Hello everyone, and welcome to the Open Championship preview for betting pros. Uh excuse me, the Open Championship Preview.
I don't want to say we're gonna get You're gonna get canceled by all the purists out there like myself who know it as the Open or the Open Championship.
Yes, this is the the Betting Pros Open Championship Preview. I'm Pat Fitzmorris. You can find me on Twitter at fits underscore ff and joining me uh here to correct me when I make these sorts of faux pause is my esteemed colleague Bo McBrayer. He offers his PGA Tour betting takes in a weekly Betting Pros article, and he also is a DFS podcast on IBT Media called The Nineteenth holl Find him on Twitter at Boa Mcbig Time BOUH.
So you know now that you're no longer aggrieved that I refer to it as the British Open as an uncouth American, let me ask you one thing before we get to the betting and now says you like to cook, you enjoy good food. Since we're talking about the Open Championship, are there any dishes or delicacies from the UK that you're especially fond of.
There's not many. I mean, they're not exactly known for their cuisine over there. One good thing that has come from colonialization, though, has been the influence of immigrants and the cuisine to Great Britain. And so yeah, you could pretty much say any kind of Jamaican dishes is good and has English roots to it these days. But if we're talking just traditional English or British, it's gonna be a nice beer battered cod filet and with some proper chips,
some really nice pumfrey to crunchy French fries. What they do is put a malt vinegar on it with a squeeze of lemon juice on it. That is delectable. And then I also am a big fan of Shepherd's pie, and Shepherd's pie is a staple. It's more of an Irish Irish dish, but it's it's pretty common across the whole the whole UK.
They do fish and chips very well over there, and I agree the malt vinegar is a great thing that just hasn't caught on for here for some reason, I would recommend staying away from the brown sauce. That's one thing that they use a lot of in the UK. Yeah, that is that is not good stuff. They also have very good you know you you refer to it as fish and chips. They refer to French fries as chips.
Potato chips are crisps, and they have some spectacular crisps over there, Like they do potato chips better than we do for some reason. Uh, sticky toffee pudding one of the great desserts.
Yeah, that's some good stuff.
And believe it or not, bout like I love the you know, the the Oregon stuff. I love the blood pudding with a you know, full English breakfast. I like Hagis at Hagis in Scotland. It's actually pretty good. So you know that's but do not if you're in the UK, do not get a steak. They do not know how to butcher meat over there, and everyone I've ever seen order steak there, including myself, has regretted it. Just get a hamburger man, trust me on that one.
Yeah, And that's one thing that they've adopted from us as Hamburgers are very popular in Great Britain and they have a place in England called the It has. It's it's a place that's down by the rail yards, but it's called the Dulceton Dip and it's a it's a double smashed cheeseburger, but they dip it in brown gravy. Oh good Lord, and and it is I made it, are recreated it here at home because I had to. It just looked too good. And it is everything that I could have hoped it would be.
Oh no, as long as it's the UK's brown gravy and not there sauce, I'm good with that, man.
Yeah, brown sauce, stay away.
All right. So both the Open Championship this year is can be held at Royal Liverpool. It's located in the small town of Hoylake, which the course is sometimes affectionately known as Hoylake, which is due west of Liverpool on the Wirral Peninsula. It's a seaside links course and it is a true links course. Players will be able to land their approaches in front of the green and bounce the ball onto the putting surface. Wind will be a factor.
The forecast is calling for wins in the twelve to fourteen mile an hour range most days, and there's a little bit of rain in the forecast every day, not too uncommon over there. This will be the thirteenth time the Open has been played at Royal Liverpool, but only the second since nineteen sixty seven. Last time twenty fourteen, Rory McElroy wins it at minus seven teen. Ricky Fowler and Sergio Garcia finished two shots back, and in two thousand and six Tiger Woods one at Hoylake minus eighteen
was the winning score. He beat Chris de Marco by two shots and different conditions for those two Open championships bow if you'll recall, Tiger sort of famously kept the driver in the bag all week in two thousand and six. It was playing firm and fast.
And stingers everywhere.
Yep, the lowest stingers, that's right. And then in twenty fourteen the course had gotten some rain beforehand. It was a little more driver friendly that year. And this year I'm hearing that Hoylake is sort of in between those two extremes, so you know, not ridiculously firm and fast, but you know, you can't exactly just bomb it away at will either or you might wind up in a gorse bush. So it's gonna play it seven three hundred and eighty three yards and as a par seventy one.
There's been one major change to the course. They basically flipped the par three seventeenth so that it faces the opposite direction that he used to face, and that brings water into playoff the tee and presents trouble left, right
and long. So the seventeenth could be a little more dramatic than it was last time we saw it, all right, bo, It's worth noting that six of the last ten Open Championship winners have been top ten in the world ranking, and Rory McElroy is our betting favorite at minus excuse me a plus six point fifty. He was plus seven hundred a couple of days ago, but then he went out and won the Scottish Open, so you know, the
odds come down a little bit. Then in twenty fourteen bow Rory won the British excuse me, the Open Championship and the PGA, his third and fourth major championships on top of the world. He had just turned twenty five years old. So I wanted to asked you in twenty fourteen, after Rory had won those two majors back to back, how many more majors would Rory have in his pocket before the British Open return to Hoylake in twenty twenty three,
what would you have guessed. I think my over under would have been like five and a half.
Yeah, I don't know if I would have been that high because majors are extremely difficult to come by, as we've found out that Rory doesn't have any since then, and so I mean I would have expected at least two or three more that would be a reasonable number. It's been a long time. It's been almost a decade. I know, Maze, it's crazy to think that Rory's now in his early thirties and it's still sitting on the
same number. And I really will want to base this going back to two thousand and six when Tiger won. That was the first tournament he played in after the death of Earlwood's his father, and that was an emotional victory where he lapped the field. He absolutely obliterated everybody in true Tiger fashion. Rory was in a dogfight with a lot of great players in twenty fourteen, and I think that it's gonna take a meteoric performance like Tiger from Rory to repeat at Hoylake.
Yeah, I mean, what do you think of that at these odds? I mean, like, we know Rory good form lately obviously, and you know he's he's had a couple mirror misses, played well at the US Open, coming off and win at the Scottish. We've seen him like at times this year be you know, get wayward all of a sudden with his driver and the wedge play has been really inconsistent. But one of the more creative shot makers in the game, and I think Link's style golf
sort of helps him in that department. I don't know, how do you how do you feel about him at number plus six fifty?
I have mixed emotions and because how can you bet against him with the way he just performed at scott At the Scottish that was that was incredible. It was it was that was vintage Rory, where the driver was just on point, the wedges were he was he was doing chopped down wedges, he was hitting pitching wedges over two hundred yards with the wind. He was riding the wind,
working at left and right. That's Link style golf to a t. And there's the reason why he performed so well here last time at these odds at the same time, it's really short odds, and there's a lot of great players, a lot of great golfers that are just as good as Rory in this kind of event that are getting they're going to pay out a lot more. So I'm kind of mixed on it. I haven't decided. I'm kind of hoping that the Rory fervor kind of calms a bit before Thursday, but I'm not gonna hold my breath.
I'm probably going to get a little bit of skin in the game for Rory because I love to root for him, but it's the odds aren't great now.
The only other player in the field with odds shorter than ten to one are Scottie Scheffler. Is Scottie Scheffler. He's at plus seven hundred, comes in as the world number one, played well at in the Scottish Open, finished at minus ten five shots backer Rory. He was twenty first at Saint Andrews last year at the Open Championship, in eighth at Royal Saint George's the year before and yeah, so pretty good foreman, and showed his you know, links
medal at North Barrack this past weekend. So what do you think about Scheffler at plus seven hundred, again.
I don't think the odds are reflective of his chance to win. I kind of put him in more of that ten to twelve range myself if I'm I'm handicapped this tournament myself. Scheffler is playing at a B minus to C plus game for him, and of course that's still top five for the six tournaments in a row, top twelve for the last eighteen tournaments in a row. He's the best golfer in the world. The problem is
he isn't winning. And if I'm going to bet single digit odds on a guy winning without a great track record on links courses, Scotty is amazing, but his links course history is not as good as traditional course history. So I'm going to I'm going to fade Scotti Scheffler at his current odds of plus seven hundred, just because I think it's too short for him compared to again, a number of golfers in this next tier that are just as likely to win, if not more.
Let's talk about John Rahm for a second. Though he is at plus twelve hundred. He has played in six Open Championships and he has only had one top ten finish tying a Royal St. George's in twenty twenty one. He did finish eleventh at Royal Port Rush in twenty nineteen, but like he has not been in real peak form lately. In the spring he was tip top. I mean, rom just looked nearly unbeatable. Then not so much lately. So what do we think about him this week at Hoylak.
I think they hit my number here because twelve was a I mean that's pretty short or pretty long for a guy of his caliber, number two golfer in the world, getting nearly twice the payout for a win over Scottie Scheffler. The forum is concerning his history on link style courses is concerning, but John Ram is John ram and I think what we might run into is trying to fade him as if he's like Rory, where they had kind of the same issues the last few months before Rory
broke through. Rom is just one hot putter away from blowing the field away at any tournament he shows up to and a double digit John Rombett I think is perfect.
Yeah, you hope that putter gets hot, and we know that the putting is not always that challenging it opens, you're gonna get slower greens then you're used on the PGA tour. They are not the lightning fast greens we get over here in the States. And you know there's some undulation. You'll get the occasional putts where you have to deal with a mound in front of you or
something like that. But you know, if you're within reasonable distance of the whole, you're usually going to have a relatively flat putt on a lot of these greens.
So a lot of it comes down to three putt avoidance because the size of the green complexes is massive tree and so lag putting is very important and is as much as we've kind of harped on rom for not putting well recently, he's incredible latter incredible lag putter, and it's it seems like he struggles on faster greens and that won't be the case here. So I really do have high hopes for John Rahm in this tournament, despite the red flags against him, namely his shot shape.
His ball flight is a higher ball flight, and that's the same thing working against Scotty Scheffler in this tournament is he has to overcome his standard stock shot by being creative like Rory was that that was the kicker. Is Rory's one of the highest ball hitters out there, but you saw him flight the ball down when he
had to and he was great at it. We haven't seen Scotty or John Rom do that effectively at an Open championship before, so that that'll be an interesting tidbit to look for, is can they flight the ball with the precision that Rory does?
Yeah, wind does. Wind is not your friend if you are a high ball hitter and you know, even though the wind is not going to be howling this week, according to the forecast, there will be wind, So you know, being able to hit it at a lower trajectory's key. As you said, Bo, we've seen Rory do that. Whether Rom and Scotty can do it as a different story. All right, Before we continue, I just went to implore all of you to download the free Betting Pros app
for iOS or Android. You can follow experts, top rated betters, and betters on hot streaks to get instant notifications when new bets are placed. You can also customize your notifications by sports, so you only receive alerts for bets that interest you. And you can even limit the alerts you get to only the historically ROI positive markets of the
betters you follow. To take advantage of these features and more, download the Betting Pros app by visiting Bettingpros dot com, slash apps, or by searching for Betting Pros in the app store. All right, bo, you liked Cameron Smith at the US Open, and that was a very astute call. He had a great week at the LA Country Club. Cam is the defending Open champion, the world champion golfer,
having won at Saint Andrew's last year. The biggest weakness in his game driving accuracy, and that problem should be minimized somewhat on a roomy Links course. How do you feel about Cam at plus sixteen hundred this week?
He's my favorite. He's very simply put, he's the favorite. His style of play is perfectly catered for this type of event, which is why he won last year pretty convincingly. It's a shot maker's course. It's a course that demands creativity, planning and an immaculate short game. Well that's Cam Smith personified. He's as lethal of a golfer in the world. Inside
of one hundred and fifty yards through the green. If there's a pitching wedge or a sand wedge or a putter in this guy's hand, he is the best in the world. So I'm going to say Cameron Smith has a very good chance of going back to back this year, and at sixteen to one, which is up from fourteen to one, I will keep hitting that button because the mustachioed, mulleted ossi is for real.
Yeah, assuming he can keep those drives out of you know, gorse bushes and pot bonkers. I agree, It's just this. He is built for links golf and I like him a lot this week too. Brooks Koepka has fared well in strokes gained metrics at the British Open lately. He seems to have an affinity for links golf bo and he's been a big factor in majors this year and in recent years of course. Do you like him at plus two thousand.
It's it's a major, right, Yes, I'm betting on Brookspect. The dude wins at a forty percent clip in majors, so he's got a low piercing ballflight which is unique to him and Tiger Woods and a handful of other golfers. It's been it's been said around golfing circles that Brooks Koepka just has a different ballflight that can't be recreated by most human golfers. And it's no mystery that he's done well in an Open Championship. It's no mystery he's done well in majors in general. He is a gamer.
He rises to the occasion. Pressure does not affect him. That's that's all the things you look for. And a nice twenty to one line, which is kind of I can see a little live discount built in there where we're getting a little softer line because he's not on the PGA Tour. I love it. I mean, we've been talking about this is the fourth major. We've talked about the live discount and the betting lines, they all these.
The golfers are just as good as they were a year and a half ago before they left the BJ Tour, and for some reason they're getting less respect from the casinos now.
A couple of the sharp golf punters who I follow are keen on Victor Hoblin this week at plus two thousand and his previous Open Championship formbo tied for fourth at St Andrews in twenty twenty two, tied for twelfth at Royal Saint George's in twenty twenty one. You shook your head? Are you not as into Hoblin this week?
He's He's not the kind of golfer I'm looking for. At those odds, I had Victor Peg just twenty five to thirty to one. He's just too short. His ballflight is very high, left to right soft. If there's any wind at all in this tournament, Victor is gonna be in the miscut vicinity because his short game, although improved, is definitely still the weakness of his game.
Yeah all not known for sterling, not known for sterling bunker play.
As good as a ball striker as he is, he will contend if the condition stayed tame. But it's England. It's the weather, especially Liverpool, England on the west coast of England. It's the weather can change in an instant and that twelve minle hour win could turn into thirty in just a matter of a half hour, and I think if that happens, Victor Hovlin is going to be in dire straits now.
Ricky Foller is plus twenty two hundred. He finished tied for second behind Rory Back at Hoylake in twenty twenty four or excuse me twenty fourteen, and yeah, I mean Fowler was sitting at plus eighteen hundred odds just a few days ago. Then he closed with a four over par seventy four at the Scottish Open and his odds balloon to plus twenty two hundred. So a little extra value there about is that. Yeah, so you're intrigued, you might be buying the dip on Ricky.
I'm more than intrigued. I was more than willing to bet him at eighteen and now I'm ecstatic to bet him at twenty two. Again, low ballflight, can shape the ball right to left, left to right, an immaculate approach player. His putting, his lag putting specifically is spot on. This is exactly who you're looking for in this range and his course history really is just icing on the cake.
Let's talk about a group at plus twenty two hundred. Also Xander Schoffley, Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood all right, can't lay. Terrific player. Not the best track record recently in Open championships. Xander Schoffley in five previous Open Championships twenty six they're better four times, highlighted by a tie for second at Carnoustie in twenty eighteen. So of Shoffley, Hatton, can't lay Fleetwood, Are any of these guys appealing to you? Bo?
All of them except for Can'tley are. This is a loaded part of the betting slip. This is there. I don't love Can't Lay on any Link style course or Open championship. His game just doesn't fit it. He's great, he's an outstanding golfer, but this is just it flies in the face of his style, and we've seen that bear out in the results. But Fleetwood, Englishman, Tyrol Hatton Englishman, both with perfect game setups for this exact event. Xander is kind of a throwback. He's kind of that same
mold of golfer, just from southern California. He just happens to have a game that is similar to Fleetwood and Hatton. So I really like him too. But Tyroll Hatton, I just have this weird feeling that Terrel Hatton is going to blow his top, but in a good way. I think he's because his third round, his third round at the Scottish was incredible and you saw him hit some really amazing shots and his Sunday wasn't good enough to
push through for the wind. But he was knocking on the door this last week and I think that he's just right there on the doorstep of winning a major.
Yeah, you said blow his top in a good way. We've seen Yrol Hatton blow his top in not such good ways many times before. That's what that's my hang up with him, though. I don't know if I can take him in a major with his demeanor. He's just too easily rattled, it seems like.
So it's usually with himself.
Yeah he is, uh, you know, he'll, he'll. He's always second guessing the role of Potts. I would not want to be Yroll Hatton's caddy. Put it that way. One more guid to my real quick bo Jordan speF plus three thousand has not been in great form as of light, and missed the cut at the Scottish Open, which you don't like to see, but his British Open track record is pretty impressive. He won at Royal Birkdale in twenty eighteen, was second at Royal St George's in twenty twenty one.
He's finished top ten in five of his nine Open Championship appearances, and his worst finish is forty fourth. What do you think about speed?
That's a really nice soft line for a guy of his caliber, especially a guy who when he's stateside can't find the fairway with the map. But these fairways are fifty sixty yards wide. Even Jordan Speith can find the fairway here, and and that lines up really well for his world class short game, world class on short approach, and of course a very good live cutter. I think Jordan Speith will contend here in thirty to one is a little softer than I expected.
All right, before we go on, I just want to ask all of you too, so subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel and comment below on this video, because when you do, you could win a free upgrade to Betting Pros Premium. Whether you're looking for access to exclusive picks, top rated player props, or custom analysis of your own betting performance, Betting Pros Premium has the tools to help you cash more bats, plain and simple. Don't want to
wait for the giveaway. Sign up today at bettingpros dot com, slash upgrade and start betting smarter, not harder, all right, bo A couple more guys to talk about. I'm interested in DJ Dustin Johnson at plus three thousand five top ten finishes at the Open. He was tied for six at St Andrews last year and tied for eighth at Royal St George's in twenty twenty one. Hits it a long way and a really nice short game, really nice touch around the greens. What do you think about DJ?
DJ is the same prototype player as Rory, almost exactly the same in every way, except he's getting three times softer odds because of his status on the Live tour. This is the smash bet of the tournament because you don't have to put as much money. You don't have to lay down as much money to get a good return on an outright bet for DJ. A top five or top ten, those are all sporting very good odds. So I would be betting a trifecta with DJ this week with an outright top five and top ten bets.
Wyndham Clark defending US Open champion ball plus forty five hundred. Decent showing at the Scottish His first Open championship, though, was just last year at Saint Andrews and he finished seventy six. Any hope of Wyndham Clark going back to back in majors.
No, this as good as a scrambler as he is, as good as he's been this season. I think he's just going to have one of those off weeks. This is just forty five, is right, It's the right number for him. I just don't see it fitting with the field here being so strong, with the field here mostly having more experience at Royal Liverpool itself, this is a very experienced field. Lots of these guys both played in
six and fourteen. There's a dozen players in this field that played in both of the Open Championships since two thousand and six at Royal Liverpool. So this is a very sage field and Wyndham Clark's inexperience at this exact type of event is not going to bode well for him, especially when he has that high ball flight type thing where he's relying a lot on his driving and his putting, but his approach game has been erratic.
Are there any long shots or longer shots you like? Ball on? I'm just gonna mention one and maybe you can comment on. Adam Scott finished tants at Hoylake in both two thousand and six and twenty fourteen, and he just seems to be a, you know, a factor in
a lot of open championships. Like he's not a top player anymore, but he's still involved, Like he's still a high profile player, I guess, And I'm kind of intrigued by him this week at plus eight thousand, that just seems like inviting odds to take a long shot on a guy with this much pedigree.
It's the same Adam Scott that's been on the PGA Tour for twenty two straight years. Yeah, I think I think that's a great, great call. Yea, how hard it is to stay on pg tour status along that that's pedigree beyond pedigree. So yes, Adam Scott, that at those odds is it's a very smart bet.
Any other long shots you.
Like Jason Days at ninety to one, I'll kind of glaze over him. But if the conditions get really difficult, Kirk Kittyama at won eighty to one, he buckles down. I don't think he can hang with the with the winning score if the conditions are team. But if the conditions get really nasty. Kirk Kittyama is a grinder that can really put the clamps down and make a lot of pars. And then my deep deep shot. You're gonna love this one at three hundred and fifty to one
the German Yanick Paul. This guy's game is very underrated.
Yanick Paul. Interesting. How old is Yanick Paul? The young guy?
Younger? Oh yes, all right?
Interesting, all right, I'm gonna have to do a little more.
Finished very well at the Scottish you might have seen him right at the top of the leaderboard.
All right, plus three fifty like three hundred and fifty thousand. Interesting, all right, both betting cards. What do you got on yours? Right now? Let's run through both of ours?
All right? So my favorite cam Smith, my mid range DJ thirty to one that's smash, and then I'm going with a little bit of a touch play on. See. I'm kind of back and forth here because there's such a big group here. I like, I'm gonna go and just call it right now. I'll probably changed my mind. But Yrrell Hatton Wow. And then Jason Day in ninety to one.
Interesting, Yeah, I don't I don't have anything on Rory. I don't have anything on Scottie. I don't have anything on rom right now, but I do have that's to win on Cam Smith at plus sixteen hundred, Brooks keep get at plus two thousand, Ricky Fowler plus twenty two hundred. It's been such a nice build up for Fowler this season and this would be just a perfect capstone for
his comeback season. And I love his solid track record at Open Championships, his affinity for links golf, Jordan Speith at plus three thousand, DJ, who we both talked about before, and Adam Scott. So yeah, I like all those guys. And I also want to bet. Uh want to bet speed top ten as well, DJ top five, Fowler top five on top of that, and you know there's a chance I'll put down a small bet on a long
shot or two. I haven't id'd anyone just yet. One more time about what's the name of this German fella I should be looking into. Paul Janick, Paul perhaps the next Bernhard longer we're talking about.
Hey, I never know.
And that's gonna do it for the Betting Pros Open Championship preview, see bow, I got that one right, Open not British Open.
I want to thank you the Ohio State University.
Uh BO. I want to thank you for joining me once again. Be sure to follow bow mcbraer on Twitter for all sorts of golf wagering wisdom. His handle is at bo mc big Time. I'm Pat fitz Morris. You can find me on Twitter at fits underscore FF. Enjoy the Open Championship, everyone,