Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I am your host, Dan Harris. That's Pat fitz Morris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ada. You can find Pat on Twitter at fits underscore FF. It is time to talk about our best bets for Week twelve of the NFL season. We are live streaming this right now on our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
Pat.
It's almost Thanksgiving? Are you Are you ready for the big holiday or what?
I am?
Dan?
I'm always ready for Thanksgiving? And what an underrated week of sports Thanksgiving Week is. I mean, you start the early part of the week with some really interesting, fun college basketball tournaments, you get the NFL Triple on Thursday, you get great college football rivalries on Saturday, and then more NFL on Sunday. So, like I think, it's just a dream sports week. Loving every minute of it right now.
Yeah, well we need you know, the NFL Thursday on this one isn't exactly lighting you know, the room on fire with this. The games are not that especially the first one. I mean, you know, the Bears and the lines.
Just not what we want.
But I understand you may be making some picks here on some of our Thursday games, which is great, and we're.
Going to do some player props.
Part of the reason we can't do player props obviously on this show is because for the most part, they're not out at the time we do it. But right now we are going to be able to do it because there are enough props out now because it's Thanksgiving. That's why we are live streaming this again on our YouTube channel. So if you're in the I see some people chatting already, people waiting for the garage door to open, which is great. It will be opening, I absolutely promise you.
My wife has an appointment in about twenty minutes, so it will get nobody worry about that. But in the meantime, let's go through both our latest offer from our sponsor bet MGM. We'll recap last week and then we'll do the usual show giving our three best bets for the weekend or in this case, some on Thanksgiving if either one of us has any picks for that, and then
we'll do some player props here for Thanksgiving. And again Pat and I, as in addition to being betting guys, are also both fantasy guys and not to our own horns, but we're fairly accurate with our fantasy rankings over the last several years, and part of that leads into player props. So we'll get there and again, if you have questions and you're here joining us, and I see that somebody asking about cole Comet receiving yards prop, we'll talk about those as we get there and over under our garage
door taking over on one and a half. That's a good bet. That's your best prop bet obviously of the weekend. All right, let me get into our latest offer here from our sponsor, BETMGM. Before we get into the show, new customers can bet ten dollars and win two hundred dollars if your team scores a touchdown with the coach one hundred again.
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at the team you bet on scores a touchdown. That's available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona, and Wyoming. All right, let's quickly recap last week our guest Mike Randall, Pat and I we were just talking about how much we love Mike and how great he is at the college basketball stuff. But he did go
just one and two last week. He did hit on the Vikings getting two and a half in that matchup against the Packers, but he missed on the Seahawks getting three. The Seahawks continue to be.
Just our kryptonite on this podcast.
And he also had Carolina laying three and a half and they of course lost outright, I went to and one. I hit on the Chiefs laying two and a half to the Cowboys, was our betting pros pick out the day for Sunday, and the Texans getting ten from the Titans. I did miss on the Raiders getting one from the Bengals. That puts me in eighteen and fifteen on the week on the.
Year, pardon me not on the week that would be a big week for me. All right.
I remember we've consentives lines o our Bettingpros dot com. I will mention the different books that are available. They are moving these lines, that including the Thanksgiving lines when I looked at them just yesterday before preparing for this show.
Again.
You can make picks and their Betting Pros app which you should download. You can make your own picks against the spread. You can see where you stand on a leader board and all of that. Bat you were the guests on the show, I give you the honor of making your first pick here. What's your you know, what do you want to say your best bet at the weekend? However you want and put it out there. But what's your number one pick?
Yeah?
So let's start with that aforementioned Bear's Lions game. Dan, I mean, yeah, what a great matchup you've got to bet at pretty much because you're not watching it for the outstanding football.
True.
Indeed, so I really like the Lions getting three points at home here for one, I just have a policy. I would never bet against the Lions on a Thanksgiving Day game at home. I'm either taking the points they're inevitably getting or I'm just laying off, but this time I think I want those points. And it kind of comes down to well, number one, I don't think the Lions are that much worse than the Bears this year.
And number two, I mean, I think it's the coaching situations.
You've got the volatility of the Matt and Age situation in Chicago with him being a lame duck, a lame turkey if you will, on Thanksgiving, and you know, in Detroit, I think they have some a spree decorps with you know, with Campbell, Like everyone loves Dan Campbell, so like, I think they're going to be fired up to try to go out and get their first win of the season on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. And you know, I like getting a few points here. Yeah, So I'm taking Detroit
in the three. That's one of my bets for this week.
Does are you assuming with the bet or does it matter to you who starts a quarterback here for the Lions, Because of course, now there's there's some optimism, at least expressed by Dan Campbell, that Jarred Goff is going to be able to go in this game and it's not going to be Timboil doesn't.
Matter to you at all.
No, and on either side it wouldn't.
I mean to me, like Dalton versus Fields, Boil versus GoF neither one moves the needle one.
Way or the other in this one, I don't think.
All right, well, it does sound like it is going to be Dalton. I think Matt Naxan came out. Of course, you referenced it. There are reports that nag is going to be fired immediately after the game, which he denies that he was not.
Informed that he was going to be fired. But we'll see.
Yeah, this is a tough one for me. Pat there. It was three and a half for a while and when it opened at three and a half. I don't know if the movement to three is because money coming in here on the Lions or because of the fact that Jared Goff could start and people think that that's better for the Lions. Either way, I don't really have a great feel for it. Necessarily, I'll be involved in this game, probably from a props per perspective, which again
we'll talk about it a little bit later here. But I like the boldness of making one of your best bets not only on the Lions, but also on Thanksgiving, So we're gonna know how your week's going right off the bat. Pat like, no fear whatsoever. You don't want to punt it, tell punt till Monday night. That's my philosophy, Like let's wait until the week's alve was suffer.
But yeah, I'm not.
I'll just being honest. I don't have a good feel for it, Like I'm not betting it one way or another. I'd love to see the Lions win. I'd love to see them cover, but you know, I can't back them, man, I can't back them even with the do you last question?
I guess do you think?
Because we have seen coaching sort of stuff, you know, as much as he's lost the locker room and everything like that, but we've seen coaching stuff go the other way a little bit, like people in turmoil and then they kind of rally and then they play better.
You don't really are.
You putting anything into the coaching situation basically in this game for the PA.
So yeah, I mean that's that's where a lot of it comes from. I know the Raiders sort of crossed us up with that, Like the more you know, the more turmoil the Raiders have, the better they seem to play is here, at least as far as the coaching goes. So no, I mean, I do think it kind of matters that, you know. For one, like I think the Campbell's the players coach, the players like him. For another, I don't think he's an idiot. He's not a you know, a Wayne Fonce. He's actually a decent head coach.
I know, I used to love Wayne, like, and nothing entertained my stepdad as much as like watching Wayne Fonce coach on Thanksgiving Day and make jokes about him.
So I do miss Wayne. But yeah, just like it seems like when you're getting these reports about the divided locker room for the Bears and how how some of these players are just like actively stabbing him in the back and telling reporters that they.
There's a sizeable player population.
In that locker room that wants him gone, like that's not a good thing, and like are they going to go out and play for that guy on a holiday? It just I would not be surprised if the Bears came out pretty flat for this one.
Yeah, And I do think that it's a little different than Gruden, which you know, obviously Gruden situation didn't have anything to do with the locker room at that time and him being gone and that first came back that might have been a relief right for them. In this one, you have the reports that the players are actively basically being like, you have lost the locker room. I'm done, and so that is really tough there to go. But it is a stay.
Away from me.
We'll get some props a couple of them that I might like in that one, but at stay Away, you're a brave man. I love going in on the Lions for one of your best bets. I am going to take it in. I won't say an equally disappointing team, but a team that it's very difficult to get a read on, but I like the spot for them.
If you've listened to.
This podcast, it is the Steelers on the road in Cincinnati getting four and a half here against the Bengals. Now here's what I'm going to say. I would bet this now if you were listening to this, because I do think from everything I'm reading that the big three defensive players that the Steelers were missing last week. TJ Watt, Mika Fitzpatrick and Joe Hayden.
It sounds like they're all going to come back here.
And if they do, if they get through practice and they'll come back, this line's going to drop a little bit. So this is for me a prime teaser piece. Pat. I want to bet it last night for the Steelers. I mentioned this on the Monday Show. I want to bet it last night and tease it up. But DraftKings was the lone book sitting out there at four. Every other book was four and a half. Draft Kings sat out there at four. When I woke up this morning, it was at four and a half. So I did it.
I teased it up and I messaged you this morning. I said, bad, I need the second teezer piece because I can't necessarily get there. And we did come up with a few. But bet it at four and a half if you like the Steelers like I do. I said last week that I was fading the Bengals Pat against the Raiders. That didn't work out very well for me, as I said, I did lose that bet. But I'm putting that a little bit more on the Raiders than
I am on the Bengals. I mean, I can't buy the Bengals, Pat I look at just total DVOA and I know Matt Parl always teases me because I love DVA and I look at it closely and stuff like that. But just it's a good measure of how good a team actually is in my opinion. And Cincinnati's twenty first Pittsburgh twenty, it's two pretty evenly matched teams. And you look at the weighted DVOA, Pat, that's more recent game sort of in there, Pittsburgh twenty. It's since he twenty fourth.
Again with Pittsburgh now getting healthy on defense, I think it's a different game. I think a divisional game, it's generally pretty close. And again I'm a broken record here, Pat, but the history shows us there are spots to back Mike Tomlin. There are spots to fade Mike Tomlin. This is a back Mike Tomlin spot for two reasons. Garage or number one.
There we are.
It always comes in. I promise you, I knew she had an employment. Everybody, it's it's really miraculous. Anytime my podcasts are livestream, she has a tendency to figure out what it is. Anyway, just go here with the Mike Tomlin led Steelers. Okay, knocks you out of your survivor pool. Every single time they could be a double digit favorite, they are going to lose that game. But he is the best raw rock coach in the game. And even this year they're four and one as underdogs, They're three
and one as underdogs by more than three points. And remember Pat, and I don't think we can discount this. Cincinnati went up to Pittsburgh early on in the year and spanked them a little bit, right, I mean, they won twenty four to ten. They were embarrassed by that, and since he did some chirpin' afterwards, and you know that Mike Tom was going to remind his guys of that Ben's playing a little better.
You know.
I was surprised actually how decent he looked in that game coming off COVID. But he's playing a little better. The defense really is what's going to make the difference. It's a fate of the Bengals. It's a divisional game. If anything, I think Cincinnati wins this by three points. But I wouldn't mind taking the money line here on these Steelers. So that's where I am. I'm going with them getting four and a half points here on the road. In Cincinnati.
Yeah, you're selling me, Dan. I mean you and Randalls told me last week.
About the setups for Pittsburgh, like take them as a dog, fade them as a heavy favorite. And you know, I took your advice last week against the Chargers, and luckily the back door was open in that game. Yeah, I mean, hell, they almost want it outright at the end. So I'm kind of on board with you. Ni make a really good point about the Steelers defense getting healthier.
TJ. Watt playing obviously would make a difference.
Yes, different for sure.
Yes, And like we have seen, you know, Burrow kind of struggle against pressure. I would say at times so far, if he is a clean pocket, he's fantastic, but he's under a heavy pass rush, like you can disrupt him and force him into some mistake. So yeah, and TJ. Watts, You're not going to have a clean pocket all day if that dude's playing so.
Right, And again, there are question marks at it because you can you know secret the books no more than I do. Of course, they get advanced sort of notice, so it is up in the air to be careful.
But everything I'm reading, and again, Pat, I feel like you and I probably at this point because we've been doing this for a while, Like we have minor people that we know and trust who sort of, you know, can can lean us in the right direction as to what they're thinking necesarily about injuries and things like that. And everything I've seen from people who I trust suggest that they think they're going to get.
All three of these guys back right now.
And it's just to me, it's a completely different in the game, by the way, both teams have to win. But look, whatever is is, you know, the defense is fine for Cincy. I think it played a little bit over its head early in the year. The offense, man, I don't know, like it just it doesn't look cohesive right now, like whatever they're doing on offense. And again they beat the Raiders pretty handily in this one. But
again that's more of a fade at the Raiders. But I do think I think the Steelers win this game out right, really, I honestly do.
So.
I'm gonna sprinkle on the money line as you should with all sort of you know, short dogs here, but again, this is a spot, man, I'm telling you, this is a bet that I really like this week bat and especially at four and a half, which is why I'm doing it. It's in every teaser piece because if they lose by more than ten and a half, I have to rethink my entire outlook here. I'm the Steelers on the Bengals, so I can't see them losing by that much.
So tease them up.
Find another piece, maybe one of our Thanksgiving games, which we'll talk about. I think in a second, Pat, you're going back to Thanksgiving for pick number two?
Is that right?
I am Dan and first as an aside, so my dog is very contentedly gnawing on a bone next year because my wife is away and she can't be watching him. I've got to have him here with me. So if people hear that, that's what it is.
But I don't know if my dog loves this basted bone as much as I love the under in the Dallas Raiders.
Game, which is at a last time I checked, I think it was I got it fifty one.
So it's fifty one at some books, but our consensus line again at betting pros, that's what we do. We have I don't know, twelve fifteen books here that we look at everything. It's technically fifty and a half, Pat, So if that changes anything, let me know.
But it won't change anything, Dan, And I think it was actually at fifty one and a half on Draft Kings yesterday, if I'm not mistaken. So maybe there are some other people who are thinking the same.
It's fifty and a half at DraftKings.
I know, Pat, because spoiler alert, it's part of a teaser, but go ahead.
Yeah, okay, So I mean looking at Dallas in their last four games, they have been twenty points or less in three of the four, the only exception being there forty three to three pasting of the Falcons. The Raiders have scored sixteen points or fewer in three straights. Like the Raiders, as you mentioned a second ago, have just been on kind of a downward trajectory. You know, maybe they are starting to feel the effects of John Gruden not being there calling plays. The offense just hasn't seemed
quite as functional. And Dallas, I mean, we know they're going to be missing their top two wide receivers, which is well, I guess technically I don't know about that, right because they don't Yeah, I mean, so we don't know about CD Lamb yet.
Like it's it's very rare.
As you know, some of my injury people have pointed out, for a concussed player to get cleared, someone who was hurt on a Sunday to get cleared for a Thursdays, it's pretty rare. So I think Lamb is going to be out for this one. Yeah, I think it's going to be not a shootout, and you know, maybe there are going to be some points put up.
Dak Prescott is certainly still capable.
I think that the Cowboys will be able to do business on the ground against the Raiders, as most teams are. But I think the Raiders might struggle to move the ball in this one, and man like, any total fifty or higher just seems like a stretch in this game. So I'm hitting the under pretty hard here.
We joked about it pat last week. It was Chris Raybond, right, friend of the show of both the betting pros on Fantasy Pros side, who had tweeted out that I don't understand why everybody htes unders so much. Unders Are you know you're winning right from the time the game starts like that?
That's something that's true. I agree.
I mean people like to root for something, not against something. But had you not taken this, and had I not been such a coward, I probably would also have sort of taken this as one of my best bets. Yeah, this is a game that screams under to me, like absolutely screams that.
I agree.
I'm not expecting Ceedee Lamb to play.
Now.
There's been the positive sort of discussions here about the fact that like, oh, he's in meetings, he's trending in the right direction. Mike McCarthy is optimistic. He can't clear it that quickly, Like I'll be absolutely shocked here, and that's a huge deal for this offense. Like you know, you're down Amari Cooper, You're down Ceedee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Cedric Wilson, right, I mean I know Dalton Schultz and everything like that. But yeah, that's gonna be tough.
You assume they're gonna rely on the ground game here a lot, because they should win this game pretty handily. And again they're seven and a half point favorites, I think, and the Raiders offense pat I don't know why. I mean, you see it since I've lost Henry Ruggs, Like without somebody stretching the field and opening it up underneath. They're just unable to really, you know, move the ball cohesively
each and every week, so they're just struggling. Maybe that changes right now, maybe they finally get you know, Deshaun Jackson involved, but you know, absent that, it is tough to see them putting up too many points. I love it and you we talked about it. I said, Pat giving the teaser piece, and you were like, I love the under. So it is partially what I've done. And actually it's not one of our best bets, Pat, But I'm wondering what you think of the spread because it's seven and a half.
That too much for me.
But I did do a same game teaser here where I tease the total up to fifty six and a half and I'm taking the under, and then I tease Dallas down. It's hard for me to see that with or without cde Lamb. It's really hard for me to see Dallas losing this game at home on Thanksgiving where they're now being a little pressured here by the Eagles. They've got to come out with it, so I tease them down to one and a half. What do you think about that? Out of curiosity about that, two teams teaser.
I like teasing it down. I agree, I have a hard team hard time seeing Dallas dump one to a reeling Raiders team at home on Thanksgiving. It just doesn't seem like something that could happen. I think it's a little too tall to bet it as is. You know, it's probably just going to be a stay away from me because I think the perception, and maybe this leads to the high total, is that you know, normally we can count of the Raiders defense being hot garbage juice,
and that really hasn't been the case this year. I mean, they're not great against the run, They've been pretty good against the past. I mean they've got Max Crosby play like a young JJ Watts at left end, so.
And they can actually cover a little bit.
So that's part of why I think the total is so high, and maybe part of why I think the spread is so high.
I don't know.
It's just hard to get a read on the how spunky the Raiders are going to be for this one, because they.
Are going in the wrong direction. For sure.
I don't think they're a horrible team, but right now it's just the trending. The trend for them is downward and I don't know. I just can't get on either side of this one at the line. But if you tease it down, I like that. I like it tease down to just Cowboys way basically.
And I think further to your point on the total, by the way, is the fact that, like what did we see last week? We saw Joe Mixon with you know, thirty rush attempts, you know, and I think you've got both backs here in spoiler alert, I may be going there for one of my props. That's something that I think you're going to see again. I think you're going to see a lot of running the ball, running leads the clock, leads two more under. So yeah, I like it.
I know nobody wants against scoring on Thanksgiving, but I do like that one for sure, Pat. And the first one on the Bears lines on a little luke warmont, but that one I am I am higher on. So for my second bet, Pat, I was actually going to take the Broncos getting three from the Chargers, but it moved to two at three, but it moved to two
and a half. I don't like it that much. I do think this is a little bit of a letdown spot here for the Chargers after that big win, and you've got the Broncos at home off bye, but again at two and a half, I don't like it as much. So I'm going to a much much uglier game, and I'm going to bet against my own team, the Jets, and I'm going to take the Texans, who are now
under a field goal. Was a field goal earlier, but it's not two and a half on the consensus lines over at bettingpros dot com to the Jets in Houston, pat one Zach Wilson was named the starter.
I like this a little bit.
And you put aside what you think of Wilson generally speaking, okay, font online, is that we have seen quarterbacks come back from a long layoff and just experience rust and I think you're going to see that from Wilson here, Like, regardless of how good he is this year or what he's going to be doing, I think he's going to be rusty in this game, and I think the Jets are going to struggle to put up points. There's no
Michael Carter in this game. That does hurt. He was obviously a huge point of sort of emphasis of this offense, Jets are thirty first and overall dboa the Texans are at home. I realized, like you could say, it's the matchups, and last week the Titans heavy had injuries and the weather was bad. But they now have six sacks and ten turnovers in their last two games. The defense playing a little bit better. I think, to Rod Taller is
lead's gonna play it safe. The Jets have covered the spread twice this season, Pat, neither of times on the road. Texans are actually three and one against spread at home. The Jets defense, which was one, sort of like hanging in there, I'll say generously, Pat, in the beginning of the season. They are no longer hanging in there. They are just kind of, you know whatever. So I think the Texans win this game if it's underfield goal. God, so gross, and I can't believe that this wound up
being one of the bets. I wanted to say. Pat is leaving Ja's all right on the live stream, very concerned about his dog.
Everyone you know, he's very, very worried about it.
Sorry, Pat, I'm teasing you about the fact that you're so concerned about your dog and any noise that you hear from your dog that you just left the show in the middle of my rant. But that's fine, It's okay. So I am taking the Texans to a half. God, what's going on with the dog, Matt, What do you have?
Well, he got the bone next to a plastic NERF gun launcher, so that was gonna make some some more substantial noise than just gnawing, So I had to move the NERF gun.
Fair.
It's a fair point. So pat Texans laying two and a half against the Jets.
Yeah, I'm with you, Dan on the quarterback thing is a big thing. I mean it's like basically starting anew for Jack Wilson after the long layoff. And yeah, I mean a quarterback. We have seen it Russell Wilson. Uh yeah, look at how he struggled in his first two games back and not as long a layoff either or is it about the same I can't remember about the same. Yeah, So I agree with you, and I think the Houston defense is actually a little bit better than people.
Maybe give them credit for the one wild card here.
I think that could hurt you, as if to Rod Taylor throws three interceptions like that's the one possibility. But you know, if I was betting, if it was a prop bet on interceptions Wilson versus Taylor, I would definitely be betting Wilson with more interceptions in this.
Gay so and again, we saw Taylor, by the way, in that first game back after his long layoff against Miami, look absolutely terrible, right, and that's it. And he looked at least a little more competent last week. And he has the rushing ability which can extend drives and everything like that. So again, I think they can play conservatively here. They can beat the Jets pretty easily with Zach Wilson
in their center. Hope I'm wrong from a personal perspective, so I can just enjoy, you know, watching the Jets maybe squeak out one of their you know, three or four victories on the year. But I do think the Texans at home with Wilson's first came back cover this short spread. So I will take it with them laying two and a half. Again, it's been bouncing back and forth between three and two and a half, So if I see it at two and a half, that's when
I would strike it. Set three. I'm going to stay with last batpat.
What he got Okay, so I've got the Rams plus one against my beloved Green Bay Packers Dan, and it's just i'd like, it's so injury related this one. The Packers are just like decimated now and they keep adding names to the list unfortunately, like all these not just like regular starters, like blue chip guys. Elton Jenkins is a big one because they are already without David Baktiori. We found out this week that Baktiari had gone undergone an initial clean up surgery, which is why his return
has been delayed. And I mean he did tear his acl last New Year's Eve Day, I think, so maybe not a surprise that it's taken him so long, but man, without Jenkins and boch Tiari like the two anchors of you know, maybe the best left side of an offensive line in football.
Rashan Gary not sure about his status. He hyper extended his elbow.
Against two weeks ago, did not play last week in the loss of the Vikings. And that's huge because he has turned into, you know, one of the premier defensive players in the league. And Aaron Jones remains out too, so I'm not as big a deal. I mean, aj Dillon is terrific, but boy, they're just so under man and then you've got the Rams coming in fresh Like, I think it's going to be really hard for the
Packers to win that game. I know they're undefeated in Lambeau this year, but you know, give me the money line, bet, I think, rather than the one point. Sure, yeah, you know I'll always take the money line over the one point.
Well you might as well.
I mean, like, I mean, there was a tie, there was a tie obviously with the Steelers in the lines. Yeah, the money line is you know, minus one ten anyway, so it doesn't really matter. But yeah, I agree with you on this one. Again.
The offensive line.
Injuries for the Packers just really tough to overcome at this point. And you have a limited Aaron Rodgers, who I mean, he's fantastic and he threw for over three hundred yards four touchdown passes in those last game. But still against that defense. You've got Von Miller now fully sort of you know, ready to go and integrated. You've got Obj now sort of you know, another week to sort of get acclimated to the offense. Yeah, I agree with you. I do think the Rams win this game.
One of my favorite bets another one that I teased up. I'd love for it to get to one and a half, so I can get it over seven and a half. But I'll take them at seven because I do think that you know, worst case scenario, they you know, they the Packers eke out a squeaker here. But I like the Rams to win this game. So I am backing you as well on that one, and I will try you. I'm going to take a total here for my last bet,
it's the Titans and the Patriots under forty four. You've just got two really solid defenses here in this game. The Titans are twelfth in defensive DVOA. Like, I don't know when that happened, right, their their defense was kind of something that we felt like we could pick on earlier in the season. But the Pats obviously have a great defense there second to DVOA defensive DVOA.
They both run the ball a time.
The Titans run the ball forty six percent of the time, the Pats forty five percent of the time. Both that's top ten in the NFL. They both play slow. The Titans are twenty third in neutral situation pace of play. The Pats are twenty fourth in neutral situation base of play. So this is going to be a slow, methodical, run heavy game and the Titans are gonna have no weapons. I'm not expecting aj Brown to suit up in this one.
I know he had negative X rays, but even if he does, they're just gonna double them, you know, give safety help over at the top. Anyway, So you look at the games without Derrick Henry for the Titans forty four points against the Rams, forty four points against the Saints, thirty five points against the Texans, and I realized two good defensive teams, but they'll have one here as well. And then the Texans game was you know, in the rain.
But this is just a slow defensive game, Pat, I don't feel I don't have good like feeling on who's going to.
Cover the six and a half points spread.
But it does strike me as just a game that's not gonna, you know, involve a ton of points here, a lot of running slow. So forty four is not like a huge total or anything like that. It's on the lower side. But I do think this one comes.
Under Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the side. I was going to ask which way, because yeah, same here. I mean, I've got New England in a survivor pool where I'm kind of limping along and don't have that many options left. But like, I don't feel great about them covering that biggest spread, especially against a Titans team that's been.
Kind of a giant slayer this year.
So not that you know, we consider the Patriots giants yet, but it's it's kind of interesting they're playing so well. But yes, the formula for them playing so well is defense and ball control and you know, keeping everything sort of manageable, like in Belichick is doing a great job with that.
No surprise there.
You mentioned that both teams are like in the bottom eight or bottom nine as far as pace. I think the under is a pretty good play here.
Yeah, and again something flukey can always happen, but this strikes me as a game I'm going to be shocked given just the injuries, especially for the Titans, if this game goes over.
So I do like that.
All right, let me recap very quickly, pat you like the getting three against the Bears, the Raiders and the Cowboys under. We'll call it fifty and a half right now. It was fifty one earlier and the Rams getting one from the Packers. I like the Steelers getting four and a half from the Bengals, the Texans laying two and a half to the Jets, and the Titans, and the
Pats under forty four points. So here's what I'd like to do now, Pat, Let's quickly run through the remaining spreads, talk about whether or not we have a lean one way or another, we like any of them. Then let's get to some player profits for the Thanksgiving game.
Sound good to you?
Sounds great?
Dan, dog under control?
He is.
He's still gnawing very contentedly so, and I think he would be for the next four hours if I let him.
Your dog is better than mine, So we said, Pat, that for the Cowboys laying seven and a half here on Thanksgiving, that's just a stay away for you. You think the Cowboys win, but you don't confidently feel it's going to be by seven and a half point correct?
Correct, Yeah, I'm.
Gonna agree with you. Again.
This is a spot where I tease him down if you can find a teaser piece. Again, I've done it in the same game, and I've teased the total up. But I've also done it with the Steelers getting four and a half, moving that up to ten and a half, So that's also where i'd go the Bills. This spread is moving here, Pat, it was six, it was four originally. My guess is because the running back injuries. Maybe I don't know, or maybe money's coming in here on the Bills. It's moved to six. Now it's six and a half
as of this moment for the consensus spread. That's a big number. I do think the Bills win this game, Pat, but six and a half against the Saints in New Orleans, I don't know, it feels like something I might want to avoid.
You know, I'm probably gonna play the Bills for like maybe a one unit play here. Like I don't know if we can still call the Bills defense great after what Jonathan Taylor did to them last week, but like this is still a really good put.
It this way.
I don't know how this New Orleans offense is going to move the ball against the Bills. It just seems like not only having Trevor Simmy in a quarterback, likely not having Alvin Kamara, perhaps not mark ingram at running back either, but like no Ryan Ramcheck at right tackle. I mean, he didn't practice again, yesterday Arren Armstead, but I think got a limited.
Practice in that would help.
But like if Armstein Ramcheck were both out against the Bills, it would be pretty hopeless. So I have to take the Bills in this. And plus you have to know they're going to be smarting after what the Colts did with them last week pretty much just embarrassed them.
So yeah, I don't know what Sean.
Payton could possibly have his up his sleeve to get more than you know, seventeen to twenty points on the board this week against Buffalo Gas.
Can you explain to me, Pat why they don't go to Taysom Hill and just try something like they went to him last.
Year when we were all like what are you doing?
Right?
Why they won't go to him this year?
And especially after that big extension, right, which is weird obviously the extension, but still why not make that switch, especially in this game?
Yeah, I don't know.
I mean, like, looking at the numbers, they haven't been that awful for Simmon, at least not in the first two games.
But it's all been garbage time.
It's all He's doing everything in the fourth quarter after the Saints are hopelessly out of yeah, and you give, like Taysom Hill all this money to just be the uh you know. It's and I'm totally getting ahead of myself here, Dan, It's why I kind of like Taysom Hill is in any time touchdown.
All right, well, all right, we're gonna get that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I love it.
I love it.
All right, Let's go to the Falcons on the road against the Jaguars. Falcons playing one. Any thoughts on this?
Yeah, I mean, I'm probably gonna put a little.
Something on Jacksonville in this because I think Jacksonville has actually like an NFL caliber, credible defense and Atlanta is just even coming off the I don't like betting against teams coming off bad, embarrassing losses if they're good enough to do something about it. I don't think Atlanta is good enough to do something about it.
All right, to stay away from me, But I do think that I might go with the Falcons if I had to go somewhere. It depends on if Corduo Patterson is back for this one, which obviously we need to wait and see, because without it there forget about it their offensivest. But I just can't back the Jaguars I don't care whether or not all the sort of metrics say I should back the Jaguars, which basically does say every single game. I just can't do it with Ervin Meyer.
Interesting one here, Pat Bucks visiting the Colts laying three. I mean, Colts coming off that giant win against Buffalo.
What do you think?
Yeah, this is where I start to sound like a broken record den saying that I don't have a lien on you knowpe near these games, and you know it's a betting podcast, and like, saying that you don't have a lien on a lot of games is kind of a bad way to go about doing things. But I really don't I mean, the line seems pretty spot on.
You know, if I if I were going to bet this game at all, I would probably go with the home dog here. But you know, with Tampa coming off the Monday.
Night er, sort of a short work week, you know, presumably they're getting a little extra time off for the holidays too.
But yeah, I just I don't have a strong lean in this one.
So I want to make it clear in my opinion, at least, if you're on a betting podcast, there is nothing wrong with saying you don't have a lean on something because as much as people might want to bet every single game, and we have, I guess it's come on the show Ian McMillan, who is doing just that this entire year, God bless him, but that's not what we do. Like we pick our spots. And I agree with you, I actually have no feel for this game. I have no idea how that this game is going
to play out. The Bucks have been a little disappointing, and I know they beat up on the Giants, but I'm not really taking anything from that. And the Colts have been playing extremely, extremely well not it does sound like B to A and may come back in this one, Pat and that's gonna be. That's gonna be the irresistible Forrest meets the Immovable object over there with Jonathan Taylor. But it's something where I just I'm gonna watch the game. I'm gonna enjoy it, watch the game without any sort
of betting. I'm not gonna watch this one, but I probably I'm gonna also sit out from a betting perspective. That's the Panthers visiting the Dolphins, and the Panthers are laying now one and a half. I think it was one earlier when Joe and I looked at it, so any thoughts on that now?
Another one where I pretty much just threw my hands up in a pool where we have to pick out of your game against the spread. I took Carolina just thinking they maybe keep the Cam Newton mojo rolling.
But you know, that's about all I could pin anything on, and it.
Just didn't feel like a didn't feel like a real confident pick.
Yeah, it's I would go with the Panthers if I had to go somewhere. I don't, thankfully, I would just because of the defense. They are still again that that seventh playoff spot in the NFC is going, it's it's really made things fun because every team is basically involved
in it. And obviously the Panthers have have gone all in on this season, you know, given the trade for Gilmour and everything they're sort of doing, and I think the defense is going to be enough here to you know, have them eat out a win in at one and a half. I would go there, but again, not somewhere I want to go if I can avoid it. We talked already about the Jets and the Texans, and the Texans are laying two and a half points. I will say again, I see a couple of threes at points
bet and fox bet again. I don't like it there, but the consensus sign of betting pros is two and a half. It is where I would go. The Pats are laying the six and a half to the Titans. We both agreed, it's just a game that we kind of want to stay away from entirely other than the total correct Yeah, okay, very good. The Eagles pat are visiting the Giants laying three and a half here. I think it was three when it opened up. After the game on Monday night it went to three and a half.
What do you think?
Eagles are rolling? Giants look like in disarray. But it's a divisional game. Seems too easy to pick the Eagles almost.
It does seem too easy, And it feels like I'm walking into a snare trap here day. But so maybe I'll be hanging upside down by my feet after I bet the Eagles on this one. But that's kind of it momentum. I mean, the Eagles have been they've been getting it done with this bizarrely conservative game plan. I mean, it's totally working. They're playing Ravens.
Ball basically, and it's worked very well for them.
Their defense is credible, and the Giants just look completely.
Lost on offense on Monday Night. It's worriesome.
Yeah, you know, how soon can they circle the wagons after getting rid of Jason Garrett? You know, Jason Garrett may it may cure some ailments, but not everyone. And Daniel Jones just look terrible on Monday night. My goodness. So I'm gonna take the Eagles here, even though it feels suspect like I am walking into a dark alley.
For certain, if I had to go one way, it would be the Eagles. But it definitely just feels like the books are saying, go ahead, take the Eagles.
You know you want to take the Eagles. Take the Eagles.
And that always scares me a little bit enough where I will second guess it. But again, if I'm in a pool like yours where I have to go somewhere, I've got to go with the Eagles. But again, divisional game home dog seems too easy. It gets me a little worried with it. But yeah, I would go that way if I had to, just because that seems right. I mentioned Pat the Broncos and the Chargers. The spread is two and a half here with the Broncos as home dogs. Any lean at all on this game ever.
So slightly too the home dog with the Broncos, but not one that I'm probably going to play.
I think that's just who I picked in that pool.
Yep, I agree, I had to pick it, I'd still go Broncos two and a half, But you know, below three, it's a game I want to stay away from. Vikings are visiting the forty nine Ers. The consensus line is three. Oddly enough, my book is at three and a half on DraftKings, which usually I always feel like the spot I'd want to go is always on the other way with DraftKings, they're always I feel like a little sharper than what I want. But at three and a half, that's mildly intriguing there with the Vikings.
But what do you think about it? At three?
That half point would make a world of difference, considering that every game the Vikings play is a you know, one possession game. Yeah. I've got some friends up in Minnesota who have had years taken off their lives by this Viking season so far, and getting the hook there would be fantastic. I'm hoping I can find it somewhere because I'd like to bet the Vikings at three and a half. At three, I'll be a little less enthusiastic. May put a little something on them anyway, though.
Yeah, I do think it's worth it.
And again, shan you know Kyle Shanahan not he's a little Mike Tomliny. You kind of want to back him as a dog and maybe not so much as a favorite in this one. So yeah, it is hard attach season. And again that's basically it. There are a couple of random strays out there at three and a half with DraftKings, but for the most part it's at three. So yeah, if you get three and a half, I'd be willing to go to the Vikings. I'll probably stay away from
it just because, man, I hate backing Kirk Cousins. It makes my heart hurt. Ravens are at home here here Pat against the Browns. Consensus line is three and a half. That MGM is at four our sponsor, but it's at three and a half for the most part out there. Weird game, Pat, I mean, you've got Kareem Hunt was just designated to return from I r as was Jack Conklin. Don't know whether or not they're going to be able to suit up here. You've got the illness concerns for
the Ravens with Lamar Jackson and Markis Brown. I don't know pat home Ravens laying three and a half.
Well, you know, I'm in that pool, Dan, where Michael Beller's pool where we thirty two of us are are drawn team before the season and half to bet that team against the spread every week.
And I drew the.
Ravens this week, clipping along at four and six with them. So whatever I pick for this game, you probably want to go the opposite way, a game that I will not be betting myself. But I did pick the Ravens at home. I always have a hard time going against the Ravens at home, and that's kind of hurt me. I don't think they're great ats in home games this year, So yeah, and I mean it is worrisome the Cleveland is getting healthier again. I mean, Conklin would be a
big deal for them, and Hunt too. I mean to give them that two headed attack, which they need because their passing game is not very potent.
So slight lean towards.
The ravens here, but certainly not a recommendation to all of our friends out there.
And again, designated to return doesn't mean, of course, that they're going to come back this week necessarily. It just means that they practice, you know, twenty one day windows open, so so hopefully they get back. Alex El, who is here with us, is asking what do you think about the total?
Pat? He likes the under. It's forty five right now.
Now what's interesting, Pat, is this is all over the place from what I can see, And my guess is it's because of the health considerations. Forty five is consensus, but it's all the way up to forty six and a half at bet MGM, it's at forty six at FanDuel, it's forty five at DraftKings. So it's a little all over the place right now. Consensus at forty five, but you can talk about it if you wanted forty six and a half.
Any lean on that.
Yeah, we also have to take over unders for tiebreaker purposes in that pool, and I did take the under in this, so I'm with Alex on that.
One way to go, Alex and Yeah, I'd be inclined to agree, just because of the you know how the Browns offense is playing right now in the Ravens sort of being a little up and down, and again they run the ball a lot, even if it's less than previous seasons. Last one Monday Night Football. If you bet this game, you are an incredible human. The Seahawks are getting one in Washington right now. Any thoughts on it whatsoever?
Pat, No, I completely threw my hands up in the air when I saw the line on this one, Dan like, I mean, I might have actually flipped a coin to make a pick in that point spread pool.
On Man, this is correct.
I like it. Okay, there you go. Let's get to some props, Pat. So here's what you can do. By the way, guys, if you are here with us, if you're listening to this, you hopefully know this right now if you follow us. But at Betting Pros, we have the prop bet sheet sheet.
Okay.
What that does is it compares the available lines in the market to consensus projections, which we have, and it sort of recommends based on the differences between the two.
It's a great way just to frame it.
You can sort by game, you can sort by player, you can sort buy stack whatever you want to do.
So it's a really good way to do it.
Uh, patit. Let's start with the first game, Chicago against Detroit. Do you have a player prop that you were eyeing in this game?
Yeah?
So, Darnelle Mooney over fifty six and a half is pretty compelling considering that he got sixteen targets with Alan Robinson out last week. Sure, if we've gotten definitive word on Robinson, but I suspect he is going to be out again.
Yep, if he's in.
Does that matter to you, by the way, because I don't think it would for me. I think I'd still take the over on it.
Yeah, I mean, like, is he that much more of a threat to Mooney's target load than Marquise Goodwin is?
Probably not?
So Yeah.
I just plus, we know that the Detroit secondary isn't good. They haven't given up a lot of passing yards simply because it's really easy to move the all on them on the ground. But I still like Mooney as sort of the de facto alpha receiver here. Fifty six and a half seems like kind of a low bar to clear. So that's that's my first one.
I do love it, and actually what I'm doing PAT is for fantasy purposes. I do projections for every fantasy relevant player. Again, these are very early projections which I refined throughout the week and again this Thursday game, so I am just looking it up. I will say that on our prop at Chichi's shows you what the best available book is for these prop and actually at FANDLE it's fifty five and a half, so you can get a little bit extra even on that as opposed to fifty six and a half.
But I am right there with you. I am looking what I.
Haven't projected at and I have him projected at sixty three point two receiving yards PAT. So there you go, we are there with the over very good. And again I've mentioned this, but PAT is basically probably the most accurate Fantasy rancor for like a decade. So you have a pretty good bet here on player props. All right, any other ones that you're eyeing in this game, PAT that you like one way or another on it? Before I get a couple, I guess I can go through.
Go ahead.
Generally, I'm not a big anytime TD better.
I think there you don't get great odds generally, but because this is going to be such an unsightly game, and because I need action to make it interesting to me, Dan, you know, and so I have something to watch instead
them talking to my family on Thanksgiving. I think I'm going to take the anytime TD and Cole combats, Okay, yes, and I just you know again, sort of paucity of target options for the Bears with Robinson outs and Comet is that big body when they get close to the pen zone and then one just I mean, this is a fade of the Bears offense. I like inn anytime Lions defensive touchdown at plus six fifty, Oh wow, I could very much see a pick six, a fumble, recovery something,
So you know, plus six fifty. I'm not confidently predicting one by any means, but I kind of like those odds. And I'm gonna put a little little something down on that.
All right.
I like it, all right, getting a little crazy here, I will say that Alex l who's also here again, you know, a bunch of people are here with us asking about stuff. He did ask earlier on the Cole comet, so you like the touchdown, but he did ask on the receiving yards, which I'm looking at right now, looks like thirty five and a half. I don't really I think betting cole Comet receiving yards Pat is something that's
too scary for me to really go near. Even though the projection again on our prop Betchichi does have him for forty I believe forty point seventy nine, so it would clear that number. But what do you think any lean on that.
I kind of like it, you know, again, I think I'm a limited number of target options for the Bears against a pretty soft defense, So I do kind of like it.
Okay, so I do.
So I do want to ask about the running backs, Pat, because I do think that running backs are sort of where it's at. The line keeps moving up, by the way, and the one thing with player prop lines, Pat, is they move quickly. I mean, at least as far as what I can see right. There are a lot of times I like the line. I look and it's like four or five yards different the next morning when I look.
Montgomery has a huge line right now, Pat. Now, of course he torched the Lions in their first game sort of early on, but it's eighty and a half is the total that's like, I would love to find a way to take the over on a daved Montgomery rushing yards prop. But that line is I don't want to go under it because I do think there's a scenario where they just run all day. But it's I gotta stay away from that one. What do you think?
Yeah, I mean the one thing that gives me pauseive like I thought that was looking like an under two is that the Lions have been a massive run funnel defense. The opponents are running against them. I'm basically fifty percent of their offensive snaps. So you know, unpresumably that the Bears, with Andy Dalton that quarterback, have incentive to be run
heavy themselves. Plus, now that Montgomery's been back for a little bit, I think they might feel a little bit more comfortable giving him twenty two to twenty three carries in this one.
So it's a stay away.
But yeah, that is I definitely raised an eyebrow on myself when I saw that number.
I can tell you one that I like here if we look on the other side of the running backs, I probably don't love it enough to go crazy with it or anything like that, But you know, the under swift is at sixty five and a half rushing yards. The Bears aren't that great necessarily against the run. They've got injuries of course with their run stuffers here, and we've seen it now with Dan Campbell Patt we talked about in the Fantasy Show. I know only got I
believe fourteen carries in this last game. But obviously they're going to commit to the run. Not as much of the passing downs work here for DeAndre Swift through the air, but a lot on the ground. That's what they want to do. In a game where the spread is three, you have to assume that Swift is probably going to see upwards of fifteen carries.
Here in this game, so long as he stays healthy.
Jamal Williams did in factor in that much, so I kind of lean the over here at sixty five and a half for his rushing yards.
What do you think of that?
Yeah, you may have talked me into that. And we have seen this abrupt shift from sort of the Alvin Kamara type usage. Well, actually the shift has kind of mirrored the Alvin Kamara usage from last year, where it was, you know, doing significant damage as a pass catcher and sort of limited to maybe twelve to fifteen carries a game to the Kamara of early this year where he was just getting these massive twenty twenty five carry games and not so much usage in the passing game. That's
how things have moved with Swift too. And you know that that Steelers game where he had what thirty three carries yep, last week over over twenty the way things have been trending. I do think the over there is a pretty good looking play.
I mean, it does seem pretty clear when the game is close, Pat, they're gonna try to lean into the run, as they probably should because they've got absolutely nothing going on in the passing game. So yeah, that's one that I was really eyeing the over sixty five and a half for DeAndre Swift. All right, let's get to the Raiders visiting Dallas. Any props that you were eyeing in this one?
Yeah, just one, and it's a sort of a strange one. But I sort of like Josh Jacobs over twenty and a half receiving yards.
Yeah, I mean for recent recent games, Pat, I mean recent games have sort of you know, he's been heavily involved in the.
He has his last five games. The receiving yardage twenty nine, thirty nine, nineteen, twenty and twenty four, so he's beat it three out of five games and the two misses were by one and a half and half a point. You know, know, Henry Ruggs, They've got to go somewhere with the ball here, and maybe more important, Jalen Richard was a healthy scratch last week. That might be one of those where I wait to bet this until I see the inactives and see whether Jalen Richard is active.
But they have made more of a concerted effort post Gruden. It seems like to get Jacob's back involved in the passing game, and we know he has the skill set to do it right. And that's been kind of dismaying for these Josh Jacobs investors in fantasy that he's just been this between the tackle sledgehammer and has not been allowed to show off the versatility we know he has.
Yeah, I mean, it does seem like, you know, the defensive philosophy right now is take away Darren Waller and you know, if you got to go underneath, do it. But they'll let that happen. Yeah, you know what, Pat, I didn't even think about it. I didn't even think about it, and I think that that's a good one. Talk me into it.
I love it. Okay, that is a good one.
By the way, I will say, just if you're here and you ask a question, I'm going to put it up. This is a big one, Pat, for the last game that we missed. Michael Fuller wants to know whether we like plus money Kiro Santos over one and a half field goals undraftings. Look, you get plus money, I'm okay with it. You're indoors, you know it's fine with me. You really really gotta love betting props if you are going in here and betting over unders on field goals made.
But any thoughts on.
That Pat Michael might have.
He might be onto something here, because I mean, are we going to bet on Andy Dalton the convert touchdowns when they get it into the red zone? Like tending to fade Andy Dalton in those situations? Oh yeah, Plus we know, uh, the weather's not going to be a factor. I'm kind of with my he might have talked me into that one.
I like that one.
Actually, I hadn't thought about it whatsoever, Michael. If I'm being honest, I did not consider kicker props, but yeah, you know what and on DraftKings, I'm gonna I'm gonna trail you with that, Michael, So make sure to hit us up on Twitter if we hit that one, because I do like it. You're write in a controlled environment. And yeah, receiving arts for Jacob's on Fando, it's nineteen and a half, Thatt, What is that the line that you saw as well? Or do you have a worst line?
I don't. I don't have it in front of me, Dan, Sorry, okay.
No, no, no, whatever your line was, That's why I didn't know what you took the over at Oh.
Wait, wait wait, I'm sorry.
Yeah, the Jacob's line.
Oh, the Jacobs line twenty and a half. Yeah, so sorry, I thought you were talking about the Santos line. My bad, bad.
Now, if I thought you had the Santos line at your disposal, Pat, you would be the regular co host of this podcast, because I don't know too many people who have it.
I was not expecting that.
No, I meant the Josh Jacobs line again, because what on the prop beat cheet Chi, what shows you is the best of alb a line in the market per book so at Fandals actually nineteen and a half. So that's even better if you can bet on fandle even a little bit more of an edge anything else.
Yeah, let me add one more, Dan, and I know that our the betting sheet loves this one. Is the Derek Carr over to sixty eight and a half. It just seems kind of low. I mean, he's six and four against that number this year. Maybe it's because he's zero and two on his last two. The weird thing is, wait, what did I say? I said two hundred and sixty eight and a half. That's what it was at yesterday on DraftKings. Now it's down to two sixty four and
a half. It's four it's two sixty three and a half on Fantoms.
Oh my god, So it's moved down five yards since.
Yeah, that works.
And again Pat, that's not unusual.
I mean you and I bet props a lot, and I take a pretty close look at them now when I get into it, because I have to recommend them always. On Sunday, I will recommend things on Saturday night. Pat, on Saturday night, I will make my list for our Sunday morning livestream, and it will move four yards for running backs six yards for passing yards like they move pretty significant, right.
It doesn't take a lot to move these lines.
Not at all, not at all, So you are right. So yeah, our propat chi Chie, that is the one that they like a lot. They haven't projected for two ninety four, so you agree with this. Let me pull up my so because I you know, Pat, I don't know, man, the Raiders often scares me man with the passing offense a little bit.
Let me look at my projection. But tell me why you like that one.
Uh well, it's good just because it's a low bar for a guy who I mean, Car is what top. I know he's top five and in passing yards per game at one point I think he was number two. I don't know if he's still there after two kind of slowish games, but yeah, I mean we know they're not gonna they like they don't have the running game to just lean on the run the entire game against the Cowboys, like.
They've they've got to take to the air here.
And you know, even though they don't have that vertical threat with Rugs no longer in the lineup, like, I.
Still think Car can get there. Yes, yeah, And plus.
I mean we talked about the Raiders being you know, deserved underdogs in this game. Yeah, so we are guessing that it's probably going to be a past friendly game script.
Yeah, I agree, and I do think that the fact that they're you know, I want to take a a rushing prop over for the Cowboys for one of them, but it's Zeke's so banged. I mean, he's Roger sixty and a half. Pat, I feel like that's an over. But I don't feel good about his health, Like I feel like he's always constantly leaving. He obviously had a little bit of an ankle thing last time, and he came in, so I could see Tony Poller going over his thirty nine and a half.
But I just I don't feel that comfortable with it overall.
Do you No, Yeah, it's as you mentioned, It does feel like we should be taking some sort of over on the Cowboys rushing props and it just but like I can't do it on Zeke knowing who's banged up.
Yeah, I agree, all right, any other one from this game? You want to move to the final one?
Yeah, let's go to the final one.
Bills at the Saints. What do you like here? Pat?
I like that Taysom Hill anytime touchdown then at plus five hundred, and especially with the uncertain injury status of Camara and Ingram, like just one way for them to punch the ball in perhaps, And really that's about it. I'm not loving the prompts in this game.
Yeah, that's a great one. Actually, I really really like that one. I'm the one that I'm eyeing a little bit. And again our prep at Chichi does not list this is great. It basically has it right on projections. I lean over on Josh Allen rushing yards and part of it is it's thirty two and a half for him. And part of the reason why I do pat is because you know, you hear all this coming out of Buffalo and they're like, you know what, we've got to
take care of it, Like we don't. We don't have to go crazy, we won't have to take deep shots like we have to avoid turnovers, especially against the Saints that don't have an explosive offense.
To me, that strikes me is when Alan.
Feels like he is in or he feels like it's a tight window, He's not going to take the chance in this game.
He's just going to take off and run. We just saw Jalen.
Hurts absolutely destroy the Saints right from a rushing perspective. So again, it's not one that our Propat chi Chie necessarily likes.
It doesn't have an edge.
It has over by point zero six rushing yards, which is fine, but I lean that way. Pat Taysom Mill scoring touch actually is a great call, and it's now my favorite prop of that game. But I do lean if anything, Josh Allen over rushing yards thirty two and a half.
Yeah, that makes sense to me, especially after the Jalen Hurts blow up last week.
Yeah, I think just everything sort of fits for it. All right, that's it for our Best Bets podcast. Pat, your dog was great, Thank him for uh for keeping that. Thank you for your job. THEO, good job, THEO. I know it's a very busy time for you. Thank you everybody to join us here today live again on our
YouTube channel. Don't forget to subscribe to YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros, make sure you don't miss our content, and then go by the way to Betting Pros dot com slash helmet where you can win a sign Saque Barkley helmet just for subscribing just to recap our best bets in addition to the props pat you like the Lions getting three from the Bears, the Raiders and the Cowboys under fifty and a half, and the Rams getting
one from the Packers. I like the Steelers getting four and a half from the Bengals in Cincinnati, the Texans laying two and a half to the Jets and the Titans, and the Patriots under forty four.
I hope everybody has a wonderful Thanksgiving.
Enjoy the food, enjoy the family, enjoy the football, Enjoy your Sunday as well. We'll be back as always next week, taking an early look at the Week thirteen NFL lines. As we just fly through the season, I will talk to you though,