Good afternoon everyone, and welcome into the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs live stream here on the Fantasy Pros Twitch channel. And finally, the Stanley Cup Finals start tomorrow.
Very excited about that.
I am Tyler Connye am joined as always by Betting Pros NHL expert Kelly Kirby.
Now, the last time we.
Did this on Friday, you were very cool, very calm, very relaxed as an Oilers fan.
Now that we're on the eve of game one, has that changed or how are you feeling?
Yeah, it's a little different bit, you know.
Now it's like, oh, now we have to actually go do something and watch it, and so yeah, I'm a little I'm a little more tense. But I think it's just all that space between having such cocky confidence and not actually seeing them do anything. So I'm sure as soon as they score tomorrow, like all right, we're good, we're fine, We're going to sweep.
It's the jitters of the fans is the players. Once day I get a few shifts in there, or get a few shots, get a goal, even then they can kind of settle into it. I feel like it's very much the same for fans too.
Once you get into the rhythm of the game.
So thankfully it is finally starting. As a reminder, we are live each and every Tuesday and Friday right here on Twitch through the end of the Stanley Cup Finals. And if you are watching this on YouTube or listening on the audio feed, be sure to follow and subscribe at twitch dot tv slash Fantasy Pro so you can come hang out watch it live. If you have a question, if you have a comment, feel free to drop it
into the chat there. So last time we talked, which was Friday, we did a breakdown of the series what we thought sort of all the key matchups were, so before we get into the game one specifics, did just want to recap what our bets were for the series.
So I'll let you take the lead on that.
Of course you will, because you know I'm going way out on a limb on this. I actually told uh two, I told two guys that. They were like, oh, it's going to be a great series. I was like, nah, I'll be over and four games and they looked at me like I was just insane. So but I did place a small little bit on the series being a sweep. At plus six hundred, I don't mind a five games either, just because those odds are really good and I think there's a ants, but you know, again they're risky. So
I also like McDavid to have the most points. The time I said it was plus two seventy. I did not check it today, but I imagine it has dropped down just a smidge. But I'm also cool with Kuchuk. I mean, you give me plus one thousand that a panther might have the most points, I'll take it. And I feel like he gets overlooked in the playoffs and what he did last year.
Yeah, and the way the series went in the West and went in the East. You know, a sweep is never completely out of the realm of possibility.
Is it likely?
No?
But at plus six hundred, could it happened one out of every five or six times, which is how we always talk about plus money doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to happen this time, but over the course of time, making these bets will eventually pay off. I'm a little bit a little bit more simplistic. I do have a big one up there too, but I like the Willers
to win the Cup. It was minus one ten. I also haven't checked the updated odds, but I am assuming that based on Game one it might have shifted a little bit, maybe one fifteen minus one twenty.
Still fine with that.
Then I like the oiler to win tomorrow night Game one and win the Cup. That's a parlay, pre made parlay. You can get it a lot of books, fan dual DraftKings of that nature. And then Sam Bennett, who is got the most goals in the Stanley Cup playoffs. He's plus eleven hundred, so that's something Nick a cash without the Panthers even winning the series. Theoretically, if he's the only player that scores for the Panthers, I will take that. So those are our favorite bets overall for this series
as we get into it. So even though it's been five days of really not a lot, at the same time, it hasn't been nothing. So I think the biggest question with that, I wanted to ask you about. Carter McDavid threw a little wrinkle into all these plans over the weekend when he left practice after about five minutes he was seen talking with the trainer. Oil's so come out and said there's absolutely no concern with him missing Game one. It's all precautionary. But does that concern you at all?
I mean, yeah, Like I think we can all agree there's no way they win this if McDavid goes down for any amount of time. I maybe, I guess, you know, there's always a small chance, but I would like to think I really am hoping this is some of that Hackey gamesmanship that you always like to talk about where teams will just lie straight up or just not say anything for a while. So maybe he was just he's
just trying to be sneaky. But I sincerely like, yeah, he is the one that cannot go or else, all of a sudden, the series looks entirely different.
Yeah, and that's kind of the thought I had too. Is this maybe a little sort of sneaky, like he doesn't need to practice. We saw, you know, throughout the playoffs a lot of the star players, Austin mattal of these guys aren't practicing just because why risk anything. So is that maybe a little bit of gamesmanship of let's just throw a little bit of seat of.
Doubt in their mind.
But then you're right if this, if it is something, maybe it's a tweak, whether it's an ankle, or a groin, or who knows that the way he skates, the way he plays, if that could turn into something, then all of a sudden, you flip this entire series upside down. He's the favorite for the cons oilers are the favorite to you know, win the cop win game one. All
of a sudden, it brings all these other things into play. Obviously, it's very important to see how he comes out in game one, But ahead of that, are you looking to change any bit, make any bets to head or you still just you know, let's see what happens here with McDavid in game one.
Yeah, I mean I already you know, I did the heads for the for the Panthers when they were plus one twenty five to win the Cup, just because I have the oilers. That's such significant plus money that I'm going to come out ahead either way. If he goes down, I mean, yeah, you're gonna change your player props pretty significantly. I would start undering a lot of things. I would under goals, I would, you know. It's but as long as he's healthy, then I'm back to looking at more
overs than not. So it's a yeah, it's just I mean, and I think in a lot of series, there's always that one guy. Unfortunately, if Florida doesn't really have the one guy, they could lose one or two and probably be okay. But like, I mean, we have McDavid and dry Settle. If either one goes down, I don't see. But for sure Connor, so it's.
A big it's in big trouble for sure. That's something I just wanted to ask.
When you're looking at a series like this, obviously the lines are going to be pretty sharp, it's the only game in town. Are there any key props that you look to in a series like this, like whether it's says, whether it's shots, Is there anything you try to hone in on when maybe we get end up getting a five and a half or a six line that's so razor thin.
Yeah, I mean I look at I like goalies, and then again you'll kind of I think we'll kind of know after game one where this is sitting, Like right now, I'm on the over. But if if it gets tight, I mean then you start looking under undershots on goal you start looking at unders points. I hate doing under points, but like if you're looking at two, one, three one games, it's like that's just the safer way to go about it.
So the first game, I'm still kind of I'm on the overs, but I also like the goalie unders or like skinner under.
So it's just a very it's touchy, but you have to see how the how the whole thing rolls.
I think yeah, and I think it's important way to look at it because way like one thing I always say is bet If betting was just pick who wins, then we'd all be ripped, right, because a lot of times you can pick who's going to win a basketball game, a hockey game, but when the odds come into play, that needs to mathematically influence the way you bet. Becau If you're betting minus two fifties every time, you're not
going to be profitable. So as things shift, as things change, you know, maybe you're not looking at sides, maybe you're not looking at totals, you're keying in on some more props like that. The other thing I want to ask you when it comes to a series like this, obviously
there's a lot of star power here. Do you tend to look to the stars in a series like this, guys like McDavid, dry Sidle or do you tend to shy away, like I always think in baseball, particularly when you say Aaron Judge, for example, you get into a playoff series, he doesn't have the greatest playoff history, but the odds will kind of like push you to want to be betting these overs or something like that. So do you tend to shy away from the big name
players in series? Is like this or is that where you try to key in on a little bit more.
Yeah, I tend to key in a little bit, but I like to do like a little bit more combos, Like I'll take a one point even like significant odds, and I'll combine them with something else that has kind of significant ods just because yeah, they're gonna they're gonna they are begging you to go over on McDavid and dry title and they're gonna make those lines not all
that friendly. But it's also hard to see, like you know, this is where we go back to the Nugent Hopkins, this is where we go back to the Brad Marshaans, Like like you start looking deeper, then, yeah, like if one of the lines on either team pops up, like the third line for Florida did in the first series, it was like Okay, then that's who you're that's who you're looking at going forward.
Yeah, I think it's an important way to look at it because again, the average you know, people probably not like us, that aren't betting on every single game and every single thing. They're just opening up their sportsbook app and they're going, I want, what is the what are the props on Conor McDavid, What are the props on
dry cyitle into Chuck? And that's what they're hammering. So I think it does open up some opportunity to maybe find those lesser known players, someone like Nugent Hopkins that how many times we've been on him in these playoffs and made made profits. So definitely different ways to approach that. Before we get into Game one specifically, and I want to ask you what you think about the total there. I didn't want to quickly tell you about an offer
on fan duel. So if you want to boost your bets for Game one of the Stanley Cup Finals tomorrow night, New FANDUL customers can bet five dollars and win two hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. If that first bet hits, all you need to do is head over to bettingpros dot com slash FanDuel to get started. That's bettingpros dot com slash FanDuel. Make your plays on FanDuel today. Place your bet on the Oilers or the Panthers five bucks and try to turn that into two hundred and
fifty for the rest of the playoffs. So, now as we get into game one, the meat and potatoes of it. Initially, you know, we can look at the line and it's Oilers are favored by minus one thirty, so they're the pretty heavy favorite going into game one. Panthers are plus one fifteen. The line has not moved very much, so the only tick that's moved is the Panthers went from plus one ten to plus one fifteen. Oilers have stayed pretty steady at minus one thirty, and the total hasn't
moved much either. It's six and a half six at some books, but for the sake of conversation, we're gonna say six and a half at plus money plus one ten and then it's juice to the under six and a half minus one twenty five. So Conference Finals was the tale of two series. We hammered the overs for the Oilers and the Stars we hammered the unders for the Panthers and the Canes. How do you think, particularly in Game one, do we think over do we think under?
Well, yeah, I'm looking at the odds on on betting pros right now and Sugarhouse has over six at plus one oh four, which I would hit every second of every day. I don't mind an over six and a half. And again we talked about this, but like it's in Edmonton, and in Edmonton, I feel like I feel like the Oilers in Edmonton is just they just go and and I think that maybe, like you said, we talked about the Miles on Florida, like they've been they have been
playing a lot of hockey in the last couple of years. VIBRASKI, you know, might come out a little bit like I'm not really sure. Here's all, here's this cocky, confident Oilers team. So I like the over here six and a half, but I'm very willing to adjust quickly to that.
Yeah, and I've got to go get that number two because one of my favorite bets is over six, because I always take the around number when I can, if it's not too juicy. I got minus one eighteen, which I thought was great for a six, but if you can get plus money on a six, I really like that. And I'm in the same boat. I think people don't that aren't maybe Edmonton fans or necessarily see a lot
of their games. Their homice advantage is no joke. This is not your average home iice advantage this crowd is loud. Tickets are affordable, so you've got the hardcore. I mean, final tickets are going to be expensive, and relatively speaking, you've got your hardcore fan base in there.
It's going to be loud.
And we touched on a lot in the preview of this different attitude of this Oilers team, from touching the trophy to just the way they've been going about this that I feel like they come out and they just immediately pedal to the metal, try to get an early. I really like a goal in the first ten minutes this game. I don't feel like you're going to get this oh you know, touchy feely how we do and feeling each other out because they just played it last
year in the Stanley Cup finals as well. It was almost there's that, you know, this thing of tchuck that's come out. We're in the handshake line, last year he said we'll see you next year, and that both teams just figured they were sort of destined to do this. I don't think you're going to get a lot of feeling out here. So I really like the idea of this being a pretty quick, high scoring, paced affair. I think Edmonton's really going to try to dictate the tempo
of this game. But what do you think of the minus one thirty there on the oilers?
I mean, I think that that makes sense honestly for game one, if for people who are betting it, you know, because it's like you said, it started like minus one twenty or something. I mean, it was going to kind of go that way, specifically because it's an Edmonton I don't necessarily believe wholeheartedly like minus one thirty is a great is a great number. I wouldn't go any I wouldn't go any lower. It gets to mis one forty one, mis one fifty and then there's there's nothing.
I wouldn't touch it.
But but maus one thirty, you can sort of justified it at that point.
And I did take the minus one thirty sort of. So again, bet MGM always has a twenty percent boost, so I took the minus one thirty. It did bring it down to about minus one oh five. I just I am so sort of all eggs in the basket with the I mentioned oilers in this series and in this game particularly that I'd be willing to pay the minus one thirty.
So I put it on there as well. But if you did want to get a little bit.
Creative, I think that oilers and regulation is like plus one fifteen.
I think I don't see Game one going to overtime. I just don't.
I don't think we're going to get that type of game. What do you think about a regulation bet there?
Yeah, I love your regulation bet. I saw that in there. I think that that's definitely that's great. But so if you want to stay off the minus one thirty, Yeah, I don't see it going overtime either. I think that I think one of the more likely outcomes would be that they build that lead and then kind of just sit on it. And I don't but you know, a skinner, he could let in four goals in the third period.
We have no idea, but put in general, I think that, yeah, he I think that that's just the way to play.
It is a sixty minute and.
I was gonna say there might be some potential there if you want to wait and live bet it. If the Panthers get that early lead and the Oilers come down to almost and even money, there's an opportunity to jump on them at that point. So lots of different ways to play game one. Some quick stats for you to get you more educated on this. Obviously, McDavid dry Sidle they're leading the way on playoffs scoring with twenty six and twenty five points a piece. Sam Bennett, as
I mentioned, leads the charge with ten goals. That's three ahead of dry Sidle. And then when you start looking into in a series like this, you're gonna have a lot of X factor. There's a lot of goaltending. Both teams have started all three series in these playoffs on the road, and here we are in the finals. I mentioned the Edmonton home ice advantage, but then you look at the Panthers. They've started every series on the road and they've won all three series. Do you think this
being a rematch having been there before? How much of home ice do you think will be a factor, not necessarily for the Oilers but against the Panthers, or are they going to be able to sort of block this out. Of course, it would freeze when talkalking about Oilers and fandom and homewaice advantage. Well before she gets back, what I wanted to mention is just the stats.
Are you back?
Am I back?
You're back?
Okay, okay, you remember that day that the thunderstorm started at the exact time we literally just got going here.
So sorry the joys of early June.
But that's what I think.
What I was saying with the like psychology, fantom and the energy in that building is going to I think it will throw the Panthers off a little bit. I think Oiler fans remember last year and remember how flat they came out, and and it's just they're just not gonna It's going to be so insane in there that unless Florida can score, I think they would almost have scored two goals in like the first period to.
Get them to shut up.
One goal is not going to do it, because every Oiler fan on Earth knows that the other team scores first.
So that's what I like about the Oilers fans is they're not the type of fans that, if you know, save Florida's scores in their first five minutes. They're not going to quiet down like a lot of other arenas might, like we seen in Carolina, like we see in Toronto, They're going to be loud unless it's you know, because they can come back from three goals really not that difficult. They've done it before, so I think that's going to be interesting. One thing I saw in the betting pros
account today the Corey Perry curse. So Corey Perry, this is now his fifth Finals appearance in the last six years, but he hasn't won any of them. So Dallas with twenty twenty, they lose Montreal, twenty twenty one, they lose Tampa Bay. In twenty twenty two, they lose Edmonton. Last year they lose. So the only difference this year that he's still on the Oilers. It's the same team anything he has won a Cup before he went in a
second year at Anaheim. Could something like that be a deciding factor or you on the flip side where it's like, well they've got Kane and they've got Corey Perry now to try to offset guys like to Chuck. How much of a factor do you think someone like Corey Perry will be in this series.
Yeah, I enjoy that curse.
I mean I would say, like if he if he'd been there in all of them, that it would be and had never ever won, I'd be like, Okay, well then get him off the team. But yeah, I think this year, the fact that he's back, the fact that they've played together the whole year, the fact they played together all.
Last year, I think that thunderstorm might be hitting again. We might have got struck again.
Well, there we go, we're back. The lightning is the past.
Seriously, Yeah, okay, cool?
Anyway, be safe out there, Yeah exactly, I'm like, is it hitting the house?
What are we doing?
But I agree with that there as well.
And I think one interesting thing that I saw today is Rogers, who owns the at least owns the naming rights out there in Edmonton Rogers marketing campaign, they've taken ice from six different Oilers players home rinks, including Conor McDavid's home ice in New Market, Ontario, blended it up in the ice surface and then that's all on the ice for Game one. So a little added thing there for home ice advantage. So it's those little things you're looking for, those little edges when you get to the
finals that you just never know. Before we get into our best bets for Game one, I did just want to tell you about the NHL prop bet cheat sheet on Betting Pros. So if you're betting props, as we mentioned, are you betting the stars, are you betting the depth pieces, Well, either way, you want to be using the NHL prop bet cheat sheet. It's going to show you the very best value plays for each and every game in the Stalley Cup Finals. You can get daily prop bet value
rankings based on projections. You can find the best props for shots on goal, points, saves, and more. Use it now at bettingpros dot com, slash NHL props, or on the Betting Pros app So make sure you're on there making all of your Game one bets. Really excited to see what all these points and these shots on goal props are going to look like. So obviously a little bit of a shorter stream today because we just previewed the whole series on Friday. We don't have a game
until tomorrow. So before we get out of here, let's talk about our favorite bets specifically for Game one.
Take it away, all right, So I thought I did hit the over six and a half just because I liked the extra plus money and until proven otherwise in Edmonton, I like the scoring.
I believe that we're going to get a very.
Like, heavily focused McDavid, and so I like him on an anytime goal at plus one fifty, I wouldn't have any trouble betting Drycydle either if they get any power plays. This is just gonna these These are the types of thing that you can cash on those types of moves. And then I went to a FanDuel and you can get Barkhov and kuld Chuck to each get a point
and it goes to plus one oh six. And with the two of them playing the way that they do, I think that, you know, Barkhov with the assist, kuld Chuck with the assists, they're on the ice a ton. There's no reason why I wouldn't I wouldn't want to bet that. And then you know, I go with the
skinner the under twenty four and a half saves. I want to believe in him so strongly, like it's all I have, but I don't know like either the limit the limit Florida and how many shots or you know, he could get pulled if they gives up a bunch in the first period, So either way, I like the under for him.
Yeah, and I'm deaf jumping on the McDavid anytime goal, I'm going to jump on the bar Coffe could chuck and it almost sort of covers like both could certainly hit, but it does kind of cover your bases. Like if Edmonton goes out and wins this game, chances are McDavid scores and then vice versa as well, and with both being plus money.
I like that.
And that's the thing with saves people have to remember, like it's saves, it's not save attempts. So Skinner could face thirty shots and still only make twenty four saves, right, So you just never know there, So I like that one as well. As mentioned I like the Oilers money line. It's minus one thirty. Shop around. This line might be very different by puck drop tomorrow. Try to find a boost.
I'm sure most books bet MGM is one, especially if you're in Canada, that is offering a twenty percent boost that you can jump on. Got the over six for minus one eighteen. If I can get out of this and go find that for plus money. I'm going to cash that out and go do that. It's oftentimes the problem with making these bets. You know, forty eight hours in advance, you might find a better number. And then I like Bobrowski to go over on the twenty four
and a half saves. The Oilers are averaging thirty two shots per game throughout the playoffs as well as the regular season, so again, even though even if they do score, you know, they average four point one four goals, even if they get those, I do think they're going to be absolutely peppering Bobrovski with shots, especially in Game one, and I do trust Bobrowski more than I would trust Skinners, so I think he should at the very least save,
you know, more than eighty percent of them. So my favorite prop there is Bobroski to go over twenty four and a half save, So I think that will pretty much wrap it up. We've talked this series to death before Game one, very excited to see the puck finally drop. It feels like it's been forever since we were able to watch a hockey game. So you can find us right back here on Friday at three pm. By that point,
there will be. I guess Game two is probably Friday night. Yeah, so that should lead us into a Game two preview and we'll know what's what. So thank you for tuning in today. As always, if you're watching this on YouTube, make sure you're following on Twitch dot tv slash Fantasy Pros. You can watch us live each and every Tuesday and Friday, and you can also let the people know where they can find you across socials.
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We've got.
So excited to see the puck drop. Enjoy tomorrow night's Game one Oilers versus Panthers. Whatever side you're on, feel free to drop comments on these videos. Let us know what your favorite bets are and we'll see you on Friday.
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