically put it in yep, all right, So I really what this just comes down to is coaching. I mean, I can throw out everything else that's going on. I know Newton's a little banged up, so on the Andrew report, that's fine. I know the Pats kind of. I feel like we haven't gotten a great read on the Pats this year, nobody has. Nobody has.
But what we do have a pretty good readrun probably is the Chargers, who at this point just it's just you know, the coaching is going to make up for whatever happens in this game. They're so we.
Saw it in the playoffs, right, We've seen it before when Anthony Lynn has gone up against Belichick. It's been a complete mismatch, and look, they're three and eight. Anthony Lynz comments this week about the fact that they're not making the playoffs. Have you ever heard a coach say that in the middle of the year, Now we're done, like not, like, well, we need some help. We got to win out, Like they's not mathematically eliminated, Like they won every game and they went eight and eight, like
they would have a chance to get in. Maybe not maybe not get in, but they have in the conversation, and Anthony lynn'z like, yeah, we suck and we're not making the playoffs, Like yeah.
I mean, I legitimately think back to Rex Ryan's first year with the Jets where they lost a game that they assumed that they would win, and he originally was like, Okay, I guess we've been eliminated because he thought mathematically wasn't And I was like, oh, no, you can still go if you went out including a game against the undefeated Colts, and like eight other things happened, and he was like, yeah, this is going to happen. We're going to make the playoffs.
We've got it, and they did, and it was highly unlikely that that would happen, but still the sort of you you're in it until you're not in it anymore. But have you ever seen a game bungled like that at the end of the end of the game, with what the Chargers did last week? Matt Like, I've ever seen that.
I mean, I've also never seen a coach down ten with two seconds left run the kicker onto the field. He had the kicker. Somebody had to remind him. And this is where I think gambling came in. Somebody got into a zer and said, hey, by the way, the line's five and a half. Kick it a field goal. We don't cover. Oh okay, justin get back out. They're wunna play. He was gonna kick a field goal down ten.
Yeah, I mean.
This guy is just yeah. I mean, get rid of him immediately if you don't don't want to do it now, immediately after the year is over, because that is a coveted job. That is an unreal job. With Justin Herbert sitting there, speaking of prop bets, if you want to talk about passing yards for Herbert, I think he's gonna pass all over the Patriots. I think he's gonna have a huge game throwing the football. I just I think the Patriots are gonna bend, don't break in the red
zone and they're gonna hold him the field goals. And then on the other side, I think the Patriots are going to be able to move the ball enough and run the ball enough. Eckler coming back is a big deal for the Chargers. It scares me. I'm not gonna do that. But there are some real ticks and tells when it comes to what Herbert does, and I think Belichick is gonna take advantage of that. I think Keenan Allen will just be swallowed by Stefan Gilmour.
And I think Gilmore is gonna take Allan though, I mean he comes out of the slot. Would be my worry about what I.
Mean, historically speaking, that's what's happened. I mean, I mean, I'll give credit to I'll give credit to the NFL network for this, but the NFL network has the status are when these two guys when they play. Gilmore's been on Keenan Allen. I think he's got three catches on like fifteen targets.
Right, Yeah, So well, you know, I mean, look, you know that what the Patriots do on defense is they figure out where you want to go, and they manage to take that away and they force to go to your secondary options. Really in the end, they again, we don't we're not we don't know what the number is for Herbert, and I love Herbert this week. Of course. The only thing that worries me a little bit is the fact that you know, the Patriots are you know, they have the fewest you know, nobody runs and he
plays against them because they run the ball so much. Yeah, the clock keeps moving and everything like that. But we'll get to the prop bets when numbers come out. Of course, either way, we both like this game. That's why we agree on. Let's go to your next one.
Number two for me, I am going to take a number here just like the Rams miles two and a half. That number is three for the West Gates. So you get a better number here with the DraftKings. And I like the hook here with the Texans against the Colts.
I can't believe this is the game that you're going to, but go ahead. Really, you know, so you like you like the Colts, well, I mean here's I don't like the hook. I agree, and I saw you posted it. I think you retweeted the number in the circle I think, and it was three, right.
Yeah, it's three in the Cirkcuts, three and a half in the West Gates, three and a half in the DraftKings.
Yeah. So I at three I really like And I've locked it in at three for Indy actually because here's here's the way I'm thinking that you take away Will Fuller. I mean, have you seen Deshaun Watson's numbers? When you take away Will Fuller is there.
It's it's big.
Who are they gonna throw?
There's a bigger problem. There's a bigger problem.
Go ahead.
The Colts defense is overrated and without COVID, with with the COVID issues that they've got still with guys being out, key guys being out due to COVID. I just these games in the AFC South have been shootouts. They've been up and down, back and forth. Texans are at home. I think it's a three point game, and I think it's a hook. I think it's the three and a half and take the home dog at three and a half.
When everyone's gonna be on the Colts, you might by the time this game kicks, I expect this to be four, maybe even four and a half for him. Really yeah. I think everyone's gonna be on the Colts, I think, I think, and the Colt money is gonna come pouring in and everyone's gonna look at because what you're saying, everyone knows the will Fuller storyline. Yeah yeah, and everyone's
just gonna run with this will Fuller. Without Will full they stink all they had problems with, you know, cheating and you know, big shock, their strength coach got busted, you know, and now and now everyone's getting busted. So it's you know, I just I feel like the storyline's going all against what's happening. And I just don't trust this indie offense right now because of the injuries that
they've got and the fact that Rivers is banged up. So, I mean, we don't know it's ever gonna play for sure. We don't even know that's fair.
I mean, does a toe injury, Yeah, he maybe not, but I assume he's gonna be out there. But I mean, you can give it to any one of those three backs and just let them run all day long. And I get that they've got problems on the offensive line a little bit. I think Kelly is going to come back. He's practicing fully at least, But I mean the Texans can't stop and run. Bradley Roby's out as well. I mean, you know who's gonna stop Pittman when they do throw it.
I just don't know how the Texans are going to be able to up Indianapolis in this game. And I you know, Watson is fantastic. Maybe David Johnson comes back in this game. But I mean, Kiki q t as your number two wide receiver.
At Aikins has had a couple of big games. He was kind of silent last week, but.
Two touchdowns last week. That's he said.
A couple of head a couple of ripped the Patriots. I mean, a huge game with the Patriots, and it's just Shaun Watson. I mean, maybe it's more Watson running the football, him picking up first down. I thought wet him.
I thought that was our thing.
I thought, I do hate the Texas. I always, I always am wrong with the Texans, except for spots like this, because I think the Colts. Everybody thinks this Colts defense is it's this world beater defense.
And I'm like you, I mean, they got there, they got the you know, the Roof blown off last game against Fighting, so this seems like more of a bounce back spot for me, for the Colts and the Texans coming off a big win against a putrid Lions team. It almost seems like this is a spot to buy the Colts, not the Texans.
And I think and that's why I'm gonna go against that theory, because I think everyone's going to be on that and everyone's going to pick at the fuller angle. So for me, I get three and a half here, I get the the hook is a big deal to me. And yeah, I like the three and a half.
I like it less than three and a half. And as you said, you think it's gonna keep moving and go to four. And I guess I could see that. This strikes me as something where if you're right, the books will be fine to hold it at where it is at three and a half. But regardless, I mean, I can't do it, man, I'm on the either side. So I'm not gonna push. I'm not gonna you know, debate it, like to try to be like no, no, let's go on the other way. But you know, I
don't think the Texans. I don't think they can roll without Fuller. Man, I've seen it too often with what happens, and that was with DeAndre Hopkins. Now you've got just Brandon Cooks, who's a talented player. But man, I just don't see how they stop the Colts on either side without Roby. Roby was like there one guy in their secondary they could really sort of maybe take on a cornerback even though he hadn't played that well lately.
Without No why, I don't know, we know why? No?
Oh yeah, right, we know why? Right? Whatever Will Fuller was having, I'll, you know, make me up a little cocktail that I'll think doubles. But I'm gonna go to my next game. I wonder how you feel about this one, Matt, because it involves our two teams, and I know it's I know it's the hook, but I don't care that they're going across town. I don't care that Jacobs hasn't pressed seven.
It's late seven. It's on my list.
For the Raiders. Yeah, yes, so you're okay Raiders because.
It's eight and a half in uh, it's eight and half in the west Gate.
Yeah, Raiders point.
It's a full point. The line's nine already. Yeah, it's gonna it's gonna go to ten, and when it gets to ten, I'll bet the Jets.
Sure, Sure, I'm totally fine with that. But right now, Raiders lank seven and a half points to the Jets. Now, what is that Agalore has a practice with an ankle injury? Do we know anything about?
I mean, when I don't know what, it doesn't matter to me. I mean, I mean, the only thing that scares me is this three all three starting wide altar back to the Jets and Sam Darnold.
They scored three points last week with that exact scenario though against the Dolphins. They were all back last week.
Oh I thought I thought one of them missed last week.
Now all three were back last week they scored the points.
Huh okay, y, yeah, I was. I was on the Dolphins last week in the circa in my seven look. I think at seven and a half, it's it's a value play for me. It's the right side, I believe, And I think the line's just gonna climb. I think they for whatever reason, it's you know, everyone's gonna remember
what happened last week. The Jets were the team last year that the Raiders went across the Country and got destroyed in Week twelve, so they've already gotten that out of their system, right, And with how angry John Gruden was after the loss to the Falcons, I'd be surprised if Derek Carr is not coming out and playing really well this week.
Yeah, that was really That's that's the spot where they that that's last year's that's this year's version of last year's game against the Jets, So that sort of that this is a perfect spot for them to be angry and bounce back. I don't care if Jacob plays. I think DeVante Booker will be more than fine. I think the leeble Darren Waller is going to go nuts that you know, whether or not aguil or plays. Give me Henry Ruggs, give me Hunter Rentro. It's it's not matter.
And the Jets are abysmal. They're just a terrible football team. If you're telling me, I can get them at close to a touchdown even with the hook, I don't care.
So great yea, And the full point of value I think matters too. That the West skates at eight and a half and we're about seven and a half, so we're getting a full point there. So I like that a lot. From a value standpoint and an evaluation standpoint, Vegas is telling you that this number should be higher.
Yep, absolutely. Okay, so we've got two two so far. That's good. Let's go to your next one.
All right. I'm going with a play that I've gone back and forth with. But our number is different than the number in the Westgate here, Kansas City's minus thirteen and a half under fourteen. Given what's going on with the Denver Broncos, and given the fact that there are some real questions right now going on with what the
Chiefs are looking like. I like the Chiefs miss thirteen and a half here to just go and put up a big number and kind of quiet down some people because they had a chance to just annihilate the Tampa Bay Bucks and they took their foot off the gas for whatever reason. They've looked bored and uninterested. But I don't think Drew Locke it's got much. I don't think this defense is going to be able to stop. And this is a big rivalry game for the Chiefs at home,
there'll be some fans there. I just think Kensity destroyed.
Denver Sunday Nights football, right is it Sunday Night football. Yeah, it is right.
I'm gonna lay the thirteen and a half.
Okay, I don't hate it, and my guess is we're gonna put it in. I worry a little bit about the back door cover because they do have a you know, Kensady does have a little bit of a history here of not not you know, not going full out once.
Again, it was ever covered in three straight games.
That what I'm saying.
So, but I think they're gonna hear that. I think that chatter is getting loud and people are saying, can you play for you know, four quarters? Can you keep it? Can you keep your foot down for all four quarters without being bored and disinterested? And look that they only had one hundred and one yards in the second half of total offense against Tampa. That that shouldn't happened. They should have been up by forty in that game.
As somebody who had the Bucks plus three and a half, I was totally fine with it. But yes, I.
Got it as totally fine. I'd rather be lucky, that's fine, Yeah, fine, But a gift from the referees, like.
I heard, Hey, you know what, by the way, this is a good plug Matt for The Daily Jews because one of my favorite episodes was this past week where you were talking about that game and the Chargers and you were breaking that part of it down as well, even though I think you won because you had the teaser on the train.
Yeah, I won that bet, But both those bets were done because I think that there's some real concerns with referees not wanting to be the story. Yeah, and so they're they're they're petrified. I'm not saying they're fixing games. I'm saying they're scared to be the story, right, And so they were afraid that they had just done that Patrick Mahomes pass interference call and that they were going to be the story because it was going to be
a field goal by the Chiefs. And then the game is over and the primetime afternoon slot no one's watching anymore because the game's over. So they want the drama. And the way you get the drama is to keep that game within ten points until they threw flag flag flag, and they weren't the story anymore. It was the near comeback and the Chiefs began the story.
Yeah, So I'm gonna put that one in pencil my guess is that's going. But I'm totally fine with that night. You know, from a purely personal standpoint, there are a few things I enjoy more generally speaking than betting on Mahomes. I haven't done it in a few weeks, so that's probably why I feel that way, considering they haven't covered. But yeah, I think that's going to be one that we'll put in. I'm fine with that. How do you feel,
Matt about one of the next ones out. I actually kind of went back and forth a little bit on this. The spread though it's under a field goal. I realized it's a home dog, so you know, you think about that. But the Saints minus two and a half against the Falcons, I've kind of analyzed this both ways. I don't think that Julio Jones is going to play in this one, because he practiced on Wednesday limited, then he was out today from practice on Thursday, which isn't usually a good sign.
And if Jones doesn't play, the team just doesn't play well. Now, I think you can throw out kind of what happened in that first game two weeks ago, because they didn't even know whether or not Taysom Hill was going to play, and so they didn't know how to prepare necessarily. And Atlanta is playing better, their defense is playing better. But to take away Julio Jones, you might take away Todd Gurley.
I don't really know if that matters. I just feel like it's going to be tough for them to hang with them when when Sean Payton's kind of got the buy, you know, in his sights at this point. So I would take the Saints laying two and a half on the road against Falcons.
It's on my list, and I was talked into it by Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus because I was gonna I was on the Falcons till you know.
I was so funny, man, I was on the Falcons originally too. Yea, that's so funny that you got I.
Was on the Falcons. And then I had a long talk with Eric Giger on my radio show about it, and he basically broke it down like this, And I think it's a fair way of saying it if you go and watch the first half of the game, because I was on the over for that game, and it's only the second time in the last twenty years where one team scored forty three points and the under actually hit. So I had forty three points from the Falcons in a total of fifty four and a half and I
missed that bet. That's how bad I have been gambling over the last seven days. That type of once in a blue moon twice in twenty years type of freak show game happens when I'm on the over in forty three points on one side scores and the Raiders do nothing. If you look at the four to three points, it was all done basically in the last third of the game through turnovers and mistakes by the Raiders. So three and outs and four turnovers for the Raiders and a
pick six and whatnot. You have to get that again if you're gonna back the Falcons because their offense did not do very much.
Yep.
So going into this game against the Saints, it's like, Okay, how big of a drop off is Taysom Hill to this year's version of Drew Brees, not the historic Drew Brees, this year's version of Drew Brees, And up to this point, I haven't seen that big of a drop off with their offense. Different guys are getting the football, but their offense as a productive as being able to produce, has not had that mediocre you know'll fall off the table. Taysom Hill can't play the position that people thought was
gonna happen. Here, I'm laying less than a field goal and I got the Saints defense and Matt Ryan without Julio Jones. Yeah, Sat.
I mean, I think it's a little weird because I don't feel like I have a good sense of how to analyze Hill yet this last game against the Broncos was you can throw that entirely, Yeah right there, touchdown, and it was this game is over, so that that's really all it was. I'd like to see camarrogant more involved. I mean, he had barely involved in the past game,
in all the past couple of games. But I think when he needs to, when he needs to go beyond just the you know, running quarterback that he's been doing so effectively. I think he completed eighteen of twenty three in that first game against the Lane. Anyway, he can throw the ball, he can throw the ball to Michael Thomas. So it just, you know, it's funny because oriusually I was also on Atlanta, but the more I kind of dug into it, especially again with the pessimistic reports here
about Jones and maybe Girly. I would rather just take you know, a team the same if anything like, I'm happy to rely on the Saints defense. It's been playing well and I think they're gonna have a good game here, So okay, I'll put that one in. Then that's good. We're on the same side. Go ahead, you got any more that you like?
One more and it's I'm fading myself because I want to take this team because I have been profitable with this team. I led this team a lot. It was my team of the year coming into the season. But I'm gonna take the five and a half with the Browns against the Titans.
Wow.
And I think this is a low scoring I think this is a fast moving game. You're talking about both teams that are just gonna line up and run the football, and it's Chubb versus h Henry. And I think it's a three point win for the Titans. It opened up a three and a half. It's been bet up to five and a half now to six at some books, and it's climbing. I just think at five and a half and six, I just think you take the points here and take the dog and look for a twenty four to twenty win for the Titans.
Interesting. So I actually this is I don't have a lean whatsoever on this game, Like I really don't. I don't know how to feel. I knew we weren't going to be talking. I frankly, I thought we just weren't going to be talking much about this game because it was a five and a half. So I knew you couldn't take the Titans, because I know you hate doing that with any favorite laying five and a half. But I didn't think that you'd go against the Titans, especially
not how they live there. I mean, I don't know. I don't know how good the Browns are. This is really free, right, don't they They don't.
They don't need to be good here. They just keep the game close. I don't even win the game. But I think if it's three, I'm all over the Titans three and a half, I might even take the Titans. But at five and a half, I just think it's a numbers play for me more than anything, because everything is screaming the Titans at five and a half, and I think it's gonna be one of the more popular plays of the week. Is gonna be on the Titans.
So I'm just I'm fading that feeling. I'm fading that momentum because I think the Browns have the ability to run the football and keep it close and keep the football away. And yeah, the Browns do have a negative point differential of twenty one points. Yeah, and the Titans on the other side, the Titans are plus thirty nine. But I just think that the Browns are giving up two hundred and eighty six points a game. That's not horrific. Great,
but it's not horrific. They're scoring two sixty five, But I mean they're five and one in home, that three and two on the road. Are they overrated at eight and three? Of course they're overrated at eight eight and three. They're not gonna win this game, but I think they can make enough plays given the fact that I think both teams are gonna run the ball a lot, that I think there's a chance the game is close.
Okay, Well, I don't hate it. I want to put it on the potential list for sure, because you kind of talking me into it. You're kind of talking me into it. I like where your head is at, and I think it does make a lot of sense. There's going to be so much running in this game, yeah, that it's just going to be ridiculous. I don't you know. I hate relying on Mayfield just because I watching him miss some of those throws in the end zone just
pisses me off. But I will say that I think the it's probably going to be a field goal game does make sense, especially you know. I also kind of like a little bit selling the Titans after that ginormous win last week. I feel like they could come down there, So I'll put it on the maybe list. I like it, all right? Do you have any that was it? Right?
That was your last seven? Yep?
All right, So now I don't have any others really that I was. I was leaning towards one way or the other. So let's talk through a couple of other games. Let's see maybe if by talking it through we like any of them. Let's start, and this is I'm surprised, Matt. I'm surprised that one of the games that you are not taking is the forty nine ers getting one and a half against the Bills. I thought you would love to fade the Bills in this spot.
I can't hear I can't touch the forty nine ers. I just I what are they?
I don't know, why, don't know, I don't.
Certain weeks they rise up and it's like, oh my gosh, they actually can run the football, and in other weeks they can't tie their shoes.
Yeah, so like I I have those start back now, so you know which is big? Yep, that defense. Obviously they got Sherman back, so they got a little healthier at the defense. Now. I don't really I don't want this game, Matt, but if there were a side, I would take the forty nine ers. It's on Monday night football and now they're not home. I don't really know when they're not. That matters, right, they're playing in Arizona.
I have no idea what that means. I mean, how do you? I mean, I think that actually is a good thing for San Francisco to kind of get out of there and just be you know, it's it's just play the game, that's it. And I think the first game of the two is probably better than the second game because just reading the reports that you know, the players aren't allowed to be around each other except for
they can't communicate except for zoom. Yeah, so like I guess Kyle Shanahan said to the team that please let him know if any players are having mental problems and they're breaking down, which I don't think happens in the first week, but could happen in the second week. So I may be more concerned about next home game than this home game. But I mean, it's the Bills on the road. It's the Bills with Josh Allen, who throws picks the number. To me, you would think this number
is higher, Okay, you would think so. I think the books right there are laying the groundwork for a bit of a trap, and I think everyone comes in on Buffalo heavy and then watch San Francis go win the game out.
Right, right, That's kind of how I thought. I thought, that's possible to be a game where this is this the number of the number set at begging people to bet Buffalo.
In my mind, I mean, maybe it is, but I mean I just to go ahead and take Nick Mullens and say Nick Mollins is gonna I mean what I am not.
I'm not pounding the table for this game. I will say though, that I be on the forty nine ers if we want to go on away like if you came in and said the Bills, which of course I knew you wouldn't, I would be like, whoa, whoa, whoa. Not I don't. I don't feel good about that, but I do lean the forty nine ers for basically the reasons we're discussing. But yeah, too many variables. Okay, how about the Bears who are laying three and a half against the Lions in Chicago.
I can't even like, like, what do you do with this game?
Yeah?
So the Lions fire Matt Patricia. I mean, sometimes teams rebound and playing, Sometimes teams rally right when they.
I think that usually generally speaking, their support for the notion that teams play better the first game.
Yeah than after a coach. Yeah, so maybe it's you know, hooray ding dong the Wicked, which is dead. Okay, maybe that works right, And maybe there's this like win one for the Gipper thing. But I mean the Lions are trash yeah, okay, there, their roster is trash aside from just the team being coached, like trash, their rosters. Yeah, and the Bears. You want me to pick the baar? I mean, like I'm gonna back the Bears to do anything. Yeah, I can't even.
Like, no, I would, I will be honest that I would probably be okay to back the Bears if it were three or less. Not when you're over three. Because the Bears, I think are going to be able to do really to whatever they you know, whatever the high end of their limitations are on offense, I think they're going to be hit. They're going to be able to hit the high end. I think Montgomery is gonna be able to run all day long. I think Alan Robinson is going to be in for a big day. And
for Matthew Stafford. There's not gonna be any Kenny Galladay in this game. I guess DeAndre Swift is gonna play. There was all the weird stuff this morning about how it sounded like maybe it's not out of the concussion protocol. Now it says he is, but he didn't practice with an illness. Who knows. They don't have the playmakers. I think Chicago wins this game. So if I could get it at a field goal or less, I probably would like that. I don't like it though, overfield goal at three and a half.
The line is three right now, but not for us.
Correct the line is three right now the consensus line. If you go to betting pros dot com you can see it. And I do have I do have it at three. I have placed a wager, not not the larg winder, but I placed the wager at the Bears three. I don't like it a three and a half. That gets me a little nervous, and I'm certainly not back in the lines under any circumstances. Eagles getting eight and a half against the Packers in Green Bay.
So I have Dave Sheapin, who's a longtime book maker who's been on The Daily Juice a couple of times. He's great, and he's on my show all the time. So him and I went back and forth this morning on this game. Because this is given the last two weeks, I would not I wouldn't take one of our valuable five picks and use this. But this might be worth the money play for me because everyone is going to be on Green Bay yep. The world will be on Green Bay, yep. The number is going to go to
ten yep. And I'm gonna take the Eagles yep. I mean it's eight and a half for us, right, it's eight and a half for us. So I thought about it. I mean, I really did.
And if you had come in here, if you would come in here and said I want the Eagles eight and a half, that would be in the contest match. That's where I'm at it.
I'm we eat a fourth, So I'm not a poster. I mean, I'm telling you, I'm gonna bet this game, and I'm going to bet the Eagles. And and Dave's Dave thinks something saying He's like, this.
Is really this strikes me as a game that he thinks that nuts.
He thinks I'm crazy to go ahead to go against Rogers in green.
Bay like that that's fair.
And he thinks, like, what are you doing going up against the Green Bay Packers? And you know, given the fact that Philly can't stop anybody. But I just think that this is an Eagles team. I don't like Doug Peterson at all. I don't like Carson Wentz at all. But you're going to a part of the country where Carson Wentz played football college football, and you're going into an environment where he needs to go and do something
to justify his job. And if he takes Green Bay to the wire and they lose by a field goal. So what I just I think Philly's in the game and eight and a half, it is prime for a beat, right, prime for a backdoor.
And you know that, you know the Eagles, you know Wentz right exact. Now, that's that's pretty extenuating circumstances. But yes, I agree with that. And really, the way I look at this game is that the Eagles defense is not terrible. I mean, they can stop the run at the very least, and the Packers can't stop the run. And why I realized that Seattle has a better run defense in pass defense, although they did, I mean, their defense as a whole
is getting better right now. But the idea that Peterson came out and it was first and five to start that game after the penalty, and he threw three straight times absolutely mind boggling. I think there's got to be a realization that, like, look, I get that, you know, we want to fix Carson Wentz, but maybe the way you fix Carson Wentz is to establish a running game a little bit with Miles Sanders and everything like that.
So I do think they're gonna run run the ball a ton here against you saw what Montgomery did last week. I think They're gonna run the ball a ton in this game. It's going to rain the clock, it's gonna be able to keep it close, keep Rogers off the field. And yeah, I don't mind Philadelphia here. I mean again, this is sort of the same thing. And be like, am I really ready to back a team like the
Bears or the Lions or you like? But if you would come and been like, yeah, I'm gonna put on the maybe list and when we get to the final ones, we'll talk about it, I guess. But gross Bengals getting eleven and a half from the Dolphins in Miami.
Can't do it with a backup quarterback on the road.
Yeah, just kidding. What if it was to it, by the way, would it matter? Uh, because it might be too you know, he's gonna tell us Sunday morning.
Yeah that's the report right now. No, I just I'm looking at Cincy more than I am Miami.
That's what you're saying.
Yeah, that concerned about Cincinnati scoring, Like everybody's loving this Miami Dolphins defense, and I just I just don't know what the since the offense does. Yeah, it concerns me that all of a sudden that they may get you know, they may actually be able to put up a number or two. So what do we do if they do that? If since he's scoring and they keep it and then they lose by ten, lose. So it's just it's too big of a number for this Dolphins team.
And oh, I'm not taking the Dolphins, Matt, That's not.
What I'm saying. The Bengals.
I'm not taking either side just there. I'm not fanning this game or going anywhere near it. But I do think if there were a side to take, certainly, if TU have played, I'd prefer the Bengals at eleven and a half. But I don't know. Eleven and a half.
It's so many points, Matt. I realized that they looked abysmal last week, and they got a special team's touchdown, so that was one of the reasons why they kept to close, but still eleven and a half points against the team that really you know, you know, if the Jets could have scored a touchdown last week, they cover that ripe a spread, right, So, but I don't want to go near it. But that's just where I'm If I had to pick a side, I'd go with the Bengals,
particularly if to a starts. How about the Jaguars plus nine and a half against the Vikings in Minnesota.
So who's playing quarterback for the Jets?
For the Jaguars, yeah, do we know? Yeah, it's Glennon for sure. For sure, he's been named the starter.
What is going on with Minshew? Oh?
Nothing. The coach is just the worst coach in the world. He's back being healthy, he's clear to start right here starting.
Why isn't Minshew playing in this game.
Because the coach is terrible? I don't I don't have an answer for you. Because they they they wound up losing by two to Cleveland, and maybe he thinks he wants to save his job by he thinks that gives him a better chance to win. I don't know.
Yeah, there's just it's terrible that uncertainty is large to me because what if what if Minshew gets put in like the in the first quarter, things don't go well, and all of a sudden he comes off the bench and he starts slinging it, and then all of a sudden Jacksonville was live again, And it's like, uh, oh, So, I mean I would I would lean to the Jags if I had to take a side. I would take Jacksonville. But I mean I don't like Kirk Cousins.
You know this, I do, and I know we like to fade Kirk. This is exactly what now, I don't want this game. Just to be clear, I do have them at ten and a half. They's spreading our contests nine and a half. I have the Jaguars at ten and a half because this is the fade Kirk Cousin spot. Yes, this is the like quintessential fade Kirk Cousin spot. Now it's the Jaguars like an historically bad team that I'm not like, Yeah, let's go get him nine and a half.
That's great, right, But if you're giving me, especially over ten, I am taking that. So my advice if you're listening, if you can get it over ten and a half. Yeah, I do think the Jaguars are gonna hang here because the Vikings secondary is terrible. So the Jaguars, they still put up points last week. Hopefully they get Chark back. James Robinson is a stud. He's gonna get his so I think they'll be able to keep it close a little bit here. So yeah, I like him in ten
and a half. But below ten single digits. I'm just no, there are other games I'd rather go with. How about the Giants plus ten and a half against the Seahawks.
Until we know about Danny Dimes and what he's doing, I mean, do we know about him yet?
So I think the expectation is he's going to miss the game, but he is upping in practice and he's going to travel with the team, so it's possible. But I think the expectation is Cole McCoy.
Yeah, if he was playing, I take the ten and a half, But without knowing what's going on with Dan, I can't. I can't back either thought of here because yeah, Sales at home and I like Seattle, but I think their defense is still not that great and I know that New York defense might get victimized me and everyone's getting victimized right now by the passing attack for the
Sales Seattles. So I would like to take the ten and a half points if we had Daniel Jones, but since we don't know about it, it's a no play.
And even if he plays, I'm not going to feel comfortable that he's going to make it through that game right now because he's it would be dicey for him to play, So I agree with you. I would rather just stay away if we If he was coming in and fully healthy and this was the line, I'd take it and not worry about it. I mean, Seattle always plays one score games. That's just kind of what they do with Colt McCoy and the rest of the night.
I don't really feel comfortable about that. Yeah, how about Washington last two games here Washington plus eight and a half against Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh.
If I was going to bet this and take this game, Okay, if you were to stay on a table and tell me you wanted Washington, I'd go along with it. Yep, that's how I would take Washington. I think Washington's defense is really underrated. People aren't and I think, look, the the Ravens gave a blueprint for Washington to go ahead
and copy. And sure you can't script drop passes. I understand that, kid, but but I mean, I I think there's something to be said there about having having this quick turnaround and having your whole world be thrown up in the air. Playing now, you know, five o'clock Eastern time start on Monday, after playing on Wednesday, and you know, Tomlin's really angry, but like, you know, there's not much he can do because you can't meet the guys go
run hills or something. I mean, like, you know, he can't do much in the middle of the year with all this, all the pandemic problems. Pouncy, we got to see if Pouncy's if he has if Pouncy has COVID, he's out for this game. He's not playing correct. So I mean, you're without your your your your signa caller, and you got you know, Chase Young in that defensive line and without your center. Oh, big Ben has not
been moving around all that. Well, you're talking about one of the better defensive lines in the entire NFL getting after a statue back there at quarterback.
Yeah.
So if if I was gonna play, if you told me you wanted Washington, I would not fight you on this.
That's actually exactly how I feel. This was one of the games where I was like, all right, if Matt comes in and says, you know, Dan like this game feeling it, I'd be like, all right, yeah, I'll put it in. That's fine. And again they lost Bud Dupree. That that's you know, huge. Yeah, it's big, so I don't mind it necessarily. I do feel like the Steelers.
Are I like I like Washington more than Philly. Okay, Okay, we'll talk about teams getting eight and a half points on the road. I like Washington more than I like Philly.
All right, so I'm gonna cross off the Philly regardless when we go through our finals and we and we talk about what we want. But that's fine. I'm okay with that last one. Ravens laying eight and a half to the Cowboys in Baltimore.
This is another one, Okay, So you're gonna get Lamar Jackson back in this game. It's a Tuesday, Tuesday night game. Like what Tuesday night?
You say this?
So we have Tuesday night football. We have a Ravens team that couldn't do anything offensively, But I don't know what Dallas does. Put it this way, I think I think Jackson comes back and has a huge game, running the ball all over Dallas. I just don't know. I don't know what Dallas looks like like. The reason I want to take Baltimore here, but I'm scared to listen to you to delay this type of number here. Just because I don't. I mean, it's what seven and a half?
It is eight and a half in the cons Oh gosh, it's seven and a half right now. If you go out there and you're trying to bet it, it's at seven and a half right now, it's at eight and a half in the contest.
Yeah, it's just too many points right now for me. I mean it was seven seven, okay, but eight and a half screams back door or something screwy happening. Raven's making a mistake. Yeah, they're six and five. That was their season yesterday, So I mean, losing that was brutal they have.
I mean, you know, you throw out that they couldn't do anything offensively. They didn't have Dobbins, like obviously the biggest one is they didn't have Jackson. Then they they lost RG three, you know, in the other game, not that he could really do anything anyway.
Didn't mcsorly start.
I you know, I don't know with the way he looked in that game, I know, I mean I think what they basically thought is, look, it's gonna be RG three running the exact same offense that Lamar Jackson can run. Not as well, but he runs the exact style of offense that we run, and so that's what you want to you don't want to, you know, say, like.
My point was, isn't that what Pittsburgh prepped for? Yeah, and they prepared for that offense. So why throw a curve ball at him and throw out and throw mcsorly or at least like throw a package or two together and have McSorley out there throwing the football because he looked way better, yeah, throwing the football than RG three did.
It's pretty crazy what RG three is now, right, Like how amazing he was when he came out of college and that I was explaining it to my son, my second year old, and just trying to He was like that guy's not very good, dad, And I'm like, yeah, I know, but there was a time where he was like amazing, could totally take over. Yeah for me. Look, they've got so many question marks, especially as we're looking at it now, and we probably won't know by Tuesday even.
I mean, they've got injuries all up, you know, the offensive problems, but also injury. I mean I think I didn't I wasn't paying that close attention to that game by the end, because good it was unwatchable almost, but yeah, you know, I think, uh, maybe it wasn't a Humphrey but Jimmy Smith left.
Yes, yes, and I thought something too all like every big name player with the name.
So it's just a game where I look, do I think if you were like you have to choose a side, I would take the Ravens at eight and a half because I think they're they're gonna have a bounce back spot eventually, and I just don't think Dallas is very good, but not for this contest. Okay, So that's every game. So let's talk about the three that we have definitely agreed on. And there's a four four the Chiefs Is that the fourth? Yeah, yeah, that's fine. Okay, I'll put
the Chiefs in. That's fine. The Chiefs were sort of like, I'm penciling it in, but I'm not petting it in. Pats, I guess it's getting a half point from the Chargers.
They're really they're getting a half a point?
Did I You know, I always mix it up half the time.
I think they're laying half a point?
Are they laying half a point? I think check check our check my messages to you. While I while I did this. Hold on, I'll look at it right here. The Pats are getting half a point. I'm right, Whatts are getting half a point in our contest?
They are?
Yes, I am infallible. I make mistakes on well.
The Patters are now minus one and a half, so yeah, getting two points of that.
This was a This was a everybody's gonna take the patris and they should. I don't care if it's going to be a public play because I'm just to give me the coaching edge. I'll take the coaching edge, and I'll go home with my winnings. Pats getting half a point from the Chargers, the Raiders laying seven and a half points to the Jets, the Saints minus two and a half points the Falcons, the Chiefs laying thirteen and a half to the Broncos. So we've got one more.
We need a dog, Yeah, we need a dog.
You need a dog, Okay, So the dogs that we are considering are well, the other guys we're considering were the Rams laying two and a half against the Cardinals, which I I don't love completely. So we've got we've got two dogs. Then to choose from the brown and I'm okay to do this one because I think you like this one a little bit. The Brown's getting five and a half from the Titans, or it looks like Washington getting eight and a half from the Steelers.
You're gonna have to break that tight because I like them both the same. I like them both the same.
Do you really like the both of the same, because it sounded like you liked the Browns a little more.
They are. They're on my list of number five. But remember why I'm picking. I'm picking because I'm fading myself on that right because i want to take the Titans. Like I've had to, like slap my hand because it's five and a half and I hate that number in contests. I want to take the Titans, but everything is screaming Titans, and that means we have to take the Browns, or at least I do, because I've been This is just the public's going to be riding this saying Baker stinks,
the Cleveland Browns are overrated. Titans just annihilated the Colts, so it's gonna be a big public play. So I'm going the other way and I'm taking the Browns. The under the radar play will be Washington against Pittsburgh because I think it's either Pittsburgh or no play for most people.
Yeah. Yeah, And it's it's interesting because this is unfortunate. Part of it's like it's like buying high on Washington because the big Thanksgiving performance, and I really don't want to do that. But their defense is legitimate, absolutely legitimate. And given the fact that the Steelers are having troubles stopping the run after they've lost Devin Bush, oh man, this is close. Okay, So this is one and I know we don't like to do the mat but we we gotta let these marinate a little bit.
So well, sure, I'm with I'm with swapping out this week. It's getting late in the year. I mean that there are things, especially on a Monday night COVID situation, if there are big issues with Cleveland or Tennessee for COVID, we can swept to a Monday night Washington. We have the extra day.
Yeah, Okay, So for now, for right now, our unofficial pick, it's gonna be Washington. And the reason really is the fact that I could see a scenario where the Titans just completely blow the roof off, you know, Henry runs for two giant, you know, monster runs aj Brown breaks a seventy our touchdown early on, and the Browns are down fourteen to nothing, and suddenly they're like, oh no, we can't run this.
My brain is saying that. I'm telling you no, my brain is saying Titan's big. And I'm fighting myself because this feels too easy. And when whenever that happens, I always want to check myself and take the other side.
Right, yeah, I think, uh, well, let's let's put in Washington for now as our fifth pick and and a half. And this is a good mix, a good mix of you know, we're we're mostly favorites, but it's it's a pretty good mix. And I don't think we're going to be too public in all these plays, but we'll see, we'll.
See we're going to be public. Dude.
Yeah, you're right. As I was looking at it, I was like.
Chief like the Chiefs, We're going you want to go real? We did just go take Philadelphia, take Washington, take the take the chance. And the books.
The books had a huge week last week, right, last two weeks. Yeah, so they're due for correct a mini correction, right is correct correction? Okay, anyway, look, you guys know what we do. We I will I will put them on Twitter what our final picks are when we make them, which is usually Saturday night. I don't worry about anybody following us or whatever for the if they're in the contest.
So I'll put that up. Then we'll talk about you know, Matt, we'll talk about our picks on YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros on the live stream Sunday morning eleven am to noon. But this is good, and we've got some options here if we decide that we don't like. But again, this is the time of the year. You're right, Matt, Like nobody could have predicted what happened that the Broncos we're gonna be playing without a quarterback. Like there can be developments of course at this time of the year
with COVID, But for now, you feel okay with this, Matt? Yes, all right, very good, So do I all right, So that's gonna do it for today's Betting Pros. NFL podcast will be back next week. Of course, check out The Daily Juice, Matt's great podcast, and again Betting Pros dot Com, YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros, where you can check out Matt's live stream on Sunday morning from eleven am to noon. Until then, we will talk to you next week, same time, same time,