Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place your bets. It is meet Joey p Joe Piez a PA and this is VP NFL with me as ol. Ways to talk props for Week sixteen in the NFL, My Boys, the Undertaker, Andrew Rickson and the Welsh. Where I could take a look at some of the Week sixteen games that are looming, lots of playoff implications, some standalone Saturday games. It's a good time right now. Make sure you're subscribing to the Vetting Pros YouTube channel as well.
Make sure you're ring developed notifications because we've got all the college football bracket stuff going on here, we got NBA stuff going on here. We've got a lot going on. And it was a lot going on last night, including a free kick, something that hasn't happened in my lifetime, your lifetime, maybe most of the people's lifetimes watching this show. And it was cool. I liked it. It was fun.
I don't think anybody here was possibly happier than Jim Harbaugh, who seemed to be waiting for this his entire coaching career. In the press conference, which is pretty hilarious. So ericson what did you think of the free kick last night in the Chargers rebound against the Denver Broncos.
I absolutely loved it. I loved how the broadcasters talked about did teams even practice? And the first thing Sean Payton says after the free kicks, like, yeah, we prepared for this every single week, we get ready for the free kick. That hasn't love it connected in fifty years, because of course they practiced for it. So I thought it was fun. Anything that's think different.
I know.
I explained it to my wife and she pretended to care, and then I knew that she was the one for me because she's like, oh, like free kick, that sounds kind of cool. I knew she was lying, but it made me feel good because this hasn't happened in fifty years, Like this is cool. And he made it too, like if he hadn't missed it, Oh, well, that was what.
I was gonna say. Well, could you imagine that there's like here you go, nobody's you know, rushing the kicker. It is literally a free kick, and yet in the back of your mind you're going, what if he misses this? What a horrendous situation? This would be, so I mean, let's talk about that for a second, because the incredible high of getting that moment only to kind of have it go by the wayside, perhaps with the way kicking has been so terrible in twenty twenty four and I
loved the last couple of years, probably two. But he did make it, so everything was pretty on board there. But again, something that a lot of us didn't even know existed and have never seen actually execute it in our lifetimes. In nineteen seventy six, I think they said, right.
He was gonna make that. From seventy yeah, But that's that's my only issue with this whole thing, though, is they're talking about it. They weren't explaining it like I get conceptually, like it's a free kick. They're like, oh man, guys, could this be a free kick? We haven't seen this in fifty years. Then explain it, say that all the guys have to line up like it's an ech, like it's a kickoff. They didn't explain any that it's going to be put on a tea. There was literally no breakdown.
They just kept saying free kick. If there was a drinking game, everyone is passed out and still struggling today because they're like, oh, free kick, free kick, because you could believe it'd be a free kick, Like what what are we doing? What is different about the free kick? Why is it free? Why doesn't it cost? I don't know. I thought it was just like so overblown. And then yes, he made it, and like I said, we'd have made it from like seventy or seventy five. It's great.
You know there's a better that's been betting on will there be a free kick? And every single game for the every NFL slate finally, finally, Victoria.
I don't know if I don't know if if that even.
Broke somebody out there.
I mean, I don't think that's available. I don't I can't remember fifty years. I don't even think the sites would know what that is because they didn't explain it.
You could be damn sure it's gonna be on there this week. Oh yeah, right, copycat league? All right, Before we move on to Week sixteen, any final thoughts from last week? Eric said, I know you were painfully close to something. It fell just a little short, little Bryce Young action that kind of bitch. You're in the rear end.
Yep so three and two overall, so winning week still positive. Jalen hurts let me down. He did not throw interception and Bryceywng came up half a yard short of the Russian props. So that was very disappointing. And I know that Welsh also has feelings about the Carolina Panthers that basically were underwhelming. They were on the money line, they were supposed to win, they lost, And I know that Welsh also lost out on a bed because of the Carolina Panthers.
Yeah, three and two also would have been four and one half of a yard. Adam Thielen was fifty one point five and he finished fifty one, so did the end of the week three and two. It's been very profitable over the last month or whatever. But like that one hurt, Like the TUA process was bad. He's stuck. He looked awful. Some of those I'm kicking myself for not laddering CDE Lamb CD LAMB. Cook rushed as did Russ Wilson. He hit that one great feeling. One hurts
just a tiny bit. That's the one where you're like, you don't even focus on you having a positive winning weekend when you lose by a half a yard by a guy, but both of us three and two ericson.
We'll take that, all right, just like Boe Belichick. We're on to Cincinnati. We're on the week sixteen, and of course we're gonna be using the prop bet cheat sheet. If you haven't played around with it, make sure you do. It's the best place to get all of your props. You could take the matchups, the odds, you could sort everything, positions, whatever you're looking for. It's so easy to find, and you're gonna find the projections with the best line where
to bet it. It makes life so much easier. So use the propet chia chee. Go to betting pros dot com slash props or if you already have the app, which you should. You should have downloaded the app anyway, and use the free tools there for the premium side for a couple of days. Then I mentioned it's for and you also get the opportunity to use the prop betchi ici there. It is an invaluable asset and something you should be using for the rest of the NFL
season into the playoffs. All right, let's start here, Welsh. I can't believe you're kicking things off here with the forty nine ers, like you just just just hate yourself that much? Is that where we're at right now? Is that just like continuing to just beat yourself up. I mean, just let it go. I thought you let the season go.
Last week it felt like I'm not betting that they're gonna win, and I'm not betting Deebo Samuel, So I don't hate myself that much. Like if I want to hate myself, if you you want to hate yourself, bet Deebo Samuel receiving yards or anytime I bet he.
Has one hundred down this week, I'm gonna it's just so clear the over corrections touchdown, it's amazing.
So no, but what I am gonna and maybe it is a little self hatred to it, but there's there's actually just a lot of like situational stuff. Why I like this one brock Purty over passing touchdowns one and a half this week and it's plus money and that's what really like I like about it. Not to mention, we've had a lot of bad weather stuff that's been going on recently. There's some bad weather games that are going on this weekend. It ain't in the Dolphins in
the forty nine Ers game. It should be nice and clear. Dolphins have given up two passing touchdowns in two of their last three games. Rock Purty really hasn't, and that's obviously why this is plus money. At this point, you're throw in like the you know, bad weather game and just the overall poor performance in general. But they're going into a spot where Juwan Jennings thirteenth best cornerback to wide receiver matchup this week and George Kittle graded out.
That's on PFF. By the way, George Kittle graded out on PFF as the number one tight end from advantage standpoint. They graded him a sixty eight percent matchup advantage per perspective. That is twenty percent higher than the next tight end. That's how far we are going on this one. And then when I'm talking about, like, you know, the situational thing, I just like that they don't have a running back. They're down four of them. ISAA Grendo is not going
to play. You're gonna go to Patrick Taylor, maybe Abana Kanda, maybe a little bit of Deebo Samuel. I think what that is going to end up establishing is not an established running game they're gone have to throw the ball, and there's an advantage with Juwan Jennings, with George Kittle. I like this. Dolphins are giving it up. I think they're gonna slang it. There's also you know, Mike McDaniel,
Kyle Shanahan kind of back and forth. I actually do think there's gonna be some points scored in this game. But obviously I have weird blind spots sometimes with the Niners. But plus money Brock Party on two touchdowns against the Dolphins, Yep, that's gonna be my number one.
Yeah, and Purty for the year has been a bit of a road warrior. Actually, he's been much better on the road in terms of QBR and all the staffs. So that being said, Andrew Erickson looks like you are piggybacking on the Brock Party front as well. For Week sixteen.
Yeah, I like the over on Brock Parties passing yards two hundred and forty two and a half passing yards. I think that the numbers kind of suppressed just because of the last couple of weeks where they've been bad. He's been he had an injury he was dealing with, He's played in a bad couple bad weather games. They're playing in Miami, nice and sunny. It's gonna be great. The Web's gonna be fine. There're two teams that have been unerwhelming, but I think that they're gonna take their
frustrations out on the opposing defenses. I really think that's gonna be the case here in the matchup. And I think the thing to point out with Brock Purty is so he's gone over this number in six of nine games with George Kittle, with Debo and John Jennings like all in the lineup. So when he has all of his guys, even Debo to an extent like, he usually
goes over this number. And I think that you're just getting a good value on it because of in recent weeks where he's been under in three of four, because of the things I pointed out injuries and weather, which I don't think are going to be factors in this particular matchup. And I think from a next gen stats point of view, this is someone I was looking at.
So the Dolphins have played cover two at the fifth highest rate in the NFL this season, and if you look at what Party has done against that type of coverage, nine point two yards per attempt against cover two, third most in the NFL. So I think they're just gonna let it rip their down to their fourth string running back. Is this going to be Patrick Taylor? Twenty carries? Now? This is hey. Let's rip it with Brock Purdy. Let's beat up on this Dolphin. I mean Aaron Rodgers three
for three dy yards against the Dolphins. Steve Is the guy hasn't done it since the Ronald Reagan administration. Come on, So I like Purdy, so handholding with Welsh here. Perty's gonna have himself a day, all right?
So Brock Purty looking pretty good for week sixteen. Let's talk about an investment in the New York Giants. Yes, that's correct, the New York Giants. So again you got to convince me here on this. Drew Lock's playing quarterback. I mean, if you can't invest in Drew Lock and the Giants at this point, what can you invest in? Let's talk about Milik Neighbors. The number for name is sixty seven and a half. You think Drew Lock can get this to an over Let's talk about the why? Yeah?
Well, I mean why as we have gotten there? He has hit this in three straight games. You're talking about Milik Neighbors over receiving yard sixty seven and a half. He has hit this three straight games while receiving thirty seven targets over that time in a row. No but thirty seven targets. Falcons giving up the tenth most receiving yards to wide receivers so far this year. Falcons have also given up, if you care about this, the top five most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last month.
And this is a big volume play, So you know, I'm tempted always with the receptions, way more than you guys on some of these things, and I have some fun reception stuff coming up here. But with this one, that pure set of volume against a Falcons defense. Like I said, tenth most receiving yards given up overall. We know he's getting targets. He's had double digit targets in three straight games. He is hitting these numbers. Don't think this is a great team, but also think they're gonna
be playing from behind. Even though you do have a rookie quarterback in there and Michael Pennock's starting, I think he's going to be efficient and that just leads to them doing more throwing, so always going to Malik Neighbors. This is a relatively low number. Anything under seventy I think is playable. As each yard went down, I felt more comfortable. Sixty seven was a fantastic marker. So sixty seven and a half over for Elik Neighbors. That's number two. But I get the hesitation.
Last week Darnold Mooney was disappointing this week he has for quarterbacks, So perhaps Michael Pennix, who did have a pensant in Washington for making a big plays. You know, whenever there's like a big throw to you made in a big moment, he is never afraid of it, which
is something I love about Michael Penicks. And I was kind of a defender of Michael Pennix a lot last year in a lot of shows, and I enjoy watching play quarterback, and I think this is a unique opportunity against the bad team for him to play through the nerves a little bit in the first half and then maybe settled in. But there's definitely some big play potential
in there. And I know Andrew you and I have mentioned before maybe looking for the over on the biggest pass yardage in a single play for Michael Pennock's being an interesting one because he does have that big playability looking for the over on his yards. But there's also a receiver that you feel has a good prop this week is Darnal Mooney. Let's talk about him.
Yeah, Donald Mooney's gonna go over fifty two and a half receiving arts because they're just They're gonna let it rip with Michael Pennix too. They're gonna show everybody why they took this guy where they did, because this matchup
is chef's kiss for deep ball receivers. Giants defense ranks dead lass and EPA per target on passes of twenty plus air yards and something that I want to point out about last week's matchup, the Raiders have been good defending the deep ball, so that kind of played into why Donald Mooney was so disappointing. Also considering Kirk Cousins at his quarterback, and they decided to run the ball a million times and never throw. So that's the only way this beats me would be they just don't get
enough volume. But Mooney's not a volume based receiver. He is a big play special and no defense has been worse at guarding the deep ball than the New York Giants, So honestly, it would not surprise me. All they go hard, play action the first play of the game and they just rocket it down the field to Darnell Mooney get the crowd fired up in Atlanta for their new rookie quarterback.
I think that the main takeaways from this game is going to be, well, they should have started Michael Penix months ago.
Well, but that's the problem is like that could be the takeaway against the New York Football Giant. Yeah.
Ye, clearly wa wave blown out of proportion and we're gonna be fading the Falcons the week after, trying.
To think who they play next week? Ericson, do you know if the okay? So it's really it's not gonna make a difference. We're all gonna get excited about Michael Pennis. Maybe too much money.
Can I ask, is there any temptation I was looking as you were starting this to play the longest reception for Darnell Mooney just because you know you did have that donut. Fifty two yards is a pretty aggressive marker off of that. Twenty two and a half is the longest reception for Darnell Mooney. Boy, that feels kind of good. Ericson, would that be something that you would suggest I would do if someone is scared to be off of the donut for mooney.
I think both make a lot of sense.
If you like the biggest total, then you might as well continue with the overrun receiving two. That's just good logic.
I feel like, I mean, I haven't particularly dove into the longest receptions prop market this year, but I think that your point is very spot on.
I think I've only done one on this show and hit it Withdvante. It was under twenty.
He does a lot of those on the Thursday nights, of course, he loves. Last night was the first time in like five years that Gus Edwards had a run for more than ten yards, and of course that was one of our prop bets yesterday and then he had that big run and it was just we were just laughing about it last week.
I got hurting that game too. We're like, oh, we're good, We're good to go, and he comes in.
He text me He's like, I had Gus Edwards Underyard's longest rush of five.
And still nothing on Michael Pennock's rushing yards as of right now on Friday recording is like keep looking for rushing yards for Pennix. I don't know what they're going to say it at. It could be a wide range. I think the number is going to be a little lower than it should be in that first shot out of the gate. I would take the over on that too. I think he's gonna get out in space a little bit.
At one point, something's gonna break down. He's gonna have a run for at least ten yards, and if he has one more over there, I think you're looking at somewhere around twenty yards. I think rushing for him potentially in this game against the Giants. All right, let's move on to the next pick, and just a quick reminder too, you can always follow all of our picks too on betting Pros. Just put our name in the search tab and you can follow Welsh ericson myself and look at
all the things that we're in on this week. For better or worse, we're having fun here. This is what we do. Let's talk about a Saturday game here. I'll talk about the Baltimore Ravens year. And you've got a prop in a running back, but it ain't Dereck Henry. It's just as Hill Welsh for receiving yards eighteen and a half. So let's chat about this one.
Yeah, I love this one. Eighteen and a half receiving yards on Justice Hill caught four passes or more in three of his last four games. He has hit this number in two of his last four. Has beat this number seven times this year, and by the way, he beat this number against the Steelers earlier this year. Steelers are giving up or have given up this number to four of the last five running backs that they've played. And this is the formula, especially with any of these
running backs that are not Derek Henry. Love to throw the ball to Justice Hill. I'm taking yards over receptions in this point, and I believe it's at two and a half on the receptions that it might push to three and a half because they do throw on the ball. Also, if you are a believer in the Lamar Jackson struggles kryptonite of the Pittsburgh Steelers, even better because then he's going to be less efficient, They're not going to be moving the ball. You're gonna have a closer game, and
you're gonna have more dump offs to Justice Hill. Plus you know, like Deck Henry is a monster, but the Pittsburgh Steelers are a pretty tough run defense. Don't be shocked when you see a little bit more Justice Hill and they start moving to a passing game. God forbid, the Steelers were to get up in this game. But again, he hit this against the Steelers before. This is his primary role in the Baltimore Ravens offense. I love this one under twenty eighteen and a half is the over.
Maybe you see it move a tiny bit more. One of my favorites.
All Right, the New York Jets and Rams are gonna face off this weekend, and last time we saw Matthew Stafford, things didn't look all that good. However, despite the fact he's coming off his second worst passing total of the season last week, just one hundred and sixty yards. The only week that was lower than that was Week seven against Las Vegas, where he's at one fifty four. You're confident,
Matthew Stafford. Now, the Jets have been a top eight or so defense in terms of receiving yards given up. So why are you looking for that bounce back this week? Is it's just the motivation here of Stafford and the Rams to make that final playoff push.
Well, lately, the Jets haven't been that great against quarterbacks. For the last five quarterbacks the Jets have faced have given up two hundred and sixty five passing yards at least hit that number. And we look at Stafford and what he's done when he's had his guys this year, between Pupkin, Deakua and Cooper Cup, gone over this number and seven of his last nine starts. Now, obviously last week didn't work out. All of my prize picks pick'ems all burned to flames because I was paying rock perty
with Matthew Stafford. Oh this is a lock, baby. They got all their guys and then the weather had different ideas. But I'm going right back to it because I don't think that the process was terrible. When they've had their healthy guys receivers this year, they've been going over this passing yards not afraid of the Jets six most deep
passes face this season. And I think an interesting way to play this actually is with the over on Cooper Cup and his receiving yards, because every time Stafford has gone over this number, he's brought Cooper Cup along for the ride. And you look at the Jets worst defense against slot receivers this season. So if you want a little bit of a bigger payout, pair Matthew Stafford with Cooper Cup and a little bit of correlated parlay action.
All right, let's get to the fourth pick for everybody here and well, for this next one, you've got a little duo action. Let's talk about this. You seem very excited about this one, so I want to hear it.
Yeah, yeah, the next two I'm going to be throwing at you. I'm switching stuff up for some fun here. But I'm gonna drop I don't know if I've done this this year because I used to do this last year. I'm dropping a reception parlay. Nothing crazy. Two players who've got some juice numbers, and the reason they're juiced is
because everybody likes them. We are pairing Cuba Hubbard receptions with Jalen Warren receptions, and we are getting over two and a half each plus one essentially one fifty fifty six. I had it. The number is going to vary when you guys lock it in if you do. Cardinals are giving up the tenth most receptions to running backs on the year and the fifth most over the last month,
So this is a Chuba thing. Cuba has caught four two straight games and three of his last five bank Now we move to Jalen who has hit this in three of his last five games, including four against Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore has given up the eighth most receptions to running backs on the year, and the Jalen Warren one is probably my most confident play if someone wanted to mess around with it, just simply because I don't think the Steelers are going to be able to really successfully run
against this team. Jalen Warren is the better running back they're gonna throw to him. He caught four against Baltimore. It's at two and a half with Big Juice. Don't love to play like minus one sixty five's individually, but I do love pairing these two guys together. Tuba seems a tiny bit more risky, but you know, hitting those in the last two since Brooks has been out, he
is the top dog. Even when he struggles and dis points me in fantasy and betting last week, He's going to get back to it laying out why you can do that against the Cardinals. So two and a half receptions on both Jalen and Cuba get plus money, little reception parlay.
All right, let's go to New England. Here the Patriots going to get their ass kicked by the Buffalo Bills. But the one to think about the Bills the defense continues to give up just points after points after points. So how do we translate that into a wager that makes sense with the Patriots side of things?
Andrew, I'm chasing the trend because we've been betting on this all year long. Bet on running back receiving props against the Buffalo Bills. I brought to the table last week Dave Montgomery, and he hit it and he got injured in that game, but it didn't even matter because he still went over his receiving yards and it actually moved up to before closer to kickoffs. So for me, Romandre Stevenson looking at his receiving yards, he's gone over twelve and a half receiving yards in five of his
last seven games. And like I said, Bill's defense top three most yards, catches and targets to running backs this season allowed. In the passing game, we know the Patriots are going to be throwing a negative game script, and I think that reminder. I mean on the first drive, so over twelve and a half receiving yards for me against the Buffalo Bills for Remandre.
Okay, so Remandre is on the ticket as well. Let's do one more and then we'll get to the touchdown calls. Let's talk about those Eagles. Jalen Hurts obviously continue to push this team forward right now. The Eagles I think are in the driver's seat, to tell you the truth, for this conference. I think they went at the line on both sides of the football. They can run the football. You play defense, run the football. That's usually a good formula.
So what do we want to do this week when it comes to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles?
Welsh So we're going to do the thing that feels scariest with Jalen Hurts, and we're going to go with passing touchdowns. This is my I don't think I've ever done something like this. This is a variant of a passing touchdown ladder that we're going to play. So the main play here, and I'll tell you why I got so excited, but the main play here is over one point five passing touchdowns because it was plus and is plus one seventy five, so almost two to one for
that to hit. Jalen Hurts has hit this in two two straight games. Aj Brown is currently being given the seventh best wide receiver quarnerback matchup where we're looking at him in general and that offense being able to pass. The Commanders have given up six touchdowns receiving over the last month. Commanders also have given up the second least fantasy points just running out fantasy points for a second to running backs over the last month, and the least
rushing yards. So if the running game is taken away a little bit, they're going to be passing more. Hurts. This is my other stat I'm going to throw out here for a second, so that ends that over two touchdowns. He's hitting it. By the way, if you remember, the Commanders were just like absolutely atrocious at the beginning of
the year. I love this spot now. I got all giddy when I was looking at his numbers because I've been peeking around at three touchdowns and his three touchdown number is plus seven fifty this week, plus seven to fifty. So take all of the two touchdowns stuff we talked about, it's great matchup Commanders. They had the five time touchdown giving up game earlier in the year. Pick all of that stuff in there. Just a fun little anecdotal thing
in here. This is a sprinkle bet. This isn't anything crazy. I bet you know my full unit size on Jalen Hurts. Do a little bit of sprinkle when it's plus seven to fifty. But just as an anecdotal thing. Hurts every year of his career has had at least one game of throwing three or more touchdowns every single year of his career except for this year. Things are starting to turn around. They're passing the ball better divisional game, by
the way. I think he's got for the last four years three career games against Washington where he's thrown three or more touchdowns in a game. This is a game where the passing side gets right. Two touchdowns is the play almost two to one. Little bit of a sprinkle on three touchdowns at seven and a half to one for Jalen Hurts against the Commanders.
I love it. Does the AJ Brown ankle give you any pause whatsoever on this?
If he's active? It doesn't.
Okay, there you go, Oh, I would say too. So it's actually interested actually looking at some of the receivers for the because I was thinking about, Okay, if he's throwing multiple touchdowns, who's it going to? And right now, I don't know if this is injury related. It must be because you're getting plus nine fifty on Davonta Smith two touchdowns versus A J. Brown at plus eleven hundred.
I also know that this time around, Latimore is gonna be active for the Commanders and they're probably gonna put him on AJ Brown. So I kind of like some of these.
Oh so you're turning this into a dvante.
I kind of like, where's the ball gonna go? I don't know. I mean AJB was last week right like that was his big So like I'm thinking Calcata, I'm thinking about that.
How about another obvious one. How about another obvious one that I didn't even talk about in here, Saquon Barkley Barkley if they're yeah, but if Saquon Barkley is also not able to completely do this through the ground, as Washington has locked it down over the last month, Saquon Barkley is also the option. So I know exactly what you're saying here, and again the three touchdowns is the risky thing. I don't think you should go anything nuts.
I didn't go nuts with it. I love the two touchdowns here, AJ Brown, maybe not AJ Brown love the two touchdowns. To me, it's a sprinkle on the three touchdowns because that is such a massively massively.
It is also a cookie season, so got to get those sprinkles.
Then there you go sprinkle.
I met someone that said they don't like sprinkle like. They were like, not like, just like I don't like sprinkles, but we're like sprinkles ruined cookies, And I was like, what they ruined?
Wrong with you? Get out of it, Get out of this country. What's wrong with you? You know, like sprinkles ruin.
I mean you cannot like them, but they don't ruin Erickson.
The last one you're going to talk about is one that I've already bet. I've got a parlay as well. It's one of my favorites of the week. It's the Jared Goff passing yardage total. You got a two fifty five and a half. You're going under. I'm going under. I'm with you. I think this game is going to get a little gross. Golf outside historically has not been good.
The the injuries to the defense. I just you know, I have my concerns here that this is going to be kind of just a weird, gross in division game, and I think it's unfortunate, and I think it might be a game that maybe you don't want to watch that much of. But in terms of investing, I think this is the way to do it. And you seem to agree.
Yeah, I mean, I mean, I'm fading Jared Goff, who oblivion this week in fantasy. I'm like ten spots below ECR on Jared Goff. I'm telling everybody to say, Jared Goff, Yeah, I get through five touchdowns last week? You know who through five touchdowns a week before they played the Bears, Sam Darnold. You know what he didn't do the next time he played the Bears, didn't throw over five touchdowns again.
So I'm not chasing last week's box or I'm looking at this matchup and traditionally Jared Goff when he goes outside in the cold, there's also about a little bit of precipitation now in the forecast in Chicago. I want no part of Jared Goff. And this number is just massive two hundred and fifty five and a half passing yards again on the road this season, so this includes just Dome road games as well. He's been fifty percent
at this number. He already faced the Bears this year, and he was under this number when the one time he played outside this year, he was under one hundred and fifty passing yards. So why is his number at two hundred and fifty five passing yards? I don't get it, and I know Garrett Goff is gonna rup it in my face probably, but I don't care. I think that this game is going to be gross. Like you said, the total is forty eight points. I just think it's
out of control. I don't know why it's so high, but yeah, I'm going to bet against Jared Goff this week and the Fantasy Football Semifinals, taking me under on his passing yards and we'll see how it goes.
Yeah, I also think that I'm on raw after that huge week two people are gonna be running to bet him again, and I don't know. I would be looking more for the under on his too. Maybe we're wrong, Maybe Gough has really turned the corner on these things. But historically speaking, those numbers it's a really big data set that suggests that this could be a rougher day for the Lions. Do I think they're gonna lose to the Bears.
No?
Do I think it's gonna be a gross game. It's very possible. I think it's definitely in the range of outcomes. As our friend Derek Brown likes to say, all right, let's get to the touchdowns. And of course, if you're looking for an edge when you're betting touchdowns, go to betting pros dot com slash touchdown. That's easy to remember,
and check out the touchdown score a report. The report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bets, odds, and projections to help identify the best anytime touch bets that you can make. So again betting pros dot com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown bet analysis. I'm going with B T J for one of my picks today plus one sixty five Mac Jones. Baby, Look, this is really more,
you know against the Raiders than anything else. I think this is a good matchup here that mac Jones could be useful yet again, and last week, look, he's been showing you since he's taken over that he could find BTJ in these spots. Strangers banged up too, So I think BTJ is kind of the only hope right now. He's the Obi wan Kenobi of this offense. And then I've already picked the Tennessee Titans. I think at an upset,
I think the Titans. I don't know why, I just got this weird feel and I was like, oh, yeah, it's just the Cole's just the colts man. The Colts find ways to lose games every single week, and Anthony Richardson's just all over the place. Titans play a little defense, and I think with Mason Rudolph back, there's two bets here. With wide receivers, you could take one of the two.
Whatever floats your boat, you could take both of them because they're both plus one eighty NWY for life, Nick Westbrookkaine, who has been a little touchdown drought lately, he's due, and Calvin Ridley a plus one to eighty as well, So you could take one or both. But I think Mason Rudolph is going to surprise some people and in some super flex leagues maybe garry some people to the finals, believe it or not, because people have been desperate for
some quarterbacks. I can, You're gonna get fifteen points against the Colts. Yes, yes he can. So we'll see how that goes. Welsh, let's talk about your touchdown calls four week sixteen.
Well, I'm gonna pair what I talked about with Brock Party. I'm gonna move over to George Kittle. Love the matchup, the best offensive advantage, and George Kittle is a touchdown magnet in general. Brock Prig really, I mean as much as like the deep option of what Juwan Jennings does, George Kittle almost at all times like the number one option for Rock Party. So I'm gonna go within anytime touchdown on George Kittle in that nice weather plus one fifty five and my deep play here three to one,
give me Craig Reynolds, Craig Wrent without David Montgomery. Craig Reynolds comes in probably going to see a little bit of that. I don't think he's gonna just take in the David Montgomery touches that team let's taken to be silly Gooses are not going to do that. You're gonna just give more run to Jamiir Gibbs. But don't be surprised when Jamiir Gibbs gets them to the line and then in comes Craig Reynolds from the two playing that David Montgomery after Gibbs had the hole drive and everyone
screams and complains about the vulturing. I'll take a three to one in that Bears matchup. You guys keep talking about as well, Bears garbage against the run. So that's the play if Jared GoF if the lines are gonna win the game, the total is so high, Jared God's gonna stink, a mon Rob Saint Brown's gonna stink. Someone has to be good. Jamiir Gibbs is clearly going to be good. You can also run against his team. Craig Renolds is going to get an opportunity. So three to
one on his touchdown call. That's my favorite deeper play really like the Reynolds won a lot.
All right, let's go real deep here because somebody's due Andrew Erickson and you're the guy to break him out. I feel it, I feel it in my bones.
Let's go, baby, they're wrong. Just early. Trey McBride going back to the well here. He's going to score a touchdown this week and I think he's gonna score touchdowns in bunches because the Carolina Panthers have allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends this season. This is so clearly on the Cardinals mind every time they talk about Train McBride,
like man s guy's every touchdowns. Cal Murray talking about in an interview like yeah, we got to get eighty five in the end zone, like it has to happen, and what better defense do it than against the Carolina Panthers, who are the kings of allowing the regression to hit. Twenty twenty two, Joe Mixon couldn't score touchdown play. The Panthers scored five five touchdowns at the end of the season, Mike Evans was terrible all year. Long plays the Panthers
scores three touchdowns. This is the spot where guys blow up in regression hits going in all in on Trede McBride. I want first touchdown, I want two touchdowns, I want three touchdowns. I want it all So Trey McBride, I'm all in, and you'll know how my day is going around.
It just became varuc assault. He's like, I want it.
Fathera, I want to trade McBride touchdown now, Father, I want Father, I don't want one. I want the insual thing. Andrew, whatever you want there, we won't get it for you. Off sutly get it for you. Depressing is gonna be if he doesn't get a touchdown, by the.
Way, and I'm gonna be very sad, and we'll.
Give us another tight end just to have some more fun here.
So I guess, I guess I'm pushing back on you because you like the Titan Again. I've I've kind of come full like one to eighty on the Titans. I think earlier in the week, I think on the live show, I talked about I like the Colts, and then I dove more into the matchup and I can't back Colts like like the I like the Titans too. I just know, I feel I know what to expect with Mason Rudolf. Again, It's Christmas season, Mason Rudolf. It's a great story. Yah YadA yadayah. So, but I wish to.
Give every December to save the day.
I'm going a different route with the receivers. I like chickakng wo as the anytime touchdown beds. So he's plus four hundred to score so you're getting a longer odds, and the receivers Tyler Boyd is hurt. Nick westburg Kini is also banged up, so I don't even know if those guys are going to play. And he had thirteen targets last week if you include all the penalties, he had eight from Mason Rudolph, so he's been on a
heater last couple of weeks. The Colts have also been a team where I know they're favored, but they've actually given up a lot of first touchdowns to the opposing team. So you can get Chicka kon Kua pretty bonkers odds for first touchdown score if Mason Ruff looks to him and three starts Mason Rudolph. Because I remember this very vividly for betting on the Titans. They scored in the first quarter in all three of the games that he started.
The scripted drive they have with Mason Rudolph works, and then they just don't score after that. So I think there's a lot of first touchdown opportunities with this Tennessee Titans offense, which is another reason why I can't back the Colts, and I like the Titans panship with the upset as well.
I got a weird feeling and we're gonna see some oddities in week sixteen. It's just I don't know. I think yesterday kind of I feel like Thursday night football. Sometimes. Every now and then we'll set the tone for how the rest of the week is gonna go. Like, would it shocked me if the Giants somehow beat the Falcons now, it would have shocked me. If Tennessee Titans one, no, it shocked me. If the Caroline Panthers one no. None of those things would shock me at all this week.
So buckle up, everybody, it's gonna be a fun ride week sixteen. Here things are not done at all. Have a great weekend, everybody watching the football. We'll be back again, of course next week for more action. Don't forget to subscribe to Betting Pros wherever you get your podcasts, and of course to the YouTube channel as well, and of course drop your comments below pixel you make it. What's your favorite prop of the week, We want to hear you.
And don't forget to ring that bell for notification, so you know every time a piece of content drops here on the channel, that'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh and Andrew ericson I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids, I want it now. Father.
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