Hello and happy holidays everyone. I'm Pat Fitzmorris, managing editor of Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros, and in just a minute, I'm going to run through my favorite Week sixteen player prop. We went seven to one last week. We are twenty two and seven over the past four weeks. That's what we call a heater. Boys and girls, We're now sixty five and forty on the season. That's a sixty one point nine percent winning percentage. I do not want to
blow my own horn, but enough of that, gambler. The god of wagering does not look kindly upon Braggadocio, so I'm just going to shut up and get to the Week sixteen picks. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon. So let's start with Aaron Rodgers under two hundred and fifty one point five passing yards on Christmas Day. Rogers is averaging just two hundred and twenty point nine passing yards per game this season, and he has cleared this number in only two games out of
fourteen this year. He's averaging six point eight yards per pass attempt. That is the second lowest mark in his fifteen years as the Packers starter. Yes, Rogers is facing a Miami defense that's giving up two hundred and eighty eight point four passing yards a game and a league
high eight point three yards per pass attempt. But even with the emergence of rookie wide receiver Christian Watson as a playmaker, the Green Bay passing game just simply does not have the quick strike capability it used to have before they traded Devonte Adams to the Raiders in the offseason. So I think this is going to be a leisurely paced game. With the Packers ranking thirtieth in offensive pace
and the Dolphins ranking seventeenth and fewer offensive plays. A slower pace means fewer offensive plays than usual, and that's a small but important edge for the people betting player props. So I would lean towards some of the unders in Packers Dolphins because of the pace of play. All Right, Andy Dalton under one hundred and fifty one point five
passing yards. This has very little to do with Andy Dalton being a backup caliber quarterback and very little to do with the rejuvenated Browns offense, which is actually second in DVA against the pass since Week eleven Browns defense was getting smoked earlier in the year, but they have really tightened things up. This is mostly about weather conditions in Cleveland on Saturday, which are going to be ugly to say the least. The temperature is going to hover
around thirteen degrees. They are expecting wins, sustained wins twenty five to thirty five miles an hour, gusting up to fifty miles an hour. Those are not great passing conditions. There's also a chance of snow, by the way, not great passing conditions. We're not going to see a lot of passing in Saints Brown's because of the fierce wins. In fact, I suspect that the Saints are going to run a lot of the wildcat with Taysom Hill operating
at quarterback and mostly running out of that. So I wouldn't be surprised if we saw like fewer than twenty, maybe even fewer than fifteen passing attempts for Andy Dalton. If this passing yardage prop were even twenty yards lower at one hundred and thirty one and a half, I would still bet the under on it, all right. Josh Allen over forty eight point five rushing yards and much like the under an eighty Dalton passing yardage, this is weather related. Bill's Bears is going to be played in
some inhospitable weather conditions in Chicago. The forecast eleven degrees with wins of twenty to thirty miles per hour. Passing conditions suboptimal, and I would expect Alan to do quite a bit of running. He runs quite a bit anyway. He has topped this number in four of his last seven games, and Alan ran for seventy seven yards last week in Buffalo in wintery conditions. Those conditions weren't even
as bad as these conditions are going to be. So Allen is also going to be up against a Chicago Bears defense that has faced the most rushing attempts by opposing quarterbacks this season eighty eight, and has given up the eighth most rushing yardage to quarterbacks three hundred and thirty one yards. So Josh Allen, I think goes soaring over forty eight point five rushing yards. Isaiah Picchecko over
sixty eight point five rushing yards. Pachecko has topped this number in five of his last six games, dating back to Week ten. Over that period, he has averaged fifteen point eight carries and eighty rushing yards a game. The Chiefs rookie running back is going to be facing a Seattle defense that has just been getting steamrolled in the
running game lately. The Seahawks have given up an average of two hundred and one point six rushing yards over their last five games, allowing no fewer than one hundred and sixty one rushing yards in any over that stretch. And yes, weather is probably going to be a factor here too. It's going to be frigid in Kansas City temperatures in the upper teams. I think the Chiefs might be a little bit run heavier than usual, which bodes
well for PA. Check out. All right, I'm going to get to the rest of my picks in just a moment, but first, do you want to track all of your wagers in one place. Check out the Betting prospicktracker at
bettingpros dot com slash pick hyphen tracking. It syns up with your sports books to tally which picks hit and which picks miss, and it gives you a live look at what the public is doing, so you can use real time tracking to determine which place to make and which to fade, get on the leaderboard and quickly become a sharp by using the free advice we have to offer at bettingpros dot com slash pick hyphen tracking. Okay, continuing on with more player props, Joe Mixon under sixty
point five rushing yards. Over the first five games of the season, Mixon averaged nineteen point two carries a game. He was used in bell Cow type fashion, but over the seven games that Mixon has played since, he's averaged just twelve point four carries a game. The Bengals are using veteran backup samaj p Ryan quite a bit lately. He's cutting into Mixon's workload, and Mixon has cleared this number in only two of his last six games. He's had fewer than twenty eight rushing yards in three of
his last five. Now, the Bengals face the Patriots, who have given up eighty one point two rushing yards per game to running backs. That's the seventh lowest total in the league. I think Joe Mixon finishes with under sixty point five rushing yards. Brian Robinson under forty three point five rushing yards. Robinson has actually averaged eighteen point four carries in eighty six point six rushing yards over his last five games. He's been trending up. So why do
I like the under here? Well, he's got a Week sixteen road game against the forty nine Ers that does not set up well for him at all. San Francisco's airtight run defense is giving up a league low fifty seven point four rushing yards per game and just three point three yards per carry to opposing running backs. The Commanders are seven point underdogs in this one, so they might not have a run friendly game script if in
fact they do fall behind in this one. Brian Robinson under forty three point five rushing yards, Tyler Algier under fifty six point five rushing yards. Algierier's yardage total for this one is certainly being inflated by his one hundred and thirty nine yard rushing day against the Saints last week. The rookie from BYU had run for fewer than fifty six yards in each of his previous four games before the outbreak against the Saints last week, and Algier shares
rushing duties with cord Erol Patterson. It's a split backfield and we're also going to see rookie quarterback Desmond Ritter do quite bit of running himself, but this is mainly about matchup. The Falcons are facing a vicious Raiders run
defense this weekend. Yes, the Browns did manage to run for one hundred and forty three yards against the Ravens last week, but prior to that, in Baltimore's previous six games, the Ravens held their opponents under one hundred rushing yards every game, and they held their opponents under fifty rushing yards in four of those six games. So the Ravens run dye is really tough. Tyler Algier finishes with under fifty six point five rushing yards. Now here's my favorite
player prop of the week. Travis Kelcey over seventy five point five yards. Yes, this seems like low hanging fruit. Kelsey is averaging eighty one point seven receiving yards per game this season. He has topped this number in eight of fourteen games, and his matchup well, chef's kiss. The
Seattle defense is giving up. Well, they just gave up ninety three receiving yards and two touchdowns to George Kittle in Week fourteen, and the Seahawks are giving up sixty one point two yards per game and fourteen point five yards per catch to tight ends. They just allow so many big plays by opposing tight ends. Expect the very best tight end in the game to cruise pass this insultingly low yardage prop seventy five point five receiving yards.
Travis Kelsey is going to go soaring over that George Kittle under forty four point five receiving yards. Yes, the aforementioned George Kittle. He racked up ninety three yards against Seattle last week, but he's not facing Seattle this week. He is facing Washington, and the Commanders are allowing a league low thirty point four receiving yards per game to tight ends, and they ranked third in DVA against tight ends. Kittle has cleared this number in only two of his
last seven games. And here's the thing. Commander's edge rusher Chase Young is making his twenty twenty two debut, coming back from a torn acl That gives the Commanders the fierce edge rushing duo of Chase Young and Montese Sweat. So I wouldn't be surprised if the forty nine Ers asked George Kittle to stay in and block a little
more than usual. He maybe runs fewer routes than he's been running, and that maybe leans helps push him towards the under here George Kittle under forty four point five rushing yards, and finally, Jalen Wattle over sixty three point five receiving yards. Wattle has topped this number sixty three and a half in ten of his fourteen games, and he's coming off a one hundred and fourteen yard outing
against the Bills last week. Wattle leads the league in yards per catch eighteen point zero yards per catch and eleven point one yards per target. He's been uber efficient this year, so he might not need that many targets
to clear this modest number against the Packers. All right, Just to recap this week's picks, Aaron Rodgers under two hundred and fifty one point five passing yards, Andy Dalton under one hundred and fifty one point five passing yards, Josh Allen over forty eight point five rushing yards, Isaiah Pacheco over sixty eight point five rushing yards, Joe Mixon under sixty point five rushing yards, Brian Robinson under forty three point five rushing yards, Tyler Algier under fifty six
point five rushing yards, Travis Kelcey over seventy five point five receiving yards, George Kittle under forty four point five receiving yards, and Jalen Waddle over sixty three point five receiving yards. Happy Holidays to all of you out there, from all of us at Betting Pros, hope you have a joyous and festive weekend and be careful on those snowy roads, my friends. We'll be back again next week with more player props. Merry Christmas to all, and to all of at night