Thanksgiving Best NFL Bets | Top Picks, Props, and Predictions (Ep. 603)

Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's down to place your bets. It's me Joey p joe Pisapia and this is the VP NFL Thanksgiving Special. That's right, Just like Randy Marsh, we've been working on a very special special for you for Thanksgiving. You're sitting around with your family, overeating, arguing about well, probably everything. The best thing you can do is just put together some bets, sit back, watch some games and make some money. And to help us

No, not really, I'm gonna take I'm gonna take the points here. Look, it's it's a Thursday game. It's a weird game. And I actually kind of like the way Chicago has been playing since making this change at OC And Yeah, I think we've seen Caleb Williams put together some decent drives here. He should have had a game winning drive against Washington and the hail Mary ruined that.

This one plus the play. They agree typically with you. The games can get weird, but look, Dan Campbell, I don't know, I feel comfortable with these points. Every time they get one of these slapp nut teams coming in, they're just way out of their I.

Just don't think Chicago's is not like Jacksonville. Okay, but I don't think Chicago's one of those teams Titans.

Well, neither of those teams are division opponents their division.

That's that that's the route you want to take, all right, americ I feel you're building a narrative. Go ahead, tell me why I'm not.

I'm not pickingside because it's a divisional matchup.

I'm not going I'm not going to fall into the traffic Commanders Cowboys from last week where it's some weird, wacky divisional games Steelers Browns on Thursday night.

I'm not doing this.

So I'm just taking the over because we're playing this game in Detroit, and this is where game, this is where point totals thrive and they fly above soar into the clouds. So looking at the average children the Lion's last twenty four home games, so this is going back season after season, the average has been nearly fifty five points. Seventy five percent of the games have scored at least fifty one points. So we're getting any spread or a total forty eight and a half points. We know the

And I haven't even sweat who wins. I just want points.

That's what I want on my plate at twelve thirty PM when I'm watching this game. I want points. So given how good the Bears offense has looked over the last two weeks, I think they can do at least something in this game to keep it pedal to the medal, keep Dan Campbell trying to score.

So I love the over in this game more than side.

Eric Erickson wants a second helping of points, not to tortadoes.

Can I get some more en points? That's what I want. You know, if you've parlayed those, if you parlay the Lions on the money line. I'm just looking at this. The Lions that cover the spread and the over on the points forty eight and a half, you actually get this a plus two to fifty, which is kind of fun, just saying, you know, if you just want to go for the clean sweep and you want to take the best of all of us here, you know, put them all to one thing and maybe we're all right in

If Drew Locke plays, it definitely could be a w because Tommy DeVito is now questionable to play in this game. He has soreness in his throwing arm because he was just.

Oh I hurt myself. I can't move anymore.

So I mean, I'm not gonna bet on Dallas here. So again, if you make me pick aside, I would take the Giants with the points. Going back to talking about divisional matchups, and if Drew Locke is a starter, luck the better quarterback than Tommy DeVito. Tommy DeVito is a thirsteon quarterback for a reason, So I think that

Zoom out right every day.

When you look back at Dallas traditionally what they've done at home, most of their games have gone over the total. You know what team never goes over the total? The New York Giants. This is a team that drags every single game through the mud. And you're going to see some regression here with Dallas's home games always going over the total. Well, their explosive offense is long gone. You look at the Giants, what's their biggest weakness in their past?

He does not.

He's not attack downfield whatsoever.

So this will be a low scoring game, whether it's lock, whether it's rush, And in a low scoring game, usually want to be on the side of the underdog.

So I'll take the Giants to the points. Ultimately.

Do you think that Dallas gets their first home victory of the year. But I don't think it's gonna be more than byfield goal.

You know, it's funny. I think the one element you're just missing out on This is against with a local flavor, which I'm gonna add here being a local in this New Jersey tri state area. The incredible negative comments right now coming out of all the Giants players, which is again a very telling thing of when they like Daniel Jones.

They didn't want to see it.

They seem to like Daniel Jones. They don't like the way this was handled by the coaches and the GM And when you lose a team, you sometimes then lose a lot of games, and it feels like that's what's starting to happen here. Bugs. You know, it doesn't It doesn't help that you lost. And then at night everybody went home and they all watched Saquon Barkley run for five thousand and seventy two yards against the Rams, Like that didn't help.

I mean, does Daniel Jones not have the opportunity to do the funniest thing ever and sign with the Philadelphia Eagles. It would just be so good. It would be so good. He'd be there with Saquwan, he's a good teammate, and it would piss off Kenny Pickett so much. I would love it. It would be my favorite thing in the world. But I'm with Erickson in this game. Let's just take the under. Drew Locke is a statue Tomy DeVito can't throw the ball down field. Cooper Rush isn't throwing the

What you can do, too, is if you tee, if you bring it down to Cowboys money line and then you bring up the total two forty five and a half, you combine those you get minus one oh five.

I like it.

Here you go. That was something I was looking.

I was like, Okay, like, I think again, I think the Cowboys are gonna win, and I get a forty five and a half point total to work with.

Take the under on that.

Okay, there you go, all right? Last one here is the evening game in Chili Chili, Green Bay, Wisconsin. Green Bay at night in November sounds like the perfect spin for the I mean Dolphins, right, sounds like the perfect spot for two a Teglailo, who has not played well in these cold weather games, whether it be Buffalo or

Your thoughts, yeah, I mean, I just I keep thinking of that meme of the Latin lady who moved to Michigan or whatever from ninety day Fiance who is like, I was not built for this weather. I cannot believe people live in this. This is disgusting. I think that's what the Dolphins are gonna be saying, going to Green Bay in a late November game here like they did against Kansas City in the playoffs last year. So I think I'd take Green Bay as well.

You know, I had never seen that show before my whole life.

And I've still never seen it. I've only seen these lives. Well, I have now.

This summer, we were flipping on the channels and my two teenage daughters like, stop a second, well, I want to see that, and we started watching it. It is the dumbest, most ridiculous program, and yet you can't look away.

It is I've only seen the guy with no neck, I've seen, and then.

We saw this one was like an older woman and she had so much plastic surgery. I don't think she could feel emotions anymore. It just or at least her face municate them. Yeah, or at least ericson. You still got a lot of emotions and you what are your feelings about this Green Bay Packer Miami Dolphin game.

I want to fade the Dolphins into oblivion. That's how I feel about this game. They don't win as underdogs.

They are last eleven games as an underdog, they are three and eight overall, five and nine against the spread. They don't beat good teams the last time to they so again against teams that have winning records. Last six games, they have failed to cover the spread in five of them. So this has always been the stick with Miami. Mike McDaniel,

I'll take the Packers laying the points. Again.

I was thinking about this, would you rather if you had to bet on one of these games, would rather lay the points of the Packers of the Cowboys?

Packers? Duh?

That seems really obvious to me. When you're comparing you're not going to bet on every single game. Take the Packers or the spread.

Essentially.

Oh, I am stick to the end for the Turkey Day parlay, which, by the way, last year we hit, so now we've set a precedent. We got to go to for two. Last year we hit the Turkey Day Parlay. It was a good one. I think I got one where you could watch each game and hopefully come away with some money. And it's a big number too, And I don't think it's absurd, I really don't. All Right, let's get to some of the props and break down

Yeah, so I really like rom Adonza in this matchup against the Detroit Lions. So the Lions this season have been one of the worst teams against defending the slot. And I know a lot of people look at, oh, well, Keenan Allen, he's the main slot receiver for the s Trago Bears, but Roma Dunsay actually plays a decent amount of the slot as well, and he's been over thirty nine receiving yards in seven straight games. Last week he

And then David Montgomery, he's been a touchdown machine. You have a different approach taking the first touchdown, which is a pretty big number. Plus four seventy. I mean, if that comes through Thanksgiving holiday, is already a good time.

Well, I mean, if you had to.

But he's the most likely to score at the first touchdout right, and I mean we know right, like you.

Know, you know it's it's gonna be it's gonna be the most obvious one or the one where you're like that guy's still in a roster in the NFL. I love that Jared Golfs this week too. I remember at the end of the game, to the guy who caught the touchdown, the Malik Heath, I.

Was like Malik Heath Pride in Mississippi State stop it any.

Week, So I like Monk, well, I don't want to, you know, for him to get any time touchdown. Dave Montgomery's like minus two twenty right, okay, so you know he's gonna score. So we know who's gonna score first, right, probably the Lions. So I'm just kind of like putting math together and like, yeah, I get that the odds are because that has to be the first touchdown, but Devevi Montgomery's playing his old team, Chicago Bears. You don't think that Dan Campbell knows that we'll get a good

He's played them, like he's been with the Lions for you know, he's.

Played and I'm sure that he scored touchdowns and all those other other games too.

Like it's like the Simpsons met Stop Stopping's dead.

Okay, but I think it's more like a fifty to fifty shot of it's gonna be either Gibbs or Montgomery. So if you're Dan Campbell A, you're gonna give it to Gibbs first, or just give it to Montgom Like, hey, let's get my money's touchdown, he gets his old team, and then we'll we'll be cooking.

So yeah, Dean Montgomery for me first touchdown and then when.

Brock Wright scores everybody, you could be miserable for the rest of the afternoon. Uh, let's go to your picks here. Let's start with kayleb Williams two twenty seven and a half passing yards. Are you going over or under that box?

Let's go with the end the old This team has been so much better without Shane Waltron at the helm. Qbs have hit this marker versus Detroit in seven of eleven games. The guys that didn't hit it a Rich mac Jones, Dak Murray, and Mayfield. Early in the season. Detroit is third and opposing team passing percentage because most teams are playing from behind trying to come back against Detroit, which as the favorite in this game. You know, the Lions look to be leading late and I think Caleb

And Bobs, you've also got another one here. You've got Jamison Williams two who forty six and a half is the number for him on the receiving yards Mince one thirteen. And since you are the man who always likes overs, I assume this is an over as well.

Yeah, I'm the overtaker here. Top ten in a nine undertaking. Yeah yeah, Now I'm the mayor of a city. Top ten in a dot minimum forty targets that Jamis and Williams top fifteen and yards per route run. Weird stat of the day, one hundred and forty five fewer yards than a manra on forty two fewer catches for Jamison Williams, he's obviously explosive. He's gone over this total on one

Let's go to Dallas again and find some props. This time, let's start with Rico Doubtle undertaker, take it away.

Yes, I'm going under on fourteen and a half receiving yards for Rico Daddles. So he's gone under this number in three straight games with Cooper Rush as quarterback. It's weird because you think, well, Cooper Rush is this check down savant like Cooper or Rico Dada should be eaten. And yeah, he's seen decent amount of targets, but because the average of the target is so low it's negative three yards, he's not actual receiving yards on these receptions

Now, that nice thing about Thanksgiving games is that you get those special bets out there too. There's always those like extra things that get thrown out there. And you found one that's kind of intriguing around the elite neighbor.

Yeah, I absolutely love this one. So my milaik neighbors to catch a pass on the first drive plus one hundred odds. I found this at Draft Kings sports Book. Look, I can all but guarantee he's gonna get a target on the first drive.

Then it's up to should be the first play in the game for them.

I mean, I feel pretty comfid he's gonna get the target. Now, will he catch that target if it is even in his radio catch a bowl that is, will it be catch a ball? And that's why it's called gambling because it'd be a lot if it was. It would be a stone called lock if it was a target.

But it's not.

We're betting on the leak neighbors catching one of these targets on the first drive, so plus one hundred.

See, this is how you get. This is how you watch this game.

Right, do you tune in for the first drive lak neighbors, Yes, got the catch, Turn it off, go do something else.

So that's what Ergun told. Plan is just to watch the beginning of every game. Dave Montgomery touchdown, good, first touch up, All right, I'm gonna go eat. First course, he comes back there. Second course, my lak neighbors catches the ball. All right, let's go and he keeps eating all day hopefully. All right, let's talk about who Boggs thinks is gonna eat. Let's start with your first bet. THEO Johnson's where you're going? All right, Yeah, let's talk about this.

I so I had originally put in here THEO Johnson under and then went to go find my reasons, and when I was looking, I'm like, I have to go over on this total. It's twenty five and a half yard. So it's pretty low. He is a little bit nicked up with this back injury, but I think he's going to play through it. He's passed his total in six

Then ceede Lamb a guy who obviously gets a lot of targets to your going with the receiving yards over sixty seven and a half at minus one ten.

Yeah, I mean he's gonna be locked up on the rookie Andrew Phillips. Right, Andrew Phillips is the slot guy. He plays most of his snaps out of the slot. We're gonna see a lot of seeding Lamb in this game. Six straight games with ten or more targets. He's fourth in YAK, So I know a lot of guys catch the ball and fall down. That's not CD and it's the last couple of thanks Giving Day performances have been

And when you're looking for props again, don't forget prop bet cheat sheet. It's out there to give you all the props for every game with the best lines and the best over unders there, so use it. Go to bettingpros Dot com slash props or getting download the app and just look for the prop bet cheat sheet. Let's do Miami and Green Bay last, but not least here, Let's start with john News Smith, who's become an intriguing

I sure didn't.

As someone that drafted Jalen Waddle aggressively in fantasy football, Johnas Smith has been a rude awakening for the fantasy football shares for Andre Erickson.

But last week was good.

The only thing was Johnny Smith still had more targets than Jaalen Waddle, despite Wattle having a breakout game a season high across the board, Johnah Smith was still the number one receiver on the Miami Dolphins.

Last week.

He had nine targets in the first half alone, with four red zone targets. He finished with eleven targets overall over the last month. He's the team's leader and target share and I absolutely love the matchup here for Johns Smith against the Green Bay Packers. I cited this when we're talking about George Kittle and his over last week, which hit he flew over his number and it got suppressed after brock Berry got ruled out. But these Green

I have to say the last prop you have feels like you are, you know, hal be a little too much cocktails, maybe during Thanksgiving, a little too much of the trip to fan Maybe you're kind of, you know, feeling weird because it has to do with Odell Beckham scoring a touchdown.

Yeah, for those those tuning, Oto Beckham is on the Dolphins, so we're all the same pages on the Packers. Hey, you know it's been it's been a while for Otobeckham Junior. But I actually wrote Oto Beckham Junior last week in my new article for any Time Touchdowns my favorite bets of the week because he's seen a red zone targets and I thought my process was sound because against the Patriots, Odo Beckham Junior had three targets, two of which came in the red zone. He had a target in the end zone.

I mean I saw him almost have one.

Yeah, I'm closed to scoring a touchdown. So I was like, hey, the process was right, maybe just a week too early. So now the odds have shifted even more. My favorite. Now it's plus eight to fifty instead of the plus seven hundred from last week. He's gonna get a red zone target and a plus a fifty give to me, Obj. He's gonna score in prime time under the light seat. See Odell Beckham doesn't score at one pm on Eastern Time.

Book end to the day to Montgomery plus four seventy first touchdown at the end of the night. Right was you're leaving the house of your grandparents house for Thanksgiving. There you go, boom b O'Dell Beckham good night everybody, and you walk out the door with the plus eight hundred bet there all right, bogs uh for you? You want to start to a tongue of Viailoa and the over on the one and a half passing touchdowns at plus money plus one.

There's a chance on kle Bogman was taking a little too many gummies last night when he put this one in here, But to over one and a half. I like the number. It's plus one twenty five, so you're getting plus on this. It's clear and cold, which is usually pretty good for passing. And I know it's against the Raiders and the Patriots, but he has had seven touchdowns in the last two passing touchdowns the last two weeks. JayR Alexander is still most likely down repairing this with

Okay, there you go, And last here Jalen Wattle speak of the devil. He shall up here. Longest reception nineteen and a half yards bogs. You're taking the over.

Yeah. Look, look Ericson is here. I do shows with Welsh. I have to get on this, yeah, Jay, then wattle train at some point it last week?

Did you ladder it last week?

It's not over.

That happened that he did something for all my fantasy team.

He only has this.

You know, you're only watching for one catch to go over nineteen and a half yards for him in this one, and he's gone over this in three straight weeks, and seven of eleven games this season is eight dot eleven point eight or higher than three of the last four games. The Packers have the fourth most mistackles this season, so there's a chance that he catches one and takes it

I already go with him. No, definitely, you have actually been very good with these all right, let's get to the Turkey Day parlay for Thanksgiving weeks three, and I'm gonna start with the covering that's right, covering the Giant minus ten and a half. Here. Look the Detroit Lions, or the class of the NFC, and every time they have a lesser opponent, they absolutely remind you why they're a lesser opponent. They continue to beat the crap out

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