Super Bowl Best Bets | Top NFL Picks and Predictions (Ep. 667)

to the goes thing for notifications. And in the meantime, the Boys and I, Torell Ferman, Junr, the Undertaker himself Andrew Ricks are gonna talk about the best bets for the big Game. And of course we'll be live before the game too. Earlier on Sunday we got on the live stream. Going on today, Erics and I are going to hammer out there. Look, the best way to do all this betting is with the Betting Pros apps. So if you haven't already, download that bad boy sink your

sportsbooks for free, start betting smarter, not harder. Use the tools because you can basically bet on anything, and I mean anything. Yesterday, Matt Parralt and I did a live stream and Terrell he brought up a good point, why don't we bet on I understand why you can bet on everything in the Super Bowl because there's two weeks for the books to prepare and there's nothing else for anybody to do, and there's so much attention on it.

But the coin toss is the coin toss. Why can't we bet on the coin toss of every game?

forty eight and a half forty nine. That's kind of the Ranger getting Chiefs on the money line minus one fourteen as of right now on the recording this on Wednesday afternoon, and plus one oh two over on the money line for the Eagles. So Terrell Furman Junr. Where shall we begin our odyesty of Super Bowl betting? Oh?

the run game. Saquon Barkley is going to be a force, and you can only hope to contain him as best

as you can. But when Jalen Hurts gets into those passing downs and those passing situations and you're able to create those opportunities, you gotta take advantage of it, because as of late, he has not looked as proficient as a passer as we've seen when he was in the Super Bowl the last time around, So very easy for me taking the Kansas City Chiefs here is Rensen, repeat, is nothing to doubt here, Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, they get another one.

at seven to one to win the Super Bowl. So I'm just going to sit on that for now, and maybe especially if they are down by three or dare I say six at halftime, I'd probably go back to that well once again, because I'm sure I'm gonna get a nice nifty number there. Andrew Erickson, where shall we begin your wagering journey for Super Bowl this weekend.

I knew when push came to shove if these teams were to meet, I know what thought I was going to be on Elsie before we even saw the season play out. So I think that the trends obviously back up Kansas City in terms of they've won eighteen the last games as favorites, Homes seventeen to three in the postseason, He's only lost against Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. They've won nine straight postseason games. Holmes is eight to zero against Vic Fangio led defenses. So I just don't I

get the Eagles are the superior team. But I feel like I was talking about this last time they played in the Super Bowl. I was like, Oh, well, the Eagles have a better team overall, but the other team is Mahomes. And as I'm consumed more media this week, I'm starting to, oh, no, well if I'm wrong, what if we get a Champa Bay Buccaneers chief situation where I mean, the Eagles defensive line is really good and they overwhelm the Chiefs offensive line. I just I don't

it doesn't matter to me. I just can't bet against Patrick Mahomes, and he is really the reason why. That's where I'm going to settle, and I don't really see a reason to get away from it.

I go back to that stat that I don't know if I talked about this with try I know Andrew and I talked about it, where all the rematches that you've had in the Super Bowl, they have all gone to the first winner the second time. And I think that's a very interesting statistic because I think sometimes when you lose to somebody, that losing kind of gets programmed into your brain. And I understand that.

other stuff going on. So let's talk about some more bets that you like. Let's go to you t give me a bet number two for the Super Bowl? What do you have?

good play. I call it a quarterback sneak. They've been talking about it all week because we everybody knows what's coming. It's one of the more unstoppable plays in sports because you sit there and you know you don't practice it. They don't practice it. Nobody really practices it, and there's no way that you stop it. And you saw Frankie Louvu over there with a million penalties trying to find a way to fop it. Yeah, it was amazing, And

I don't know why. I wish they would have just gifted the score because I would have loved to see how did that play out. Who got the score? Was it gonna just be like, oh, yeah, we're just gonna give the Jalen Hurts because he was gonna get it? Did you know that?

is one hundred percent getting in. This is the reason why Seque Barkley was an MVP because he vultured a bunch of those touchdowns like this is happening.

time buying anybody but Patrick Mahomes on that one. I mean, I know you're getting cute here a little bit, but are you really at the end of the day, I

don't think so. But on the other side, if you are in on the Eagles and you're looking for a better number instead of just if you've got one bet to make, I would just be betting Saquon for MVP, because I think it has to be a transcendent Saquon game for it to be an Eagles victory, in which case they will build a statue of him next to Rocky and people will run up there and take their picture, and there will be people in South Philadelphia naming their

kids Saquan or renaming them. They might just rename them.

sticking it to the Giants on top of it. And there's nothing the Go Birds crowd likes more than to stick it to the Giants as they're winning. Like that is double your money right there. All right? Speaking of two's ericson, give me bet number two for the Super Bowl.

another trend that I'm looking at. You look at. I can mentioned the Fangio matchups with Casey and Patrick Mahomes eight matchups over the last five seasons, two and six towards the over in those games, so those games have been generally more low scoring and looking at the Eagles, nine of the eagles last thirteen road games have gone under the total. Eight of the eagles last twelve games

have gone under the total. The Eagles are sixteen to twenty one towards the over since the start of last year, seven to twelve towards the over. On the road. Eagles have allowed just twenty three points three times this season. The Chiefs have allowed more than twenty seven points four times since the start of twenty twenty three, and twice it was against Buffalo. So again, how is this game we to get to fifty points if neither of these

teams give up twenty seven or twenty three. Again, had to double check my math, but that's fifty points combined. So if they're both giving up less than they usually do in terms of twenty three points twenty seven points, to me, this looks more like a game that's going to be in the load to mid twenties from each side and not hey, low thirties high twenties from each side, So that's what I like. I like the under. Again, I am the undertaker, so maybe this is very status

quo for me. But even in games where the Eagles have the lines closed high at forty nine points, so they've had four games where the line is closed near forty nine points or higher, Eagles are one and three towards the over and the Chiefs have only been in two games that I've been closed at a forty eight point total or higher, so they're in. They're one and one in those games. So we don't really see these

two teams playing high scoring environments for the most part. Again, it's been a little bit different over the playoffs, but I think that this game's gonna disappoint a little bit in terms of total points. So I like the under at forty nine points.

to take the survey, but I can't. However, we will be back for Elimination Chamber and Wrestle Maine as well. We got it all in Lockdown. But whatever it is that you like or maybe you don't like, share your thoughts bettingpros dot com slash survey all it takes just a minute or maybe two with the most and if a bettingpros dot com slash survey today, make your voice heard shape the future of the show. Next up here is Terrell again number three on the Super Bowl Best bets list. What is it?

afraid to take off with it. That's actually one of the qualities that makes him so good is because he knows when to run, when to throw, and when to go get positive yards and so that happens. And then, of course, I mean, Joe, the Neil downs at the end always gonna help us out. Neil downs at the end, always gonna help us out there. So definitely love the over. I think the five and a half it's a little juice minus one twenty five, but I'm still laying it.

where the chiefs are at. If you don't have a lot of quick options where guys can't get open and create space, and you've got pressure up the middle coming at you, home's gonna get flushed from that pocket. He's gonna have to take off and run and take the ball in his hands. And he saw he is never against doing that. He's got what almost two hundred rushing yards and his Super Bowl appearances already. So I mean, I am all in on this one. I like the

yardage more than the attempts, but that's me. I'm a yardage guy.

look at the Chiefs. This is their fifth Super Bowl. All but one of their Super Bowls that they've played with Mahomes sow at least ten points scored in the first quarter. The Eagles, after starting out the season very slow in the first half a first quarter of games,

has been on a hot streak. They've hit the first quarter over going over ten points or more six straight games, excluding Week eighteen when they were playing their backups k C. First quarter last four games three and one towards the over at ten points, and the only time it went under they scored nine points. So they have averaged seven and a half points in the first quarter against vic Fangio defenses. That's the last eight matchups. So yes, I like the game total to go under. But I don't

think that these teams come out sluggish. I know sometimes we see that, I know traditionally and all the Patriots, it seemed like every single Patriots Super Bowl they never scored at all in the first quarter, and that kind of oh well teams just I think that embedded in our brains, that oh well, teams just start out slow in the Super Bowl. It's like, no, like that was

the Patriots, like they started out slow. I don't think the Chiefs and Eagles will be that they know what the other offenses can do on the opposing sides of the ball. I think they come out aggressive and I think that we get to ten points in the first quarter. So I'm going to take the over.

a play, anything like that. You look at the Eagles side ball in particular, they've only had one touchback in the first attempt by either team in the entire playoffs, and that was Jake Elliott kicking a touch back against the Commanders and then every single other time the Eagles have brought it out or Jake Elliott has put the ball in a position where the other team has to bring it out. Other than that, go to the Chiefs

side of ball. Herrison Buckner has kicked some touchbacks in the playoffs, but the Chiefs have been also willing to take the ball out of the end zone. Like there's been multiple teams that said, hey, we're gonna either try to go hit the ball and pin him deep or we're gonna try to go and uh make a play. And so I'm I'm kind of sold here on the touchback. I think it's just a miss price. I'm not probably going as heavy on this as I am Cheap's money line, but I think it's a fun little play then, and

it also gets the blood flowing. Like right after our Heads and Tails match up, Ericson, baby get to sweat they get to sweat out the first kickoff, be it a touchback, Like, come on, it's the super Bowl. You're supposed to have fun. Betting is supposed to be fun. So yeah, I'm gonna sweat Heads and Tails with Ericson. Now I didn't have a bet on it. But now that Errison said tails, I'm gonna go heads and then I'm gonna go and immediately sweat the opening touchback. And

I don't think it's gonna be a touchback. I think that it's gonna be kicked short, probably something along the goal line, and the team is just gonna bring it out.

give Justin Tucker a shoutout in this episode. But I think that kicking plays a part in all aspects, especially in the in the touchback prop, because I remember it was a point in time a few years ago where Pat McAfee winning show, Remember his show was just getting off the ground and he was gaining some traction, and he was talking about the Super Bowl and he said, man, they bring in a new football, like a brand new football,

right out the packaging and all of that. He's like, the thing's tough to kick, like very on, Like you don't get to break that one in all the ones you're practicing with. Those are the practice balls. First one, Yeah, they said that first one you kick it, and then somebody goes and get that football and takes it to the Hall of Fame and he's like, it's kind of hard to kick that one out the end zone. And then after that, like the next three years, there's a

touchback in the opening kickoff after that. But I think there's something to that as well. So I think is kind of that aspect to it, and then the fact that they just will see if they trust Jake Elliott. I got one more play and I will touch on that a little bit more at the end.

clear effort to get him the ball. Especially early on AFC Championship game, he caught two passes on the first two pass attempts from Patrick Mahomes out of halftime. In that game, he received the first target from Patrick Mahomes. That was the same thing in the Divisional round, targeted on the opening drive. So he's actually had a target on the Chiefs opening drive in three of his four games played this season. And to kind of tie it all together, Mahomes has had his highest epas per dropback

in the last month. What's been the main difference. Obviously he's been playing better, but Marquise Brown just being active in this lineup has helped the Chiefs offense. I think significantly. It's changed a little bit of the way that defenses played them. I think, I don't know, this isn't a hot take saying that he's an upgrade over Justin Watson,

like running these routes. I think that he, you know, is hey, we got to make sure we pay attention to Marty's Brown as opposed to like, oh, we forgot about Justin Watson again when he randomly scores a touchdown. And so even though it hasn't shown up in the box score every single week for Hollywood, Brown, I think that they're going to continue to get him more involved

again because he missed so much time. I think he's probably benefited a lot from another two weeks of getting that full install from the offense where he's not dealing with an injury. So again, I think Marquis Brown is kind of a an X factor potentially for the chief side of things here, where he was not really considered at all. We didn't really know what was gonna happen him,

and he's been making an impact during the postseason. You haven't seen it in his box score quite yet, but I think they're gonna get him going from the get go. So yeah, he always do his catch a pass on first drive plus one eighty almost two to one odds, So I like that be a lot.

and get the extra point. It doesn't matter. I mean, this is it. We have Andy Reid who is never afraid to go for two, especially if things ever get dire for either one of these two teams. I think that they're not going to hesitate and they trust both of their offenses and the game plans that they have at the goal line to be able to go for to and convert for two. So yes, you can get a little spicy and you can go for Will there

be a two point conversion attempt and will it be converted? Yes, you can get that and get even more plus money. I just need the attempt, it doesn't even have to be converted, and I'm getting even money here. Absolutely, absolutely,

I'm all over this. This is one of the favorite bets because of again, the Eagles offense has the touch push that is a huge weapon, and you're going to take the advantage that you have to use it when you have a chance, especially because Jake Elliott also has not been that great this year and getting back to his kicking, he's missed a lot of extra point attempts and so can take the ball out of his hands. I absolutely would.

go under two and a half. Very juicy. It's minus two forty. And I originally looked at this as looking at the over, I thought, oh, man, like, we see all these weird plays with the Chiefs offense. They have Nicole Harbin rolling out throwing passes. But then I look back at actually this year, neither the Chiefs or Eagles have actually had a non quarterback attempt to pass. So it's like, oh, that's interesting. And they look back at the Super Bowls that the Chiefs have played in and

again none of them have ever attempted to pass. Last year, I remember betting the over on this and it was the forty nine ers that actually came through with Juwan Jennings attempting.

Barkley throw a pass. It'll be great, it'll be fun.

that's uh, that's pretty good. Now. Look, look, if you told me the Eagles win, I'm not shocked by this. Eagles are a really good football time play great defense. I'm not shocked. I'm not shocked. I'm surprised, but I'm not shocked. I still think to be the man, you gotta beat the man, and right now the Chiefs are still the man. So what do you think? What are your predictions and your favorite bets for Super Bowl this Sunday?

Drop them in the comments below, Subscribe to the YouTube channel and Ring the Belt to Think goes ding for notifications. That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for Andrew Erickson. It's Reel Firman Jr. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.