Top 10 NFL Week 15 Player Prop Picks & Predictions (Ep. 620)

Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place your bets. It's me Joey P joe Pisapia and this is VP NFL. It's time to look ahead to the props and look way past Thursday Night Football. Oh what a punt fest. That was a lucky for me in one of my most important leagues. Ericson, I'm playing a team that has Kien Williams and Cooper Cup and let's just say the point total was not what they expected. So I think I'm very much alive fingers cross. Will

No, I did not.

Had the Deebo Samuel first touchdown which he dropped, which would have easily cashed and saved everything else that I had bet on that game. The Grendel receiving yards, the last thing I add to the car was actually the only good bet that came out of Thursday night football. But guys, what this means is we're due do for a big week ration, for a big, big Sunday, big Monday. So we're gonna bounce back because again, all the touchdowns are now gonna scored on Sunday because we got numb

So get ready, Rickson, it's not bitcoin. Touchdowns are not bitcoin. There's not a touchdown. Ye that made only a finite amount of touchdowns.

Ericson's cock eyed optimism is exactly what this world needs. And you need to take a little bit more of it with you this weekend. That's what I say, take it with you.

I don't need to hear anything from you right now. I don't know.

I wish they had beat buttons on here now. That game was trash. I only had wished that. Did they say it's the first game all season that didn't have any touchdowns because that was, like I believe, so it was like two twenty two to one or two twenty to one. If you bet no touchdown in that game, that was the only play.

What who would do that? Especially Pook had been playing and Stafford all that suff Yeah, we're on the Cincinnati folks. So let's move on. And don't forget when we're talking about props. Were using the prop bet cheat sheet. You can find it over at bettingpros dot com slash props or if you have the app, which you should download it sink your sports books for free. Use the prop bet cheat sheet to make all your prop bets. Welsh, let's shake the dust off and let's talk about bo Nicks,

Yeah, we're gonna go over and unlike uh DeAndre Campbell or Devondre Campbell or not gonna work here anymore, doesn't matter. Just because I lost doesn't mean I'm going to step off the show and not come back and play.

I'm a gamer, he's not. And we're going with bow Knicks.

Passing yards over two point thirty seven on the over, Yes, sir. He has hit this in three straight weeks. Colts have given this up in five of the last six weeks, coming off of a buye bo Nicks has Boonix just in general, the completion percentage and how he's worked. He has been this like low key, I like in their offense to like how Patrick mahomes and they'll have these rotational wide receivers keep moving throughout there. They've just like put bo Nix in a situation where he doesn't have

Rest and game planning. Just love it even more.

And as I think I said in the Prediction show to Ericson, bo Nicks is the horse king and the Colts will be the glue.

Well, last week, Ericson, you were dogging your boy Bryce Young with the under and you were right now this week different matchup their favorites against the Cowboys. What a fun time that is. This time you found an over with Bryce Young. So it looks like maybe, just maybe all your Carolina stuff is on track. Baby, it looks like mister Panther is on a roll. So how are we gonna make money on Bryce Young this week?

Let's get this straight. It's mister cardiac cat. The Panthers in their underdogs. That's in their Panthers. They're they're kittens. No, we've got the cardiac Cats coming out to play this week against Dallas at home. So the prop that I like the most is the one probably on my favorites this week is Bryce Young over his rushing yards at thirteen and a half. He's been over this in four straight games. He's at least seventeen rushing yards last four

Well for your second prop this week, we're gonna say, in the same game, go with cdee Lamb. Now is a receiving prop this week is around sixty three and a half. He has gone over this number three of the last four weeks, so can he do it again this week? Welsh?

Yes, and that is the play sticking into that game. I love this one, and I will tell you this one's actually gone down. This has gone down two yards since the early market. He's had six or more receptions in four of his last five games, as you mentioned, by the way, including three games of eight or more. He has hit this in three of his last four games. Highly graded, you know, like right near the top ten of the wide receiver quarterback matchup metric that they put on pff.

Which you like to see.

They're also dogs, so if they're behind, they're going to be throwing. And one thing that we know is Cooper Rush is going to continuously throw the ball to Ceedee Lamb. So the question can be that there was one of those games where it was like an absurd amount of receptions and the yards weren't there, But you're going to be able to do that with the Panthers, And I'm

On the betting.

Side, the last man's standing for the New Orleans Saints is Alvin Kamara, So a figure is going to get a lot of work. But Jake Canterer's playing quarterbacks, so maybe some three and outs could put that in jeopardy. So when you're looking at New Orleans this week, in this offense, and you're trying to evaluate Alvin can what side do you come out on?

Undertaker, the under, the under on Alvin Kamara under sixty eight and a half rushing yards. Look, he had the smash spot last week. He had seventeen carries against the Giants and got forty four yards two point six yards percare against the freaking New York Giants to have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

So in a game.

Where the Saints are underdogs against the Commanders coming off a bye week, with Jake Hayner making the start, I don't know how much rushing yard Alvin Kamara is going to accumulate in this spot sixty eight and a half rushing yards. He's hit this number twice since Week four. It's week fifteen, guys, It's week fifteen, and it's nowhere near Week four. So I think that with Kendre Miller back. In the four games with Kendry Miller played this year, Alvin Kamara has

I love this one too, you know, because I'm kind of on Candre Miller. They want you to press that over their offer, at least on DK right now, it's plus money to go over. You don't usually see plus money on rushing yard props, especially for running backs. So that's the play. Is this is steadily going down. Is they're wanting you to take that over, and I am with you on that. I kind of believe that Hendre Miller is going to be a little bit more involved.

For sure?

But I tried, and I wanted and I've contemplated some unders, So I love this one all right.

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Well, by the way we're you and I are in the age where you look at like a thirty four year old as an old farmer.

That's right. Well, he's a old far for football standards. That'd be for football for eric for.

Wide receivers too.

Yeah, get closer closer to old fart for football standards, ever closer, every shout out.

To betting pros and the Meme department for last night, using Ericson at one of the team meet up falls whide receiver against our boy AJ. I don't think everybody knew what it was, but it's one of the greatest quarter I know, you're the quarterback there and our guy AJ's there and Ericson. Erickson, you look so tall in that too. You look like you're going to have really good Adam feeling like separation. Just sometimes the routes they don't always run four with slippery.

That's one of the worst aesthetically like videos I've ever seen my entire life of myself, just like.

A but just terrible.

It's pretty, it's pretty amazing. But onto Adam Thielen. I love this number. I actually started on the receptions. I know you guys always like yards more than receptions. I'll get down with the receptions. But four and a half was the receiving reception number, which I think is a smash.

Ryan Robinson Junior over six and a half receiving yards is where we're going next. So not the rushing, but the receiving. So Andrew, let's talk about this one. I know Austin Eckler is gonna be out here again, So he's probably not gonna when we're gonna get him back, if we're gonna get him back. But Robinson's role, especially coming off a buy, expects to be pretty large, and this seems like a pretty easy number to get. So where are you going here?

Yeah, I just think it's really really low for a player that, Yeah, you're not looking at Brian Robinson as this player that's known for his receiving props per se. But he's gone over this number in three of his last four. When I first got him's at five and a half receiving yards. He's gone over that in four straight games. So he's had at least six receiving yards in four straight games. So you're feeling pretty good if

Like he's on edge reserve, he's not coming back.

So even if Jerry m McNichols is playing in that Eckler role, I still think Robinson is good for at least one or two screen passes behind the line of scrimmage. And what do we know about the Saints. They cannot tackle, Like they're one of the worst tackling teams. In the end, they'll still try to tackle Sean Tucker from Week five or whatever, that monster game. So Brian Robinson again, he can get this on the first drive. You get this on the first play they decide to like dial up

I want to throw out that I almost put this on my card and I did bet it. So I talked about like, oh I almost did the under. This is one that I've got my own sheet, and I you know these are the bets I'm gonna do, and here's the ones I put on the show.

I bet this one. I'm with you.

I also got five and a half, which seems like an absolute smash. So this is a definite co sign here as one that is already on the betting pros app under my name.

Yeah. I also put it together with him scoring anytime touchdown, which is minus three already on the Jews pretty heavy this week, which feels, you know, probably right. But we put that together with this number here, the six and a half, you get plus one seventy. That's a pretty good spot to live into. You get that into plus money. That seems like a lock there for me. Let's get

We are going to take those touchdowns on all those stats over those four games. Add one more stat he has had two touchdowns or more in those four straight games he has thrown. So we are going over one point five on the passing touchdowns the Texans, they have given up two or more touchdowns in four or five games. You can't run against the Texans. The Dolphins can move. They're definitely not that early season's Dolphins where every other play is a run and we're like, what the hell is going on?

Now?

They're getting the ball on the air more Tyreek Hill. I'll tell you I have a Tyreek Hill bet. But the line moved a little too much. I took him off of the show. I was going to put the receiving yards on this show, but I took it early, and it's moved up three or four yards already. And this is just a really great spot. So two is hitting this from the passing department. You can pass against the Texans while not running, So I think that is

I like this one a lot too well because I think too you look at the Texans, they give up the highest percentage of passing touchdowns in the NFL. So whenever Miami does ultimately score, it's probably going to be through the air, even.

If it's a pass to eight Chan or Wattle or Tyreek Kill. So this is a really good one.

Or John Oan overtime to screw up your your playoff run, playoff runt.

No bitterness, none whatsoever. A big market game between the Bills and the Lions. And usually when you're talking about running backs in the Lions catching the football, we're talking abou Jamir Gibbs. But instead we're gonna talk about David Montgomery. Here's a fun fact. Seven to last eight weeks, he's gone over this number for receiving yards. Now, I didn't quite realize that. I know you got it fifteen and a half. I see it on betting pros at sixteen.

Yeah, he's been kind of under the radar as the receiving back in this backfield. And shout out to the

All right, Welsh, let's go to the Battle of Pennsylvania for the last one. We're gonna start with here and then we'll get to the touchdown calls. So Russell Wilson not passing stuff this week, but rushing is where you're going, so let's talk about the why.

Yeah, I ended up really loving this one, and like, I don't bet a whole lot of Russ props or anything like that, but just as I kept digging in seven point five rushing yards for us this week, and I was like, Okay, this is interesting because it's a tough matchup against Philly, But what's like the one thing

Now seven point five rushing yards.

He has hit this in two of his last three games, while never this season having less than three rushes per game. So you've got a floor of three rushes per game. You've also now got a deep game that is taken away from him. Let's throw the Eagles into this. The Eagles have given up this rushing yard number two quarterbacks they've played against every single week of the season, starting from Week four on. It doesn't matter the quarterback. Trevor Lawrence is in there, hit it, Joe Burrow's in there,

I think it's a very interesting one. I mentioned to Ericson that I feel like at some point Field is going to get some work in this game, because when you're down at a weapon like Pickens, you want to try to offset things a little bit. I've been searching everywhere. I can't get any justin Fields props. I'm even looking for like an any time touchdown for him right now,

I can't wait to see like when Russ has his eyes glow right and then he's like I'm gonna run. I'm gonna run him. In my mind, I'm like, let Ross cook, let's go.

Yeah, I want him to run.

I mean, by the way, like because I love this one. Like last week, as we're going four and one, just want to point that out. I'm very jaded right now because of the Niners and losing my off from last night. But I was great last week on this show. But like one of my favorites was Bijon, and that was only one that didn't hit. This will probably be the one because the logic is there. I do want to point out to you DraftKings has justin fields anytime touchdown at plus seven hundred, so seven to one.

Oh so DK's got it, okay. I was looking on VANDU that couldn't find it there. I couldn't find on the app yet. So that's good. That's very good news. All right. So, speaking of good process, I know you've been talking all weeks since Monday, you've been talking about Jalen Hurts in the same game Ericson. You've got some feelings about this one too. He had been very turnover prone last year. This year it's been always a more conservative offense, much to the chagrin of AJ Brown. But

Yeah, Jalen Hurts is going to throw an interception this week. It's going to happen. Because we're talking.

About the Steelers. We love the Steelers plus five and a half. So how do they cover this game? Oh, well, they get an interception. I'm Jalen Hurts. Like it's pretty intuitive to think, Okay, well they get a pick, they're going to cover the five and a half point spread. This game is going to go under the total because it's going to be gritty, gonna go through the mud.

There you go, So I iNTS are coming for Jalen Hurts and hopefully some touchdowns as well well. And the Touchdown Score Report at bettingpros dot com slash touchdown is the way to get an edge on your touchdown bets. Our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime touchdown bets you're gonna find anywhere. It's head over right now to bettingpros dot com slash touchdown for the latest

Yeah, let's call it the Trey mcdouble.

Right, Trey McBride's going to score two touties this week against the New England Patriots, like they're the worst defense in terms of EPA allowed per play to players in pass catches that are aligned tight. And we all know the shtick with Trey McBride this year. Can't catch touchdown. He sees all these red zone targets, is on pace to have the most receiving yards targets without a receiving touchdown.

YadA, YadA, YadA.

Okay, this is where regression comes to head, right, this is where you have an explosion game in an exposable matchup we know that we're going to see Christian Gonzales cover of Marvin Harrison Junior. Patriot's defense is overall very bad, and I don't think they have anyone that can really stop Trey McBride, who is a drowning in targets over the last couple of weeks.

So I love McBride here. And it's funny.

I mentioned this on the FP Show l this week, but there's actually special on DraftKings because they're also aware of the the Trey McBride lack of touchdowns. At plus seven hundred, bet McBride to have nine receptions and not score a touchdown and it's called Trey McBride's maid basically.

So I like that.

So it's an interesting if you want to go heavy on some of these multi touchdown approaches to the baby ride. Again, he's probably gonna have a ton of catches in yards in this game too, But that's just an interesting thing that I was looking at that I thought was kind of funny because the books are aware that Pride is allergic to the end zone. So, uh yeah, trading Brad scoring this week, okay?

Uh And you've also got one for with a stone cold Steve Austin to get the end zone this week. Who is it? You got there?

Oh?

Yeah, but uh, that's smarter, not harder, guys, Stone, I'm doing it for all the bits and the trade.

That's smarter, not harder.

Big double with cheese, So we go Stone Smart.

Uh.

Tight end for those aren't aware. Tight end for the Los Angeles Chargers. I think Joe, it's been a long season. I think I finally found my Donald Parhum that I've been looking for as.

A replacement all this time.

And I think again a uh, former wide receiver convert Chargers tight end that is Stone Smart here. So I expect him to get the start this week. With Will Disley out last week, in just the second half, he had three targets fifty four yards twenty four yard grab. And what I've noticed with Justin Herbert this year is it doesn't matter who the titand has been like he has hyper targeted that position. And you look at the matchup. The Hit Bay Buccaneers are one of the worst defenses

Here we go, one smart fellow, he felt smart. All right, Welsh, your turn. Let's blow this up here with some touchdown call.

Man Ericson loves those tight ends.

I mean, if we could have a percentage of how many times you bet tight end touchdowns fifty percent I think on the year. But all right, my touchdown calls this week, number one, we are going with a tight end. Would you look at that? I am going with a tight end. I'm going with brock Bowers. It's interesting when you look at the Falcons. The Falcons are getting demolished

For the Raiders.

This is a great spot to a secondary. When they move Bowers out, I mean mayor Michael Mayer, they've end up putting in as a tight end spot who's played really well. Brock Bowers is going to score. It's plus one sixty this week. It's a great matchup. My other touchdown call going with a quarterback going than anytime touchdown Lamar Jackson. That one is sitting around plus one point eighty,

Fun, fat, guys. I know you like fun facts. So there's two games on the slate where there's any time touchdown scores that are all in the plus money. Do you want to guess what those two games might be? So no minus, So there's no expectations. I feel like Vegas is silently telling us, maybe you should take the unders in these games. I'm just saying I think it's kind of interesting. You rarely see that that, like one guy is not in the minus or at least even money,

Here, I am going to say, ooh, this is really tough.

Just think it's fun. This is just fun at the end of the show, all right, Jaguars, Jets, Jaguars is one of them. Jaguars plus one thirty DeVante Adams is the best one you get. No, it's not the Broncos right now anyway as a record.

Not can't be, can't be Steel's Eagles, No, no.

Hey, Patriots, Cardinals, now Connor's.

No, No, it's actually Brown's and Kansas City Chiefs. Everybody's in the plus money on that one. Interesting, So the best one is Pacheco plus one twenty.

Yeah, that's really clear. Okay, that's the.

Lowest of the of the I just thought that was really odd. Typically there's only always one guy and if you get a game like that, Okay, maybe you get one game like that where everyone's a plus, but not too. Honestly, it's typically an odd thing.

So yeah, that seems uh fishy Verry sauce, very saus So Travis kell is gonna score this week? Then I guess he asked he has to score.

Need Andre Hopkins to go absolutely ballistic. Shout out to Derek Brown who has me laddering DeAndre Hopkins this week.

Well, I mean weather, it could be an issue in that one, so just pay attention before I bet it. Well, you gotta sit your line alerts over on the Betting Pros app and again download that bad boy, subscribe to the Betting Pros podcast wherever you get your pods and of course our YouTube channel as well. That's what you do, and drop your comments below. What are your favorite prop bets for Week fifteen? That I'll do it for us those are hours, but the story of the game goes

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