Hey everybody, welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I am your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is time talk about our best bets four week seven, and here to do that with me is Ian McMillan over at bet sided. Find him on Twitter at Ian mac betts. That's I A I m Ian. Thanks for popping on the show again. How are you.
I'm doing well man, Thanks for having me.
Yeah, it's great to have you now. I do want to ask because I know the last time you were on, which was for the Early look aheadlines, you had mentioned that you are betting every single NFL game this year. I want to know how that's going for you.
So far, it's going way better than I ever could have imagined. To be completely honest, I never would have expected I got off to this heart of a star. But I'm sixty three and thirty one for up twenty nine point nine to two units. So oh, my best start I've ever had in any betting, you know, betting, any sport ever. So it's definitely not going to keep up. I'm not gonna hit it close to seventy percent all season, but I'll enjoy wild lasts.
All right, well, hopefully it doesn't end until after this week. At least you can get out some good ad. Guys here, are you just betting spreads, by the way, or are you betting totals or anything else?
Spreads? Totals and at least one money line underdog, well, which I've actually done. I think I'm like eight and one with my money line underdog picks, so that those that helps quite a bit when you're hitting at that.
Rate with those, yeah, no doubt. All right, well, hopefully you have a money line underdog for us today. But let's get into it again. This is our three best bets for the weekend Spreads, totals or money lines, is Ian said. And then we're just going to quickly run through any of the games that we didn't touch on. Before we do, let's get into the latest offer from
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slash review. If you are subscribed to our YouTube channel over YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. That's three times the entries and I also get a lot of good stuff, including a props video, my weekly video that I just dropped right before, which should probably come out shortly after you listen to this podcast. All right, before we get into Ian's Unstoppable picks, I suppose let's very briefly recap last week. Our guest Benny Richardi went two and one.
He hit on the Bengals three and a half to the Lions, and he hitting the Cowboys laying three and a half to the Patriots, even though I'm going to say that I still think that that was obviously the wrong side and I was leaning the other way. He did miss though, on the Chiefs and the Washington football team over fifty four and a half. I also went to in one another positive day, hitting on the Bengals and Lions under forty seven and a half, the Vikings
laying one and a half to the Panthers. I did miss on my favorite bet of the week, admittedly, which was the Browns laying three to the Cardinals. I will say that now puts me It is not quite an Ian McMillan level, but it puts me at twelve and four so far on this podcast, five consecutive winning weeks. So we've got a lot of things going in our favorite Ian. Let's hope that we can keep going. It is a tougher slate obviously, with all the bull with
all the buys. Pardon me, but remember're going to be using bettingpros dot Com lines. I'll note when there are differences and everything like that. You can use the app. By the way, the betting pros app download Make your picks. Follow along in the leaderboard. Ian, I've talked enough, Go ahead, what's your first pick of the week.
So my first pick of the week here? Does it matter what we start with? Total reprea?
Does it? You get to start with whatever you want?
Okay, I'm gonna give I'm gonna I'm gonna start out hot. Then I'm gonna give out my most aggressive pick. I would recommend most people probably take the spread here, take the points. But I mentioned I've been doing well with my money line underdog picks. I got a little bit of a heat check this week. I'm tossing up a tossing up a shot from mid court here from the logo. Love this pick. Bengals plus two to twenty five against the Baltimore Ravens. I'm taking them on the money line.
You can get them what plus six plus six and a half right now? If you want to be a little bit more conservative, and I would not blame you, but first of all, I think this is a big sell high spot on the Ravens. I mean, you know this, betting on sports, especially the NFL, is a little bit like kind of the stock market. You want to buy low on some teams, at some point you want to sell high on some other teams. I think this is
a big sell high spot on the Ravens. After that big comeback two weeks ago against the Colts on Monday Night Football, big win last week against the Chargers, who everyone's been praising lately, but don't forget like a few weeks ago they needed a sixty six aired field goal to beat the Detroit Lions. So this team's not unbeatable.
And the Bengals have actually impressed me so far the season, especially their defense second in the NFL and opponent yards per play and seventh in opponent yards per carry, And we know that's huge. If you want to beat the Ravens, you have to be able to stop the run, and the Bengals run defense has been pretty solid this year. Ravens defense hasn't been as good as people expected, especially in their secondary twenty first and opponent yards per past tempt.
I expect Joe Burrow to have a big day. So my heat check game, my money line upset pick Bengals plus two twenty fives.
The Ravens, well, I think, like I'm not gonna take it with you Okay, I'm gonna let you be as hot as impossilic to kiss this up now. You obviously like the six and a half, as you mentioned, which is where it is, by the way, consensus right now, six and a half. I'm a little worried just about
how good the Ravens are at home. They're just this absolutely dominant on the road, like obviously the odds wouldn't be as good, of course, but I do think that the Bengals are a much much better team than I still think even the public gives them credit for their defense.
Has really surprised me with how well they've played. Burrow again, I expected to struggle early on in the season because I thought figured, you know, coming back from the injury, both physically and mentally, he would be a little slow, but he has been great. Jamar Chase has been elite out there, and the Ravens do have holes. I think I might be a little gun shy just because of I was actually on the Chargers last week against them,
and they just absolutely destroyed them. So you realistically you think the Bengals are gonna walk out of here winners.
I like Bengals plus six and a half. Obviously a lot better if you just want to take a bet that's gonna win. I think I Bengals and the points is a great bet. But like I said, I've been hitting my money line underdog picks this so far this year. It's a heat check. It's a little bit like, yeah what I am, But I mean divisional game as well. I think it's gonna be closed. I think the Bengals
can win this. Also two weeks when the Bengals lost to the Packers in overtime, I still walked away like more impressed with the Bengals even though they lost than what I was before that game.
So a hundred and they obviously could have easily won that game, of course, given all the field goal issues and everything like that. But I do think that the divisional game aspect of it does weigh certainly in your favorite because every divisional game just scares the crap out of you because you just have no idea. The teams know each other well. Obviously, we know exactly what Baltimore is going to do. It's really just about whether or
not they can start them. Okay, I'm going to take a pick that I really I don't like taking those type of pick okay, so feel free. I want to know which side you're on. I'm taking a road favorite, which is don't love it. It's the Panthers lanth three to the Giants. For me, there are just a lot of things working against the Giants in this game. First Off, they're just generally speaking terrible at home own three this year, nine and twenty six at Medlife since twenty seventeen. Nobody
is showing up to these games. The fans when they do, they're pretty much just booing. So it's a road game for Carolina because they're away from home, but it's not exactly like they're walking into any sort of hostile environment. Second, the Giants offensive line is really in terrible shape. They actually played pretty well early on the season, better than I expected them to play, but you saw what happened
against the Rams. A lot of that is Andrew Thomas, who also was one of the key cogs and playing better than I expected him to play, but he is now out for this game. And on ir and again, it's it's not just the quality of their alignment at this point, it's the consistency in the fact that they're constantly shuffling guys in and out because they're getting nicked up and they're moving guys from one position to another.
It's really difficult to play with an offensive line, and that's huge for someone like Daniel Jones, who's just much worse when he is pressured. Fifty four percent completion percentage when he's under pressure. And the Panthers, even on a bad day, get pressure like their fourth and pressure. Right
they're one of the better teams there. So against this offensive line with all, by the way, the injuries the playmakers offensively, like I don't expect seko On Barkley, I don't expect Darius Tony, and I don't expect Kenni Galladay to play at this point. So they're really down a lot of AMMO here on offense. So I think they're going to struggle to score. And the Panthers, by the way, have a good defense. I know they had the JC Horn injury. Keith Taylor has subbed in pretty well, so
J Henderson is getting healthier. I don't think Stefan Gilmore is gonna be up for this game, but regardless, they are playing pretty well defensively anyway, and offensively. I didn't like the spot for them last week again I said I took the Vikings Ian because of the pressure. That's a big thing. I think with Sam Darnold, which I know very well having watched him for years, that is not where the Giants shine. The Giants do not get a ton of pressure. So I think that's pretty good
as to what we're gonna see. And as well, I think you heard them talk about the fact that they're gonna run the ball here a little more. Take some pressure off Donald. That is good. The Giants are twenty seventh in DVA against the run. This game just kind of sets up well for me for the Panthers. They need to win. They don't have to take chances to get it. You gotta banged up Giants team in dis array.
So seventy percent ian Panthers laying three on the road to the Giants, tell me what you're thinking.
Yeah, to be honest, out of all the games this week, the Giants Panthers game is the one game where, like I wish I wasn't betting on every single NFL game, because really pass on this game. I think this is the toughest game, toughest game on the board this week in my opinion, and any what concerns me is number one, the injuries. But what concerns me with the Panthers when you look at their stats compared to the first three
games compared to the last three games, just night and day. So, like, what version, in my opinion, like, what version of the Panthers team is for real? Are they more like the team they played like in the first three weeks or are they more like the team that we saw the last three weeks. Anytime that there was a toss up game, in my opinion, which I think this is, I end up just taking the team that's getting the points. So
I am on the Giants. But like I said, I think it's it's my least favorite bet of the week. I cannot argue against someone who's on the Panthers. I went back and forth for a while trying to decide who to bet on in this game. But it's tough. But I mean, you made a couple of really good points. Giants eight twenty one and one against the spread their
last thirty home games, We're just terrible, terrible, terrible. Daniel Daniel Jones is terrible at home compared to on the road, So those things are certainly going in the Panthers favor. So I am on the Giants, but I will not I will not argue too much against the Panthers pick.
So what's funny is that I think that your point of like, well, which Panthers team are we going to see? I think you're going to see the version of the Panthers team that plays the crappy opponent, which is what we saw in the first three games. Now that the Saints weren't terrible, but the Saints aren't that good or anything like that. The Jets in Houston versus what you see in the next three games, which is Dallas Philadelphia, which their defense played fine. By the way, they easily
could have won that game. But the Philadelphia defense is much stronger, and we'll talk about that maybe in a little bit. And I think people give them credit for and then Minnesota to me honestly, offensively, I think this is a game first of all, they have to win because they've got to get back on track number one. And I think the Giants them I think sometimes like I don't have a model. I admit, like I don't have a model that I plug in and I come up with the appropriate spread. I know a lot of
you know, professional gamblerss and everything like that. But I think this is just a spot right now where there are some things of regardless of sort of how it might look on the service level, you just dig deep into this Giants team. They look broken right now, and whether it's the constant injuries or whatever it is, I mean,
they're just absolutely devastated at this point. I don't think they really have at this point that the mental you know, I almost say mental wherewithal but just where they are right now to be able to come in here and put it against the team that is desperate for a win. And again, I think the fact that they're going to be able to be Panthers, to be able to take such like a non risky game, essentially a safe game plan here, I think leads of their favorite But that's fine.
You don't even want to bet it. You did have to bet it, and you bet against me. So this is where the irresistible force meets the immovable object with this one. All right, get to your next game? What do you want?
All right? So I'll go I'll go my total, my favorite total for the week here and I'm gonna go Jets Patriots under forty two and a half is what I got to that I think this is just a spot. You can't overthink it. They already played once this season. I took the under in that game and finished with a total of thirty one points. Score of that game. I mean, it's two bad offenses and two good defenses.
So yards per play Patriots are twenty third, Jets are thirty first, red zone offense Patriots thirtieth, Jets twenty eighth, points per game Patriots twenty fourth, Jets dead last. And then the defensive side of those stats, Patriots thirteenth, fifth and ninth, Jets ninth, second and eighteenth. Interesting fact, they're about the Jets second and red zone defense so far this NFL season, which I did not expect before looking into those numbers. Yeah, and obviously red zone defense is huge.
If we're betting on an under, you want those drives to end in field goals, not in touchdowns. So fifth and second in red zone defense makes me quite a bit more confident. Also, Bill Belichick has been one of the most conservative coaches in the NFL so far the season with his play calling. He's not taking a whole lot of shots downfield, not going forward on fourth down, basically whatsoever the Jets offense has has I apologize because I know you're a jew. Non existing Yeah, I got
just non existing against decent defenses so far the season. So, like I said first meeting in in thirty one points, it's a bit of a low total forty two and a half, which does scare me a little bit. Sure, I think when you look at the numbers, I think it's the only play you can make in this game.
Ah, that's the correct pick. And I would have taken it as well if not for you, as I look the way we've worked since the first game, where I felt like I got the short end of the stick because I didn't get Seawan's picks the first week pardon me, where I didn't get Shawn's picks and events and he picked my favorite game of the week, and I would sort of like, all right, I'll scramble and pick another one. I now get our guests picks in advance, just so
I can know exactly what they are. And this I immediately emailed back Ian and I was like, Ah, that was definitely a pick I was eyeing as well. Yes, all the reasons that you said, I think this is absolutely a game that is just going to lean heavily towards the ender. It again, there are a lot of these load totals, and I think better first of all, better' is like overs anyway, like casual betters, because you want to root for something then again something. And I think
these low totals generally scare betters off regardless. But I really think there are a lot of teams that you can go. I mean again, I picked the Broncos under for the first like three or four weeks. I think that's been a good spot generally speaking. I have it as well tonight so people will know when they listen. So I hope not not in the under. I've teased the under up. Just overitess, Okay, I am going to
stick with your least favorite game. Because you went with the over under, I will also go with an over under. I will stick in this Panthers Giants game, which is very funny to me because it's the game. You're like, man, the one game out of the whole year that I need to get away from is this game. And I'm like, sweet, let me bet all my money on this game. And it is so the total right now, the consensus total at bettingpros dot com is forty three. There are some
forty three and a half's out there. It's actually forty two and a half at my book DraftKings, but the consensus line is forty three. That's where most books are, and I am going the under, and it is basically for all the reasons I explained before. I think the Giants are going to really struggle to put up points here. You know, whatever they are able to do, you know, defensively, we'll talk about that in the second. Offensively, it's just
very difficult to see. I think for this to go over, you're going to need some sort of defensive score here from the Panthers are something flukey, which again always the worry when you have this high low of total and everything.
But I do think again with their offensive line injuries, with how few playmakers they have, with how bad Daniel Jones plays at home generally speaking, with how Baddie is especially under pressure, it just really strikes me as a game that they're not going to put up a lot of points. And conversely, again this is not me buying
into Sam Darnold. They're buying into the Panthers' offense. What This is buying into is Matt rule, understanding that they have to win a game, and the way to do that is to run the ball a ton against a defense that struggles to stop the run. And when you do that, when you run the ball, the clock keeps running. They're in no hurry to really get here. So I think this is another game where the game script sets up two teams that are not going to put up
a ton of points. One of the teams that probably will win is going to run the ball a ton, especially when I think they are leading in this game, as I expect them to win, and then they want to run out the clock. To me, it screams under as a low scoring game. So I imagine you are avoiding this game entirely regardless of the over under. But I'm gonna go under here for under forty three is the official play for my second pick.
Yeah, I was deciding between for this game. I was deciding between the Giants or the under. So I agree with you on the on the on the total play, I would not be going over in this game whatsoever, based on how these two teams have looked so far this season. So yeah, I'm not playing the under. But like I said, I was deciding between Giants and the points in the under. I ended up going with the Giants on this game.
But I like the pick, all right, I will accept that. Then let's get to your third pick. Here is it a spread? Did you go one, two three with each the different one money line over under and then spread?
Yep? So yeah, my favorite, my favorite favorite on the spread. So usually I like to avoid double digit spreads, but this is one that I actually really like this week, and it's the Bucks over the Bears. I go to the twelve and a half and it's just a bad stylistic matchup for the Bears offense and a fantastic style
listic matchup for the Bucks offense. So fifty two point four percent of the offensive yards gained by the Bears so far this season have come on the ground, which is by far the most mount almost ten percent more
than any other team. So they get like the majority of their yards come on the ground, and now they're facing a Bucks defense that is one of the best run defenses in the NFL, second in the NFL and opponent yards per carry at three point four and first in the NFL and opponent rushing yards per game, only allowing fifty four point eight rushing yards per game. So if they're limiting teams on the ground, I don't know how the Bears are gonna be able to move the
ball against them. And then the opposite is true for the Tampa Bay offense. Seventy nine point nine to seven percent of the Bucks offensive yards come through the air. That's the most in the NFL. And now they're facing a Bears defense whose weakness is the secondary they rank nineteenth in the NFL and opponent yards per pass attempt. So, like I said, I don't love Benning double digit favorites in the NFL, but this is one that I'm going to back for sure because it's just styles make fights.
That's something that's something I kind of hold truth in most sports, and I think this is just a terrible stylistic matchup for the Bears.
Yeah, so it is twelve and a half at the consensus line. It is twelve. Oddly enough, at my book DraftKings, I probably can't go there just because, like you, I just despise the giant spreads. If I did have to go one place, I think I would take the blocks. And I was a little ambivalent on it early in the year and early in the week. Pardon me, I think really the issue is for me, You're right, they're not going to be able to run the ball. By
the way, Khalil Herbert is also banged up. We don't know whether or not Damian Williams is even coming off the COVID list. So even if they wanted to run the ball, who knows if they could. But you're going to have to have Justin Fields open it up and throw the ball here against a pretty decimated secondary that can certainly be beaten. But do we trust Justin Fields
to be able to do that? Is the question. I mean, when you can beat a team one way and the person who's in charge of beating them that way has not impressed the entire season, it is difficult to see them covering this spread. Now we do. Antony Brown, I think this practice again today, so we'll see whether or not he plays. But again, the Bucks are off the Mini bi right because you know, they played on Thursday,
so they have a little extra time to prepare. So I think, like you, if I were in your position I was forced to bet every single game, I would take the Bucks. But it's a. I'm leery of the giant. You know, there's so many giant spreads right now this week are out of curiosity. We'll get there. Actually, we'll get there later. So I want to know what you're doing with all the other giant spreads. But I'm going
to take a Gamian. I feel confident you're on the you have taken the other side of this, okay, so we'll see about this one. I am going to take the Eagles getting three points from the Raiders.
Now.
When I looked at this on Monday and I opened it up, I said, I'm pretty sure I'm going to wind up taking the Raiders because it felt like the right side. And then I dug into it a little bit, and I think that the Eagles are not only going to cover the spread, but if I had more intestinal fortitude, I would take them on the money line because I do think they wind up pulling this one out. I cannot quit the Eagles. I have tried. I don't know why I continue to back them, but I am going
to do it. But it's also sort of a cell high spot for the Raiders. Right we had all these questions, how are the Raiders gonna respond? After the whole John Gruden thing, and they responded incredibly and it was one of two ways it can go, and the way it went was, Okay, we've got this giant weight lifted off our shoulder now, and they put up a tremendous effort there. But I think this is actually a good matchup here, especially for the Eagles defense, because what you've got is
the Raiders that what do they really make their money on. Offensively, it's the explosive place, right like, that's what they do. They lead the league in pass plays of twenty plus yards with thirty two overall. But the Eagles converse, they are basically at the opposite end of the spectrum. They absolutely limit those plays. That's what their defense is almost designed to do. And you know, even though they have played the Bucks and the Cowboys and the Chiefs, they've
allowed just eleven pass plays of twenty plus yards. So it is something where basically the Raiders' strength meets the exact strength of the Eagles defense. The Raiders can't really run the ball. Their offensive line is bad. They're averaging thirty three point four yards per carry. Pardon me. They twenty eighth in rush rushing DVA offensively, and the Eagles defensive line is very good and Derek Carr really there are two ways there at Car succeeds when you watch
him play. Number one, there is no pressure on him and he's able to have time and survey the field. Are number two, he gets blitzed. Pretty good against the blitz but he is not good as most quarterbacks when you're able to get pressure on him without blitzing. That is something the Eagles do very very well. So offensively at the very least, I don't expect the Raiders to
have a huge game for the Eagles offensively. Like the Bucks, they're coming off a mini bi I think they finally found a little bit of something here with Miles Sanders, which everybody in the world. I mean, you have their fans derisively cheering when they finally gave Sanders a carry, and they don't do it on a good day. They weren't doing it against the Bucks. But Sanders has played well when he's gotten the work. He played well against
the Bucks when he got the work. You can attack the Raiders a little bit more here on the ground. Their secondary is also a little banged up. The Philadelphia is getting Dallas Goddard back now he's been activated off the COVID lit Sirianna's got to get something going. Okay, they're tuned four. They look stagnant on offense, is getting a lot of heat. I think they're going to take this week to design a game plan. It's basically a cell high spot here on the Raiders as well, So
I don't I don't hit the under either. It's forty nine and a half for me, but my official pick is going to be the Eagles getting three points against the Raiders in Las Vegas. Tell me you're on the other side.
No, So we're actually in agreement on this game. Now, I didn't I didn't back the Eagles though, but if I was going to take the spread out, I would have taken the Eagles. But I did take the bet that you just mentioned, which is the under. So I'm I'm on the under in this game. I agree with a lot of the points that you just that you just made two underrated defenses. Eagles are third in the NFL and pony yards per play. Vegas is fifth in the NFL and the pony yards per play. Both teams
are good against the pass. The reason why I didn't take the Eagles and why they scared me a little bit, and you kind of alluded to it there you mentioned it, Eagle's very good at running the ball, but they kind of refuse to do it for their tenth and like passing play percentage, like they're just passing the ball like in the upper third of the NFL, but yet their
second in the NFL in yards per carry. Like they're very good, very effective at running the ball, but they just don't do it that much, which makes no sense to me, especially when your quarterback is Jalen Hurts, like, run the ball like, I don't know. I don't know what they're doing. They haven't shown me yet that they're willing to do it, and until they are, I'm going to stop betting on them. Because actually, you mentioned at the start of your pick two about how much you've
been betting on the Eagles. This is actually the first week I haven't taken the Eagles on the spread or money line, so I've been betting on the Eagles almost every week as well. But I want to see them start running the ball more, so I am going to take the under instead. I think it's just two underrated defenses well, I saw the total like I would have said it like forty six for me too.
Yeah, And to be fair, I wanted another spread bed here anyway, just because I want to get into it. And I did like the Eagles when I got into it, and then I checked what the total was, and when it was forty nine, I was like, wait, what so really that's probably almost a better play, But you know what doing in game teaser, then tease the total up and take the under, and then tease the spread up for me for the Eagles, And yeah, look the Eagles they wound up covering the spread despite how bad they
looked against the Bucks on Thursday. But also I do think I don't want to do the foulacity for rational coaching, but I think at this point, like you know, if you continue to do this, if you're Nick Siriani and you continue to run this offense through Jalen Hurts passing the ball and they continue to lose like this, that's just devastating for you as a coach, as a rookie coach, when you have someone like Miles Sanders and they run the ball pretty effectively. When they do so, they came out,
you know, Shane Seken they came out. They basically like, we got to run the ball a little bit more here, So I do think that this is a spot for them to do that. So all right, let's recaut the picks very quickly. You're taking the Bengals on the money line against the Ravens at plus two point thirty. That's dropping, by the way, I see a couple of books now dropping it, So get on it now if you like that.
You're taking the Jets and the Patriots under forty two and a half, a pick that I like very much as well, and the Bucks playing twelve and a half to the Bears. I'm taking the Panthers laying three to the Giants. I'm also taking the under forty three in that same game, and I'm also taking the Eagles getting three in Las Vegas. Let's run through the remaining spreads that we haven't touchdown, now, people, you know what I'm
gonna actually ask it people listening to this. It'll drop, I'm sure before the Thursday night game, but just in case afterwards, so we can have our record. Where did you go here with the Broncos and the Browns? Since you have to pick every game right now, The spread, by the way, is at one and a half. I don't know if you were able to get it early enough at the you know, the the Broncos getting three and a half.
Originally, I'm on the Browns, so I lock in my bets Wednesday night. So did already drop down to one and a half.
Okay.
I'm a big underreact guy when it comes to injury news, So anytime you know, a player comes out like Baker Mayfield in this game, everyone's gonna jump on the Broncos. I like to underreact to the news and stick with that team. I did it last week. Russell Wilson got ruled out obviously, the sure Gino Smith got put in. Every everyone was betting against the Seahawks, they went with the Steelers. I underreacted to it. I took the Seahawks
on the spread and a work though for me. So yeah, I'm sticking with the Browns here minus one and a half. I just think the offensive line is going to be able to get the job done. Denver's dead last the NFL and third down conversion percentage, which is a bad sign for their offense. I think the Browns get it done and case Keenum's a very capable backup.
Oh yes, case Kinon's won the better backup quarterbacks only he could probably start for one or two teams here in the NFL. I am, I'm going to say this is a game that only betters and fantasy players can really love. But let's go to the Packers at home right now, laying seven and a half. There are some eight and a half's actually out there, so it's wild a little bit here. The Packers at home, length seven and a half to Washington.
I'm taking Washington and the points in this one. I think people are overvaluing the Packers, especially their offense. Everyone's looking at Aaron Rodgers, you know, reigning MVP. They're eighteenth in yards per play, only slightly better than Wall at twenty first fourteenth and third down conversion percentage, twenty second, red zone offense, fifteenth in yards per carry, So statistically they're an average offense and defensively, fun little fact about them,
dead last and red zone defense. Every single time an opponent has gone into the red zone this year, they've scored a touchdown fifteen red zone trips fifteen touchdowns. That's not a good sign. I like Washington in the points.
All right, we already know you like the Bengals getting the six and a half, certainly from the Ravens as you mentioned. How about your Falcons traveling to Miami off a bye and getting two and a half points. No, giving to a half points. I'm so sorry giving to and a half points.
Yeah, I'm going to back my Falcons here. I'm starting to buy in on them a little bit, to be completely honest. Dolphins, Panthers, Saints next three weeks. I've bought in on the fact they're gonna be five and three and in the hunt for wild card spot. But I think the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL quite frankly. And Falcons right now eighth in red zone offense, fifth and third down conversion percentage. I think that's a
good sign of this offense. I think Arthur Smith is kind of coming into his own with his play calling, Matt Ryan a little bit more comfortable to the passable game. So I'm gonna lay the points with the Falcons.
Yeah, the offense is definitely playing a little better and the Dolphins are just in disarray right now. Also, I don't know how you don't take the buy after London, because I believe they offer every team that after London and you can't take the buy, and they opted not to terrible. There were obviously all the rumors about the Shaun Watson you know yesterday, so that team is just tough. And even if the secondary gets healthier with Zaman Howard
and Barne Jones, like, I can't really trust them. So I am with you. Originally, when I first looked at it, I was like, I think the doll you know, they're not quite that bad, but I do trust a little bit more of the Falcons coming off the buy. How about the Jets are visiting New England, they are getting seven.
That was the under that I'm on. I think if I go with the spread, I think i'd have to take Jets in the points because their defense is extremely underrated. Like I said earlier, second red zone defense. So I would take the Jets and the points. But that's my under.
Yeah, it's a complete I know you're on the ender, of course, but I would avoid. I can't take this bread like I just it's a terrible thing. I don't mac Jones when you were laying a touchdown is just not so thing I'm comfortable doing. Despite the fact that he has played pretty well, and you're hopeful that the Jets off the buy sort of get something going here. But it's a tough one, this one. I'm interested to hear which way you went. The Chiefs are visiting the Titans.
The Chiefs are laying five. What'd you do with that one?
I just took the over. I mean, flip a coin if you're gonna go to spread. Both these teams just just some of the worst defenses in the NFL right now. The total totals what up to, like fifty seven or something.
Yeah, fifty seven, yep.
I mean that's an it's insanely high total. But I can't back either team based on their defense. I mean the Chiefs laying points, I mean their defense is literally the worst in the NFL right now, So I can't lay. I can't lay points. I don't care who's their quarterback, I don't care how good their offense is. And then the Titans, I mean, their defense is almost as bad as the chief So on the spread, flip a coin, I guess the Chiefs have the better offense. Both defenses stink.
I'm just gonna take the over and roof some points.
Yeah, It's a terrible game to bet, really, and it's a weird spot too, because the Titans are coming off the Giant win on Monday Night. Who knows what that does to them, you know, exactly. So I mean, forced to pick a side, probably I'll take the Chiefs with get lay in the points. But it's a game that this would be the game, and this would be a game that on a spread level, I would just try to desperately avoid. We talked about the Panthers and the Giants.
Let's get some of the bigger spreads. You've got the Rams laying fifteen and a half to Detroit in Los Angeles.
Yeah, this is a big plug your nose game. I think you have to take the lines at that many points. I know you mentioned earlier you don't like betting double digit favorites. I'm the same way. But where I draw the line is two touchdowns. If you're gonna lay a team is getting over two touchdowns, I have to take the underdog. I mean, this is the NFL. These guys are professionals or professional athletes. They're gonna show up. This is not college football Alabama against South Carolina. These teams
are gonna show up. But I mean, I'm a big stats guy. I look at stats more than anything else. And if you're gonna bet at based on the stats, you have to take the Rams. Like Rams are first in the NFL, and yards per past ten lines are dead last, so you literally have the best passing offense against literally the worst passing defense. So all the stats say the Rams are gonna win by like thirty, but
the NFL is just yeah, fifteen points is none. The Rams could be up twenty one points, the line score like a garbage time touchdown with a minute left, and they're covering.
So yeah, no, I'm That's the thing. I think if the Rams wanted to and they kept their foot on the gas, they'd win this game by thirty one points, right, Like, they can do whatever they want. But they won't, right because at the end of the game, they're just going to ease back, and you're right, it just screams back to our cover. I agree. If I have to go somewhere, I am taking the points, as I do with most of these games. We talked already about the Eagles Raiders,
We talked already about the Bears and the Bucks. Another big spread, Cardinals ar laying seventeen and a half points to the Houston Texans Or is this another point where you're just like you have to take the points or what?
Yeah, just take everything I just said about the last game and apply seventeen and a half points the NFL game. And also don't forget like I can kind of actually understand a little bit more with the Rams, but like the Cardinals defense eighteenth in opponent yards per play, second last, and opponent yards per carry. Teams are getting five point
two yards per carry on the ground against them. This like no defense that's like an average to below average defense should be a seventeen and a half point favorite against an NFL team. Makes no sense to me. He got it back the Texans here.
Yeah, I hate it, but I agree. And the Sunday night game, forty nine ers are laying four to the Colts at very interesting or what you think about this one?
Yeah? This is this is a tough game as well. I would put this right behind the Giants Panthers as far as the toughest games to GAINDICAP this week. I am gonna lay the points with the forty nine ers in this one. It really just comes down to the they have the much better defense. Really, both offenses are kind of comparable so far, especially like third down defense, which is something I look at quite a bit. Same with the red zone defense. Forty nine ers fourth and
third down defense, Colts are twentieth. Colts are also terrible against the pass. No, the forty nine Ers obviously aren't a huge passing team, twenty eighth in opponent yards for past attempt The forty nine Ers will be able to do something against the air, against the through the air against this Colts team, I'm gonna lay the points with the forty nine ers, but it's definitely not one of my better bets of the week. It's a tough one.
Yeah. When I looked at this on Monday, I like the Colts actually a lot, and now I don't. It's just to stay away from me, you know, the forty
nine ers, you know, at home as a favorite. It's not like something where I want to necessarily back Kyle Shannan off the by though, you know, with Jimmy g back in there, which helps them, you know, from a betting perspective, at least in my opinion as of right now, with the Colts, I really do like what I've seen from them a little more offensively, and they're getting a little healthier, at least on the offensive line. Of course, maybe Quentin Nelson comes back, maybe, but they've also got
other injuries. Hilton is fifty to fifty for Sunday, so I don't think you can rely on him. They obviously just lost Paris Campbell, and they have injuries on defense as well, So I think I would just if I if I had to bet like you, I would probably lean the forty nine ers, but I'm staying away. And finally, the Saints are visiting the Seahawks on Monday Night and the Seahawks are getting four and a half points. What do you think?
Yeah, this is a very similar handicap to the Sunday night game. I'm back the Saints laying the points here because it just comes down to the difference between the two defenses. Saints offense is actually not could at all and the Seahawks offense has completely lost their bite with Russell Wilson and Gino Smith in. But the Saints defense, compared to the Seahawks defense, just completely night and day.
Saints have the best rush defense right now, only allowing three point three yards per carry, best red zone defense as well, which is absolutely huge. Also been a good road bet recently, fourteen to four against the spread in their last eighteen road games, So I think the defense is what makes the big difference here. Obviously, if Russell Wilson was playing, it's a different story. But I'll lay the points with the Saints in this one just based on how good their defense has been.
Yeah, as well, I coming off the buy as well. I think they've got plenty of time to prepare, and you know that the Seayoffs are a little banged up here after that tough game there against the Steelers. All right, Ian, excellent work and again every your incredible job that you're doing this season, Like the number actually boggles my mind. So everybody make sure they follow you, but go ahead and tell everybody where they can find you in your work.
Thank you. Yes, Twitter is probably the best place. eMac bets ai n m Ac Bets in the Bacon Bets podcast that gets released every Thursday morning, where I break down my pick for every single NFL game that week, So check that out as well.
Yeah, and I probably should again recap just all our picks just in case somebody you know forgot what they were the Bengals. You were taking the Bengals on the money line plus two thirty against the Ravens, the Jets and the Patriots under forty two and a half, and the Bucks laying twelve and a half to the Bears. I am taking the Panthers laying three to the Giants the under in that same game forty three, and also the Eagles getting three from the Raiders. Thanks everybody for
tuning in. Again, if you're listening to this, we be back on Monday again breaking down with our early look at the Week eight NFL lines. And again, you want to watch this, you want to see a bunch of videos that we put out, go ahead and subscribe over on our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. Thanks again for listening to everybody. I'll talk to again on Monday, m