NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview (Ep. 150)

It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey p Joe Pisafia. And college football is officially done and in the books. It's time to turn our attention to the NFL playoffs now. And who better to talk about that with? And three times Super Bowl MVP Troy Aikman, But unfortunately he was unavailable, so we're stuck with Scott Bogman instead. Bogman,

I mean it was it was a boring game until the end of the third quarter.

Wasn't a good lawyer.

I mean, you know, Georgie's really turned it on, and you know, obviously with Jamison Williams going down for Alabama, that was really you know, to me, what kind of turned that game. Obviously didn't affect it for a little bit because Georgia was Georgia was playing that you know, conservative choking offense that you know, didn't get them anywhere until they let it until they started to let uh sets stetson Bennett sling it downfield, they weren't really getting

Well, it's time to make that money back. Now, that's what we're gonna do. And we're gonna start here talking about the Saturday games. And it's fun how it's structured. We get two games on Saturday, one three games on Sunday, in one game on Monday. So I kind of enjoy this. I like how it's kind of spread out a little bit. You know, I love the standalone games. I'm a big fan. So let's start here with the Raiders going to Cincinnati.

I'm pretty comfortable with Cincinnati. I think this is going to be their first playoff win since nineteen ninety one here because of what you said, I mean, Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase and t Higgins and Joe in this offense, they're going for no breaks, all gas, all out, so uh, Vegas. Vegas can win this game. This is not an impossible hill of climb for them. But what they have to do is they have to get after. They have to get after Burrow, because we know the weakness of the

The number on this one's forty nine. You think this is an over and under.

I'll take the under on the forty nine. I think that's a little high for a playoff game. You know, that's fair, that's fair.

I think that you know, everything equal.

I think this is going to be like a thirty five to ten game, twenty eight ten games, something like that. So I think since he gets going, they score early, they give it to Joe Mixon in the second half and kind of grind it out. And I just most playoff games that are you know, this is a bigger line for a playoff game, I think since he can cover. But I don't like that over too much, all right, if you probably just wouldn't mess with it, to be honest with you, So.

Well, even if you're if you're trending towards the under in this game, Joe Burrow's got you know, the alternate passing yard props. So you got on FanDuel here and I see something like Joe Burrow at two hundred and seventy five yards over under plus one twenty two. Would that be an under then for you in this game? But Joe Burrow's been putting up some huge numbers here lately.

He has been two seventy five is such a great line. It's such a good number. You know, obviously they know what they're doing. I would I would take the under because I think if Joe Burrows throwing for three hundred and whatever yards, you might not be winning this game going away. It might be close at the end, so or you may be playing catch up. So I'll take the under because I think since he wins going away.

All right, let's touch on the wide receivers real quick too, Jamar Chase seventy yards over under on that prom.

I okay, So I know it's weird that I just took the under on Burrow, but I'll take the over on Chase because Chase can get this in.

It play right, yeah, one player right right exactly.

And you know the one thing I won from Georgia was I hit the over on Pickins uh, you know, receiving yards because it came out of thirty four and a half and he got that on one throw.

So I would take though over on Chase yards there last one.

Here on the other side of this game with the Raiders Hunter Renfro sixty plus yards receiving uh one four is the number plus one?

I'd hammer that.

No, I'd hammer that one because I think I think the Raiders are going to be losing in this game, and uh and Mike Hilton versus Hunter Renfro is going to be a good matchup.

But I'll take hunt Renfro in that.

Well, it's a sliding scale, so I'll ask you this, when it goes to seventy yards you get plus one eighty eight, would you pound that as well? Would you just keep going there and tim fade a little bit?

Yeah, I would.

I say seventy is probably that's about what i'd want to bet. I don't want to go much higher than that on a bet, so uh but yeah, I think I would take that too.

All right?

And would you lock in Darren Waller now for anything minus just because it's not a chance.

Yeah, nothing for Darren Waller from me, No, thank you.

On but I'm saying like that any minus ones on the board now before they.

Oh yeah, I mean, if I can take the under on his yards unless it's like if his yards are below forty, I probably wouldn't take it. But if they're you know, fifty five or something to hammer that.

Well, you could set it anywhere from twenty five all the way up until about seventy five, so you have some options there though. Yeah, that's why I like about the alternating minds there, where you can kind of select choose your own adventure, I like to call them basically. So it's always a good time. All right, let's get to my squad here, the New England Patriots traveling to Buffalo's be the third time in six weeks these teams are going to face off against each other division rivals.

Yeah?

I do too, And this is going to be a grinded out classic AFC East battle. The weather three degrees and partly cloudy in Buffalo, so I don't know why anyone will want to attend this game, but.

They will be shirtless. You know, they will be shirtless more.

Of es I count believe it, dude. Being a question in the South, I just don't understand.

With it being so cold, they're obviously going to be a lot of running football. As you said, that's what the Patriots do best. They're one seventy two on the money line. If you want to get involved in this game at all, is that the place to do it? Just Pat's outright, but keep it close. Maybe they went on a field goal and a fluky player or something

Yeah, I mean if you're just straight up looking for money and taking a risk, then sure. But for me, there's no way I'm betting on a rookie quarterback going on the road in a weather.

Game to win his first playoff game. I'm just not doing it.

So for me, I'm gonna take Buffalo kind of going away. I think it's more like the second game than it is like the first game, because yes, we have weather, we don't have crazy you know, high wind. We got four mile an hour wins here. So I think just the Bills are clicking. They're coming in at the right time in the playoffs. Like you said, they're now no longer one dimensional just throwing short passes for Josh Allen. Stevin Singletary has really taking that role and run with it,

You'd never want to count Bill Belichick out.

But I just I'm not gonna take my money and put it on the back of Mac Jones in his first road playoff game.

No thank you.

All right, Let's talk about the individual lines here on this game. He got Josh Allen passing yards a two forty three and a half, Mac Jones at two to four and a half, both at minus one fourteen? Is the number there any love for either of these numbers on the over or under? Two forty three and a half two a four and a half for mac Jones forty I.

Think I might take the under on Mac Jones, even though I do it's happy to be losing it in uh. I think what you want to do in this game to make Mac comfortable is run the ball to start. So I think you get a first half of a lot of running, and then the second half, you know, Mac Jones starts to pass.

Bill Belichick knows that that's what they expect.

Him to do. So maybe it's the opposite, but I kind of like the under on Mac Jones. I probably wouldn't want to mess with that Josh Allen line because it's very good, But if I had to pick one, I would definitely go with the over because they are a past first team.

These two are really intriguing to me, Devin Singletary a fifty nine and a half for his rushing prop and Damian Harris at fifty eight and a half. I like the over on both of these specially now trend of Singletary getting twenty three carries here back to back weeks. That feels like something that's been sustainable for.

Them right exactly, and it's not.

You know, you don't even have to be good with Devin Singletary, which kind of makes me more nervous about him. I think I like the Harris line better because, like I said, I think you get him established, you run him to put Mac Jones in a comfortable position to throw the ball.

You know, you suck those linebackers up.

A little bit, bring those dbs up a little bit, you know, run a lot of stuff off play action. So I think that Devin Singletary doesn't have to be effective. You just have to keep doing it. And I think that's the problem that the Bills had earlier in the season, was they weren't running the ball effectively. So they just gave it up and said, all right, Josh Allen will run everything. And they won some games like that, so

So I expect those book to go over all.

Right, let's move on to Sunday's games, and we'll start with the Tampa Bay Bucks, the defending, reigning undisputed champions eight and a half point favorites in their home stadium taking on the Philadelphia Eagles. The over runner for this game is forty six. Now Bogs Tom Brady certainly very familiar with this spot home game. For Tom Brady, to me, the eight and a half feels about right. In fact, I think that they're going to dominate this football game.

It's absolutely a trap game. I don't really.

I think the matchup is perfect for the Bucks in this game, which is why I'll take them. But they're limping in on offense right now. I mean, you know, Abe quitting didn't just wasn't just a side show. It hurt Zero Grayson who took his spot, is banged up right now.

Now.

They just signed Downtown John Brown to their squad, so uh, they are definitely limping in that they should get four netback.

We'll see.

But the side of this game that is gonna make everything go here is gonna be the Eagles offense against the Bucks defense. You have the number one rushing offense versus number one rushing defense here. So I just think that the Bucks match up well physically with the Eagles because of this run defense, So I think it'll play closer. I'll definitely take the under in this game because of what's going on with Tampa Bay's offense right now, plus

Brady, So you're confident in Tampa wins, but you're less confident number.

I mean, if that's the case, I would take.

If you want the eagle side of this, No, I don't want it because look, it's once again it's he's not a rookie, but it's Jalen Hurts first playoff game, and it's on the road. It's against the champs, you know, so I think you're gonna see them get frustrated and start throwing the ball.

With Jalen Hurts.

The guy can't put it in the air thirty five times, he'll get picked off. So I think that's what we're gonna get in this game is I think it plays a little tight until late, maybe late third quarter, early fourth quarter, where some big mistake is made and then that's where Tampa Bay takes advantage and starts to roll.

So for me, I'm taking Tampa Bay.

I would take the under here too, because I think it's going to take a little bit for Tampa Bay to get going and Philly's gonna be frustrated offensively early in this game.

As well, so give me the under in this one too.

All right. Tom Brady's number is two to seventy six and a half for passing total. You think that's an over and underbond.

I under for sure. Yeah, you don't want to passing that much in this game.

I imagine the tight ends are going to be incredibly busy this game though to Philadelphia and not good against the tight ends. So not just Gronk but maybe break down getting some action. Yeah, and Jalen Hurts two three and a half. That's an interesting one too, because you're writing the script where they're behind or they have to throw the ball more than they want to throw the football. That becomes interesting one as well. But I would lean towards the ender on that one also, Box.

I'll take the over on it. The secondary is probably the one weakness for Tampa Bay.

The healthier on the secondary, they've.

Gotten healthier, but I don't know if i'd say they got good. So I would take the over on that just because I think it's early frustrations, and I think going into this game you have to kind of game plan around that too. We know it's going to be frustrating, so let's start to pass the ball, you know a little bit more early, So I'll take the over just because that that's a low number.

You said it was two of four.

Yeah, four.

I'll take the over on that for sure.

All right. Next one here is the four to thirty Eastern game the San Francisco forty nine Ers, coming off another victory against the Rams. Who called that last week on the show right here on Betting Pros me with Dan Harris. That's right. I told you, Dallas believe in the Rams. You were on there too. I'm dude, I mean the Rams. We'll get to them in a second. I'm gonna tease that we'll get to them in a second.

But this one's funny.

This one to me feels like, you know, not every favorite's going to win. We know that when it comes to this round of the playoffs, there's going to be probably two at least that kind of go sideways. To me, this is the first one. Dallas Cowboys certainly from a defensive standpoint, and played much better this year towards the second half, really starting to come on. Michael Parsons has been a star. They've created turnovers, all that stuff is great.

To me.

The number here is Dallas with a three point favorite right here at home, as one would think, and I think the line is telling you there's some fear here because typically speaking, that's your everything is very close lined. So the home team gets the three and that's your standard, and that means to me, I'm betting the San Francisco this game, and San frans is gonna win outright as a plus one thirty six in the money line. The number is fifty one and a half on the over under.

Yeah, I'm not gonna trust Jimmy g I just can't do it.

So oh I don't trust him. Yeah, look Cowboys and I trust them equals.

This is the closest well this to me, this is the second closest game. I think the Monday night game is the closest game, but this is the second closest game here. But I'm just gonna take the home team. And I know, look the Cardinals winning and upset the Cowboys the other day for sure, But you I don't know that we've seen one complete game from Jimmy G

First.

I know that Dallas is not playing their absolute best football, but putting it on Philly I think gave them a lot of confidence. And I think it was the right move to play all their starters in that game. So the defense is going to get back a lot of pieces too. Obviously, Parsons coming back off the COVID list and DeMarcus Lawrence just seems to get better every single week.

And nobody has been more critical of Jimmy Garoppolo than me, and rightfully.

Well maybe maybe maybe because he's a Niners fan. He is a Niners fan, and.

That's absolutely fair. But I have nobody's been more critical than than Welsh than me. But at the same time, this Cowboys team feels very incomplete to me, the way they're coming into this, and it's just something about it. I feel like all the momentum, and you know this,

You look drop on the Tennessee though, but a drapped dropped the one at home to Arizona. So look, Tennessee is the one seed. But you know that's I rolling. Yeah, all in the first half. You know they eaten two they do uh you know that that. Uh, it's just they're a different team, you know. So I don't know, man, I I don't see how San Francisco goes in and gets a win against Dallas.

Well, but you and I both know that something crazy is gonna happen here this weekend. It's going to be more than one. It's never just all the way through, all the favorites win.

It's never laughing the next game.

Well, maybe it is, Maybe it is. We'll get to that in a second. Let's talk about a couple of props from this game. The rushing prop for Ezekiel Elliott is forty seven and a half. He has struggled to reach fifty yards in a game very often since at least a bye. He's only reached that number three times. So this number, though, is perfect. Forty seven and a half. It is right there. Would you touch it or would you go over? Under? What would you do here? Before and a half?

Touch it? Gun?

To my head, I would go the over because Like I said, I do think that San Francisco makes a couple of mistakes and maybe we see some grinding in the second half from the Cowboys. So I would take the over gun to my head, but I won't touch it.

No thanks, all right, Deebo. Samuel has a twenty eight and a half rushing prop and as far as his receiving prop is sixty and a half, do you prefer one to the other of the sixty and a half or the twenty eight and a half.

It's just hard to know.

Man, I was right.

Did they have a total yards for him? I think take the total yards on?

Well, here you go.

I mean that's pretty hes gonna add him eighty five and a half.

Five and a half. Let's say the combination.

Over over for Debo at any point. The dude is an absolute stud. He's better than even I thought he was going to be in the NFL coming out, and he is just and.

We all liked him. I remember.

I told I was mad.

I was like, man, I can't believe you know your team gets this guy because I want my team to get him.

But he is an absolute stud. Dude, he's so good.

So I would take the over I just they're gonna use him, but are they gonna pass because they've had games where they just run him.

They've had games where they just passed to him.

So uh, he's gonna get a little bit of everything in this game.

So I just I would rather go with the total yards for him.

It's a fantastic point, by the way. Go wait, or find the all purpose yard prop for him, because that isn't much even if it goes to ninety or something like that. Over on that as well. All right, here you go. Pittsburgh at Camp Kansas City is twelve and a half point favorites in this one huge number. The Chiefs took it to the Steelers a few weeks ago. I don't need to tell Boggin that he's well aware

Thank you Rangers.

You had to be sitting there on Sunday night just in awe. Right, I mean, could you believe that if I told you three weeks ago the Steelers are making the playoff? You that told me I was crazy? Right?

Yeah? For sure?

I look, you know, big ups to Jacksonville big ups to Vegas and you know, I it always it always reminds me of a Herm Edwards press conference where the Jets snuck into the playoffs, right, is the same way the Steelers snug in. And one of the one of the idiot writers, said, do you feel bad for the team that didn't make it? He's like, we won and they lost. No, I don't feel bad for them at all.

Oh, it's twelve and a half. It is gigantic. There's no doubt about that.

And I know they lost by twenty six and that was without Kelsey, Right, I get it, But you know the defense, that's.

Even more reason to do it. I feel like because that it's such an obvious anti logic, right, where if you follow betting and if you're somebody who's into this, you know that that's all that stuff.

You throw it out, fade the public, all that.

Right, that's a big load of crap, right, that's never going to come to fruition. But yeah, I actually like the Steelers side of this game too. With a twelve and a half, I think it gives you more opportunities because the Chiefs have been inconsistent. I mean, let's be honest. They had a moment there where they were starting to feel like a clicking on all cylinders, and then you had that game against the Bengals and to me, all

Yeah, and you know, I've seen more than enough Ben Roethlisberger retirement party flyers hosted in Kansas City so everybody can quit sending me those.

But yeah, I think Kansas City probably wins this game too.

They're at home. You know, they are a better team than Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh gave up more rushing yards than any other team in the NFL this year, So Darrell Williams probably gonna have a big game again here for them. I know Tyreek is coming in less than one hundred percent, but they get Kelsey back, so it's fine your mismatch. And Kelsey didn't even play in that game where they blew out the Steelers already in Kansas City, so not

You know it's a five?

A five is enormous, you know, But I mean, look, the playoffs have been rife with bigger upsets than this one over the history.

As as that plus eight fifty on the Jaguars last week against the Colts.

But we love me some Jaguars, right, Josh Allen. Gotta get me a Josh Allen jersey next, I know. But yeah, man, I think, uh, you're probably safe if you bet Kansas City.

But I will be rooting for my Steelers, of course.

So look, I just feel like the twelve and a half is a very big number here and and once again, all the pressures on Kansas City. The Steelers are like Dante from Clerks and I was supposed to be here today. So as far as I'm concerned, it's gonna be the Pittsburgh Steelers playing with house money, and I feel like that's fast and loose. It's it's gonna be a different Steeler team, I think this time around facing the Chiefs.

Because she's banged up. I mean, they might get Juju back to just open up his window today.

So let's we'll see.

Well it is, I'll tell you after seeing James Washington play, it's God's fair better, all right.

A couple of props I want to throw at your box before we shive into the next one here. Patrick Mahomes two eighty and a half over under in the passing yards.

He won't need to throw that many.

So Ben Roethlisberger twenty sorry too to twenty six and a half.

H take the over because it should be down the whole game.

This one feels like a slam dunk to me. Deontay Johnson sixty and a half receiving yards over.

I'm so you get if you take that prop, you're gonna be frustrated because he'll get He'll catch a fourteen yard ball, run back seven yards at one point.

Yeah, he does every single game, So but yeah, go the over on.

Would you take the under on the Tyreek Hills seventy and a half right now?

Yeah, he's hurt so and you know if they get up, they won't be throwing him the ball, So yeah, I take the under on that.

All right, let's move on to Monday night. You've got the Arizona Cardinals at the Rams. The Rams three and a half point favorites. Just like I told you about that other line with San Francisco, this is the same thing I'm feeling on this one, which is there's no confidence in the Rams, and why should there be. The Rams don't have a home field advantage. That's a very big deal in the playoffs. The Rams continue to drop games that they have in hand. And I'm not saying

You talk about two teams that are backing in to the playoffs. These teams have been awful recently. I mean, the Rams just barely beat the Ravens without anyone in their secondary and with Matthew with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Cup and OBJ they are not clicking on offense at all. The Cardinals could have won this division and gotten themselves a home game, and they lost to the Seahawks at home thirty eight to thirty. So it's who wants to be more pathetic in this game, the Rams or the Cardinals.

All right, that is very fair looking for right now. Props on this game are still not released as the time we're recording this, so it's getting hard and hard to get props early. They really pop up later. But yeah, just for fun, because you know, I think I did this with you last year. If Nada I did it on another show. They all run together eventually. Of course, if you recall, I did two weeks in a row where I got the entire playoff slate parlay correct. So

And you know what that yes for me?

That works for me. Hey man, I did this last year, won a couple grand doing it. I'm telling you right now, you know that two of these games at least are gonna go sideways. That's the nature of this beast. But I don't think more than two bocks. I feel like it's really that Rams Cardinals game and that Dallas forty nine Ers game. At the end of the day, Like, it is really a tough sell for me to think that the Bengals are gonna lose to the Raiders. After all,

Yeah, I mean I would love to see the Raiders win and I'll be pulling for him, but yeah, I think since he wins, and obviously, you know, no one in the world is picking Pittsburgh, so I get it.

Yeah, fair enough, fair enough. Make sure you're heading over to bettingpros dot com for all of your lines, and again, all the consensus lines are there, so you can find any sort of little half point here or there somewhere else. That's what Betting Pros is able to do. In fact, there's some spots here where Betting Pros and consensus number is four on that Cardinals game, but fandles at three and a half. So very you know, every little bit helps, So make sure you pay attention to that over at

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