Hey there, everybody. Welcome into the Bedding Bros bet About podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris. With me, of course, is Matt Pearl. You can find us on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi and at Sports Talk Matt Matt. How are you as we roll into week eleven?
How am I? I'm a little perturbed at what we what for us, what we've been doing. Yeah, and it just feels like we're constantly getting caught. Yeah, just every week. It's been a frustration where I feel, really, I thought we were gonna be great last week and then we just got a little bit of a you know, just one of those weeks and just it's been a tough year. I mean it's been you know, I look around and I talk to a lot of my friends who are in these contests as well, and it's been a tough year.
So I'm okay, how about that?
Yeah? How are you doing in your other two contests before I get to the Draftking.
I'm three and two every week and all of them. Yeah, like just consistently. And it's not like we're picking the same games either, right, it's three and two, three and two the Bears. We would have been four and one last week with the Bears. I would have been four and one last week in my Westgate Super Contest if the Bears had covered the Bears with the right side. That third down play is giving me nightmares where they ran a screen pass with they kick a field goal
and it's a three point win and we're good. We cover and they run a screen pass that made no sense. They lost four yards and they had to punt. So yeah, just betting on Nick Foles and betting on whether we Bill Laser or Matt Nagy. Just the Bears are now on my off list.
Okay, well, you're not gonna get an argument for me. Watching that game was very, very frustrating. I agree, But let's recap our last week. But before we do, let's do our usual reminders of a couple of things. Number one discord. I don't know how many people are. I try to give an update every week, but it's just growing too fast. Bettingpros dot Com slash chatd is legitimately just a place where you can talk about betting. You can talk about it with us, you can talk about
it with your fellow gamblers. You can talk about any topic really you want. In the sports gambling landscape. You've got different channels and you can win assigned aj Brown helmet that is going on through the end of November. If you just go into Betting Pros dot Com slash chat and go into discord, there is a place where you can enter the contest. It's pretty awesome. The other thing is our prop bet What did I said is prop bet cheat sheet? Right, that's what, Yes, I've nailed
the name. Finally, Betting pros dot Com slash props again. That compares consensus projections to the prop bets that are available in the market, and it ranks them based on how different, essentially the projections are from the lines that the sports book sets. So it's really invaluable if you like prop betting, as you should. All Right, so we're gonna talk about this week. But as Matt said, we went three and two last week, which is basically what
happens every week. We're essentially middle of the road in the contest. So unless we kind of really we go crazy here at the end, it's going to be kind of hard to make up the ground, but it is still possible. We're twenty six and twenty four fifty two percent. We hit them. The only game that we both came into the week really liking, which was the Bucks laying four and a half to the Panthers. That was not
a sweat. We also hit in the Giants getting three and a half from the Eagles and the Rams laying one and a half to the Seahawks. We missed on the one that Matt liked, which was the Bengals getting six and a half from the Steelers. And as Matt said, the one really that I liked and I pushed a little bit, which was the Bears, and they were actually only getting two and a half from the Vikings in our contest, so we would have lost even if they made that fit go. But still, come on, do something.
We got to get some wins. Also, as we'll talk about, we have to play two bye weeks here in the next several weeks. I think, what we've got six weeks left because it goes through Week sixteen, we've got to play two bye weeks, meaning we can't make picks for two of the weeks. That might be this week Matt and I sort of floated the fact that we didn't love the slate this week. We will still go through every game. We will give you whatever picks we are
leaning towards. We may not play them though this week because we do have to take a bye week. And I don't know, Matt, you still thinking that the slate is ugly or in the last few hours have you come around and found some games that you really like?
Still hate it ly? Still till absolutely entirely one hate it? But I mean there are three games I like. You can if you like them, maybe we play it if you want to get into it. I actually like tonight on Thursday Night. We haven't played a Thursday Night before, but I actually like the Seahawks tonight.
Oh I thought you didn't like it at Wait when it is its.
Three and a half. It's three and a half in our contest. I bet it at three, but I think that you know the way, I think it's the seven point win personally for the Seahawks tonight, but that's just my personal opinion on it. I bet it at three. It's down to two and a half. The pros and the Joe's are all over this back and forth. I mean, it's kind of a crazy game watching the money and the line movement as to where it's gone. But I like Seattle tonight to win. I think the primetime games
it's where all the action is. Sunday, Thursday, Monday or all the are the best three games of the week.
Okay, so this is the Seahawks are laying three and a half tonight. Man. Yeah, I liked it at three. I'd certainly like it two and a half. Yes, But you know what, let's talk. We've got we've got We're recording this at six pm on Eastern Standard time, so we've got two hours until the game goes. So we'll talk it through. Let's get to some of the other games, and then let's see maybe I don't know whatever, I'd
be open to it. We could talk about I do think that the Seahawks are gonna win this game, so I'd be open to doing it. But let's start with some of the games here on Sunday or Monday, whatever you want. Let's see if we can agree on any of them. I have to warn you, Matt, We've been doing this now for eleven weeks. I think I generally
know how you feel about certain picks. I will be shocked if you and I are able to come to agreement, because the few that I like, I'm always just like, oh God, Matt's gonna absolutely despise this pick, But go ahead, let's see what you've got. Start us off with your favorite play the weekend.
So there are games that the line movement like, for instance, the line movement right now for Casey and the Raiders is eight eight and a half. That is sign it's six and a half in this contest. Yep, that is an insane number. So while I might be on the Chiefs, sorry on the on the Raiders betting, I think the six and a half off of a bye week under a seven point I don't know how you don't bet Kansas City.
Here, Yeah, that's that's on my list.
I mean, I just I don't know. I don't I think the Raiders can keep this game within ten points, so I'm gonna.
Wait beat them. I beat him the first game.
Well, this is off of a bye it's Andy Reid, it's a pissed off bunch of chief players coming in here, and the Raiders got COVID problems like crazy.
Well I think that is that? Do you think that's what's accounting for the move Matt, The fact that their entire defense is basically COVID.
I think that's a public move. But I think the pro movie is the fact that Andy Reid destroys AFC West opponents, and I think it's just been a ridiculous run. I think it's like twenty four and four or something against the AFC West. So I think that's why it's going in. The COVID problems come in and then but I'm just gonna wait till this thing gets to ten,
and I'm gonna bet the Raiders. But for this contest, my number one when I wrote down at six and a half, the best number play is the Chiefs minus six and a half.
Yeah, I'm gonna for now pencil that one into the extent we're going forward, because I definitely had that one on my list. You know there is I don't think you tell me if it matters in any way to you. But Clyde Edwards Hilaire has missed practice so far this week with a quote unquote illness and they have not
elaborated on it. We you know, you know where your mind goes as soon as you hear illness, So he may he couldn't miss this game, in which case you're looking at Le'Veon bell Now they don't run the ball anyway, it doesn't really matter. They're getting Sammy Watkins back here. But does that matter to you at all if Edward Hilaire were to miss this game?
No, I mean it's the defense. The problem for the Raiders is they get no pressure on the quarterback, so their secondary. I love Abram talking about a bunch of the podcast. I think, you know, getting Arnett back is big. His hand is now recovered, so we can play. I think they're good at covering, they're not great at getting after the quarterback. And I just think they don't have a ton of team speed in the secondary. Their linebackers
are average at best. I think it's a monster Kelsey game, and I think it's an angry bunch of Chief players coming in that want to prove a point. So it's a bad spot for the Raiders to be in. I don't think that victory lap bust controversy is actually a thing, but I do think there is a level of like, this is our division. You guys are a year or two early, and yeah, you caught us at home, we'll come with our pants down, but where we're ready to
go here and we're coming after you. So again, I think the Raiders have the weapons to keep it close in a high scoring game. I love the over in this game, but I think you're going to wind up with a seven point victory for the Chiefs.
Yeah, under a touchdown. It's really hard not to take this game. That's really what it is. As you said, the line's been moving. The consensus line that I'm looking at right now is eight.
Yeah.
I wouldn't be surprised if it goes higher. At seventy one percent are still on the Chiefs in our bed analyzer. So yeah. I mean, if there were a game that I was going to pick that was on my list that I think I thought you might like because of the fact that it's under touchdown, it would be this one. So again, if we do play this week, let's pencil that in. But if you somehow find it anywhere at
six and a half, we'll certainly take that. Now, Matt, what is your dividing line between when you think it goes to the point where you would feel comfortable to Raiders? Is it ten? Is that the line?
Yeah?
Yeah? And other than that, if it's over a touchdown, are you just staying away in between let's say seven?
Yeah, Because I think the difference between eight and ten. The books go very quickly, so you'll see line movements. The books have no problem going from seven and a half to eight and then from eight and a half to ten, so they'll move it fast, and so getting off the key numbers of seven and eight are always the most difficult. Going below sevens even more difficult. So and the most difficult is three to three and a half.
That's the most difficult line movement for the books. So I think if it gets to eight and a half, it'll go ten. It'll just they'll just keep on moving it up and they won't worry about it. Then look at the ten and then they'll stop because then by because it gets to ten and a half, the pros will come in on the raiders and buy it back. So ten's my number.
Got it okay? So this ends the portion of the show where Dan and Matt agree on anything, is what I.
Think, because we'll see hold on all right.
Because the games I'm taking, I just can hear you doing the thing that you go. You have the whole slate available to you.
Head one game in my head that I think that you're gonna do, and I want to my reaction will only be off of one game, and I want to see if you actually take it.
I bet you I'll take it. It's probably not going to be this game because this game is backing an ugly team, but it's kind of the classic by Low in a situation where this team usually comes up big no matter how bad they look. It's the Eagles getting three and a half from the Browns. Now they're in Cleveland. Look the Eagles, I think the match.
Up the number two is on the other side.
Oh, you like the Browns. All right, well, let's talk this through. And I will say immediately what I do when we make a pick is I go to the bed analyzer and I look at which side people are. Now that the consensus spread is three and Wold fel a litle diferently about this game of three, but it's legitimately fifty percent. Fifty percent on the Eagles, fifty percent are on the Browns. So here's here's my line of thinking.
Number one. Historically speaking, I just think this is when you back the Eagles when they look absolutely like maybe the worst team in football, and then you know they like that game against the forty nine ers Matt where we talked ourselves into them getting seven and a half, and I realized that maybe that game was a little bit more on the forty nine ers than it was
necessarily on the Eagles. But you look at a game where they look just dead in the water, which they did, and you just say, Okay, this is probably a spot where they're gonna bounce back. Miles centers looked very good in the game against the Giants. I think he's going to look very good here. They get a lot of pressure. That's the one thing that the Eagles defense really does. They get pressure, they're able to stop the run. I guess the two things that they do. They're able to
stop the run. That's what Cleveland absolutely needs. And they get a lot of pressure. And you know that's where Baker kind of struggles. He doesn't like to get pressure, and that I think the Browns defense is overrated. I think they've got you know, they've had the two games in the wind, They've had a pretty easy schedule. So this is really more of a I bet on the Eagles just when you think they're done. Now, I've caught this already at three and a half. At three, maybe not.
I think they could win it out right, But I do like it when I'm getting a hook, So go ahead and give your side because you like the Browns obviously.
Well, the weather forecast is gonna be not as windy as the previous two, but it's not gonna be nice.
It looks like rain, right, it's.
Gonna be cold. It's gonna be rainy. Ye, it's gonna be breezy. Not not an hour maybe as a time of tape it's Thursday, I thinks can switch in, but yes, the forecast is not the thirty five mile par our sustained wins that we saw last week for them, but it's still weather. Eagles are awful, Wentz is awful.
Yep.
This is who the Browns beat. The Browns beat bad teams. They can't beat anybody good. But if you look at PFF Pro Football Focus, they have the I think of the third ranked offense in the NFL right now. So I mean they could score and they could put the points up on anybody. And that's even with Odell or without Odell, they can put points up on the board. Hooper with the tight end. I just think this is a bad team that you know, the Browns beat bad teams,
and the Eagles are a really really bad team. Yeah, I'm at home laying. I think they win the game by seven.
Okay, all right, so we're gonna stay off it because I'm not. I mean, sometimes there are times where I come in on one side and you talk me into it and I do get your points completely about this to me, again, this is a spot where you're like, the Eagles might be the worst team in football, and then they come up and they come up big, and I really think that this is a game again. I think the Browns are really I mean, they're just I think they're overrated. Man. Without Odell Beckham, I think that
you know, Chubb is great, Kareem Hunt is great. But I think that the Eagles are gonna understand, Okay, let's make Odell Beckham Junior beat us if they can. And they're pretty decent against the run, and I'm just not confident without Odell Beckham Junior that he's gonna be able to do that throwing to Jarvis Landry and Roshard Higgins and Austin Hooper without those guys. So for me, I think this is sort of the classic. All Right, the Eagles are left for dead. Wait a minute, Why did
they just win the game by ten points? I don't understand. So all right, let's go to your next That was your number two.
Under too, Let's get your one and told you I had three.
Yeah, I'm ready.
Casey won Cleveland two, and I think the Ravens are a mess. I got the Titans here. I think the Titans win this game outright. I think they're the better offense. I think they're the better defense. I think there's some real problems right now with Lamar Jackson trying to move the football. And you can make the excuse about the rain and the wind and whatever you want to say about why the Patriots beat the Ravens, but they got
problems in Baltimore. People had them. Colin Cowhard had them going sixteen and oh, okay sixteen and oh this year, there's some real problems in Baltimore. I like the Titans. Whatever point tumber what is it? Six and a half?
Six in six and a half?
Six and a half? Love it? Titans plus six and a half?
Yep, this I'm on this as well. And what's funny is that this wasn't my number one, but I thought about leading with it because I was like, this could this seems like a game that Matt might like. Yeah, And I loved the Ravens. I was willing to back them all the time. And again I kind of talked this into and you heard from some other people into backing them against the Colts. But they didn't look good in that game. Really, you know, they wound up winning it,
and they really really did not look good. And kudos to you, by the way, that was my bad. The Patriots were your last one, but one of the picks that you said you were willing to go with last week against the Ravens, and I thought you were nuts, and that was absolutely the right side. So kudos to you. I mean, not only Matt, are they a mess? But the big thing right like, they're good against the run, and you're like, well, the Titans really need to establish
Eric Henry. No Brandon Williams, and he's not gonna play in this game. He's mispracticed. He is the guy who stops the run. He was the guy last year when he was out. You saw how they were against the run. It's gonna be the same thing this year. Probably. No kalay Is cambell here, no Stanley on the line, Nick Boyle, is kind of actually a sneaky big loss that they've got here going on. So I'm in total agree with
you on this one. Actually, this is week two of your picks right now are two games that were not just I'm okay with it actually on my list. So if we go, we'll go with the Titans plus six and a half against the Ravens. Very good. All right, so you're done now right. You don't have any I.
Have two leans. Those are my yeses. I've got two others that are on my list, and if you say you want it, I'm comfortable with it.
Okay, they I'm not going to list those, I can almost promise you because these are ugly. So just get ready for how ugly this is about to get. How ugly do you think it is to take the Jaguars getting ten and a half from the Steelers?
I like it? What? Yeah? I like it?
I love it? Okay, yeah, I mean.
This is not on my list, but I like it because this is my thinking.
Oh go ahead, no, no, no, you go ahead out then I'll just go ahead.
Historically speaking, over the last four years, YEP teams with one loss taking on a team that's undefeated. They are three and one against the spread. I just think that this is a classic. Pittsburgh needs to lose a game, okay before the playoffs. If you're a Steeler fan, this is the game you can lose. You can lose this game out of nowhere. You get beat, it means nothing. You have a three game lead in the division. You just come off of a big win over the Ravens
a couple weeks ago. This game, this is trap city for Pittsburgh. Here that this is a one win team, wounded animal. If you will back into a corner at home. I'm totally comfortable with It's not one of my picks, but I'm comfortable with Jacksimo.
This is hilarious for it because I thought you were gonna be like, no way, yeah, ten and a half at this point. By the way, I did forget on the Titans and the Ravens. The spread is moving. By the way, it's not only minus five and seventy percent are on the Titans. So just to be clear on that one. Yeah, with this one, I mean, this is like a mike and I wanted to fade. I forget what it was, but I maybe it was against the Ravens.
But it was something where I wanted to fade Tomlin because you know, the Steelers come in and that Cowboys game. That Cowboys game is what Mike Tomlin and the Steelers really are. Mike Tomlin's a very very good coach. I'm not saying anything away from him, but he does not get the team up to play in these games where they are massive favorite. It's especially when they're not in division, right, like this is just and you look at that Cowboys game.
They were like inches away from suddenly being like, oh my god, you just lost to the Cowboys. And don't forget next week is Thanksgiving. They play the Ravens on Thanksgiving, right, so they've got to be looking ahead right in this game. This game cannot mean anything to them. No, I'm not wrong, right, they play the Ravens on thanks Game, Yes, so they've got to be looking ahead at that point to what this are. I'm not saying the Jaguars are gonna win.
I'm just saying ten and a half. You're getting more than the ten. Yeah, I'll take that. Actually, I want to look at where the bed analyzer has that one, because it's now this is actually it leans towards Jacksonville, but not overwhelmingly, so just fifty three percent. But yeah, this is a game I feel I don't know, man, I feel pretty comfortable with this one. So Okay, we've got we've got three that we're talking about. Let's go
to your next one. That you don't absolutely your lean that you don't despise Colts.
I've been so wrong on the Colts this year. You've liked the Colts a lot this year? Yeah, what about what about Indie this week?
So the spread is two and a half, laying two and a half to the Packers.
Yep.
I don't hate it. I don't hate it. I don't know that I don't have a good lean on it. I will say that Devontae Adams has missed practice so far this week with an angle injury. Now they're getting bizarred back, but their their whole persona is different if they don't have DeVante Adams.
Yep.
And the Colts are off a mini bi I'm a little worried that they might be flying high after that.
But so here's so, here's here's what I've been talking to some people about. And I don't know how you biden into conspiracy theories, But have you seen the latest one with what's going on here? Why the Colts supposedly knew what the Titans were going to be and defensively.
Like crazy, I actually have not.
There's there's a conspiracy theory out there that the Colts have been listening to the calls of the defenses that they're playing and they're going back into the game film because there's no crowd, so the radio, the radio call and the TV call, you can hear the audibles being yelled out by the defenses. Supposedly, Supposedly, there's been some interesting work going on with the Colts and they know what the defensive audibles are and you're hearing Philip rivers
switch into different plays. They're gonna put them in the better play based upon what the defense has switched into.
But you feel like that that's not like I mean, I get.
It, No, no, no, it's a trick of a veteran who knows what to get. That's why they've been moving the ball so well on some of these good defenses.
But I would think that, like, I mean, that's you know that. When you first said I was like wow, And I was like, well, wait, like that seems pretty like why wouldn't every team do that like that? That's everybody know. You can hear everything now, yep in these games, like why would that be something that It's sort of like, Wow, the Colts stumbled upon this amazing way, Like I would think the teams are changing their audibles every week. I
don't hate it. I just think the Colts are are a good I mean, River did look done for a while. He looks a little better now. I mean I think that they're you know, I think Michael Pittman Junior being back is definitely helpful, getting him like a real playmarker in that offense. So especially with Adams being questionable, I'm gonna put that one in the in the maybe. I mean I lean that side, so I'll definitely put that
one in the maybe. Okay, this is going better than I thought here that I thought we would get all right this one. I'd actually really like to know your thoughts on because you know, the Vikings looked really good. They've played better, but I kind of like the Cowboys getting more than the touchdown at seven and a half against the Vikings, and I'll lay my case on and then you could say I hate it or I lean that way. That's fine, Dalton should start here. I don't
really know if that matters whether or not. As long as it's not Ben Denucci, it's fine. It doesn't really matter which one it is. Their line is getting healthier at this point. The Vikings cornerbacks, as we know, are abysmal, and just the fact that you had Nick Foles who couldn't do anything, that's really why you weren't able to
necessarily exploit them. The defense played pretty well against the Steelers, as much as the Steelers kind of like meled it in a little bit like the Cowboys defense played a little better.
Now.
They do have some injuries back there, but they're coming off a bye. If Zeke's gonna be a little healthier. The Vikings are on a short week. This seems like sort of a little bit of a trap game here for the Vikings, as they're flying high getting more than a touchdown. I kind of like the Cowboys to keep this game close.
Yeah, because then the other contest it's seven, So we got a little better number there at seven and a half, which I like on the hook perspective, And frankly, look, I didn't think the Vikings played that well and they won the game. So like, okay, they won, Kirk Cousins gets to run around to be like I won a game on Monday Night football. Now look at me. I'm no longer oh to nine. I can't stand Kirk Cousins. So I know I remember, I have no problem fading
him here. I have no issue if you want to stand on a table and you feel strongly, I don't have a strong lean one way or the other.
Yeah.
But if I'm gonna fade Kirk Cousins and I get more than a touchdown, okay.
Yeah, I think I I kind of like this one, I'll you know. And again it's at seven right now, fifty seven percent of experts in our bed analyzer are on Dallas. I think, coming off a bye, I think this is a game where they're going to come out and play well.
And again, well, the number is Mike McCarthy is ten and two against the spread up of a bye in his career.
Yeah, I was gonna get to McCarthy in the second. That's absolutely right. The other thing is, remember Dalvin Cook, as amazing as he is. I was talking about it on our DFS show today. What do you have thirty two to thirty four touches in this game on a short week, Like there's just so much the guy can do. And their receivers are very I mean, Jefferson is great,
Adam Feelin is very very good. And again the Cowboys are a little injured in their secondary, but I just I think that they're going to be able to move. I don't think Dalton was nearly as bad as he looked in that first game. We've seen Dalton be a competent NFL quarterback. And again, the Vikings defense is really nothing to write home about it. If you give me arrested zeke, you give me the good line, you give me competent quarterback play, at least with the receivers, I
think they'll keep it within a touchdo so. I do kind of like this game. This one would be one that I would kind of push to get in if we were sort of like, well we need one more. I think this one, you know, comes in at fourth on my list, behind the one that we're not going to go with with the Eagles. But I like the Titans as well as the Chiefs. All right, so do you have another lean here that you were looking at?
The only other game I was looking at, or the Patriots laying two and a half or two.
I think it's two and a half in the contest. It's two and a half in the contest. The consensus line right now is two though.
Yeah, Patriots on the road against the Texans laying too, And that's the only other one that I would lean to because I do think that this is the game where if the year is going to turn around for the Patriots, this is it. Yeah, So if they're going to be a contender, if they're going to be in the conversation point, Look, Shaun Watson's very dangerous. I'm not
going to debate that. But Damien Harris is going to have a monster u DFS in prop players, My favorite prop bit of the week is Damien Harris to run crazy on this Texans defense.
Is that an actual prop bet that they that they list. Will Damien Harris run crazy?
Yes, over over over over, touches, over carries, over yardage, touchdown props. I will be on the daily juice. Damien Harris is going to be where I'm gonna ride this guy like crazy. So I think he has a monster game. I think they play keep away they don't let Watson go deep and beat them. Although they will have their secondary back, which is good. Gilmore should play and I just think the Patriots.
Is Gilmore gonna play in this game, by the way I think he's.
Going to do. I think that's why I think they didn't play him last week, because I think that they knew they didn't need him because of the fact that Ravens can't pass. They need him in this game. To shop is to stop Watson. Yeah, so put him on fuller and see what happens. But I am I think the Patriots won the game by three.
Yeah, I'm inclined to agree with this one. Matt. I'm on that side. I mean, I lean that way. It wasn't one of my picks, but I did. I always have like, okay, if Matt comes in, which side of my own if I say something. I was on that side, And I've kind of been more and more talking myself
into this game as we got there. I was, you know, I'm not sure that it matters, you know, because I know was two and a half, and it was two and a half when I earlier locked in my pick, which was the Patriots already and now it's moved to a little bit. Sixty two percent of experts in our bed analyzer are on the Patriots. So yeah, I'm thinking.
There's one game. I can't believe you hadn't brought up yet. I thought for sure you.
Were done, that we've done it. Wait, I don't have which did you think I was giving?
I thought you'd be on the Falcons.
Oh okay, so that that is fair. The Falcons were like my runner up pick of the ones that I actually felt I would be totally fine if you were like, I want to take the Falcons against the Saints with Jameis Winston. I just feel like, you know, first of all, Winston just historically he's not great as a favorite, great as underdog because he's crazy and he just is going to throw the ball until they would catch up. The Falcons,
off of by their defense, has been playing better. I don't hate the Falcons getting four and a half, but it's not one of my you know, I wouldn't push for it over any of.
The Pro Football Focus Play the week is the first it's plus five.
Yeah, it's four and a half for us.
I don't really I keep on, but my argument to them was is it Winston you're fading or Taysom Hill? Yeah, because who's playing quarterback? But way do we know who's playing quarterback for them?
Do we?
Are we positive it's Jamis? Because if here Jamis fine, but they've got another option at quarterback.
Yeah, but you know, if they were gonna do this, if they were gonna go to Taysom Hill, then they just why would they bring in Winston? Like the same thing with Bridgewater. You have Taysom Hill on your roster, if you're willing to turn it over to him, why are you bringing in an actual NFL.
And why are they paying him what they're paying.
Him because they think he's the future.
I guess, well, now is your future because your quarterback's got a punctured lung.
I get it. But that's why that the same thing last year with Bridgewater. I mean, what you know, I get it? Well, I think for me and again, this consensus spread is four and sixty three percent are still on Atlanta. That definitely was a game that I was like, Okay, maybe i'll talk about this. Frankly, I kind of thought there's no way you would go for it, so I.
Want to go for it. I mean, I just figured you. I guess that was gonna be young because I don't. I have no real harsh feeling on your way. I just don't. I just think that it's a dangerous pick because of the Tasom Hill angle. I just I don't know who the quarterback is. If you told me that Tasom Hill was hurt and it was all Jamos, then I'd probably subscribe to it and go fine, ride the Falcons. Yeah,
but it's not. I mean, they have a plan B that if Winston comes out and search Thorn picks, they got a guy who can play the quarterback spot at least competently. It scares me to go ahead. And it's a big rivalry game. I mean, these two teams hate each other.
Right, Yeah, I just I don't know, man, I like the Saints. I hate betting against them.
Now.
I get it's not Drew Brees, but yeah, I don't. I don't really have a great feeling. I definitely lean the Falcons. And if I'm gonna go one way, it is with the Falcons. If you came in here and said I want the Saints, I'd say, no, I'm off that game. But you know, I do think it's gonna be Jamis, so to be fair, though, I think they're gonna mix in Hill a lot more than they would with Breeze. But I think the primary quarterback is gonna be Winston. But we'll put that one to the side.
I'll recap it at the end when we are finalizing our five picks if we don't decide to use the bye week. Although tagging it through, I don't hate this week quite as much as I did before we got into it. But we can get through it. Let's go through the remaining games that we've gotten again. I have just written them down randomly. Don't read anything into if I say the favorite or whatever. First, the Bucks laying
three and a half to the Rams in Tampa. This is Monday Night football, I believe, right.
Yep, correct?
How do you feel so at first?
Guess it's gonna be a tough game for Tom Brady. Okay, so this is the Rams. Do what you have to do to beat Tampa. They're gonna rush and blitz the holy heck out of Brady and make him very uncomfortable. They're gonna make him move off of his spot. So on the other side, I don't think Tampa moves the ball much and scores much. So my question is what does Jared Goff do on the road against that Tampa defense. I don't like this Tampa defense at all. I gotta
ride the Tampa defense. I would ride. I would take the three and a half points here and take the Rams.
Yeah. If I'm forced to choose a side, it would be with the Rams. I mean, whitworth being down scares me because you know what GoF does under pressure. We have seen it a million times. I I feel like I could talk myself into either side of this game if I really had to, Like, I don't.
Have it's a great game. It's a big game.
Both it's a great game. Yes, that's true. It's a great game. I don't have a great lean on it, So it would be one that you know, you could talk me into it if you were like Dan, I feel great about the Rams, but I don't like it more than our picks. But yeah, I mean I guess that I would probably lean towards the Rams. But it's just kind of an ugly game. I don't really want it. How about the Bengals getting one and a half from Washington in Washington?
I mean, if I had to go with it. I would take the Bengals. Yeah, but I mean, this is just this game and the Lions and the Panthers game. I'm not even gonna watch these games. They're so bad. It's just a horrific football games.
I agree. I don't want any part of this. And by the way, this is another illness to Higgins miss practice with an illness. I have no idea if it's just an illness. A lot of times they like to specify, like Duke Johnson this week, this is a non COVID related illness. They have not specified that with Higgins. They have not specified that with Clyde Edwards Dulaire. So I'm
not I don't know what's gonna happen. But yeah, this is a game where like I mean, I'll watch because I have to watch every game because I have to do a recap show for fantasy purposes. But I would not watch this game or lay any money on this game. I would just stay away from it. And again, same thing with the lines. Now I will say that the Lion's getting one and a half from the Panthers. There are so many variables in this stupid game. You've got
Deonder Swift, who essentially has been declared out. Now, I mean, I don't know if it's he's unlikely to play with the concussion, that just game to light. Matthew Stafford is questionable with the thumb. Kenny Galladay was at practice yesterday, then there was a report he was at practice, and he wasn't that practice today, so nobody really knows. Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater is likely to sit just I I mean, can we just skip this game because nobody should be betting on this game?
Right yep?
Okay, very good. How about the Dolphins length three and a half to the Broncos in Denver?
This is hard. I mean, this is I hate Drew Locke. Their offense looked so bad on the road against the Patriot, mean against the Raiders last week with four interceptions he threw or three interceptions.
It was playing this game by the right.
And so that's why I was like, well, ripping my play, look out for ripping. Okay, I mean is there that big of a difference between the ripping and Locke? I don't know. The quarterback play has been so bad. John Elway needs to stop drafting quarterbacks and let somebody else do it, because they can't pick quarterbacks saved life. It's embarrassing. It's the Broncos at home at altitude. I don't like Tua. Like you guys know. Their numbers are still bad offensively, but their defense is scoring.
Especially offensively with Tua like, they have not played as well offensively, and.
That was predictable. We knew. I said it they at the switch. I said, this is stupid. This is a bad move for their offense. But they're not doing it for their offense. They're doing it because I want to sell jerseys and may people think that they're going to be there. If I had to bet, I would take the home dog at three and a half. But is that what it is? It is three and a half, right,
three and a half correct. I would take the three and a half for the hook, But I don't have a great feel because the Dolphins are the better team.
Yeah, I lean towards the Dolphins if I had to go somewhere, just because I you know, the Broncos are awful, man, and that The one thing I will say is the Dolphins defense is legitimate like that. I mean, Brian Floores fantastic, like maybe Coach of the Year considering what he has done with that team right now. And the Broncos are just a mess. Man Like, they're a mess, and I don't really care if it's ripping or lock. By the way, I don't consider that a huge downgrade at this point
in their careers. But this is what's funny to me, Matt. That is the most one sided game in our bet analyzer, and it's on the Dolphins at thine and a half eighty three percent, and that that is the side that I'm on. But I don't feel good. I as a general rule, I don't love betting against the Broncos.
It's out in two. It's a warm weather team in cold weather conditions, yep. And all they do is run the football. So it's like if Lindsey can get free, it's I mean, the Dolphins have been living off of their special teams in defensive points. At some point that runs out, yep. So I don't like the Broncos defense. The Broncos give up what forty five points to the Raiders, whatever it was. I mean, it's a bad football team.
But there's a lot of exterior conditions there outside of the Broncos players with altitude and weather and you know, cold and the Dolphins don't like playing. Look at their record in New England in December. Okay, it's not great, So it's tough to back the Dolphins there.
Yeah, I think every point that you've made about why it is tough to back the Dolphins is legitimate. And I just can't back the Broncos under any circumstances, Like I just couldn't final game unless I missed one. The Charge laying eight and a half to the Jets in Los Angeles.
Well, if it wasn't for that stupid haircut, I would say I'd go with the Chargers. But anybody that's gonna let the strength and conditioning coach cut their hair, I'm questioning the logic of where they are here with Justin Herbert.
So this is the second podcast that I've done that has referenced feeling worse about Justin Herbert and the Chargers because of the haircut. So I really like that we're at.
Not the haircut itself, it's who he had do the haircut. He asked his strength coach to cut his hair. I mean, his hair is his thing. Okay, that's the thing for the big guy with the flock with the locks and whatever, and that that's the surfer boy or Oregon like, that's him. To go ahead and cut the serial killer, you know, fade whatever you want to call that haircut and to have it be like, oh, I didn't care. I want to do something to I need to make a change.
So it gave the Clippers to the strength coach justin dude, what's up? Man? Wow? So based on that Jets plus eight and a half, well, that.
Is a scientific analysis. I think I'm more than willing to pass on this game at eight and a half. I think I would still take Chargers regardless of the hair guy. But it isn't something that I feel comfortable playing just because I mean maybe that was Joe Flacco's game of his life against the Patriots. But you know, if you do have if Paraman is going to play in this game, you do have Denzel Nims who is
stepping up looking a little better. You've got Jamison Crowder's gonna play a full compliment of snaps, unlike what he did against the Patriots. I think they can at least score some points. Now, again, the Jets secondary, I mean, their cornerback group is a joke right now. Brian Poole is just placed on my or you know, they cut Pierre to Seer, you know. Plus Austin is out, so I don't understand how you're ever gonna stop the Chargers. But it doesn't really matter. I don't really want to
go near it. Okay, So let's recap Matt. This is interesting, and again I'm going to I'll tweet it out and Matt will tweet it out whether or not we decide to use one of our weeks because we have to use two over the next six weeks. Now, I think, Matt, we have said that we're thinking of using one over Thanksgiving. Correct, that's just kind of what you want to do, So we will have that one built in, so we might
use this one. I will let you know. But these are a leans, certainly the Chiefs for the contest, at least the Chiefs getting minus six and a half to the Raiders. That one is a lock in. It's much higher now, so it's gonna go high. And you've heard our thoughts on that one. The Titans plus six and a half against the Ravens. Again, that is moving in the other direction right now. So we like the Titans there, We like the Jaguars gross getting ten and a half
from the Steelers. That's still where the line is last time I checked everywhere. So if you can get that, I really do feel like this is just a letdown spot for the Steelers. So then we've got a few other games, Matt, that we've talked about, really three unless you want to talk about the Falcons getting four and a half from the Saints, which I don't think you do. Do you like the Colts lank two and a half to the Packers, and the Patriots lank two and a
half to the Texans? And I kind of liked the Cowboys getting seven and a half from from the Vikings. So of those, do you have a favorite one that you like? I mean to assume it's one of the two that you put out there.
Boy, is there I would prefer I would, oh gosh.
Yeah, it's the Patriots saying too and a half to the Texans.
I want to the Patriots, but I'm gonna get called a homer for it.
No, I think that's my FA I think I like that one too, Matt. I think if if if you were like Dan, what game do you like of those? Once we start talking about a little bit more, I don't know, man, like just the Patriots now that they're kind of back into it a little bit. And I will say that I do think that a couple of things for the Patriots. Number one, I think it's very possible.
And I think you mentioned this that it's possible that Cam as bad as he looked when he returned from COVID, like he could have still been as much as he said it was asymptomatic. Like you know from personal experience, Matt, that it messes with you.
The brain fog is real. The brain fog is is a thing nobody wants to acknowledge because you can't measure it. It's not a fever, it's not a know, a cough, it's just you don't feel right. And I agree, I agree.
Yeah, And he has played better. I mean, he still is not a great passer. But again I do think that the you know, emergence of Jacoby Myers is a big deal. He is playing great. I think Damien Harris looks great. I like how they involved Rex Burkhead. I mean, I'm gaining a little confidence in this team. And conversely, I have very little comments in the Texans. So if you're giving it underfield, no Matt. I kind of like that game more and more so I do wanting to
go with that one. If you ate not a Homer, I'll make that pick, yeah.
Because look it's the Look at the Texans against the run. Look at the numbers they give up. They just give up huge gash chunk plays yep in the run game.
So all right, So, I mean, I won't quote unquote stand on a table, but I will say that I do like, particularly the Cowboys getting seven and a half, okay from the Vikings, because I do think that they're going to come out of the buy. I think this is going to be a letdown game for the Vikings coming off that big divisional win. I'm not saying that the Cowboys are gonna win, but I do like them to keep this close enough too.
It's fading the Vikings. You know, I'm gonna run it.
So you're good, okay. So if we do go with it, we like the Chiefs mind of six and a half to the Raiders, the Titans getting six and a half from the Ravens, the Jaguars getting ten and a half from the Steelers, the Patriots laying two and a half to the Texans, and the Cowboys getting seven and a half to the Vikings. I don't know, Matt. I do not hate this, Okay. I mean that probably means we'd go on five. But I don't necessarily hate this. So let's let it marinate for a little bit and then
let's see. I will say, if Devanta Adams turns out to be out, I would definitely consider swapping the Colts in for the Cowboys in that sense. We can talk about that because I really think that that is a huge, huge letdown for their offense, even if when Allen's started returned. So all right, you feel, you know, maybe we'll think about it. We'll talk about it then a little more.
Yeah, let's do it, right, I'm good, good enough for me.
All right. That is it for today's show. Thanks everybody for stopping by. Reminder listen to The Daily Juice, Matt's daily podcast, which is great. Tune into the YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros for Matt's live stream on Sunday mornings eleven a m. To noon Eastern time. I will give Matt my props. I remembered last week both of them hit right, Yes, excellent. I will give make sure I will give Matt my props on Saturday night so I don't leaven hanging again. It's a great time.
So thanks everybody for listening for this podcast. We will talk to you next week.