NFL Week 8 Game Lines Reactions (Ep. 20) - podcast episode cover

NFL Week 8 Game Lines Reactions (Ep. 20)

Oct 22, 201958 min
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Episode description

Alex Kolodziej, a sports betting writer for The Score, joins us to break down every line for Week 8. Is there value in picking against the Falcons whether Matt Ryan plays or not (5:54)? The Cardinals have won three straight, but does that mean they have a chance against NO this week (13:00)? Find out who has the edge in the NYJ vs JAC contest (27:33). Will Carolina be the team to finally knock off the 49ers (38:25)? Finally, find out if the absence of Patrick Mahomes spells doom for the Chiefs when they take on Green Bay (49:51).

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Transcript

Speaker 1

Hey there everyone. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Hadi. It is time for our early look at next week's lines, and with me to break it all down is Alex Kaloj, a sports betting writer for The Score. You can find him on Twitter at aj Kaloj and I will spell his last name for you because you will never get it right. Ko l O, d z I EJ. Alex. Thanks for coming back on the show. How's it going.

Speaker 2

I'm doing well, man, Thanks for having me good.

Speaker 1

I believe you were here for a pre season episode before, is that correct?

Speaker 3

Yeah? It was basically just me and you having a nice, cordial disagreement on the Houston Texans for about forty five minutes. But yes, it was a lot of fun and I'm glad to be back.

Speaker 1

All right. I feel like I was probably right on that, but I don't remember it specifically, so I'll leave it up to the listeners to go back and tell me differently. Now, how is week seven for you? Out of curiosity from NFL Betting Perspective, Week.

Speaker 3

Seven was Okay, a lot more totals than sides had come through. And it's funny because I had been playing strictly totals for the first couple of weeks, and there were a couple of sides that stuck out and saw a lot.

Speaker 2

Of sharp players that were on the same side, and I thought, you know what, I'll try my hand.

Speaker 3

On some sides, and sure enough, I got reverse wept. So heading into this week, I'll probably have to regroup a little bit and probably go back to just playing some totals and player props and stuff like that.

Speaker 2

But yeah, overall, it was a good week.

Speaker 3

I feel like this season in the NFL has been pretty kind to me, and I wish I could say the same about college football. So it's basically been ass backwards the last two years in terms of college football and NFL. I feel like my strengths for the past decade of and college football and NFL has just kind of been throwing some darts here and there. But for whatever reason, the NFL has been pretty profitable so far.

Speaker 1

How about yourself, right, Well, our early impressions are going to be spot on right now, I'm making that proclamation, so don't you worried about it. Now, Alex and I are going to be going through each game on the Week eight slate. We're going to be using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. Now, unless this is your first time listening, you know that the consensus odds are an aggregation of the odds that are available on

the market. But as always, there are going to be differences in the various sports books, so go ahead and shop around for the best odds. Also, if you want to see how some of the top sports betting experts are leaning on any given bet at any given time, Betting pros dot Com is going to show you that too. All right, Alex, let's dive right in here with the Redskins at the Vikings on Thursday night. The current aggregate odds are Vikings minus fifteen and the over under at

forty one and a half. Now the spread has dropped from the look ahead line it was sixteen and a half, so the Vikings now are down about a point and a half from where they were. Vikings are really starting to getting a role here. They continue to mix in their passing game a little bit more. Does not sound like Adam Thielen is going to play. More likely he's out until Week nine after he left Sunday's game against

the Lions with a hamstring injury. I doubt the Vikings are going to need him to win, but that could account a little bit for the money probably coming in a lit little bit on the Redskins. As for them, they are coming off the monsoon game against the forty nine ers where you really couldn't draw any specific conclusions. So how do you feel about Vikings playing fifteen and the over under forty one and a half.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I don't have much of an edge on this game.

Speaker 3

The numbers look about right, especially with Adam Dala being out. Kind of had to adjust a little bit for that. I just, you know, I find it weird because Washington to start the season they were such a good overteam. Everybody was throwing on their defense and their secondary and then that basically put case Keenum into into full pass mode.

And I remember the first couple of weeks, you know, I was playing his player props over passing years almost every week, and it was you know, it worked out pretty well given the situation and how games had played out. Now you look at the last three four games, Washington's kind of turned into an under team, and I know last week's weather or excuse me, yesterday's weather with San Francisco kind of you know, I don't know exactly how

much you can you can put into that. It was basically a slot fest with a lot of running the football. But I agree with the move here from from forty I think the opener forty forty half to forty one and a half because I think this weekend with Washington, you know, they've played you know, they played the Miami, they were in there with with San Francisco, you know, yesterday and whatnot, and they were perfectly content with running

the ball. And with the new coaching change, they've obviously adopted that identity that they wanted to run the football. But you know, as sixteen point underdogs and probably going to be trailing most of the game, I think Washington's gonna have to throw the balls to get back into it. So my initial lean here is actually the over at

forty one and a half. So, you know, after the first three weeks of going over, in the last three weeks being an under team, I think I'm going to go back to on the go back on the wagon.

Speaker 2

Here and probably lean over here forty one and a half.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I agree with that. I mean the Redskins are overall relatively healthy in the Vikings defense, while strong, of course, I mean they're not this just like lockdown unit anymore. As Detroit showed yesterday putting up points with you know, relative ease. It was more about the Vikings offense. And yeah, you know, a Thursday night game without Adam Thielen. Fine, but you know, I feel like as a general matter, defenses aren't you know, always, you know, fully up for

the challenge going over here. You've got the Vikings coming up with games against the Chiefs and then following that up with the game against Dallas. This is an easy spot for them to look ahead. I don't worry too much about the spread, but I don't have a real good lean on it. But I agree with you that I think that the over is probably the player. At

least early, it's already moved that point. I would wouldn't be surprised to see it move up to closer to forty two, maybe even forty two and a half.

Speaker 3

And I will say this too, Dan, I think early in the season the past, you know, the first you know, six seven weeks, I saw a lot of primetime games, a lot of Thursday Night games go under the total. It seems like every primetime game, Sunday night, Moday night, Thursday Night seem to be low scoring games.

Speaker 2

And I think now that we're.

Speaker 3

Getting kind of into, you know, the second half of the season here, we're going to start seeing that you know, four day rest, the three and a half day rest from Sunday to Thursday start taking new effect for the defenses here, and I think we'll start seeing a little bit more high scoring.

Speaker 2

Games as the season goes on, To be perfectly honest with you.

Speaker 1

Yeah, absolutely agree. Moving on to the next game, Seahawks at the Falcons, the odds are still Seahawks laying three and a half, and the over under at fifty three and a half moved just slightly from the opening line of fifty four. You've obviously got some question marks here for the Falcons. Matt Ryan has a sprained ankle. He's not ruled out for Week eight. He could play. Certainly, the Falcon season is a complete dumpster fire and basically

done already at this point. Edo Smith is ruled out, But other than that, this really depends on Matt Ryan. So it's a little difficult. But let's assume Ryan plays here unless you think it's worth jumping in at the Seahawks. Leaning three and a half just given the uncertainty with the Seahawks though, Look, they you know, are probably pretty angry coming off a bad loss against Baltimore at home. They were a little bit embarrassed. They're relatively healthy, not

fully of little injuries on the defensive side. But you know, I'll be honest, three and a half regardless of Ryan. I'm all assume Ryan's healthy. Three and a half struck me as a little bit light here. I expected this to be more like four and a half somewhere closer to that, and I think it's going to move that way regardless of whether or not Ryan is ruled out.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I would expect that to jump even if Ryan's in high ankle sprain. I believe it is. Even if he's you know, even if he goes, he's not going to be one hundred percent. And if I could be wrong here, but I think some shops actually moved this up to seven with with Ryan being out. You know, I was reading some stuff talking to somebos and had a group discussion, and you know that would imply that he's worth you know, three and a half points to

the spread here. But I would actually say that Ryan's worth more in this case from you know, the drop off from Ryan to Shop. I think it's a lot more than that. To be perfectly honest with you, I don't I know, Matt Ryan's not playing like an MVP, but you know, for him to keep the Falcons in games the shootouts like that takes a lot. Like for four quarters, this seems almost always trailing. And you know, for all the problems that they've had, I don't think

he's been that big of a problem. You know, Seattle, I've played a lot of Seattle overs early in the season. They were one of my favorite teams to players. I think they played their overs four straight weeks. You know, obviously don't they don't have the defense that they once had. But for me, when I made this number, I made it fifty two and a half. So fifty three and a half is pushing it. Fifty three and a half fifty four is pushing it. For me, I would honestly

lean under here, Seahawks still a run heavy team. Don't let Russell Wilson's pass as fully, they still want to want to put the ball on the ground, and in Atlanta actually has a very underrated front seven.

Speaker 2

I know they've been bad.

Speaker 3

I know the numbers would suggest otherwise, but they have been getting pressure. So in this case I would lean under and and basically hope that you know that Matt Shop comes in and plays there, that Ryan isn't exactly one hundred percent.

Speaker 2

But my initial lean here is actually under, which is.

Speaker 3

Crazy because I love playing both teams over, but this just this number just got.

Speaker 2

Too high for me.

Speaker 1

I think this is a game where the Seahawks can probably win it pretty easily regardless of if Ryan plays, particularly though if he's compromised, and I think in the end that is what they want to do, right, I mean, Russell Wilson has been incredible, but in the end, Brian Schottenheimer wants to run the ball, run the ball, run

the ball. That's all he really wants to do. And I think this is a game that they can control pretty easily on the ground, you know, just generally because Chris Carson has been so good, and you know, I think they'll be able to score. But I agree, this is not a game that I think trends is a shootout regardless. So I grew with the under and if you can get again, you know there are shops still offering three point five right now. I jump on it. For the Seahxcers, I don't really care if Ryan plays,

even if you were one hundred percent. The Falcons are just in disarray. I can't believe Dan Quinn still has a job at this point. So if you like the line, Joe Bonnett and if it pushes to seven, I mean, if Ryan's out, I'm still fine to do that with Matt schob because, as you pointed out, it is not an insignificant downgrade, certainly at the quarterback spot. Let's move on here to Broncos at the Colts. Colts here are laying six and a half over under is at forty

three and a half. Colts just continue to roll. They're still an underrated team, and with Darius Leonard back, they can really lock down the run like they did against the Texans. Meanwhile, the Broncos were everyone's underrated team that's so much better than their record until they laid a terrible egg against the Chiefs, even with Patrick Mahomes out. On Thursday night. Now they have to travel to Indianapolis. They get the mini by here because they're coming off

at Thursday night game. But how do you feel about Colts laying six and a half under the keynotber of seven and the over under at forty three and a half.

Speaker 3

Yeah, this is gonna be another under for me. I was on the under of this past weekend Indianapolis Houston and watching it unfold, this is just reminded me how much I.

Speaker 2

Hate betting unders.

Speaker 3

But I sincerely think that this Colts team is not the Colts team that we think it is, despite seeing the score this past weekend. I know playing Houston's secondary is a recipe for playing overs, but I thought it was a good under because Jacoby Brissett's basically been.

Speaker 2

A game manager.

Speaker 3

If they haven't really put the ball in his hands, they don't mind handing the ball off to Marlon Mack and Jeorde Wilkins and you know, letting Jacoby Prissette throw here and there. But they're not a shootout team. I made this forty two and a half Denver's. Denver's offense, to me, doesn't offer any upside. Joe Flacco obviously hasn't been playing great. I think their receiving corps is extremely underwhelming. Their defense is really the only thing that I can

can really pinpoint here as a strength. And to me, I think this number is a point point and a half high and I'm gonna wait to see if i can get forty four. Forty four pops up, then I'm gonna be on the under. But already grabs them at forty three and a half and I feel real good about it.

Speaker 1

How about six and a half because that feels about right to me. I mean, I expect the Colts to win here. I wasn't surprised to see it under seven, but I think this is about where it's gonna end up. I don't expect it to move, and I think if you like either side, you can wait because I'd be shocked if it moves up to the key number of seven. But that feels about right to me.

Speaker 3

Yeah, this feels very very early reminiscent of you know the Colts they trying to think of. It was week four, they were off a win, and then they came back home and they were playing in Oakland and laid on six and a half and it was just it looked just so good to be true. Yeah, you know, road teams off buys have typically fared well, and you know maybe that plays a part into it too, But no play on this on the spread, I made it six, So you know, I couldn't tell you I'm terrible at

reading the market on spreads. I just it's it's gotten to the point now where it doesn't matter how hard I try. I just I can't get a read on the market in terms of spreads. So you know, I'm going back to the wall here with the total. I just I think Denver and Indianapolis are gonna wind up being two of the best under teams once it's all.

Speaker 2

Said and done.

Speaker 3

And I know that some of the box scores for Indianapolis would suggest otherwise, but really, their identity under Frank Reich, which is kind of weird to say, is it's kind of been a conservative approach on offense.

Speaker 2

And I think we're gonna see a slog.

Speaker 1

Here, all right, So you heard it there. First, you listen to whatever Alex says on the spread and just do the opposite. But no, no, no, I honestly that's fine that I've had. You know, a couple of weeks where I felt great about it, in a couple of weeks where I don't really have a good sense. This at six point five feels about right to me. With the Colts coming off a giant win against the Texans, it feels a little bit like a letdown game, and everybody's kind of off the Broncos because of how bad

they looked. But they're not nearly that bad a team, so I think six and a half is good. I would probably lean towards the Colts overall, so long as it stays below the key number, but it's not something where I'm overly excited about, nor I'm i With the Cardinals at Saints, this was actually Saints laying eight and a half. It's moved all the way up to Saints lang ten, and the over under has stayed relatively where it is forty eight open going to forty seven and

a half. So there's two teams. Look, they're both trending in the right direction. The Saints remain undefeated with Teddy Bridgewater under center. They don't miss a beat without Alvin Kamara yesterday against the Bears. They're playing lights out defensively. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have now won three in a row and they got Patrick Peterson back. Admittedly, their three wins were against the Bengals, Falcons, and Giants, three of the worst

teams in the league. So thoughts on coming in here at Saints when it was eight and a half, it was a little shocking to me. Ten makes me a little more hesitant. But Saints lang ten and the over under, I know that's your bread and butter forty seven and a half.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so New Orleans was actually one of the first bets I made this week. Arizona right now is probably at the peak of their price right now in the market.

Speaker 2

Yeah, you could say.

Speaker 3

That they have momentum, but obviously have to look at the schedule. I mean, they beat Cincinnati sinn eighteen. That was off a Thursday or excuse me, a you know, a primetime loss to Pittsburgh. They beat Atlanta, you know, a depleted Atlanta team who was off of beat down in Houston, so they were on the second of a back to back road game as well. And then last week they go into New York. They go up seventeen to nothing and really didn't look back. And the weather

in that game I think affected both game plans. But you know, coming in, I think that New Orleans is going to be able to do whatever they want offensively. The offensive line is playing as good as anybody in football right now, and I think that they're gonna be able to contain Arizona's quote unquote pass rush or lack thereof.

And you know, Teddy Bridgewater twenty eight and seven against a spread as a starter in the NFL, the best record, you know for a minimum amount of stars for qualifying quarterback. I also lean to the under here at forty eight and a half.

Speaker 2

Yeah.

Speaker 3

I obviously don't love Cliff Kingsbury running basically a no huddle college set because that tends to give you a lot more possessions, tends to get in the a lot of shootouts as we've seen this year. But the way New Orleans defense is playing with Marshawn Lattimore and the pass rush that they have, and you know, I can't see Arizona on the second of a back to back going into a dome and putting up points against a really, really good New Orleans team.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I my worry in both of these numbers, the Saints slaying ten the over under and forty seven a half is that the Saints would get out to a big lead and then just kind of sit back a little bit like they did against the Bears here in this past game where the Bears were completely shut down all game and then they just came roaring back at the end with two touchdowns. They still lost by a significant amount, but that would really be my worry. And then I think the way the game plays out, the

Saints should be able to win by ten points. I agree. The Cardinals to me strike me as complete paper tigers. With this schedule. The Saints defense is absolutely legitimate in that dome. They're getting really excited by the way. Of course, there is a question of whether or not Drew Brees is going to play, which could account a little bit of the number. I am going to be shocked if he plays in this game. I believe that they have a bye the week after, right, they do have a

bye the week after that. I can't see any way that they bring them back before the following game against Atlanta. So to the extent that's factoring in, I really wouldn't I expect it to be Bridgewater. It's it hasn't been that, you know, crazy in terms of what the Saints have been able to do. But overall, I think the Saints minus ten in the over under now at forty seven and a half, I agree with with sort of you

know that line being around right. I just don't think this is a game I'm going to touch at those numbers for fear of kind of like the back door cover certainly right by the Cardinals just sitting back a little bit and letting it happen.

Speaker 2

Yeah, yeah, I mean getting it whacked up all the way to ten.

Speaker 3

I mean if even if you're up by seventeen, I mean, if you're up by three possessions, seventeen points, I mean, I just I would have no faith in you know, a defense being in prevent and letting go.

Speaker 2

Lergists.

Speaker 3

It's and that's why the Arizona team scares me that that offense there. I would take a lot of offenses over Arizona's, But in a two minute drill garbage time, I don't think there's there's another offense that I want to see other than Kyler and you know, the receivers and David Johnson, because they play at such a fast pace and I've had to adjust for that a lot.

Speaker 2

Again, I've played a lot of.

Speaker 3

Overs and a lot of opponents team total overs when I'm playing Arizona, but batting against them, honestly is not fun. Yeah, you know the week two against Baltimore. I know, you know, I'm from Phoenix, I live in here now, and I know a lot of people who were on Baltimore in that game, and they were just pulling their hair out watching that game. And I faded Arizona last week against New York and watching that offense.

Speaker 2

When they're hot, they're hot. But I just don't I don't love.

Speaker 3

The matchup this weekend against you know, arguably the best defense will face all year.

Speaker 2

So to me, I took again.

Speaker 3

I took New Orleans at eight and a half. I wouldn't recommend them at ten right now, but I might get involved on the total if it if it gets to forty nine, because then in that case, I'm gonna I'm gonna be on both New Orleans and the other in the spot.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Let's move on now here to the Chargers at the Bears. The Bears are currently laying four and a half. It was five and a half when I saw the look aheadline, and the over under is now at forty and a half, and it was at thirty nine and a half. So like the last game, we've got two teams here going in the same direction, but unlike the other game, they are heading in the wrong direction. The Chargers are coming off their third straight loss, a heartbreaker

to the Titans, which they should have won. If you simulated that game one hundred times, they win probably at the end of ninety nine. They're just a disaster at this point. Russell o'cun should come back this week, I think, and help the offensive line, but they're obviously dealing with injuries all over the place. On the other side, the Bears look they're vonta defense. It just it looks completely vulnerable against a run with a Keen Hicks down. You

saw what Latavi's Murray was able to do. Josh Jacobs had a big game before that. So they're really not looking sort of like that shut down unit that we kind of expected them to be and that they look like early in the season. And again on offense, there's just nothing. Mitchell Trubisky, he returned, but he looked terrible

until you know, late when there was garbage time. David Montgomery is barely being used when he is he's not getting much on the ground, So it's kind of two teams that you don't really want to back either way. But here Bear is now laying four and a half total at forty and a half, what do you think, Yeah.

Speaker 2

You hit the nail on the head.

Speaker 3

There two teams trending out or trending in both directions, you know, the same direction, and it's not up. You know, there are times and I like playing overs between two teams who are really bad because they just really don't care. But I have no play on the total. I lean Chicago in the spot. I don't really take into account hangovers as much to the NFL as I do in college.

Speaker 2

But for LA, this is just a terrible loss.

Speaker 3

A week after getting blown out by the Steelers in prime time. You didn't think it could get any worse, but for some reason, LA found out that it could. And it's weird because I think the Chargers are the only franchise in the NFL that could actually have that happen to them.

Speaker 2

So West Coast team coming East Coast for an early kick.

Speaker 3

Chicago's kind of heard it all on the media about how bad they are. They get a beat up Chargers team. I still think Chicago's we got a lot to play for at three and three on like the two and five Chargers.

Speaker 2

At this spot, i'd lean Chicago minus four and a half.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I kind of like the Chargers at five and a half. I was looking at them right now. This entire game is a stay away, and you know, there is becoming this sort of thing where there are a lot of teams right now where I just do not feel comfortable because I just do not know what I'm going to see from them week in and week out. The Chargers are one, the Titans are one. I don't know if I will ever lay another line on the Titans,

regardless of which way it's going. The Bucks, I never know what I'm going to see out of the Bucks, and I'm seeing that definitely from the Chargers and a little bit from the Bears at this point, if anything. Even at four and a half, I still actually think I kind of lean a little bit towards the Chargers, just because I could see this one being kind of close,

being more of a three point game. I could see the back door cover two even if the Chargers are down, scoring a lay touchdown to to get it within three. Or something like that, and the total at forty and a half. That's fine. I don't really have a lean on that. I would expect that to be around where it is. But overall, this is really not a game. I kind of want to go to you, so let's keep going here. But before we do, I want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, BETMGM. Now

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eight and a half from forty seven. The Bengals are terrible. We talked about it when we were breaking down Arizona's schedule. The offensive line is in complete shambles, The defenses beat up and they can't tackle anyone. They tried against the Jaguars. They kind of kept the close for most of the game, but that's hardly enough to give anybody any sort of app optimism. Meanwhile, the Rams have struggled badly, but certainly the Falcons can make any team feel better. They look

much better there. They're still desjointed, though Todd Garley doesn't look like he's one hundred percent. The receivers aren't really all that involved. The offensive line is still struggling. So at twelve and a half, I still kind of lean the Rams here. It's under the key numbers, of course, but I don't feel great about it. Despite how terrible the Bengals have been. In the over under moving up to forty eight and a half, what do you think.

Speaker 2

Yeah, Cincinnati hasn't seen that.

Speaker 3

I can't say I'm actually gonna say this, like, there are bad teams in the league, and then there's like bad but fun teams that I like, I wouldn't mind watching a full sixteen minutes of Cincinnati's probably one of them. Like, you couldn't pay me to watch a Tennessee game, You couldn't pay me to watch the Dolphins, you couldn't pay me to watch the Redskins.

Speaker 2

But I like, I don't know what it is. I just have o weird h Do.

Speaker 1

You have an actual rationale for this? Because what you're saying makes no sense to me. Because the Bengals are terrible, the Dolphins are terrible, the Redskins are terrible. Why the Bengals, Oh, well, when.

Speaker 3

They had their full when they had their full receiving corpse of Boyd and John Ross and Audentate and you know, the ghost of Tyler Eifert and your boy Joe Mixon, who has I think twelve hundred yards from scrimmage this season. I don't know what it is. They just they always get down early and then they have to throw the ball and they're always in shootouts and I don't know, I just have a weird soft spot for the Bengals.

Speaker 1

This is the weirdest take that I've ever had on this podcast. I'm just letting you know, legitimately the strangest sort of let me just tell you what. I love the Bengals because they're terrible and they throw the ball and I like watching them. I don't get it. Does that influence your thoughts on the actual lines rams like twelve and a half and the over? Are you just like, yeah, I want the over because I want to root for the Bengals and the Dalton to just have a shootout or what.

Speaker 3

That's exactly right. I did play the over in this game. I play almost every Bengals over if it's that's.

Speaker 1

At least something that's actionable, that's a loose like, all right, I think the Bengals are good for the over. That's fine, go for it. So I don't.

Speaker 3

I don't play fantasy, but I always have like this, this this weird rationale of like, oh, I'm sure like a lot of people like love the Bengals because they have BOYD and I'm sure Dalton's like a streamable guy and mixed. I just checked yesterday and mixed it as like two hundred rucking yards.

Speaker 1

Yeah, he does not do anything right now, Joe Mixon in fantasy is like drop a ball. I do not understand anything you're saying about the Bengals, mad, I mean, legitimately, let's just say this. You like the over in this game? Is that fair?

Speaker 2

I thought they are right, I thought they had like three wins.

Speaker 1

But yeah, no, no, they have not won a game. Where are you looking? All right? All right, here's what I.

Speaker 2

Wanted to do. I made I made the total fifty.

Speaker 3

I played the over.

Speaker 1

Okay, that's fine. I actually agree with you on the over here. I think both teams are gonna be able to score. I think the Rams defense is not what it once was, even though of course they added Jalen Ramsey and so it should be fine. But in London, I mean, that's tough that that doesn't number on teams. I expect both teams. I do also like the over, which is why it's moved significantly. And again for me, nobody's going to take your advice on the spread at

this point because you love the Bengals too much. But I actually kind of lean the Rams here at twelve and a half. I expect that to move up a little bit, but I don't know, man, London games are crazy, you know, it's one of the It does throw a little bit of a wrench into it, So I'm fine if it's a stay away for most betters. For me right now, I lean Rams at twelve and a half and I still lean the over even at forty eight and a half. When it was forty seven, I got

in one it. But at forty eight and a half, I'm more than happy.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I think you'll see LA struggle against even somewhat competent defenses. Even last week against Atlanta, seven point seven yards per pass attempt and only two point five rushing yards per attempt, so you know the box score they put up thirty seven points, but really it wasn't. I mean they got set up by some good field position, had benefited from some turnovers and whatnot. So I think LA is a team to monitor going forward. I don't think that.

Speaker 2

Showing against San Francisco was a fluke.

Speaker 3

I think teams more figured out their offensive line is an have some train wreck, but against Cincinnati it doesn't matter. I think they can name the score here and Cincinnati is gonna have to throw the ball. So it's my trade thought for Cincinnati is the same every week, so it's for me, I just submit overs.

Speaker 2

We have Bengals.

Speaker 1

All of that is fair. And you know, aj Green, I don't think has been ruled out yet. I'm not expecting him to play here, and you know they've said he's not going to play before the trade the line, but then today they said we're not rolling him out. So who knows. But I don't really think it matters. I do expect them to be able to move the ball a little bit here more and put up a few points. So I do think that over forty eight and a half right now would be the play. Let's

look at the Jets and Jaguars. The Jaguars here are laying four and a half and the over under is at forty one. Now, you know, we are recording the Sun Monday before the Jets Pats game, so we haven't seen what they look like tonight. But they obviously looked far better against the Cowboys than they had all seasons. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are just kind of treading along. The defense is fine, it's not elite without Jalen Ramsey Minshew magic

is fading a little bit. They do win against the Bengals in a game that the final score doesn't really reflect that it was a closer game through at it now. I don't know about you without seeing tonight, and who knows what's going to happen. I kind of like the Jets here at getting four and a half, and I kind of like the over on forty one. I don't know how you feel about that.

Speaker 2

I'm with you on both.

Speaker 3

I'm really hoping for a low scoring game tonight, something in like the twenty seven to like three range, because I hope this gets pushed down to forty and a half forty. This is one of those games that looks ugly on paper. I think if you tell somebody all that Jets are playing the Jaguars like that total forty one,

that's gross. But like to me, I think that it could be somewhat of a fun game because I think with the Jets run defense being able to bottle up Fournette right now, I think New York's number three and rushing yards per attempt in the league right now, which

is fantastic. I mean, we don't necessarily say that about the Jets defense, but they are good in that category and if they can limit Fournette, and I think I think Jacksonville's offense is a lot better when minshe's throwing the ball because he actually has wide receivers and he's being used in ways that Bortles wasn't used.

Speaker 2

And obviously we didn't.

Speaker 3

Get to see Nick Foles kind of in that offense, but I think it would have been great for him to be able to use these receivers that Jacksonville has.

And for the Jets obviously with Sam Darnold, I mean, he to call it an upgrade over Luke Falk and Travis Simion just doesn't do a justice, you know, with the yards per attempt and actually throwing the ball down the field like there is actually an offensive identity and jackson I've just been playing again Jacksonville overs with Ramsey out, they have just been getting burned.

Speaker 2

They just look like they don't care.

Speaker 3

It was you know we saw last year, like midway through the season they kind of quit and a once elite defense actually looked like Swiss cheese. And it's kind of in the same way with Ramsey out. I mean, they're they're basically letting any anybody do whatever they want to them. Sans Cincinnati last week, before that fourth quarter eruption in points.

Speaker 2

But I'm with you here. Jets plus four and a half, and I'm gonna see if if that total gets pushed down, I'm gonna probably grab some forty one.

Speaker 3

And then if it gets down even to forty and a half forty, if there's a lot scoring game tonight, then I'll probably add more to the over.

Speaker 2

But I'm with you on this one, man.

Speaker 1

Yeah, we're on the same page here, and again, I could see this game playing out in a few different ways. The one way it's really hard for me to see playing out is a Jaguars like dominant performance where they win by like, you know, twenty one or something like that. The Jets really again, you know, you can't take anything from what they look like without Sam Darnold in there. It was an embarrassment. Luke falk is not equipped to be a professional NFL quarterback or anything like that. And

I agree the Jaguars defense. I feel like they still have this reputation because of what they were the last couple of years, and they're just not the same. So I agree, we're both on the same page here. Let's move on to Giants at Lions. The Lions here are laying six and a half. That's down from seven, and the over under has ticked up from forty nine to now fifty. Now, I'm gonna say this, the Lions are the best two three and one team of all time.

They played the Vikings hard on Sunday, just coming up short. They did lose carry On Johnson to a knee injury. I do not know the sparity yet. We're recording on Monday. We're not sure that could be meaningful. I'm not really sure you know whether J. D. McKay sick and Ty Johnson I believe are are going to really be able to make that move there. Meanwhile, the Giants continue to struggle on defense. Daniel Jones has come crashing down to

earth since his hot start. They did get Siquon Barkley back against the Cardinals, but you know, they're really not looking nearly as strong as I were. So how do you feel here? Lions six and a half over under a fifty.

Speaker 3

Yeah. I took the Giants plus seven in this spot mainly just because I made it six and I said, if you know, if I get a six, then I'll think about it. Anything better than that, I was going to fire on and I was lucky to get a seven at minus one twenty. So yeah, this is just basically pulling the trigger on a good number and one that I felt was good. And you know, I don't think we're going to see many sevens throughout the week. I wouldn't be surprised if this one settled six six

and a half. So I grabbed some seven, made it five and a half and said that I would take anything better than that. So I just I just took a good number and hoping that Daniel Jones can can do something.

Speaker 1

I was a little surprised by the total that it's fifty. I mean, I guess that you know that the Lion's offense looks good, but you know, you, especially you're on the spread here, do you have any thoughts on the over unders since you've been all over the other until year.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I made it forty eight and a half. Detroit is a team. They're a weird team. They're a team. I think in the past couple of years we've seen our fair share of fifties.

Speaker 2

And you know, Matt Stafford.

Speaker 3

Mister shootout, you know, and you know they're always playing from behind, they have to throw. But really that's not the identity this season. I think Matt Matt Patricia's gone with the more balanced approach finally because he's got a running back and some guys in the offensive line, and the receiving corpses to me is pretty damn good. Adding Hockinson to Galladay and Jones, is that actually gives them a pretty nice one to or nice one two three.

But yeah, it's weird. It seems like the skill players have gotten better, but the identity has changed and that they want to kind of play ball control.

Speaker 2

And I know last week.

Speaker 3

They got into a shootout with Minnesota obviously trailing and having to trade punches with mister shootout Kirk Cuz since so yeah, I think this total has kind of gotten a little out of hand at fifty. Again, I don't really like playing Unders all that much in the NFL, just because you know, with my luck there the seventeen points going into the fourth and then thirty five in the fourth, but I grabbed New York at seven and I felt really good about it.

Speaker 1

All right, let's move on here to the Bucks at the Titans. The Titans here are now laying two and a half. It wasn't three, so it's gone down a little bit under the key number. The over unders held steady at forty six. The Bucks here are off of bye. They'll try to recover from that disaster against Carolina in London. Meanwhile, the Titans switched to Ryan Tannehill really pays off with the offense. It's not like they put up a ton

of points, but it's certainly moved more. They got involved both Corey Davis and AJ Brown, so it was nice to see sort of the Titans look much more competent on offense. So with the offense looking stronger and the defense being overall solid, how do you feel here Titans laying two and a half over under at forty six.

Speaker 3

So you said that the Chargers are one scene that you don't want anything to do with the season team that I want nothing to do with on a weekly basis, mainly because I just.

Speaker 2

Cannot get a read on this team.

Speaker 3

For the life of me, I haven't won its Titans game since like twenty sixteen. You know, looking at this one, there's probably a ninety percent chance that I will not be on anything in this game. But if I had to go one way in this game, I'm probably going under Tennessee being able to run the balls key for Ryan Tannehill, and the Buccaneers are like number one in the league in rush yards per attempt.

Speaker 2

Which is again, really really weird.

Speaker 3

If you want to beat Tampa Bay, you got to go through their secondary. And I have no problem playing Tampa Bay overs when they're playing offenses that spread out or run play action, but Tennessee just doesn't do that. And I really don't want to buy into Ryan Tannehill. I don't think that this is the right time to do that. But I actually I lean Tampa Bay and I leaned the under.

Speaker 2

In this spot.

Speaker 1

It's my job to talk about these games, so I am contractually obligated to discuss this one. But yeah, three teams Chargers, Bucks, Titans, and this is two of them that I have no read on whatsoever. I can't get it the only I don't have any sense of the spread whatsoever. But I do like the under because I do think that this sets up, again for the reasons that you sort of said, as more of a defensive game, because like you said, the Bucks are strong against the run,

it's very solid. Their defense is overall underrated. I mean, they're weak in the secondary. But again, you know, even though Tannehill got involved all of the receivers this week at least, I don't really expect them to be able to move the ball through the air regularly like the Panthers, for example, were able to do last week. So for me,

I agree, I lean under on forty six. I'm not touching going anywhere, and I don't know what the spread could be which would make me feel confident either way, because I just never know which one of these teams is going.

Speaker 3

To show up. So this is high for a Titans game. At forty six and a half, that's this is a lot of points.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean, I think it's probably reflecting the lack of respect for the Bucks defense, given what you've seen and given the fact that Tannehill was able to finally get the balls to the wide receivers. But for me, I agree with you. I definitely lean the under. Let's move on to the Eagles at the Bills. Bills here favored by one and a half and the over under at forty two and a half. Bills don't look, you know, particularly impressive beating the Dolphins, even though they won by

ten points. They do get the win here they're always tough at home. The Eagles are in absolute shambles. They're beat up hard by the Cowboys on Sunday Night. Despite all the sharp money pounding the Eagles coming into that game, everybody loved them. They can't stop the pass at all. But that's not really the Bill's strength. So I get I think why the spread is as close to as it is. But what do you think here in Buffalo, Bill's laying one and a half over under forty two and a half.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I took the under at forty two and a half.

Speaker 3

And this kind of falls in line basically with what I talked about with Tampa Bay and with Houston.

Speaker 2

Philadelphia kind of fits the same.

Speaker 3

Bill there where I want to play all Philly overs against teams that can throw the ball, that line up in three four wide receiver sets and just kind of run play action.

Speaker 2

Philly gets burned by play action more.

Speaker 3

Than almost any other team in the league, and Josh Allen right now, I believe is twentieth in the league in play action attempts. So yeah, it just comes down to Buffalo's skill players not really having the ability to stretch the field to beat Philadelphia. I think this game's kind of played in the trenches, and I think that this is a pretty bad matchup for Carson Wentz against a pretty good Buffalo secondary. Last week obviously wasn't a really good sign for them giving up twenty one to

the Ryan Fitzpatrick lad Dolphins. But still, I think both edges go to the defenses here. And I played the under at forty.

Speaker 2

Two and a half.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I think that's fair. I think this is right about where i'd peg this both ways. I just don't have a good sense of it. I agree the game does not set up particularly well for a high scoring game, one hundred percent correct, because again, like you said, really where you can attack the Eagles is through their secondary, which is always banged up and terrible generally, but they're pretty stout against the run. And you know you're not gonna rely on Josh Allen to torch a secondary. That's

just not what he does. He's too inaccurate to do it. He moves the ball well and again his ability to scramble, but they like they really prefer to rely on their ground game if they can. Meanwhile, the Eagles they're just I mean, there's too many things missing right now from that offense. I mean even that pass yesterday to Aguilar, are you just watching that as that long bomb that they had where he could have got it and get into, you know, the end zone, and he just kind of

doesn't get there. And that's just kind of been what the Eagles have been all year. So if I did lean one way, it would be the under, but I don't have a strong feeling on it, so it's more of a game. I think that I'd probably take a pass on Panthers at forty nine ers. The odds are moving a little bit here in favor of the Panthers. It opened at minus six. It's now forty nine ers laying five, and the over under has come down to point two. It was forty two and a half. It's

down to forty one and a half. We are going to get Kyle Allen again here as the starter for the Panthers. Ron Rivera came out and named him, and he has game managed his way to victory. Sometimes it looks kind of impressive, but mostly he's just, you know, keeping things moving for the Panthers offense. The defense is playing much better of late, particularly the run defense, catching up to what has been pretty consistently a very strong

pass defense of the forty nine ers. They continue to roll, they deal with them onsoon, and they remain undefeated against Washington. I kind of expected the Kyle us Check injury would be a bigger deal. I can't really say that it's

made a huge difference. I mean, they didn't put up a lot of points against the Redskins, and they didn't put up a lot of points against the Rams necessarily, but I still think that, you know, you see the creative play calling, and I'm not really willing to write it off, but they're strong, obviously undefeated on both sides of the ball. How do you feel here at forty nine ers minus five again trending down and the over under at forty one and a half.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I missed the boat here at six. I should have grabbed Carolina when it was up. Obviously, now it's down to five, you know, San Francisco obviously, Like you could talk about the schedule and how they've won their games, like they're still six and zero, Like they've played, like their defense is like very very good. I obviously the biggest question mark here is Jimmy Garoppolo, who hasn't really played.

Speaker 2

All that well.

Speaker 3

I think this past game against Washington despite the weather, you know, they won, despite hosting like four point something yards per play. I mean, it was just ugly. But you know, this is a team that's that's kind of at the peak of their market price and a team that you're probably looking to sell at some point. And I think if you got a six, this is a

pretty good spot. Carolina off a bike. Again, we've talked about teams on the road coming off buys and how how great they've been over the past couple of years, and Carolina, you know this this is an East Coast going to West Coast, but you know it's a four h five kick, So I don't really think you need to do it just for anything there.

Speaker 2

And really, Kyle.

Speaker 3

Allen's played exceptionally well in place of Cam Newton. He looks really comfortable. This is obviously gonna be as tough as test. But I really wish I would have grabbed a six. I really missed the boat on that. I should have been a little bit more alert there.

Speaker 2

But again, you.

Speaker 3

Know, spreads are not key for me in terms of the total. I think, honestly I would lean over here at forty and a half. It's just not a lot of points. And I know, I know San Francisco has been an under team, Carolina has kind of been split. They've had their kind of wide range of games this season. But at forty and a half, man, that's not a lot of points for those two teams to get there. Obviously, with the run defenses being as good as they are, I think you're going to see a lot of throwing

between Kyle Allen and Jimmy Garoppolo. So I lean you know, I don't have any play here on the on the side at six. If you got it at six, great, I don't really know what five does for you, but I would lean over here at forty and a half with.

Speaker 1

The number going down, Yeah, the number actually is what I am seeing, at least for the consensus is now at forty one and a half. So I don't know whether or not that makes a difference to you there. I mean, it's at one point. But regardless, I think we're viewing this as the same way. I think both teams are going to be able to put up some points here. I don't expect it to be a crazy shootout or anything like that, but I do think that both offenses are you know, better kind of at least

the forty nine ers better than they've showed in recent weeks. Again, the Panthers have a great defense, and they're trending up and they're coming off a buy, so you know they have plenty of time to game plan for this. But in terms of the spread, at least I agree at six, I like the Panthers. At five, I still think I leaned towards the Panthers, but I certainly not as strong as I once felt. And for the total, still at forty one and a half, I'm still leaning the over,

but not strongly. So before we finish up with our last few games, I want to mind everyone about our October giveaway. It is a signed Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland Brown's helmet. You can go to betting pros dot com slash contest for more details, but to enter, just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com, and entry into any contest gets you

automatically entered into all future contests. So take your two seconds, support the show and maybe win a free helmet. All right, let's move on to Raiders at Texans. The Texans here are laying six and a half. It was at seven, but it's down six and a half. The over under is at fifty one. The Raiders defense completely gashed by Aaron Rodgers, but their offense actually played pretty well despite all the injuries they've got going on, like Tyro Williams

being out with planterfesci iis. They blew plenty of scores here in the red zone, like their car fumbling through the end zone, so the game could have been a lot tighter. Meanwhile, the Texans is a very tough game to the Colts. They also lose Will Fuller, who's got a hamstring string. He's definitely going to be out for at least this week to the extent that matters to you,

but they've generally played well overall. So we've got the Raiders at the Texans with the Texans lank six and a half and a pretty high over under a fifty one. How do you feel?

Speaker 3

Yeah, you know what, this this is a weird game for me because i feel like I'm not adjusting enough for the Texans offense as well as their defense because I made this forty nine and a half and I was gonna get involved on the under at fifty one. But I'm starting to have some second thoughts. Houston's secondary is obviously terror like terrible as an understatement, given that

they are starting. I believe the Pro Football Focus ranked their cornerbacks number one hundred and twenty one and one hundred and twenty two out of one hundred and twenty two cornerbacks, so they are legitimately starting the two worst cornerbacks in the in the league. And then you know, I've talked myself into, ok, well, you know Oakland's running this West Coast horizontal offense, and you know they're not. They don't really necessarily have a guy who can stretch

the field vertically unless you know it's Tyrol Williams. Obviously he's been dealing with some injuries. I've gone back and forth on this game a hundred times. You know, you could talk about Houston's offense and how good it is and how they should just pick apart Oakland's secondary, as Aaron Rodgers did last weekend, and then he talked about will Fuller and how key he is to the offense and stretching the field for Nuke, and I've kind of

gone back and forth on this. I have no no lean on the spread, but I would in this case, per my numbers, I would lean to the under at fifty one. Although I think if you're gonna do that, this is just a game that you just do not watch because it could get it could get really ugly, really quick, and it could get into a track meet pretty pretty damn fast.

Speaker 1

I'll be honest, I lean a little bit towards the over. I know it's a high number here, but you know, I mean, it's you.

Speaker 3

You.

Speaker 1

I can hear you. You're hesitant. I know what you're saying. You're saying my number.

Speaker 3

Yes, I'll probably it's funny because I'm probably gonna this is gonna be one of those games where I have nothing involved in it, and by you know, eleven to fifty five, five minutes before kick, I'm be like, you know what, I might just playing a way, just go score points and it'll be side of three and.

Speaker 1

A half and not that I mean in the end, I think I think really what it does come down to is the fact that the Raiders, you know, even I mean, somehow without tyroll Williams. I mean, yesterday it was Darren Waller, of course, but Josh Jacobs looks legitimate. He's also getting a little more involved in the passing game, which I really like. They can score. Their offensive scheme is working for them, so I do expect them to be able to put up points, especially given the concerns

about the Texans secondary that you mentioned. And on the flip side, look, you can attack the Raiders any way you want. I mean, and the Texans can. They showed last week, you know, before they faced the Cults, they leaned heavily on Carlos hide there. He had a ginormous game. I believe it was against the Chiefs. Yeah, right, against the Chiefs, sort of their revenge game. But they're able to lean on Hide in Duke Johnson if they really want to. But Deshaun Watson can really do whatever he wants.

I get will Fuller is a loss, But you know, Kenny still is being healthy. He kind of stepped right in.

He kind of fills that role kicking QT is still there, so I think this is just going to be a massive shootout, and I really do I lean over watching watching the Raiders in recent weeks has basically made me come around on their offense, especially what they were able to do Green Bay, which I admit is sort of not quite as strong as we thought originally with their pass defense, but it's still a pretty strong pass defense, and they easily could have put up like thirty five points on that deep.

Speaker 3

Yeah, the Raiders are so weird because they're not really this big play type of Loddens, but they just they can eat up six seven yards at a time. And if you're getting seven every time, you're chewing up five six minutes, like that's that's good enough, you know what I mean, Like as long as you're scoring seven and not having to go, you know, and then you're not settling for field.

Speaker 2

Goals in the red zone.

Speaker 3

Those that's the difference between going over and under and getting into a shootout with Aaron.

Speaker 2

Rodgers obviously played a factor in that.

Speaker 3

But yeah, this is either going to be a game that ends up twenty to seventeen or it's gonna be forty to thirty five and we're going to be like, well, that was the stupidest total.

Speaker 1

Of all time. So yeah, no, I agree that that's a really good point. And again, the Raiders, I do feel a little bit more confident, and I have no confidence in their defense. So that's a good recipe. Browns at pats here, Patriots laying ten the over under at forty five and a half. Again, we have not yet seen the Patriots tonight against the Jets. Their defense is tremendous, the offense is a little bit hit or miss with

all the injuries, Josh Gordon not playing tonight. And meanwhile the Browns they just can't seem to get it together. They lost a tough game to Seattle where they were way ahead. The sharp play was all over them in that game. So how do you feel here? Patriots at home lank ten to the Browns over under at forty five and a half.

Speaker 3

Yeah, as much as I have faded the Browns this year, I think tens a lot of points.

Speaker 2

Really.

Speaker 3

You know, this was a primetime spot, and we obviously know how great Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been in prime time.

Speaker 2

You know, to me, tens, just tens is too much. And I think it comes down to what we kind of talked about in.

Speaker 3

The Arizona New Orleans game, where you know, I think this is a fourteen fifteen to sixteen point game.

Speaker 2

The obviously the back door is gonna be be crucial here.

Speaker 3

I might get involved in the total. The over at forty five and a half, I'm glad it's dropped again. I'm hoping for another, you know, like we talked about low scoring games today, maybe pushed that total down a little bit more. But I have been impressed with Cleveland's defense at times when healthy. I think Greedy Williams and Denzel Award have played exceptionally well despite being in their second and first years. You know, with if Josh Gordon's out,

I think it becomes a lot easier. And I think, uh, I think there's enough talent on Cleveland's offense. If Freddy Kitchens unless unless he just continues to be a train wreck offensively calling plays, I still think ten in the spots a little too much, even though i've I've I've faded Cleveland more times than I've played him this season.

Speaker 1

So did you say you lean towards the over? I do? Yeah, yeah, no, no, I did too. I just want to make sure that's what you said, because then you start making some some decent points about the defense frankly, and I was like, yeah, no.

Speaker 3

Just to kind of and obviously it's funny because you could you could make the case however you want, and there are always two sides to it. But you know, in this case, I do like the upside that Cleveland's pass secondary has against Tom Brady.

Speaker 2

If if you know Josh.

Speaker 3

Gordon's not available, obviously they're gonna scheme and they're score points. But you know, in terms of being able to kind of stay in this game and keep it within range, I don't think it's going to be a blaw and it's gonna have to be because again, like we talked about it, this is a fourteen to fifteen point game. You know, the back door is wide open, and Tens just getting double digits, even though Cleveland's probably not the team that we thought they were going to be on paper.

Obviously we know they look good, but Tens ten to me in this spot, it's just is just too much get getting double digits.

Speaker 1

Yep, I completely agree. I leaned towards the Browns and I lean towards the over I don't feel great about, you know, going with the Browns just because they're another team who I feel like I don't really know what I'm gonna see right now, from you guys, but coming off the buy Pats off a short week, assuming nothing crazy happens tonight, of course, I agree ten just seems too high, and the over under yeah, I think both teams are going to be able to move the ball

at bit and put up. Obviously the Patriots will, but I do think that the Browns are going to be able to move the ball even on the tough Pats d Let's move on here to the Packers at the Chiefs. This one has obviously swung wildly since it originally opened, which was I believe the Chiefs laying four points when Mahomes was healthy. It is now all the way up to the Packers laying four points. The over und are

still at forty eight. DeVonta Adams probably still going to be out here for the Packers, is my guest, but Aaron Rodgers was completely dominant against the Raiders. As we discussed before. How do you feel here, Packers playing four total at forty eight?

Speaker 3

Well, I wish Mahomes was playing because I would have played the over at anything sixty three or lower.

Speaker 2

I'm not kidding you.

Speaker 3

That would have been just the most fun game of all time. So this sounds funny because Green Bay's defense runs out of dime most of the time, and if you look over the past few weeks, they've just been giving rushing yards up like candy on Halloween. And unfortunately Kansas City doesn't necessarily have a rush offense. They've tried to get Lashawn McCoy involved. Damian Williams is I don't

even know if he's alive anymore. So this would have been a great matchup if you're playing a running team, but obviously, with Casey's tendency to pass the ball, with Andy Reid's system, I don't think it boats necessarily well for them. Kansas City at home, I know home in road defensive splits are kind of noisy, but Kansas City's typically been better.

Speaker 2

Defensively at home than they have been on the road.

Speaker 3

In all honesty, I kind of lean under here at forty eight, and I like the Chiefs plus four haven't gotten involved in this game just because it gets it always gets so tricky when you're talking about backup quarterbacks, and obviously, with Mahomes, who's arguably the best player in the league, it's kind of tough to pinpoint in an adjustment here. I know, last week, you know, more stepped in for a couple of quarters or whatever. We don't have a big enough sample size. But man, this is

just this is too tricky for me. But honestly, I would lean the under the spot at forty eight. And to be honest, I don't know if I'll get involved yet because this is a game that could also get stupid if the skill players can do anything for Matt Moore, because there's a huge advantage for them against green Bay secondary.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I don't feel great about the total, but I agree with you that I lean Chiefs here getting four. And you know the thing about Matt Moore, I mean he's not in the same stratosphere of course as Patrick Mahomes, but he's one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. This is essentially sort of coming off like a mini bi because they played on Thursday, so you know what Andy Reid does when he gets extra time to prepare.

That's a tough place to play. It doesn't matter, you know, I know they they haven't you know, they lost to Indianapolis and stuff, and so you know, you're thinking about what it's like to play at Arrowhead. But it's historically been a really really difficult place to play. The Packers are coming off this monstrous when they still don't have many offensive skill playmakers, right. I mean, they've got the running backs, but they don't you know, Marcus Valdez Scantling

isn't really doing it Toronto, Mo Allison. Those guys are not going to scare you. And in the end, the Chiefs are getting a little healthier on defense. They looked good. You know, you don't want to you don't want to take too much from the Broncos, but they looked like they're getting a little bit better on defense, and they are getting a little healthier. So I agree with you with that where I lean initially with the Chiefs on four, and I bet you as this gets bet up because

it was at three, it's at four. The Packers are a really public team. I bet you you're gonna see some sharp money here hitting the Chiefs at some point. So I'm fine to jump on a at four. Let's move on to our final game, Dolphins at the Steelers. Steelers here are now laying fourteen and a half. It was sixteen and a half, So my guess is some money came in here on the Dolphins at that inflated spread, the over under state steady at forty three. The Dolphins

are what they are. The offense is kind of borderline competent when Ryan Fitzpatrick is under center, and meanwhile for the Steelers, Mason Rudolph should return. But the Steelers offense is successful basically on a pure gimmick. I mean, they're just doing all sorts of crazy things. The defense has been very, very strong, particularly since Mike Fitzpatrick came over. So how do you feel here? Steelers playing fourteen and a half over under at forty three.

Speaker 4

So this game is so weird because early on in the season, when when Fitzpatrick was benched and Rosen came in, I started jumping on the Miami Dolphins over bandwagon because I'm like, okay, well you got Josh Rosen.

Speaker 2

He's an upgrade, kind of really has you know, nothing to lose.

Speaker 3

It's and sure enough, like Ryan Fitzpatrick is the guy who has more air yards per a tent than Josh Brosen, and then on the opposite side, Devlin Hodges has more yards per attempt than Mason Rudolph. So it's just one of those games where everything's kind of ass backwards to me, I don't have a play on this game. I made it thirteen and I made it forty two. I don't know how much you can take away from from last week's game against the Bills, where the offense kind of

kind of looked competent against Buffalo. You know, there were some times when Miami got bailed out by penalties, and you know, if it's Patrick kind of just made some other worldly throws in about time of Miami overhit. I think I was like zher and four betting overs this year. So I finally got one last weekend. But you know, I wish I could have could end the show in a bang with a play. But really, I doubt I'm

going to be involved here on the spreader total. There are probably some player props I'll get involved in, but spread in total, I really this game just doesn't appeal to me from a viewing standpoint or a betting standpoint.

Speaker 2

To be perfectly honest with you, man.

Speaker 1

This is such a terrible way for us to go out, because I completely agree I have nothing on this game whatsoever. And I was like, man, I hope Alex has something coming in because I'm looking at this and I'm just like, uh no, not really. I mean, I don't even have a lean. I really don't. I just I just don't feel good about either of these numbers at this point. You know, I'm not even gonna offer anything. I'm not even gonna try to fill time because I don't have it.

I've got nothing going on. So it's an unfortunate way for us to end the show. But overall, I mean, it was fun giving your Bengals bit. I feel like we really saved it, So I'm not I'm not all that concerned about it.

Speaker 3

I need a soundboard with just just tidbits from that part, because that's fantastic. I can't believe that you don't view the Bengals like that. I can't believe that, Like I live in this this alternate universe where I'm like the only one who thinks that the Bengals are like a fun bad team. You know.

Speaker 1

So if you're listening out there and you are a therapist who specializes in obsession with Bengals, then please give Alex a call. He's gonna remind you right now where you can find more of him and his work ahead out Yeah.

Speaker 3

You can find me at the Score dot Com obviously download the app. We have everything we're covering now college.

Speaker 2

Football and NFL.

Speaker 3

We're also gonna be doing some some world serious stuff.

Speaker 2

We always have hockey stuff. I'm gonna be doing some.

Speaker 3

Horse racing stuff this weekend. So anything under the sun that's bettable, you could probably find it at the Score and then you can follow me on Twitter at ajkloj.

Speaker 2

I'm not gonna spell that out for you.

Speaker 3

Because you know, if if you can't get it right by now, then really.

Speaker 1

There's we don't have enough time on the show it But go back to the beginning of the show and you can listen. Alex is a great follow on Twitter. You can tell he's he's got a lot of fantastic insights, so make sure to give him a follow. Alex, thanks again for coming back on the show. I hope we can do it at least once more before the NFL season ends, hope.

Speaker 2

So Dan, thanks very much and go Bengals.

Speaker 1

You bet all right, Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and use the promo code Harris to get your risk refirst wager of up to five hundred dollars, and don't forget to rate and review the podcast. Send the screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com for your chance to win a signed Odell Beckham Junior Brown's helmet. We'll be back later this week giving some of our best bets for week eight, I'll talk to you the

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