Who will be the Master.
Let's talk to the pros.
Welcome in everybody to betting Pros. It's me Joey p Joe, Pi's Apia and we got a great show for you today. It's a little bit of golf talk, that's right, because the Masters is coming at you really quick, and we wanted to bring in, in my opinion, the best when it comes to golf, whether it be DFS, whether it be wagering. He is the host of the Pat and Mayo Experience podcast, and he is an experience unto his own. I have known Pat now for I don't know, close
to a decade. I feel like it's getting like closer and closer to that. It's definitely seven eight years, I'm just gonna say in a decade. But Pat Mayo, I am so excited to have you on here. I know you do so much with DraftKings, I know you do stuff with FTN. Now you're everywhere as you should be,
and we're just lucky to talk to you today. Pat's gonna help us break down the golf slate looking forward to the wagering opportunities that lay ahead of us here at Betting pro So, Pat, welcome to the program is so great to have you, my friend.
Thank you very much. Yeah, almost like you. I'm everywhere like Fantasy National Golf Club, the biggest stats database and tools on the planet, everyone can get in a Mayo media network on YouTube. But he said, a decade's a really long time. I'm so old now it freaks me out a little bit.
Yeah, and you're catching up to me and kids. You've got two. Now I've got two. I'm done. So I don't know it's to your limit. Have you finally said you know what? This is good? Two is good? I think we're good. Or are you pushing the envelope? I know, I know you got a lot of things in the works. You're moving, you're always doing stuff. But how's the second kid affecting the Mayo household?
Well, two is good enough for me. My wife wants more, so we have to kind of figure this out at this point. Having two within the span of eighteen months kind of push push back the timeline a little bit.
All right, all right, So let's let's talk a little golf here and we'll leave Pat Mayo's private life private. He's very wonderful for sharing a little taste of it with us here on the program today. Let's talk about the course first, in your opinion, what kind of player does this course favor and what is that you know? First attention we should pay because obviously you know last year when you look back at the Masters, Dustin Johnson is going to return to defend his crown. But it
was a record breaking Master's win for him. But who else out there in your opinion in terms of style of play really kind of fits this course.
Generally speaking, you're looking for players that have great ball flights, can get it up and down around the greens just in case you ever end up missing, because these runoff areas are so slick that if you don't hit the right quadrant of the green, you're no longer going to be on the green. Lag putting judging the speed of the green. So experience really goes hand in hand with playing well at Augustin. You mentioned Dustin Johnson in that
record breaking performance in November. I think that's the key though November. The course is not going to be quite as receptive this time around. My guys on the grounds at Augusta National right now are telling me firm and fast, it's going to play a bit more challenging. Then they just had no idea how to control the course because they just have never seen a try set up in November before. So expect it to be harder, expected to
be fast and firm, more difficult. So you're looking for second shot players who are the best approach players on the planet. That's generally the starting point where you want to go. And if anyone has a bit of extra distance, that only helps to mitigate some of the long distance
of the second shots. So someone like Bryson or Dustin or even John Rahm are they're going to have like one hundred and seventy five one hundred and sixty yards into some of these part fives to set up eagle opportunities where a lot of the players in the field are going to be two hundred to twenty five way. And that's not to say that those players can't compete, it's just their path to getting there is so much more difficult.
All right, Let's let's talk about some of those favors that you kind of mentioned there at the very top. So if you're looking for odds and go to betting pros dot com and you can pull up all the consensus odds from everywhere and see which book that you like the most. But let's kind of go with general speaking here, because if you're looking right now at the top dust and Johnson is at plus nine to fifty, then you have Bryson de Chambeau at plus eleven fifty
and Jordan Speith at plus eleven fifty as well. So these are the three guys at the top of the board. We'll get into that next grouping after that. But are you somebody that attacks the favorites always in these kind of tournaments or are you somebody that's looking for that outside long shot kind of play? Because these are two very three i should say, very formidable guys at the top. So how do you kind of break them down and disseminate between them?
You really can't, is the thing, especially with the odds being so close. And then you can even throw Rom Rory and Justin Thomas into that favorite mix as well. There are six of them this week. How do you discern between all of them? Well, I mean, if one of them shows up and plays to ninety seventh percentile, they are going to win this tournament. It's just it's golf, and that's incredibly difficult to predict So I'm not someone
who generally bets the favorites ever during a tournament. I just don't think that golf odds actually lend itself to that. Because when we're thinking about someone like Dustin Johnson, for example, in a field with all of the best players in the world, and of course he just won, what is his actual win equity versus the rest of this field? He's nine and a half to one. I mean, do
the odds actually reflect his win equity? Probably not. He's probably he is the favorite to win, no matter what sort of model that you run, but it's gonna spit out like five and a half percent, six percent, six and a half percent. So those odds just don't match up. And I just think that casting a wider net at something like the Masters and golf betting in general, is really the way to go. So let's just call him
ten to one for the sake of this argument. So you can have one Dustin Johnson at ten to one, or you can still have four top twenty players in the world at forty to one for exactly the same price if you bet ten dollars, or let's say you've got one hundred dollars ten to one on Dustin Johnson to win, you would get your thousand dollars back. Now you could bet twenty five dollars on each of those forty to one guys and you would get the same net payout, except you have four guys. You can avoid
a disaster from one of them. That's fine. One of them goes away, then you have three more runners to try to get into the race. So that's the way that I like to approach golf. Betting a little bit more does become tricky at a tournament like the Masters, because going back to twenty twelve was the last time, I mean that's when Bubba Watson won his first Masters and he was the eighteenth ranked player in the world
that year. That is the worst player in the world to win the Masters since So you're looking at someone inside the top twenty if you really want to find a winner this week.
All right, So who are some of these guys that you're going to target in these clusters, Because I mean, Pat broke it down for you in about as good of a way as you possibly can. I think it's very tempting to see those big names at the top. But what Pat's saying basically is look, you know, you kind of spread it out a little bit over a few different guys and the next thing, you know, you've got better odds. It's like more outs and poker basically
when you got more cards on the table. So here's a question for you with the course, with some of these things that you're putting out there, how would you go and attack Which certain guys do you think are worth the wager in terms of the odds that you like where they're at and the style of play that you're talking about is going to be needed to be successful on this course at Augusta this weekend.
I think you're looking at Brooks Koepko. He had knee surgery about three weeks ago, he hasn't played, and it's the last week of February when he came second at the WGC against all of the best players in the world. He lost to Kaala Morikawa concession that week. He won in Phoenix three weeks before that, and you're looking at good lead in for him too. That's always really important.
If you go back and look at the past seven winners of the Masters, they had at least two top fifteen finishes in their lead up over the three starts coming into the Masters, So Brooks does have that. The biggest concern about him is his need. Is it gonna hold up? In my answer, I have no idea. But what I'm getting is we talked about the six favorites.
Now normally there are. I mean, Speth has played his way into this conversation, obviously with a win last week, in his history at the Masters, and just his overall popularity. It'd be like if Tiger had made a cut coming in, he all of a sudden he be the favorite. Just because he's Tiger, people want to bet on him. Speith is in that category. People want to bet on him. Brooks people don't really know, and it's affected his odds to the point where I think he is a value bet.
If you talk about like daily fantasy, I mean he might withdraw, who knows, But when you're talking about the betting market, there's no difference between last and second. You need to become first. That's how you win these bets. And Brook's going off at twenty eight to one right now. If he was healthy in coming in, he would be
eleven to one to win. So essentially you inherit the risk of you don't know where his game is at, you don't know what his health status is at, but he's playing and my reports from the course said he looks pretty good. He's not limping around or anything like that, so he could be playing powesome here. So you're getting brooks Kopka at over double the odds of all of
the other favorites where he would normally be. So when I mean, we call this gambling for a reason, you're gambling on you, and I think you're getting really good odds on a guy who's one of the favorites to win.
And how much stock do you typically put into somebody who's hot coming into a tournament. I mean that you sort of alluded to the fact that that's usually a good sign. And it seems like in all sports too, when a player, individual, or team or whatever it might be, When somebody's in a groove, they're in a groove and
it tends to carry over. Is there anybody else who kind of fits that bill for you, that's been playing well so far that you feel like, is you know, maybe kind of set up for possible success suprising success in this tournament?
Yeah? I think Matthew Fitzpatrick is that guy. You can find him as deep as fifty five to one in some places. Since since coming state side at the Genesis, which Riviera CC in La is probably the biggest crossover leader board to Augusta. A lot of former Masters champions have won at Riviera, which would make Quail Hollow the Wells Fargo Championship another crossover course as well, So those two would be the ones that I'm looking for. Fitzpatrick started out there and he's not I mean, he's added
distance to his game is off. The team has been really good so far this year, which is surprising because he's he's sort of like in the Speed Camp in the way that he plays like generally he's shoulder off the tee, good long irons, great potter, great chipping, but he's added this like extra twenty yards of distance and it's really propelled him up the leader boards. He hasn't quite closed out anything so far, but he came fifth
at Riviera. He has no finish worse than t eleven, a tie for eleventh than any of his four starts so far in America this season, and he's come top ten at the Masters before if that was his best finish the ye that Danny Willett won in twenty sixteen, and ever since then he makes the cut every single year, but no real high end performances. But he seems like a different player, and he's playing great coming in. If the conditions do play firm and fast, that's to his advantage.
He plays hard courses really well. And one of the great things about some of these Brits if you do want to target them, just looking at the weather forecast right now, it seems like Friday. I mean, it could get rained out based on the forecast that we're seeing at the moment, but if they do get out there, it's going to be soggy. It looks like it's going to be super windy. Fitzpatrick is one of the few players in the world who the worse the elements get,
the more to his advantage. That actually plays so in ideal conditions, he's pretty good. In bad conditions, he's better than most of the other players in the field. So bring on the wind if you have Matthew Patrick. But he's just been playing so well and he's fifty five to one, so I think that's and he's the number sixteen ranked player in the world like. He's a very good player. I think people are sleeping on him a
little bit and those odds are massive. So there's him and then there's web Simpson that you can get at forty to one or forty five to one, depending on where he look. His form not so great coming in. He does have two top six onages so far this season, another one at that WGC the first week they actually had Deflorida this season. But he has top twenties at the Masters each of the past three years, top tens
each of the past two years. And once again, if this comes down to in irons, chipping and putting competition, you just need web Simpson to be okay off the team. It doesn't need to be Brooks. He doesn't need to be Bryson or rom or Bubble Watson off the tee because that is not his game. What he needs to do is have the exact same path that Speith does to win it. He needs to not bleed strokes off
the tea. He needs to be around field average, maybe slightly better than the field, but not much, and then light it up with the irons, which he can do, put the lights out, which he can do, and have one of the best short games in the world, which he does have so forty to forty five to one. That way he can go Brooks, web Fitzpatrick and Thore's are three guys right away at pretty deep odds.
That's pretty good. Sounds good to me. Actually, I feel so much more empowered now now. I actually, you know, I'm somebody who doesn't always, you know, look for the golf. I enjoy watching golf. I miss playing golf, but I have zero time to do it, which is really sad and pathetic. But as my kids are getting older, I feel like now I have a little bit more time where maybe I can get out there again and you know,
dust off the old clubs. I used to be okay, I know you're good, but I used to be all right back, and yeah, that is fake news.
I have played one round of golf in the past three years.
Really I would see that happen. You have kids and all of a sudden, the golf game goes away. It's terrible. It's the worst thing ever. I mean, if any time you need to go out there and get some time to yourself on the golf courses when you have little kids, for God's sake, here's a question for you, going back
to the Keopka injury. Is there any concern with some of the elements when you have a surgery, we're coming off an injury or things like that that that could have a negative effect even though we like the player going into it, if there is damp conditions and things like that. You know, like it's just kind of putting that out there. Is that any sort of pause for you when it comes to Koepka because of the elements?
No, there's no pause for me. But I completely think that there's probably gonna be something that pups are like, oh no, he doesn't look great right here. But that's part of that. That's the reason that you're getting the odds that you're getting on Brooks, right Like, that is baked in to the risk that comes along with his twenty eight to one. So you know, like I said, if he withdraws, that sucks, but if he comes second,
that also sucks. So I'm trying to find guys that can win, and I know Brooks can.
Win, all right, So take me through for those who may be new to DFS golf and whatnot, take me through your approach here, Like let's say we're on DK and we're trying to, you know, put something together here, and you want to be able to watch the tournament and kind of have some pieces of it. What's the
best practice for you to say go out there? I mean, I know you've mentioned some of the names, but what's the approach when you're looking at the pricing of the guys you're trying to squeeze people in and say, Okay, this is this is how I want to approach the slate here for the Masters from a DFS standpoint, because I think a lot of people like Waydering standpoint, but then if you know they want a little bit more action, there's always the DFS side of things too. So how would you go through that?
Well, I would go over to Mayo Media Network and watch my walk through videos as I carved through this ST's on Fantasy National dot Com and build as.
You should, by the way, because that has incredible work like this that does coach you through. And I've been on your show so many times and I think what's so great is that you always have content there for people who are, you know, new to things that walk them through the process. But you've also got the hardcore people audience too, that are you know doing this all
the time. So do the two minute walkthrough for everybody, and then everybody go watch the real walkthrough please of Patmeo's website, because exactly what you need to kind of getch up and speed on the how of doing this.
Yeah, I mean when you do four hundred jows ere you can cater to do at all.
I mean that seems like a low number for you. Actually is the point with four hundred.
Four hundred Patmeo experiences a year. There's also other content that comes out in between with them, the short videos and such. But what you want to be doing here is trying to jam in as much win equity into your six players on draftings as possible. Do not get lured in by Fred Couples or Bernhard Langer. These like super old dudes who have no shot at winning. Could they make the cut? Sure? Why not?
Yeah?
Great they can come fortieth that theys do nothing for your draft. Afkins are froster this week, So just avoid that temptation because if you put them in, you can start jamming in all of the top end guys. You're like, my team looks awesome, Oh I need Oh I need is Fred Couples to come in ninth. Yeah, well he's not coming in ninth, so just get mind right away. There are our guys at the bottomless. Then you can play a balanced approach. You can play a top heavy approach.
The pricing is so soft for the masters that you can build almost any lineup you want. I would say, leave one hundred bucks at least on the table to make sure that you don't get duped, because you don't want to be splitting that million dollar top prize with anyone. Come on now and just if you're gonna play, let's say one lineup. You know, just pick whatever six guys that you want that you feel comfortable with. I could say that you could go as low as Matt Wallace
at sixty four hundred dollars. There's a group of guys down there. So there's Matt Wallace, Ryan Palmer, Kevin nah and Robert McIntyre, Bobby Mack, the Scottish lefty bomber. He is a debut tomp, which is not great, but he's a lefty and he hits it a mile, which usually goes a really long way to success at Augusta. So
you can use those guys at the bottom. If you want to jam in all of the guys at the top, you're probably better off looking at setting a cap somewhere around like sixty seven hundred dollars for your last man in. I have a couple of lineups with Max Homa, who's one at both of the correlation courses that I talked about, Riviera and Quail Hollow. He won Riviera this year. It's a second Masters. That's not great, but he's seventy one
hundred dollars. He is the perfect game for Augusta. If you want to be your last man in, you have a really balanced lineup with win equity in it, no matter who else you took. But if you really want to go crazy at sixty seven hundred dollars, there is Seeoo Kim just sitting there waiting for you to say.
That one more time because it was just so fun.
That would be see Whoo Kim.
Whoo Yeah, Okay, I.
Mean he wins, he comes in last, he withdraws. He's the Ricky Bobby of golf. He's not first, he's last, but he rarely misses the cut of the Masters, and he's super cheap, and he's really playing some of the best golf he's ever played coming into this, so that's really encouraging to see from that front. And then like you could start with Speeth if you wanted to, because
he's super cheap. He's gonna be the highest owned guy on DraftKings, but it does give you a he's usually the second man in on a lineup because he's so you just wanted to start with Speed, go Speak, then Brooks, then like web Simpson. I mean, that's a core that a lot of people aren't going to have. So there's just so many different ways to play it. Just don't take yourself out of the running to begin with by taking one of these guys who just legit have no shot of winning.
There you have it all right, real quick. I just want to ask you too, because you've got an influx of some really good young players in recent years. Is there anybody maybe out of nowhere or one of the young kids you really want to watch play this weekend that you think is going to make the cut and really be something maybe sooner than later, Because I think that's always the thing that sometimes these guys come out of nowhere, and some of these young players are very
advanced games. Obviously, we've seen the evolution of golf over the last twenty years. It's a very different game that it was when we were growing up as kids in terms of these young players really competing once they get onto the tour. So is there somebody that kind of fits that bill that you might want to just be watching some of their rounds as they go into the week.
I mean, it's always fun to watch Hovlin, Morikawa, Matt Wolf, Scheffler and will Zlatours, those five guys in particular, and Robert and Tire for that matter, those six, I'm just very curious to see how they do another their first or second master. Joaquin Neeman is another one. I think that they all have the right type of games to excel at Augusta. In the future, maybe it comes a
bit faster for them along this lines. But like Maraka is one of the most expensive players on the board, He's been a cash cat, He's won three times in the past year, He's already won a major. Hovelin has a rary style of games, so he's just going to be fun to watch and a like I said, I have money on Homa to win at one hundred to one so you know, I would like him to go within that would for me just come inside the top
ten mad Max and we're fine with that. But the young guys, yeah, you want to see how they can build their experience and learn the course a lot. But just you don't see a lot of first or second time players at the Masters win. They can compete, but they just don't win. So that really becomes the tough part.
Like I think that is Pat. I'm curious, do you think it's just the information of that first big event of the year or is it just the course itself.
It's the course itself, Like there are so many there's the reason that guys like Bernhard and Fred Couples can still make the cut at age sixty one. They know where to hit it, they know where to miss, they
know where the ball. Like the biggest example that I can give you is probably on Whole eleven where it's that one where you start at the very top of the hill and then the green is down to the left after a huge drop and elevation, that second shot with the water off to the left is so intimidating.
But you just see, like Bernhard Langer like take it like a three iron play a worm burner down the right hand side's like, oh yeah, if it hits that mound, it's gonna bounce onto the back of the green over there, and I'm gonna be safe. It just takes reps at the course to know that stuff. So for every you know Tiger or speed who ends up like winning in his first in a second try, most guys don't do that.
It takes that certain level of experience and familiarity of where the course is going to bounce in your favor and like you don't want to, Like, there's just certain courses, even on the power fives, like, oh, I can't hit it deep right there. If I hit it deep right there, I might chip into the water coming back up. So if I'm gonna miss, I'm gonna miss to the left. You guys just have to take through lumps. Some guys
get accelerated through that, but most do not. So that would be the way that I would kind of approach it that that experience factor does matter, just because this is such a unique course and unlike a lot of the ones that the players see throughout the course of the year. I did want to give a special shout out though if people are looking to get in on some action. Here Fantasy goolf Championships dot Com, we're running a thing called the Race for the Mayo Cup. It's
a one and done. You pick one player per tournament and you can only use them once all year. We've done a condensed version, so it goes from the Masters to the British Open, seventeen events. It's one hundred bucks to play, ten thousand bucks to the winner of it, and there's only a thousand spots available. I mean there's less than that now because it starts at the Masters. It's almost full. If people do want a spot in
that Fantasy Golf Championships dot Com, it's pretty awesome. It's from the same guys that bring you like the high Stakes, like NFBC, like that kind of thing, and now the sports Tubs. It's an awesome contest and you just pick one guy and you can use all of the favorite
throughout the course of the year if you want. If you're someone that is intimidated by the betting marketer doesn't bet a whole bunch of money, like you have one hundred dollars to spend, that one hundred dollars is going to last you over seventeen weeks, so it's great bang for your buck anyway, and there's ten k at the top like that, that's not chump change.
I love it. I think it's fantastic. It's a great alternative. Everyone should go check that out right away. They should also check them out at Twitter at THEPME as always and check out the Pat Mayo Experience Pat. Where can everybody get all of the great Pat Mayo Media network empire? Because you know there's always a demand for it, So where can everybody go? And what else you got going on? Now that's hot?
Well, Fantasy National dot Com slash Mayo will get you twenty percent off the most customizable stat engine in.
The world, all the tools.
So it's a great product. I love it. I help develop it with my friend Mike, and it's been gangbusters. People swear by the product I do do. It's super easy to use. So if you're have an intimidation level with anything like tools or anything like that, don't When it comes to Fantasy National dot Com again, slash Mayo will get you that twenty percent of the Mayo Media network on YouTube. Just go to it, subscribe to it.
By the way, you know, like all the videos, all that stuff that helps us boost up and searches and algorithms, because that's what's important, people getting those getting up in the Google algorithm. That's the keet all of it. So I have my show comes out every day and it's a mix of sports. It's golf right now, it's going to be football obviously, especially with the draft coming up. I got Oscar stuff coming up. My show hits on everything.
But we do have a you've never had the ex actor here on the Oscar Show. I don't know how that's the case.
I mean, have you seen Have you seen all the movies this year?
I get them sent to me every year because I still vote for this Green Actor skill towards, so I actually get most of them. Now this year I've been lax. Usually I have seen them all. I usually try to see them, but this year I was a little behind because all the changeover and coming over to Fantasy Pros and doing a lot of the other stuff. But typically speaking, I am a good go to person because I have seen all the things and and I know I do have a history there in the profession for a good
decade plus. So just just throw that out there next time I want theme.
I have one spot left on my Oscars betting show. If you want it, and you've seen the movies, it's your.
Spot's the problem I think this year I'm a bad guess. Next year, I'm going to hold you to it. And I'm also going to hold you too. If you hit the one hundred to one, you and I go out and play around of golf with that money, or at least a small part of it. Some more nice that's all I want.
I mean, I got some more hero seewoo. Kim is one hundred and fifty to one, I'm in on that. Kevin is two hundred and fifty to one, I'm in on that. Listen, no one picks more losers in golf than me from just enticed by these huge odds. But I got money on those guys. To any of those guys, win ya, I'll treat you to a round of golf. That's not a problem. But Mayo Media Network on YouTube my show every single day, it's just it's Master's Week,
so there's a ton of masters. There's golf every week, there's football every week, plus all the special shows that we do. But the other shows on the Network. We have a daily baseball show comes out every single day at midnight to prep you for the next day. It's fifteen minutes long. It's a real easy thing to do. Fantasy Baseball Picks and Bets. There's a daily hockey show, Fantasy Hockey Picks and Bets. We have our UFC show
every week. It's the number one UFC betting show in the biz, at least, the most wash and downloadedly so you can come hang with Cody and Paul on that one. We try to be all things to all people and all the money that you lose along with me. The other show is actually make it up for you, so it's a wash when it comes out to it.
There you have it, and look, you gave us a lot of good information. We appreciate your time and your insight and the advice to kind of spread it around with some of the higher odds and give yourself a couple more opportunities to hit big. So hope everybody enjoys the Masters this week and this weekend. I know Pat
Mayo will be watching. Hopefully you will too, and again make sure you follow us over at Fantasy Pros at Betting Pros Again it's bettingpros dot Com for you to get all the latest in terms of the odds and where you can make your wagers because you have everything condensed into one spot where you can go ahead and look at all the odds and different players and get the best odds you want in the different places. So that'll do it for us today, but we'll be back
again for more betting talk later in the wee. Make sure you follow him again at the p M and enjoy your golf this week. Everybody. Thanks for joining in and we'll see you next time.
Kids,