The Masters: Odds, Bets PGA Bets & One-And-Done Picks (Ep. 690)

Harmon raced out to an early lead by shooting sixty six in each of his first two rounds. Then the win picked up on the weekend and Harmon hung on. He shot a sporty seventy two Saturday in the blustery conditions. He shot a three over par seventy five on Sunday, but still won by three shots over Ryan Girard and Maverick McNeely. No one ever seriously threatened Harmon on the weekend. Gerard surged into second place on the strength of a final day sixty nine. He was one of only three

players to break seventy in the difficult scoring conditions. On Sunday at TPC San Antonio, Maverick McNeely was steady eddie rounds of sixty eight, seventy two, seventy one and seventy two. MAV is still on the come up, and I think it's worth remembering how solidly he blamed the windy conditions over the weekend. I'm not sure what else to say about the Valero Texas Open Bow. It was kind of a tough watch. Honestly. Brian Harmon is, let's generously call

him deliberate as a player. There's some great songs that are shorter than Brian Harmon's pre shot routine.

was nice. But not getting an outright when there. It's not that into the world there because we are all kind of anticipating this week the Valero Texas Open. Afterthought already out of my memory. Moving on, I don't want to talk about Brian Harmon anymore than I have to.

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captures those elevation changes. Maybe you get a sense of it when you see players on the tenth t looking down that ski slope of a fairway fairway that drops more than one hundred feet off the tee. It's the uphill climbs that you don't always get a sense of when you're watching on television. Because of the rolling terrain, Augusta National constantly challenges players with uneven lies, much more so than I think at any other tour venue. Congratulations

on putting your drive in the fairway. Now try to hit a high fade with a five iron from a hook with the ball a hook lie with the ball above your feet like that is a challenge players often have to face on the par five to thirteenth hole, or they look toward the green, you know all the azaleas in bloom behind the back bunkers, and you know they've got that tough lie. Or they might have to hit an approach shot off a downslope to an elevated green.

That's the challenge of number nine, a very underrated par four it Augusta. Shot shaping very important. There are some t shots where you're asked to work the ball from right to left, as on the thirteenth hall, where you want to avoid that stand of pine trees on the right side in order to have a go at the green in two. There are a lot of times when players will want to work the ball from left to right. Now, the fairways are generally pretty wide at Augusta National, and

the rough range is from light to nonexistent. The big hitters do have an advantage here. Distance helps conquer the power fives and gives players an edge on some of the tougher par fours. Holes number ten and eleven jump to mind. But you don't need to be a big hitter to win the Masters, especially if conditions are firm and fast. We've seen bunters like Mike Weir and Zach Johnson wing green jackets. Now I mentioned the fairways are

generally wide. There are some exceptions, no question, notably the t shot on the eighteenth hole that has to be one of the most terrifying t shots players will hit all year, with its narrow shoot between the trees to an uphill fairway. They're well placed bunkers all over the course. The only hole that doesn't have any bunkers is the par four fourteenth. Greenside bunkers aren't necessarily the worst place to be in many instances, but the fairway bunkers that

Augusta can be pretty punishing. They're deep, and the sand at Augusta is soft. Can be pretty difficult to flush the ball out of a fairway bunker. And then bo there are the greens. Their bent grass and they are blazing fast. They're the toughest greens players are going to face all year. Augusta Nationals greens are big and undulating, with all sorts of complicated slopes. Puts can break severely if you don't put your shot in the right spot

on the green. They're gonna be instances this week where players are actually hitting their putts away from the hole at more than one hundred and eighty degrees. They're gonna be three putts galore. There'll be some four, maybe even five putts. Ernie Elle's famously six putted the first hole from only three feet away in twenty sixteen. The greens just they make shot placements so critical. Stay below the

hole and you'll be in great shape. Miss your target and end up above the hole, good luck to you. But the undulations of the Augusta greens can actually be friendly to players. Some greens will funnel well play shots toward the hole, setting up short birdie puts. You'll see that on the tiered eighteenth green, for instance. Players use the backboard for a little spin down to the hole when the pin is in the front of the green.

We'll see it so on the sixteenth hole with that tricky left side pin placement on the lowest part of the green, and memorably we saw it on the par five second hole in twenty twelve, when Louis Ustasen landed his second shot on the front of the green and let it chase some eighty feet to the back right part of the green, it dropped in for a double eagle. That was the year Usti lost a playoff to Bubba Watson.

It's very helpful to have experience with these greens. It's a big reason why it's rare for first timers to contend a at Gosten, why we see some of the same names on the leaderboard year after year. Ludwig Oberg was kind of an exception last year, finishing second in his Maden voyage at the Masters. You have to score well on the par fives here, no question about it. They are all very reachable in two. The thirteenth of

the fifteenth holes are especially famous. I've talked about the thirteenth, which is five hundred and forty five yards and technically the easiest hole in the course as far as scoring average.

to that crazy triangular green. Number eight gives you a blind uphill approach to a green guarded by mounds on either side, and negotiating the part threes is pretty critical too. The back nine has the famous twelfth hole, maybe the best and most difficult short part three in the world. It's only one hundred and fifty five yards to a long but extremely shallow green. You have to clear Rays Creek, and there's a steep embankment on the far side of the creek that will bat balls back into the water.

The wind is extremely hard to judge on the twelfth hole, and Jordan Speith came to the twelfth with a five shot lead in the final round in twenty sixteen. His t shot hit the bank on the far side of Rays Creek and bounce back into the water. He hit his third shot fat from the drop area into the creek again. He sailed his fifth shot into the back bunker. Speeth took a quadruple bogie seven on the twelfth he lost to Danny Willett by three shots after leading by

five with seven holes to play. Then there's the fame sixteenth hole with the pond in front of the hole into the left. It's this is the hole where Tiger Woods had the famous chip in during his duel with Chris DeMarco in two thousand and five. And the power threes on the front nine both play downhill. Number four is a two hundred and forty yard monster. You need to hit a great long iron to get the ball

close to the hole. Number six is one hundred and eighty yards to one of the trickier greens on the course. And let's not leave out the par fours. The tenth and the eleventh holes are both long downhill dog legs. Number ten it's the hardest hole on the course by scoring average. Number eleven second hardest hole on the course. Number fourteen and number seventeen don't appear to be that complicated until you get to the greens. The fourteenth and

seventeenth greens are both labby Corinthian. They might be the two toughest greens on the course. We talked about the eighteenth hole with its narrow, little shoot off the tee and its uphill approach to a tiered green front. Nine power fours are excellent too. I love number three. It's only three hundred and sixty yards, but it's another hole with a demanding green. Putting your wedge in the right spot is critical. Also a big fan of the four hundred and ninety five yard fifth hole with its big,

bumpy green bottom line. There is not a single pushover hole at Augusta National. Every hole can yield a bow gear worse if you play it sloppily, but not any hole at Augusta is unconquerable. Like every hole here will yield a birdie or even an eagle if you play it artfully. The weather forecast for Augusta, Georgia this week pretty ideal, temperatures ranging from the low sixties to the mid seventies, no rain in the forecast, wins of five to ten miles an hour, maybe a little breezier than

that on Friday. Not enough wind to really punish the players, but enough to challenged them now. Scotti Scheffler is the defending champion. He finished eleven under par last year, four shots better than Ludwig Oberg. It was Scotty's second win at the Masters. He also won in twenty two twenty twenty two, finishing minus ten and beating Rory McElroy by three shots. John Ram won in twenty twenty three. He was twelve under, four shots clear of Phil Mickelson and

Brooks Koepka. Haadeki Matsuiama won in twenty twenty one. He finished minus ten to beat will Zalatoris by one stroke, and Dustin Johnson won the twenty twenty Masters, which was played in the fall that year due to COVID. DJ went twenty under par to win by five shots. I love this course, bo sprinkle my ashes here when I'm gone. Your thoughts on augustin Nashal.

is the barometer for all championship golfers. If you're in this field, you want to be able to hold yourself up to that standard of how did I do at the Masters When the field is the strongest, it's the most concentrated at the top. Every top golfer is here, and every top golfer who's conquered Augusta in the past that's able to is here. That's what is The majesty of this tournament is unmistakable. It's unparalleled. You cannot beat

to the Masters in any way, shape or form. And as for Gary Player who says it's not even in his top fifty golf courses, hogwash. This is the best golf course in the world. Maybe not the most famous, it's up there in fame too, but it's the best golf course in the world. And it's also the most exclusive. It has the mystique, it has the allure, and it's like, how often does a golfer want to venture into the

woods for an experience like that? Well, here you go, tucked back into the woods is the crown jewel of championship golf. And it's just it's just the best. It's perfect.

DraftKings Fantasy app. It's simple to play, build your dream lineup while staying under the salary cap, then sit back and watches your player's rack up points, every birdie, every bogie, every clutch pot, feel the intensity of every shot. I talked about wanting to get Patrick Reid into my Draft Kings DFS lineups last week. Bo I do indeed think he's value priced at seventy three hundred, another bargain.

you're finding Patrick Reid. I love that pick. But how about a guy who's averaging eighty DraftKings points a week this season, Sepstrack at seventy six hundred. That's a great value one of the best approach players with short game that we have in this field, and he just seems to He seems to do well when the conditions get tough. And guess what, It's not going to be easy this week.

six nine. In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling Call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org eighteen plus in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Voidware prohibited new customers only, Minimum ten dollars deposit required. One single use ten dollars ticket rewarded for Fantasy Golf Millionaire contest that expires on April tenth at seven am.

See terms at DraftKings dot com Slash Promotions sponsored by DraftKings Now for the master's odds. These odds are courtesy of the DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday morning. Please know that some player odds will have changed slightly by the time you consume this show. Scotty Scheffler is the favorite at plus four hundred. Rory McElroy is plus six fifty short odds for Rory to win his first Green Jacket

this week. Big John Rahm is plus thirteen hundred. Bryce and d Chambeau, Colin Morikawa and Xander Schoffley are plus eighteen hundred. Ludwig Oberg is plus two thousand, Justin Thomas plus twenty five hundred, Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama are plus three thousand, Jordan Spieth is plus thirty five hundred, and Victor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Cantley our plus

four thousand. Let's talk about this GROUPO, how do you feel about Scotty at plus four hundred and Rory at plus six fifty and do any of the other players stand out to you?

he's cursed. I still think that these odds are an insult to bookmaking because it's just a bunch of suckers like us out there wanting to ride that Rory wave. And yes it was very tempting, but to get the number three ranked golfer in the world at plus eighteen hundred is ludicrous. Xanderschoffley is a better track record at Augusta National than Rory does. He's playing decently well for coming off an injury earlier this season, and I think as far as it goes, he's a better horse for

this course than is Rory McElroy. I'm probably gonna withhold my Scottie Scheffler betting unless I get a double digit odds type of live bet setup where he's still within striking distance with enough holes to play to catch up and make that bet worth it. But I'm starting my outright card with Xanderschoff, and I'm going to run right into Ludwig Oberg at plus two thousand. Shaffley is the longest odds I could ever predict, because I handicapped him

at plus eight hundred. So getting an extra ten to one odds for a guy that's number three in the world and a multiple major winner last year, defending PGA champion, defending champion Golf of the Year last year, and we're going to talk about this guy being rolled over into plus eighteen hundred territory. It's ludicrous. And on the same token, I'm betting Ludwig Oberg at the absolute shortest odds I would bet him at at plus two thousand. That's just

because his upside is unmistakable. This guy has more of a killer instinct than you they would ever imagine. He's got a lot more brooks kept cut under the hood than he does. Somebody meek and mild like his outside persona very cheerful, very very calm and collected, but that dude is an ice cold killer under the surface. Like brooks Kepi. He's a big game hunter and he's got the upside that could run away with the Masters tournament

like he almost did last year. He almost ran down Scotty Shuffler last year until he dunked one on eleven. And that is why I think that he could make a Tiger esque run at a Masters in his career where he just dominates the field by double digit strokes. Lud Vic Oberg has that in his range of outcomes. I don't think anybody outside of Scotty has that.

everything else with him. Xander top ten at the Masters three of the last four years, hasn't quite gotten into the groove yet. In twenty twenty five, he had the slow start, but you know, would it really be to see him turn it on this week?

Maybe double Bogie's one of his first couple of holes, or maybe another player jumps out to a multi shot lead and all of a sudden, Scotty goes to plus eight hundred. That's where I might look to pounce on a Scotty outright. I'm with young Rory bo like very sharp this year, wins at Pebble Beach in the Players Championship, and man, you'd think he'd have at least one green

jacket by now. But ever since that faithful Sunday and twenty eleven when a twenty one year old Rory McElroy took a five shot lead into the final round and shot eighty that day, it has been one tail of ball after another for Rory at augusta runner up in twenty twenty two, but he's missed the cut in two of his last four Masters twenty second last year. He could absolutely win this week, and I'd love to see it. Not eager to jump on him at plus six fifty.

What about Ram at plus thirteen hundred bow He's won the Masters, hasn't won on the Live Tour yet this year, but he's played pretty well a lot of top tens. It's got that great combination of power off the tee and touch around the greens. Do you think there's any value at plus thirteen hundred.

and be happy about it. I'm just not as excited as some people are about him, because again, we haven't seen him really have that killer instinct that he showed a couple of years ago at Augusta to win. I just don't. I don't see the win here. I don't see the hunger it's required to win here this year. This field is loaded, and I just want to see that fire come back to John Ram. He's a Spaniard

for Gord's sake. We gotta see that fire comeback so we can be eating pie at the Champions dinner next year.

in the world. You have to be able to putt, you have to be able to make birdie putts, you have to be able to salvage two putts on Augusta National and that's what's held calling back and the tale of two guys who both dunked their approach shots on number eleven last year down the stretch trying to chase down Scotti Scheffler lud Vig Oeberg dunked it on eleven and smiled a rise smile to his caddy saying, well, I guess that's it, folks, and he kept playing. Calin

more Kawa done his approach on eleven. It looked like he shut down completely, absolutely devastated. You could see his entire like focus cracked. It crumbled, like he crumbled like a cracker, like a like a chocolate chip cookie. It's been left out in the sun. He folded. That was not what I want to see in a championship like this one. He might not ever have the killer instinct required to win a green jacket, and for him to get bet up as inflated as he is, I just

don't see it. As much as I love watching him play, I just don't see it. And I will not be placing any bets on Colin Morikawa this year. We're ever at the Masters.

he have the needed touch around the greens. I think that's the big question, And really, will his distance off the t be a big advantage in a week when the course is going to be pretty dry and firm, Like I'd be much more intrigued if Bryson were playing kind of a saggy Augusta. I'd also be more intrigued if you weren't a YouTube superstar who's fame is probably artificially lowering his odds. So are you with me that there's not a lot of value on Bryson at plus eighteen hundred.

misses you can't have. And Bryson impressed me, so I'm more likely to bet Bryson than I am Colin or Rory. Because of that, will I still feature him on my card? Probably not, because, again, the chipping and putting is such a stressor on all these players that I'm going to be leaning towards the guys who are not just adequate in the short game but elite.

a row. This is a different Justin Thomas. It's good. It's just a different style of play than we've seen in the last couple of years. So I hope he does well. I'm just not gonna be betting on it.

Wyndham Clark is plus eight thousand. Let's talk about these guys, but is there any betting value in this range?

in this mid range, I'm looking for the thinkers. I'm looking for the guys who aren't going to crack under the pressure and aren't going to be ruined by one bad hole. And so with that being said, I'm going to actually look to see Hideki Matziyama, a prior champion, kind of slip into that mid tier. If he slips to thirty five or forty to one, we're looking at a huge, huge investment and ladder bet for me because

a is a prior champion. One of the best master's moments I've ever seen was him and his caddie turning towards the eighteenth fair we had bowing to the setting Georgian sun. This guy is playing outstanding golf right now, and there's no telling how much more of a memory he's going to create at this golf course when he's a what twenty six years old. Hideki Matziama is still in the prime of his career. He's playing great golf and he's already got that good vibes going at Augusta National.

That's a guy that I'm willing to throw a lot of money on, especially if he slips past thirty to one to thirty five or forty. And then the other guy is who doesn't like Cameron Smith at Augusta. This guy just a He's a top ten machine at Augusta. It's because he plays a timeless style of golf where he's not that great off the tee. He's a short hitter. He plays a more positional style. There is not a more lethal golfer in the world with a wedge and

putter in his hand. There's just not. He's number one in every short game metric, He's number one in every putting metric. He's number one in every short game thing you can even measure. And the proof is in the pudding. This guy is fun to watch. He scores on tough golf courses. It's because he does not really he does not relent when a wedge or putter is in his hand. And I think that he breaks through this year in a big way. At sixty to one, that's an insult.

He's plus four hundred just to get a top ten, which he's done every year, but one that he's been at Augusta.

hundred and strokes gained scrambling. But at fifty five to one, I'm definitely interested. I'm also kind of interested in Robert McIntyre, like left handers might have an advantage here with the way they shape the ball, especially the ones who play the fade and Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Mike Weir all lefties,

all pass champions multiple times for Phil and Bubba. McIntyre has finished twelfth and twenty third and two previous Masters starts, and his recent form has been pretty solid eleventh, ninth, and ninth in his last three PGA Tour events. Will v Xalatorus excuse me, looks like really good value great ball striker hasn't had a top ten this year, but he's had three straight top tens at the Masters. And speaking of great ball strikers, bo, I'm kind of conflicted

on Corey Connors. He's pretty dialed in three top tens in his last four events. He was just eighteenth at the Valero Counters was making a big move on Saturday at the Valero. Then he three part of the par five seventeenth for a bogie, And that is the concern for Corey Connors at Augusta. He's not a good putter by PJ Tour standards, short game. Can he pot well

enough to win at Augusta? But can he be a VJ Singh a guy who's a great ball striker and a mediocre putter, but his putter gets hot for four days. That's what happened to VJ when he won the Masters.

This guy's playing great golf and he's he's just he's so sharp on approach this year that I don't see his weaknesses really showing up. Because this guy's always been a great scrambler, always been a great grinder, and his kind of his tee to green game has put what's held him back in the past. Well, guess what, He's as sharp as he's ever been, top seven in this field on approach, and he's one of the best par

five scorers in this field period. He's at one hundred to one, and I can absolutely see Keegan Bradley going on one of those miracle runs where he just gets the crowd fired up and he goes out there and the patrons, as they call him at Augusta National, will definitely be behind the captain of TM USA for the Ryder Cup and the last one is two hundred and fifty to one. It's a yolo vet. It's just based

on short game. Christian Bizet Note of South Africa. He hasn't won anything since twenty twenty, but he's playing his best golf of his career right now. He's got the short game to stay in contention, make the cut his top twenty bettest plus four hundred. I just think that it's something that's just it's a feel bet for me where I'm just looking at the course setup and who

might fit in a basis. But he's played the Masters three times, not in the last two years, but though the three times he's played the Masters, he's made the cut all three times. So I do like his fit here, especially with the form he's carrying in.

plus four hundred. I don't think he can win, but I think he can finish top ten as well as he's been hitting the ball. Sergio Garcia for a top twenty at plus one seventy five. Mind you, at top twenty, Sergio has actually been playing pretty well lately. He's hitting the ball great. And Phil Mickelson for a top twenty at plus three hundred and to make the cut at minus one fifteen. I think those are both really good bets.

And then my two biggest investments of the week Bow I am ladder betting Patrick Reid one hundred to one to win, eleven to one for a top five, plus four fifty for a top ten, and plus one eighty for a top twenty and I have a substantial wager on Max Homa to miss the cut at even money plus one hundred. Home has been utterly lost this year. He's missed five straight cuts. His best finish was a fifty third at Pebble Beach back in February. Maxhoma recently

changed caddies. He had one of his closest friends since childhood on his bag. They've parted ways. I don't think there's any way Maxhoma makes the cut this week. Maxhoma missing the cut is my favorite single bet of the week. I hate to be a grave dancer bow, but you know, I just think that's a fantastic money making opportunity. Now for our one and done picks. BO had Akshay Battia

last week at the Valero. He missed the cut. Bo's very first miss cut of the year, ending a streak of thirteen straight events in which Bo's player made the cuts. I had Corey Connors. He tied for eighteenth, good for one hundred and thirteen and fifty dollars. You are up first at the Masters Bow.

I am going to take Big Jon Rahm. And that is all for this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast sponsored by DraftKings. We'd like to thank DraftKings for their sponsorship. Please come join us again next week for our recap of the Masters and our betting preview of the RBC Heritage.