The 8 Best Player Prop Bets for Week 11 (Ep. 245)

this video and that's it. We will be announcing winner right here on the channel, so make sure to turn on those notifications to be alerted to what new episode's are up and to know when to claim your prize. All right, here are my favorite player prop selections for week eleven. Let's start with Matt Ryan under two hundred and twenty eight point five passing yards, reclaiming his starting

role after two week benching. Last week, Ryan through for two hundred and twenty two yards, but that was against the lowly Las Vegas Raiders pass defense, which is number thirty two, dead last in the league. In DVOA, the Colts did take a conservative offensive approach in that game under interim head coach Chef Saturday, running the ball on fifty one point seven percent of their offensive plays. I think they're conservative again this week against the Eagles for

two reasons. One, the Eagles run defense has been slumping, and two, the Eagles pass defense is really fierce. They are allowing just two hundred point one passing yards per game, that's the third fewest in the league, and they have notched the fourth most sacks in the league twenty nine so far this year. So I think the Colts are

conservative again. Run the ball a lot with Jonathan Taylor, and you know, the Eagles are allowing just five point zero pass yards per pass attempt, so really good pass defense. I don't think Matt Ryan gets to two hundred and twenty eight yards. Mac Jones under two hundred and three point five passing yards. Yeah, like a couple of these unders in passing yardage. The Jets pass defense has been

a fearsome beast of lates. When we last saw Gangreen, they were limiting Josh Allen to two hundred and five passing yards in the jets twenty to seventeen upset of the Bills in Week nine. Then they went on buy. So they're coming in fresh against the Patriots and they did play the Patriots in Week eight, and in that game they held Mac Jones to twenty four thirty five passing for one hundred and ninety four yards. They've already held him under two hundred and three point five yards once.

I think they're going to do it again. The Jets are giving up just five point eight yards per pass attempts and have the league's second lowest opponent passer rating. Jones is averaging just one hundred and ninety passing yards in his six starts this year, so he would have to get well above his season average to beat this number, and I don't think he's going to do that against one of the league's very best pass defenses. So Mac Jones under two hundred and three and a half yards,

Lamar Jackson over sixty one and a half rushing yards. So, for some reason, bye weeks seem to put a pep in Lamar Jackson's step. He has had four career games where he was coming off a bye, and in those four career games, he has run for a total of three hundred and sixty five yards. Is rushing totals in those four games one hundred and nineteen sixty one sixty

five and one hundred and twenty. So Jackson has cleared this number in five of nine games this season, and he's averaging seventy point six rushing yards per game this year, So look for him to run wild this week against the lowly Carolina Panthers. All right, I will I'll have five more prop bets for you in just a moment, but first I need to tell you about the Betting Pros Pick Tracker. Want to track all your wagers in one place, check out the Betting Prospicktracker at bettingpros dot

com slash pick hyphen tracking. It syncs up with your sportsbook to tally which picks hit and which picks miss, and it gives you a live look at what the public is doing, so you can use real time tracking to determine which plays to make and which ones to fade. Get on the leaderboard and quickly become a sharp by using the Betting Pros Picktracker and everything we have to offer all the free advice at bettingpros dot com slash pick hyphen Tracking. All right, Next up, Antonio Gibson over

forty six and a half rushing yards. One of my favorite strategies for betting prop player props is to find a week defense and pick on it repeatedly, and that's what I'm doing with the Houston Texans run defense, which I have been picking on since last year. Houston had the worst run dye in the league in twenty twenty one, and it has gotten no better in twenty twenty two.

The Texans are giving up one hundred and fifty six point two rushing yards per game we opposing running backs and five point four yards per carry to opposing running backs. Gibson does share work with rookie Brian Robinson, but Gibson has played fifty two point four percent of Washington's offensive snaps over the last two weeks. He's had double digit

carries in both of those games. And if you give the explosive Gibson double digit carries against this Texans run defense, I am confident that he is going to run for more than forty six and a half rushing yards. So Gibson over forty six point five rushing yards. I also like David Montgomery over sixty one point five rushing yards. With Khalil Herbert going on injured reserve earlier this week, Montgomery is the UH he's the sole guy in the

backfield pretty much. He has that backfield to himself except for acasional relief from sixth round rookie Trestan Ebner. But even with Herbert around, Montgomery had had snaphares of sixty six percent or higher in seven of nine games this year, and now with Herbert out like Montgomery could see snap

shares in the eighty to eighty five percent range. Look for him to get at least fifteen carries this week against a so So Falcons run defense that's giving up ninety nine point eight rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. All right, Michael Pittman under sixty point five receiving yards and with Matt Ryan back at quarterback for the Colts last week, Pittman and nine targets against that bad Las Vegas Raiders pass defense and only had fifty

three yards on seven receptions. So Ryan's m a is just to throw to the open guy, no matter who it is. That's how he's rolled for years. And you know now Paris Campbell has been coming on strong for the Colts. So the open guy in any given situation and could be Pittman, it could be Paris Campbell it could be rookie Alex Pierce, Alec Pierce, it could be one of the Colts tight ends. I don't think we can count on eight plus carries for Pittman week after week,

and he is a brutal Week eleven matchup. He's going against the Eagles outside cornerback duo of Darius Slay and James Bradbury, which has been great all season except for last week when they lost to the Eagles or to the Washington Commanders their first loss of the year, and they gave up one hundred and twenty nine passing yards. It's terry McLaurin. So Slay and Bradbury have been terrific

all year. They were not terrific in Week ten, and I think they're going to be ticked off about that and come out fired up and shut down this Colts passing game. So Michael Pittman under sixteen and a half receiving yards. I also like Brandon Cooks under fifty four and a half receiving yards. In fact, this is probably

my favorite player prop of Week eleven. Cooks has cleared this number in only two of his last seven games, and Cooks hasn't had more than four catches in a game since October second, back when it was still warm out here in the Upper Midwest. So yeah, Cooks has also been disgruntled. He was unhappy the Texans declined to deal him before the NFL trading deadline, and he's been

dealing with hip and wrist injuries. So Cooks is going to be facing somewhat underrated Washington defense that just held the Eagles wide receiver AJ Brown to one catch for seven yards in that upset victory on Monday Night. So I think Cooks stays under fifty four and a half receiving yards and finally Greg Dolsich over thirty seven and a half receiving yards. The Broncos rookie tight end has cleared this number in three of the four games he's

played this season. Last week was his first miss Dulchic. Dulcicic only had one catch for eleven yards, but man, he played an eighty nine percent snap share last week and he ran routes on forty of Russell Wilson's forty two dropbacks. So those numbers show just how involved Dulsic is in this Denver offense. You know, but the surface stats didn't cooperate with just the one catch last week.

We're also probably going to see the Broncos without Jerry Judy this week due to an ankle injury, and I think that funnels a couple of extra targets in Dulcach's direction. I think he's going to clear thirty seven and a half yards pretty easily. All right, So let's recap the eight prop bets for this week. We've got Matt Ryan under two hundred and twenty eight point five passing yards. We've got Mac Jones under two hundred and three point

five passing yards. Lamar Jackson is going to go over sixty one point five rushing yards, Antonio Gibson over forty six point five rushing yards, David Montgomery over sixty one point five rushing yards, Michael Pittman under sixty point five receiving yards, Brandon Cooks under fifty four point five receiving yards, and Greg Dlsic over thirty seven point five receiving yards. All right, folks, that is going to do it for

me this week. I wish you the best of luck with your week eleven investments, and we will see you again next week. So long everyone,