Hey there everyone. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. It is time for our early look at next week's lines, and with me to break it all down is Sean Green, the co creator and co host of the Sports Gambling podcast. You can find him on Twitter at Shawn T. Green. Shawn, thanks for coming back on the show. How's it going?
Oh man? Great? Thanks for having me. Yeah, kind of a weird Week six, but yeah, looking forward to breaking down these weeks seven lines.
How was it for you? By the way, cause I'm going to have full disclosure. I will talk about it on our Thursday show where we make our actual picks. But I hit all my picks that I listed on the show. But I pretty much otherwise was terrible for the week. I just did not have a good sense for this week. Every time I almost tried to go contrarian at times to be like, well this is what you know, almost against the public, but just wasn't really working for me. How about you? Were you relatively on
point this week or yea? Really?
Yeah? So you know, my big moves as far as betting, I you know, like the five picks for the NFL Super Contest, I went, I went three and two, and you know, kind of onto, like I think eleven and four the last fifteen. But yeah, I mean I started off rough, but I feel like I'm kind of dialed in. A couple of things threw me off this week. I love that Steelers play. I'm kicking myself for not taking more action on it. But yeah, and hit my lock
which was Seattle, so that was good. But the rest the stuff, the stuff I didn't feel great about, I was off on. But the stuff I felt really good on I was hitting, So that's kind of that always feels good.
I'm kind of the opposite. Unfortunately in the Super Contest, I went one and four this week, and I started off like twelve and three and was just a marching. I don't know. I was just off this week. But we're gonna get back on track in the meantime. However, first let's just take a look at all the week seven lines on an early basis. Now, we're gonna be
using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. Unless this is your first time listening to this podcast, you know that the consensus odds are an aggregation of the odds that are available in the market. As always, there are going to be differences at the various sportsbooks, so make sure to shop around for the best odds. Also, if you want to see how some of the top sports betting experts are leaning on any given bet at any given time, bettingpros dot Com is going to show
you that too. All right, chum, let's dive right in here with the Chiefs at the Broncos on Thursday night. The Chiefs currently laying three and a half. The over under is at forty nine. I checked earlier today it was at fifty, so it's dropped a bit. Two teams kind of heading in opposite directions a bit here. The Chiefs coming off back to back losses, the Broncos back to back wins. We're in Denver, it's a short week. How do you feel here?
Yeah, I mean, I guess I'm kind of surprised that the chief spread wasn't a little higher. I mean, their history against the Broncos, their ats history, I thought they would have opened it a little higher. But yeah, I guess they're just kind of riding. I think there could be a little recency bias in this line because the Chiefs have lost to in a row, the Broncos have won two in a row. Are the Broncos really that red hot? Are the Chiefs really that bad? I guess
we'll find out Thursday night. But I honestly I thought this. If I had a guess this spread, I would have thought they would make it a little bit higher and put it closer towards six.
Honestly, I could not agree with you more. And I get worried when I see line like that because I feel like, you know, the Chiefs are generally been a public team. I don't know if the if the books are banking on the fact that maybe because they've lost now the last two games, that maybe the public's going to be off it. But this game to be screams take the Chiefs. And that always makes me a little word. And I assume they know that the public is going to hammer the Chiefs on it, and I think they
are in the early going here. I mean the Broncos. The Broncos weren't as bad, you know, as an zero to four team that they started out because they were in a lot of those games, right, of course, but really, the Chiefs can score on anyone, it doesn't matter how many injuries they have on the offensive side of the ball. I'm not sure if Sammy Watkins is going to be back heel here, Tyreek Hill came back, they're running backs
whoever they use there. They're all healthy right now, lash Damian Williams, right, Darrel Williams, so you know, and Mahomes didn't seem that limited by the ankle that cropped up, so they're gonna be able to put up points here. And the Broncos have you know, Okay, great, you beat the Titans that are in disarray so much so that they benched Marcus Mariotta in the beginning. And the Chargers, you're kind of seeing here were kind of paper tigers
with how badly they were beaten last night. You mentioned it with the Steelers, so it's not like they've been overly impressive there. So for me, I completely agree with you. I really expected this line to be higher. Thursday lines don't usually move that much. We're recording on Monday afternoon. They don't usually move that much from the time we record, But if anything, I would expect it maybe to dip
a little bit in the Chiefs direction. But I'm a little worried because I had the same reaction that you did. So it is something where we're gonna watch. But I agree, I expected it to be much higher, and I wouldn't be surprised. If you like the Broncos, I'd wait, you know, because I think I highly doubt it's going to get down to three or anything like that. If anything, it's gonna get higher.
Yeah, the late money will probably push this up.
Yeah, I agree. Raiders at Packers here, Packers laying six and a half over under at forty six and a half. As I mentioned, we're recording this on Monday afternoon, that is, before Monday night football. Let's assume going into this right now, no major injuries coming for the Packers tonight. Let's also assume that Devanta Adams does not play, because it sounds like it's still a little bit of a long term injuries.
And I know wide receivers don't really move the line all that much, but when we're thinking about it, I'm sure the odds makers are taking that into consideration. On the other side of the wall, Raiders are a little frisky, you know, they might even becoming like a public team a little bit. They're coming off the bye and off of beating up on the Bears out in London. Packers are on a short week versus the Raiders on a buy How do you feel here? Six and a half over under forty six and a half?
Yeah, I mean, I just think this is no respect for the Raiders. By the book here, I would have had this a little bit lower. And I'm a guy who I talked a ton of crap about John Gurden a ton of craft on this Raiders team. He doesn't know what he's doing. This team's gonna be a disaster. And they've looked pretty competent. I mean they beat the Bears, they beat the Colts like those are quality wins in London, in Indianapolis. I mean that that West Coast to London
trip is insane. Yeah, I was surprised it's this high for the Raiders. And again, like you pointed out, the rest disparity Monday to a bye week, that's a pretty big difference. And yeah, I guess I'm this feels a little high to me.
Honestly, No, it does to me too. I think that odds makers probably just you know, the Packers are so public, and I'm sure they just kind of take that into consideration, right but I think right now, look, I don't want to take anything away from the Packers, you know, barring what they look like tonight. You know, I really hope they don't just completely come out and lay an egg, because no, they've they've been good. You know, it's not
overly impressive without the Vonta Adams. You know, they ran all over the Cowboys, not necessarily that that's gonna be the case, although again, the Raiders don't have a great run defense right now. Vontez Berwick is now for the season. You know, they've had injuries to their linebackers, so maybe they're just thinking about that. And of course their Packers are going to be home at Lambeau. But really, I mean, coming off the bye versus coming off the short week,
that really makes me nervous. So I don't think we're gonna get past the key number here of seven. But I agree I kind of expected it to be a little closer. My guess is this is where it ends up. It has not moved, and again the Packers haven't played yet, but it hasn't moved I don't think since the look aheadline, so we're probably right on where it's gonna be. Let's
move on to the Dolphins at the Bills. I can't remember last time the Bills were favored by sixteen and a half with an over under on thirty nine and a half. I do want on a record that on Thursday's show, I did pick the Dolphins to and I was never worried about it, not for a second. I don't know if I'm going to pick them to cover here. Look, we actually don't even know who the starting quarterback is
at the moment for the Dolphins. I think they came out and basically said that we still view Josh Rosen as the starter. So maybe that's the case. Ryan Fitzpatrick certainly looked a little better this week against the Redskins. Meanwhile, the Bills look I undersold their defense completely. I refuse to buy into it for like the first three games, but it is absolutely legitimate. They're coming off the buye.
They may get Devin Singletary back. I don't know what to do with these giant lines, So I mean, what are you doing here? Bills sixteen and a half over under thirty nine and a half at home.
Yeah, I mean, it's crazy the NFL we're living in, where these giant spreads keep covering. It doesn't make sense because normally in the NFL it's such there's so much parody, and you get these giant numbers, you just blindly take them. But they've actually the giant numbers have been good for the favorites. And you mentioned when one is the last time the Bills have been favored by this much? I actually looked it up. I saw online it was the
regular season opener back in nineteen ninety three. They were fourteen point favorites. So this is insane.
This is why I bring you on the podcast, Okay, because you're gonna do the research and look that stuff up for me. Well, I mean, what do you think? All right? Right now you have to make a call. I'm not going to really hold you to it. But if you had to make a call, is this line something that you would be going for the Bills or what?
Yeah? And I think you gotta take the Bills here even though this because what we're dealing with here, the Dolphins their historical anomaly, right, I mean, think about it. The Redskins fired their coach last week and they were three and a half point road favorites. I tried to find the research on that. I couldn't find another time when someone fired the team was going so bad they fired their coach, and yet they were laying points on the road. Insane. And this Dolphins team doesn't travel. This
Bill's defense is legit. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised that this score was like seventeen to nothing.
Well what you say, by the way, just to make that clear, I do like the under I realized it's a low number, thirty nine and a half. But I mean the Dolphins, I can't imagine that they're going to be able to do anything. I mean, the Redskins have a terrible defense. Put aside whatever you want to say about case Keenum getting back in there and focusing on the run and Adrian Peterson and Terry mclaur and all that stuff. They have a terrible defense. Okay, they're not
able to really, you know, hold anybody in check. And you know, the Dolphins got to sixteen points by replacing Rosen with fitzmagic over there, but they're not what are they going to put up? You know, maybe ten? You might give them a touchdown if everything breaks right. And you know, the Bills, while they're certainly a competent football team, they're not an offensive juggernaut. I don't care who the defense is on the other side. So thirty nine and a half I kind of like the under here.
Yeah, I mean, look just look at what that Patriots team when they went into Buffalo. Now granted, this Pats team, as far as the offense isn't firing on all cylinders, but they really struggled to put up points in a you know, in Buffalo where they've traditionally had success of being able to score on the Bills. And I think it just shows how good this Bills defense is.
Yeah. Well, if for me, I mean I lean the under and I lean the Bills. I mean I I you know, not by a strong mount just because I don't think the Bills are really the type of team is gonna put up twenty four points, you know, in any even weak or anything like that. So the sixteen and a half is a lot. But you know what, I made my money banging on the Dolphins to cover they covered against the Redskins, and I think I'm moving on from them, So let's also move on to two.
Kind of dumpster fire of teams over here, Rams at Falcons. Rams are currently laying three and a half. The early line was three, so it's moved a little bit in favor of the Rams. The over under here is at a whopping fifty three. I mean, look, the Falcons offense, it's great, Matt Ryan is playing great. The defense cannot stop anyone whatsoever. Meanwhile, Jared Goff is coming off a game where he threw for seventy eight yards against the forty nine ers. The offense looks completely out of sorts.
We don't know about whether Todd Girl or Key to Leave is gonna play here. This feels like to me a spot for the Rams to kind of get right a little bit. I think the Falcons are just kind of done until dan Quinn is fired. What do you think?
Yeah, I mean this Falcons team, they've really really checked out. I mean, yeah, they're they're figuring out ways to lose in all different fashions. You're totally right on a possible get right game for this Rams team. This offense, they're in a dome going up against a horrible defense. If Jared Goff can't get it going here, I just don't think you can get it going three and a half
as far as the number probably makes sense. But I wouldn't be surprised if this gets bet up a little bit, because I mean, the Falcons have just looked horrible any scenario, and even ATS, I don't think they can give this Falcons team enough points. But yeah, people are out on golf, and I've made fun of golf for a long time. Now I say, I say I'm the owner of Jared Goff Sucks Island because.
I don't know if it's an island anymore. Yeah, you know, a continent at this point.
Yeah, it's an island in the same way that Australia is an island or whatever. It's just growing. But yeah, I totally agree Cup. I think and golf they get going here, So I think I think this actually may go up, and if you like the Rams, you may be able to find a minus three somewhere and you may want to bet that now.
And I'm not kidding. I mean I'd take it at three and a half and not be overly concerned about it. I think if you like the Rams getting now, I don't think it's going back to three. Nobody in their right, mind can back Atlanta at this point. A lot of people did, myself included back then, you know, the spread went. I believe they were originally laying one to the Cardinals. Then they wound up laying two and a half by the time it closed, and that of course didn't go well.
Although if Matt Brian had hit you know, an extra point, perhaps they would have done it. But in the end, this look, the Rams have to get right. I get there's a blueprint on them right now about how to kind of contain them, But in the end you got to get pressure on goth to make them uncomfortable, and I just don't think the Falcons are going to be
able to do that. So I do think you know, I get that it's an away game, But if you like the Rams personally as I do, I think i'd get in on it now because it's not going to get lower. I don't think it's going back to three. If you can get a three, get in now. But if you like them also, I think it's a better chance that it rises, you know, more like Rams four could close at four and a half or something like that, as opposed to three and a half.
Yeah, I mean there's a blueprint out on Jared Goff, but I don't trust the Atlanta Falcons to figure out any sort of blueprint.
Yeah, no, absolutely. Let's move on to the Vikings at the Lions. Really interesting game. The Vikings here are laying one the over unders at forty four. Again, we have not seen how the Lions are going to look tonight, but they've been pretty impressive. I mean, they could easily be four to oh heading into tonight's game. They've been doing it with all around solid play on both sides
of the ball. On the other side, the Vikings kind of look like they're getting right a little bit, look to be tightening the ship despite the fact that everybody is, you know, complaining and everything like that. The passing game gets going a little bit into admittedly really soft matchups against the Giants and the Eagles. Eagles have a fine defense, but it's all about stopping the run. They're really vulnerable in their secondary to essentially pick them here, Vikings saying
one over underd forty four. What do you think?
Yeah, I mean, I think this spread is probably a little inflated on the Viking side because everyone saw Kirk Cousins go off and they're like, oh, Kirk Cousins, good is good. Yeah, let's hop on the Kirk Cousins bandwagon. You're probably to me, it felt like a little inflated. I mean, I'm a diehard Eagles fan, and I was seriously worried about our cornerbacks going into that game. I mean, they just couldn't cover. I mean, it was really that simple.
And Kirk Cousins got the touchdowns, he got it done. But I do feel like this is a little inflated. I think if the Lions have a competitive game, or if the Lions win, you could see this definitely switch to Lions even I mean again, I wouldn't. I would have set this line closer to Lions minus three, because I think these are two pretty successful teams, pretty solid teams so far this year, both Dome teams. It's a
division matchup. I just don't know what what I've seen that makes the Viking so strong to be this much of a or just to be a road favorite in the division game.
I feel like it's I feel like it's a little bit of undervaluing the Lions, to be honest, generally, and I feel like the bookmakers have done that all year. I mean the Packers lines, and I think it opened at minus six. It might have closed at minus four or something like that. Before that, you know, against the Chiefs, you know, every everybody was all over the Chiefs, I guess on that one, and the Lions wound up covering. So I kind of feel like the Lions still aren't
quite getting the respect they deserve. I don't. I don't know necessarily if I agree that it should be the Lions favored by three, this does feel much more like a pick em to me, and I think you'd agree. You don't. You wouldn't expect the line to actually get anywhere close to the right.
I mean, no, no, no, I'm just saying in my head, these teams feel closer to even, and especially in the division matchup. Yeah, I think it would. On a neutral field, I guess I would probably have the Vikings by maybe a point, so then you factor in home field. But you're right, I don't think the number will actually move to that. So yeah, if you like the Vikings, maybe you're right, it probably gets to a pick. But yeah, a lot of that'll determine on what happens tonight.
Yeah, in the end, this game is going to be about who you think is going to win. Before we move on, I want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. You know about betmgm already, and in particular the bet mgm Sports App because it's the easiest and best way to place a bet. If you're in the state of New Jersey. Just search for and download the bet mgm Sports app on your phone or visit betmgm dot com, sign up for an account, and you can place a bet right from your home.
And once you sign up for an account, you really need to pay attention because bet mgm offers boosted bets and promotions across all major sports, so you'll occasionally get these preposterous odds on various bets that are not available anywhere else in the market. They also let you track your bet in real time, and they offer early cash outs where you can settle a bet before the game ends to lock in winnings or cut your losses. And if you sign up right now, you can get a
free five hundred dollars bet. Here's the deal. When you download the betmgm Sports app and you sign up using our promo code Harris, then your first bet of up to five hundred dollars is risk free. If you lose, bet mgm is going to credit you the amount you lost up to five hundred dollars for future wagers. So just download the app and use the promo code Harris to claim the promotion, and you can go to betmgm dot com for further details. You must be twenty one
years or older. And although you can sign up an easily deposit money anywhere, you must be in the state of New Jersey to place a sports bet. Visit betmgm dot com for the full list of terms and conditions. And if you've got a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, John, let's move on here to the Texans at the Cot. The Colts are laying one and the over under is now at forty seven and a half. It has dropped a bit. It was at forty eight and a half when I first saw. The
Texans are dealing with a couple of injuries here. Titus Howard, their right tackle, and Bradley Roby, one of their corners, are both going to miss some time. There's lots of early money on the Colts here, who are coming off a buye. This is maybe a little bit of a letdown spot here for the Texans coming off the giant win against the Chiefs, and with the Colts they're getting a little healthier. Of course, with the bye Darius Leonard
has finally cleared the concussion protocol and should play. What do you think here, Colts laying one over under forty seven and a half.
Yeah, I do think this one's going to probably creep up closer to three. Like you said, a lot of money coming in on the Colts. They're coming off that bye week, and again Texans two huge wins back to back. They both beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Kansas City. The game feels pretty evenly matched, and the Colts are good at home, and Colts and Texans are good ats teams. But yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets to two and a half, maybe the full three by kickoff.
It does seem like, like you said, the money's coming in on the Colts, and I think there's a number of matchups that kind of favor them, and especially if they get Leonard back and it sounds like he cleared the protocol, he should play. That should be huge against the Texans offensive line.
Yeah, this is one where I've actually been monitoring it. It opened up minus one, it got bumped almost exactly, just had two two and a half to the point where right before we went on, I was checking where the line was and it had moved back to one, and I wasn't sure if that was a typo. But while you were talking, I went and I was like, oh, maybe I just wrote down the line wrong or something like that. No, when I got there, it had been to two and a half. So it's kind of jumped
all over the place. I can't imagine. If you like the Colts in this game, this is the best you're going to get. So you got to get on it. Because I completely agree. There's a lot of money at least early coming in on the Cults, and it's good. I mean, this is a perfect situation right now for the Colts. I mean, the Texans are really flying high, you know, off that game, and they're not that good. I mean they're fine, but they're really not that good.
I have no idea whether they're not throwing downfield to DeAndre Hopkins or anything like that. Now, they could have won bigger in Kansas City, to.
Be it did feel like they left some opportunities on the board.
I think will Fuller himself, you know, left eighteen points on the field by dropping all the touchdown passes. So yeah, look, it's certainly something where perhaps, you know, realistically, you could look at that game be like, man, the Texans should have destroyed the Chiefs. Absolutely, that's fine, but arrested Colts team, you know, coming off you know, one of these draining, you know games for the Texans. I agree that I like the Colts, and I wouldn't be surprised at this.
You know, I don't think it'll get to three, but you know the fact that it was already at two and a half before coming back down. I wouldn't be surprised if it got there. And if you like the Colts, I'd get Now let's move on to the Cardinals at the Giants. The Giants here are favored by three. The over under has moved up to fifty and a half. This is bounced back a lot here. It opened originally in forty nine and a half, dropped down a bit,
then came back up. I'm a little surprised by this line, so I'm interested to hear what you think about it. I mean, the Cardinals are getting Patrick Peterson back, Kyler Murray is starting to play really well even without Christian Kirk, who could be back. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley isn't even a lock to come back. I kind of thought that he would be. I thought it was just they're gonna wait and see. You know, they're gonna hold him out for
the Thursday night game. But now it didn't sound all that optimistic or at least not certain that he's going to come back in this game. Sterling Shepherd is probably going to be out again. I kind of thought that this. I understand the Giants being favored, but given the fact that Arizona's offense has looked a little better here lately, admittedly in soft matchups, that I kind of thought that this would be more like one one and a half two or something like that in favor of the Giants.
What do you think?
Yeah, I mean, I see where you're saying what you're saying there. I think they just kind of these teams are similar in a lot of ways where they're they should really struggle on defense. They're probably able to get the passing game going against weaker opponents, but You're right. I think what's really gonna be key is the Giants injuries and who actually ends up playing or doesn't play.
The Patrick Peterson thing probably is in factor in the line, but it really should because you know, going up against a rookie quarterback like Daniel Jones, who, I mean, what five turnovers against the Patriots. What the Giants have going for them is the extra bit arrest coming off the Thursday game, and those Thursday teams have been I think fairly strong ats this season. The other matchup that's really important as far as in big fantasy implications as well.
But the Cardinals can just not figure out how to guard a tight end. I don't know what the hell's going on, but they just can't figure it out. And whether or not Evan Ingram plays, I know it's not going to have an impact on the line, but definitely something to keep an eye on for DFS or fantasy stuff.
But yeah, maybe it's a maybe it's a hair high, but I think I kind of see what they're doing setting it at three, and I could see adjustments getting made if Saquon actually plays, or if they get a lot of money one way or the other.
Well just to be clear, Tyler Eifert heard your the giant the Cardinals can't stop any tight ends at all, and said hold my beer, because we had a lot of him in DFS and it did not work out quite.
By any exceptions.
Yes, yes, but certainly if Ingram plays. You know, he missed Thursday night's game, but if he is able to play, then he is a wonderful play. In the end, I'm going to be honest, like I can't ever right now, I can't back the Cardinals. I mean I'm in any game. I don't mean in this game, I mean in any game, just because I just do not have faith in them.
I actually picked the Falcons. Unfortunately, it was a little bit like the Irresistible Force meets the Immovable outduct with right with the Falcons just completely tanking basically at this point, just not playing anymore, versus the Cardinals, in which I have no faith whatsoever. So in the end, I'm surprised a little bit about the line. I don't like one team.
This is not a game I'm gonna go near. And on Thursday we list a game that we're avoiding, and this will probably be my game because I just don't like it. I'm okay with the over under. I mean, fifties a little high for me considering Peterson's coming back, But I do expect both teams to be able to score pretty much at will.
Yeah, I mean, if, yeah, the Cardinals, are they really going to win three games in a row. It does seem like the Cardinals or Yeah, the Cardinal stock couldn't be higher with back to back wins, even though neither win was against a good team and they certainly could have lost probably both those games as well.
That's a little bit why I was surprised that the Giants were favored by three, because I kind of expected money to come in on the Cardinals here, Yeah, because given the fact that they're riding high and they're coming off the things. But that early money is not on the Cardinals.
I'm the Giants, So yeah, Jay's still kind of a public team.
I get it. I get it, bookmakers, no more than I do. That's fine, I will accept it. Let's move on to forty nine ers at the Redskins. Forty nine ers here are laying ten. The over under is at forty two. Everything's working for the forty nine ers. I I thought that Kyle Yuschek's injury would have a little bit more of an impact. But they look I mean, look, they only put up i think seventeen points or whatever against the Rams, so it's not as if they had
an offensive juggernaut. But their defense has been completely suffocating. And we talked about the Redskins earlier when we were looking at the Dolphins matchup. They take advantage of that matchup, but still only seventeen points. I mean, they look relatively kind of almost sort of competent with case GenAm back there. But ten points is a big margin to be an underdog at home. But what do you think you're forty nine ers laying ten over under forty two?
Yeah, I mean I think the forty nine ers are probably are finally getting the respect from the bookmakers. I know I was skeptical of the forty nine ers success and it seemed like the betting market was skeptical as well. I mean, you look at that Rams line, that wasn't that big, and yeah, I think finally now it's like, all right, they're playing a really bad team. It's on the east coast, west coast to east coast, but I think think they're finally kind of giving the respect that
they've earned. Again, I wasn't a huge forty nine Ers guy going into the season, and again I thought the fullback injury for the forty nine Ers would really kind of slow down that Shanahan offense, but it just didn't. So it's hard not to give the expect the forty nine Ers to win by a decent number, especially with how historically good that d line is playing. I think that's gonna be kind of a nightmare situation for the Redskins.
So yeah, I think the Redskins offensive line, you know, as as competent as they made a Keendom look, I think it could be trouble for going up against this forty nine Ers team.
I really want to find value in the Redskins in this game because I'm just like, well, you know, they're they're coming east, and you know they're coming off this monstrous win you know over the Rams where they looked you know, it's classic classic letdown game. But I just can't.
It's one of these things where these teams, you know, with the Dolphins for the first couple of weeks, you were kind of like looking at these lines, You're like, well, there's value there you know that there's value, there are NFL teams, there's value with these big lines. But I can't do it, not a ten certainly. If anything, I leaned towards the forty nine. The over under strikes me
as about right. Forty two. I mean, it's not gonna be a high scoring game no matter what, because you know the forty nine ers as a general matter, especially without you check, I'm sure that does affect their offense. Again, they only put up seventeen points against the Rams team that was missing a keep to leave. I mean, they have a fine defense, but overall, you know, I think the forty two strikes me as roughly correct. Let's move
on here to the Jaguars at the Bengals. Jaguars are laying three the over under at forty three and a half. The Bengals managed to keep it relatively close here in Baltimore. They were never really in the game, but they ended it within six. Maybe they get aj greenback here sound you know, Zach Tayler said, we'll see today, so who knows.
They obviously struggle on both sides of the ball. And meanwhile, you know, Minshew Magic looks to be running out a little bit the Jaguars had a lot of trouble moving the ball against Saints, but still the line felt a little bit light to me. I thought the Jaguars should have been favored by maybe four. I imagine the public is going to come in hard on Jacksonville with that line because just I think people are just avoiding the Bengals.
So it makes me a little nervous that it didn't open higher, especially they were favored against the Saints, which I think surprised a lot of people. I know they were home, so you know, it makes me a little worried because this line s tricks me as it should be closer to something like four.
Yeah, I do. I don't see it closing at minus three for the Jags. It does feel like you'll get up to three and a half or four. I mean, the Bengals are zero and six. And can you really make a case where you were watching a Bengals game and thought like, hey, they got this, They're gonna win this game. I mean, they covered against that Ravens team. But if you watch that game, there was kind of some fluky stuff that happened as far as like random special teams play or you know, deflected I and T
that kind of stuff. And the Jaguars, even though they lost to the Saints at home, I think that kind of says more about the Saints. This Jaguars team feels like a competent team. I mean, I'm not you know, I still got a little taste of minshew mania. You know, just got my fake mustache and sunglasses in the in the mail, so I gotta I gotta hold onto it until it runs out. This Jaguars team just feels competent, and I can't really say the same thing for the Bengals.
I think I think it's just gonna be tough to get the public involved on the Bengals at plus three, even as the home dog.
That's the point. I mean, the public here is going to pound the Jaguars, at least i'd expect them to. And it makes me a little nervous when there's a line that's like, man, you guys are just begging for the public to pound one side of this. It makes me a little nervous that I'm missing something at this point. But yeah, I tried to make excuses for the Bengals for a while, you know, when they when they were beaten up by the forty nine ers and they they
couldn't tackle anybody. I was like, well, I mean they look competent against Seattle, so you know, I don't think those tackling issues are repeatable, and it turns out that they were. I did beat against Buffalo at that time, which they've managed to cover, getting six. I think they lost by four in that game, so you know, on the road they generally have a pretty good record of covering. But at this point, I mean, I'd love the Jaguars
at three. I think this is a game where they bounce back a little bit from again a game I completely agree. That's much more about the Saints defense, which is really really strong in shutting them down there. So I agree, And if you like the Jaguars, I would get in now as opposed to waiting. Let's move on to the Chargers at the Titans. The Titans here are now laying two and the over unders at forty and a half, which really shows you what you need to
know right now about the Chargers. Two teams here that are struggling. We don't know who's going to start at quarterback for the Titans at this point. After Ryan tanneheall they don't know. They don't know, and I'm not really sure it matters at all. I mean, I think it doesn't move the line either way because I think they're both equally sort of like, Okay, fine, throw this guy out there. I guess they'll be fine. Meanwhile, the Chargers
are just doing Chargers things. They're lags against the Broncos and the Steelers. Their offensive line is in tons of trouble. They can't get into a group offensively, they can overcome their defensive injuries. Look, I have said essentially that I am never betting on a Titans game right now because I don't know which team is going to show up whenever they come. And I feel kind of the same way about the Chargers at this point. So what do you think Titans lang to over under a forty and a half.
Well, it's it's interesting because the Titans. When we're doing our preview podcasts over at the Sports Gamling podcast, the Titans team where a team me and my coast Ryan were both you know against. I think I had them at six and ten and he had them as like five and eleven, and we caught the wrath of a ton of Titans fans who are like, you don't know
what you're talking about, blah blah blah. So it's I guess it's not surprising that they're that they're two and four, and it's weird because they they're a super physical team, and you know they succeed in kind of these smash mouse scenarios. The Chargers offensive line, Yeah, that pounc the injury putting him on IR that was just I mean, their offensive line was in shambles to begin with, and then you take away the center and you're forced to
play a basically a road game at home. The Chargers historically, I mean since they moved to the stub Hub or what Dignity Helps Sports Park now it's called, they've actually been really good on the road because essentially they're playing sixteen road games, so normally there's there's some value on the Chargers on the road. Match applies, man, don't. I don't know where this line goes from here. I'd be surprised if it gets up to Titans minus three, but
maybe that's where it goes. I do think the Chargers, even though they're injured, they still probably have the more talent. Hunter Henry seem to be getting going tons of questions quarterback for the Titans. Again, these are just two super disappoint teams. I guess I wouldn't be shocked if it gets to three, But again I don't This one is really tough for me to get a handle on because if you're the betting public, like I don't see what's appealing on either side of this. These are just two
teams that have looked really frankly gross. So I think this is gonna be a low volume betting slate for the for the books here, So I don't know. Because of the low volume, I don't see it moving a lot, but I guess it wouldn't be surprised if Titan's move to three. What's your handle on this?
You stole my thunder every No, that's good. I'd rather you talk the whole point that first of all, if this is not the least bet game on this slate, I mean, I don't know. I should make a bet on it, like I do every once in a while, but nobody wants this game. I don't think I have no idea what the line is going to. I think they're just going to try to make the line where they're Like, does anybody want to bet on this game, Like, that's what I thought. The Redskins Dolphins line one was
three and a half. They were like, look at three and a half. People are either like me, are gonna look at me like, oh man, this is gonna be close. I mean, I don't like either of these teams. I'll take the extra hook and I'll go with the Dolphins. Other people are like, man, the Dolphins are I don't care about the Redskins. You know the Dolphins are historically bad. I'll take it like I think they'll They'll try to set something. This line's gonna move all over the place.
I think. I don't think it'll get past three in either directions, but I could see it ending with the Chargers favorite. I'm not even kidding, Like.
No shocked either. I think they just kind of threw this two out to see what the betting public wanted to make of this game, and I guess let that let them decide.
Yeah, well, I think if you and I are representative of the betting public, we're not nobody's gonna be going anywhere near this game. So that's my prediction. But it's not something that I have a good feel for at all. So before we finish up with our last few games, I want to tell everyone some good news and some bad news. Let's start with the bad news first, because that's how I like to do it. Our signed Alvin
Kamara helmet giveaway contest is over. I'm going to randomly select a winner this week and announce it on Thursday's show. So that is the bad news. Contest is over. Now the good news. It's time for our next contest, and this one is a signed Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland Brown's helmet. You can go to bettingpros dot com slash contest for more details, but to enter, just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a
screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. Now, an entry into any contest gets you automatically entered into all future contests. So maybe you're like me and you're just waiting for that Sam Darnold autographed helmet because he's your hero and he has immaculate hair. If that's ever going to be a giveaway, you would automatically be entered once you send in your entry into any contest, So take the two seconds be kind to Sean and send
in a review. All right, let's move on here to the Saints at the Bears. Bears here are favored by three and hours half. The over under is at thirty nine. Still Teddy Bridgewater. Here, the Saints defense is playing incredibly well, as we talked about. Meanwhile, the last time we saw the Bears that were getting their butts kicked in London
by the Raiders. I have some strong thoughts on both these numbers, by the way, but what's your reaction your Bears lank three and a half at home over under thirty nine?
Yeah, I was surprised that Bears were favored by this much. I mean, what more does the betting public and the odds makers need to see the Saints team? They went into Jacksonville and played extremely good defense. I mean, the Jacksonville offense isn't really that much different from this Bears offense. I mean, you could Gardner Minshew, I would take him over Chase Daniel right now. It's just I'm pretty surprised
that's this high. I mean, I normally like to fade the Saints historically a dome team going outdoors on like kind of slow conditions. But this Saints team has just really showed that, you know, their defense can trap that their offense whatever they're doing with Bridgewater, they're keeping it simple and they've just been really effective since Drew Brees has been out. And I guess I'm surprised that the spread is that high.
Could not agree more. I really I get that the Bears can be favored in this game because they're home and they're off of buying whatever. But no, I mean, the Saints are absolutely legitimate on defense. Really, that's what it comes down to. You can't run on the Saints, right, I mean, they have a great run defense. I mean, Fournette was fine, but they have a really good run defense. I don't think David Montgomery is gonna be able to do that much if they give him the touches, which
you never know. So you're going to be relying on Mitch Trubisky is coming back here. Okay, that's good, I guess because Chase Daniel looked terrible. But it's not that good it really, you know, if you're going to be relying on him after being off for so long, especially, I mean remember as bad as he's looked, he looked terrible that first game part of it because he had no preseason reps essentially, and he's essentially looking at that too.
He's been off for several weeks. I do not expect them to be able to move the ball very well here. So if you're telling me that you can get the Saints at more than a field goal, I mean I would be all over that, and I'd be all over the over under thirty nine too. I think ideally Peyton wants to rely on his defense. The one time he let Bridgewater open it up was against the Bucks, because that's the weakness. The weakness is they have no pass defense.
They're okay at stopping the run, but they cannot stop the pass. He said, all right, we're going to open this up for this one time. Only. Can't do that against the Bears. It's going to be a low scoring game. I can't see a scenario where the Bears win by more than a field goal, so I'm shocked. I think it opened at minus four. It's already come down a little bit. So if you like the Saints, as both of us do, I would get in now before it drops closer to a field goal, because if you're getting
more than a field goal, I love it. So I'm glad you had the same reaction because, yeah.
Honestly, of all the lines this week, that one really in particular jumped out at me.
Yeah, that was a good one. Let's move on here to the Ravens at the Seahawks. Really interesting game actually here right now. The Seahawks are favored by three and a half and the over under is fifty and a half. If you would have said in the preseason that the over under on the Ravens Seahawks game was going to be fifty and a half, no one would have believed. You know, you've got the MVP of the league almost certainly as at this point, Russell Wilson. He's playing absolutely
out of his mind. But the loss of Will Disley, they I don't know if they've officially diagnosed it as a torn achilles yet, but that's what everybody thinks. He's likely after the season. He had kind of become an important weapon for them, and their defense has not been great. It's certainly not what it was back in its heyday.
And then you've got the Ravens on the other side, who have beaten the Dolphins, the Cardinals, the Steelers, and the Bengals and other than the Dolphins, they haven't won by a significant amount, so you know, when they win, they don't really cover anyway, give me your thoughts on this one. Seahawks at home three and a half over under a fifty and a half.
Yeah, I thought Seahawks would be favored by a little bit more. I mean, this is a tough non conference road spot, a lot of travel for this Ravens team. And it's interesting because you're right, the Ravens and Seahawks historically have been like two grinded out, physical teams, and neither of the team's defenses have been what they've once been historically. I mean the Ravens in particular, they just don't have that same kind of pass rush, the same
kind of intensity. And again, yeah, the Ravens have beat up on some lower quality teams. But the Seahawks, you look at their schedule, it's been They've won some tough games and kind of tough spots. I mean, even going up against Cleveland last week, I wasn't super high on Cleveland. I made Sea out of my lock, but still I give them some credit for a quality win because of how desperate that Browns team was and again non conference
road game that can be easy to overlook. I think this is gonna be a tough spot for the Ravens. I mean, again, if you normally sometimes some people have this Seahawks home field advantage at three and a half. So to me, on a neutral field, the Seahawks and Ravens team already equal. I think the Seahawks are probably a point and a half power ranking by my account, so I'm surprised it's only three and a half.
Yeah, you know, I think I have a little bit of a different view on this one. Now. Your view, I think is more of the majority of you. I've seen early action coming in on the Seahawks here are both in terms of the number of vets and the money that's being laid down. You know, man, I just I don't trust the Seahawks team.
And that's fair, especially their defense.
That's the thing. Their defense is not good. It's really it's all Wilson right now. You know, With Brandon Williams back for the Ravens, I think they're really going to be strong against the run. You take away Disley, not that will Disley is the be all end all or anything like that, but you know, dk Metcalf is fine, but you know he's much more of a red zone threat. Tyler Lockett's great. I mean, Jern Brown's probably not catching
two touchdown passes. Again, the thing is that Wilson right now is just playing so incredibly well that they're likely going to be able to put a points on anyone. And I don't really trust the Ravens necessarily to be able to catch up, right. I mean, Lamar Jackson ran for whatever he did this weekend, you know, one hundred and fifty yards, but you know you're not going to really be able to do that the entire time when
you're playing from behind. Also, Hollywood Brown, it's not clear if he's going to be able to suit up for this one. He's kind of in wait and see mode, and his presence, if for no other reason, then it kind of clears out, you know, the field because of his speed. So if he doesn't play, I guess I could see it. But my early lean, oddly enough, was for the Ravens. I just it feels to me like a close game if you're getting more in a field goal.
But it's something where again that's the minority position right now. From what I could see and the over under. I also it kind of felt a little under to me. I don't really expect this just crazy high flying. I don't think that's realistically what the Seahawks want to be. They had to do it. They fell way behind against
the Brown so they're letting Wilson go. But I think ideally at their heart, at the way Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenhamer want to run these games, they want to be kind of like a close, like drag it out of fair one of these things. So I could see it being like that in a little lesser scoring than most people think. So I'm a little bit on the other side, which I admit is a minority position.
Yeah, I get what you're saying there that maybe there's some value, especially in the under, because there are two teams that, like admittedly, want to run the ball, want to pound the rock. But yeah, it's going up against two defenses that have, you know, had issues, so I guess that's where things will shake out. But yeah, I mean saying it's a field goal game, I think totally
makes sense to me. The extra point and a half value that I think is there if you're on the Seahawks is in the situational spot and the travel and that kind of thing.
Yep, I think that all makes sense. Let's move on here to the Eagles that the Cowboys must win game here for both teams. Cowboys are now favored by two. I believe it opened at three. So the Cowboys laying to over under is now at forty nine. It was at forty eight. You've obviously got the Amari Cooper injury here on the Cowboys side. That's a big one for them if he is unable to suit up. It's a quad bruise, so it doesn't sound structural, but you know
he missed the entire Jets game pretty much bigger than that. However, they might be the progress of Tarron Smith and Lil Collins, their big offensive linemen. I mean they neither one suited up against the Jets. One or both may suit up against the Eagles, which you know you need to do against that pass rush. Meanwhile, the Eagles just can't seem to get it going. You know, more than anyone you
said you're an Eagles fan. Their pass defense is just not where they run defense is solid, their pass defense it's just terrible. They may get Shawn Jackson back. I think he's probably out for another week or two though, But I don't know. What are your thoughts here, Cowboys laying to over under forty nine.
Yeah, I mean it's interesting, you know, because the Eagles cornerbacks Darby and Mills they're expected to return to practice. I don't know if they'll be able to go. There's so many questions at cornerback for the Eagles. To me, this just feels, I mean, both teams kind of similar in that they've had serious injury issues. Their play has been up and down. They're both three and three. They've lost some games they probably shouldn't have. To me, this
just feels like a straight three. I don't see where the adjustment off the three is. That's, I guess, to me surprising. And it must have been a ton of Philly action coming in on the plus three that that got them to move into two. Because traditionally the Cowboys are a you know, America's team, a public team. I could see. I can see why they're off them because of the losing to the Jets, which is pretty embarrassing.
But that was on the podcast. My co host had the Jets as his money lining dog play because with both tackles out and a look ahead spot for the Cowboys, you can see you could really make the case for the Jets.
There so and the Jets and the Jets being the best team in the NFL. Thanks, I appreciate that go ahead.
I'm sorry, and uh yeah, and Sam Donald's return, Sammy d slinging it all around to me, this's just should feel this should just be three. I think three is where it probably will end up closing. I'm surprised we're seeing twos right now. So that's my big takeaway on this spread.
Yeah, I mean the consensus is two, but there are certainly some threes out there. I'm looking at it now, you know, I don't know. My guess is the early money. You know, our people probably public betters, you know, looking at the Mark Cooper injury and maybe saying, you know they the offense. You know, you don't. Wide receiver injuries don't often move the line, or shouldn't move the line necessarily that much. But Cooper really changes things a little
bit for that offense. Michael Gallup is good. Jason Witten found the Vounty of Youth a little bit, but they really don't have many other options after that. It's not a game that I feel particularly comfortable with no matter what it is. I agree it's three two evenly matched teams. Cowboys are at home, seems like a three primetime divisional game. It's just not something where I want to go near personally,
because you know, both teams are desperate. But in the end, if both tackles, both offensive lineman play, Smith and Collins, if they both play, if Cooper plays, I'd probably lean towards the Cowboys here, especially if you can get it at anything less than three. But in the end, it's just probably a game I'm not gonna go too close.
Yeah, it does seem like I would, I mean, honestly, either side, you like, I would kind of wait it out till later in the week, because again it's like will they play, but then sometimes they play, but they're not fully one hundred percent like I think. I guess if you like the Cowboys, maybe lock up that minus two. But it does seem like it's worth it to wait and see how some of these injuries progress before betting this game.
Yeah, with all the health concerns, it's certainly something where more information is going to help you make a better decision final game of the week, Patriots at Jets. Patriots here are laying ten over under is at forty three. We talked a little bit about the Jets looked very competent offensively with Sam Darnold against the Cowboys. I'm not sure whether or not Chris Herndon's gonna be able to play here, but regardless, they can certainly move the ball.
Robbie Anderson, Jameson Crowder and even Samarius Thomas sort of helping out there, and of course they have Le'Veon Bell and on the defensive side, they're solid, not spectacular, don't have great corners or anything like that, but especially if CJ. Mosley can come back, that's gonna yeah, that's too. Yeah. I'm not sure what the latest is on him. I haven't read anything yet about this week, but he's obviously
been trending in that direction. Although he wasn't questionable in like a game time call here, he was doubtful, so he may be another week away or something like that. Meanwhile, the Pats, they continue to roll, but they did not look that dynamic against the Giants Offensively. They got going a little bit later, but you know, Josh Gordon's battling injury. It's pretty much Julian Edelman. They are getting to kill Harry Back. The running game really does not look good
since James Devlin went out. It's a big thing. But you know they can easily drop, you know, forty points without really breaking a sweat here. So what do you think Patriots minus ten over under forty three in New Jersey playing against the Jets.
Yeah, I mean, I I think this spread sounds about right. Patriots coming off that extra Thursday rest, their offense has really just looked bad. I mean there's moments where Tom Brady's throwing the ball and you're just like, ugh, what's going on there? So it's I guess in that sense it's crazy to make them a minus ten road favorite.
But I think the flip side of that is this Patriots team is just historically good on the defensive side of the ball, and they're creating turnovers, They're creating points off turnovers. They're making the job so easy for the offense going the other way that they can't help but
cover these big numbers. Like I was on the Pats minus sixteen and a half and certainly had to sweat it out a little bit but they you know, they came through, and a lot of it is the turnovers that they got off Daniel Jones, a young, inexperienced quarterback, which they're facing with Sam Darnold here. Yeah, I think if you we're back in the Jets, I liked the case you're building there with like CJ. Mosley and the defense. The Jets defensive line I probably doesn't get enough credit
for how solid it's been. So if they can, you know, and this is a Monday night game, the Jets should be up for it. I think that's the case. If you're talking yourself into the Jets. I don't if you're if you're a Pats backer and you're hoping it gets down to like nine and a half or nine, so you can put it in a tease, I'd be surprised if it dips that low. I think if anything, it probably you know, gets to ten and a half maybe, But this this spread feels about right.
Yeah, I think this is about right. I actually think if it does, I think it's going to stay here at ten because I think ten's the right number. I think if it does go anywhere, I could see it going half a point to nine and a half actually under the ten because my guess is that people will be hitting the Jets here a little bit, particularly if there's good news on Mosley. You know again, look, you know, you throw out, throw out completely what you saw in
between game one and in between this last game. Because Luke Falk is not an NFL quarterback, you can't take anything away from it. Darnold is good, the system works, It's really gonna be I know Adam Gase isn't the great head coach, but his system is going to be fine. They're gonna be able to move the ball against it. It's a fantastic, fantastic defense. The Jets have no offensive line whatsoever. That's that's troubling, but Darnold's mobility is able
to kind of move around that. And again, they're gonna be able to get pressure on Brady without blitzing too much given the line. And that's the one thing that makes it not as confident. I'm always reluctant to back the Jets, just because I've been a fan of my entire life, and it's you know, if you've done that, you've seen enough losing. But at this you know, at home on Monday night, that place is going to be nuts. They really get up for it. I kind of see
a little value in the Jets. I'm not saying that I would take it. I'm sure it won't be like a super contest pick or anything like that for me, but it's something where as of right now, I kind of see the value and I kind of also see the value in the over because I think that, you know, of forty three, the Jets are going to be able to move the ball, not crazy or anything like that.
The Pats have a great defense, but look, you know they're gonna the game against the Giants wound up being you know, relatively high scoring one where the Pats are gonna be able to pick to put up points. So I kind of like the over there, and I kind of lean towards the Jets with the ten. But it's not something where I'm like jumping for joy over or anything like that.
Yeah. Yeah, I'm probably of that mindset as well. But it's just this Patriots team just keeps covering these big numbers and they the turnover thing could really swing this one way the one way or the other, and night I do think, yeah, I do think you're I like to play on the over there that that kind of makes sense the case you're building there.
Yeah, well, let's hope so so I can at least enjoy my my Monday night living in New England as a Jets fan. But anyway, that's gonna do it. For today's show, Shawn, it was great having you back on. Remind everybody where they can find more of you and your work.
Awesome. Yeah, we'll check us out on the Sports Gambling Podcast. You can follow us on Twitter at Gambling Podcast or follow me at Sewan T. Green And yeah, we're putting three podcasts out a week. We do a daily fantasy one, a college and the NFL Picks one and yeah, so and tons of blogs and free picks and all that kind of stuff over at Sports Gaming podcast dot com.
Awesome. Thanks again for coming back, and I hope we can do it at least one more time before the season ends.
Oh yeah, I would love to really enjoy it. Thanks man.
Yeah, thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and use the promo code Harris to get your risk free first wager of up to five hundred dollars, and don't forget to rate and review the podcast, and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com for your chance to win a signed Odell Beckham Junior Brown's helmet. We'll be back later this week giving you some of our best bets for week seven. I'll talk to you then