It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to betting pros right here. It is me Joey p Joe Pi's APA, and today we're going to talk about the PGA Championship, which begins in just a day or so. Here we are on the precipice of another major here in golf, and we have a great guest for you from Sportsbook Wire. He's the one,
the only Esta McLaren Esden. Thank you so much for taking the time out to talk to us today, and we're gonna dig into some of the favorites, some of the props, and some of the stuff that I've seen that you've verse put on betting pros as well. So are you excited for another major?
My friend?
Very excited, excited for every major ever, but this week especially, you know Wednesday, the videos coming in on Twitter, these practice rounds, and guys have in trouble. Just before the show started, I just saw Rory put one in the water on seventeen three what off the tee on a part of three into a twenty mile pour wind. So if he's doing that at a course where he's had unbelievable success before it's gonna be quite a tournament. And you now we write up all of that in content
we do these podcasts. You know, we can't really do much about a twenty mile pour wind in part three with the water hazard in front.
But no, not a fun day at the office there with that kind of a win. But look, let's talk about the course first, because I think that's always the thing we want to break down. Then we'll kind of get to the weather as well. So it's in South Carolina. Rory obviously is one of the headliners of the event. And you know, when you're looking at right now this course.
Does this course favor guys like Rory is or somebody else in this field that you feel like from the course before you even get into the wind factors and some other of the elements in there, who do you think it really favors? Just from let's say a perfect setting.
It favors the long hitters. This is the longest major venue there's ever been on the PGA Tour, seven eight hundred and seventy six yards. There's five par fours between four hundred and fifty and five hundred yards too longer than that so driving distance drokes ganed off the green, but also power four efficiency four fifty to five hundred. It always seems like a cop out to say the
longest hitters have an advantage. That's not really the case anymore in today's day and age of golf, where everyone can hit it long. But when you're hitting it long and into a ten to twenty mile per hour wind, that length matters, and it's it's gonna be something. And outside of the length, obviously, I'm gonna and more for my long shot picks. I'm looking to guys around the green, short game, sand play. There's bunkers guarding almost every green
on this course, sand dunes as well. So outside of the long hitters, you got to focus on that short game and the sand play, and that brings a lot of long shots back into play here.
All right, So I know one of the long shots you like is well, I don't know how much of a long shot he really is. A plus eight hundred Brooks Koepka one of the better golfers out there. We know McElroy somewhere in that plus two hundred range over on betting pros. And if you're trying to make sure that you get the consensus, you can always head over
to betting pros to get those numbers. But who are some of the other long shots, because I know last time when we talked about the Masters, we talked with Pat Mayo about taking shots on some of these guys because that's how you make money in golf wagering. Who are some of these long shots now that you think go to the forefront because of the elements and because of the course and that combination coming to fruition.
Well, as you mentioned with Brooks, Koepka, absolutely bizarre to have to call him a long shot, but a plus five thousand, he pretty much is. And he missed the cut last week at the ATNT Byron Nelson. But if you look at the strokes gain stats for that tournament, he did well in the areas that he needs to This week, he was near the top of the field and strokes gained around the green and strokes seeing out the tee looking forward to that translated this course out
a very high number. We saw him at the Waste Management Phoenix Open earlier this year with a number way higher than he should have and he went out and won the things. So that very much can happen again. Obviously a lot longer than that, we have Shane Lowry. He's hovering around plus eight thousand, plus nine thousand, depending
on where you're looking. To me. This course has a lot of similarities to royal Port Rush where he won the Open Championship in twenty nineteen, and you know, maybe not so much in whole design that sort of thing, but a course that runs along the coast of the ocean, just like royal Port Rush in Northern Ireland. If that weather gets bad and tough, that favores a guy like Shane Lowry. Longer than that. Even still, South Africans really
popping to me this week. Christian Bisweden, Hoot and Dylan for Tlly in particular, guys great short game and great sand players. For Kelly is also top ten on tour in driving distance as well, so he's dark horse here. He had a top five, finished tied for fifth and the Fall Masters didn't do so well in April, but he's competed in a major before, so that's good enough for me. This week, and with that wind and whatever weather we get, kind of leveling things off between the
long hitters. If guys have to play that shorter, more controlled game. I'm going to trust in his play in the sand and around the greens.
Now, let's talk about some of those top ten finishers and kind of change from who's gonna win the tournament to some other fun props and some other fun wagers that we got. Now, now you like for Telly also to finish in that top ten?
Correct? Is that still the case now with the weather?
I know this right up was a few days ago, but again when the elements started to creep in, just want to make sure we're still on the same path here with some of these guys, or perhaps there's a few other guys that you start to see now on that landscape that you think could finish in that top ten that really could make them want some money.
Yeah, for Telly at top ten is worth a shot for me at the odds, probably a safer play as a top twenty. Shane Lower he just mentioned I like him as a top ten play as well, And then Brooks Koepka again we mentioned his outright odds are far too high. His odds for placings are also higher than they should be. So a guy who missed the cut of the Masters missed the cut last week at a lesser tournament. You know, if you can get good value on him for a top five, even the top ten finish,
you gotta jump at it. Patrick can't lay even as as a top ten guy with plenty of top ten finishes of majors. I like that at plus values. So if you you need to hedge against these outrights, whether you're picking among the favorites or the long shots, it's you know, arguably never seen a better time to load up on these top five, top ten finishes rather than just thrown out at right shots.
Well, here's the question for you too.
Is there anybody right now that you think is a trap where you see it's maybe it's a bigger name on the board. Do you think maybe the course doesn't really suit as much as some other people might think, or the odds makers might think, or also with the elements that might be at a disadvantage because I think obviously now we're starting to see a little bit of a different turn here as you're kind of pointing out to us, is there somebody that you would stay away
from them because of it? You think, you know what, maybe this guy isn't a top ten finisher, or maybe somebody who might be, you know, one of the favorites quote unquote, it might not be the best wager.
Yeah, they're you know, the odds aren't horribly wrong for them. But two guys who are going to get the public attention that they shouldn't Hideki Matsuyama and Colin Morricawa, the Masters and PGA Championship PGA Championship winner respectively. You know, this course just doesn't suit them. Well, it's so much longer than TPC Herding Park for Calin more Akawa, he's not a long hitter. He's first on tour and stroke
Saint approach and that is a key here. But he just doesn't have the length to contend if that's going to be the issue on Saturday Sunday and then Hideki Mountsuyama. We saw him return to play last week. Did they keep Iron and Nelson at top forty finish, but just really made a mess of things around the green and putting was very inconsistent. We saw him missing within ten feet and gain strokes with the flat stick for the week.
But yeah, the player around the green wasn't there for him, and you know, obviously he came out and put everything together to win the Masters. I just don't see that happening here where whether it's going to be a much bigger factor.
You have an interesting take here too on best finishing position where you have a Decie Matsuyama Midas won ten versus Patrick Cantley at minus one ten. That's over at MGM Sports Book. What's your what's your feelings on this one here?
Yeah?
I really like Patrick cantleigh this week. He's hasn't been great this year. He won the Zozo Championship last fall, but the twenty twenty one form just hasn't been there consistently, coming off a couple of miss chats that the Masters included. But this course suits him well. He's you know, very early. He's fourth I think on tour in strokes gained around the green and he's averaging over a half stroke per round off the tee as well. So I go, who can hit it long and has that short game. That's
the great combo for me. So he's the only player onto or and in this field who's averaging point five strokes per round around the green and off the tee. So if he can put that together, I'm we're getting a high number because of the recent miss cuts. I'm going to overlook those.
In your opinion too.
Who's coming into this tournament very hot? Like, who do you like in terms of how they're playing right now? I know you kind of talked about, you know, Kopka, but there's somebody else too that you think is kind of trending in the right direction here, because we all know, like every other sport, you know, typically there's a you know, catching lightning in a bottle or somebody who hits a
hot streak. Who do you think right now is playing very well that we should keep our eyes on maybe as well this weekend.
The obvious name is Jordan Spief and you know there's been no hotter player in golf this year, with the win a bunch of top tens, even another one last week. So yeah, it's tough to bet against Jordan's beef whenever he's playing like he is. But this is a guy, even still as good as he has been, he's still erratic with the driver, and I'm going to be interested to see how this course plays for a guy like that. This week I'm fading Jordan's peith entirely, and I'm i
have to live and die by that. So the driver is still his biggest problem. If you have to pinpoint a problem in his twenty one game, and you know the wide fairways here at the Ocean course, but if that win picks up, they may not be long enough for a guy like him, especially if he's already spraying it and then that win catches the ball that's headed left or right, it's going to be trouble for him.
All right, let's get to some fun wagers too. Will there be a playoff? What are your thoughts on this one? I see on DraftKings you get a plus four hundred on the sports book there for the yes. Is that something that you're on board with?
Yeah, if you look back at that twenty twelve PGA Championship leader board, really the only one we have for Keo Island after Rory McIlroy winning by eight strokes, that leaderboard bunched up in a hurry David Lynn for anyone who remembers him at five under solo runner up. But then after that there are eighteen players between one under power and four under powers. So yeah, if you take out a performance like Rory mclroy had, it's gonna be close.
Then I think plus four hundred for the value for a play off that's good enough for me.
And then when it comes down to wire to wire winner, do you think right now that is a wager you want to get in on or not, Because obviously the elements sometimes can really kind of make certain days erradic, especially what time people are teeing off two because that's what groupings everyone's in might affect them very differently in the morning versus as you get later to the afternoon. So does that now become a wager to stay away from or something that you actually think you can make money on.
No, I like this one, especially when you look at the Thursday morning tea times. You have a power group of McElroy, Koepka and more Kawa I believe no, sorry, Thomas McElroy and cap So yeah, you'll look at those three three players in the world. If one of them goes out and posts a low score Thursday morning before the wins potentially get much worse, then those guys are gonna be tough to beat come Friday and the weekends.
So yeah, that's the angle you have to play. And it kind of piggybacks off of the playoff prop as well, if, oh, if any of those guys or somebody else goes out and posts a low round Thursday morning, there's gonna be a tough course in tough conditions to play backed up on.
All Right, there you go.
Before we part ways with the Eston again, you can follow him over on the Twitter machine over at Esten McLaren on Twitter, and please check out his work not only on betting pros, but also check out his work at sportsbook Wire. Eston, what are your other parting shots here? Other things that you look at the board that you feel like there's opportunity from the wagering side or maybe even from the DFS side.
Too, if people want to get involved with that.
How do you kind of see the rest of this weekend now as we're getting closer to everyone teeing off here after the practice round.
Yeah, So for DFS especially, I would diversify the Thursday tea times. You gotta have some more early morning and some late afternoon. I think last I checked the weather for Kiowa. The weather or the winds are down early in the morning and then down again late afternoons. So you got to try to split your six man team whoever's going to catch either end of those waves, I would stay away from kind of that mid day tier.
But yeah, it's you know, it's an ocean course, so that weather forecast it may not mean much, and that's that's why you got to just kind of spread it around, do those one hundred and fifty lineups whatever many you're able to do, and get the best mix of tea times throughout the day, and then obviously things can turn around on Friday as well. But yeah, to mention again, for those lineups, the favorites are going to be the
long hitters, their prices such a draftkingspan, duel, orever. And then a lot of the values are in those good short game guys and the bottom tiers that you can save your money there. So I like that as a split as well, and kind of hedging either way in both you fast and in betting. I like long hitters and the best short game guys.
There you go. It's a really good approach. So hopefully all the approaches look as good as yours.
Do this week as we go ahead, it should be an interesting week of golf. Nonetheless, Eston, I want to thank you again so much for your time and hopping in with us, just talk a little PGA. I hope everybody feels that they are confident now to go out there and go make some fun wagers over that, and again make sure you're following us over at Betting Pros and check out all the great content at Betting Pros, including
all of our consensus over there as well. Again, follow him on Twitter at Eston McLaren and of course you can follow me at jops APS seventeen. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on. We'll see you next, Dodd kids,