Hey there everyone, and welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. It is time for our early look at next week's lines. And with me to break it all down is Jason Logan, the senior managing editor for Covers. You can find him on Twitter at Covers j Loo. Jason, thanks again for coming on the show. How's it going.
It's going pretty well? Pretty well? How about yourself?
Not bad? How was week five for you? Out of curiosity in the betting department?
Week five, I went a little lighter in week five. Week four was not so good. Yeah, week Week five was a little hit and miss. But I'm waiting on the Browns to come through tonight.
All right, Well, we're recording this shortly before kickoff, so let's see if we can get you there so you can enjoy the game.
I have a TVD yell asto.
I got it, I got it. We'll move you in and out real quick. All right, So Jason and I are going to go through each game here on the slate. For week six, we're going to be using the consensus odds over at betting pros dot Com. That's just an aggregation of the odds that are available on the market.
As always, there are going to be differences at the various sports books, so make sure you shop around for the best odds, and also if you want to see how some of the top sports betting experts are leaning on any given bet at any given time, bettingpros dot Com is going to show you that too. All right, Jason, let's dive right in here with the Giants against the Patriots on Thursday night. Right now, I've seen the spread
move all the way up to seventeen. I checked earlier today it was about sixteen and a half, and the over under down to forty two and a half, down from forty four and a half. I don't think I've seen anything on whether or not Sequon Barkley is actually going to play, but it does sound like Sterling Shepherd's probably going to miss this game. I don't know if that accounts for the move. But what do you think about the line?
Yeah, I mean they're down to what they're third string running back.
Right now, John Hilleman, I believe is that it.
Who knows at that point. Barkley wasn't Pats proxicing last week. I mean, these guys are kind of superheroes and the way they can come back. But this one's moved though almost a field goal. Since the opener. Some of the look ahead lines had minus fourteen, now up to minus seventeen. It's it's again it's that Belichick versus rookie QB. So I think, if I have my numbers correct, Patriots versus
rookie QB's at home under Belichick. So that since two thy eleven and no straight up seven and four against the.
Spread, Okay, well that's certainly something that pour ten's good things for the Patriots.
Now.
The one thing is the Patriots are dealing with, you know, some minor injuries to themselves. You know, Philip dor said it sounds like it's a minor ankle injury. Rex burg Head may again miss his game. They start out kind of slow, oddly enough against the Redskins, right, they didn't look great, and then they wound up you know, and I know because I live in New England, so my entire my in laws were not happy. And I'm like
watching the Jets get destroyed by the Eagles. So it's not a happy Sunday for me, but yeah, I agree. I mean I think it's at you know, Thursday games. I don't know how much more this is going to move at this point, but certainly, and the over under is dropped by at least when I checked it earlier, by two points as well. So it sounds like they seem to do you have do you see any value right now? In the early life it's seventeen or forty two and a half or is that about where it is?
Boy? I mean is yeah, that's a tough one. I mean, if if you got that early the fourteen, good anya. But now that it's moving up, I mean I expect it to probably move up. I'm not the only one that's going to spit off these Belichick sort of stats, and everyone's going to play into that. And if Saquon Barkley doesn't play, I think that's probably worth another half point, you know, as the public kind of jumps on that too.
So I mean, seventeen seventeen is still I mean, if you want to do the football mask stella, seventeen is still kind of a key number. So to say that it might be value to get the Pats at minus seventeen. Right now, it seems funny coming out of my mouth, but it might actually be the right play. However, like you said, they started slow. Brady didn't look good against the Bills. He didn't look great against the first half here against the There was the Jets last week. Correct, No, sorry,
never Redskins, Redskins. It might yeah, it could have been anyway.
Man, the Redskins, the Jets, the Dolphins, all.
Yeah, ring them on. That's right. The Redskins start off slow and then they but they make those second half a job. It was more Sony Michelle than anything. So I mean, if you want to say, well, okay, maybe they stick with Sony Michelle, maybe they stick with the run game, then it doesn't a lot for that amount of points to be scored to cover the spread. But we've seen this defense do work too, so this defense
can put up points as well too. So now that it is seventeen and knowing that it is a short week and probably you don't want to rush back Saquon Barkley from a high ankle spring, yeah, the Pats minus seventeen might be as good as it gets right now.
Yeah, I think if I were going to make a play at this point, it would be on the Pats. If anything, I think it might move I guess possibly a little higher. But this is probably in my mind where it's can settle and if I'm forced to bet some way, it's probably on the Patriots. But these big lines, man, I hate them. You know the fact that this is just every week you're going to get these these monstrous lines, Well just in a parody, I know, I know it's crazy.
Well a little more parody here with our next game in London Panthers versus Buccaneers. I actually did not realize, so you told me before we started recording that this is unlike this past week with the Raiders and the Bears, this is actually going to be at nine to third, which just makes me happy because it's all day Sunday football. The Panthers here are laying two and a half. The first time I looked it was at one and a half.
I don't know what the look head line was, but when I looked at it early, I think last night it was at Panthers laying one and a half. They're laying two and a half now and it's moved the over under up two points from forty six and a half to forty eight and a half. This is that rough stretch here for the Bucks. This is basically their third straight road game, even though they're right, even though they're the home I don't I don't think they play a home game until Week ten.
I believe the Bucks and the Raiders are kind of on that same yeah highway to hell. It's like forty nine days without a home game. Yeah.
Meanwhile, the Panthers, I mean they've they've kind of righted the ship a bit here with you know, Kyle Allen, who's kind of, you know, relative more accurate than Cam Newton was. Christian McCaffrey not a normal human being.
So it has two working legs.
Yeah, that helps, that is So how do you feel here, Panthers laying two and a half at the moment over under forty eight and a half?
Yeah, this is kind of Tampa Bay's run defense, which is a giving up only three point one yards per carries versus McCaffrey. And this might as well be the Carolina McCaffrey's because that's how this guy has put the team on his shoulder. But they did a good job against McCaffrey in week two. I mean, this is kind of a this is a rematch, a rare rematch already, right, thirty seven yards on sixteen carries in Week two. The Panthers defense looked good against Minshew there last week, got
some pressure on him, forced some fumbles. They have twenty sacks on the season. The Bucks allowed eighteen sacks already this year. We know that that Jameis Winston isn't the best decision maker when under pressure, so I could see why the line has swung such a such so much. I've seen it open around a pick yep. But like you said, three three road games in three weeks for this Bucks team is that's tough. And then you've got to go across the pond, and that's just a whole
it's a whole other Hornets mess. There's so much, so many logistics and everything behind those I hate.
I hate betting on Bucks games, I really do. You don't know what which Jamis Winston is going to show up, right, and.
Then that's exactly what happened last week, exactly looked Terri Well on Sunday the week before. He was a golden fantasy gods.
Yeah, absolutely, yeah, I mean I think for me, right now, I'd probably lean towards the Panthers, but it's just not a game that I feel comfortable with. I like them in that first game. I think they were laying six and a half and they would have won that game, maybe not covering the spread, had Newton basically been able to throw the ball.
I'm with you on these early games. I love the English thinglsh brought breakfast games, right, Bengers and beans and the eggs and.
Toasts absolutely can't go wrong. Let's move on here to Texans and Chiefs. This one you've seen a load of movement in. I mean I checked last night, so I don't even know what the look aheadline was, but last night the consensus odes were minus eight. Right now it's all the way down to minus five. Now, I get you've got some issues here with the Chiefs after last night. Patrick Mahomes dealing with the ankle injury. It doesn't it's obviously not going to keep him out or anything like that,
but it's limiting him. Sammy Watkins now dealing with a hamstring injury on top of the shoulder. Chris Jones suffered a groin strain and is going to miss the games. Davier Williams sprained his ankle. He might play. Maybe Tyreek Hill comes back. Meanwhile, the Texans put up a big number over beating down on the Falcons. How do you feel here? Chiefs now minus five over under still high fifty five and a half.
Yeah, this one, this one had to move off of sharp money because it was eight around noon today. It was still like eight seven and a half and then boom, instantly within I think within a half an hour, dropped to five. So that's that's big play coming in kind of you know, hedging those injuries. Yeah, I kind of want to get ahead of the get ahead of those injuries. And could this be, you know, the betting public falling
out of favor with Kansas City. They had a tough game in Detroit, didn't cover there and then they get rolled by the Colts. And it may be that you look at what the Lions and the Colts did, did
they build the blueprint for beating the Chiefs? And I talked about it today with Patrick Eeverson, who's our senior writer in Las Vegas, and said that with this Chiefs defense, you know they're bad, you know they're going to give up yards, but you can't if you if you're the offense, you can't be too greedy that you just blow through them and then give the ball back to my homes. And that's what the that's what the Lions and Colts
have done. They've been really really thoughtical with it. The Detroit ran one hundred and eighty six yards on thirty five carries. Time of possession was almost thirty four minutes, and then the Colts ran one hundred and eighty yards on forty five carries. Time of possession was over thirty seven minutes.
You know, the problem though, is that the Texans aren't really built to run an offense like that, right, I mean they don't have I mean they have, you know, they have success running the ball so far generally speaking with Hyde and Duke Johnson. But they're they're the type of team that you know, you turn around, then you come back and you know, Deshaun Watson's you know, busted off a fifty yard run or he's throwing them you know, right, So it's it's almost like an odd you know, way
to attack them. But this really, I mean, with their injuries, this is really something that's going to be interesting. I know, they lost yesterday. But Arrowhead, of course, is still a difficult place to play. Do you think it's a godly Do you think it's going to drop lower than minus five or is this basically where you expect? Maybe?
Yeah, you know, five being that dead number, and they've already just blown through so many key numbers. I don't think it's going to come down too much further than this. I mean, so it goes through seven and a half and seven and six and a half, and so five seems to be that dead number, that's safe number right now until they get some more until they get some more information. Yeah. I need to remember too that usually limits at the sports books are a little bit lower
earlier in the week when they open these odds. So I mean, while it is sharp money coming in, they they may be okay.
I mean, that's a pretty dramatic move, you know, at least for me. I know you've been doing this for a while, but three points this early, right off the bat, especially when there are these limits coming on, It kind of shocked me to see it go three points without the major injury, you know, to a major offensive lineman or someone like Mahomes. So I was a little bit surprised on this one. All right, Jason, Let's move on
to our next game, Seahawks at the Browns. Browns are laying two and a half and the over under is at forty seven. So we're recording this before I guess the Browns game has just started, so we don't know what's going to happen tonight. But I was a little bit surprised about this one. Just the Browns have looked a little disjointed. I know, they looked good last week against the Ravens, but the Seahawks have looked pretty strong.
I mean they, you know, not great. They have their defense has been a little leaky, but certainly the offense has been great. So I honestly expected this to be closer to maybe like a pick them. I know, it doesn't matter that much when you're below sort of the key number of three, but I'm a little bit surprised here by the Browns laying two and a half and the over under at forty seven.
Yeah, I think, I mean, there's still a lot to be said here with the Monday night game. There were a lot of positives coming out of Cleveland here over the last two games, even the last three games, the defense starting to really pick up, starting to get stingy, fantastic special teams really pinning teams back. They've got that strapping Scottish punter pinning guys way back in the ends. I've giving the defense a good helping hand as well too. But like you said, this one's still up in the air.
But you know they're back home after two straight on the road. They had played i believe, three road games in four weeks, so a tough stretch to get to come back home, and you know, give this crowd what they've been waiting for for a long time now. Seattle, though, doing a lot of things right, limiting opponents on third downs. I think twenty nine percent of the last three games time of possession. They're chewing up the clock, they're running
the football, they're not giving away the ball too. They got five takeaways. Russell Wilson no interceptions. He's probably the most It depends on where you're betting and if you're a Seahawks fan or not, but he's probably the most annoying player to watch if you're betting against him, because there's so many times in which you're cheering your mid cheer for a sack and all of a sudden, Wilson slips out. I mean, he's playing, he's he's earning all
that money, he's playing out at MVP caliber right now. Again, there's so much to be left to be said here for Cleveland Monday night. But yeah, Seattle just looks really, really good right now.
Yeah, and really one of the reasons why I was surprised is you know that the Browns are playing right now, it's Monday night. It's going to be a short week. Meanwhile, Seattle is basically playing off a mini bi here where they played on Thursday, so they have extra rest. And yet to your point about Wilson at one, correct, I mean to throw the touchdown there that you got it on Thursday night.
Not I wasn't even that wasn't upset and I had the Rams. I had the Rams plus two, and I wasn't he been upset. I was like, that's pretty damn nice. Bro.
Well you wind up winning anyway, so that's all good. So yeah, well we'll see what happens. I think it's probably going to depend on tonight's game, because again, if the Browns come out and they look really strong again, then then things have probably changed and maybe that that line's correct.
And I think the line is set kind of where it can move right now. Sure off of that, so if they have a bad performance, so they can kind of maybe ticket down. If they look good, it can go up to the touchdown or sorry, the field goal.
Absolutely. All right, let's move on here to the Bengals at the Ravens. This one, when I first checked was the Ravens laying ten. It has moved to currently Ravens laying eleven and a half. The over under has moved half a point up to forty eight from forty seven and a half. Not look the Ravens. They have not looked particularly impressive lately. They didn't against the Steelers necessarily, they just lost Tony Jefferson. Marquise Brown is dealing with
an ankle injury. They barely squeak by the Steelers. But really, on the other side you have the Bengals, which is basically a pure dumpster fire at this point. So, I mean, are we gonna keep is this sharp money? By the way, do you think that's moving it up from ten to eleven and a half?
I mean, usually early money is sharp money to begin with, But there's a lot of injuries to the Cincinnati team right now. There is a team that likes to throw the ball in seventy percent of snaps and they don't have any wide receivers that left. Green's gone, Ross has gone, Alec Erickson out with a concussion. Yeah, it's basically Tyler Boyd and on and Tate Yeah, and then yeah, they're going to be bringing some guys out of the stands to catch some balls. Yeah. But it's like you said,
the Ravens haven't looked great. It's a possible look ahead spot for them because they have Seattle next week. They go to Seattle. They haven't covered a spread in four weeks since the massacre against Miami there, right, And I actually I've liked the Bengals this season. I've actually bet them three times on the road and they've gone two and one for me. And they've been a good bet on the road. So since two thousand and seven, they're thirteen and six ats on the road yep. And they're
eleven and six ats as a road dog. However, that Monday night game against the Steelers just completely soured me. Here. They got gas on the ground by Arizona as well too. Gave up two hundred and sixty six yards and that's exactly what the Ravens are going to do. They're just going to run it down their throats. You know. Do the Ravens take their foot off the gas at the end.
I don't know. It's a divisional game. I guess I would have to lean Ravens here, But since the line is ticking upward and gone through the key numbers there, I just I don't want to touch it.
Yeah, I hate this line. I'm not going anywhere near it. And I agree, Yeah, I love the Bengals on the road. I bet them, you know, especially when they were against the Bills and in Week two getting six, which they covered, you know, Andy Dalton. In primetime, you never know, you know, for that Monday night game that's a little scary. This
one is not in primetime. But I agree, this is a game where look, if I if I had to, you know, sort of lay a position, it would probably be on the Ravens if it's going to stay at eleven and a half. But it is not something where I'm looking a bit. It's just something where you could easily see, you know, sort of like the Cardinals, not in the same way, but they were way ahead and they just kind of eased up a little bit and in the end almost wound up losing that game.
And Bengals have Bengals have been strong in the second half of games. Yeah, so it could be a dirty back door cover. Yeah, talk to me like Sunday at like twelve fifty five.
All right, we'll do an emergency podcast that'll be like, yeah, of course, no, absolutely, Yeah, it's a it's a little tough, but I agree, it's just not one that I particularly like before. Maybe yeah, I mean, yeah, if you get if you get a few more numbers up there for the Ravens, I may bite the bullet here and go to the Bengals because you do. You're right, they are very good against the spread when they're on the road.
So the game against the Steelers notwithstanding. But anyway, before we move on, I want to tell everybody about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. You know about bet mgm already, and in particular the bet mgm Sports app, because it's the easiest and the best way to place a bet if you are in the state of New Jersey. Just search for and download the bet MGM sports app on your phone or visit betmgm dot com, sign them for an account and you can place a bet right
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full list of terms and conditions. And if you've got a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, Jason, let's move on here to the Saints at the Jaguars. Saints are laying one at this point. The over under is forty four and a half. Pretty impressive showing by the Saints against the Bucks, taking the reins off Teddy Bridgewater. Jags is a tough game against the Panthers. Still looks
like Jalen Ramsey's gonna be out here. What do you think Saints saying one over under at forty four and a half.
Yeah, it's been there with the Gardner Minshew show the last couple of weeks, and he was great and then horrible at times during Carolina. He's got to and he really showed his kind of his rookie stripes in that game. There were times in which he should have thrown away the ball, but he tried to make a little too much out of whatever. Uh, and he had those three fumbles and it killed me. I was on the Jags this weekend, by the way. Yeah, yeah, but they a
tough spot for them too. They were playing back to back road games. That was three and four weeks for them as well too. But the Saints defense is really starting to show up. Yeah, they had that. I thought while they only had the one, they had one big sack against Dallas. They got good pressure in Prescott that six sacks against the Bucks. And if they can bring the heat here, I think they're gonna be okay. And
the rushing defense stepping up as well too. They only give up three point six yards per carry over their last three games, and that includes Seahawks and Cowboys as well to two games two teams that really hit the ground, run and Fournette. You know, they might be able to take away Fournette and kind of put it on the shoulders of this of this team. It's it seems crazy, but you know, Teddy Bridgewater is doing just enough to
keep them safe. He's not hurting them, and the defense, just after a terrible start of the season, seems to be picking it up.
Yeah, I think this line's gonna move a little bit towards the Saints. I mean, it was a pick them when I first looked at it, and now it's minus one. I think you're I don't think you're gonna get close to the you know three or anything. I don't think you're gonna hit the key number. But I think it's gonna go towards the Saints, and I kind of like it there, you know, if you if you can get
it at minus one, I kind of like it. I think the Jags are just kind of the wheels are falling off a little bit here, especially with Jayalen Ramsey gonna be out and again, yeah, the Saints can stop the run, so I think they'll stop Fournette. And as good as Minshew has been generally speaking, you know, I think asking him to win a game, especially when you can have Lattimore maybe take out Chark or something like that,
a little tough. So I like the Saints here, and I probably get in on it early because I think i'd expect the line to continue to move towards the Saints. Let's move on here at the Eagles. At the Vikings. Vikings are laying two and a half. It was three, actually, and the over under is at forty four. I don't know about you, man, I still kind of feel like the Vikings are a little undervalued here. I thought they were against the Giants. I like them with that spread
below three, I really like it. I expected it to climb because the Eagles they beat the Jets easily, but their offense didn't look particularly great. It was mostly their defense. So Vikings two and a half over under forty four, what do you think?
Yeah, that's right. They haven't looked good and the slow starts. You still kind of haunt this Eagles team here too, But I mean you look at what they had against the Jets had two defensive scores because so I kind of puffs up that stat line. They didn't pass well, they didn't run well, and they've found themselves in routinely
tight games here. It was a five point game against Washington, four point game against Atlanta, three points against Detroit, and it was seven points with a win over Green Bay, which was a big character win for them, right, But still that was that was a tight game. There was a seven point game for just about the entire fourth quarter. Nothing's really come easy for them. I look at them. I agree with you on this one. I think the Vikings do have the better offense, or at least the
more consistent offense. The way they've been able to run the football. They kind of they the squeak a wheel, got a little bit of the grease.
They knew it was coming, but they did.
They did it early on and then they got right back to the running game and pounded out. I think they I think they do have the better defense at only three at home, like you said, And if you look at the vig around this game too, like this afternoon it was minus it was Vikings minus three flat. Yeah, right, So that that tells me that, you know, should this one go to minus two and a half, I'm gonna take the Vikes right away.
Yeah, right now. The consensus at two and a half. So you know, you obviously could get it at some sports books at this point if you can. I agree, I jump all over that. The one thing is that Eagles are pretty good against the run, but you know, the the Vikings show that they can pass in this game. They finally opened it up a little bit, so I really like them at home. I don't see much of a letdown coming in here. I think they know they're
going to keep moving it, so I like them. If you can get a below three, even APT three, I think I like them. But I'm surprised that it, at least the consensus odds appear to have dropped from three to two and a half.
I'll admit i'm actually checking accounts.
You've got to have an alert set up.
Well, actually, well I'm not gonna i'll plug a new app, but we do have an app that can alert to those sort of things.
Yeah, well, see if you could find it at two and a half, I don't let me see it. Hold on very quickly, let.
Me see it. I'm shopping it as we speak. Isn't that.
That's It looks like it's two and a half based on architects at DraftKings, So if you can get in on there, it's apparently two and a half there, it's two and a half at Sugarhouse. This is just fun. This is just two degenerates by the way, sitting here thinking where we can get the best odds.
So no, you need to Now I I am. I am located in the Great White North of Canada. Ah, so we do not have all those Pennsylvania and New Jersey sports books. However, I do have all the filthy online books.
Okay, fantastic, We'll keep looking at GET two and a half. We'll be all over that.
I'm just seeing threes. I'm seeing threes again.
All right, all right, well, I gotta go to New Jersey, come to the States.
I gotta I gotta gas up the Honda Odyssey and get my butt over the border.
Perfect. All right, you look real cool moving in there to the sports we like. Give me everything on two and a half. Al right, let's move on to another game that's going to show us essentially how many gamblers there are in the country or in Canada. Of course, with the Redskins at the Dolphins. Redskins here are laying three and a half the over unders of forty one.
I don't know. To me, this line's crazy. I mean, I get that the Dolphins are terrible and that they kind of you know, but the Redskins are in complete disarray at this point. I'm not even sure the Redskins should be favored.
Yeah, No, I totally agree with you. Patrick and I discussed this one today and I said, I think the wrong team is favored here. I think it really comes down to is do you trust the tank or not? He is Miami active tanking And if you think they are, then by all means bet the Redskins. But I made that mistake a couple of weeks ago and it's still still a sour taste. But if you look at if you look at these teams right now, like you said, like the QB situation is a mess, Gruden's gone, it's
a mess. And then you've got Miami coming off of bye week and they actually have the better QB situation. Josh Rosen has looked okay over the last few weeks, like he's he had a good day against the Charger seventeen to twenty four, and he's playing with like zero offensive line defenses know that he's passing it because the Dolphins are trailing by twenty one. And then he has wide receiver corps that has the worst butter fingers in
the league. I've never seen so many just spot on passes get dropped.
Right, No, I completely agree I mean, I guess the one thing is it's a variable with you know, Gruden, Gon and it's something where we don't know how the team's going to react. Maybe somehow they rally around. But I agree. When I saw that this was especially over three, I was shocked. I expected this to be maybe a pick.
Maybe this was the first bet I made of the week. Yeah, Dolphins was Dolphins plus three. And then you know what I did, I went, I'm waiting for it because I don't think it was out at the time. I'll have to go back and check it was the first half spread.
Oh that's a good idea.
Because you protect against the tanks and they may actually And the Dolphins have played okay in the early works the game. They were down ten to seven the first quarter against the Chargers, they were losing seventeen ten at the half. They were down ten three to the Cowboys. In the first quarter. They were down ten six and
a half. So they haven't been terrible. Yeah, what an he means in the first thirty minutes, And if you do actively think that they're tanking, then go ahead and you know, grab them plus two or plus one and a half or whatever. They kind of put that first half line at and then the great thing is that you don't have to watch the rest of this terrible football game.
That it's brilliant.
Frank, you can just get on. You can get on at your day and you know it's a brilliant strategy.
But I think for right now, if we're forced to bet at you and I both like the Dolphins getting three and a half, which makes me feel disgusting, but I'm willing to go with it for now. Nice forty nine ers at the Rams Rams here are laying four. Originally I think I saw might have been at five, but it's come down over under at forty nine. I mean, I guess you know, we'll see how the forty nine ers look tonight. As it's going on. They've looked pretty impressive early on.
I think they're killing me. They're killing the Rams.
Have not looked great in recent weeks. They've lost to the Bucks and the Seahawks. The offensive line is struggling, and in turn, so is Jared Goff Brandon Cooks dealing with the concussions. So what do you think here, Rams mind? As far you think, given how the forty nine ers look tonight, we haven't seen the end of the game. Is this gonna move further towards the forty nine.
Ers they if they do win, Yeah, honestly, yeah, I mean they're undefeated. They and they go in and come off the by with a strong performance. The Rams A crazy statu with the Rams. You know, the Rams are the only NFL team without a first quarter touchdown this season. Really, the only team without a first quarter touchdown are the.
Yes That Actually, now that I'm thinking back at all their games, Yeah, wow.
Golf has been incredibly slow. Fifty seven percent completion rate in the first quarter, two hundred and fifty seven total yards just in the first quarter. Teams kind of doing the same thing that they're doing to the Chiefs doing it to the Rams here. In the last few weeks, they've they've dominated time of possession and then the Rams have also been terrible trying to get them off the field on third downs, which is something that was the
strength of this team last year. Like I said, I'm still waiting to see the final of the San Francisco game before I kind of go all in here, but yeah, the Rams have at least not look good in the early workings of the games, and if San Francisco gets off to a quick start like they are here against the Browns tonight, then you know the Rams are forced to throw that football. Todd Gurley showed flashes of goodness there in his last game. He had a couple a couple of mistakes here and there.
But yeah, he did fumble, but he had the two touchdowns, and he had a couple of good runs. But his overall, I mean not that yards per carry is really the measure, but it wasn't great overall. Of still waiting kind of to see him. The big thing was he dominated the snap, so he's to play more. The Malcolm Brown experiment is silly, but I agree. If the forty nine ers, you know, finish this game, you don't know how it's gonna look.
But if they do, I mean, I'm gonna expect this to move closer to three as we get there, because the Rams really have not looked great. Let's move on here to the Falcons. At the Cardinals. Falcons currently at minus two. They were minus one when I looked early on the over under has jumped to fifty two. It was at forty nine. Uh, it's a little surprising to me. I mean, well, I guess not now that it's now that it's minus two, that that's really what I thought
when I first looked at minus one. As it's trending towards the Falcons, that's kind of what I thought. I mean, I get that, you know, the Cardinals had their first win over the Bengals and the Falcons defense is terrible. But you know, I guess I'm a little surprised. I kind of expected it to be a little more towards the Falcons, But now that it's trending that way, that that makes a little more sense to me. I don't know about you.
Yeah, it's the hot seat game for Dan Quinn, right if he doesn't win this game, I think I think the axe has to fall.
Yeah, I mean there, I mean I feel, you know, again, they've had tons of injuries on the defense can O'Neil being out, but I kind of expect them to rout. I just I don't trust the Cardinals, man. I mean, as much as you know to to win the game, I think the Falcons win it. And if you you know, if you think the Falcons are going to win it, then you probably think the Falcons are going to win it.
Possible, let down for Kingsbury and these guys after their first win. Yeah, no, absolutely that there. And then David Johnson has back issues, correct, that's right, said he couldn't sit down. And I've had back issues, and as someone that just purchased a brand new office chair, it's this is nice, this is nice right now. But I've had I've had those back issues where you can't sit down because it's sciatic pain and stuff like that. And if
that's what it is, then that's deep rooted. That's like bulging disc type stuff.
Yes, And I am a giant human, so I also have back problems. And I agree it's hard when you really when you win. And again Chase Edmonds is not going to get it done. It's unclear if Christian Kirk is going to play. So this strikes me as a game where the Falcons are absolutely desperate if they have any you know, belief at all, and Dan Quinn and I think they're going to come out firing. So I think more money is going to come in on the Falcons.
I think the line will probably move, not get up to three.
But can they scored a ton of points yeah, yeah, thank Houston. They just allowed a lot more.
Right, and they'll put up a ton of point That's why the over unders are fifty two. They'll put up a ton of points. I don't think they'll give up quite the offensive explosion to the Cardinals that they did against Texans. Before we finish up with our last couple of games, I do want tomind everyone about our September contest where we were giving away assigned Alvin Kamara helmet. We have extended it until October thirteenth, so you've got
a few more days to get in there now. To be entered into the contest, all you have to do is leave a review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. Takes two seconds to do it, and you're automatically entered into this and all future contests. So go ahead and do it, all right, your Cowboys, If I remember correctly, right at my Jets, Cowboys right
now are laying eight and a half. It was at seven the over unders of forty three and a half. Here's my take on it. You go ahead with it. If Sam Darnold plays, I'm going to feel disgusting, but I think I kind of like the Jets if the number is going to stay it eight and a half. Now, I don't know if this is going to move dramatically once we find out about Darnald sentence. If it's I'm all over the Cowboys, it doesn't matter because the defense is going to do it, and I assume that the
number will move substantially. But if it's at eight and a half with Darnold, I kind of like the Jets.
Is that crazy? No, it's not crazy. I absolutely agree with you. You know, they they've and the defense has played very very well for the Jets. Yeah, very very well. Now they're physical, they get after eight takeaways on the season. The problem is is that when they're playing offense, they're still playing defense, correct, you know what I mean. It's just don't just don't do it, don't screw anything up, right, Yeah,
they still do. They still screw it up. Yeah. And then the Cowboys play Philly next week as well too, so that's a big, big look ahead spot for them there. Turnovers have just killed the Cowboys here. They had two crucial fumbles in that game against the Saints. It was a tight game and that made the difference. Went and fumbled, and then Zeke fumbled, and then Dak was all over the place there yesterday with those turnovers, and they still, you know, they still had a chance at the end
of the game. Had they not had those turnovers, had they had taken care of the football, probably a different result. But you've got a very dangerous Jets team here, and if they do get Donald back, it actually gives them a little teeth on offense.
Wow, that's the first time I've ever heard anybody call the Jets dangerous, so I really appreciate it. But yeah, I mean, look, they their cornerback situation is not good, so you know, I'm sure that Dak's gonna be able, but they stop the run fairly well. They can get pressure on the quarterback, especially if CJ. Moseley does come
back for this, so I'm inclined to agree. I think, you know, all this talk about the Jets, they've been terrible, but anybody would be terrible with Luke Falk at quarterback. So if Donald comes back, I'm kind of lean towards the Jets. Sounds like you do too, so, but again, we're going to see where this line goes once we learn the health of Darnald Titans at the Broncos. Broncos here laying two and a half. The over under is at thirty eight and a half. It wasn't forty. It's
come down a bit. I want you to know that there is no team I hate more than the Titans, just because thank you for do you agree?
Oh my god, I was just what to say. There's no way in hell a bet in this game because the goddamn Tennessee Titans. I said to a guy the other day that I work with, I said, the Tennessee. Betting on the Tennessee Titans is like watching my fourteen year old load the dish. It's the most frustrating, frustrating, goddamn thing to sit through because he means well and they're trying really hard. But yeah, man, at the end, at the end of it, I've got to do the whole dish. One.
Yeah, I took him laying three to the Bills. I thought that they were gonna and you know, really they should have won that game. They had four miss field goes and the fact that they released Caro Sandoz is of just no consolation. So I agree for me, you know, in in in Denver, it's never an easy place to play no matter what, and they're coming off that big win. It's just not I'm just not gonna bet this at all. I don't have any faith, you know, in them whatsoever.
Sounds like you don't either, so let's just move That's.
The one advantage we have over the bookmakers is that they have to set odds for every single game, but we can choose which once in one a bit.
We're gonna choose to avoid this one. Let's move on to the Steelers. At the Chargers, this was five and a half, it's now six and a half. The over under was forty three and a half, it's now forty one and a half. I assume that you know, bookmakers are basically reacting to the Mason Rudolph injury and preparing for Devlin Hodges. Doesn't. I mean, I'm not a doctor, but given how hard it was, it it's going to shock me if Rudolf is able to recover in time
to play for this. So I think you're probably looking at Devlin Hodges right, that Chargers predictably lay this egg against Denver when they come in when it was all set up for them to sort of go. So how do you feel out of curiosity assuming that Hodges starts Chargers laying six and a half over under forty one and a half.
I mean, it's under the key number right now, so that might be the best it's going to get once the once the injury reports finally roll out, you're going to see reaction to it. Chargers seven to three ats in their last ten awful loss, which is just classic Chargers for you, Yes, just up and down and up and down. So I would say, if you if you are leaning towards the favorite in this one, I don't think it's going to get any better than this one hundred. Yeah, that's exactly right.
That's exactly right, because I mean, right now it's possible you don't know about my summer off. He was released from the hospital, so maybe they're thinking, but I'm going to be shocked. If he's gonna play, it's gonna be Devlin Hodges, and I think they're gonna come out angry, and right now below the key number of seven, I think is if you like the Chargers like I do, you gotta hop all over it if you're if you're in life at them. So let's move on to our
final game Lions at Packers. Really interesting one here. The Packers were originally favored by six. They're now favored by four and a half. The over under was forty six and a half now it's forty seven. Some injuries to the Packers secondary here, it sounds like Darnold Savage is going to be okay. I think Kevin King probably is going to be okay. It's unclear if DeVante Adams is going to play in this one. But you know, the Lions off of bye, what do you think They've been
impressive so far? Packers laying four and a half over under forty seven.
Yeah. I like the Lions coming into the season. I thought they were going to be much more improved on defense under Matt Patricia in year two, and they lost so many key pieces of this offense at the end of last year that you really didn't get a fair shake and see what they could do. And this is a team that can hit the home run, which is great. And it's funny to come into a matchup where Detroit and Green Bay plays and you're like, you know what this is the home run team is the Detroit Lions.
Because what we saw from what we've seen from Green Bay. Is you know this? They dominated Dallas on the ground, a little shorter, shorter, quicker passes. You want to know another crazy stat here, Aaron Rodgers does not have a fourth quarter touchdown pass?
Yeah, I was thinking, is he not the king of fourth quarter touchdown They they have completely taken just through if you took at the season as a whole, they basically stopped playing in the second half. They barely had scored points right coming in. I don't really get it.
Yeah, it has to make you worry if you are laying with the chief heads right near one point eight points in the final fifteen minutes of action so far on the season they did. I think they put up I think they put up fourteen to the fourth court sort in the third quarter versus the Cowboys. But they're still only averaging five point six points in the third quarter. Yeah, so definitely definitely one of those. You know, check out the derivative odds for that one. Yeah.
I mean, for me right now, I kind of lean towards the Lions coming off the by I was a little surprised the Cowboys didn't just run NonStop. It's almost felt like they outthoughted themselves a little bit at the beginning where they went to the pass a little too much. I thought they could have just ran Zeke exactly exactly.
And they still they had with they ran the ball twenty one times, they had honored twenty one yards rushing almost that's what five point eight yards per carry.
Yeah, right, And you know, Matt Patricia really deep down wants to just kind of control the ball and run it and sort of have that even though they are explosive because Matt Stafford is not playing with a broken back anymore, so they do have the big playability. But I think, you know, you're you're you're gonna see a lot of Kerry On Johnson. And I think, you know, with it being four and a half, I love I loved it at six. I still like it at four
and a half. If if it keeps coming down, I'll be a little nervous.
Yeah, that Packer's pass rush is nasty though.
Yeah, yeah, they are there. They're nasty, they are, but they really are vulnerable on the ground. So I do think that, you know, with an extra week to prepare, they'll probably go after him that one. Well, that is going to do it. We did it, buddy, We made it through. Today's show was great having you on. Remind everyone where they can find more of you and your work.
Sure, well, I'm on covers dot com. Obviously she can't come there and find tons of stats and data and information. I had a pre editorial team. We have great content, video content, podcast content, great social content. You can find it all there. You can follow me on Twitter at covers j Lo. I also do a podcast as well too, which is the Cover's opening line, reports it down and kind of break down the biggest games of the week.
That's awesome. Well, it was great talking to you. I hope we can do it again this season.
Yeah, absolutely awesome.
Back on awesome man. Well, thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and use the promo code Harris to get your risk free first wager of up to five hundred dollars, and don't forget to rate and review the podcast and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com for your chance to an a signed Alvin Kamara helmet. We'll be back later this week giving you some of our best bets for Week six. I'll talk to you, that