Hey everyone on Pat Fitzmorris, managing editor of Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros, here to run through some of my favorite Week eighteen player props and trying to wash last week's bad taste out of my mouth. I think we are now at seventy one and fifty for the season. Still a pretty solid season overall, but yeah, last week was bad. Let's turn things around, and let's start with Josh Dobbs under two hundred and four point five passing yards.
So Dobbs made his first NFL start in Week seventeen and completed twenty of thirty nine passes for two hundred and thirty two yards with one touchdown in one interception against the Cowboys. With Ryan Tannehill uninjured reserve after ankle surgery, and with rookie Malik Willis having played poorly in his stint as Tannehill's replacement, Dobbs is going to get another start here in an attempt to save the Titans season.
They've lost six straits, but they can still get into the playoffs Saturday night with a win over the Jaguars. The Jaguars are twenty ninth in DVA against the pass this year. Their pass defense has generally not been good, but over their last four games they are seventh in DA against the pass. They have been better lately. The Titans have been one of the run heaviest teams in the league this year. They are running on forty eight
point seven percent of their offensive snaps. I think they're just going to pound away with Derrick Henry in this game and try to minimize the burden on the inexperienced Dobs, So I think Dobbs under two hundred and four point five yards is a pretty good bet here. I'm also taking the under on Kenny Pickett's passing yardage, which is set at one hundred and ninety six point five yards. He is going against the Browns this weekend, and the Browns pass defense has been quietly excellent for the last
two months. Over Cleveland's last ten games, only four of their opponents have thrown for more than two hundred yards and only one has thrown for more than two hundred and twenty nine yards, so they've basically just been shutting down every other passing game they've faced. Since Week seven, the Browns are number two in DVA against the pass. Pickett in his starts and We're not going to count the Week fourteen start against the Ravens, where he was
knocked out early with a concussion. In his ten other starts, he's averaged two hundred and eight point nine passing yards. Look for him to finish pretty well below that number this week against this excellent Cleveland defense, which, by the way, has been a run funnel this year. Cleveland is not very good against the run, and the Browns have faced the sixth fewest pass attempts this season. So can he Pickett under one hundred and ninety six point five passing yards.
I like Isaiah Pacheco, the Chiefs running back, to go over sixty one point five rushing yards this week. Pacheco has fallen short of this number in his last two games, but before that he had rattled off six straight games with better than sixty one and a half rushing yards. So six of his last eight he has cleared this number, and over those eight games he's averaged fourteen point eight rushing attempts and seventy one point one rushing yards per game.
He is facing a Las Vegas defense that ranks twenty first in DVA against the run, and the Raiders have given up an average of one hundred and sixty point seven rushing yards over their last three games. They were completely trampled by the Patriots Ramondre Stevenson in week fifteen he had one hundred and seventy two rushing yards against them, and Christian McCaffrey of the forty nine ers had one hundred and twenty one rushing yards against them last week.
I think Pachecko can top sixty one and a half rushing yards pretty easily here, so I like Pachecko over sixty one point five rushing yards. We will get to the rest of this week's plays in just a minute, but first, do you want to track all of your wagers in one place. Check out the Betting prospicktracker at
bettingpros dot com slash pick hyphen tracking. It syncs up with your sportsbook to tally which picks hit and which ones miss, and it gives you a live look at what the public is doing, so you can use real time tracking to determine which place to make and which ones to fade. So get on the leaderboard and quickly become a sharp by using the free advice we have to offer at bettingpros dot com slash pick hyphen tracking. All right, let's get to the rest of this week's selections.
Travis Etn under sixty one point five rushing yards. On the surface, I don't love the idea of betting an under on Etn since he's been so good lately, averaging ninety eight rushing yards over his last three games. But this is more about the Titans run defense than it is about Etn himself. When Etn faced the Titans in Week fourteen, he had seventeen carries for just thirty two years yards. The Titans have held thirteen of their last
fourteen opponents under one hundred rushing yards. They've given up only sixty five point four rushing yards a game to opposing running backs this season, second lowest total in the league behind only the forty nine ers, and Tennessee's defense
has just been a pass funnel all season. It has faced a league high six hundred and thirty nine pass attempts this season and only three hundred and seventy six rushing attempts, third fewest, which means the Titans opponents have run the ball on only thirty seven percent of their offensive snaps this year. Teams attack the Tennessee Titans through
the air, not on the ground. I think ETN finishes with under sixty one and a half rushing yards Dereck Henry and yes, I'm hitting this Titans Jaguars game pretty hard because motivation levels are always hard to gauge in Week eighteen, but we know the Titans and Jaguars are both going to be motivated in a game that will settle the AFC South title and will give someone a playoff spot and send someone home. So both teams very
motivated for this one. And as mentioned earlier, the Titans are probably going to run the ball as much as possible this week to try to minimize the Josh Dobbs effect on this game. Dobbs is inexperienced. I think they'll try to take the ball out of his hands as much as possible. Dereck Henry has run for more than one hundred yards in three straight games, and he is averaging ninety five point three rushing yards for this season. When Henry faced the Jaguars in Week fourteen seventeen, carries
one hundred and twenty one yards. I think he gets over eighty nine point five rushing yards this week. Jeric McKinnon over thirty two point five rushing or receiving yards. Excuse me. McKinnon has cleared this number in three of his last four games, and the one game where he missed over that stretch, he only missed by one and
a half yards. So since the beginning of November, McKinnon has averaged five point seven targets a game, four point six catches a game, and forty four receiving yards a game. On Saturday Night, he is going to be facing the Raiders, who have given up a league high eight hundred and eighteen receiving yards to running backs. I think McKinnon clears thirty two and a half receiving yards pretty easily, Evan Ingram, the Jaguars tight end over forty five point five receiving
yards maybe my favorite bet of the week. Ingram has just been a monster over the last month, averaging six point eight receptions and eighty eight point three receiving yards over his last four games. One of those games was an eleven catch, one hundred and sixty two yard two touchdown outburst against the Tennessee Titans, whom he will face again on Saturday nights. Tennessee has given up one thousand, ninety two receiving yards to tight ends this season, the
most in the NFL. And finally, another tight end prop, Haydenhurst of the Bengal under thirty and a half receiving yards. Hurst has played seven games this season where Bengals wide receivers Jamar Chase and t Higgins have both been active, and in those seven games, Hurst has cleared this number thirty and a half only two times. He's failed to hit it in five of those games. And Hurst is going to be going up against a Ravens defense that has allowed the eighth fewest receiving yards to tight ends
this season. Yes, revenge game for Hayden Hurst going against the Baltimore Ravens who drafted him, but I think his old team keeps him in check this week and he finishes under thirty and a half receiving yards. So let's
recap this week's plays one last time. Josh Dobbs Titans quarterback under two hundred and four point five passing yards, Kenny Pickett of the Steelers under one hundred and ninety six point five passing yards, Isaiah Piccheko of the Chiefs over sixty one point five rushing yards, Travis Eta of the Jaguars under sixty one point five rushing yards, Derrick Henry of the Titans over eighty nine point five rushing yards, Jeric McKinnon of the Kansas City Chiefs over thirty two
point five receiving yards, Evan Ingram of the Jaguars over forty five point five receiving yards, and Hayden Hurst of the Bengals under thirty point five receiving yards. I wouldn't issh you all. Good luck with your bets in Week eighteen, the final week of the NFL regular season, and of course we will be back with you next week for the wild card round of the playoffs. I can't wait for the NFL playoffs. It's gonna be fun, and I hope you will stick with us here on Betting Pros.
We'll be back soon, friends. Good luck,