Hey, everybody, welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. With me, of course, is Matt Parral. You can find us on Twitter at Dan Harris Adian at Sports Talk. Matt, Matt, how are you on this fine Thursday evening.
I'm rolling up my sleeves as we speak. Let's get to work here. We need to go, all right, I I this week sucks. That means we're gonna have a great week.
Oh my god. I was legitimately thinking the same thing. I felt pretty good about the last couple of weeks, and we have just kind of been treading water and a little bit under treading water where we need to go, and now I feel terrible about it. So I'm ready to just go.
Fine O.
All right, let's do our usual PSAs before we recap last week, can get into this week's games discord? Of course, I'm Matt on how many we're like pushing a thousand.
At this point one thousand. We're about nine to fifty right now for people who are on it. I mean during football games, we're approaching you know, two fifty three hundred people at a time that are on it. It's really cool because I figured out a feature that when I play prop bets, there's an at everyone features and I can send it out to everyone so everyone sees the ads that they make, which I found that to be incredibly cool last night.
So I'm aware because I've seen them them up and I've been like, wait, what's going on. Is Matt trying to talk to me?
Oh?
No, He's just telling everyone in our Discord channel that he's got a prop bet, which is great. I actually that's a great idea because as you know, sometimes I'm the worst person ever. You guys know, I do a ton of fantasy, especially on Sunday mornings. Sometimes I am too late and I don't get my props into Matt.
So worst comes to worse, I'll put on Discord now at everyone, so everybody knows that if I don't get it to Matt by the time he does his YouTube stream at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros but anyway, the best you can go to join our Discord Bettingpros dot com slash chat. We are also giving away an AJ Brown helmet so you can get assigned helmet team get that as well. Again, Betting Pros dot com slash chat. Second, our prop bet cheat cheap bettingpros dot com slash props
consider compare consensus projections to the available props in the market. Again, we're still tweaking it. We're still getting it up to day and everything like that. But you can go check it out offer some good ones, all right. So let's get to every game on this weekend. First, the three cap. Last weeks, once again we have gone three and two. We went three and two for like six weeks straight. Now we're two and three and back to back weeks. I believe we are now twenty what is it, twenty
three and twenty two. I believe overall we're one game up, whatever it is. Fifty one point one percent hit on the Ravens lank two and a half to the Culture, which is a game that I liked that we switched in thankfully for the Chiefs game that we had settled on last week. And we also liked the Saints getting four and a half from the Bucks, which we hit on, but we missed on the Seahawks getting two and a
half from the Bills. The Bills are like, you know, our kryptonite or Matts kryptonite, that's for sure.
The court trill, who I made good money on the bills betting its bills this year.
That's fair, that's fair, I bet. I just mean you hate them. I bet cards, the cards laying four and a half to the Dolphins and the pass lank seven a half to the Jet's goodness, gracious, we're not even gonna talk about that Monday night game. So wait, three eighty fourth out of six eighty nine. We've got ways to go, but not in any way out of it at all. At this point. We've got plenty of time to catch up, but we've got to get going now. So it's gonna take a big week or two or three.
So let's get started right now with a week that I hate, which you hate, which we're gonna go five and oh so start us off. What's your number one pick?
All right? So I'm going to I went through and I tried to kind of game theory based upon the numbers for DraftKings. Okay, and so I have been getting caught because now that I'm in the West Gate and I'm in the DraftKings and I'm in the Circa, these numbers matter right at this point in the year, there's enough algorithms, there's enough information out there where the lines can be very very sharp. This is where it gets
very difficult. This is when the public loses their sh shirt from this week, Week ten on the NFL's very hard. So when there's line discrepancies, I'm gonna be those are going to raise red flags to me. So the bucks are four and a half in our contest, yep, they are five and a half six in climbing as we roll here. I'm not saying it's a bad idea if you get to seven or six and a half to take the Panthers here plus the points. But in our contest it's four and a half. It's below my hated five.
It's a bounce back spot. And I believe the Panthers decided that they wanted to beat the Chiefs so badly that they would go and do anything to have the scalp that they could run around and say, Matt rule a year one beat the defending champs on the road because Christian McCaffrey should have been on a pitch count last week. He wasn't. They forced in the ball so much that they got him hurt. So now that after changing their offense to fit in McCaffrey, they got to
go back to having him not be there. I know that Bridgewater is a cover machine, but that pathetic effort by the They're gonna turn things around this week. I like the Bucks even on the road to lay it down on the Panthers. I'm gonna lay the four and a half tampamize four and a half.
Far and away, my number one pick, Far and away, like maybe the only game that I really was like, yep, this is one I absolutely want. I mean, if I'm if I'm poking a hole in it. It's just that Teddy Bridgewater covers. Teddy Bridgewater is the cover machine. It is what he does. But it just doesn't matter to me. You buying low on the Bucks after that embarrassing performance. Tom Brady off a loss he usually covers. As you
mentioned about McCaffrey, he's out for this game. It's gonna be Mike Davis, who again it played really well for several games, but then he wore down. He played kind of poorly the last three games. So that this is this is no brainer to me, absolutely at four and a half. And you're right that the spread is rising and that that that's a great point, Matt. When do the lines lock at the Circa and and the.
Other one when they come out, I mean basically either Wednesday or third day. It's on COVID problems. So if big COVID issues Circa and Westgate can they can hold on to it. Sometimes I find out exactly who's playing, but mostly it's Wednesday or Wednesday afternoon Thursday, same time as the DraftKings. There's just different. There's discrepancies in the numbers that are quite glaring. Like in the circle of this it's five and a half, so it's four and a half. We're getting extra point here.
Yeah, there's no brainer. On our bed analyzer, it's this spread right now is the consensus sign is minus six, and it's still overwhelmingly on the bucks.
I think seven. You may talk me into the Panthers, but four and a half I'm taking tap.
Yeah, four and a half without that, Okay, So maybe we will agree. I'm coming in here, Matt, and I'm expecting us not to really agree on all of these just because it's so ugly, but you might given the way your preface to this entire week, which is where the public's gonna lose their shirt. Maybe you won't hate all of these. I really don't know. Let me see which one I wanted to start with here. Okay, I'll get one which think you'll like, but we'll see about it.
The forty nine Ers getting nine and a half from the Saints. So here here's number one. I think the Saints are going to be a very public play, if for no other reason, then of course, the very classic. They absolutely destroyed the Bucks and the forty nine Ers look like perhaps the worst team in football on Thursday night. Now, I realize you don't have Jimmy Garoppolo. I realize you don't have George Kittle, But Kyle Shannan is a fantastic coach. He is going to figure out a way to improve
the offense. You're gonna get at least Brandon aiyuk back. Sounds like maybe Deebo Samuel will need another week. The running backs are gonna need another week? Which are I mean? Kiinnon is fine if it gets to work. I think Kendrick Bourne, who's currently on the COVID list, is probably gonna be able to come off. And again, this just strikes me as a very huge overreaction to what happened last week, so I'd love it if it were a ten.
Spreads actually down to nine in our consensus lines, and the people in our bed on liies are leaning towards the Saints. But it's ugly, But I like forty nine ers getting nine and a half. Here.
You could pick all the boards one game, but this is the game you're choosing.
Yeah, that's correct, right.
You want to bet on a backup quarterback, back up, running back, back up, backup, offensive line, backup, backup, defensive line, backup, secondary, and this is the pick against a team that just whipped and looked amazing against the Bucks.
Oh do so? I'm sorry, Just to be clear, are we supposed to be like wow, that team just absolutely destroyed the Bucks after, by the way, nearly losing to the Bears the Bears, Like, let I'm not overreacting to a week. This is what I said. I knew you were going to hate this pack. I almost I tell you said the public, I'm going to be the most will the best line.
I'm willing. I'm willing to listen to it.
Go ahead.
Okay, I wouldn't listen to it and put it in the maybe category. I'm just saying, of all that you have the board to play with the board.
This is how every pick is ugly, Matt, every pick is ugly this week. But yes, let me tell you, what do you think the public split is going to be on this game? What do you think the public well, how much.
I think it'll get to ten and then I mean, I think it just depends on how high the line will go. I think if we get over eleven or twelve, I think you'll see buy back.
But I think you're gonna see by I think I think what you're gonna see. And I could be wrong. And you, you, frankly, you, because you've been out there so much, you have so much great insight, you understand it more. I think there's gonna be a ton of public play on the Saints this week, and I don't think that line's well.
I think on the East Coast. You gotta remember that in Vegas we have a lot of California people, So that tend that tends to keep the California team's lines to be a little bit in check. Yep, because if you go double digits, just people here in Vegas are smart enough and they're from California. A lot of them. They're going, you know what, the Niners are gonna keep
the game close. But my problem is they're gonna have to run the football, and I think that's the one thing the Saints actually do a good job of stopping.
They do so they do they do. I agree, but I think you're gonna give this team off a nationally televised just absolute chi lacking where they didn't have any man. I do fantasy football for a living and I barely I could pick Richie James out of a lineup who had one hundred and seventy yards right and the TOUCHDOWN'M like, that's what they were looking at. I uk is a huge get to have back, as is I expect Kendrick Bourne,
who I know people look here, but it's fine. Look, there was one game this week that I was going to push and it was the Bucks. That's the only one I was going to basically lie in the mat for. There are no other games. So trust me. The fact that I chose this game next, it was only because I was like, with this, maybe fits into Matt's narrative, maybe he'll go for it, So go ahead to your next one.
Just it's just ugly, Okay, so my next one is a number that I would prefer to go down to three, But it's three and a half for our contest, and I don't I don't hate it at three and a half. Again, I would preferred to three. But I think the Houston Texans are done. And I think if you look at the weather, okay, so this is what it's gonna be bad, windy again, nasty and cold, okay, which is not Houston Texans weather. Ye not. You can't fill the ball deep again, Okay.
So the same logic that we took this took the Raiders to beat the Browns is the same logic. I'm taking the Browns to win here because you're gonna get Nick Chubb back, looks like. So you have two running backs that are decent, and I don't think David Johnson's questionable for this game for the Texans, I don't think they can run the football all that well, I don't. I mean, Deshaun Watson might be their best running back in this game.
I just think give Duke Johnson some credit. Matt Duke Johnson is fine, okay, perfectly.
He's not gonna beat the brown by himself on the road, Okay, three out of that rather the three. But Cleveland minus three and a half, I think from a pick play I don't know if I'll bet it. I might bet it, But from a pick play perspective, I like Cleveland to cover that three and a half point line.
Yeah, I'm on the other side. I'm on the other side.
Wow, I'm not gonna be The Texans play a two and six football team.
Explain this to me, Okay, we like I mean, DVOA is not the be all and all right of teams, of course, but it's Aguell. The Texans are a better team by DVOA than the Browns. I don't think the Browns are really that good of a football team here, Matt, especially when you're without Odell Beckham junior. Now, I get they're gonna get Chubb back, They're gonna be able to run the ball. Absolutely, But again, if this were.
You believe in DVOA, then then you know that the rushing defense for the Texans is one of the worst in the whole.
Fact that the Browns can run on anybody. But I agree they're gonna run the Raiders.
That's why I put the Raiders. They couldn't run on the Raiders.
All right, that's fair. But with Chubb, who I do expect to be back here, they're gonna be able to run with him and hunt. No Beckham, I think is a bigger loss than kind of weird, fully.
Right, But in this weather condition, he wouldn't be a factor anyway.
Yeah, I I first of all, as far as I can tell, Matt, and you tell me what's the exact forecast, because this is.
Not wins okay, which is the biggest issue of anything when it comes to Yeah, it's gonna be cold, it's gonna be windy, it's gonna be like the same weather conditions as the last time the rate we talked about the Browns with the Raiders, and we were all over the Raiders and we won that game out right, sixteen to six. So I think the under is in play in this game major But and I think with the under in play, that favors the Browns.
Yeah, I just don't. I don't know, man. And you know what's funny. You know what's funny, Matt, And it's if people listening to this, I don't know if they listen to our fantasy podcast. We did a DFS show today with Chris Rabahn of the Action Network. Do you know, Chris, Yeah, of course this is great. Legitimately, Matt, this was both of our like one of our better picks on the board. It randomly came up because we were talking about fantasy and he was like, I like the Texans getting three
and a half. And I was like, yes, I'm gonna use this when I talk about it with Matt Barral on our show today. The fact that Chris also likes them against them, I don't know, man. I think this is just gonna be a close game. I agree that the wind is gonna be bad. Deshaun Watson, though, can run certainly. And I also I think Duke Johnson is just as good as David Johnson at this point in his career. I realized that he's never been given the
rock to sort of do what he can do. But I do not I do not view this as a downgrad. I think they can jump off the ball a lot. I think you're, you know, maybe, yeah, it's gonna hamper the constant deep shots, but you know, the Browns can't stop the pass, you know, between Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks. I just view this as a very close game. If it was under a field goal, I might go for it, but with the hook. No, don't like it. I don't like it. So we're off. We're off. This is an
ugly week, we know. Oh boy, you're gonna hate this one. Ready, let's got your first one.
I might read hit your second one.
I had to think about it, Matt. My other one that I was going to bring up instead of my first one was the Texans getting three and four. So you you see where we're all them. Let's actually see where a bed analyzer has this one. I just want to know exactly where it is because it strikes me. Oh, it is basically split. It's basically split at three and a half. It's fifty six percent in favor of Houston. I am one of that fifty six percent because I've
already put in my picker. Okay, you know what really feels like a great idea this week? Matt betting a team that doesn't know how to win and cannot win a single game no matter what they do against the team that's riding super super high after two giant wins.
And that is the charge where you're taking the charges of the road to get the charger.
There is no, two and a half. There is no way from the Dolphins.
That it's not even worth having having this conversation right now. This is such a big problem for the Chargers when it comes to going on the road on the East Coast. And you could say, well, it's Anthony Lynn getting away from the public, getting away from the media, and they might be able to go and win a game like this, But against that defense, I forget too, But forget against that defense. Uh uh, that's a scary that's a scary game.
To go ahead. I love the Herbert you know, he wants to prove his draft pick against tu a Angle. I love all that. But that defense for the Dolphins is legitimate.
The defense for the Dolphins is good. The defense for the Dolphins is good, I agree, and you know, because they're basically scoring defensive touch on stuff like that. But they're not. I mean, first of all, Arizona should have won that game, you know, for many reasons, but they outgained them significantly in yardage. I think the Dolphins have defense scores.
When you when you get a defensive score and back to back weeks, you win most weeks like that's okay, that's huge.
Time are you are you thinking on a defensive score in the game.
Maybe it I'm just saying it's possible. That's what. That's why I'm scared of the game, because it's like, oh, I mean Herbert gets hit a lot. I mean he's under pressure. I think the number. I think he's like number three in the NFL right now in terms of passing under pressure. I mean, the dude is great, but he gets pressure because his offensive line doesn't block anybody.
Yeah, no, I understand. We to look without Preston Williams. Okay, they've got DeVante Parker. I mean, Toua looked good to be To be fair, he looked good. They rolled him out of the pocket, they let him use his legs a little bit. That was good. I just don't think. I mean, they have no running backs. I don't know which one of their fifty, you know, guy off the street running backs is gonna be running the ball. I just don't trust them to be able to put up
a ton of points. And look, I'm not gonna I'm not gonna stand up there again.
One. Dolphins are on my list, by the way, I have Dolphins myst two and a half on my line.
Right Well, where we're off to a rocky start and go to your next go to your next one. Hopefully we find some games that were at least on the same side.
Of Okay, I don't like this number, but I'm gonna play it anyway. But because I think there's a chance they win the game outright, Big Ben's on schedule to play for the Pittsburgh Steelers. That's great news for me. I like the Bengals plus six and a half to potentially win this game outright. I think this is an interesting matchup with the Bengals match up better.
And it's good news for you that Ben is gonna play.
Yes, Ben Roethlisberger is not playing well at all. His number rat.
You think it's better for the Bengals if Ben plays than Mason Rudolph.
Yeah, because I think in terms of the way that they'll approach the game, I think without with Rudolph, they'll be more conservative, they'll run the football more, the defense will know they have to play better. I just think that this is a chance here for this. I think they could win the game outright, but if not, they'll keep the game close. I would prefer seven, but I'll take the six and a half points and I'll take the Bengals all right.
So I guess what I will say is, I don't despise this pick, like I'm not gonna I'm gonna put on the maybe list for sure, and especially given where we are, it's probably getting in there. I would agree that I would prefer it at seven. I do like faiting the Steelers because I don't think that the Steelers are nearly as good as you know what they've shown now, especially without Devin Bush. I don't think the defense like it. Although are they gonna have Williamson from the Jets. If
he is, he's gonna help the defense. But yep, doesn't matter to you if Mixing plays here, because it sounds like maybe he won't even off.
The doesn't because I'm betting on Joe Burrow.
Okay, yeah, I mean it's I would like it at seven. I'd like it at seven, but I think I'm on the right side.
I think that it's seven and every of the contest. That's why I pissed me off. I got back. I was like, it's seven in both the Circa and in the Westgates seven, six and a half an hours. I'm gonna I'm gonna take it anyway, But I really I don't like the six and a half with seven defense. It would be it was seven, it would be my number one plack pick.
Yeah, I mean yeah. This strikes me as as the Bengals finding a way to cover at the end of the game. I don't think they're gonna do Yeah, yeah, all right, I'll put in the maybe. But given where we are the most likely, yes, because I do think that's the right side at fifty eight percent. By the way, people on the Bengals and our bet analyzer for the Dolphins, by the way, since I didn't say it sixty are
on the wrong side. And on the Dolphins, I'll just get all right, let's keep getting ugly, then, Matt, Let's get really ugly. This is actually an interesting one because you make a lot of money off the Bills. How do you feel about the Cardinals laying the two and a half to the Bills.
I think it's the right side. I'm just petrified of it. You know, I don't like Josh Allen. I had a long I had a long conversation with somebody from Pro Football Focus on my radio show today. Who's arguing the
other side, Who was arguing the Bills. Yeah, and I was arguing I was arguing the Cardinals, and just match up wise, he thinks that because of the Manda Man defense of the Cardinals play in their secondary, they're gonna have a real tough time stopping the wide receivers with pristine conditions for Buffalo, and this factor is in better for the Bills because they play you know, they play a warm weather style of football more than a more
than a cold weather style of football they do. Yeah, so they're in Arizona, they're in the Dome, and they're against that defense that does give up big yards in the past play. So I'm with you on the Cardinals. So if you want to hit the Cardinals, I'm okay with it. I just have some people who are telling me that we're on the wrong side.
Yeah, okay, I'm gonna put in the maybe category. I look, I don't love I don't love any games anymore, but I think that it's the right side here. I think again, it's a little bit of a you know, just kind of the very basic Bilo Sell high. I think the public is probably gonna like the Bills here after they destroyed the Seahawks in that game. The Cardinals had that horrible loss to the Dolphins, which again they could have
very easily won. I think the Bills traveling cross country a homefield advantage doesn't mean anything really anymore, but I do think cross country trips, and you brought up the fair point about the Chargers coming cross country and again harder west to go east. But still it is something where I think, you know off that win. It's just it's a decent time to sell the Bills. But I don't feel great about it, so we'll put it in
the maybe category on the Cardinals. All Right, you got anything else that you're remotely feeling?
One more game? Okay, this is horrible. Yes, just gonna tell you this. This is my last on my list. It's it's a play that even I don't like. But it's a numbers play. Patriots in primetime catching seven and a half points against the Ravens.
Oh goodness.
Here's the here's the thought. Okay, the thought is this, Lamar Jackson against Bill Belichick. Defense has done pretty much nothing. Okay, he has, Belichick has his number figured out. Even if Gilmour doesn't play. He didn't practice today. But even if Gimour doesn't play. I'm not really all that worried about it. The biggest question I've got is whether or not the
Patriots can move the football against the Ravens defense. But if that's my question, getting seven and a half means there's a chance the Patriots are in this game, and there's a chance that they have an opportunity to maybe have, you know, a six point loss. It's a you know, twenty seven to twenty one type of loss here at
home to the Ravens. The Ravens don't blow out anybody, and Lamar Jackson, I'm gonna trust Belichick to have a defensive scheme enough that they don't give up big plays in the run game and they make him throw, and as we know, when he has to throw, he's not done very well this season. So it's a bet on Belichick. It's a bet on their defense, not really their offense. But give me the seven and a half, I'll take the Patriots in primetime.
Was that the same defense that let Joe Flacco throw three touchdown passes?
Yeah, but Stefan Gilmour wasn't there, And arguably you can make a case that Flacco is a much better passer than Lamar Jackson. Yeah, okay, I mean what would you argue that point? Would you if you had to throw a pass for your life if you had Lamar Jackson throwing or Joe Flacco throwing? Who would you take?
I think I just you know, right, make sure my will was there.
Joe Flacco any day of the week. And you know it's okay, Joe Flacco maybe not mister elite, but Joe Flacco can throw the football a heck a lot better than mar Jackson.
Can regardless, regardless, And again, we don't know if Gilmore is gonna play here anyway, because I was one of your points. But even if it doesn't really matter because what you know, it's not as if you're like, oh god, they're gonna what are they gonna take away? Hollywood Brown. Hollywood Brown hasn't been involved in you know, anything games or whatever. I get. I get sort of the theory of it, but man, Matt, watching that team on Monday
night just look absolutely ridiculous. Like, if you're the Ravens and you're defending this team, what are you? What are you worried about? You see, maybe you double team Jacobe Myers if you absolutely have to, and you just guard against the run. What what in the world? How are they going to move the ball? How are they going to camp any points camp?
That's the only that you have to let Cam go off and you and you have to let Cam run the football. And I just I think that this team is going to have a game plan like they do every week where everyone goes, how are the Patriots going to do it? And then they do it, and then and then Belichick is like, oh, that's right, it's Belichick. Yeah, I don't know in the game. I'm just saying this that the hook theres is a big deal to me. Seven and a half is a big deal to me.
Yeah, man, I don't know. Let me check the bed out of all. Let me see where everybody's at, just to know where we are. Sixty eight percent on the Ravens seven without the hook, without the hook, So.
See, the hook matters to me, and a half matters to me.
I would just like it on the record that you crushed me for going after the forty nine ers and you're willing to go with the Patriots.
Yeah, because I know, Wait, how many rings does Shanahan have? Oh?
Man, are we have a Belichick? Are we gonna have to debate. Look, Belichick is what happened.
What happened is the biggest game of his life last year. What happened? Belichick has right got he lost that game.
Okay, Valichack has the same number of rings that he had on Monday night when he nearly let the one of the historically bad Teamsall do.
You know what to just do against the Patriots? You know that, you know what the rivalry is like between those two.
Just stop. You need to stop making excuses.
To a team. I'm not debating that point. I'm just talking about this from a point spread perspective. I'm talking about winning and losing here, I'm talking about keeping it within seven points. It's a big.
Difference to be as fair as But I don't have a lean at all on this game. I guess you know, to be very because you're not wrong. We talked we you know, switched to the Ravens last week, and for a while that looked like the wrong side. And maybe if Johnthan Taylor doesn't fumble early like that and kind of change the entire tenor of the game. Although Gus Edward's fumbled on the goal line as well, so maybe not but yeah, that game didn't look good and the Ravens.
Did you tweet out that the Ravens offense is broken or something? Somebody tweeted out.
I feel I think it is broken.
Person, Yeah, I think you might have tweeted that out somebody.
Game it looked broken.
Now, that's what I mean.
During the game, they just can't do anything. I mean, I mean, look the Colts defense. We'll see it, We'll see it tonight. Colt's defense is good. It's on paper, it's paper good. And and Lamar Jackson made them look like, you know, the Steel Curtain.
Yeah, all right, let's keep talking about every other game here and just see whether or not we get to anywhere that we like, because right now we're legitimately looking at one game that we like, maybe two games that we don't absolutely despise, and then everything else is kind of up in the air. So let's let's just talk through each of the games. I'm not giving you a side when I list, I'm just gonna list the favorite first, so don't take from it that I'm I'm asking for
a side. How do you feel about the Rams laying one and a half points to the Seahawks in Los Angeles.
It's just a tough bounce back spot because I think Seattle they turned the ball over so many times last week. I think they're angry about it. I'm just concerned if that, you know, four leaf clover is gonna wilt there for Seattle, with how many games they've won on the last second and you know, getting getting to all the breaks, is it now going to go against them and they're going to start to cough the football up and turn the football over and come back down to Earth. So I mean,
I like Seattle. I think Seal's the right side in that game, but I'm concerned about it.
I actually think the Rams might be the right side here. And I think, really what it is that I'm no longer scared to go against the Seahawks because that defense is historically bad, Yeah, historically bad. And you know, Cooper Cups will banged up in this game, and you know the Rams are but you know, I don't I don't
think Jalen Ramsey can necessarily shut down DK Metcalf. But they did know the Rams are really good defense, and they're they're underrated a bit, and you're giving you're giving McVeigh two weeks to prepare for this act.
Look, the Rams are might picked to win the division. So if you wanted to, if you wanted to have this be one of our picks, I wouldn't fight you on it because I think I just I'm concerned about the I'm concerned about what happened last week. Yeah, if Seattle doesn't turn the football over, it turns into a shootout, and then I'm trusting Jared Goff to be a shootout, which is like true, Oh, but you're right. The Rams
defense is tremendous. It's the strength of their defense. It was a circular team and if they could get a lead and then keep the ball away from Ross, then yeah, I mean the recipe is there for a Rams victory.
All right, let's put it on the maybe gross list. How about the Bears laying two and a half points to the Vikings in Chicago on Monday night football?
And so the stat is this going into tonight, which it factors in teams who are playing at home against divisional opponents that are catching points are twelve and one against the spread. Yep, so the Bears factor into this. So if I was going to take a play, not that I'm going to go strictly on just on a trend, but I think it's a decent trend to look at.
I would take the Bears at home against the Vikings because I don't think the Vikings can do much else besides doubt and Cook and the Bears probably gonna take him away.
By the way, I said that wrong. I apologize the Bears are getting to an a half points, not laying to an a half points.
Yeah, yeah, I said it.
I'm just saying for the listeners. You knew it correctly, You knew it correctly. Yeah. I kind of don't mind the Bears here, Matt. I mean, I'm a little I'd like Dave Montgomery to play. We don't know, because he's got the concussion. But Kirk Cousins especially, you know, in primetime in Chicago. I don't know. I kind of like it's gross because I don't want to really back and I've been fading the Bears quite a bit. But I do think that they're going to be able to keep
this close and probably win it in the end. The Vikings just are not a good team. Their secondary is not good. You know, Nick Foles is willing to take shots. You know, Mooney's kind of coming into his own a little bit. I would I'd be willing to take the Bears here if you came in and said I like the Bears, I'd be willing to do it.
But in primetime I don't mind it.
I I yeah, all right, let's put it on the maybe list. Then we've got NonStop Maybes going on.
I love it.
Okay, hold on, what have we talked about yet?
Philly and New York and Jacksonville and Green.
Bay Fit and the Lions. Let's let's get to Let's get to Philly and New York. The Eagles are laying nine and three and a half. Pardon me, three and a half to the Giants in New York. By the way, with the with the Bills and the Bears and Vikings, fifty percent our bet analyzer are on the Vikings, just so everybody knows. Okay, So yeah, what do you think the Eagles laying three and a half to the Giants in.
New York's same conversation. In the last time, it's a home dog in division. Give me the Giants post three and a half. If I bet the game, it's Giants post three and a half all day over the Eagles.
That's how I feel, too like, and I don't love it by any means, right, but that's how I feel. If you're giving me if if I had any confidence in Daniel Jones at all to just not bungle it up completely and blow the game at like the last minute, I would take them to keep it closed. I think people are gonna be like Eagles off bye, here they come, blah blah blah, And I think you're just gonna still be like, why is Carson Wentz holding the ball for eight seconds and throwing it off his back foot into
triple coverage? So another game where I'll put in the maybe list. I mean, the Giants getting three and a half whatever, I mean, give us some fun here.
This is what matters there to me.
Yeah, the hook matters exactly. Okay, let's go to the next game. The Lions laying four and a half to Washington.
I hate this game so much. Yes, there's nothing in this game. I like, there is no way you can convince me to take a slide in this game besides just taking the points because both teams are horrible. So if I had to bet, it'll take the Washington team. But I hate I mean, I just absolutely hate this game.
You couldn't force me to take this game legitimately under any circumstances. There's not I don't have a single feeling about this game other than runaway Packers laying three and a half thirteen and a half. Goodness, I'm so sorry Packer's laying thirteen and a half to the Jaguars. Before you do, hold on, I do want to see if our bet Atalyzer is where it looks at right now in that game. No, that is legitimately the most even
split game on everybody. I bet you it's also going to be the least bet game of the weekend because nobody wants to go there. But it's fifty four percent if anybody cares is backing the Washington football team Lange four and a half. Anyway, the Packers laying thirteen and a half to the Jaguars in Green Bay, I.
Mean, how do you? I mean, this is the ultimate professional bet. Okay, professionals are going to lay thirteen and a half just blindly, right, just blindly because it's thirteen and a half points in the NFL, and they pay their players too. But I don't know how in the world you could take Jacksonville on the same level. I don't know how you lay nearly two touchdowns at home for this Packers team. I just don't trust either one
of these teams to cover. So if I had to bet it, I would say Green Bay based on quarterback play, but no way would I ever take it.
Yeah, if there's wind in this game as well, I believe this is the other wind game. I think there were two. I believe this was the other one. I could be wrong, but yeah, like I can't, I don't know. I did not learn anything about Jake Luton last week, like I was.
He played throw. Yeah, I don't know how much you saw him in college, but that kid can throw a football.
He can throw. He can throw and if you you know, although he doesn't move all that well, that was a nifty spin move to get to the ends on there against the Texans, But it was the Texans defense. I have no idea what he's going to look like in Lambeau against a wrested Packers defense. So really not a game I want to trust on either side. I think the only game that we haven't talked about is the Broncos getting five and a half from the Raiders in
Las Vegas. It's five and a half. So yeah, I know you hate the Raiders.
This is one of my bets of the week for the Daily Juice. I've already bet it. The over in this game is gonna hit. Ah. Okay, the over is fifty. This is I have no idea why the number is fifty. It is bizarre to me why this number is so low. Denver is not going to get any I mean, the Raiders are going to get any pressure on Drew Locke and the one thing that Drew Lot can do is throw with a clean pocket like most quarterbacks can. The Raers, on the other hand, are gonna run the ball and
throw the ball deep. I think Ruggs is a monster game. I think you see Waller have a monster game. I just think points points points in this game. I hate the five and a half point numbers, so I won't go near it. But if I had to lay it, I would lay it with Vegas.
Yeah. I don't have a great feel for it, to be fair, I don't. I think I agree with the over, but I don't love it. Meanwhile, the consensus spread is down to four, which is interesting. I think if I had to go on one side. I might go with the Broncos just to cover, you know, do like a backdoor cover, because that's all I mean. Right, if the Raiders get up ahead, you know, Drew Locks is gonna go absolutely insane and just start throwing not.
I think it's a thirty twenty seven type of game, one way or the other. So I think there's fifty. I think it gets through fifty pretty easily. So that's all I prefer the over in this game. Then the side.
All right, let's get really gross and talk about where we are. So here's what I'm gonna do. We know we're taking the Bucks laying four and a half to the Panthers. Yeah, I'm going to add in the Bengals getting six and a half from Pittsburgh because that was like the least yuck I could get to and we were on the right side. Okay, hold on, let me just ride it in. Okay. So these are the other games, Matt, and you can let me know if I've missed one.
These were the other games where we weren't, like essentially on different sides, which means we'd have to pick three of these gross four games. The Cardinals laying two and a half to the Bills, the Rams laying one and a half to the Seahawks, the Bears getting two and a half from the Vikings, and the Giants getting three and a half from the Eagles.
Rams Bears, Giants.
Rams Bears, Giants. I am okay with that, actually, and if I am going to be as transparent as possible, all three of those were in my list of h I can live with this. That's where they were. They were all in my list. The Rams laying one and a half to the Seahawks, the Bears getting two and a half points from the Vikings, and the Giants getting three and a half points from the Eagles. I like the Giants with the hook. I think the Bears are gonna win out right, and I think the Rams are
gonna win out right. So that's where we are. I feel pretty gross about it, which means it's probably a five and oh week.
But I like points. I mean, at this point in the year, I start to like points because the public starts getting all wacky with favorites of the dark past lay in points and I'll do it. I like taking points, but week ten on I like taking short favorites and points.
Yep, all right, well, those of you who are listening can understand that I am taking the Texans getting three and at myself, I haven't already bet this the Texans getting three and a half and the forty nine ers getting nine and a half. So that is how gross it's going to be right now for this weekend. Okay, good enough, good enough for me. Everybody, make sure you are listening to the Daily Juice podcast, which is Matt's daily podcast. It is, I dare say it the greatest
podcast in the world. I really love it. It's every day, It's fantastic. Matt does a great job breaking down pretty much every single sport. Again Betting Pros like comp slash chat, join our discord channel and there are our workspace or whatever you call it at this point, and again you can win a sign a J Brown Titan's helmet hopefully is a big game tonight because I need him. And also don't forget that you can check out our cheat sheet creators what we call it?
What do we call our pret cheat sheet.
Prop bet cheat sheet, I'm still learning the name over at Bettingpros dot com slash props. And we'll be back next week bringing down the week eleven straight, hopefully after a big week. We'll talk to you then