Hey there everyone. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It is time for our early look at next week's lines, and with me today to break it all down is Andrew Kyley, a senior publishing editor It Covers. You can find him on Twitter at Covers Underscore. Kaylee. That is c. A. L. E. Y. Andrew, Thanks for coming back on the show. How you doing.
I'm doing very well. Thanks for having me back. I'm excited.
Yeah, we had a great time talking earlier this year, and I'm really happy to have you on for what I think might be the most difficult Monday show of the entire year. With the trade deadline just around the corner, I think some of the lines may swing you wildly.
Well.
Look, it shows how much faith I have in you personally to want you to be on the Yeah, it is a lot of pressure, but I know you're going to deliver. Look, we've already seen some you know, we'll talk about it. With the Joe Flacco injury that you know, Broncos Brown Blind has swung wildly, which you know goes to show you, know, when you've got essentially a four point swing when you lose Joe Flacco, that really shows
you the quality of the backup quarterback. But we will get into that and every other game on the Week nine slate. Now we're going to be using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. Unless this is your first time listening, you know that consensus odds are an aggregation of the odds that are available on the market. As always, there are going to be differences in almost every sports book, so shop around for the best odds.
And if you ever want to see how any of the top sports betting experts are leaning on any given bet at any given time, Betting pros dot Com is going to show you that too. All right, Andrew, let us not waste any time. Let's dive right in here with the forty nine Ers at the Cardinals on Thursday night. Right now, the line is at forty nine ers minus ten. When I first looked ahead, it was seven and a half.
The over unders at forty four and a half. Now, the forty nine ers come off an absolutely dominant performance against the Anthers on Sunday. I was certainly one of the many who liked the Panthers getting anywhere between five and six. Emmanuel Sender's already proven he's worthy worth the addition with the touchdown, but really it's the first time they showed something with the running game since Kyle Yuschek went down. Tevin Coleman scores three touchdowns on the ground.
Matt Rida dealing with an ankle injury a little bit, but sounds like he's going to be okay. The defense remains outstanding. As for the Cardinals A Nick Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, it's okay. All yeah.
They had well, especially yesterday they were just really all over Kyle Allen and on the.
Other side of the ball, Cardinals continue to struggle in the red zone a little bit. They make the trade today for Kenyan Drake, so he's likely going right into the fire. David Johnson is almost certainly going to miss this game. Chase Edmonds is out for multiple weeks, so it's almost certain that Drake is going to get the start here. For me, I'm a little less worried about the impact when running backs get traded, although it's a
super short week so who really knows. But much bigger deal from you when receivers get traded, so Drake should be able to get back in. He's a good pass catcher. That's gonna help because they're going to play in from behind. The defense is a little better with Patrick Peterson back, but overall it's certainly difficult to see them winning the game. So how do you feel right now with the line currently at forty nine ers minus ten on the road to the Cardinals with an over under at forty.
Four and a half. If you want them, I'd say go after them now, Like I don't see it getting any and the number going back towards the Cardinals' favor before kickoff. Maybe Peterson gets traded. I know they haven't said much about Peterson, but he could be gone too before the game, so that would be a big issue as well.
I honestly, I don't understand the trade, not that you know, not to get into it too much, but I don't really get it. I mean that you know, the Cardinals are kind of hanging in their record wise because they've beaten up on some light teams. But yeah, why are you trading for Kenyan Drake? I mean, I don't like
pick up a guy off the Street. You know, they had Alfred Morris, they had Zach Zentner, Like, why give up any draft capital for a guy when you have David Nnsen for the future, Unless I could mean David Johnson is seriously.
Worse than it's correct, then they're letting on. I don't know how much power does Cliff Kingsbury have there as well, that's a question. I know the GM there hasn't made the most sound decisions there the last few years, but I don't know. It's it's hard to have faith in both of them. It seems. I really liked the way the Coldinals were playing last weekend'st the Saints up until Kingsbury decided to go for it on that really weird.
Hey, he'd do it again, he'd just call a better play, that was what he said today. So I don't know what to make of it.
I don't I don't know. The defense played pretty well, like you said, Peterson's back Chandler Jones has played pretty well the last few weeks. But I just I can't have any faith. And like you said about the Niners, everyone's everyone's rolling. Coleman is rolling. Sanders looks like a great fit, like there's there's no I can't give you a good reason to take the Cardinals unless it gets I don't know.
They're gonna Look, look, this has moved significantly because I'm sure everybody is pounding pounding the forty nine ers at this point. Thursday games are always a little difficult because you never know how team is going to respond right to the lack of rest and everything like that. This certainly is a game where the forty nine ers should have it well in hand at ten. I mean, they're just begging you right now to take the Cardinals. I honestly,
I mean, you said you'd take it now. I could see it getting past the key number, just because I could see. I don't know if this number is enough to get better is to be like, yeah, now I trust the Cardinals at this point.
They just you know, so you know, people love that that undefeated as long as the team is not the Patriots. People love like the public loves like that undefeated storyline. Yeah they're also not has been a really good bet this year too, at five and two eight's it probably should be six and one ats. Yeah, that Washington game.
The Monsoon game, I know, that was one of my picks the nine and a half. I was all over it.
Well, if you it would have probably cashed if not for that monsoon.
So I don't think we could say probably. I think that's a definite cash right there.
Yeah, well you can feel better about your pick then.
You know, that's exactly what my boss said. He was like, you know, it was a good process. I'm like, that does not make me feel.
Any feel better about this.
But anyway, I think in the end, at this line, I don't think either one of us feels comfortable at minus ten either way. Really, I don't really know if it's going to move. I mean it's moved significantly. I think it's going to be right around here. But this is not a game either at the over under or the line that I am particularly targeting. Let's move on here to the Texans at the Jaguars. It's currently Texans minus three. It was Texans minus one and a half
at the look a headline when I saw it. The over unders at forty seven. The Texans survive against the Raiders, a close game. They do lose JJ Watt to a torn peck. You know, I don't know, I don't know. I don't know how much of a difference that's going to make. I mean I didn't. To me, it didn't seem like what was making that much of an impact. But of course it is a loss otherwise, kind.
Of just g and they they they haven't gotten to the quarterback all year long. Right, as much as he isn't the guy that he has been in the past, you still have to account for him. And that's still a loss for them, and that could mean good news for minshew Mania.
Yeah. I look, he came back, you know, in prime fashion this weekend against the Jets. I believe you threw for three touchdowns. And I mean that wasn't a competitive game that the Jaguar sacked Sam Darnold eight times. I don't really know if you can take anything from it, just because the Jets are in such disarray here.
So look, we can get into that later.
Yeah, we will never talk about that as a Jets fan, I am scrapping it from the show. But so here we've got the Texans now laying three again. This has moved I liked it when it was Texans laying one and a half. I think I felt relatively comfortable with them at the key number of three. I'm not really certain how great I feel in the over UNDERD forty seven, any reaction to that.
So this is a London game. Remember this is we get another all day football day this week, so it's the nine o'clock game. This is theres the Jags seventh straight season playing in London, and I think there has to be some sort of advantage to that. Houston has never done the London trip, and look at teams like Chicago, who's staff and never done that before, and they were like, oh, let's just go Friday. Let's let's see how that goes.
Such a great point, such a great point.
And then they lose to Oakland and the Bears just haven't looked the same since.
For and Oakland, by the way, went out early in the week, right, Yes, that was it. And I remember thinking about that game and being like, man, this looks like such a spot for the Bears given the spread. And I think I was probably under selling the Raiders to be fair, because they have played a little better, particularly offensively, But that when I saw that, I was like, why are you going out so late? I mean, that's that's off.
I was shocked. There's a huge Bears fan in our office and we had a big, big debate about it, and he's like, no, no, no, this is fine. I was like, I don't know about that, and it didn't turn out to be fine. And I don't know the Texans I was trying to find it. I don't know their travel schedule. I don't know if they've left already
or if they're they're already. But I know the Jags always every year they're there for the full week and they get a climb, they get a climatized, they know the routine now, they're used to it, and there's got to be something said for that. They've before last last year's lost to Philly, they had covered in one straight in London. So I don't know, it's it's our Deshaun Watson's obviously an MVP candidate right now. Just that touchdown was in the same by the way.
Yeah, I mean that's how it works. You have one eye, you can do anything, Watson.
It's gonna be interesting because Houston's good against the run. The Jacks have done most of their damage things to our resurgent Leonard Fournett. Yeah, so it's for me if that goes, If it goes beyond a field goal. I think I think i'd lean towards the Jaguars, but right now I'm not. I'm not comfortable in uh in either way. I just I just I really think there's an advantage. The Jaguars have an advantage here that that that can't be overlooked.
It's a really great point about them going out there all the time. I mean, I flew out there to see the Jets play the Dolphins a couple of years ago, and I flew out into Friday and I was totally exhausted, So I mean that should really translate now. The one thing I look at here is I kind of like
the under. At least it not not a huge thing, but right I mean, I feel like the travel the teams aren't going to be super sharp, and that can cut both ways, but I feel like generally the first time they played it was a really close, low scoring game. I could kind of see the defenses coming out to
play here. So with the forty seven, which you know is fairly on the high side, my initial gut says, if you like, I kind of like the under, but not not strongly, but it's definitely something that that kind of calls out to me more than the spread. Let's move on here to the Bears at the Eagles. The Eagles are currently laying five, and the over under at forty four has not moved all that much. Look, the
Eagles really nice rebound win here against the Bills. They continue to get a little bit healthier overall, both in the secondary and Deshaun Jackson possibly coming back. I haven't seen anything on Miles Sanders other than everything was optimistic.
After he litistic, I heard Peterson say day to day okay, which obviously is a big He seems to be their best besides Jackson, of course, their big home run threat.
Now yeah, now I think Sprolls may return here. Not that he's the same caliber, but at least gives it that sort of, you know, explosive threat, at least in the passing game. Meanwhile, the Bears continued just to be completely lost. Mitchell Trubisky probably isn't all that far away from getting benched at this poor The run defense is not the same without a Keem Hicks. They did go heavy on the run offensively, which was kind of nice
to see. Dave Montgomery had a big game. Perhaps they'll try to do that but you can't really do that against the Eagles. That's their strength right the line. It's hard to run on them. So how do you feel here? Eagles laying five over under at forty four in Philadelphia?
I was actually seeing threes earlier today, so that jumped to me. Just all it says is nobody has any faith in Mitch anymore. And he's he is now Mitch again. He's reverted from Mitchell back to Mitch, like you said, like, I don't know when they closed the door on him, but it's that door is closing really fast. It's it's been bad. Like I said that that bear's been in
our office is having is having panic. Also the kicking game, obviously they should have won the game shut but they shouldn't be in that position against the Chargers team like that anyway, at home, they should not.
It seems this one to me, I can't see how you take the Bears here at minus five, right, I mean, I'm not saying you have to run out and take the Eagles and mine. You know why if you saw it at three, why it's now at minus five because everybody should have hit that, you know, with the Eagles at home, it's not even like the Bears get the home field advantage. The one thing I would think about here might be again the under, and I generally lean
towards the unders anyway. It's at forty four. That's not a huge number or anything, but you know, the Eagles kind of are notorious for starting really, really really slow during games. They take a while to get out there. The Bears just no matter what they do, they're not going to be dynamic offensively, and I think they probably said, you know, even though we lost the game, we were
able to move the ball effectively on the ground. I think you'd see them try to run it as best as I can, which is going to be tough against the Eagles. But you know, again I don't see either team. I know the Eagles put up a ton of points this weekend against the Bills, but I still kind of lean to one of these games where the Eagles win and probably would cover at minus five. I don't feel super strongly about it, but I think it's probably more
like an under. I don't know if you had any feeling on that part.
I like, I like the idea that the Bears can't do what they do best against this Eagles defense and that just is gonna lead to more low scoring and I have no faith in Mitchell Trubisky right now.
I think that's really what sums it up.
Right, Yeah, And I think that's what I think. That's what that early line move indicates as well. And I just it's it's hard. It's hard to see them scoring right now. Nobody has any confidence in the kicking game and the offense, and like you said, a team Hicks is out and that hurts. But the biggest problem I think with the defense is I think they rate sixteenth or something like that, like nothing you'd expect on in a DVOA against the rush, and that's just because they
can't sustain drives. They just they can't. They can't stay on the field. And by the second half, that team is gassed and they're just getting pushed around in a way you never thought would be possible against it with some of the players that are on that So.
You know, what probably is the play here, which you can't see, It would probably be like the first half under right, like it would be like you know, by the second half, the defense is gashed and there's going to be some scoring. The Eagles usually start slow so if anything, maybe the first half.
Under These two teams combined to score just over a touchdown in the first quarter per game, so even maybe even the first quarter under right would be a nice one as well.
Yeah, I like it, but this one's going to be interesting to see where it goes. I think the fact that it's moved already to minds five, I can't see it getting much higher than that. I mean, the Eagles have not played particularly well, but I don't really expect it to go down much more than maybe have a point, depending on how the money comes in.
If you like the Eagles once again, i'd take them now. It could get to six. So if you want to get them, get them at five, at five five and a half before it gets to that.
Yeah, the next game is a little difficult to analyze because most most players don't have lines on that at all. I haven't actually seen an over under on it. All right, it's the Viking set the Chiefs, So we'll just do this one really quickly. We don't know Trick Mahomes is going to play. My guess is he's still not. You know, initial estimates were at least three weeks. I know he's like superhuman or whatever.
I guess have a fun inside analysis for this. Actually, I did this exact thing to my knee this summer playing golf. I dislocated the kneecap, put the patella out of place. And I am no Patrick Homes, and I am not even anything close to an athlete, I would say, but I went, I went into the hospital, they set the knee, and I walked out of there that day and the doctor told me I could be playing golf within two to three weeks. And I am no athlete.
So so you're what you're saying is that Patrick Mahomes is coming back this.
Week and throwing five touchdowns as the MVP. Whatever.
That's fine. Well, the only thing we have here, just to be clear, is we have a couple We have one book, I think only one book on at least on betting pros, and that's Fandal and right now it's Vikings minus three, which is the only other line I've seen from a couple of other books. That's all we
have right now. So I assume that that is acting as if Mahomes is not going to play, because I what do you think out of curiosity the spread is going to be if Mahomes played, because to me at home and Arrowhead, I know the Vikings are flying high. They looked great. You know, they didn't they didn't dominate against the Redskins or anything like that, but they didn't have Adam Feelin, who should be back. Since they've opened up the passing game a little more, everything looks a
little bit stronger. The Chiefs are what they are, you know. And again, even against the Packers and I like them, in that game, they were still beat up defensively. I thought I thought Chris Jones might make it back for that game, but he didn't. They were beat up on the offensive line. If Mahomes played, this strikes me as a like, you know, a Chief's minus, you know, a small favorite for the Chiefs. I don't know how you feel about it.
I think it would almost swing a full touchdown.
To be honest, really through all those key numbers, Okay, I.
Think it would be somewhere around Chiefs minus three, if up to four, depending on how it was. That sort of thing. Okay, that's how That's how good I think he is, and that's how valuable I think he is to the spread. Right now.
I think that that is fair well, it doesn't really make much sense to talk about too much since we have literally one book on one will be over under or.
One quick thing. Sure, the Vikings have what they need to win there. They run the ball really well. The Chiefs really struggle stopping the run. Like look at Alex Aaron Jones last night. He had a field day against them. So if that is the number, they have the ability to cover it.
And even with Mahomes playing by the way, I mean, that is the book now out on how to beat them is to try to keep the ball away from him as much as he possibly can exactly, And as you said, the Vikings are sort of built to do that, so you know, wait and see. But for now we're going to kind of move on from that one because I don't think we can really give too much actionable advice without the lines. Let's move on here to the Redskins.
At the Bills Bills right now or minus ten. It was minus eleven, so I'm not sure if some money came in there on the Redskins. The over under is at thirty seven, still really low, up from the thirty six and a half. The Bills showed a few cracks here against the Eagles and what was admittedly an extremely windy day in Buffalo, so you don't want to take too much from it, and the.
Redskins plus an already terribly inaccurate quarterback.
I mean, you know, one of the reasons I got him was because they thought that he could, you know, throw through the wind, which he might be able to except for the fact that he's not accurate to begin with, So what does it matter. I think it's more like, well, you know, he could be an accurate, but who cares because everybody's going to be an accurate. I guess Redskins they look quasi competent with case Keenum under center, but
he is dealing with a concussion. He is still in the protocol as of right now, so we don't really know. This is obviously a completely different story if Dwayne Haskins plays. I imagine you're going to see the spread jump significantly if it sounds like he's going to be in. But what are your thoughts here? Let's I assume Keenum plays, unless you want to talk about what it would be like with Haskins at Bill's minus ten over under at thirty seven.
I just like, I don't understand why you could ever put faith in the Bills covering a big number. It's the number just jumped off the page. It was the number one number I saw on the board was Bill's minus ten. I know Washington's bad. We can talk about how how bad they are tilb we're blue in the face, but the defense showed something against Minnesota last week that was you can take something away from that. Hopefully Keenum plays, if Haskins plays, you know.
I mean, you can't bet it yet, right though?
Could no?
I mean, this is seriously up in the air right now with I thought, you give them the Thursday game.
Five times in the second half last week five times him doesn't trust him?
If you saw him throw you know why. I mean, you know, he just overthrowing a wide open Terry mclauriny. He's just not ready.
He's ready. But that said, Buffaloes defense gets a lot of praise, but they're not really good against the run, and Callahan loves to run the ball, So maybe there's something there. I just if this number is at at ten or any double digit number, I'm I'm staying away from the Bills. You just you can't bet them, no matter who's that quarterback. The Bills defense is a little overrated when it comes to the rush. They have some troubles there. They couldn't cover at home against Cincy, they
couldn't cover at home against Miami. I just don't know why. As long as you're getting double Jed's, I would I would be taking Washington. They're gonna be one of my favorite teaser Washington's gonna be one of my favorite teaser teams this week. I'm gonna bump them up to like sixteen points and put them on a bunch of teasers.
Yeah, let me ask something. Is that different if Haskins winds up being under center? Are you sed toll Like? No, it's just too many points. I don't care.
It's too many points with the Bills, okay, like Haskins. Is Haskins any better than than I don't know Josh Rosen at this point.
No, no, he's not. But I don't think that makes the difference. I'll honestly, if Keenum plays at the ten number, I like the Redskins. If he doesn't, I'm not. There's just no way, under any circumstances I'm backing a Dwayne Haskins led Redskins team although I completely get your point.
It's not like the Bills are gonna put up a ton of points and the Redskins again, they have a decent defense going on and Adrian Peterson look great actually against the Vikings, so they'll certainly try to control the ball that way. But I like what you're thinking. Before we move on, I do want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Bet MGM is our sponsor, so you hear me tell you about them a lot. But I think last week probably showed you
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If he did, they won one hundred dollars, and he did. Obviously, do you guys get that you risk a dollar on something that is almost certainly going to happen and you win one hundred dollars. They did a similar thing a couple of weeks ago on the one dollar bet for the forty nine ers to beat the Redskins on the money line. They basically give you guaranteed bets with their various boosted bets, and there's a ton of other great features, like being able to track your bet in real time
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next game, the Colts at the Steelers. Now, again we are recording this just at the start of the Steelers versus the Dolphins game, so something could happen in that game that may change thing. Right now, it's Colts minus one. It was a pick them and the over under is at forty three and half. The Colts squeak out the game against the Broncos on a long field goal, but obviously their offense did not look great. Overall, their defense remains strong, and you know the Steelers. Yeah, the Steelers
defense has been strong as well. Again, I'm so hesitant to say anything, you know, less they get destroyed today by the Dolphins or something, but you know, their offense remains in flux. I mean, the Colts had a weird game.
They had a ton of weird game.
They had a ton of penalties. They're never penalized at all. So for me, look, I don't know the Steelers again, having not seen tonight, I get you know, Mike Tomlin is a good coach. I like them. They have a strong defense, but they seem so gimmicky, you know, with Mason Rudolph back there the Colts, it was essentially a pick. A minus one doesn't mean anything. I don't know. I lean towards the Cults on this one. I don't know about you.
It's another one that jumped out on the board to me. The Colts are just the better team. I have the game on the background, and the Dolphins just went up fourteen to nothing on the Steelers.
Oh my god. See you know, I just want you guys to know how dedicated a host I am. I turn it off, okay, and I was planning to watch it on DVR, but obviously Andrew has just ruined the entire experience for me.
I apologize. I just we were just saying how they're down fourteen to nothing to the Dolphins right now, So well, I won't give you any more spoilers.
So jump on and grab that minus one right now, because I may move to quite a bit.
Yeah, the Colts. Like I just said, the Colts are the better team. I think that was like a peak Broncos defensive game too, Like you know that the Broncos could play defense, they just really hadn't to this point. But yeah, they just couldn't The Colts couldn't seem to get anything on track in that first half. Like you said,
lots of penalties. Yeah, that said Frank Wright might be the coach of the year with the whole Brissette luck thing defense getting healthy, they had their both their safeties are back and Darius Leonard is back, and that's a big key. And I just think that they'll be able to I think they should win the game. So yeah, if jump on.
The Colts, yeah, I mean, I'll take this at anything under afield goal and I won't be worried about it whatsoever. I think that they are going to win. And again, the line is probably gonna move if the game unfolds in the way it apparently is unfolding as we speak. Let's move on here to the Jets at the Dolphins. Obviously they're gonna skip it. Never I love talking Abo the Jets is my favorite thing in the world. Look, the Jets are now laying five and the over unders
at forty one and a half. But who knows that the Dolphins destroying the Steelers, who knows how things will go? And now look, there is all sorts of bad things happening with the Jets. Leonard Williams was traded today to the Giants.
Yeah, that's all right, tell me why.
I mean, because they're just gonna trade everyone is really what I was thinking. I mean, look, I mean, we get offline, we'll talk about how I feel about the trade. But CJ. Moseley out for much, if not all, of the remainder of the season. Sam Darnold dealing with a sprain left them, Robbie Anderson is strongly on the trade block. On the other side of the ball, it's the Dolphins. So that's really all you've got there. And again they've traded away Kenyon Drake, so I assume Mark Walton is
the guy who was the starter tonight. I have no idea what has happened yet in this game, but I'm.
Sure it's not kill to score the touchdowns.
And none of it matters anyway. So how do you feel without the benefit of the game tonight? At the Jets laying five and the over under forty one and a half. I will will say that I have taken in my own sort of that the last two weeks, I've taken the Jets and it has been a disaster obviously, So I'm I'm reticent to opinion on this one.
You had you had Jason, my Feelers leader, Jason on two weeks just before they played the Cowboys, and they looked, they looked impressive, and they they win the game and and.
That was the end of Yet are we going to get back on track here? What do you think?
But I can't. That's the thing. Like, they're they're impossible to evaluate. That's that was the quick point there. Uh, They're impossible to evaluate with those performances. There's no way I could feel confident laying any points on them. I do like the over though this you're an under guy, but I like the over here because I feel like both teams probably feel like defense is optional. That's a low number. It also might be that's also maybe one
of my teaser plays this week. Knock that down to about thirty five or so and throw that into a bunch of teasers. I think I think there could be some points here.
Yeah, I like it.
Fitzpatrick's gonna get Yes, Fitzpatrick's gonna throw the ball a lot.
Of one of Fitzpatrick's seventeen revenge games, you know, I mean, he's able to Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, so yeah, I would stay away from the line, but the total is something I'll be looking at.
Yeah, you are echoing my thoughts exactly. I cannot as much as if I'm forced to take one again, not having seen the Dolphins, I would take the Jets just because I do think they're a little more competent than they have shown. Yes, with all the potential trades, you can't really get a read on it, but the over under, yeah, I agree. I mean the Jets can score. I mean their offensive line is terrible. They may be with our Robbie Anderson, but they can put up points.
Been unfair to Darnold as well. This this whole ghost thing is a little overblown. It's literally something so many people say every week. He was just recorded.
Well he knew he was being recorded, So maybe not say that next time. But kudos to the Jaguars for trolling him in an expert.
Oh my god, it was epicla fantastic.
If you don't know about that, there's a lot of stuff that they did. All of it is brilliant. So we can go. But I think we're both on the same page here. Just run away from the spread. Whatever it is when it ends. But if the over under sticks it around forty one forty one and a half, jump all over it with the over Titans at the Panthers Panthers currently laying four. It was three and a
half and the over unders at forty one. Look Ryan Tannehill making the Titans offense look somewhat competent, three touchdown passes against and admittedly weak books pass defense. Meanwhile, the Panthers completely embarrassed against the forty nine ers. As we discussed earlier, Kyle Allen has a rough day. He has already been named the starter for this game, so it's not gonna be Newton yet. So thoughts here on the Panthers at home laying four and the over under at forty one to the Titans.
This is it's the Panthers are a really uncomfortable team right now. Like I can't I can't get a read on them whatsoever. But they should be upset, right You think they'd be upset after being embarrassed like that?
Oh my god, Yes, absolutely.
But this one's obviously gonna come down to whether or not Chris. The answer is usually yes. Christian McCaffrey is successfu Like that's almost they check that off like he is going to be good. But the Titans are really good against the rush. It's it's I don't, I don't. I really don't know what to feel about this game. I I can't believe I'm saying, but Ryan Daniel has looked,
like you said, competent. He looked He's looked much better than Marcus Mariota, which is it's it's taken the Titans away from that one of the most uncomfortable teams to bet sort of thing, because you never know, oh, this is this the week they're gonna let you down, right, So that that said, I'll probably go and back them this week at plus four and a half or plus four or whatever is, and then they'll let me down again.
Of course. Yeah, I have no I have no feel for this one. I didn't mean to carry off. I'm sorry. Yeah, I have no feel for this one whatsoever. I liked the Panthers a lot coming off the bye, you know, And I don't know whether or not it says that much about the forty nine ers. It probably does, or whether or not it says, you know, because the Panthers
had really started to look very, very solid defensively. But again, the Titans, like you said, they're a team who I constantly avoid, but I feel less worried about them with Anally pushes the ball down the field a little bit more. He right, you know, he's more accurate than Mariotta, which again very low bar. But yeah, it's a game that I don't really love above a field goal. I kind of lean towards the Titans anywhere above a field goal.
Yeah, if you put if you gun to my head on, I'd take the points with the underdog here.
I think that's the right way to say it. But we're both saying gun to our head, which means neither one of us really loves it. But I agree with you, I would take the points if I had to pick a side. Bucks at Seahawks. Seahawks currently minus seven, that's jumped from minus six, and the look headline at the
over under. I mean, I love these Seahawks games where you look at it and you're you're thinking, like your first reaction is it's probably gonna be like in a mid forties, like high forty, something like fifty three for the over under. This is not your grandfather, Seahawks. Jameis Winton. James Winston just does what he does against the Titans, plenty of turnovers. Bucks cannot run the ball, they cannot stop the pass. Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense and home field advantage,
it's just not what it once was. But they're still getting thing done, mainly because Russell Wilson is playing an MVP level. Chris Carson is running incredibly well. Again, this is a very tough matchup for running backs. You can throw all over the Bucks, but it's very difficult to run. So how do you feel here? Seahawks minus seven and the under age fifty three the Bucks.
It's like one of the most shocking stats in the NFL. The Bucks ranked first in dv AWA against the Rush.
Yeah.
I know they've got some very talented defenders, but like you just don't think of that when you think of the Bucks. I would say, and here's a fun staff forget the Seahawks have not covered at home this season own for ats at home. Oh and that includes that includes games against Cincy and all the Saints Teddy Teddy Bridgewater Saints. Sure, but they just there's something about these home games that they just haven't They lost, They lost out right to the to the Ravens against a team
at that point. Going into that game, we were probably like, oh, the Ravens, they look good on offense now, but they can't play defense anymore.
They're kind of like and then Thursday night game against the Rams right where they won by one but the spread was one and a half. Yeah, you're right.
And then and then last week they the Falcons kind of laid down for them for three quarters of the game and then the Seahawks just didn't care and they didn't cover last week, which was I had that. I had that game, so I was one of those bitter minus seven and a half betters, which is yeah.
I had it at six and a half, thankfully, so I was yeah, so I was able to get the hook. But yeah, look, I agree with you. The Bucks for me, are a really tough team to get a sense of, right because there are It was like the Titans. I always said the Bucks versus the Titans was like my nightmare because it was two teams that I felt like I had no sense of what they were going to do whatsoever. And it's kind of the same way. I mean, the Bucks should have won that game yesterday against the Titans.
Without the you know, the blown call and the field goal or anything like that. And the Seahawks, you know, they're just not that good. Russell Wilson is really good, but he is. He's really good. He could be the MVP this year. But I don't think the team as that could, which I think is why the home field advantage really isn't making that much of a difference. I just think if I'm forced to pay again, this is one where I don't have a side here. You know,
I don't feel great about it either way. If I'm forced to pick Man anything less than a touchdown, I think I'll take the Seahawks. Anything more than the touchdown, I think I take the Bucks. Right now, it's at seven, so I you know, I'm I'm.
So that's a stay away, to stay away for.
Me and the over under. I don't know, man, I think i'd probably lean on. That's a high number. I get it, I get it, I get it. But at fifty three, man, I don't know. Again, Russell Wilson, you know, it's like twenty past attempts a game. I mean, I don't know how many touchdowns he could actually throw given that to get it to that number. So for me, I lean under at seven. It's a stay away from me. But if it moves higher, I probably think the values
at the Bucks. If the moves lower, I think the values at the Seahawks.
It's another teaser. It's another teaser game for me. I would tease. I would tease the total down here and then take the over. Yeah, obviously the Seahawks can't cover right now. I would say they're having a lot of trouble covering people, and Mike Evans is doing his thing again, and they just they look good on as long as they're they look good until they're not looking good. That's
what's the infurity and thing about the Bucks. Yeah, and yeah, they win that game in LA and then they promptly goin three straight up in ats in our next three games.
Yeah, that's why I don't want any part of them here. Let's move on to an interesting line here. Lions at the Raiders. Raiders now are laying three. It was at minus one and the over under a pretty high fifty one. I'm a little surprised here. I mean, the Lions to me have have repeatedly gotten a little less respect than I think they deserve, though they did not cover yesterday against the Giants, despite winning the game. Without carry on Johnson,
they've absolutely no running game. Even with him, they barely had a running game, but without him they certainly have none. They employed they' running back by committee approach. That's not a big deal against the Raiders, who can't stop the pass anyway, So Matthew Stafford, who's having a great season, should be able to do some damage here. The Raiders' offense, though they look just fine. They nearly pull it out
against the Texans. Tyrell Williams returns and scores a touchdown because that's what he does every single game he plays. Darren Waller's playing great, Josh Jacobs is playing well. They can put up points, hence the high over under. But how do you feel here with the Raiders laying a field goal at home in the over under at fifty one?
I think it's it's the right way to feel. You feel surprised. The Raiders have been surprising on offense, and I think this is where the numbers should be around a field goal, because unfortunately, I think the Lions are giving up a little bit with the trade. They've made some confusing trades as well, not as confusing as some teams. But they traded away their captain last week and on defense and I just didn't get it. And yeah, with Johnson now hurt, it's it's they become very one dimensional.
I know the Raiders don't do much on defense, but anytime you're near that one dimensional, you're gonna have issues. And I think that's I think that's probably the where the line is supposed to be. I I don't see it going much higher than this.
Yeah, and there's probably start getting the consensus, to be clear, is at three. There's still a couple of books offering it at two, so it's moving around a little bit near and.
I could see it. I could see it ending around two and a half or two in that and that kind of area there. Yeah, and I just it's a hard it's another hard one to evaluate this. There's I think i'd if I'd have to take the Raiders at home, just because I like the way. I like the way the offenses look. They they've put up some some tough fights. They it was they looked an impressive on offense against against the Texans last week. They gave them a run
for their money. Obviously, they got blown out by Green Bay, but beat Chicago in London, like we mentioned before, beat Indianapolis Indianapolis like it's and they've covered three of their last four, so it's it's where the line should be.
I think, yeah. I think for me, how I feel about this game might depend on how healthy the Lions are on defense, because you know when they're down Darius Slay like they were against the Giants, and I think Snax Harrison got injured again in that game. He's a big stopper of the run, so I think it might
depend on that. If both guys are healthy, I think I'd probably favor the lines if you're going to get something like a field goal, But if not, it's probably a game that I just don't feel great about either way because I just don't trust either one of these teams, which is I feel like both teams could easily have much better records than they do, the Raiders at three and four of the Lions at three three and one, So it's not a game that I'm uber excited about.
But if the Lions get healthy on defense, I think i'd probably lean towards them. If you're going to get a field goal before we finish up with our last few games, I want to remind everyone about our October giveaway, which is a signed Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland Brown's helmet.
You can go to bettingpros dot com slash contest for more details, but to enter, just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com, and an entry into this contest automatically gets you entered to all future contests. So take the two seconds support the show and maybe you'll win a free helmet. All right, let's move on here to the Browns at the Broncos. I mentioned it at the top. The opening line was
Broncos laying one and a half. It is now the Browns laying three and the over under his drop from forty three to forty and a half. And the real reason for it is the absence of Joe Flacco, who's gonna miss this game and may go on the IR with a purported case of a herniated disk in his neck, but a real case of stop insulting the coaching staff. That's what it was. Come on, that's what it is.
Brandon Allen is going to get the start for the Broncos, And I've got to be honest, this has to be the first time we've had three guys with the last name Alan starting at quarterback in the NFL. Right job, Kyle and Brandon I don't know who he is, but anyway, we don't know much about what we're going to see from the defensive side of the ball. You mentioned how they put up a big effort against the Colts. We don't know if Chris Harris Junior is still going to
be there at you know, when the game comes around. Meanwhile, the Browns are in complete disarray. A few things are working for them. Jarvis Landry got injured at the end of the game. I don't know how serious it is. Baker Mayfield looks like me after I try to do a push on, you know, like he just he just looks like he's beaten down at this point. It's just
not working for him. So with the understanding that it's probably a little difficult to analyze this because I don't know, I'll be honest, I don't know all that much about Brandon Allen myself. So how do you feel about that? The Browns in Denver? So it's a tough place to play, of course, laying three with an over under forty and a half or is this literally a I have no idea what to do with this with Brandon Allen, and I need to research it and then.
We'll I would need I would need to do more research on Brandon Allen. First, I did this is funny a few weeks ago that game they well, I guess last week when they played the Chiefs, I didn't even realize that Drew Locke had been hurt. Yeah, I was like, why why is Joe Flacco was still in this football game? Like it was? It was terrible. I don't know. Wow, you can't evaluate Uh, Sutton is looks good on offense. Free scored a couple of touchdowns the last couple of weeks,
so they're they're starting to it. I don't know if Allen could be much worse than Joe Flacco.
So maybe it's that that's really what it comes down to, right, Joe Flacco has been the most disinterested human being ever to play in the NFL. Over the last three weeks. He's just been like, I don't know, guys, I guess I'll play How much time do we have Okay, that's fine. I mean, legitimately, I don't know what the over you know, the the highest number of rushing attempts that a team has ever done in a single game, But the Broncos probably might as well just go for breaking the record here.
I mean, you can attack the Browns on the ground, just feed Lindsay Royce Freeman, see what you can do. But in the end, I don't think there's any way to properly analyze this game at this point.
The Browns are a mess, right like Freddy Kitchens is lucky to have a job. At this point, I would say.
Yeah, I mean, I guess the only thing you could say about this without you know, again, it's it's very difficult for us to really, you know, breathe it in because we don't know too much about what it's gonna look like. But in the end, you know, the Browns, as much as their season is probably over, this is really it. Okay, if they don't win this game, like the season is legitimately over. There two and five, you
still have a pulse at this point. I mean, the Broncos are two and six, but they're you know, they've traded Sanders already, They're probably going to make other other moves. This is it. You've got the Browns against a just you know, a backup quarterback that nobody really knows whatsoever. You've got the team trading guys. This is their stand. And so if you want to buy into that narrative, I could see back in the Browns.
But overall, just know, if you know Freddy Kitchens, I'm just I know he fumbled twice. One of them wasn't really as full as you get the ball kicked. But you just give Nick Chubb the ball as much as possible hopefully you win the football game.
Yeah, and he looked great yesterday. I mean, you know, he fumbled twice early, they still kept giving them the ball. They still will and so I think that, but for now, I don't know, stay away if it is our advice. Packers at the Chargers. Packers laying three and the over under at forty six, up a half point from forty five and a half at the look aad line. The Packers continue to roll even without Devonte Adams. He may make it back for this one. I'm not sure if
he's going to need another week here. Uh, the defense showing few holes now the pass defense, as evident last night against the Chiefs, but Aaron Jones and Aaron Rodgers both playing exceptionally well. And you cannot say the same thing about the Chargers. Though they do eke out that win against the Bears, it's really just business as usual for them. It's they're inconsistent, both offensively and defensively. They have a ton of injuries that they can't really overcome.
They're going home here, but that is not an actual home field advantage. It's almost a disadvantage because.
Charge that Steelers game like it'll be exactly like that Steelers game was a few weeks ago, like the Packers fans will travel, that will be that will be at least fifty Packers fans there this weekend.
What makes me nervous about this line is, you know, the public loves the Packers, right, so you figure that you're gonna get money on this with the Packers. So I'm a little surprised it's not higher given the freed you know, right.
It's it's it's a little suspicious. The line is a little suspicious because I look at the Chargers and I see a team who who who doesn't want to give their best player of the football, Austin Eckler, just that guy the football all the time, and like I know, they still use him in the passing game a lot. But Melvin Gordon is not in shape right now. He just he's not. He can't run the ball, well, he can't, and they're just dedicated to give him the ball. And
I don't know why. I'm confused as to why they want to just keep going on this way. But it should be a Packers Packers easy win here. But that's so that's why it's suspicious, because it's so low.
I mean, I think even if I looked at this and I said, okay, they're trying to get us, you know, they're trying to get people to take the Packers. You know, there's something that I'm missing. It's got to be the Chargers. There's just no way that I would feel comfortable taking the Chargers in a game that's you know, they could win. But it's not something where it would be something where even if I saw value in the charters, I probably
couldn't pull the trigger. And again, it's possible Gordon gets dealt by the way. I mean, it's certainly it's certainly one of the possibilities. I mean, Gordon does not look good, but again, their offensive line is just completely beat up with it.
Three starters are gone.
It's it's why Eckler does his damage in the passing game. It's not like he's running it and tearing it up. I mean, he's just much more doing it out of the passing game. So again, it's a game that I think the line strikes both of us as, Wow, you got to hammer the Packers on this number. But you know, I need to do a little bit of a deeper dive into it, because on the surface it looks like, Wow,
definite Packers. But when it's that way, especially with a public team like the Packers that you know is going to get a ton of money on them, it's a little suspicious. Still at this point, I'll be honest, at a field goal, I'll pound the Packers like I'll take it right out.
Like the defense isn't as bad as some of the numbers indicate. Obviously, they have their issues against the rush, which I don't think will be a problem against the Chargers, which is which makes this line even more suspicious. I think you can give them a bit of a break against last night like you're still playing in arrowhead. You're still having to face like really talented skill position guys like Hill and Kelsey. Yeah, so I think there is
some leeway to be given there. So yes, I'm on board with the hammering of the pack.
All right, let's move on here to the Patriots at the Ravens. Money I'm sure is coming in on the raven here because the line has dropped from Patriots laying five to Patriots laying four. The over under has dropped from forty six to forty four and a half. The Patriots win on Sunday in the slop against the Browns, but the offense really has not looked dynamic for several weeks. The defense, though, continues to be incredibly, incredibly impressive. Then
you get the Ravens. They're playing well off that big win against the Seahawks. Lamar Jackson continues to do well on the ground at least. They're coming off a buy where Harbaugh is really good at getting his team coached up. I hesitate, and again, this is two weeks in a row where I've taken the points against the Patriots and come out on the wrong end. For me, the value here and it's dropped already, so this might I get.
You know, when I first looked at forty six, it was a little different than forty four and a half. Maybe not, but I still kind of like the under here, just because both these teams control the ball forever. I mean, they both have a huge time of possession. So it strikes me as something where you know they're both going to try to be methodical in their drives and see what they can do to extend it, which leans towards
the under. But I'm not sure how I feel. How do you do at Patriots lank for and now the over under at forty four and a half?
This is another one of those If you like the Patriots, I don't see it. They're a public team. It's not gonna get The number is not gonna go down any further, so you might as well take the Patriots now if you want. It's gonna be really interesting to see what Belichick can come up against having to face Jackson like we haven't. Jackson hasn't had to face anything like this, like this Patriots defense yet, so it's gonna be fun to see the little x's and o's and seeing how
they punch and counter punch each other. But I think you're right. I think what it's gonna come down to is the run game for both teams. The Patriots, haven't they in a sense, they obviously passed to set up the run, but they need to control the clock a little more in this game. And I think they'll do that by given guys like it'll be one of these weird games where they get Brand of the Bold in some touches for some reason, and James White will get
a few extra carries. And besides the the Michelle just I don't know, he had an okay game last night or yesterday, and they still want to get him going. And the Ravens just aren't very good on defense right now.
So well, they've gotten a little bit better against the runs since Brandon Williams came back, and again, you know, without James Devlin, I think that's been a huge issue for the Patriots running game. But and you know, they don't really have the depth of receiver right now. Edelman's still there. I know they traded for some new Philip Dorsett, but it's nobody that really scares you. We'll see. I hear they're still looking for a receiver so we'll see
what they do, right, if they can add anything. But in the end, offensively, they don't really scare you all that much at this point, I don't think because just their weapons, so I could see them, you know, just being methodical. Their defense is legitimate. It would really help the Ravens. If Hollywood Brown comes back for this one he's missed several weeks, he at least stretches the field a little bit. But you know, Belichick is going to
come up with something. So with the line, yeah, I mean it's not going to get down to a field goal or anything like that because the Patriots are a public team. So I think it'll bounce between four and five. So, like you said, if you like them, you can go ahead and take them here is fine. And again the over under at forty four and a half, I still like the under right there. I liked it more at
forty six. But for now, I see this as kind of a close game that's going to be relatively low scoring as both teams, you know, do what they do best, which is still a.
Lot of the different players. But this is still a big rivalry game and sure and it should be a low scoring one.
Yeah, I agree with that. Let's move on to our final game of the week, the Cowboys at the Giants. Cowboys now are laying seven. It was at seven and a half, so it's moved just a bit, and the over under at forty eight. Daniel Jones set's career highs pretty much across the board against the Lions. It's not enough for them to win. They do had Leonard Williams, as we talked about, and Sterling Shepard might be able to make it back from his concussion, although that's still
kind of up in the air. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are off a bye and their impressive win against the Eagles. They've been a bit up and down this season. We talked about how in the world did they lose against the Jets if not a good sign for them, But how do you feel here? Division rivalry Monday Night Football, Cowboys at the Giants laying a touchdown and the over under at forty eight.
These these division games are obviously always closer, and the Cowboys have have looked very good against bad teams and have looked very bad against good teams. It seems so the Giants to me are a bad team. I just it's a lot of points. It's a lot of points for a team that has struggled against well, it just struggled in general recently. And Daniel Jones, if I have to, I'd take the Cowboys, just because I think Daniel Jones is turning off the ball way too much right now.
Everybody was very much in love with Danny Dimes when he came on the scene, but it's it's more like Danny turnovers like that kid. That kid turns over the ball a lot. He's a bit of a gunslinger and he's got putting them in some problems. So I don't I don't know how to how to feel about align that big with the Cowboys, but the guy on the other side is iffy, so I'd probably stay away.
This is you throwing up your hands. That was the verbal equivalent of Andrew throwing his hands up in the air, being like, I don't know. There was just a lot of I don't know. I'd like this, but no, don't apologize. That's exactly right. I mean honestly that that really is what it is. And I try to encourage our guests when they're on the show. It's okay to say, man, I do not have a feel for that line. That is not what I want to know. Neither do I. Honestly,
I really don't. I think I probably would lean towards the Cowboys if it was under a touchdown at this point, but I wouldn't feel great about it. Again, divisional games are always a little bit tricky, and the Giants, you know, they have the ability to keep a game close. It's not like the Cowboys have this dominant defense. Now that Saquon Barkley is back healthy, now that Golden Tate is back in the fold, he's been playing really well. Evan
Ingram finally had a really good game, you know. So it is a game where, especially if Shepherd can come back. I mean, even if the Cowboys are in control, you could see the Giants getting a backdoor cover here, you know. So it's certainly not a game that I feel really good about in a Division game. So for now, I'm gonna on it if it drops below seven, which I won't expect it to. If anything, I think it's gonna go up.
Yeah, I see a couple of eights on the boardland, Yeah.
There are a couple of eights. And again, Cowboys are such a public team, so you know, but you know, in New York, it just it makes me a little hesitant. So this is again one that both of us are pretty much out of. Stay away. I'm kind of maybe willing to trust the Cowboys if it drops below seven. I don't think it will, and it wouldn't be a
game that I would love. It's you know, it's not gonna be one of my best bets or anything on the Thursday Show because it's just it's not a game that I have a great feel for because again, the Giants are able to put up points, even though I don't really trust them as a good football team like they did yesterday against the Lions. They don't have a great defense, but they were able to in the end come storming back a little bit and put up points.
So it's not a game I feel great about. Yeah, all right, agree, that is going to do it for today's show. Andrew, it was great having you back on. Remind everyone where they can find more of you in your work.
You can find me at covers dot com, where we've got a ton of other great football betting content, and you can find me on Twitter at Covers Underscore Klee. I'll be tweeting college Football NFL, and maybe one or two more baseball picks depending on how much longer this world series goes. Probably not long, I don't.
Think, probably not not with the shows are injury and again that's C A L E Y C. I got your back over there.
That's right, all.
Right, Well, thanks again for coming on, and thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember download the bet MGM Sports app and use the promo code Harris to get your risk free first wager of up to five hundred dollars. And don't forget to rate and review the podcast and send the screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com for your chance to an assigned Odell Beckham, Junior Brown Hummet. We'll be back later this week giving you some of our best bets
for week nine. I'll talk to you then,