Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. As we enter week thirteen, it is time to talk about our best bets for the NFL for this coming weekend. Here to do that with me is our good friend Ian McMillan from bet Sided. Find him on Twitter at Ian mac betts. That's a I and Ian, thank you for joining me. How you doing.
I'm doing fantastic, my friend. Right We're really in the grind of the NFL season right now, so I'm excited.
Well, I was telling you before we started recording that we're coming off a little bit of a rough week here on this podcast. Again, I mostly blame you for that, even though you were not on it, but I do want to ask, how is the bet every single game sort of you know, experience going for you? I think it's been pretty good if when we last checked in on it.
Yeah, it's still going well. I mean I got off to a really hot start to the season. I've cooled off a bit in recent weeks, but I haven't had any like bad bad weeks. That are like really hurting my record. So right now, betting on every single game so far, I'm sitting out one hundred and four wins seventy five loss is one push. I'm up just over twenty five units right now, so I can stay fucking kind of stay even keel here for the rest of the season.
I'll be happy. That's where you are right at this point. You're almost like playing defense. You're just like, exactly, I don't need to crash it. I don't need to crash it. Just just sort of keep me right in the middle there, and I'll be fine going forward. So excellent, all right, Well, hopefully give out some winners here again. We're going to do our top three best bets of the weekend again, anything we want here. You can do money line if
you want, but obviously spread and total bets. We will then quickly run through the remaining games before we sign off, and before we get into it, of course, I will remind you of the latest offer from our sponsor here bet MGM. New customers can bet ten dollars and win two hundred dollars if your team scores a touchdown. Players who bet ten dollars again win two hundred dollars in
free bets. I's a team they've bet on scores a touchdown when you use the code Juice one hundred that is available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona, and Wyoming. Because I'm contractually obligated to run through last week, so I will do so quickly. I'm gonna blame it on the fact that it was like Thanksgiving, it was earlier than usual recording, so whatever. But Pat Fitzmorris our
guests went one and two. He did hit on the Lions plus three versus the Bears. Fun fact, he actually thought he had taken the money line. He texted me on Thanksgiving to say, oh man, what a bad bet with the money line. But he actually had plus three on the podcast, so he did get the win there. But he did miss on the Raiders and the Cowboys under fifty one and the Rams getting one against the Packers.
I went on and three, fantastic. I missed big on these Steelers getting four and a half from the Bengals, which I loved. The Texans Layington and alfter the Jets and the Titans and the Patriots under forty four. I'm now eighteen and eighteen on the year, so let's get it back again. I'll use the betting pros consensus lines when we talk about it, but Ian you are our guests, please begin with your favorite bet of the weekend.
Before I get dude, do you remember what my record was last time I was on the show earlier in the season.
Off the top of my head, I don't, but I can look it up.
I think I hit Bengals money line back then, but then I think I lost at least one. You definitely Bengals against the Ravens, right.
You definitely hit the Bengals in the money line. You know what, I tell you what. I will look it up, but definitely the Bengals are a frequent visitor on our podcast here with a Wares. I remember one hundred percent. You hit the Bengals money line for sure that week. I think it was like plus two twenty or whatever it was. Hold on, I'm looking it up right now.
Let's think it was the way I mean, not that I got it too much.
I got it.
Oh, you do you have it right now?
I do, all right? That's that. You took the Bengals on the money line two thirty against the Ravens. You had the Bucks laying twelve and a half against the Bears, and you had the Patriots and they under under forty two and a half.
Yeah, that one didn't hit. Don't remember the Buccaneers game to be.
I'm looking at right now. I'm looking at it right now. Hold on, I'm looking it up right now. No, you went too and one. Yes, you hit. The Bucks did cover the twelve and a half. I got it, have my fingertips and you're fine. This is a great podcasting. Yeah, you're fine. But you did miss on the Jets and the Patriots under forty two and a half. So you're two and one. That's that's great. So but you have to go through another week. That's how we're all right.
No pressure. I don't unfortunately, don't have a money line pick this week, but I'll I will get started. I do. Yeah, they they scare me. I missed on a couple so that they scare me a little bit now, but I am on a big underdog, but I'm on them to cover the spread. That is, the Bears to cover the eight point spread. Against the Cardinals this week. I mean, it looks like Kyler Murray's back, I believe, so everyone's gonna kind of jump on the Cardinals right now. Best
record in the NFL. Kyler Murray when he was healthy was looking like an NFL MVP. But let's not forget the Cardinals can't stop the run thirtieth in opponent yards per carry, So teams are able to run the ball against this Cardinals team, and that's how the Bears get their yardage. Forty two point sixty five percent of the Bears offensive yards come through the run game. That's the second most in the NFL. And actually, the Bears have
been playing well recently. If you look at a stat called net yards per play that I look at quite a bit. Over their last three weeks, they're like third or fourth in the NFL in that stat. So Bears sneakily playing some half decent football recently. Their defense has picked it up a little bit, and now they're getting eight points, and I believe they're at home as well. So my first bet of the week Bears plus eight here against the Cardinals as an underdog.
So this is under the assumption that Kyler Murray is going to play DeAndre Hopkins doesn't matter to you either way if he plays, assuming that he plays, or still thinking is out or irrelevant to you.
I'm assuming that he plays. But I mean if plus eight, I mean I'll if it stays at that number, I'll take Bears no matter who plays.
And so you are not concerned about the fact that they squeaked out a win on Thanksgiving against the lowly Lions, then.
Not really. And I mean also there is a benefit, a little bit of an extended by or a little bit of a it is rest for them as well. But no, I doesn't concern me a little bit too much. I mean, obviously, anytime I battle the Bears, because they're just generally not a good football team, I'm a little bit concerned. But the spread is over that magic number of seven. I mean, if it was below a touchdown, then maybe I'd leading Cardinals. But at eight points and I believe they're home as well.
Yeah quite a bit. I am going to call you a coward for not taking them on plus two eighty on the money line, but that's fine.
That's fine.
Yeah, Look, I don't have a great feel for it, honestly, Like when I looked at the game. I just you know, I don't know. I think what worries me a little bit about the Cardinals really, like putting aside like anything that you said there is just the fact that, like we are how many weeks removed here from this Murray ankle injury and even now they don't talk about it like, yeah, he's he's good to go here. I mean we've been
game time calls for two weeks. Then off the bye, you thought like, okay, this point, dude, it was an ankle sprain, Like let's go. They're a completely different team if he plays but is immobile as well. So it is something where yeah, I wouldn't take the Cardinals in this game coming to Chicago, but I don't know, I don't feel confident enough in Chicago, so to stay away
from me, but not gonna avoid it. You are definitely going to go against me in a couple of these bets, I guarantee, because even I when I think about some of these bets, have to sort of double check how I feel. And this is we're going with the other team who's coming off a bye, but I'm going the other way on it. Off the mini bi that is the Lions. But I'm going the other way, and I'm
taking the Vikings to cover the seven points spread in Detroit. Now, when you look at this game and you look at sort of the trends that you know, might you know, go in favor of one team or the other, everything looks like it should favor the Lions in this game. And I wholly admit that the Vikings are one and eight against the spread in their last nine games as a favorite. Three of their last four games have been on the road, two of them in California. They play
a lot of close games no matter what. Every game but two was decided by seven points or less. Half of them have come down to the last play of the game. So this is not a team that blows anybody out. Part of it, I think is just that they can't keep their foot on the gas, like they jump out to leads and then they just sort of go, you know whatever. These teams have already met the Vikings where I think ten point favorites at one point in
that game, and they barely won nineteen seventeen. Again with the last second field goal, Detroit is off the mini by the Vikings are missing Dalvin Cook They've got a ton of injuries on defense. Patrick Peterson's on the COVID nineteen list. All of this says the Lions are going to be able to cover this seven point spread. But I just refuse to buy it in this one, and I think that this is going to just be a Vikings route. Honestly, I think they're gonna win by double digits.
I just don't think the Eagles, the Eagles partly the Lions can hang right now with the Vikings. They are Lions are obviously going to be missing their most explosive playmaker in DeAndre Swift, and since then Campbell took over the play calling, like an already stagnant offense has been even more stagnant. I know they had Boil under center
at one point, but really there's no creativity. It's a lot of sort of conservative stuff, and I just don't think that's gonna be able to hang again with the Vikings. And again, the Vikings are gonna be out without Dalvin Cook, right. I think that's actually, in some weird way in going to help them in this game, because as Alexander Madison
is an absolutely capable guy to fill in. But I think it's going to force them to go to the air a little bit more and to you know, highlight what they actually do better as opposed to Mike Zimmer wanting to run the ball constantly. With Dalvin Cook. They are second in offensive past d v O A, the Lions defensive DVOA against the past twenty eighth. It's just a good matchup here for what they do well. Let trustin Jefferson, let Adam Thield, let Kirk Cousins do their thing.
This is an absolute must win game here for the Vikings as they try to stay in playoff contention. Obviously, I think they come out here. I think it's the rare Vikings statement game, and I think they cover the touchdown spread go ahead. So you gotta be on the Lions.
Right, not only the Lions. They're my money line picking I will say. I mean, I hate my bet. I hate the lines money line bet. It's a stupid bet. So every single point that you said about the Vikings I agree with. They're all correct, the right point, the only real I mean. First of all, I've bet the lines money line I think already like three times a season, So I'm.
Kind why not the Bears? Why not the Bears may be your buddy line pick. Man, if you're on them, you think they could win that out right? Yeah?
Well, I mean that's that's why I didn't want to make Lions money line my one of my top free picks here because I don't feel confident in it whatsoever. I just wanted to take a deep shot. I will say one counterpoint, and a reason why I do kind of lean the Lions is that they have been running the ball a ton the past three weeks. Dane Campbell has just completely turned to the run, and the Vikings right now are dead last in the NFL and Copony yards per carry. So but I mean DeAndre Swift as
I believe, I believe is oh by Samaal Williams. Jamal Williams is a is a pretty decent backup running back, So that doesn't concern me too too much. But I think the Lions will have some success on the ground a little bit. But yeah, so I'm on the lines, but really that's just that's just kind of my shot in the dark. Hail Mary of the week. It's not a it's not a bet. I feel confident. I could certainly see this being like a twenty point Vikings win for sure.
So I'm not kidding you. If you support any of the three bets I'm making today, I'm going to be surprised. I'm not kidding because I I guarantee you that the quote unquote sharp Side, which you know, I'm going going to say that you're you know, you're a very experienced better you're a smart guy. I'm going to say that you're probably going to see a lot of these same angles at the sharp Sea, which I see as well.
It's going to be on the Lions right like it just has to be, because a seven points spread against the Vikings with everything that you see in this divisional game with Detroit at home, it's not a game that you think the lot the Vikings are going to be able to cover really is. And this is really I'm
not kidding, man. I really think that the Dalvin Cook injury actually helps them and it's going to force them to go to the air more, which is going to you know, I realize that you're right that the Lions are going to run the ball NonStop, and that's really what they've done. And Jamal Williams is an absolutely capable running back. He's not de Andre Swift, but he's capable
of running back for sure. But I just think, Man, even with all their injuries, even with how they struggle against a run, I just think this is going to be something where they are going to exploit them through the air, put up a ton of points, get a much needed victory. But I am not surprised. I'm maybe a little surprised on the money line, but not at all surprised that you sort of like the other side as I would expect. Really with this game, go to your second pick. What do you have?
All right? Second pick? And this is my favorite bet of the week and one of my favorite bets of the entire NFL season, to be honest, and it's and it is a public side though. I'm taking Raiders minus two and a half here against Washington. A couple of reasons why I like this bet quite a bit. Number One, I think this is a very good cell high spot on Washington. So they've won three straight games, they're starting to convince people that they're not a bad football team.
But even though they've won three straight games, over those games, their minus is zero point nine to seven and net yards per play so actually getting outplayed. But they're just finding ways to win these games. And then you look at just normal statistics, I mean, twentieth in offensive yards per play the season, twenty ninth in opponent yards per play,
twenty eighth in opponent yards per past tempt. So like, don't let the last three weeks fool you, Like this Washington team is not a good football team, and then the Raiders are the complete opposite. Not a very good record, but netyards per play and just quick explanation of what it is is is just your offensive yards per play subtracted by the deep like the yards given up on
defense per play. In the NFL, the top teams and net yards per play got the Bills, the Rams, the Bucks, and fourth on that list is the Las Vegas Raiders. So statistically they're very good. They have had issues both on third down and in the red zone, on offense and on defense. And that's kind of what's affecting the record right now. But not only am I on the Raiders to win big this weekend's Washington Last night, I placed a bet on the Raiders to win the Super Bowl at eighty one.
Oh god goodness.
At eighty to one. I had to put a little sprinkle on it because just those those yards per play statistics, man, they rank among those top contenders like the Bills, like the Bucks. So if they can figure out their third down woes and the red zone woes, they're statistically a very good team. So, I mean, I don't think the Raiders are going to win the Super Bowl, but I thought it was worth a little bit of a sprinkle
at eighty to one. And if there's ever a season where like a six seed or seventh seed can go on and win, it's this year because of just the amount of parody in the NFL this year. So Raiders love them this week for sure.
In the AFC, there is no standout team, like without a doubt, like we've seen it, right. The Titans obviously have sort of come back down to earth, the you know, the Ravens, you know, squeaking by basically in a lot of their wins. You've got the Patriots and the Bills this weekend. We'll talk about that game in a second. And the Chiefs obviously have shown some mission and one
I'm not gonna argue with anything. I do like this this bet though, even without by the way, I want to confirm because almost certainly, Darren Waller is probably going to be out here. He's obviously been a big piece of their offense. You're still okay with it. You are basically baking that in and assuming that you're good with them still.
Yeah, I mean in general injuries, I I don't change my opinion too much when when when guys road At the end of the day, this is still professional football players. Sure, yeah, I don't even to be honest, I can't even think off the top of my head who their other tight end is. But at the end of the.
Day, theos more he's very bad. By the way, he's not bad. He's not a bad player.
Most of the time. In the NFL, except for maybe quarterback. Most of the time, the backups certainly aren't as good as a starter, especially I did a guy to the level of Darren Waller, but they're still competent. They can still go in there and make a couple of plays. So yeah, no, it obviously i'd rather if Waller was playing, but it doesn't. It's not gonna sway me away from the bed.
For me, it's really offensive, like the offensive line injuries, that's where I look at and that that's what really makes me nervous, not as much as skill players. Yeah, I like this one, and I really like what the Raiders did against the Cowboys, and again they were missing Darren Waller for most of that game. It was two things. Number One, they they established Josh Jacobs a little more,
which they had gotten away from a little bit. And it's not like Jacobs is some necessarily elite running back at this point, but he can get things done and they were kind of, you know, limiting him a little bit for no reason. The second thing is again the loss of Henry Ruggs, Like they stopped sort of spreading the field a little bit with that deep threat, and they were having trouble sort of finding the underneath routes and they finally got the Shan Jackson a little more
involved than you see it. It takes the top off the defense that can't have safety help coming in on. These guys like Hunter. Renfro had a monstrous game against Dallas. So I think that's sort of the formula that we've been waiting to see. You can pass all over Washington. They're on a short week, but this is also by the way, mini by and a short week here colliding right because the Raiders plan on Thanksgiving and Washington played
on Monday night. So yeah, I liked it. I look when we looked at it on Monday, it was a game that I liked as well. And I think their win total was six and a half for the Raiders, so this one would go over it for the season. Well on your way to winning a Super Bowl, be my good man. So let's see about that, all right, man. There are two teams that I have faded generally ian and it has not worked out of late. And they are the Patriots and they are the Bengals. And this
is the first of the two. Dan is drawing a line in the sand games and that I'm taking the Bills laying the field goal at home on Monday night against the Patriots. I continue to think the Patriots are a little bit overrated. The defense is legitimate. I'm not taking anything away from it. I want to make that clear. One of the best defenses in the NFL. I agree. It's really the offense that I don't buy. They have six wins and in a row, the only close one
was the Chargers. They run the ball well. Mac Dones is executing that offense to perfection. But I went back and I watched that game against the Titans. I'd listened
to this part in the radio. I went back and I watched it, and there's a period in that game last week against the Titans where Mac Jones looks completely lost two drives, only that three drives, and you know, then they were able to run the ball a little bit better and change things up where when the game was put on him, when he had to do some passing coming up, he looked lost a little bit as they changed their scheme and they got a little pressure
on him, And I think that's what we've got. And now we are going to Buffalo on a nationally televised game in a very tough place to play, particularly now as we are into December where it's going to be cold. Rain right now is in the forecast, but either way, that is a really really tough place to play. And Jones, like pretty much every quarterback, but certainly rookie quarterbacks, struggles
against pressure. A seventy three point eight percent completion rate when not under pressure seven point nine yards per attempt, fifty nine point three percent completion rate went under pressure six point two yards per attempt. The Bills get pressure thirty point two percent of the time. That is the highest pressure rate in the NFL. They don't blitz a ton either, so they're able to do that without the blitz.
And the Patriots survive on the run game that is what sets up their pass But the Bills are one of the best run defenses in the league. And to win this game, to be able to put up points, I feel like it's gonna have to go on mac Jones, and I just don't think he's going to really be able to do that in this environment. And again, they
lost to fore Deevius White. But if there's a team where losing Trudevius White doesn't hurt you quite as much against it is a Patriots who don't have that prototypical number one wide receiver. Offensively, the Bills have been struggling, I fully admit that, and I don't expect them to sort of run roughshot over the Patriots here. But if they do have a weakness, right, it's the run. That's
not usually how the Bills sort of attack. But I do think that given the fact that the Bills are off the mini by here again, they have a little extra time to prep for this I think you're gonna see a lot of Josh Allen running here as he looks to avoid chances. And I think Stevan Diggs can beat any quarterback. We saw the brilliant move that you've seen all over and over and over against marsha On Latimore. I think they're going to be able to move the ball,
put up enough points. And again it's three points or last man, You're really just basically saying, I think they're going to win this game. So I think they're gonna win this game. So I'm taking the Bills at home on Monday night to reclaim the AFC East here in the divisional match up laying three.
You know, Dan, you said that you assumed that I was going to be on the opposite side of all your picks. I think I might be with you on all these picks because I'm on the Bills too. Really, yeah, I'm not always. I mean, I think there's some sports betters out there who just kind of like follow the sharp side. I'm certainly not one of those guys. I'm a very statistic space handicapper sometimes. I mean a good portion of the time I'm on the public side, and
statistically the Bills. I keep citing that net yards per play. That's my favorite stat to look at, especially once we get halfway through the NFL season and the Bills are first in the NFL by mile. So that's a good sign for the Bills. And the other thing that I like to do betting, especially on the NFL, is sell high on t teams, buy low on other teams. And there's no team to sell at a higher mark right now than the Patriots. Six straight wins, six straight covers.
Everyone's just starting to talk about how their super Bowl contenders. They're certainly a playoff team for sure. As you mentioned, their defense is very very good. I just don't trust that a rookie quarterback is going to be able to lead the lead this team to a super Bowl, be able to lead this team against teams like the Bills, very good teams in the NFL, especially in you know,
bright light situations. So I like the Bills quite a bit. Yeah, I statistically, and I'm just gonna sell high on the Patriots. So I'm with you. I'm on the Bills.
Yeah, I've been. I've been trying to sell high in the Patriots for a while here, but really, I mean look again, I want to make it clear just his Pats fans, And again I live in New England. I'm quite familiar with you know, they get pretty angry, including my in laws, that I think the Patriots are a very good team. They're going to make the playoffs. They are not as good as the Bills. Like there, you can't have Mac Jones is a very very capable quarterback
right now. I've been impressed by what I've seen from him in the NFL. But he is doing well because of their and because of their system, because they run the ball so well, because they don't take chances. I think in this game he's going to need to take chances. We have seen him have plenty of rookie moments. And again in Buffalo against a team like the Bills with that defense, I just don't see it. And we are
in December, like it is different. Also playing in Buffalo on a Sunday game at one o'clock in September as opposed to a Monday night game in December. In Buffalo, it's a tough place to play. Used to go to school. There's plenty of Bills games. Love the fans. I think they're gonna win this one. I think they're gonna win a big so I will take them. Glad to have you on my side. Third pick for you, Gitzar, what do you have?
So I'm going with a total, So a little bit of everything here. I gave on underdog, gave out a favorite. Looking at a total. Now I'm going Raven Steelers and I'm gonna go over forty four. At least that's what it was that last night. I haven't checked if the line is of up beatda all this morning, But when you think of the Ravens and the Steelers, like your mind just goes to the fact that they have two of the best defenses in the league. Because it's been
that case for like two decades now. It's usually almost every single season in the top five defenses, you'll find the Steelers in the Ravens. But that's not the cases here at all. As a matter of fact, both of them are like near the bottom and most defensive statistics. Steelers are twenty fifth and opponent yards per play the
Ravens are thirtieth. The Steelers can't stop the run. They're thirty first in pony yards per carry, and the Ravens can't stop the past thirtieth in opponent yards per pass attempt, So you got to kind of wipe your mind of kind of just like what we've assumed would be the case a year in and year out in the NFL. These defenses aren't good, but yet the totals only set up
forty four. Now, I know the Ravens haven't scored a ton of points recently, the Steelers offense has been bad, but for total this low, I wouldn't want to bet on the under when both defenses are like bottom five and a lot of major statistics. So I think this total is way too low. The over forty four Raven Steelers I think, I think we're going to reach that here.
Yeah, I'm with you on this one for sure. And again, I do think that the defensive reputations sort of stick in the public's mind with this sort of thing, when really both defense are entirely exploitable here and again, I believe, I hope I'm not making this up that TJ. Watt was placed on the COVID nineteen list. I think I could be now making that up as I say that, I'm sort of having a panic attack. Doesn't matter, but you can look it up but I think he was
placed on the COVID list. But that's a huge loss assuming that he's out. Obviously, I don't know whether or not Joe Hayden, Am I right? Am? I right with it? Was he on there? Were you looking it up? Yeah?
You're correct. And Steelers linebacker Robert Spiellen is he a starter? Oh yeah, they just added another linebacker to the COVID list.
But by the way, they obviously I mean Ben was on the COVID list, like they obviously have some sort of COVID issues that they got it. What is a huge deal though, obviously, and maybe Joe Hayden comes back here. But either way, you just saw the Bengals just completely decimate them. But I do think that the Steelers are gonna be able to put up points as well against the Ravens. So I'm with you on this one. I like it as well. I'm going to continue to fade
the Bengals. And what I really would like Ian is after I do this is for you to explain to me how you feel about the Bengals, Okay, because I haven't always faded them, and when I have sometimes it's worked out, Like the game against Cleveland. But I faded them against Pittsburgh, and maybe that was more of a raw ra spot that I like Pittsburgh and whatever, but I'm going to fade them here. I'm gonna take the Chargers getting three against the Bengals in Cincinnati. This is
again you mentioned sort of the Bilo Sell High. I think the Bengals are a very classic sort of cell high team right now. Back to back wins, monstrous performance here. They won with these against Pittsburgh. Chargers just lost to Denver. So that's usually just sort of the natural spot that I feel like, I generally like piques my interest a little bit when I look at teams and I think of where the right spot is to back a team versus faded team. That's where we are here. And really
these two teams are just pretty even. The Chargers are sixteenth in overall DVOA, the Bengals are eighteenth. They're very similarly matched teams. There are some things to worry about for the Chargers. Obviously, their run defense is horrific, and we just we've seen now the Bengals lean into Joe Mixon here. We saw it in this most recent game. For sure. I think the Chargers, though, are going to get Linval Joseph back here. He's on the COVID list.
He's you know, he's eligible to come off, but he wasn't vaccinated, so he should be able to come off still at this point a couple of days, but I think maybe today might be the day where he's able to come off. Assuming that he does, which I am assuming right now. It makes a huge difference for their run defense. Again, their run Devens is bad, but a lot of it has just been because they haven't been healthy that much. So Joseph makes a huge difference in
that run game. So West Coast team is traveling east. I get all that, but this is a game the Chargers have to win. They absolutely have to And I know the Cincinnati deve it's just looked awesome against Ben, But that's a different story here. When you have that offensive line and you have a quarterback like Ben who's immobile, who just gets the ball out, charges are much better offensively.
Justin Herbert is mobile, Cincinnati is susceptible to like the big plays down the field, which of course Herbert can do. And you know, whatever they've done against opposing passers when you look at the opposing passers that they've faced. Ian Like, they've faced a pretty easy slate of you know, opposing quarterbacks here, so the fact that they've generally held like passing games in check not crazy, but generally I think
it's a little overrated based on who they've got. It's really just a fade of the Bengals here in a spot where again selling them high buy and low on the charters, I think they're overvalued in the market because of recency bias. So I'm fading the Bengals for like the eighth straight week here and hopefully things turn around. All right, what do we got fading or following?
No, I like it. I agree with almost every point that you made. Now Now in my so, I am on the charters. But this is a game like a true coin flip game for me, so like I'm betting on every single NFL game. If I wasn't, I would probably just stay away from this game because, like you said, statistically, they're right next to each other in a lot of major stats that I look at. But anytime there's a coin flip game, I'll just go ahead and take the team getting the points. So that's why I'm on the
Chargers here. They do have slight advantages in like the yards per play categories, but the Chargers defense bad on third down defense and bad in the red zone as well, and that's kind of where the Bengals have their advantage. So depending on what stat you look at, some favor the Bengals, favor the Chargers. So true, coin flip game, in my opinion, I like your point about we're selling high a little bit on the Bengals buying a little
bit low on the Chargers. I like that as well, and that's another reason why I'm on the charters here, So coin flip, I don't love the game any literally, anything could happen in this game and I wouldn't be shocked. But in these kinds of games, I like just taking the team with the points and hoping for the best, right.
I like taking the underdog, obviously in these types of games where you really just have too evenly matched teams, and I don't think it's a huge home field advantage or anything like that, but yeah, I really like I know bilos sell high is pretty simplistic, but more often than not, that's a place where you see an edge here where the public wants to back obviously, teams that are riding high. So I would love to very quickly just go through the remaining spread see how you feel
about them in a very quick, rapid fire fashion. But let me recap it. You're taking the Bears getting eight from the Cardinals, the Raiders laying two and a half against the Washington football team, and the Ravens and the Steelers over forty four. I'm taking the Vikings laying seven to the Lions, the Bills laying three to the Patriots, and I am taking the Chargers, sorry, getting three from
the Bengals. All right, let's go through it. The Eagles are visiting the New York Jets, second straight game here for in the Meadowlands. They are laying now a touchdown. There are still six and a half's out there. Bet MGM is at six and a half, for example, but for the most part the books are at seven. Not sure if that makes a difference for you. Obviously, we have a few questions about Jalen Hurts and whether or not he's going to be able to suit up, but
he is practicing here so far. So what do you think of this?
I'm on the Jets and the point. I'm making some now that we're going to go through the other games. I'm on some ugly, ugly bets this week, and one of them is the Jets offensively over the last three games, both the Jets and the Eagles averaging the same amount of yards per game. The spread, I got it at seven. It's right at the touchdown. It's kind of that magic number. Jets are at home, not a lot to really have to back up on it, but I'm taking the Jets here.
I got to stay away from this entire thing, man, I get it. I'm luckily I don't have to bet every single game, but if I did at seven, I probably would take the Jets, And if it's under a touchdown, I might go with the Eagles. But we'll see Bucks visiting the Falcons laying eleven. This number stayed pretty consistent all year long, all week long. It was eleven when we looked at it early. So what do you think I'm.
On the Bucks to cover. I'm a Falcons fan. I've talked about this before. I've gone back. I've gone back and forth on the Falcons all season, but I've kind of said the fact that they're gonna be they're gonna beat the bad teams. They're gonna beat the teams that they should beat, but then they're gonna get blown out by the teams that they shouldn't beat. Cowboys smoked them, Patriots smoked them. Bucks are gonna smoke them here as well.
Yeah, I'm on the Bucks as well. I remember you tweeting out before that Patriots Falcons game. It was enjoyable to watch you you just sort of going off on them. All right, how about the Colts are visiting the Texans. The Colts now are laying ten. This was eight and a half when I looked at it on Monday, so it has really moved in the Colts direction. Here. What do you think now? At ten?
Is it up to ten? Who?
So there are couple I will say this, the CONTENTSU line is ten bet MGM. For example, has it a ten DraftKings where I bet is at nine and a half Fox bet is at nine. But for the most part, the majority of the books are sitting there at ten. But I mean, if you can talk about it, if you like it at nine or you know, whatever you want, if it makes a difference to you.
I took it, so I lock in my bets Wednesday night, So I got a bad number for me because I'm on the Texans. So I'm on Texans plus nine. Another ugly, ugly ugly bet. Fun fact though, and I found this out last night. For opponent yards per play over each team's last three games, it's either second or third best mark right now as the Texans now, if you look at who they played the last three games, so I think it's the Jets, Dolphins, and the Titans and the Hurricanes,
So there is some context to that. But to be fair, the Texans defense has played a little bit better recently. And I'm not totally sold on the Colts to be honest.
All right, back in a team that just lost to the Jets, you you gotta have some intestinal floriditude for it. Yeah, at ten. At ten, i'd stay away from it, you know.
If anything, I'd back the Texans. I kind of like the Colts when it opened up at eight and a half, So I think i'd probably be on them at nine personally, because I do think that they may come out here and just again in a game that they obviously absolutely have to win, may make a statement, but yeah, Texans are a team I can't get a great read on at this point because I feel like sometimes like, of course I back them against the Titans when they were getting ten and that was, you know, one of my
favorite bets of the week for sure, This one not at sure. What about the Dolphins at home length four to the Giants still sounds like it's gonna be Mike Glennon, I guess, But you know, Daniel Jones is practicing at this point, so who really knows any thoughts on this one.
Yeah, I'm on the Dolphins. Dolphins having kind of there's some positive regression from the Dolphins recently. They're playing a lot better than they have early in the season. Everyone's talking about two has played fantastic in the month of November. And like I said, I locked my bets Wednesday night. There's no way that I was gonna lock in the Giants and then have Mike Lennon start on Sunday. That would have been a disaster. So I'll avoid that completely.
I'll just take the Dolphins and hope for the best.
I'm with you. I've I've kind of been a secret like Dolphins backer. And again, you know, Matt Prawlt, who hosts Our Delly neuws podcast has you know, teased me about being like a huge to offent. I'm not a huge two of fan. I just think that he is better than Jacobe Brissette and makes the offense passable, which he does. Jayalen Waell's playing incredible, so maybe they get DeVante Parker back here, by the way, so I agree with you though either way, even with Jones or Mike Lennon,
it doesn't matter me. I'll take him into four. The Rams at home lank twelve and a half to the Jaguars.
The Rams have killed me recently. I've been the biggest Rams defender in the world. And then last week during their game, I tweeted halfway through the game about how the Rams are actually good, they're just running into some bad luck, and like thirty seconds after they tweeted it, they gave up a touchdown and then Matt Stafford threw pick six. So I just look like an idiot when I did it. But I mean, I'm a stats guy.
And so they're owing three bow straight up and against the spread in their last three games, but in net yards per play in those three games are like plus point six y one, which is like the fifth or sixth best mark over each team's last three games, So they are statistically a good team. Just Matt Stafford's throwing bad at interception. Sean McVeagh, I haven't been a big fan of his play calling, but I got it back
the numbers. The Rams are still like one of the top teams in the NFL stittistic statistically, and the Jaguars stinks. So I'm on the Rams, but I think I've just committed a dying on the Rams hill this season.
Well, to be fair, I basically I will never bet on the like no matter what, I just won't. I won't do it because you know, I have no confidence that they'll be able to make any adjustments whatsoever in the second half, and just how poorly coach they are, so I would be on the Rams. I'm staying away though. Obviously this is a game where you would like to see the Rams come out and just basically completely dominate the entire thing. They really need a get right game.
We talked about the total. Obviously, Ian, you're on this one, but what about the Steelers getting four and a half from the Ravens in Pittsburgh.
Yeah, if I were to take I saw it. I would take the Ravens laying the points. And the reason why I mentioned about how the two defenses have the two big weaknesses. The Steelers can't stop the run, the Ravens can't stop the pass. Well, it's a better offensive matchup for the Ravens because I mean, who runs the ball better than the Baltimore Ravens. And then whereas the Ravens defense not going to stop in the pass. But do I trust Big Ben to kind of win the
game for him with his arm? Not necessarily, so I would back the Ravens in that spot.
I have absolutely no feel for this game whatsoever. The Ravens haven't played particularly well. I would probably continue my trend which does not always hold a backing Mike Tomlin in the raw ros spot where they are favored by more than a field goal. But it's a game that I will run away from at this point. Forty nine Ers visiting the Seahawks laying three and a half. Obviously, we've got no debo Samuel here for the forty nine Ers. Seahawks look like an absolute mess right now. But it's
a divisional game, it's in Seattle. What do you think?
Yeah, I talked about making ugly bets this week. This is another one, even though it's I mean, it's a small spread, but I love the Seahawks in this spot. And it makes no sense because the forty nine Ers have been rolling. The Seahawks have looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL recently. But a big stat that stuck out to me is, like the Lions, the forty nine Ers have just completely turned to running the football. Over their last three games, They've run the ball.
I think it's like sixty three percent of their plays or run plays, which is insane to see in the modern day of the NFL. But this Seahawks run defense is actually their biggest strength. I think they're fourth or fifth and opponent yards per carry. So that's the thing that the Seahawks do the best is stop the so I mean, and then outside of that, I mean, they're at home. It is a divisional game. Weird things happen.
It just the forty nine Ers. Seems so obvious that the Seahawks have to be the play here.
It's got to be. This is a line that basically imagine the split's going to be like seventy five to twenty five public is on the Niners, right like, this is a line that says take the Niners. Makes me very nervous when the books basically say go ahead, Ahad, we know we're not We're not going anywhere, go for it makes me nervous with it. I can't back them.
I can't. It's to stay with me in a divisional game, which is a perfect letdown spot here for the forty nine ers, you know, and again you mentioned how much they run. It would be interesting because I mean, Deebo Samuel is basically taking like six seven carries a game anyway, but it would be interesting for me to see how this game is going to turn out. But with Russ looking the way he's looked, I just can't. I'm staying
away from it entirely. But it's a line that makes me think they want you to take the forty nine ers, and that always gives me pause for sure. Last one, because we've already talked about the Monday night game, Sunday night game. Here the Broncos are visiting the Chiefs. It is nine and a half across the board.
I'll take the Chiefs, I'll lay the points, and I this is very unlike me because for like the past two seasons, I've been very anti Chiefs as far as the spread goes. But I think the Chiefs might be starting to peak. Their defense lately has been much better their past few games than they were earlier in the year, and despite all the offensive struggles that the Chiefs have had this season, they still rank first and third down
conversion percentage, which is very important in my opinion. If you can convert those third downs, you're going to get points. And I think this is also a little bit of another cell high spot where the Broncos have the past few weeks, they're kind of starting to convince people that they're a better team. They are. They're fine, Broncos aren't a bad team, but they're around average too, slightly below
average team. And then you got the Chiefs coming off the by Andy Reid has historically been a very good coach off the buye And it's not a bet that I love because it is a lot of points, especially with how the Chiefs have played generally this season, But I think we might start to see the Chiefs peak a little bit here as we hit it in the final stretch.
I really wanted this to get to ten. That's where I really wanted it, because it's not I'm staying away from it. If it got to ten, I would take the Broncos. I think that you know, Teddy Covers is going to be able to keep it close enough. And the Chiefs have looked better and their defense, right, that's
really the biggest thing. That's what gives me long term hope on them for sure, is they seem to have solved a lot of their defensive issues with some really just personnel, you know, getting some guys back and moving a couple of guys in the line around. But I still think that the Broncos will be able to hang with them. But I think ultimately they lose this game, and it's something where I if it got to ten, I would jump on the Broncos. Other than that, I
am just staying away from it. All right, this was great, It was great to have be I will let me recap actually right now before you I let you go here just so everybody can remember, I'll go with mine first. I'm taking the Vikings lane seven to Detroit, the Bills laying three to the Patriots and the Chargers getting three from the Bengals and you are taking the Bears getting eight from the Cardinals, the Raiders laying two and a half against the Washington Football team, and the Ravens and
the Steelers over forty four. Let's change the mojo. Get things right, Ian. You are a great follower on Twitter. At a great follow on Twitter. I enjoy your Falcons rants and all your crazy stuff anyway, but remind everybody where they can check you out.
Yeah, best place is Twitter, as you mentioned there at the top Ian mac Bets I A I N M, A C B E T S and check out the Bacon Bets podcast. That's where I break down my best bet for every single NFL game throughout the season. So check out it as well.
You are a mad man to do that, but you are doing You're incredibly successful. Let's go no giant losing weeks. That's where we'll go here for what we'll report everybody. Thank you for joining us. We'll be back again on Monday, as we always are, taking an early look at the week fourteen lines, but I will say that we are adding this week a podcast that we will be recording
tomorrow Friday. Whenever you listen to this, it will also be on our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros, where we'll break down some of our favorite player prop bets for this weekend, so make sure to check that out. In the meantime, I will talk to you then and again on Monday.