It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros and is met Joey p joe Pisapia with me as always as Scott Bogman, and it's you and today it's all about the big game this Sundays, the super Bowl, the Rams, the Bengals. I'm gonna do the whole show in this voice. No I'm not, but it's it's going to be a great game. We've got some fresh blood in there, some great narratives. We're gonna break it all down for you today. We've had a week to think about it, and I like that.
I like to step away a little bit. We kind of talked on a little bit, gave our first impressions, but now we've had a full week to step back and analyze this game. And before Scott Bogman and I do break into all of that, I want to remind everybody we've got some amazing things going here at Betting Pros, including bet mgm offer, which is out there for new users ten dollars on any event and you can win one hundred and fifty dollars in free bets regardless of
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with the promo code Juice one fifty. Again, that promo code is Juice jui ce one fifty over at bet MGM and Scott Bagman. As we have now stepped back after a week, have you had a little time to kind of clear your thoughts and are your thoughts now assembled for the big game this Sunday thoughts assemble?
Yeah, they've come together. I'm ready to talk about the Super Bowl and it's gonna be a good one. Like you said, we got half new blood in there with the Bengals. It's been four years since the Rams were in the Super Bowl and they are back. Obviously, Matt Stafford has never been there. A couple of the guys never been there. Odell von Miller has experienced those Super Bowl MVP. So yeah, it's a little bit of a mixed bag as far as experience goes. But it's gonna
it should be a great game. I think it's going to be a tight one, which you know, can lead us one way or the other here, So I'm excited to talk about it.
Well, I put together a little tail of the tape here. So here we go Rams versus Bengals here. No, Michael Buffer intro, I'm not going to do that. Not gonna do that. Let's get ready to rumble. That's tight.
I mean, whe he sue you if you do it. I think it's a whole thing.
Right, Well, then I shouldn't have even just said it.
Then we're well, you can say let's get ready to rumble, but you can't say it. I can't say boys to start anything. I think I think that's might have a copyright on that.
Well, then we're gonna avoid that at all costs. Instead, let's look at the records between these two teams for the twenty twenty one season, and what we have is the Rams, who are twelve and five. The Bengals were ten and seven the offensive rank. The Rams were ranked ninth in the league in offense. The Bengal is actually thirteenth. Better than you might think, Boys and girls. The defense the fifteenth ranked Rams versus the seventeenth ranked Bengals also
very tight. This is the difference maker for me, and you kind of touched on it with von Miller a little bit, which is players with Super Bowl experience ten for the Rams won for the Bengals. So although the Rams were in the Super Bowl a few years ago, this is a very different turnouts team. Yeah, a ton of turnover, but some of the key pieces still there. Guys like Cooper Cup, guys like Aaron Donald, and of course you've got, as you're saying, players who have come
in with Super Bowl experience, like von Miller. It feels like, and especially from the Rams point of view, McVeigh said, you know, there was something where we really didn't have that experience, and we thought it wasn't gonna be a big deal, and then it turned out to be how much weight in stock do you put in that from the get go.
I put a little into that, and I think it's more to me, it's less about the players. I think every single time they go to the Super Bowl, unless you're Tom Brady and the Patriots, you know, you know, because you have to deal with media day and you know, all just so many people want a piece of anyone who is involved in the Super Bowl at all, Right, so you're getting pulled in a bunch of different directions.
Every single one of your family members wants tickets. Like you know, we've heard all these same stories over and over from the players. I think it's more for the coaching staff because these are the guys that have to get you organized. So I think if they've gone through before, like McVeigh has, it's better for them. I mean, Taylor's been, you know, an assistant to the Super Bowl too, so he knows, you know. I think he was on that staff when they went four years ago for Sean McVay, right,
So these guys know how to do it. They have a little experience in making the schedule, dealing with it all that stuff. So you know, it's just getting through that and then getting into the game and not letting that stuff play into the game. The game is still the game, right, regardless of the people in the stadium, everybody else there, The game is still the game, so
way more on the line. Everybody's going to be a little bit nervous to start, of course, but I think once they go out there and start hitting like normal, that stuff kind of shies way and they go back to playing football.
Well to that point too. Sean McVay and obviously Taylor on the same staff there a few years in that Super Bowl. So what do you make of that, The familiarity between these two coaches knowing each other, working together, one being hired by the other. And sometimes that can be overrated. But sometimes we've seen that, I mean, whether it be Mike Rabol at times kind of sticking it to his mentor Bill Belichick in the playoffs a couple of years ago. We've seen this happened a few different times.
While sometimes the student becomes the teacher.
Remember the biggest one was when you know, John Gruden left Oakland Raiders then went to Tampa Bay.
Right, and the Raiders didn't play that. It didn't change the playbook, That's the unbelievable thing. Didn't change the playbook or the signal calls. And they basically remember when.
It was happening, like the you know, the NFL film stuff at halftime in John Lynch going, I've never had practice matter more than this week because Gruden was like impersonating rich Gannon and all that stuff. You're not gonna get down to that, right, I mean, you had different quarterback when Taylor was with the Rams still anyway, so
you're not gonna get down to that level. And there's no way McVeigh doesn't change up enough to where the defense is gonna you know, you're not gonna be calling out plays and stuff like that.
I think mcvay's too smart for that.
So there's a little bit of familiarity, but I don't think you know, I don't think.
It lends one way or the other in this game.
So it's kind of like trends, Like like I like trends, but sometimes trends can get a little overblown, especially Super Bowl trends. People want to look into it and they're like, well, look the last ten years. What does a Super Bowl ten years ago have to do with this game?
Nothing to do with biggest waste of space, content filler nonsense. When people look back, it's huge. I'm sorry, it just is. At the end of the day, you have to analyze this game. These players, right, what you've seen recently, what you think they're capable of in this scenario.
And I think trends are more I think they're better with the mindset coming in right, Like if you've lost ten games in a row to Cincinnati in.
Season in season, Yes, like the trend of San Francisco continuously beating up on the rams. And then we talked about that trend a couple of weeks ago. It was like, certain trends are unsustainable. You're not gonna be a team seven, eight, nine, ten times. It's just not gonna happen.
But that's why you gonna pay attention to those trends that much. You're right, is exactly like that something happens, Like you know, you lost six in a row to the Niners and then beat them in the NFC Championship. You know it is a tight game, probably should have lost, Targe, should pick that.
Ball off, but you know it's not the way it goos.
So that's why I don't, you know, really get granular with those trends, especially you know, the longer they are, the longer they are, the less they mean.
I think I think application of the trends is more important.
If I may it's you know, when I while on this very show, Dan and I were talking about that game, and that was my lock of the week with San Francisco, you know, weeks and weeks back in the season, the second time around, beating the Rams again, because I had seen where the Rams were at, how they were playing, how the Ford Nites were playing, and then you and I were doing this show a couple weeks ago, and I said, the Rams are gonna find a way to
win this football game after beating tom Brady the way they did. There's too much momentum there, There's too much belief. This is the exercising of the demons. If you can exercise the Tom Brady demon and then turn around the next week and finally have a chance to beat this team that has pounded you six times in a row, you're gonna take the most out of that, and you're gonna take that opportunity and you're gonna take it for all it's worth. And they did, to their credit, which
brings us now to the game. And if you go over to bettingpros dot com and you look at the NFL matchups, of course we've got that match up there. There's only one NFL matchup left, it's gonna give you the consensus of where everyone is in terms of where the money's being put, what the percentage is, which is really useful, so you can get an idea of what the board looks so like and how other people see
the board in the consensus and the betting world. And right now we are still with the same exact number that we were last week, four and a half right now, so the consensus line is still four and a half four. Of course, the Los Angeles Rams, who are also a home team playing at home. Bogs and I discussed this last week. We don't put too much stock in this either, because it's a home game for the Rams, which is not a huge fan base. They're a team that just
moved recently. Los Angeles is not a great pro football town. It's where the NFL offices are located. And on top of which there's gonna be a lot of elitist people there more than usual because it's La. You know, not everybody wants to get a play and fly to Indianapolis in February, but you want to go to La. Yeah, I want to go to LA and hang out and see movie stars. Oh, there's Leo DiCaprio. Oh look, there's you know, Chris Evans is like, yeah, okay, that's cool.
You know Indianapolis, No, no offense Indianapolis. I mean even New Orleans. It's a fun down, eat, drink, be merry. There's different locations. Nobody wants to go in New York in February, that's for damn sure. But I think even though it's a home game, it's we're just familiarity with the turf and sleeping in your own bed at the end of the day.
Yeah, that's it, right, Yeah, getting your same locker room, your same security people, the same parking lot, you get to sleep in your bed. Like you said that all, you know, lends a little bit towards the rams.
Of course, that's stress of travel. I mean the travel is a big stress. And you mentioned before the family asking for tickets, all these things going on. That's a big deal.
But the travel together can can be nice too because it brings your teammates, you know, it brings you closer as teammates. And that's two weeks of that stuff too, of kind of you know, going through it and bonding, not like they haven't had it.
The whole season, but.
It's just different when all this pressure is on those guys together. So yeah, I'm I mean, so I we obviously saw Tampa Bay win, and I'm sure everyone saw the dumb meme of you know, the we're gonna host it in Dullas every year moving forward so no team ever gets a home game, you know, all that crap. So yeah, I mean it means a little bit, but it will ultimately not be the deciding factor in the super Bowl in my opinion.
All right, I want to talk to you now because this is it, Bogs. We've had the time for everything to sink in, and as.
We passed the Pro Ball, everyone to it all.
Yeah, definitely not just watching the Senior Ball and Shrine Ball this week everyone. I mean, I didn't see one second of the Pro Ball. I mean, it's the most worthless things neither.
But the tweet of the week is definitely Kyle Pitts, who said it's nice to score a touchdown in America. This is my first professional touchdown in America. I thought that was a tweet of the week, man. I love that. That was so funny.
Man.
But look, you know, there's obviously lots of opportunities here. This is the Super Bowl. And for those people who don't even necessarily, you know, go crazy on the wagering side, but they want to try a little bit, this is a great opportunity because if you go to bettingpros dot com slash offers right now, we've got a ton of different varieties from all these different wagering houses. Everything is
twenty dollars or less. You can put ten dollars on this team, twenty dollars here, five dollars investment and just have a little fun and get a little actions. You have a little ex ext on the game. And that is for you at bettingpros dot com slash Offers again, that's bettingpros dot com slash offers. You can go there and there's a ton to choose from. So find the one that works in your state, find the one that works for you, whatever kind of investment you want to make.
Because I'm like, you know, I say this even last week. You know, we talked about two weeks ago, the best bet on the board I thought was, hey, pluck down eleven dollars and seventy cents and you're gonna win one hundred eleven dollars if the Bengals win the Super Bowl a plus eight fifty And guess what that went from a one and four chance to a coin flip right now for y'all. So that's yeah.
I've gotten so many bragging texts from Doe about his Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl pick. I got like, I didn't respond to the first one, so then I got another.
One a little bit later, and I'm like, oh, I'm gonna I.
Said, this is the best bet on the board. And here's the thing. Even though it's the best bet on the board, I don't think it's going to come true. So that spoiler alert, I hope boilers.
Yeah, I want it to I hope it doesn't.
But here's here's where I've come to after this week of looking through this, and we're gonna start here with the money line here, which is right now minus two hundred for the Los Angeles Rams, plus one sixty five for Cincinnati. I truly believe at this point in time, as I've had more time to really step back look at this game. Let all the heat from the championship games dissipate. You win football games upfront. The biggest deficits of the Cincinnati Bengals also happen to be the biggest
strengths of the Rams. The pass rush upfront, the bad offensive line, and of course the cornerback play of Eli Apple. And the best wide receiver on the planet right now is Cooper Cup. I mean, you can argue it's DeVante Adams, but you all see where I'm coming. Jamar Chase in that mix too, but Cooper Cup has been unbelievable. Those two things bring me to this conclusion, which I believe
the Rams are going to win this football game. So on the money line right now, I'm taking the Rams, So Boggs, That's where I've landed after all of this. This is where I've come down. I hope that a couple plays bounce the other way and I win some money, but I just think it the end of the day that pass rushes too much for that offensive line. We saw what happened in Tennessee, and the Tennessee offense is not the Rams offense. The Rams offense can put some
points on the board. So that's where I'm at right now. Where do you land on the money line?
This is such a hard game to pick. I feel like it's a good one, you know, because like you said, I think the biggest mismatch of this game is that Bengals offensive line versus the Rams defensive line.
I think that is the biggest one you'll see.
But I also think that the way Matt Stafford has not been protecting the ball guy led the league in interceptions right versus the secondary that has been making plays for Cincinnati.
I think that's a big mismatch too.
Just personally, I mean, just a woozy A has been playing great baits and Von Bell and even Eli Apple had a decent game last week, although he is you know, going to get torched.
He didn't have a decent game.
He made a big play, now, I guess I should I should rephrase that he may. He may a big play that tackle right before the half, of course being the big play that he made. But you know, and you have to give Cincinnati the edge as far as the kickers go, if this comes down to a kicking game, matt'stat. Matt Gay has been playing a little bit nicked up with this coin injury. You know, had some shaky kicks, missed a kick, and Evan McPherson is just you know,
he is so fun, incredible. Unless he's Scott Norwood's this, Uh, you know, I think he's.
I don't think he's got that in him. I don't think he's got that gear. He doesn't know failure. This kid, he's amazing, He's so much right.
I mean, look, it could be a fifty eight yard er to tight it or something, and he misses that.
No one's gonna blame him for that, you know.
But I mean if he misses anything shorter than fifty in this game, you know, especially if it's a clutch situation, that's it's a bad spot to live in as a kicker for the rest of your career. So you know, you can have all those big AFC Championships, divisional matchup moments, but if you choke in the super Bowl, nobody's gonna care what you do. So you know that that's something that I'm sure he's thinking about. But I think you give Cincinnati, you know that you give them that they
have the better special teams units. So I just don't think that Cincinnati's gonna be able to overcome this offensive line, this defensive line from the Rams. And I think that is why I'm going to take the Rams in this game and lay the four points like you said.
I okay, now you're gonna lay Now. That was my next thing was, I'm taking them to win outright, You're taking them with the points as well.
I'm gonna lay the points too.
Yeah, okay, I'm gonna go on the other side. I think, like most Super Bowls typically speaking, everybody comes out a little flat in that first quarter, and to me, that affects this game into two ways. Number One, it affects the four and a half, which I'm gonna take the Bengals side of that because I do think that they can get this close, especially because if the Rams have to settle for a three here and there, they have
that McPherson guy who can keep it very close. At the end of the day, I'm looking at probably more like a twenty four to twenty game. I think that is a very reasonable final score, you know, somewhere in that range right where. I think we're in that range potentially. So at the end of the day, that hook means everything. So I think the Cincinnati side of this one is where I want to be. And then the over under the forty eight and a half. Again, I also kind of like the under in this game.
And just just to get you where the percentages, by the way, just real quick. You can also you can get the hook in some spot still, but I know like DK has moved to four, so.
Which is different. It's the hook that to me is the most important, and where I can get the half is where I want the Bengals, obviously, But to me, when you're looking at where the money's gone on the money line, you've got fifty nine percent of the money
surprisingly is actually on the Bengals. Fifty seven percent is on the Bengals against the spread there plus four and a half, and then the over under is actually on the over at forty eight and a half, which is pretty interesting because I I feel like the only thing that I agree with there is the Bengals in the four and a half. I think this game falls underneath that forty eight and a half may too because it's one of because I think the defenses don't get enough credit.
You're saying the Cincinnati defense, and you're right, Cincinnati defense. Look what they did in that second half to Mahomes This year right comes to and that's all second half adjustments.
So even if the Rams look good in the first half. They adjusted so well on Kansas City. Also, Mahomes missed some bad passes, so it's colling a and call them BA, but they did the right things that got themselves in the right position to make it work. So and look, Trey Hendrickson has been an unbelievable add to the Cincinnati defense. Sam Hubbard is having his best year. Logan Wilson starting at middle linebacker has made a big change for this defense.
And you know, the big free agent signings of a woozy e too. I mean, you know, this defense is solid. It's very very good in Cincinnati, so it's very underrated, which I'm with you, Joe. I'm on the under because I do think those are the two big mismatches are both on the other team's defense against the other team's offense. I think those are the big biggest mismatches of this game.
Yeah, it's and it's interesting. So right now, like I said, in terms of the percentages, Bogman, you are with the Rams and I'm with the Rams. We are both in the minority there. And I understand why you're only getting minus two hundred. It's not a you know, on the money line. Nobody wants to make that bet. That's that's a given, right, most people are on Cincinnati. I'm actually on Cincinnati on the four and a half. You are on the other side of this one, correct, with the Rams, So.
Yeah, on that I like.
I would much rather take the four than the four and a half, like you mentioned before.
So that's why if you like the Rams, you take the four. If you like the the Bengals, you go.
Yeah, half exactly exactly so, but it might slide back towards four, so you know, especially with all this money coming in on Cincinnati. So if you do like the Rams, wait and see if you can get that hook taken off. Get the four inte of the four and a half.
All right, and the last one here, You and I are both on the under of this game, which puts us in the minority. Just forty two percent here of experts are there. And then you got forty eight and a half again as that number, and that's fifty eight percent of people are on the over on this game, which, look, I'm all for it. It would be a fun thing to watch. I'd much rather watch more points, but I'm realistic. Typically everybody's nervous, everybody's flat. You even't played in two weeks.
It feels always like that.
First remember the Rams last Super Bowl too, thirteen to three. There was sixteen points total scored in that Game's.
Gonna be yes Todd, who wasn't himself. He had Jared Goff, you had Bill Belichick with a game plan to stop running.
I mean, that's what they held.
But what I'm saying is that defense held Brady too, who was not right at all. So you know, that's just something it's just something to think of. Like I said, we don't like trends, we don't like history that kind of stuff. These are two different teams, but also, you know, everybody wants to see that high scoring super Bowl just doesn't work out all the way.
Phytic typically it doesn't, especially with that are think pretty evenly matched, and as we went through the tail of the tape at the beginning of the show, pretty similar seasons Like these are two teams that are kind of right there. They're kind of middle of the pack defensively, but they both have played better of late, which is of course why they're in the super Bowl. Two teams offensively can put points up, have great wide receiver play,
big playability, the run, game there is. It's come back to life for the Rams a little bit. It's pretty good for you know, with Joe Mixon. Obviously for the Cincinnati Bengals. Most people would love to have Joe Mixon as their running back, that's for sure. And you've got quarterback play here. And I think it's just comes down to, you know, the Matthew Stafford narrative and the Joe Burrow narrative. Joe Burrow narrative is fun and it's sexy, and it's what everybody and I'm I'm all in on it. I
love Joe b But experience, I think does matter. And I think Matthew Stafford has waited his whole life to get to this moment for this game. And I have a hard time thinking he's gonna be denied at the end of the day. And if he isn't and I win money, I'm gonna sit here on the show next week. It'll be very happy.
You're gonna have Alcohl cigar in Oh, I'm you gotta get that drip man, you gotta get that big neck lists in that fur coat. I will absolutely County Junior sunglasses.
Yeah, I will do. I will have the sunglasses. I will have the drip and I will have the cigar if Joe Burrow wins on this show. And this is why you subscribe to Betting Pros over on YouTube so you can watch me do stupid things like that. I one hundred percent will do that. And now I really want the Bengals to win because I love playing dress up. It's a great time. By the way, if you want some extra fun again, we're trying to give you all
the fun here. We possibly can make sure you go to betting pros dot com slash squares because I know everybody loves to do the Super Bowl squares there with their family and their friends, their co workers. It's so easy. You go to Bettingpros dot com slash squares and what you could do is you could set it up, send a link to everybody. Everybody gets their square, and then it updates every quarter. Everybody could check on their phone.
So obviously you know people aren't all together for the Super Bowl, but you can see where you're at and it gives you all the live updates and it's free. So head over to Bettingpros dot com slash squares for that offer. We got another offer too we talked about before, which is bettingpros dot com. On the other side there for offers, So bettingpros dot com slash offers twenty dollars
or less. You go in there, you find the offer you like, you go ahead, you put some money on the game, and you have some fun to enjoy yourself. And of course don't forget about our big one too, which is bet mgm. With the promo code juice one fifty. Head over to bet mgm and new users a ten dollars bet on any event, they'll win one hundred and fifty dollars on that outcome. So why not the Super Bowl? Why not today? With that promo code Juice one fifty.
Go sign up for bet mgm today, and don't forget everybody to subscribe to our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros, because on Sunday morning of the Super Bowl eleven am Eastern, we start our live stream for all of your up to the minute betting and all of your wagering advice. Again, that live stream is happening eleven am Eastern right here on Betting Pros on our YouTube channel. Bogman. This has been a great time. I
look forward to watching the game. I'm sure we'll be texting during it, you and I and the Bengals win, and that plus eight P fifty the cigar will be ready to go. Oh, it's gonna be so fun, baby, let's go. That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for Scott Bogman, I'm Joey p Well see its time, kids,