Good afternoon everyone, and welcome into the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs live stream here on the Fantasy Pros Twitch channel. We are now through four games of the Stanley Cup Finals and the series is tied. It's now down to a best of three. I am Tyler Conniam, joined as always by Betting Pros, NHL expert and resident Edmonton Oilers fan Kelly Kirby. These intros during the finals are very easy because I just say, what do you think after the last game? Exactly?
Well, I have much better feelings today than I did on Tuesday, let me tell.
You I would think so yeah, yeah, that was a fun one. Excited to talk about that today. As a reminder, we are live each and every Tuesday and Friday at three pm here on Twitch until the Stanley Cup Finals is done. So there was potential that today would have been our last stream. Not the case. Thank you Oilers, so if you're watching say thank you to Edmonton as well.
If you're watching this on YouTube, reminder to subscribe and follow us on twitch at twitch dot tv slash Fantasy Pros so you can join us live Tuesday and Friday at three Eastern. If you're in the chat, feel free to drop a comment, drop a question, and as we get into it, as always, I'll let you take the floor. That was a hell of a hockey game last night. Give me your initial reactions and excitement oilers, tie it up.
Yeah, let me tell you. I've had a week, like some really sad things have happened, and I like hurried home, got in my seat, like at like six fifty nine, I'm in Central times on right, and they scored those three goals and I literally was just like sure, like this fits right in, and I was like I'm gonna just go like I just went and like changed clothes, and I was just, you know, do I even want to go back and keep watching this? Like is it
too much sadness? And then I walked back, sat down like whatever, we may only have two of these games left. And then all of a sudden, it was just like here they come, and I thought, Okay, we're gonna do this, like I think we got it now maybe and maybe it was like that pentitiveness. And then when they took the lead in the third, I was like, this is great.
And then when Florida scored with nineteen and a half secs left, my dad, who does not watch hockey message me and goes He's like, really, we're gonna go to overtime. I'm like, oh, we are we now, okay, I got it.
So yeah, it was like three games in one. The first period was all Florida, the second period's all Edmonton, and then it kind of evened out for the third period in overtime as well. And we were talking before we started recording. I watched the first period three nothing Florida, and I mean, I'm not an Oilers fan. I got a bunch of bets on the Oilers and all that so and just being Canadian, I got the rooting interest there,
but I was like, you know what, forget it. Turned it off after the first period, got into bed and my wife's like, I think they have Beinton just scores. I'm like, okay, I'll put it on the radio. Then it was three to two, Then it was three to three. I'm like, hey, I guess I'm just back up watching this now. And then as you mentioned, Florida, they take the lead. Then Florida scores at the end there, and it was one of those things where you just felt
like Florida's probably going to win this game. They get it to the early lead, they lose it, they go down, they come back, like it's just one of those ebbs and flows where it feels like the Florida Panthers are going to win the hockey game and they don't. The Edmonton Oilers win it there to tie up to series two to two. So plus that, as I mentioned not our final stream, we also did well on the bets, so you know you had had dry Sidle two plus points for plus money. He's basically good for two plus
points every single time both had Oiler's money line. I had plus one plus one thirty yesterday for the Oilers, which was crazy, which was nice, and then over City there. So that's been hitting, which is which is great. And just watching these two teams like because it's been nice because we've watched all these games, been watching the playoffs the whole time. You watch these two teams play, and it's unequivocally the two best teams left in the NHL.
Like just the high level play in the passing and the special teams and everything super incredible to watch. But I have to ask the big questions. Stuart Skinner gets pulled after the first period they go to is it Picard or Pickers.
I think it's Picard, but I'm not sure.
I like saying Picard because of like Star Trek.
Right, and I don't like Star Treks. So if you want to go the other way, we can, but that's all You're gone.
So we can do either one. So I have to ask you, what is going to be their game plan in game five?
Is it?
Because we feel like every time we have this conversation, we're like, oh, it's definitely skinner, then it's not right. So what is your assumption that we'll be doing for game five? And net?
First of all, I was so excited that they pulled him, and I think it was mostly not because I thought he was like down or out or whatever, but even what I was saying in game three where I'm like, okay, rest him, like he looked like he needed a game off, like and you know, in the flow of a regular season, like he would have had a rest by now. So yeah, I had no problem with that. And then and then Pickard or Picard came in and and really just shut it down, Like I he looked great, and I'm like,
in my opinion, we have two average goalies. And so for me, I'm like, play the fresher one, Like I don't know, Like that's I'm kind of hung up on it. Where I think I think Pickers should start. Now, see now you have me thinking about the pronunciation every time I say it. But I think that he should start game five just because he looked good game four. We know he brought us back during round one. It doesn't make me nervous to start him, So I think that's where i'd go.
It's a good point that you mentioned as you get this deep into the playoffs, like someone like Bobrovski who's played every single game, you know, I know they have some days off. It's going to be a bit of a quicker turnaround game four to game five. Just today off and then we're right back at it tomorrow. So for a player who, you know, Bobrowski's used to carrying that weight and playing all those games, Skinner and Picard, you know, they kind of split it fairly evenly down
the middle. So I'm very interested to see what they decide to do there. As you mentioned, when Skinner came out in the first round, Guard came in and he was great, and it probably would have been his playoffs to start or not if he didn't get hurt. There is a funny little meme that you shared with us earlier that I'm hoping Seth can put up on the screen there. And this is the quintessential Edmonton Oiler's. Normal teams they get a lead, they hold the lead, and
then they win the game. Yep, that's not how the Edmonton Oilers operate. They want to give up the first goal. They want absolute chaos ensue and then somehow win the game. It is unbelievable the amount of times that this team gets down, not only by one or two goals, like they were the first team in history after thirty seven tries to be down three goals in a Stanley Cup
finals game and come back and win the game. I know this isn't a strategy, but what do you attribute their ability to do this to.
First of all, I don't know who to credit On Twitter, I just like stole it, but I had seen it in a number of places, so I just want to give that out. But yeah, I don't know. I mean I feel like I want, you know, the lame answer would be like, oh, they just never quit, like and I feel like it's just more of a we got to make the challenge more. We have to like figure out, you know, how are we going to do it? What
are we going to do? And then it's I really think they get into you know, we blacked out the word, but I kind of think they get into like, Okay, well, f this, let's go yeah and not a not in a f this we're going to totally win the game as much as okay, well, let's just start doing whatever we want to do. And that's the chaos in the middle.
And yeah, my favorite part of the meme actually is the woman on top at win the game who's just like yay, And I'm like, if you're an Oilers fan, that is exactly how it feels like you are in a car that is on fire and like you're excited, but you're also a little nervous still.
So yeah, yeah, And there's the famous again the clip from last year in the finals and there down three CODDR McDavid in the dressing room during an intermission, you know, completely cursing out the team, saying get it together. And I thought I would not be surprised if that's the exact same speech that he gave after that first period. There and then they just come out a different team. They don't take as many penalties, they just look a
lot more confident. They start playing their game. So again another instance of it's the best of three now. So we've had so many different versions of this series already. It's really been one of the better series that we've seen. So which version of the Oilers come out, the one that are rattled or can't stay out of the penalty box and Stuart Skinner can't stop a buck or the version that was the second period where it's how does anybody ever beat this team? So I think that's that's
what I'm excited to see. As I mentioned second period, three hundred answered three unanswered goals yet and they came from sort of maybe unlikely sources, Nugent Hopkins, nurse, Pod cales In, Pod coles in, you know, not your dry Sidle, not your McDavid to get them back into it. Then they get a goal from Walman at the end, they're and unbelievable. He was wide open forever on that one time slapshot that goes in, and then of course Ryan
Hart ties it for Florida. We go to the end, dry Sidle gets the winner, and that was a bit of a softie there that Bubrovski led in what did you make of that overtime goal?
I thought that was payback for Marshawn's overtime goal in Game two, when it just it's the most helpless feeling. I actually have empathy for Panthers fans on that regard, where it's like he stops, he's an acrobat, he stops everything, and then just this weird little squeaker goes through your legs. It's just horrible. So that's how we felt at the
end of of Game two. So and sometimes that's just what it is, right, I mean, hockey is like, yeah, it's talent beyond belief, but that the amount that the puck bounces and just rolls around. I honestly, I am always like I don't know how anyone scores, and I don't know how anyone stops it.
So it's one of those things we've talked about how the Oilers just feel like the team of destiny, and then to do it with a minute left in overtime, Panthers just need to survive another minute. Pebrovski's made some unbelievable saves in that game, made a couple on dry sidle and then for that to be the goal. Again, it's just one of those things of like, you know, destiny just seems to be on their side a little bit.
You see it, whether it's a good bounce in basketball or ball's just foul and baseball the goal is like that at the end of the day, could end up being the difference between winning the Stanley Cup or not winning the Stanley Cup. Before we get into Game five and how we're betting that, I do just want to tell you about an offer at FanDuel. So if you want to boost your bets, new FanDuel customers can bet five dollars and win two hundred and fifty dollars in
bonus bets. If that first bet hits, all you need to do is head over to bettingpros dot com slash fan Duel to get started. That's bettingpros dot Com slash FanDuel. Make your plays on FanDuel today, make a bet five dollars and try to win two hundred and fifty dollars. Okay, So the stage is now set. It's Game five. The series shifts back to Edmonton. As expected, the Oilers are Favorites minus one fifteen, minus one twenty, Panthers around plus one oh five. I can't read what that says on
the screen. Pinnacle plus one oh seven maybe, but they're in the plus one one oh seven, so plus one oh five plus one ten range. Before we talk about the total, which is I feel like going to be a bit of a topic of conversation. What do you think about that opening line? I think it's pretty pretty in line with what I expected.
Yeah, it's actually exactly in line with what I figured it would come out. And that's it's kind of the let's let's concede that these teams are incredibly close together and that Edmonton at home should have I mean, they should be favored and so, but I wouldn't I would want Florida to go much higher than that, because then I would then I would start to feel like I would almost want to bet them. So I am fine
at minus one fifteen or plus one or seven. I think those are actually really good numbers.
Yeah, I think of anything, I was thinking, Oilers maybe one fifteen, one twenty, and Panther is closer to even money. I'm actually surprised that it is as high as one oh seven not enough to make me want to bet it. I am going to put some money on the Oilers, but if anything, maybe Panthers. But again, the home ice advantage is a big deal. And then the over under it's I feel like it's gonna be six and a half probably the rest of this series unless something crazy happens.
I did notice there aren't a lot of places to get a six. I've been taking over six the first well, I took the under for Game three. That was the only time I took the under. But every other time six over over over, it's gone to six and a half pretty much everywhere they are gonna make or they are gonna make it a little bit profitable at plus one oh five, it's juice to the under. This time at minus six at minus one twenty for six and a half. So what are your thoughts on the total there? Yeah?
I think part of my thought is how many games do we have to see before before we're like, maybe maybe seven goals might get scored here. I you know, I really, really truly believe that the game three was the one that was going to go under, and it sat there at hung there, But then the other three I'm like, I don't know what we're I don't know what we're doing four to three and overtime seems to be like the play that I would think of prior
to all of the games. So no, And I think when the first four games go over six and a half, like, how do you offer an over six? Like? How do you give them that? And I kind of want to see as people keep thinking about it, how like what good odds can we get on the over six and a half? Like just how high up can we get that to go? And I think people are going to overthink it and if it if it gets to I mean, I've already bet it. I think I got it at a plus one fifteen somewhere.
So we're actually on opposite sides of that one and we'll talk talk about that and the reason behind that. But very exciting for game five. Could it be a repeat of last year we talked you know again last time there down three to zero in the series, they start coming back. Anytime they seem to face adversity, they are coming back. I don't want to say the Oilers are invincible, but they do seem like they just have maybe the ninth live there. It's another game, they come
back from the deficit. As we mentioned thirty seven and one, now, teams that are up three to nothing in a Stanley Cup finals game to win the game. Oilers are the first team to do that. And then when you look at who scored and who's done what, you know, we get another three points from dry Sidle, we get one from McDavid. They're both tied with thirty two in the Stanley Cup playoffs. To Chuck is the closest Panther and he's only got twenty one, so he's eleven points back
of both of those players. Dry Sidle and McDavid also both lead this series with seven and six points. And then on the flip side for the Panthers, Sam Bennett has six. He is Bennett, Marshawn and dry Sidle are leading the way all there with four goals. So as we go into Game five, we saw it with the way Edmonton came back. They're three goals in the second period were a lot more of their depth pieces. Do you think the depth is going to play another role
in Game five? Are we going to keep rolling with dry Sidle, McDavid, Bennett, Ryan Hart, Yeah.
I mean I'm going to roll with the latter. I think I feel like the depth is always going to play a role. And if if the Oilers can get something from lines three or four, and any goal from lines three or four is would be fantastic. But no, I mean, I just keep coming back to I feel like it's just going to come down to it's gonna come down to that top line for Edmonton doing what they can do. And and if again, like if Kine could come in and do something like the ones we
saw Connor Brown, I'm not gonna even try today. It's like I'm seeing Walman's who are like, yeah, that's great, and I really like that. But I'm like, in terms of like what are we going to rely on from a betting perspective, I'm this to me going home. This is where we just start going at what Dry, Sidle and McDavid could get done.
I agree, it's every time I try to say sathing, it's gonna be the deepest cut that nobody is ever going to get. But there used to be these old commercials in the nineties for a watch brand called Esquire, and they'd get these Canadian athletes to just say, like their name Esquire, and there used to be. I think he was a skier named Scott Pazinski, and he would say Scott Pazinski, esquire if anybody can remember that, that's who that reminds me of there as well, And I
got to agree. This has been the series where the stars have shown up. The only player to record a point in each and every game of this series so far is Sam Bennett. He has two to one. Sorry, he's got two to one, one and one, so he's a good bet. They're starting to get juicy though, like even Connor McDavid two points in Game five is minus one twenty five. Issue is going to continue to be penalties.
There were four power plays on each side. The Panther scored on two of them, the Oilers scored on one of them. We've talked about this before as well, that the refs it doesn't look like they're going to open it up and just let them go. It looks like they're going to keep calling a pretty tight game. So who do you think that favors.
That's actually a really interesting question that I thought of when when I was prepping for the show, that you know, a let's give it up for Edmonton not giving them eleven power plays like that was that's fun hockey. I mean only four, which is terrible, but I'm okay with it.
I think it benefits Edmonton a smidge more, just because if they're going to call it tighter and Florida is a more physical team, I think that that's that there might be one or two calls that get in there that, you know, if we were going to just let them ride, there's no way they would call it. Now. If that continues into Game five is the question, because I feel like they could actually go with, okay, well now we're gonna let them get more physical, which would benefit Florida.
So yeah, I don't know, and I don't know why Edmonton. They usually do a pretty good job of staying out of power plays, but I think the ones last night at least, if we're gonna look at the positive, we're kind of genuine like power play opportunities, not like we got baited into something stupid penalties. So that's yeah.
They they did seem to play a little bit of a smarter game. And then one issue might be Ryan nushen Hopkins, big participant of the penalty kill. He's nursing an injury. We don't really quite know what's going on there. He was questionable before Game three and he played, but he's still out there on the penalty kill, so you
have to wonder if that can be a factor. They're relying on him to be a producer on offense as well, and he's on the penalty kill, so you have to think one of Edmonton's biggest priorities has to be staying out of the box, because I mean, obviously you don't want to give the other team the advantage, but Florida's done a really good job of making them pay and they're scoring on those power plays and they can continue
to do so, which will be interesting. And again we touched on the goalie situation already as well, whether it's Picard or whether it's going to be Stuart Skinner and Bobroski let in the softie there in overtime, but he did make a bunch of big stops. He's still got a safe percentage of nine to one to two. So two scenarios, it's Bobroski versus Skinner who has the advantage.
If it's Bobroski versus Picard who gets the advantage, is it still going to be Florida regardless, or do you think Edmonton can get an edge in net?
No, No, it's about it's Bobovski. We're not even going We don't I like to discuss some things. That one is not a discussion, Like he's just got the experience and I don't. It doesn't matter what Skinner or Pacard doing that, they're just not They're not gonna measure up. I mean I even had a dream last night like that. I was just like, what would it be like if we put both Skinner and Picard in that? Like could we cover more ground?
Like a long trench shot?
I'm like, just would we be able to stop them? So, yeah, I know it's always gonna be Bioroshki.
H and Babrowski's gone his saves prop has gone over in all four games so far this series. Is that something you're looking at for game five or do you think that maybe this is like does anything correct or it's just over over over.
Yeah, I think it's gonna go over, but I think they're gonna raise the number and like once you're there, then you know how high will it go? Before You're like, it's just you know, even before overtimes. He has crossed the number they've put up in every game, and I'm like, I just feel like, you know, we might see a twenty seven and a half, we might see a twenty eight and a half, but probably not. I would say it's gonna bump to twenty seven.
So yeah, I think they're gonna they're just gonna keep pumping it up there because I think everyone's just been on those numbers and they're gonna have to start correcting them before we get into our best bets. I did want to talk to you about the NHL prop bet cheat sheet, So if you are betting on Game five tomorrow night, you need to be using the NHL prop bet cheat sheet. It shows you the very best play values,
very best value plays each and every day. You can get daily prop bet value rankings based on projections, find the best props for shots on goal, points, saves, and more. Use it now at bettingpros dot com, slash NHL props or on the Betting Pros app So I've been heavy on there for not only the NHL, but the w NBA and the NBA Finals as well. So that's where you want to be if you want to be betting props. Okay, so let's start talking about Game five. Let's start talking about our bets.
Bets.
I'm gonna kick it off here. I like the Edmonton Oilers at minus one twenty. I think they're the team of death. I still think they're the team that wins the Stanley Cup. I've got them to win the Cup. I've got them to win game one in the Cup. Might as well take them to win Game five as well. I think the home ice advantage is going to be just enough, and I do think they have enough momentum coming out of Florida. They get the split, it gets a game they should not have won. They're coming back
home now. I like them on home ice minus one twenty. If you want to get a little bit interesting, you want plus money. Look at them to win in sixty minutes. I don't think this game goes to overtime. I am flipping the script and taking under six and a half or minus one twenty. And here's the interesting thing. If I can find a six, I might punt out of this and take over on the six. But that half a goal does mean something to me because the push potential is essentially, in my mind, a win. So you
almost have sort of insurance there. But at some point, I do think in this series we will inevitably see an under six and a half. Does this game series go seven, It's very possible we could see that, but I do think this is another instant where whoever wins Game six is very likely to win the Stanley Cup. So having said that, I do think, and I always say, if the Oilers win, take the over, and again if you can get a six punt out of this and
take the over six. But I do think at some point we're going to see a game where there aren't a million goals scored. I'm going to bet on not being Game five for under six and a half. And actually when I put this graphic together, the only bet that's different from the last time we did it was the under because I've got to go back to Brad Marshawn. Last time I bet it was minus one twenty. Now it's even money for him just to record a point. As I mentioned, he's got four points in this series.
He had one in Game two, two in Game two, one in Game three, and he didn't get a point in Game four. I think he's going to be ready. I think he's going to play a lot of minutes. I think they're going to four Panthers are going to rely on him. So it's also sort of a safety net for myself as wealthy others don't win this game. I think that Marshaw might be a reason why. So I'm going to take Marshawan to record a point for plus one hundred. What do you got?
What do I got? Well, first, I was going to my like, if you're a neutral party, if you're not me, and you want to put some money on the pl like closer to game time, when Florida is on the money line, that plus numbers is high, it's going to get I would throw it on there. And then assuming Florida's gonna score first, and then you should be able to get plus money on the oilers, like you know immediately. So if you want to like hedge a little bit, you can do it that way. I am. I'm taking
the over. It's not on the slide. I just the over six and a half at home. I've tweeted it so many times at this point it feels dumb, but you know, death taxes and the over in Edmonton, Like I just feel like it's just gonna keep going the way it's going. And like I said, that four to three feel is just it's just there. It's constantly there. So so those are the two non props when it comes to props themselves. Like you said, the McDavid two points, I'm not betting that at at minus money like that
just doesn't. He probably will, but I don't think it's worth that. So I'm gonna go with the two plus assists. He has a scored yet, I feel like or he hasn't towared lately. I feel like he's that he's due for that as well, but I think that the amount he's facilitating in the way that they kind of let him cross the line again last night, I feel like the two assists are there and power plays, et cetera. And tied to that, I think Evan Bouchard for an
any time goal at plus four fifty is absurd. So he's on the power play, he's with McDonald or McDavid and dry Cidle and Newton Hopkins all of the time, and he shoots constantly, like you know, yeah, he only shot three. He only got three shots on goal yesterday, but prior to that it was seven goals eight or eight shots, nine shots, like, I mean, it's just he's gonna I think at some point it's going to go in again like it did in Game two. And then
I put Sam squared one point each. I like both Bennett and Ryan Hurt to pick up a goal in this game, and their odds alone are not too bad. But if you put them together, then you're at plus one sixty eight. So and mostly between you and me, I just wanted to the superscript and writes stand so there's also that. But yeah, so that's why I'm rolling it.
And I like to McDavid play too there to assist plus one fifty four. As you mentioned, he hasn't scored in the finals yet, and he I mean, it's not for lack of trying. He's been there. He's had some good opportunities. Last night, I had a great opportunity where he skied through a lot of the defense there. But he's been playing facilitator very very well, and he sort of let dry Sidle take over that role of you go and score these goals, and he's been perfectly fine
with that. So I didn't initially have McDavid as an anytime goal scorer. I might still bet that that's something that the books might like to do a super boost on or a bet boost on, and maybe you get him for plus two hundred or over in game five, at which point I do like that. Right now it's around plus one forty. I just don't think the value is there because he hasn't scored yet, so you could say he's due. I'm going to look at it more like if I'm taking the under. I've already got a
point prop there. I'm probably not going to get too heavy into the overs there, but that could all change. I also really like the strategy to of wait for the Oilers to inevitably go down. Even I should have checked what the odds were last night when they were down three to nothing after the first period, because it could have been plus six seven hundred. That that would have been I think worth a sprinkle on, and I think something to keep in mind for game five too.
Yeah, I think it was plus six twenty. I looked at it, and again, if I hadn't had the worst week ever, I probably I might have tried it, or maybe I should have anyway, But yeah, it's uh. But again, like with if whichever team starts at plus money. I've been doing that a little bit where then I head when the other team scores first, and for sure in this one I would do it.
So there you go. And on that note, that's really all we have to talk about for game five. So before we get out of here, let people know where they can find you on socials and on betting pros.
All right, so on socials, on Twitter slash x, I'm at the Wonky Penguin, and on Blue Sky I'm at the Wonky Penguin. And I should probably even this up early. On betting pros because I'm betting pros. I am, it's Bettingpros dot com. You slash won Keep Penguin. There's no no so may I might talk to Blaine about that, but great to get.
That fixed up. I'm at Tyler Coddium across Socials, Bettingpros dot Com, slash slash Tyler Condium. As a render. We will be back next Tuesday because there will still be more hockey as we're getting close to the end of the Stanley Cup finals here. If you're watching this on YouTube, make sure you follow and subscribe on Twitch, Twitch dot Tv slash Fantasy Pros so you can join us live next Tuesday, where hopefully we're talking about someone being on
the verge of winning the Stanley Cup. So thank you, enjoy your weekend, go oilers, and we'll see you next week.
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros s