Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I am your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Adie with me is Matt Perrault, host of the Daily Juice podcast. You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt.
Matt.
What's up?
Hi, NFL football? It's here. I can't believe it's here, but it's here.
I said it on our Fantasy Pros Football podcast this morning. My wife told me that I just let out a big giggle, like I turned on the TV and I just giggled, and I was like, Okay, that's fine. It was amazing, And I don't know about you, It didn't feel that weird last night. Like I didn't really notice that there weren't that many people in the stands and stuff like that felt normal.
Yeah. I think what I equated it to was like a blowout game in the fourth quarter. We're like, we've seen games where guys are playing and there's nobody there, or there's like eighteen thousand there, and you know, chief fans did their best to be heard and yelled and yelling and screaming. So yeah, I mean, I've said this since the the you know, sports pandemic has started. When it comes to the UFC events on TV, I don't notice fans not being there. You know, occasionally I will.
In basketball, it looks like a two K game to me, so it's like, you know, it looks normal to me watching it on TV. I think if I was there, I might say it's different. But from a television viewership perspective, well, I don't know. I mean, look, it's sports on TV. Man, I'm good.
Other than Andy Reid's you know, welding mask that he basically was wearing the entire time, you would't have noticed the difference. I also felt really good about cashing in on my Chiefs plus one hundred and one points bet that we got on that special offer from draftings, which is why you want to listen to us and listen to maths podcasts The Daily Juice, which is one of my favorite listens fifteen minute podcasts first thing in the morning every day. Got a ton of offers when they
come out, so that was one of them. The Chiefs plus one hundred and one points not a joke at minus one ten.
Yeah. I talked to Johnny Avello from DraftKings on my radio show, and he told me that they did ten million dollars. Yeah, that was their handle for that game, which is playoff game esque for DraftKings. It was their biggest NFL game. But he's young, he's been around for a long time, so but ten million is a pretty good handle for one game for DraftKings.
Yeah, you bet. Okay. So this is a little later in the week and we're going to be doing it. We're usually going to record on Wednesday, which is what we had planned to do. It was my fault. We had a crazy schedule. Matt is fitting this in in between moving, which he is doing the second. We are done with this, So let me break down here what we're gonna do a little bit on the weekly show. We've got something kind of cool. Matt and I are
doing a picks contest together over at DraftKings. The DraftKings Pick Them Championship first prize, a million dollars guaranteed. You have to make five picks every week except for two. You get to take two weeks off from weeks one through sixteen. It's a little weird. So there's gonna be some game theory on there. Separately, Matt is doing a separate big money picks contest. So we're we're gonna be breaking down our choices from us as a team, and
Matt is also we're not going to necessarily agree. I'm not necessarily going to agree with what Matt is doing. Maybe I will, we'll see. But Matt, tell everybody about your contest that you're in. I will tell everybody a little bit about DraftKings and then we will get to it.
Sure. So I'm in the Circa Million and that is a three million dollar guarantee which has seen a ton of publicity and a lot of attention here in Vegas because of that overlay the three million dollars being guaranteed first place prize a million every four weeks with the quarter poll awards, it comes out with one hundred and fifty thousand dollars for first place in the award, second and third place as well. So this is five games against the spread. The difference between the Circa and the
DraftKings contest. DraftKings does not make you enter all five of the picks in if you want to play Thursday DraftKings. Circa does so. If I want to play the THURSDA Night game like last night, which I didn't play in the Circa. We bet it for the Daily Juice, but not with the Circa. You had to put in all the picks for Sunday, and you just can't do that given the uncertainty today in sports and with COVID nineteen injuries and whatnot. I mean, look at the injuries that
popped up today for games. It's a bad move. It's a losing move to play Thursdays in the Circa. But for DraftKings they let you put one in and then four on Sundays. So circa rules are a bit more restrictive than what we're seeing with the DK rules.
Yeah, and you can also get them in on Sunday morning. I think Circa locks on Saturday, Matt correct.
Right, three pm Pacific time on Saturday, right.
So you get a little extra and you don't have to put them in the DraftKings contest all at once. If you don't want it, you can submit them sort of as you go. And again it's a little weird because it's only fourteen of sixteen weeks. You get to take two weeks off, so you can be looking at a tough one makes for a lot of game theory. Matt's going to go all through the seventeen weeks of the NFL season, So that's what we're going to be doing.
So Matt, why don't we start like this? And there may be, by the way, different odds because I don't know what the Circa odds are versus the DraftKings.
Oh they're different, Yeah, they are different.
Okay, good, So why don't we get started here at your Circa Sports pick?
Matt.
By the way, Mat, I legitimately like he sent a couple of games that he's feeling. I agree with two of them. I want not sure about the third necessarily, but we're legitimately going to be working at our picks on this podcast. So welcome to a little you know, behind the scenes. It's gonna be a lot of fun. So, Matt, but you feel confident on you said at least four of your five picks over at the circle, right.
Yeah, So okay, we can start with the Cardinals here catching six and a half on the road at the forty nine ers, and I think there's a good shot that the Cardinals win this game outright, And I'm really high on this team. I'm high on Murray I'm high on the offense. The defense for the forty nine ers
not nearly as good. I do believe there's a hangover from a Super Bowl perspective, but catching six and a half given the way the Cardinals played the last two games of last year against the forty nine Ers, played in pretty tight They covered once, they didn't cover in the second game. But this is a Cardinals team that I think has a ton of offensive firepower and I look, Garoppolo is a fun quarterback, and they're going to run
the ball like they always do. But I think this is a Cardinals team that's going to be explosive and really dangerous on a week to week basis. So six and a half is the number of the circa. I believe DraftKings is seven right for that game?
No, I think DraftKings is six and a half when they finally okay, yeah put it.
Up, Yeah, okay. So I still like six and a half. I mean, I would prefer it at seven, But six and a half for the Cardinals is my first play on that. Do you want to go through all four?
All fa let's talk about it. Let's talk about that one for me very briefly, because I lean Cardinals, but I don't feel strongly about it. That was the one that you sent over. I was like, ooh, interesting, I'm not exactly Now it's worth noting that there is some concern over whether or not this game is at least going to be played in San Francisco right because of the air quality. I think if it gets past some certain number which it is bumping up against, they cannot play.
I don't know if they would move it to a neutral stadium, or whether or not they could move that to Arizona even like who knows what they're gonna do, So there is some uncertainty. I guess part of what worries me a little bit is just the continuity with San Francisco, where there's a lot of that, and that is a huge thing right now coming in now there's continuity with Arizona. But obviously you've added DeAndre Hopkins, so
I lean Arizona. But I want to put that one to the side for DK because I think I'm going to be more on top of your other pick. So who's your next pick?
Next pick is the Falcons at home against the Saints. I am a big contrarian. Better sorry, sorry, I'm a big contrarian better and eighty nine percent of the bets and the money are coming in here on Seattle minus thre two Falcons with Matt Ryan a healthy Julio Jones. They've made some changes in the offseason. They looked up their defense. They'll have fans in the stands. We don't know.
I think it's like fifteen thousand fans are going to be there, so much like what we saw last night with the fans for Kansas City, I think they're going to create at least some type of buzz inside of that stadium with the dome and whatnot. On a fast track Seattle with some questions, some injuries. I know what, Russell Wilson, I understand that, but I give you two points. Give me a home dog in week one with a cross country flight for Seattle.
Yeah, this is another one where I I would lean Atlanta just because it's such a public play right now to beyond Seattle. Because other than that, I agree. I mean, I think Atlanta is their offense in particular, is going to be good. They haven't yet had the rash of defensive injuries that they seem to have every year, but man, it is just so incredibly difficult for me to bet against Russell Wilson in what amounts to a pick them right. I mean, that's basically what it is, because he just
makes them better than they are. He always does, and I think that you know, it's not a terrible matchup. So that one again, putting that one to the side. Those are you two? Go to your next one.
My favorite play of the entire weekend is the Saints minus three miles three and a half. I don't really mind either one three and a half. Clearly it is a difficult number because.
Is it three and a half?
By the way in the circa, it's three and a half in the circle, I believe.
Okay, yeah, it's the same. It's the same with DraftKings.
So here's my theory on this. You're talking about the best team in the football in the Saints, the best continuity. You're talking about a defense for this team. Look, I understand that you could hang all last year on James Winston if you want, but I'm not gonna do that. I'm not hanging the entire season on Winston's turnovers and picks. They had issues last year. This is the Saints. I
know there's a contract question with Kamara. But this is the same thing I thought last night with the Chiefs, Like everyone's looking for a reason to bet the dog and they can talk themselves into it and then they get their doors blown off. Saints are gonna win this game by at least seven points in my mind, Saints mins three and a half. I got no problem laying that.
Ah, yeah, I'm with you. This is one like sorry, I don't know if you want something profound. Also, by the way, I don't know if you just saw they just announced Mike Evans doubtful. Yes, huge, so that that is certainly big. This also strikes me as a pretty public play on the Bucks, right, Yeah, I'm.
Huge on the Bucks, huge other Bucks. But I think it's gonna be a good two way on this. But I think I do think that the initial public play is Tom Brady Gronk. You know that this is you know, Shack Barrett. I mean, I think that's that's the public side immediately, because everybody wants to see Tom Brady do well.
Yeah, no, I agree, I think you know, the Saints are. I think this is the Saints here, man. I think they're gonna win the Super Bowl. I think it breeze, last last Hurrah. So I you know we have talked a little bit about that, So okay, I'm not gonna write that in with Penn. I'm gonna write that in with Fence. Look, because I do like it. That is a good pick. So probably we're going with the both. Which is your fourth pick.
Here, Titans Monday Night minus two and a half on the road at the Denver Broncos Court and Sutton goes down with an injury.
Courtland's also doubtful.
He's not. I don't think you'll play personally. I do not like Drew Locke. I know they're going to rebuild around him and they think he's the guy. I could be wrong about that, but I am a Monster fan like you, and I agree on the Titans. I have the Titans. They're my pick to win the AFC. I'm going massive contrarian here, not the Ravens, not the Chiefs. I'm going Titans to the Super Bowl here against the Saints, with the Saints winning it. I just think this is
going to be a tough situation. Without von Miller, I thought the line would have moved more than it did. It flip flopped initially when it first came out, it was minus three for the Denver Broncos. Then Miller was out, and then it flipped to minus two and a half. But the fact that we don't delay three points, it's two and a half all over, the Titans minus two and a half.
Yeah, so I like this one too, and for basically all the reasons you said again, teams with a ton of continuity coming into the season, Like, that's really what I like early in the season. That really makes me excited. That's what you've got, certainly with the Titans. There are two things I want to say. One is just to be clear. You know, we offer the consensus lines over our bettingpros dot com. We're talking about our contest lines,
the consensus lines. There is a minus two out there to the extent that matters to you at bet MGM. Everybody else is minus two and a half. The one thing that worries me mad about this is the Broncos, however they are on the season, are always really really good at home early in the season. Early in the season is when they are nearly like I mean, not last year, but you know, nearly unbeatable at home. Makes me a little concerned. About it. However, with that said,
I'm telling with you on this one. This when I'm would lock in in Pen, I just want to give both sides of it because I do think again, give me continuity on these first games teams that you know aren't making any big changes, and the Titans are like identical, so they're totally good to go at this point. And again, I just think that the Broncos, while the offense might be good eventually, I'm not a huge Drew lockman, It's
going to take time for them to get there. So for me, totally with you locking in it in Pen. Titans minus two and a half in the road. Okay, that's four. But you mentioned a different game to me that I thought you would have liked because it's one of my favorites. And this is from a Jets fan, and that's the Bills laying six and a half to the Jets. Are you off that? I know you do not love the Bills. You have been just pounding that for two years. So are you off that now or is.
That off of it? A not off? But these Division games in Week one, there is a line a trend, which doesn't mean anything, but there is a trend that about divisional dogs in Week one have covered it a pretty good right, So the six and a half has given me a little pause on the Bills. But so the games I'm debating right now are the Bills minus six and a half the Rams plus three?
Yep?
And in the Draft Kings contest, the Bengals are plus three and a half? Are they not?
Yes, they are, okay, But by the way, the Rams are only two and a half the three.
Yeah, that's that. That would that would get me off of it in the Draft Kings contest. But talk me through this. Why are the Bengals only three and a half point underdogs? I mean, why aren't there a bigger underdog there? What? What am I not seeing there in that game? Where? I mean, this is Joe Burrow, this is his first start, and this is the this is the Chargers. Now okay, this is the Chargers with that defense, and I know they Derwin James got hurt.
I get that, and it's a big loss, Irwin James, it is.
But I what am I missing here? Why aren't the Chargers a bigger favorite?
Okay? The first thing is to be clear the consensus line. Actually, Now, Matt and every book I'm looking at. So it's not like, oh, this is a it's at three now, it's at three now, Pouncy is out. Pouncy has been declared out there, so that that can make a difference. I don't know. I really don't know. Look, we like this Chargers team. We talked about it. Like the big joke you and I kept making is like, man, they always get injured, but
while they're healthy, they're going to be really good. Their offense is going to work well with Tarad Taylor there. Mike Williams also maybe out, you know for this game. He's questionable coming in. But it's really tough to see a rookie quarterback without any preseason games. You've got Aj Green who maybe limited a little bit in necessarily. I don't know. I don't know.
I sometimes I take flyer plays. I mean sometimes for me, I just don't I don't question the books, and I just say there's a reason why the Bengals are plus three, and just bet the Bengals, Okay, just just say there is something that I don't know that I'm not smart enough to know about. And they're expecting the public to come in and hammer Chargers and then it turns out, because it's the NFL, these are the sharpest lines that there are and they see something here.
I know. It makes me a little nervous too, you know. I love to do the game of trying to predict the lines. I wouldn't have been at three or three and a half six, right, especially right they had They are having fans, I think, but a very limited number in Cincinnati. I believe that's where they came out of there. So it's not even really like a home field advantage.
And again, rookie quarterback, you know, starting, I mean, maybe that benefits them, maybe because like it's like, well, it's gonna be like a scrimmage for him, so it won't be the same thing. But again, continuity, this is this is where you want to go. And again the Chargers have new quarterbacks, so I'm not you know, but it's still gonna kind of I don't know, man, I certainly I'm okay. Now again it DraftKings, it's three and a half. And for the circus three and a half, right, you.
Said it's three a't circa it's three.
At circa Okay, see it's it's three and a half. I don't know.
If that it does matter to me. I mean, I mean three and a half. That hook is big, but again it is I still would take three. I mean I just again, there's something that I feel like the bookmakers see that I don't. And I often say that they build casinos for a reason, so I sometimes we'll side with them on these types of situations just because I hate, and I mean capitol h hate Zach Taylor. I do not like their head coach at all. Again,
I've told I covered him in college. I don't think this dude's ready to be a head coach in the NFL. And then he's got a rookie quarterback on top of that, so it's like loss loss, So why isn't this I mean, Anthony Lynn. Most people I've seen, like four people take Anthony Lynn as coach of the year coming up because of all the injuries and they expect a big year of the Chargers. Okay, if that's the case, they better pound this team. It's the Bengals, you know.
Do you know what I remember by the way back? Because it's funny because when you said, there's like you look at a line and you're like, why is this line this way? That this can't be correct. There's always a reason. And I was trying to remember what game it was. It was involving the Chargers. I don't remember the line, but it was the Packers going to the Chargers and playing them, and the line was.
Oh yeahiculous last year, yep, last.
Right, and you were everybody was like, what what is this? What the Packers are going to destroy the Chargers And it was some really really small line and I remember thinking, right was Righters on the road minus three, right, and the Chargers won twenty six to eleven. Like it was just one of these things where it was like, what is happening at this point when lines like I will
admit I guess that you're right. That was one of the lines that stuck out to me to say, I would make this much closer to five five and a half maybe six. Why is it so low? I don't know, but you know who, I don't know. This year is a little crazy. Let me throw one out there that I like a little bit.
Okay, So just so, just so we're we're on the same side of the Saints, right, yes, so we're taking the Saints minus three, right or two and a half and a half. We're taking the Titans minus two and a half, right, correct?
Okay, those are the ones will will lock in.
We need three more plays here, correct.
Now, I'd be willing to go Bill's six and a half. We can talk about that a little more. But let's put that one in in pencil again, and maybe the Cardinals at getting six and a half. That one, that one's on the table, that's on off the table. How do you feel about the Steelers on the road on Monday Night football laying five and a half against the Giants? Now, I think I have this at three or something because that's what like the line originally opened up, probably before
they realized there'd be no fans. I don't know. I mean I realized five and a half. It's not a small number, but it strikes me as the Steelers are gonna come out in this game, and just I know Tomlin's not great in the beginning of the season, but I think they're just gonna go out and exert their will on the Giants in this game.
What do you think about it? There's a couple of paralt isms that you're gonna learn about Dan as we go through. Boy, I do not play five and a half.
Ever, that's a number that you just don't play.
Don't play it's a dead number. It means the books don't know. Anytime you see a book put up a five and a half, they don't know that number. That number is six is a key number, seven is a key number. Three is a key number. Four to key number. Five is a dead number. Yeah, five and a half they don't know. And when they don't know and they
just put that up, that's literally them. I think, in my opinion, they're raising the white flag and just say we're gonna put a number up that the professionals won't bet. So I see five and a half. Look, it doesn't mean the Giants can't win and cover. It just means that those that's a trap game and you can get beat by the hook so easily with that last second field goal. I've seen it too much in these contests when it comes to five and a half, that is
a really dangerous number. And there's two of them. There's the Eagles and at five and a half and the Giants at five and a half, which both games I'm a no play on.
So those games are just off. Okay, that's fine. How do you feel about the Bears getting two and a half against the Lions.
See here, the Lions are the professional team again, every pro I know. Yeah, they love the Lions. They have bet the Lions over, they've hammered. But Golladay's out, okay, And so Golladay's not playing, and they're gonna get swift backs. But he's a rookie running back. So I mean we saw clyde Us Hilaire have a big knight. But I don't know.
I think VI ties out as well. I mean they they I don't know, man.
This, but I hate Tribitsky with a flaming as much as I hate Zach Taylor. I hate Tribitsky. So you want to go on the road and late and you want to take okay, I mean it's on the road.
It's on the road in name only, right, I mean.
Still on the road. It's still indoors.
Still don't it's still indoors. That is fine. I don't like Marky, but I mean he was as bad as a quarterback could be last year and they went eight to eight, right, And I think you know, if they defensively is really what they're going to be able to do without Galladay, you know, and I do. I think Robert Quinn is doubtful, so I think that is a problem. But Khalil Knack's going to be there. Their offensive line isn't that good. So for me, I would take the
Bears and pick them. I think they're going to win this game. But okay, that's fine. Let's think about it now. You don't like the Rams getting two and a half from the Cowboys, right, you like them only I.
Would rather like I would rather have the three, the security of the three.
Of course.
I just I think the Cowboys. This is one of these like really public years for the Cowboys. Yeah, and everyone's like the Cowboys are gonna be outstanding, and I just don't. I don't know. I mean, I just I could be wrong about him. But I don't see a ten win team out of the NFC East, any of them. Okay, I don't think there's a ten win team in that division. I think that the Cowboys go nine and seven. This is a game that they clearly need, but it's on
the road. And here's my thing with Jared Goff. If you look at his home splits, the dude is so much better at home. Why he can hear his head coach. His head coach can tell him what to do. No silent counts. He's more comfortable this is a home game in week number one, without any concern of not being able to be told what to do. I don't know. I think McVeigh I know a whole hard knocks curse,
but it's a different type of year for hard knocks. Yeah, I do like I like the Rents plus three, though the two and a half does scare me.
Yeah, it scares me. I would be willing to do it because I do think that there's a chance that the Rams are going to be able to win this game out right. But that let's put that aside. How do you feel about the Ravens links having a half to the Browns?
See, this is where I like this because it's eight in the circa, so I prefer this. So this is a play I like a lot raven I.
Will do this one, by the way, if you were this is one where I've been waiting. I have a couple of games where I'm like, if Matt gives me the go ahead on this, I'm just firing it. I'm not putting it in earnything, but I'll fire it up. If you're good with the Ravens laying seven and a half against the Browns, I will take that. I think, by the way, they're gonna be I think they're gonna be mad. I think they're gonna be really mad at
how things ended last year. I think they're gonna come out and make a statement, and they've got all the continuity in the world what we love early on. I think this is gonna be a big one for them.
Yeah, I think Dobbins is gonna have a monster year, much like Clyde des Hilaire for the for the Chiefs. I think Dobbins out of Ohio State running behind Lamar Jackson that offensive line. I think the two guys together, their stable of running backs are really deep. And one thing I like about the fact that they're a run
first team. If they get up early, if they get up big here, which I think they could on the Browns, they're gonna run the clock out where the Chiefs on Thursday night, they just were kind of going through the motions and giving the ball back to the and I kept on sweating it, going, oh my gosh, this minus ten is not going to hit because they keep on giving this, and then O'Brien did me some favors, missing in two point conversion and then kicking an extra point, and I was.
Like, hell, hell, thank.
You, Bill O'Brien, appreciate that you help out, and then we didn't ultimately didn't need it because of the role that got kicked Andy Reid with a bleep you field goal at the end of the game. But I think they'll run the clock out, so there's not that back door fear here with the Browns as much as there was with the Texans. So even though you have the hook there, seven would be better. But I'm comfortable at seven and a half.
And I forgot who it was, maybe David Cocher or if that's how you pronounce his name, who was on last year, who just was like, man, I you know, I don't mind hammering Harbor because Harbaugh doesn't just want to win bat that he wants to take your heart.
Out, especially week one, right because like everyone's going to compare them to the Chiefs and what the Chiefs did, and like all of a sudden, the Chiefs are running the football, so you know the harball is gonna be like, okay, fine, you want to run the football. Watch this and we're gonna run the football real And look, I I just new coach. I know the offense is a work in progress. I do think OBJ has a beast as a bounce back year for this team, But I'm just not that
sold on Baker Mayfield. And I'm just I don't like the fact that rookie coaches coming in taking over during COVID nineteen pandemic time. Is is smart week one?
Okay, Okay, that's fine, Okay. I think we're probably on different sides of this one. So that's why I'm kind of saving it here to the end. How do you feel about the Raiders laying three and a half to the Panthers, which is what it is in DCA. I don't know what it is in the circa.
It's three in the circa. I don't like it at three and a half at all.
But you you don't like it from the Raiders point of view?
Right? From a Raiders point of view, yeah, right.
See, I kind of like the Panthers wide.
If you like the Panthers getting the hook, there's significant. Three and a half is significant and if I wouldn't play it any other way. But the Panthers at plus three and a half. And look, if you like Joe Brady and you think he's going to be able to transform Bridgewater into you know, you know, a stellar quarterback Christian McCaffrey come in. I mean, can he single handedly beat the Raiders potentially? Yeah, Raiders defense gets some big questions.
My question is on the other side where you're losing a ton of talent for that pack, that the that Panthers defense, and a ton of leadership off that Panthers defense from last year, and you've got weapons everywhere for this for this team, for the Raiders. So I think it's going to be a shootout. Yeah.
By the way, that's what I like.
I like the over in the game. But we're not playing with sides only here. So if I was gonna bet it, if I had to, I would take the three and a half. But I mean three with the Raiders. I do think there's a decent shot that it comes down to a last second field goal and the Raiders win.
Yeah, I think it's fair. I think if I were to, you know, go one way, it would be the Panthers getting the hook. And if you were like, yeah, Dan, I really like that I'd be willing to make that a pick. I think we touched on every game, and then we'll we'll decide.
Well, we haven't talked about there's a couple there on my team.
Where's my That's the only game I think we haven't talked about. That's what I'm getting to. Okay, the team, I would like to know how you feel about this. The Patriots laying six and a half to the Dolls. I think we have at least touched on every other game. That's the one. Patriots laying six and a half to the Dolphins.
Yeah, I teased it, so a daily Juice play was Patriots teased down to minus five, minus half a point two point five and then taking the Cardinals from seven and teasing it up to thirteen. Okay, so that's a daily juice play that I gave out, and I think the Patriots win, But if I had to bet it, I probably would take the Dolphins. Six and a half is a little The Patriots are gonna play a bunch
of games by three points. They're gonna win seventeen fourteen a lot, so six and a half feels DeVante Parker. The reason why I probably wouldn't play it is because I don't know about DeVante Parker yet.
If he's playing, it sounds like he's gonna play. I mean, whether or not he'll be limited at all, but it does sound like he is good to go.
Yeah, if he's playing, I'm comfortable laying the six and a half. I mean started taking sorry, sorry, started taking the six and a half with the Dolphins. I mean I actually I would much rather at seven, but I've been So I'll pose this to you. So do you think what is the win total for the Patriots? What do you think? What do you think they'll be?
I think they'll probably wind up going nine and seven.
Okay, so you're you're very okay. So on my radio show, and I was literally throwing this out there, I said, anyone who wants to take this because everyone was saying six and ten. I've heard six and ten from like a mix and ten. Yep, I've heard it from a million people, six and ten six. And I said, fine, I said, I will lay one hundred dollars on anybody who wants to take this. I'll take the action on anybody one hundred dollars. Patriots to win more than six games,
and no one wants it. It's not even the people who say six and ten. Even the people who are saying six and ten in the media. Lum Marloney from WI in Boston. I was going back and forth on Twitter with Lou and he's saying six and ten. I said, fine, Lou, let's do it. He goes, well, Vegas is eight and a half at Vegas. I'll take that. I said, no, that's not what you said. I said six and ten. And so I think the Patriots, I think you're right.
I think they're eight and eight, nine and seven. Yeah, And I think it has a lot to do with the division because they have four wins. They have four wins in the division sitting there. They need three more wins to get to seven. Okay, they're not going to be a six and ten football team. I don't. They may not make the playoffs. But I think the games like this, these are the games that the Patriots win
on a last second field goal. You know that they pull something out defensive, makes a play or something around the.
Wad, especially early in the year, right, because you always look at the Patriots in the beginning of the year and you're like, oh man, for like ten years who are like, I don't know, they don't look that good. You know, maybe they're two and two to start, and then they just wrap off twelve wins in a row like in the beginning of the year. I feel like Belichick is like, let me try this, let me try this, let me see what works here, let me do this. And so they win these close games early on in
the year. And that's why I look, you know, if you're if you're good with it, I will roll with Miami getting six and a half.
Yeah, in Week one, given how heavy that six and a half point feel is, I think it could be a pretty popular play. But you're in New Hampshire and with the DraftKings contest, I feel like we're going against everyone, so we have a chance to get some noise like that.
That's right, that's a good call. Ye, it's a good call.
You you're going against whatever one's gonna go ahead and play. And look, we're trying to obviously can this is a contest here, so write some game theory when it goes into it. We're not petting any money on this, so I'm I'm I'm comfortable at six and a half to take.
It, Okay, So for our contest. Do you correct me if I'm wrong? It looks like we've locked in four Ravens laying seven and a half to the Browns. Correct, Saints laying three and a half to the Bucks. Yep, Titans laying two and a half to the Broncos.
Yep.
Dolphin's getting six and a half from the Patriots.
So it comes down to the Bills and the Cardinals.
Bills and the Cardinals unless you like the Chargers or are you off it because it's three and.
A half, And yeah, I'm off at three and a half. It's yeah, right, I mean I would take the Bengals personally, if I was gonna go on that.
Side, Okay, I would take all right, Yeah, so let's stick. Yeah, So you I know you really like the Cards, Hans, this is your pick. That's the one that you feel strongly about.
Hi, I like the Cardinals a lot. I mean, I mean, look, the only problem with six and a half lay it. It's the same reason why you know we just got into it with the Patriots and the Dolphins. It's it's a big number. This is a divisional game. The Bills have a divisional game as well, right, But I'm just Josh Allen. I mean, my gosh, like you hate the Bills so much and I hate Josh Allen so much.
Are aware though, of like what the Jets look like at this point, right like once Jamal Adams was traded, right like, like you know how bad this defense is going to be, right like their cornerbacks are not going to be able to stop Stefan Diggs and John Brown. He just has to get it somewhere in the same vicinity, you know what I mean, You don't got to worry about being like, man, let me get these sixty yard passes, right, just get it anywhere there's gonna be nowhere near either
one of these guys. They can still stop the run, even without CJ. Moseley, they can still stop the run. And so maybe that you know that they're not going to be able to run quite as well. But again, even you know the Jets offense, who are we throwing the ball into?
Like, but that's the one thing about this pick. You're a Jets fan, correct, So you could handicap your team as well as anybody because you watch these guys. You suffer through these games. So if you tell me that you feel much more confident on Buffalo blowing out the Jets that you do the Cardinals keeping the game close. I'm willing to go with you. Man.
All Right, this is tough. This is really tough. I don't know how I feel about this because I'm trying to be objective and you know, the Jets. I don't want to add, you know, to to basically be like, all right, I'm the tiebreaker, let's see where we go. And I wind up rooting against the Jets, going to really make me upset, you know, to do it. And you know, the more I've I've kind of dug into
the Cardinals game because you sent it. And that was the one where I was like, Okay, let me think about this, because at first I was like, I don't know. I really like the forty nine ers, let me see, and they have so much continuity, but again, they have a ton of injury to their receiving depth. I mean that is part of what it is. And yeah, I mean you do have you know, you have the same system. Obviously, Murray, I think is going to be much better in year two.
Really the only big change is the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, and that doesn't really matter that much right, all right, Maddie, here's what we're gonna go. We're gonna go with the Cardinals, all right. I like it because it was the first one you came up with. We're gonna go with the Cardinals. I'm gonna spare myself the horror of having to root against the Jets and then watching them.
Just for the record, the Bills and the Cardinals both will be in my circle place, so okay, they're both these picks. I'm comfortable.
So you get to root against the Jets, that's fine. Yeah, I'm gonna spare myself a little bit. I'm gonna spare myself from the Jets last second meaningless touchdown to lose, right that bit? All right, guys. So those are our
official draft kings. Pick them championship plays. It's gonna be the Ravens lank seven and a half to the Browns, Saints lank three and a half to the Bucks, the Titans lank two and a half to the Broncos, the Dolphins getting six and a half from the Patriots, and the Cardinals getting six and a half from the four nine ers. I like it, Matt. It's a good mix of favorites and underdogs. I feel good about this. Are you ready to begin our quest?
Now? I'm so ready, and I'm so interested to see how many entries wind up actually in this thing for the draft Kings Pro Football pick them. But it's remarkable on the East coast see here in Vegas. This is part of our culture. It is a new thing in New Hampshire, New Jersey and West Virginia for the most part. So I'm very curious to see how we do. I mean that there's gonna be a lot of newbies here in this tournament.
And again again, three hundred and seventy six entries. That's it right now.
I mean, but Johnny Vella told me today that they expect a rush, so as you guys know, in the fantasy side of things, to offer free rolls kind of the way that they go. And I mean they they lost ten million dollars on that game on Thursday. Okay, I gave away ten million dollars a free roll of free money to the people who bet the Chiefs plus one hundred and one. So losing a million might not that be that big of a deal to them, or two million? They may not care?
All right, Well, look follow us both on Twitter at sports Talk Matt, I'm at Dan Harris Ades. Follow us as we sweat this long. Hopefully we get off to a big start. Last year, I believe I went one in four in the opening week and then rattled off like good, a five and oh, a five in and like a.
Four and one or something like that.
So follow us, all right, Matt, You've got to move, my friends, So go get go, get your stuff done again. Thanks everybody for stopping by. We'll be back every week, a little earlier. Next week, as you know, we get rid of the conflicts, and we'll be giving you we'll be breaking down what happened this week, and we'll be giving you our five picks coming into next week. Until then, have a great week, Enjoy your Sunday, NFL Football,