Hey everyone, I'm Pat Fitzmorris, managing editor of Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros, and I'm going to run through my favorite NFL player props. Coming off a four and two week for fifteen and five over the last three weeks, and on the season, we are fifty eight and thirty nine, just to shade under sixty percent. Going well so far, Let's see if we can keep the momentum rolling going
into Week fifteen. And by the way, Week fifteen means no more bye weeks, full sixteen game slates every week from now through the end of the regular season, which means more player props to choose from. So let's get into this week's selections, and we're going to start with Matt Ryan under two hundred and fifty four point five
passing yards. Since being reinstated as the Colts starting quarterback in Week ten, Ryan has failed to clear this number in four out of four games, and he has not come within twenty yards of it in those last four games. Ryan's averaging two hundred and sixteen point eight passing yards
over his last four starts. I am happy to bet against the thirty seven year old well passed prime Matt Ryan putting up big numbers in Minnesota this weekend, and look, the Coults are not going to abandon the running game.
I just don't see Ryan clearing a number this big.
So Matt Ryan under two hundred and fifty four point five passing yards, We're gonna go over with Josh Allen on one and a.
Half touchdown passes.
I am fading all Josh Allen skepticism, and I'm also fading concerns about the weather in Buffalo this weekend. Alan has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of thirteen games this season. But Alan's going to be facing the Miami defense that he torched for four hundred passing yards and two touchdowns back in Week three. And as of Thursday afternoon, DraftKings was offering a generous minus one oh five on the over for Josh Allen one point five passing touchdowns.
I think we might even get a better deal on game day after they show camera shots from Buffalo with the snow flying. People react to whether they overreact to weather, and I think that's what's going to happen here.
Look, it's not going to be a blizzard.
Yes, there's gonna be snow in Buffalo, but it's not gonna be anything that's going to affect passing conditions. And the win is wind is going to be ten to fifteen miles an hour, which is not an impactful wind whatsoever. So I think this number could drop because it fears about the weather, but those fears would be unfounded. So not only that, but this just in Josh Allen is good at football, and maybe this line reflects concerns about
the status of Alan's right elbow. But he revealed on the Pat McAfee show this week that doctors initially told him that he would miss two to four weeks. That was six weeks ago. See, so he is past the points, past the range that doctors were initially concerned about. So even if he had been shut down for a while, he would have been back by now. And if the injury is affecting Alan's accuracy or velocity, I have not
seen it while watching the Bills in recent weeks. So Josh Allen over one and a half touchdown passes Kareem Hunts under twenty four point five rushing yards. Hunt has failed to clear this number in five of his last eight games. He's averaged just six point one carries over that stretch. The Browns are up against a Ravens run defense that has faced the third fewest running back rushing attempts and has allowed the third fewest rushing yards to
running backs this year. In the Week seven game between the Browns and Ravens, Kareem Hunt had five carries for four yards.
So yes, I'm.
Hitting the under here on Kareem Hunts twenty four point five rushing yards. I am hitting the over on Miles Sanders sixty nine point five rushing yards. Sanders has topped this number in eight of thirteen games this season and is averaging eighty two point two rushing yards per contest. Sanders has run for more than one hundred and forty yards in two of his last three games. Since Week eleven, the Bears run defense has been twenty eighth in DVA.
Chicago gave up one hundred and twenty five rushing yards to Packers running backs when we last saw the Bears two weeks ago before they're Week fourteen. By the week before that, in Week twelve, they gave up one hundred and eleven rushing yards to Falcons running backs. Oh excuse me, that was Week eleven. In Week twelve, they gave up one hundred and fifty three yards to Jets running back.
So the Eagles offensive line is number one in the Fantasy Pros internal Power rankings and the Bears defensive front is number thirty two. This is an epic mismatch and I expect Miles Sanders to take full advantage. Bet the over on sixty nine point five rushing yards. I'll get to the rest of my picks in just a moment, but first, do you want to track all of your wagers in one place? You should check out the Betting
prospicktracker at bettingpros dot com slash pick hyphen tracking. It syncs up with their sports books to tally which picks hit and which one's miss, and it gives you a live look at what the public is doing, so you can use real time tracking to determine which plays to make and which to fade. Get on the leaderboard and quickly become a sharp by using the free advice we have to offer at Bettingpros dot com slash pick hyphen Tracking.
All right, continuing on with the player props. David Montgomery over seventy seven point five rushing plus receiving yards. The Bears number two running back Khalil Herbert has missed three games with a hip injury, and.
He'll be out again Sunday.
In the three games he has missed so far, Montgomery has averaged nineteen point three opportunities, which is to say Carrie's plus targets and one hundred point three yards from scrimmage per game. And the Bears have been the NFL's run heaviest team this season. You know, I think Monty could beat seventy seven and a half yards just with rushing alone, but we also get to include his receiving yardage.
And over his last three games, Montgomery has been targeted fourteen times and has ten catches for ninety four yards, So I think he clears seventy seven point five rushing plus receiving yards. Mike Gisiki under seventeen point five receiving yards. I generally do not like playing numbers this small, but in the case of Gasiki, I'm gonna do it. He has not caught a pass in any of his last three games. Over his last five games, Kasiki has five
catches for thirty four yards on nine targets. That's over five games. Averaging well under ten yards per game hasn't. Let's see Gasiki's snap shares the last two weeks twenty percent and thirty nine percent. He's not even getting under the field that much. And Kasiki is going to be facing a Buffalo Bills defense that has allowed the ninth fewest receiving yards to tight ends Mike Kisiki under seventeen
and a half receiving yards. I like Alamide Zakias Falcons wide receiver under thirty one point five receiving yard cards. Zakias has finished below this number in five of his last seven games, and through the first eleven weeks of the season, Zakayas did not see more than four targets
in any game. The Falcons have been extremely conservative on offense, having rum the ball on fifty six percent of their offensive snaps this year, and I think they're going to be run heavy this week with their rookie quarterback Desmond Ritter making his first NFL start. Ritter is probably a better runner than he is a passer, and I'm inclined to bet all passing and receiving unders for the Falcons
this week. So Alumdi Zakayas under thirty one point five receiving yards and finally, Justin Jefferson over ninety three point five receiving yards.
Jefferson has entered Cooper Cup territory for me. And last year with.
Cooper Cup, I was just betting the overs on him every week, no matter what the number was. I'm to that point with Jefferson, who now has exactly fifteen hundred receiving yards on the season and we still have four games to go. He's averaging one hundred and fifteen point four receiving yards per contest. He has cleared this number ninety three point five receiving yards in nine of thirteen games.
Jefferson is averaging ten point nine targets for the season and eleven point six targets over his last five games. He has twenty seven catches over his last three games, nine catches a game over his last three. Never Mind that the Vikings are facing a Colts defense that has allowed the fewest receiving yards to wide receivers this year, Jefferson is basically matchup proof at this point, I am hitting the over on ninety three point five receiving yards.
So just to recap all of this week's bets, Matt Ryan under two hundred and fifty four point five passing yards, Josh Allen over one point five touchdown passes, Kareem Hunts under twenty four point five rushing yards, Miles sand over sixty nine point five rushing yards, David Montgomery over seventy seven point five rushing plus receiving yards, Mikasiki under seventeen point five receiving yards, alamde z Achaius under thirty one point five rushing yards, and Justin Jefferson over ninety three
point five receiving yards. That's gonna do it for this week's Player Props video. Good luck to all of you this week with all your wagers, and we will see you again next week