Week 11 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 131)

The annoying part is Mike is again on the betting pros app which you know, I know you use obviously run the experts. We have a leader board and we sort of went and I was eight and three against the spread last week, and unfortunately the ones I gave out are the losers here. Sorry, I apologize you. Though Good Star were second. You had a perfect week. There only four picks, but four and O what were you on last week? Out of curiousity? Do you remember the picks that you got right? Oh?

those no sweats right away. The one that was a little close, which I was happy about was the Saints. Yeah, got down to two and a half and you know, they limped to the finish line. But how many times have we lost one at the end, So I'll take it there. It was a perfect week, you know, onto this week, but yeah, it was fun.

us has picked. But let me remind you first about the latest offer from bet MGM bet new customers using the code Juice one hundred. If you bet on any NFL game, any team you bet ten dollars to win two hundred dollars. It's a team you bet on scores a touchdown, simple as that that's almost certainly going to happen again. Code Juice one hundred that is available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington,

d C, Arizona, and Wyoming. So I will quickly run through last week. As I said, our guest Ben Steve had the Saints get in two and a half, which is again I said last week another pick that I liked and I was on as well. He also hit on the Bills and the Jets over forty eight points. So his third one was a player prop that he really liked, which was Derek Carr over pass attempts. No, the line wasn't actually out when we did it, so I basically had him give me the line where he

would go. He said if it was over thirty five and a half, he wouldn't take it, but he would take it anything under. The line turned out to be thirty six and a half, so I'm going to give him pass. Even though went under it was only thirty five he would have technically missed, but he did say, don't bet it if it was over thirty five and a half, So I'm going to give him a two to zero and whatever, And I went out in three. I was on the other side of that Patriots game.

I really thought the Browns were going to be able to take care of business there. I have not had a good beat on the Patriots this year. I fully admit that, alside the under in that game, which the Patriots basically took care of themselves. And I missed on the Seahawks getting three and a half from the Packers. It's funny because the defense sort of played and Rogers was a little rusty. I just don't think I factored in just quite how rough the russ would have been.

So that's bad. We're gonna bounce back this week sixteen and fourteen now in the season. All right, Mike, we can go with you. I will give out the betting pros consensus lines. Again a betting pros, we give out the lines from basically every single book, so you can see generally where you want to attack. I always have to bet DraftKings, so that's where I have in New Hampshire. But you can bet obviously whatever your book is. But there is a consensus line based on all of the books.

And again I mentioned the app that Mike and I you know, had good weeks last week. Mike was the second most accurate expert here against the spread in terms of well, obviously it was perfect, but in units. In terms of units one I was eleventh. So you can make your own pixel also on the betting pros app and you can see where you stand. All right, Mike, begin your first pick, sir.

even though Danielle Hunter is out. Last week two sacks, interception, six QB hits against a very good offensive line on the Chargers and an explosive passing attack. Vikings are five to three and one last nine games against Green Bay, including last year when they won twenty eight to twenty two at Green Bay. In that game, Rogers DeVante Adams

three touchdowns together. Packers still lost no Aaron Jones this week and the Packers defense has been playing better, but they do have injuries, Zadaris Smith's been out of course, jyr Alexander's on ir no Merciless and then of course on offense no Aaron Jones, Robert Tunyan, which kills them in the red zone. Vikings may even get better in their secondary. Their secondary has been playing well, but they

had injuries. Patrick Peterson should be back, Harrison Smith. Public's gonna hammer green Bay like they always do with the Packers and the Cowboys. I like it at two and a half. There's a way to get to three. I would. I like this Vikings offense, which has been able to put up points. Last year, Dalvin Cook hammered the Packers in Green Bay. That's how they won that game. Right now, you're looking at the majority of bets end money on the Packers, So of course, being a contrarian always good

in the betting world. I want the Vikings. I may invested in them. I had them as a future to win the division at plus three point fifty. Can they get there? It seems like they can't, but if they sweep the Packers, they'd be real close. I think they start here like the Vikings as a home underdog here getting a couple points against Rogers and the Packers. Rogers still coming out of COVID, not sure how he's gonna be, and he's missing a lot of weapons.

at this point. This is obviously a divisional game. It's home for the Viking, so it's gonna be good. What's interesting is you make the good point of the fact that the public is hitting the Packers in this game, and the line is moving in the other direction right like the line is slowly coming down. There's a lot of two's out there. There are some one and a half out there right now, so it's moving in the other direction, which shows you sort of how the books

and how the sharps generally think of it. I'm with you in this pick. It was one of the ones, Mike, when you picked it, I said it was on my list, right, it was on my list of potentials. I don't know if I could have done it, mainly just because I've seen Kirk Cousins in the spot too many times where it's like, this is your spot, man, this should be it,

this is the game, and he doesn't come through. I do think that the loss of Aaron Jones is bigger than people are giving it credit for, right because of the fact that aj Dillon looks so good as a running back, but Dylan is not the same caliber of blocker in terms of pass protection or anything like that. He's not the same as a pass catch, although he's been more involved this whole year than I expected him to be in that you know at all, just give

them what we saw in college. But it's a big loss here for it, and as the Vikings defense does get healthier, as they gel a little more, I think you're on the right side. I don't know what would have been one of my picks, but I think you're on the right side.

All right, Mike, Let's start with the game that you and I talked about that found interesting here, and it's the quote unquote sharp Side as we had talked about, and it's the Raiders plus one at home against the Bengals. I talked about this on Monday. We do the look Ahead Lines podcast, which I like the spot for the Raiders. Our guests liked it for the Bengals, but I liked it for the Raiders, then I like it for now.

Now I don't love the Raiders. Is much more of a fade of the Bengals, but I do think that's a pretty decent spot for them here they've got two bad losses in a row, right, Like, obviously you've got the Giants and they're embarrassed by the Chiefs. But this is this is basically it is, you got to take a stand right now if you're the Raiders and you have any sort of semblance of playoff hopes or anything like that to the next three games are the Chiefs

and the Cowboys. Both of those games are on the road, So you lose this one, your season might as well just basically be over. So I think you're gonna get a spurited effort here on both sides of the ball. It's a home game, crowd's going to be into it, so that's where it is. But this is much more of a fade of the Bengals. Like people love the Bengals. Early on, it was very exciting, got the young kids here,

with Jamar Chase amazing. Joe Burrow has looked great for the most part, as he came back earlier, sort of rounded into formal little earlier than I expected. But they are twenty fifth in overall DVOA. Like I mean, DVA is not everything, but that sort of gives you a good sense of what they actually are as a team.

They're coming off losses to the Jets and the Browns, and I know they're coming off of bye, but the buy hasn't really met that much when you're looking at teams covering or not covering against spread here off the by this year in particular, and I really don't trust Zach Taylor on the road. It's a young team, it's in Las Vegas. That always makes me a little nervous

for the Raiders offense. The los anderw Ruggs is big, but I do think I mean, Deshaun Jackson obviously had that big fumble, but he played nine snaps last week. He's gonna play a little bit more this week. I think that's going to be able to help them do what they need to do, which is stretch the field a lot more to open up the underneath routes for hunter renfro for Darren Waller. We saw Brian Edwards get a little more involved, and the loss of alec Engold

is bad. I mean, he's he's an important part. Actually, they're running in. Their running game has struggled, but it's just a bounce back spot. And there are two things when I looked at sort of what are we going to see here from the defense, which isn't isn't that great or anything like that, versus the Bengals offense again, which I just I never feel like it's really firing on all cylinders. The first thing that I saw is

that the Raiders have a very good pass rush. Okay, now they didn't get any sacks against Patrick Mahomes, but this was just that was just the spot where I think the Chiefs were like, Okay, we've got it. Now, we're going to do a lot of quick players. We're going to get it out. The Raiders ranked ninth in pressure rate on the year. That's a twenty six percent, and again they just had the Chiefs where they didn't

get a lot of pressure. But they do that despite the fact that they blitz at the lowest clip in the league, right thirteen point eight percent. By far the lowest in the league. They don't blitz, but they do get pressure with Max Crosby and everything. So the Bengals give up a ton of sacks. So it's just kind of a bad matchup when you can get pressure on any young quarterback here without blitzing. And the second is that the Raiders, you know, they play a lot of

cover three here, they play a lot of zone. You look at how Burrow performs, He's much better against defenses I play man rather than zone. So I think this is really just the spot. I mean, I hate to say too many good things about the Raiders because I'm not buying the Raiders necessarily, but I'm much more selling the Bengals, even coming off a buye. I just don't believe in the team coming into Vegas. I think they struggle.

It's basically a pick them game. I will take the home team, So give me the Raiders here getting one. I know we talked about a little bit earlier, Mike how you said it's probably the sharp side of it, but you know, obviously the public probably is gonna be a little more Oncensey, Right, Yeah.

you the Raiders here. He's a little too focused on gambling. But Derek Carr has not typically been a turnover machine. He's a very safe quarterback. He's had some bad turnovers. I think last week was just spot against the Chiefs that it got out of hand. But they have played very well at home, They've competed, and remember against the Ravens earlier this year. I think the Raiders are a

better team overall. People are gonna side with the Bengals because of the explosive offense, and like you said, Vegas has adjusted to teams coming off of bye and even with that adjustment, we're looking at the Raiders here only being a one point dog. So I'm with you. I think it's the sharp side this week Vegas and the Raiders here against the Bengals.

factor in. But again, this spot the Raiders if they need this game, like this is their season essentially, and they're a better team I think than they've showed the last couple of weeks. So all right, go to your second pick, Mike, what do you have?

Let's remember that Seattle with the twelfth man at home, which they didn't have last year, always really tough per bet Labs, twenty four to twelve and six is what Pete Carroll is in his career against the spread. Coming off a loss. Seahawks had a brutal schedule, but they battled through it. With Geno Smith lost to the Rams, that's the game Wilson got hurt. Steelers three point loss. That was with Gino. Lost to the Saints by three at home. That was with Gino. Kyler Murray is very

up in the air and Dan. When he doesn't run, he is not the same quarterback and the Cardinals don't win at the same rate. If he doesn't run for at least twenty yards, he averages eight fewer Fantasy points per game, and in the games that he doesn't hit twenty, he usually has hit over his career eight, which means when he's limited, he's very, very limited. He is not a prolific pocket passer. He's best when he's running outside of the tackles trying to create on his own. DeAndre

Hopkins has been hurt all season long. They don't have Chase Edmonds. Seattle needs this game badly. And look, don't forget that the Seahawks are still in the playoff race. They're only three and six. The Panthers are in and they're five and five. So you're telling me now after nine games they're out of the playoff race. They are at home, their schedule is getting better. Division games are always close. If Murray doesn't play, I'm gonna love it.

Like last week, I grib Carolina right away getting ten and a half, we heard no Murray. It got down to six. In this case, this could easily flip on Sunday. Arizona has their by next week. I don't know why you'd rush Murray back, and if it's still uncertain at this point, he's probably not healthy, which in his career means he hasn't always played well. I love Seattle as a home dog here getting two and a half, and I think Russ starts to cook again because the Seahawks need to make a playoff push.

you said, he is going to be limited. Like there, he's not coming back in one hundred percent. He's not going to run as much. That is a huge, huge thing for Kyler Murray and we saw last year, so it's something that is going to affect them. You talked about the Seahawks. This is talked about a little bit with the Raiders. This is a last stand a little bit with the Seahawks, because if you go to three and seven, then it's tough, right then is really tough.

But you win this game. You mentioned it. They out Washington, they have the Texans, they have the Bears, they have the Lions. They've got a lot of really winnable games here. You win this game and suddenly like that's Evans spot, that's right there for you. I wonder though, and I was on the Seahawks last week thinking that Wilson would be okay. I mean, if Wilson plays anything like what he played last week, it's gonna be tough for them

to be. You know, the Jets at this point, are you thinking that this was really just a man really rusty had to get used to. It should be closer to the rest that we see that we expected to see in this game.

Colt McCoy late in the week against San Francisco. I really believe that San Francisco was preparing for Kyler Murray and got all thrown off. Last week. Carolina prepared for Colt McCoy, and you saw what happens if they go with Colt McCoy. Again not going to go. Well, that's why he's a backup quarterback. So in some ways Arizona wants Murray to play because they know what they have in McCoy. But Murray is still going to be compromised,

and you have your buy. I think it's a mess, Cliff Kingsbury, I'm not a fan of that offense is not explosive. They've been efficient, and they really have benefited from some early game turnovers. Even again San Francisco. Kittle makes a catch, he fumbles, they score touchdown. Ayuk makes a catch, he fumbles, They score touchdown. As long as Seattle doesn't turn this ball over, I think they control

this game with the defense. And I don't even know if Russ has to have three hundred yards, he just has to be solid because at home they have such an advantage.

I'm going to game that. When I first looked at I said, I want no part of this game other than to have some popcorn and watch. And instead, when I dug into it, I said, okay, you know what, I'm going to take the Chiefs laying under a field goal of two and a half against the Cowboys. And this line hasn't moved all week. All these lines were talking about like they've all had a little bit of movement one way or another, blah blah. This one just stuck two and a half. I looked at this game, Mike,

and I was going through it a little bit. Let's start with just historically, this is a spot where you back Mahomes and the Chiefs. It's obviously a home field advantage. It's a big one. We know always about how like Man, the Chiefs don't cover, the Chiefs uncover, the Chiefs uncovered. Chiefs don't cover because they're always pretty significant favorites. Right when they are a dog which is rare, or a short home favorite, it's seventy seven percent of the time

where Mahomes will cover. So just historically speaking, put out anything else. This is a good spot for homes. You saw the offensive joshuents last week, right, You figured we would eventually see them. I didn't know when we would see them. We finally did see them, and you look at their offense. Their offense has been broken for whatever.

Blah blah blah blah. The Chiefs are second behind the Bucks in EPA per play offensively, And just to explain what that means to everybody, EPA is essentially expected points added. That's basically how well a team performs relative to what the expectations would be. Uh. They're again behind only the Bucks. As I said, they're better than the Bills, the Cardinals, the Rams like. Their offense looks terrible and looks broken, but it's still basically one of the truly elite units

in the NFL. They're first in success rate fifty one point seven percent. That's basically how efficient your offense is within the context of the play. How about the defense. That's been the big deal right there. It's been much maligned all year. Everybody hates the defense. It's been terrible, one of the worst defenses in the league. That's true, but not as much lately, right they're playing a little better lately. They've allowed sixteen points per game over the

last five. Yes, they've had some soft matchups the Giants, the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, of course, but we didn't talk about that much when we were looking at their defense earlier on the season. It's been injured like throughout the year. It's been injured. Not one guy, but it's like every week they had a different guy who was just missing. Now everyone is healthy last couple of games, and they've been playing a lot better. Willie Gays back,

he is playing well. Lajerius Sneed is playing very well. They added Melvin Ingram, and they've gotten a lot more pressure now when you look at them over the last four weeks, they're actually ninth overall in pressure rate on the season mentioned DPA per play. Offensively, they're tenth defensively over the last three games, all right, so they have been better for sure defensively. Now. The Cowboys are great.

It's a great team, but they're not as good defensively as everybody sort of wants or expects them to be. They've done a good job of getting pressure for most of the season, even though they haven't had DeMarcus Lawrence, but now they're without Randy Gregory's on ir here excuse me with the calf injury. He led the team with twenty quarterback pressure, so it is a big deal in

terms of them being able to get pressure. Defense is good, but it's much more about them being opportunistic and forcing turno. They take chances, and when you take chances against the Chiefs, I think that that's just something that's gonna burn you eventually. And offensively, they are great, but they've been home forever. Okay, they've been home. They opened two games on the road, so they've been home five of their last seven games. They're a different team on the road, not nearly as good.

Tyron Smith may still miss this game. Seee Lambs a little banged up. I think you know, Kansas City is gonna get some pressure here again, just based on how much they've been getting pressure lately. I think that's gonna force back into just enough mistakes. I think the Chiefs win this game. If you're giving it to me under a field goal at home in Arrowhead, I'm taking the leap, Mike. I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on it.

that's the play. I think Kansas City had turned a corner against the Raiders. Patrick Mahomes has been off on his deep passes. He missed Tyreek Hill down the sideline last game. He missed Mcole Harbon in.

week as well against the Raiders. I am on the side with you as the Chiefs just banking on some regression. I mean, if you think the Cowboys are gonna go undefeated against a spread on the road and the Chiefs are gonna go winless against the spread at home, then fine, I gets you back the Cowboys here, but I'm not I like the two and a half. It keeps in our number three. I'm with you on Kansas City.

bigger play, which is what you wanted. I don't know if Clyde Edwards Hilira is gonna come back this week, hopefully, but Andy Reid is putting, you know, he's boo pooing a little bit. But Daryl William has been very capable, especially as a pass catcher. So I just think, man in this it's gonna be a great game. I can't wait to watch it. Almost am sad to gonna have some action on it. But still I think if you were underfield goal and again, I don't think it moves.

I think we are locked in right here at two and a half. We have been all week. I'm gonna go with the Chiefs to win it. Last pick, Mike, go for it.

last eight games against the spread. They're oh at eight when they are favorite. So now we're down on Pittsburgh. They tied Detroit at home. Everyone's frustrated. There's injuries there. We're worried about TJ watatt Is Roethlisberger going to play. This is where Tomlin is superior. They're going on the road. They're playing a Charger team that is dead last in rush defense. DVOA, dead last. Najay Harris, who's been fantastic the volume, has played really, really well. Another under the

radar point. Last week, Roethlisberger was announced out on Saturday, which means to me that all week long, Pittsburgh really didn't prepare Mason Rudolph. He was kind of thrown in last minute. Mason Rudolph is very capable in these spots. I think back to an old game when Steelers played the Chargers. I think it was My Night Football where Michael Vick was the quarterback because Roethlisberger was out, and the Steelers won that game at the very end where

Leaveon Bell got into the end zone. I love Pittsburgh here. It's around five and a half. I would love it even more if they announced that Mason Rudolph is starting, because you know what will happen. The line will go in the other direction. We'll get six six and a half. I'm fine with it. They had a full week of practice. No one believes in us. I know there's injuries for the Steelers, there's also injuries for the Chargers. No Joey Bosa.

Mike Williams has been really struggling. I think in fantasy he was the wide receiver too for the first five weeks and the last five weeks he's been the wide receiver eighty so he's struggling as well. Heavy dose of Naj Harris. The Steelers can absolutely win this game, and it's way too many points. Sometimes you want to follow a trend, sometimes you don't. In this case, I am sticking with it. Tomlin is great in these spots. The

Steelers absolutely think they can win the division. We're hearing Lamar Jackson maybe out against the Bears, so they need this game. They're angry, they're focused, and the trend works in our favor. I will take the Steelers and the points, and I'll take it. Whether it's Ben who should be back or Mason Rudolph doesn't matter to me.

what happens every week. And you make a great point, by the way, Ben's self reported symptoms last week on Saturday, right, so you're right, they went. And it's not like Mason Rodolff's you know, been that impressive generally speaking when he's played. But regardless, it's a big deal when you're like on Saturday, when you haven't had any chance to practice, then suddenly a guy's like, oh you're starting right now. It's as big also, and all the rain and everything like that,

and just how bad that was. This is a spot. They're embarrassed the fact that they tied the Lions and everything like that. Yeah, man, it's a spot. And I do think that the Chargers are overrated right now, and I don't. It's six and a half by the way, to a lot of books, so it's five and a half, six and a half, consensus line five and a half. But yeah, man, I worry a little bit about the Charges justin Herbert has you know, their metrics that suggest

that he's been better than he's played. But I do think that he's struggling a little bit with this offense, which is not all that unexpected. So I like this spot. This is a good one for you. Again, probably wouldn't have been one of my picks, but I did like it a lot. I'd rather get uglier, though, Mike. I'd rather get really ugly. Okay, I'd rather get Texans getting ten from the Titans ugly. Let's get really now. I

want this at ten and a half. Okay, our sponsors, bet MGM, if you can bet on BETMGM, do it for this game because it's ten and a half. But the majority of books are at ten. Mike, there's no way the Titans are as good as this eight and two number one seen the AFC. Right, Like, put aside before I get into it. Do you you think the Titans are the best team in the AFC?

of yards on offense or anything like that. I get that they've beaten everyone, the Chiefs, the Bills, the Colts, the Rams, but you can have these to to too games with these huge teams like this every single week and just not eventually have some sort of letdown. I'm not picking the Texans to win, let's make it clear, but this is a letdown spot for them. The Titans are eighteenth overall in DVOA, eighteenth, like a middle of the road team. They're down Dereck Henry, as we just said,

they're down Julio Jones. And you look at how they play under Mike Rabel. They play to the level of competition a little bit. They play up when they've got the really good teams, they play down when they've got the bad teams. The offense, again, has not really been good without Derek Henry right now, they haven't gained a ton of yards. It's just been a lot of short fields,

a lot of turnovers. The Texans are terrible. I'm not defending the Texans anyway, shape or fork, but I do think that it should be a different team with Tarni Taylor and we're like whoa. What about You know when before the bye, Torod Taylor came back looked like maybe the worst quarterback in football. We see rust, guys, Okay, we saw it with Russell Wilson. We didn't saw with Aaron Rodgers sort of not practicing for ten days stepping

back in. We took for granted. I think that Taylor was going to be able to step up against an improving Dolphins defenses. I think we are now all understanding, like he turned the ball over a million times, He's not going to do that again, That's not sort of what Tarrod Taylor does. It's a divisional game. Weird things sort of happen in divisional games. This just does not strike me as a game that the Titans are just

going to completely roll. And even if they do win handily, I think you'll have enough with Taylor to have the potential for a backdoor cover. If you can get ten and a half, please go get ten and a half. But even at ten, Mike, I don't know, man. I think the Texas is this game by a field go how ugly? How ugly? Is this probably the ugliest game on the board.

I lost that bet the Texans at the Dolphins prior to their bye week. Yeah, Taylor turned it over so many times. I think it was five and a half. If he just didn't turn over one of those times, I think they cover. The Dolphins at home have been certainly tough. You so with it against the Ravens, I think it's way too many points. It's the perfect flat spot. And listen, I think Tennessee kudos to Rabel and the whole crew. They're due for a stinker here, some negative regression.

They can win this game ugly by three or six points and we still cover, And of course you have the back door. Yes, flat spot, Tyrod Taylor plays better Texans I agree.

off of bye all Texans all day long. I love it. Okay, very quickly, let me recap, Mike, you are taking let me get there. Sorry, I've totally got it. It's fine. I was not jotting, goat, it's definitely not okay. You're taking the Vikings plus two and a half against the Packers, who are taking the Seahawks getting three. No, no, I think it's two and a half now against the Cardinals, and you are taking these Steelers getting five and a

half here against the Chargers. I am taking the Raiders getting one against the Bengals, the Chiefs slaying two and a half against the Cowboys, and of course the greatest pick of all time, the Texans getting ten against the Titans. Let's went through their remaining spreads real quick. Okay, Mike, I'm gonna we'll hold you to it. We'll see where you are right now, because people might be listening to

this after the game. We can know whether or not you're right or wrong or what are you doing tonight? The spread now six and a half with the Falcons getting six and a half from the Pats.

the Falcons are limited their home. But just the fact that the Patriots dominated by so much against the Browns and the Falcons look so bad against the Cowboys makes me lean to a stay away here. I don't trust the Falcons, certainly, but could this be six points? Absolutely? So I'm teasing the Patriots down and I like the Falcons first half plus three and a half, but I'm not going to play the spread I think it's too high.

for me. I don't feel greatly confident in it. But full disclosure, and you can see in the betting pros app and I am on the Falcons plus seven. So I will be watching and vomiting a little bit tonight. The Dolphins are visiting the Jets. They are laying three and a half against the Joe Flacco led Jets. This was three or early in the week. It's now three and a half. What do you think?

We had the Jets down I think thirty to seven in the fourth quarter, had a massive comeback and won that game. So I'm gonna take the points in this game, in this rivalry, and I'll take it with the Jets here. I don't love it because it's Flacco, but I'm gonna grab the points. And when I think is a coin.

Sean Payton and this offensive line. And you know, the Saints of defense is great. So I think Hurts can make a couple of mistakes. He's played well, but I trust the Saints more and I trust Payton again, similar to last week. I'll go back and take the points, and if Kamala plays, I think that line goes the other way. So I like New Orleans and Seowan Payton here on the road.

for them. But yet it's really tough to fade the Saints here after a couple tough losses with how well coached they are, So I lean towards the Saints getting the two, but I'd really much prefer to tease them up. You almost had this game, Mike. You switched it out. The Panthers are now laying three to the Washington football team.

But much like Missouri, I'm the show me state. I need to see mister Gibson do it again here. I don't trust Taylor Heineke. They really have struggled. The Fitzpatrick was healthy. I think Washington could have really been pretty decent this year, but Heinike's been very up and down. The Carolina defense is legit Stefan Gilmour two interceptions, He's not even playing that many snaps. I think that increases here.

There's good fifty to fifty action. I love Carolina if it gets under three to two and a half or two, because I think they keep rolling and they get a win here they've righted the ship and with Cam under center, that's huge. But with three and a half, I'm kind of not crazy about it, so I'd stay away. If it's down to three, it's a close bed. If it's under three, it's an automatic push for me.

I've always just thought the Washington football team should be better than it is, even without Chase Young. So it's pretty much a stay away from me. I could see it at three and a half. I could see the Panthers at under three. Like you said, basically, we're basically seeing it largely the same way. Bills at home seven laying seven against the Colts.

Stefan Diggs got going last week against the Jets. I am laying the points here with Buffalo. It's not one of my top picks, but I don't see a situation where Jonathan Taylor goes crazy. I actually put him as a fade in my fantasy article because I think his price is too high in DFS and the culture going to need Jonathan Taylor to have a big game to keep this game close. Bill's have a lot of weapons. Zach Moss looks back, Dawson Knox is back, which is

huge against the Indianapolis defense. So I'm laying the points. It reminds me of the game earlier in the year where Washington went to Buffalo. It's like nine and a half and people are all over it and the Bills hung in number Colts. If you like the Colts, that means you believe Taylor is going to beat up that run defensive Buffalo, which just hasn't happened outside of the you know immovable object, which is Derrick Henry.

I'm just saying, way Bill's Buffalo is very difficult place to play, especially as it gets late into the year, as we're getting right now. So it is something where I'm a little nervous about it. I'd probably say away, but I kind of lean cults a little bit. If you're getting the hook over seven forty nine ers visiting the Jaguars six and a half points, what do you think?

looked pretty good last week. Is starting to get acclimated, but Elijah Mitchell has always hurt. I don't think Deebo Samuel runs wild like he did in the last game, because I do trust the Jaguars a little bit on the pass defense. So I'll take the points with the Jaguars here on the you know, I'm not ready to lay a touchdown with Jimmy g on the road.

There are sixes out there, there are four and a half's out there. It's all over the place a little bit. So let's just take it at five. What I mean, do you just stay away because we don't know what's going on with Lamar Jackson or what.

of course Harbar's going to adjust. But Lamar is a big unknown for me, so I don't know how he's gonna go, and I want to stay away, but I think it's very viable to tease up the Bears. Because you tease it up now, soppost Lamar Jackson doesn't play. Now, you're getting eleven twelve points of value with Justin Fields and the Bears at home, which is fair. Dornell Mooney has been great, Alan Robinson not as much, and David Montgomery is back, which could mean good things for him.

So even against the tough ra Ravens run defense. So stay away right now, but if you want, you can tease it up.

would take. I like the Buccaneers, probably like to get that number down, but again, laying double digits in the NFL dan is hard, especially in this spot. So probably lean more towards the over because I do think the Giants will put up points, and I know the Buccaneers at home will put up points.

I'll take three, you'll take three. I like it. I'll give you two and a half though, because that's what that's the line is, all right. The Hawks getting two and a half from the Cardinals. Again, that's that's a pick. I'm definitely on as well. And you are taking the Steelers getting five and a half here from the Chargers. I am taking the Raiders getting one from the Bengals, the Chiefs laying two and a half to the Cowboys, and the Texans thankfully getting ten from the Titans. Mic.

Thank you so much for joining me. I appreciate you. Just mind everybody where they can check you out in your work.