Hey, everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It's time to talk about our week six best bets for the NFL season. Here's me to do that is Benny Richardi from FTN. Find him on Twitter at Benny R eleven. Benny, thanks for joining me. How you doing?
I'm doing good man. It's an interesting week coming up here. Some some good games to bet on, some other ones that I don't really know what I want to.
Do with, so I'm just kind of avoiding them.
But again, the good thing is the book's got to make a line for all of them. We just got to find one or two that we like.
I feel like this week is harder. I just I don't have a good enough sense for a lot of these games. Like I look at a lot of these games usually, you know, you we were just talking about how we do opening lines, right, you do you know a big video I do podcast, and how like I generally feel like there's usually I don't know, four or five, maybe six games I have kind of a strong reaction to it. This week, I didn't.
This week.
I was very much like ah, these are these are kind of sharp. You feel the same way.
Yeah, there's a lot of there's a lot of those games that have the hook on the on the other side, Like if it was three, I'd be like, oh, I'm definitely taking this, But like that hooks a big deal, man, when you got the three and a half's there or even some of them are at four, like the you know, like one of them I think we're gonna talk.
About in a little bit here with with Dallas.
Like those those are key numbers, and those numbers like they change a lot there, you know. I mean I I think that numbers are in that area are even more important than people are making a big deal. Oh Carolina was favored to start the week and now they're the other minus one to plus one.
That to me, that's the melting move.
Nothing move.
Yeah, Like it doesn't matter to me when that happens.
But you know, you go from from three to three and a half or three to four and a half like that one and a half one point right there, much bigger deal to me.
And we got a lot of those this week.
So absolutely, I'm hoping I'm not on the wrong side of a bunch of hooks on something that's basically what I'm.
Saying on here. We'll find out soon enough, as you guys know, with this one, we talk about each of our three best bets for the weekend, can be spread, can be total, can be moneylined if we want, and then we're going to quickly run through the remaining games before we get into a couple of housekeeping things again. This podcast, as you guys surely know by now, is brought to you by bet MGM, and I want to
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Was the review for the show Apple Podcasts or cast box and then go to Betting Pros dot com slash review if you are subscribed to our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros counts as three times the entries. All right, Benny, Before we get into it, I'm gonna run through how we did last week. Our guest Scott Bagman went one, one and one. He hit on the
Pats and Texans over thirty nine and a half. He missed on the Vikings laying nine and a half to the Lions, and then he pushed on the Packers, laying three to the Bengals, which I'm sure his heart was in his throat throughout that day. I had another positive day, third week in a row. Here I hit on the Eagles, getting three and a half from the Panthers, and the Jets and the Falcons over forty five and a half.
But the train on the Broncos under finally ended, and I missed on the under thirty nine and a half with the Broncos and the Steelers. But it's been a couple of good weeks here, seven and two over the last three, Benny, So if this goes downhill, I will be blaming you. But it's fine. We're gonna be using the lines. I'll check the lines of betting pros come but obviously it's all over the place with the various books, and I will point it out. Benny, you are the guest.
You get to get us started. What's your favorite bet here of the weekend?
So my favorite bet of the week is actually the Cincinnati Bengals on the road against Detroit in one of those games where the hook is on the other side from what I was talking about here. So I'm actually willing to lay the three and a half here with Cincinnati. Cincinnati has a top nine rated offense a top seven
rated defense. You know, when I originally looked at this line, I said, oh, this must be the line in case Joe Burrow doesn't play because they had to take him to the hospital after the last game, some kind of throat contrusion or something that happens. He did finish the game. He's been practicing all week. I just thought that the three and a half was just way, way too low of a number here.
You know, you look at this Detroit team.
Most people in their power rankings have Detroit and like the bottom four, the bottom five of the league. Now, there are four or five teams that are just absolutely horrible football teams that depending on which power ranking you use, on which site you're looking at, but it's the same five teams that are basically down there, with Detroit being one of them. Cincinnati right now is you know, you look at PFF, you look at some of the other rating systems out there, this is a top ten overall team.
Good on both sides of the football here.
One of the things that their defense is really good at is stopping to run. The only thing that Detroit can basically do right now is kind of run the football a little bit there with you know, the two good running backs that they have in Swift and Williams. So that's really the way that they want to play. And if Cincinnati's going to stop them, then they're not going to be able to do that. So they're going to have to go to the air when you look
at Detroit having to go to the air. It is Jared Goff throwing the ball to pretty much wide receivers like three, four and five on their list right now, because when you look down at the list, it's going to be like Khalif Raymond, probably like Amen ros Saint Brown. You know, those are the guys that are going to be in there. Tyrell Williams has been out with a concussion for a couple of weeks. They lost a Quintes
Siphas last week. Even TJ. Hockinson, who is probably the one guy you could really count on on that team, mispracticed yesterday. His status is up in the air for this weekend. You know, I'm looking at this here, and then you look at the other side of the ball too. Detroit has one of the worst pass coverage defense, is one of the worst pass coverage grades in the entire league.
And then you have a healthy T Higgins. Now you have arguably the rookie of the year out there, you know, catching touchdowns every week, and that Tyler Boyd as well. And it's like even cj Uzaman, who had a big week two weeks ago. There are just so many weapons here for Joe Burrow to play with against the defense that has absolutely no chance to stop the pass. So Cincinnati, I know they're on the road. I know they're laying
the hook. I know it's three and a half. I think the reason it's three and a half is because the books know if they left us at minus three, this game would get absolutely hammered by everybody, So they added the hook there to try to scare a few people away. But I'm a little smarter than the book, so I'm not gonna be scared by it. I'm gonna lay the three and a half.
Within I'm looking at the various lines that are available, and there is a three, oddly enough, sitting one three sitting out there at points. Bet it's just up it's minus one thirty here if you're gonna lay the three. But yeah, three and a half is there. I think I agree with you. I don't have a strong feeling about this, just because when I look at it, it does feel like even with the hook, with it being over three, the books want you to take the Bengals,
and the books expect you to take the Bengals. Like I imagine the public, the number of tickets that are going to come in. It's got to be heavily on the Bengals, right, Even after that loss, nobody wants to back the lines at this point and with a small spread, right, So it feels like my only worry with it is the fact that I feel like the books kind of
want you. Do you ever factor that in? By the way, do you ever look at a line and say, this almost feels like they're baiting me, they want me to do this, or do you just throw that out the window?
I do, but I look at it the other way.
As you know, if you see a line out there that's minus two and a half, to me, that's almost the books baiting me to take the minus two and a half, being like, oh, I'm going to get the three on it. When they bump it up to three and a half, I kind of look at it the
other way. It's like they bumped this up to three and a half to try to keep me from taking this line because they knew that if it was two and a half or three, people would be more likely to take it, and then they would get something that is, you know, completely one sided, which is obviously not what the books want to do, right.
You know, I think.
People because Detroit had a couple of those games where they lost by like, you know, less than a field goal. There, I think people are giving Detroit a little too much credit for being a good team. Like Detroit is not a good team. They're not good on offense, they're not good on defense, they're not really all that great on special teams. Not that that is a major factor in my numbers, but when I look at it, I just think that.
They're being a little bit overvalued right now. And that's what you really want to do.
You want to find the teams that books are overvaluing, and you want to bet against them, and you want to find the teams that they're undervaluing and kind of bet on them.
I still think since he's being undervalued, and I think Detroit's being overvalued.
So when you put those two things together here, I love this bet on the Bengals.
Yeah, so, I mean your point is correct. Obviously they're three and a half. That's sort of something that is saying, oh, you might not you know, in a vacuum, you would say, oh, you don't want to take the Bengals. It's over a field goal. Like look at this. I think for me, though, with the very very Joe Q Public out there betting, I just feel like looks at sort of be like the Lions suck their own five. I know they almost won that game, but they should have lost. They think
the Bengals are young and exciting. If it's anything remotely hanging around a field goal, I feel like Joe Q Public is going to want to take it. It's interesting. I don't that is the side that I would go and if I had to go on another side, but I'm going to stick in this game. Okay, this isn't technically my second bet whatever, but I'm sticking in this
game for another one of my bats. Actually, it's gonna be the under the forty seven and a half, and a lot of it is based on the points that you made, Benny, which is the Lion's offense is abysmal right now, like really really terrible. And don't forget the offensive line for them, at one point was a strength of this team and it is decimated, especially with ragnow out. That's a huge loss for them, right And you mentioned Hockinson. Yeah, my guess is he's gonna play because he's been playing
through this new thing a lot. But without the offensive line there to block or anything like that. It doesn't do it. You mentioned Cefest Brocus collar bone, he's going to be out. They don't have the pass catchers. They do have the running backs. We're pretty strong, but you mentioned it. That's kind of Cincinnati's strength here on defense seventh in defensive DVOA against the run. So it's really
hard for me to see the Lions. I mean, you got the coach, you know, Dan Campbell, talking about how you know, Jared gobb is struggling with like too many plays and stuff like that, like he he knows realistically, they're not going to put a point. So for me, it's all about whether or not Cincinnati completely explodes offensively in this game. And they could. I mean, obviously they have the three wide receivers back, Joe Mixon appears healthy though I know he was limited early in the league.
But obviously they should win this game for sure. But for me, the reason, part of the reason why I like the under both teams are really slow. I mean, Benny, like, the Lions are the sixth slowest neutral pass play pace of play in neutral situations, the Bengals are the second slowest. Like neither one of these teams, other than the fact that there's going to be like a seventy yard pass play to Jamar Chase and we just have to fake that in Neither one of these teams wants to hurry up,
let's go, let's go, let's go, let's run this. They want to milk the clock, they want to play it slow. So I do see the Bengals winning this game. I do think they win it by more than a field goal. So I'm on your side there if I have to go away. But I still I just don't see it being like this high, you know, powered game or anything like that. I think it's going to be a relatively
low scoring game. So at forty seven and a half, it's the only total on my list right now, it's the only I like, but it's my favorite total of the week. What do you think about that?
Yeah, well, I mean when you look at Detroit, they went seventeen seventeen, fourteen, seventeen in their last four games here. So basically what you're betting on right now is that the Cincinnati Bengals aren't gonna score thirty five points.
So I think Cincinnati's gonna win this game too. But thirty five is asking a lot for them.
If Detroit's defense could play well enough to keep since the other five touchdowns, I think you got it.
I think you got a winner there.
And I think the only thing that, like, the one thing that the Lions kind of do it from a defensive standpoint is they do get pressure, Like they're able to get pressure on the quarterback. And Burrow's taking some shots. You're right, he's gonna be fine with that throat contusion or whatever, but he's taken some shots the last couple of weeks. So I think with them getting pressure that is gonna at least throw them out of their rhythm
and probably affect them offensively. So it's something let's go for both of us winning this one, the Bengals winning you know, a nice tidy twenty to thirteen game. We'll both go home winners. Go to your second bet. What do you got?
Yeah, so the second one I'm looking at here. I'm actually gonna bet we're gonna go to a total in this one. I'm betting the over in the Kansas City Washington game. And I know it's a big number. Is it fifty five?
Right now? I mean, what are you looking at.
Let me take the consensus. It was fifty five and a half last time I saw it. I'll pull it up here, hold on, it is ooh, fifty there's it's some books are at fifty five and a half, but the consensus, the majority books fifty four and a half. So even better for you, right you're going out.
There, I'll take it.
I mean, here, here's the numbers so that you can you can see why I'm on this side. So far this year, Kansas City averaging thirty one points per game, giving up thirty two points per game, Washington averaging twenty four points per game, giving up thirty points per game.
So we're looking in.
That fifty five sixty five rage right there. If we just kind of, you know, go with those raw numbers and add them together and then you know, the thing that I don't think people understand is like everybody looks at Washington and they think of last year with the Washington Redskins, top.
Five defense, like you know, all that stuff. The offense is really bad.
But so far this year that's not really the way it's been. Other than the first game, which again was Ryan Fitzpatrick, not you know, Taylor Heineke, who's in there now. Heinike's actually been putting up points with this team, So you know, if this team is gonna score. And then the other thing is the defense hasn't been as good this year.
This year.
Again, I'm not saying they're like a bottom ten defense or anything like that, but they're a middle of the road defense. And you know what, the Kansas City Chiefs are gonna pick apart a middle of the road defense, a top five defense like they've played last week with the Buffalo Bills. Yeah, and even Buffalo top defense in the league, one of the top five defenses depending on whatever ratings you're looking at. They still hung up twenty points on Buffalo last week. They're gonna hang up thirty
here this week on Washington. And then the thing is, I think Washington can hang it up on them because right now, Kansas City is literally the worst defense in the league. So the only way that Kansas City could win games is getting into shootouts and basically Washington at this point, I'm not saying this offense is elite.
I'm not saying it's great. There are pieces missing.
Logan Thomas being out is obviously a big deal to this defense. Antonio Gibson's been a little banged up, not completely himself, and you can run on Kansas City, so that would be something that you want to hope that he's going to be in there, or at least whoever is in there at running back, whether it's j D Mciszick or somebody else further down the you know, the depth chart is going to be able to get some yardage here.
I just think there's gonna be points on both sides of this game.
And I have no problem playing overs with Kansas City because this is the exact kind of team that I want to play overs with. Their defense can't stop anybody, so anybody can put up points on them, and their offense literally doesn't need more than three plays to go eighty yards down the field and put up a touchdown. So I am hoping that this gets into one of those close, back and forth kind of games where Kansas City goes down I don't know, fourteen three or something,
storms back to make it seventeen to fourteen. Washington scores, then Kansas City scores, then Washington scores because Kansas City can't stop them, and then the next thing you know, we're up there in the sixties. And I mean just look at the scores for Kansas City's games this year. Sixty two was the total in the first game, seventy one in the second. The bad game they had was fifty four in the third game, and then it was
sixty two and fifty eight in the last game. So I mean, it's not like this is, you know, fifty five very high number, but the way Kansas.
City's playing, they're almost playing like a college football team.
So if you're gonna get those kind of points in their games, I'm still gonna be on the over here. I know a lot of the public is on the under So wait a little bit. If you can get it at fifty four and a half, I like that. If it drops even lower than that, that just means you got a bit bigger.
Yeah, I'm with you one hundred percent. Like I realized, like it's like, oh, the Chiefs defense is so abysmal that I can't even really put into words. And Washington's their offense. It's not explosive or anything like that. But at you know, as much as Antonio Gibson apparently has the stress fractor in his shin, he looked fine last
week he scored two touchdowns. Terry McLaurin, I realize now that he's pretty much the last guy standing because even Curtis Samuel again came back for ten minutes and then is out. That's fine, doesn't matter. They cannot stop wide receivers no matter what you do. Heineke's played better than expected. I think Jad McKissick is probably gonna have a decent game in here. So I agree with you, and the Chiefs have to win, and the only way the Chiefs can win their two and three is to outscore you.
So it is going to be monstrous amount of points. Yeah, it said fifty four and a half to me. I'm in New Hampshire. I have only access to DraftKings. It's fifty four and a half at DraftKings, which is great. I totally love it. Again, and you mentioned it Washington's defense man, like, where are we where all of the like? I expected them to be a complete strength coming into this year, complete strength and their defense right now that you can pick on. So I don't know where this
happened now. The one thing is Tyreek Kel has misspracticed. He misspracticed again today, so I want to make sure he plays. Of course, by assuming he does. Even if he doesn't, they'll i mean, pal Hartman will probably just step right in.
Right Iron Pringle get a touchdown there.
You know, one of the things about Washington's defense this year, they do still have a good pass rush. They have good I shouldn't even say they have a good pass they have good pass rushers, right, but the secondary is so bad that I mean, like, listen, these guys still need about three seconds to get to the quarterback. If they can't even guard, if they can't even stop anybody or cover anybody for three seconds, it's not going to make a difference.
And that's really what the you know, what the numbers have shown.
Right now is that their secondary is just so bad that they can't even stop anybody here.
So they're not even giving that line a chance. With all those pass rushers they have to kind of get home. And that's the thing.
You hope that your a good defensive line can help out your corners, but the corner's got to do a little bit of work too.
If it's like you know, teams.
Are just throwing all over you, I mean, really, there's nothing you can do about it. And again that's the big difference between not Washington defense this year and last year. Last year you weren't lighting them up through the air and those guys were getting home. This year, it feels like there's always receivers open, so quarterbacks don't have to hold on to it too long. They can get rid of it. If you're not getting home, they're gonna get picked apart. And that's what's been happening.
Yep, I'm in agreeing with you. I like the over here. Don't care that basically taking a Chiefs over sounds so like Chalky or whatever. I'll take it out they get they can't stop anybody. I think it's going to be a shootout again in a game that they absolutely have to win, and they win by putting up points. So I agree with you there. I'm really interested, Benny, to hear your opinion on my next pick, okay, because you
may hate it. I like it obviously because I'm picking it, but you may hit it, so let me get through it. Then after that, I want to hear this is the Browns laying three to the Cardinals. No, this was two and a half when it opens, so it's at three. That'snnoing, there's actually a three and a half out there as I'm looking right now at Fox Bet, but at three I'm going to take it. Kind of a combination here of me buying the Browns and selling the Cardinals. The
Browns are just a really, really impressive football team. Their run game is awesome. As we know, Baker Mayfield had that one terrible game against the Vikings, but overall he's played pretty well. Defense is very good, maybe not quote elite, but they are very very good. They're not that far away from being five to zero, including that game against the Chiefs. They lost against the Chargers in that heartbreaking fashion. And conversely, I'm just selling the Cardinals a little bit.
I mean, they were outplayed by the forty nine ers last week in like many notable categories. They could have lost that one. They should have lost that game to the Vikings that were behind against the Jaguars. I know it was a little fluky, but still they are due for a letdown game, and this game in particular, feel like it favors the Browns. Starting on Saturday in Cleveland, it's supposed to be horribly windy for like three straight days. It's supposed to be twenty to twenty five mile an
hour wins. What does that favor the run game, which is all Cleveland wants to do, so I think that's gonna be something good. The Cardinals have allowed five point four yards per carry on the year. Cardinals have a lot of injury concerns. They lost Max William obviously the tight end. Now they have a million pass catchers, but still that's something. Chandler Jones is likely out. He is on the COVID nineteen list. And they lost their center Rodney Hudson with the rib injuries. So they've got some
injuries that they're dealing with. Everything here screams the regression to the mean for the Cardinals to me. The Browns bouncing back from that tough loss again two and a half earlier in the week. I liked it. I didn't bet it. I should have. It's still at three right now. I see one three and a half out there, so I'm gonna lock it in before it gets there. I will take the Browns at home Lang three. Benny, your thoughts please.
Well, I mean you didn't even mention the fact that Kyler Murray's a little banged up as well.
That's true?
Yeah, absolutely right, Yes, it's a throwing shoulder, which is obviously gonna be a big deal for them. And I mean he's been amazing this year, you know, no knock on him whatsoever. He's been absolutely great for them so far this season. But he wasn't that great last game. And that's what you started seeing it there. You know, this team had been putting up a lot more points than they did in that last game.
And again, decent defense.
I'm not gonna say great defense, but a decent defense they played last week and all that. So you would expect a little bit less than you know, the stellar performances you put.
Up against some of the weaker teams in the league.
But yeah, I mean there are there are quite a few red flags here for the five and oh Arizona Cardinals, which again I don't think many people thought the Cardinals, including the Cardinals, who haven't done that in like thirty years, started off a season five and oh, I think I don't even know if they did it in like the Kurt Order days when they were in there, you know, at least in our lifetime when they were in their kind of heyday right here.
But you know, yeah, I don't mind it at all.
I mean, you know that Cleveland is gonna basically play hard nos football. They're gonna play good defense, They're gonna run the football down your throat as often as they can, and when they throw, it's gonna be play action off of those you know, off of those runs. So windy day doesn't affect them anywhere near as much as it effects a team like Arizona that would need to kind
of spread it out. So you got the weather on your side, you got the injuries on your side, you got Arizona having to travel to Cleveland for this game. You got Cleveland being a little upset at, you know, losing that game last week forty seven to forty two in a game that they played very well against arguably an even better defense than they're going to be facing here,
and they still hung up forty two points. So yep, I mean, this Cleveland team is another one kind of like the Bengals, where the offense is pretty good, the defense is very good, and people were still under rating them. Probably a better team than most people think when you look at the Cleveland Browns here.
So I don't hate it.
I like it extremely well coached. I really like what Stefanski's then obviously coach of the year last year, and yes, totally spaced for whatever reason, even though I had factored it in the Murray injury, which again he's gonna play fine, But I do think that that did you know, impact him last week against the fourty niners. He's a slight guy. We saw him injured obviously last year. That really affects his performance. So all the factors taken together, that might
be why the spread has moved up to three. I like it, but I am locking it in now before it moves. God passed again, Fox Bes already at three and a half. All right, last pick, Benny, what do you got? Yeah?
So I was hoping to get a little bit of a better number on this game. I'm not gonna lie to you, but I do think this is another situation where it's one team that the books are still overvaluing because of name brand recognition with the New England Patriots, and one team that the books are undervaluing with the Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas Cowboys being the only team that
is five and zero against the spread so far this year. Now, I will say this based on the way my numbers look and based on what I've seen the last couple of weeks from the books, I do think the books did actually make an adjustment to Dallas this week, So I was expecting to get Dallas closer to like one and a half two points. Right now I think it's three and a half some places. I've even seen it as four, you know, so it is kind of creeping up there. But that doesn't really matter to me, to
be honest with you. The Patriots defense is not the Patriots defense that was the one two or three years ago that every but he was scared of. That was like the super defense. And people keep pointing to oh, look they shut down the Jets.
I am a Jets fan. That is not hard to do. Yeah, it is not hard to do.
Like, if your best argument you could make to me it's, oh, well look what they did to the Jets, I'm gonna be like, yeah, so, like you know, my kids pop order team can shut down the Jets.
I'm not worried about that whatsoever.
You know, this defense, if you look at them right now, the Patriots are like middle of the pack, honestly, even in the lower half of the league, and a lot of categories that you look at overall and you look at Dallas's offense right now. You know, I know Pro Football Focus has them right that's the number one overall offense.
I know over at FTN, I think we have them as number two or number three.
Every single projection system that you look at right now has this Dallas offense.
As being near elite.
And then just look at what they've done in the last couple of games, forty one points, thirty six points, forty four points in the last three games. They're putting up thirty four points on the season. Now, do I think they get anywhere near thirty four against the Patriots? No, the Patriots are gonna have a good game plan. The Patriots defense, I'm not saying they suck. I'm just saying they're not the.
Elite level defense that people used to look at them.
Ass They traded away Steven Gilmour, who is a major piece of that team, and people don't realize when you have a guy who could be a one on one island shutdown corner, it allows your defense, especially a smart guy like Belichick, to do a lot of other things because you could just stick him out there and say, all right, your job this game is to take away Amari Cooper, and you know that that's going to happen, and then you're playing ten on ten with everybody else
trying to figure out how to stop teams. When you lose that guy, that's a big deal. Now you have to make up for that fact because now you can't just say we're taking away that side of the field and you know, playing ten on ten on the other side. Now they actually have to go out there and you know, be an eleven man unit that actually goes and shuts teams down, and so far this year they haven't been
able to do it. And then the other reason why I like it, I think Dallas's defense is a little better than people give them credit for, and I think the Patriots offense is even worse. Patriots right now basically only averaging nineteen points on that side of the ball. So if Dallas can get to like twenty four, they this number. I don't think they get to the thirty four they've been averaging, but I think think it gets
twenty four. And if you can score twenty points against the Patriots, you're gonna win because this team just can't score.
So I'm not going against you, but I'm not jumping on the train. I don't know what it is, Benny, So this is like not this is not great now. I'm gonna throw it out there. It's not great now for me. I don't know what it is, and it might just be my history. Of course, we're both Jets fans. I live in New England, of understanding this spot for Bill Belichick. Now, obviously you want to talk about the defense.
I mean, Davis Mills just totally lit you up right, like that's not an offense that you're necessarily crad of. Dallas has been home for three games, right, three straight games. Now you're coming on the road. That's a spot generally historically, doesn't you know, bode well for teams, at least as against the spread. For sure. Mac Jones is not a great quarterback or anything like that. He's been okay. He really struggles with pressure. That's the one thing Dallas doesn't
really get. They don't get a tone of pressure on the quarterback. So I think I think their offense, the Patriots can have some success here in this game. The big question is whether or not their defense can shut down what is basically an elite offense with Dallas and I'm not sure that they can. I don't think they could sew him down. I mean, even you admit you don't expect this to be the you know, thirty eight points or anything from the cap rights, like, you don't
expect this to be crazy at all. I just don't have it. Again, I kind of felt like this different obviously, and there were weather against the Bucks, but it strikes me a little bit against the Bucks where I was like, I don't see how you're gonna put up any points. I don't see how your defense is going to possibly hold them in check. There was no way. I felt good about the Patriots in that game, and they came
out and they played extremely, extremely well. It strikes me as it's going to be one of those games and it's going to be a close game. But again, this is not great analysis bending because I don't I just don't have it like here. It's just something that makes me uncomfortable.
I've actually had this same discussion already once today with my producer when we were talking about it on the show earlier yeap, and basically what I said to him is the Tampa Bay game literally required an act of God. The weather was horrible in that game. It required an act of God to slow them down. But on the other side of it, you were right. They still only scored seventeen points. This is a seventeen to twenty four
point a game offense. That's the best you're going to get out of this new England team.
There's no explosive wide receivers. You know.
Again, they lost Damien Harris, not that he was I don't think that that's a big deal. I think Rimandre Stevenson can give you basically approximate what you got out of out of Damian Harris. I think the bigger deal was them losing James White a couple weeks ago because Bolden being in there now and taking that role.
And I like Bolden.
I think he's a solid guy that could be on the roster, but he's not the same upside that James White was, so that only hurts their offense even more right there. Like I said, my biggest problem here is I don't think the Patriots can put up more than twenty and I don't think the Patriots defense, which is not as elite as they used to be, can keep this elite because Dallas's offense is elite can keep this
elite Dallas offense under twenty. So I'm hoping I get a twenty four, seventeen, even twenty four to twenty.
If you can get it out the three and a half, right, it would work for me too.
Yeah, it's a three and a half everywhere pretty much again, except for me. It's at three at DraftKings. Maybe a little bit better. It's the little Patriots love there, I guess. But yeah, I think really the issue for me with the Cowboys is not their offense whatsoever. It is I don't have as much faith in their defense. I mean, Treyvon Diggs is great. Of course, they don't get a ton of pressure. They've been built so much on this
insane turnover rate that they have. But again, this is not the offense that can exploit that with the Cowboys, right because they're just not explosive. So I feel you. I really don't hate it. It's something though I can't do it personally because again, I'm just scared. I'm a scared man, and I don't mind that. I don't bet games i'm afraid of, but I will bet a disgusting game right now that we alluded to earlier it's a line that has crossed zero, but doesn't really matter to me.
It's whatever side you want to be on, is the side you're on. I'm going to take the Vikings laying a point in a half right now to the Panthers. Again, you mentioned it. I think it opened at the Panthers laying a point or maybe laying a point to half at some point. It's not cross but again, you and I talked about it. That is a far less significant move than going from two and a half to three and a half or three to three and a half,
anything like that. I have a bit of an irrational love for the Vikings and they have done nothing to justify it whatsoever. I've only actually taken them on the show once, it was against the Cardinals, and they did cover, even though they wound up losing that game. This is much more, though, of a fade of the Panthers. Things look a lot different for the Panthers right now when they're not facing the Jets or the Texans. And Benny, you are a Jets fan. I am a Jets fan.
As we just said, we have watched mister Sam Darnold, and I don't I'm glad Sam Darnold is out of the Adam Gase threshold right now and able to have some modicum of success. But one thing that I don't really think was a product of Adam Gase was how Sam Darnold looked under pressure. I think that he is not a great quarterback under pressure. We have seen it in his career. We have seen it now with the Panthers, and we certainly saw it last week against the Eagles.
They pressured him forty three percent of the time. And the stats from Sunday against the Eagles when he got rid of the ball under two and a half seconds, he was eleven for eleven for seventy nine yards and a touchdown. When he had it held on to the ball for longer than two and a half seconds five to seventeen with two interceptions. So Donald generally holds the ball too long. That's kind of what he does two
point eight seconds on average. And again, the games that he has won is against the Jets, against the Saints that you know, we don't really know what the Saints are yet, and against the text and now the Vikings do have holes on their defense, but they get pressure second in the NFL in pressure rate, Zimmer is a good defensive coach. They might have CMC back here. I guess they're supposed to. But again, yesterday Matt rules that
he was fifty to fifty. Who knows that will help Darnald, But still I think we are basically starting to, you know, look like what he's going to look like against a legitimate defense. The Vikings have a good offense, they just don't score a ton or anything like that. And Cousins the Carolina gets a lot of pressure too, but Cousins is much better under pressure. So I think this is a close game. But I think the Vikings figure this
one out. I think the Panthers are having the balloon burst a little bit with them, So I'm going to take the Vikings laying a point a half to the Panthers.
Yeah.
One of the things I like to do every week is look at teams that are underperforming and or overperforming what they should be. And the Vikings are one of those teams that you look at their you know, you look at their grades by position, you look at the guys on that offense, you look at even the defense, which is supposed to be much improved from last year, although it hasn't really looked much improved yet this year. But that was the consensus coming into the season that
they were going to be much better here. So they have played just nowhere near up to expectations this far. Now, again, if you're somebody who believes in variants, maybe they just had a couple of those down games, played a couple better opponents the first couple of weeks, a couple of the teams they played, our teams that are showing up better than a lot of people thought they would. So to start out two and three not the worst thing in the world. And then you look in the other
side with Carolina, and you mentioned it. You know, Carolina is three and on the season, but who have they really beat? You know, that Saints game made everybody excited in the second week because the Saints went.
Out in Week one and beat Green Bay.
But if Green Bay and New Orleans played again tomorrow, I don't think anybody in the world would think that New Orleans should be favored in that game. Right now, they just happened to run into a buzzsaw. Aaron Rodgers had to touch the football in like four months. He was still playing jeopardy and figuring out the answers and all that stuff. So, I mean, I think people overrated the Saints, which made them overrate Carolina for beating up on the Saints. You know, I mean, I agree with
everything that you're saying here. Listen, the market moved for a reason, right The market opened that way. The money came in heavy, and that's why it moved from Carolina being favored to Carolina being the underdog.
You know, whether or not it moved enough, it doesn't really matter. When you're talking.
About one point yere one and a half points there, anything under a field goal.
You still just picked the team that you like. On either side there.
I would have liked you have taken Minnesota if you really liked them on Sunday Monday when it was still like plus one ten or you know, something like that.
But even now, I have no problem laying a one and a half on that side.
I just think even though they haven't showed it yet, I just think they're the better football team overall.
Yeah, and their defense to right, coming into the year, people were kind of excited about them that they had a lot of new faces, but the secondary hasn't played as well as kind of we expected. Them to play necessarily. But I do think they are a better team than what they have showed right now, and their record could be better. Obviously, they just you know, they almost won against the Cardinals. They probably should have won that game. So it is something where I think they're a little
bit of a better team. And again it's largely a fade at the Panthers at this point. Who again we as you mentioned it, their strength of the you know, opponents who they have beaten is not impressive. All right, So let's recap very quickly. You were taking the Chiefs and the Washington football team. I'm going to give you fifty four and a half. That's like this line over fifty four and a half, the Bengals laying three and a half to the Lions, and the Cowboys laying three
and a half to the Pats. I am taking the Browns laying three to the Cardinals, the Bengals and the Lions under forty seven and a half, and the Vikings now laying one and a half to the Panthers. You're ready to run through very quickly all the remaining spreads.
Let's do it.
Let's do it. London game, really exciting one here, the Dolphins laying three to the Jaguars.
What do you think I'm gonna go?
My number is actually a little below three, but it's still Miami being favored. I think it's like two and a half or so, So I'll take the Miami side of that game.
I just don't want to be on the Jacksonville side.
That's the correct answer, which is probably like Jacksonville like there, maybe there's some value on Jacksonville, but you just can't do it right, there's under no sus right, you just can't do it. I completely agree with you. Chargers are visiting the Ravens. I think this was the Ravens saying three when I looked early in the week. But right
now it's down to two and a half. There is still three out there at FanDuel at points bet, but the consensus line Ravens laying two and a half to the Chargers in Baltimore.
Yeah, my number was actually Baltimore minus four, So if I could get it at the two and a half now, I would definitely be on the Baltimore side of it. Again, to me, that one and a half points right there is worth a lot more more than the one or two points that we saw the move in the other game, so I thought it should be Baltimore minus four.
I think it's gonna be a great game.
Like I wouldn't be shocked if the Chargers wound up winning this, But Baltimore seems to be able. They win ugly, but they win, right and at the end of the day, you are what your record says you are. And you know they got a good record because they come through and they win those close games.
So I think Baltimore wins a close one at two and a half. I would be on the Baltimore side. I think they cover.
Yeah, I liked the Chargers getting the three. I don't like them under the field goal.
I don't know.
I'm a little concerned because I don't know what we're gonna see here from the Ravens off that game, right, that is an emotionally draining game. That's you know, they're on a short week, so I just I'm a little concerned with what we're gonna see. I'm just I'm gonna stay away. I'm just gonna watch it completely. But if it was three, I kind of like the Chargers because I'm really god, I love I love the coaching staff, I love the way the team is playing, so I
do love them. The Colts are laying ten to the Texans right here at home?
What do you think too many? For me? I thought it should be eight.
So again, I'm not games like this, like I don't want to. I'm not actually betting the Houston signe. Like I said at the beginning show, we don't have to bet every game. But if we're playing in a pool here and you got to pick a side, I think ten is too many points.
I think the Colts are gonna win. I just think it's too many points.
I agree, I'm not betting it. I agree with you, but ten points, really, I mean, given the fact like how exhausted they are, how much their spirit was broken on Monday, how decimated their secondary is, the Texans are a little better than people have kind of given them credit for, like throughout the season, ten is too many. At the same time, I'm with you, Like if I'm in a pool and I have to bet it, I'm going with the Colts. I mean, I do not have to.
Bet Colt survivor pick by all means, if you got survivor, I got no problem with it. But I don't want to lay ten with them. Yeah.
How about the Packers visiting the Bears. The Packers are laying five right now. There's four and a half five, five and a half actually out there at Fox Bet, but five is the consensus. What do you think?
How are the Chicago Bears three and two? I have no idea how the sea was three and two.
The offense is horrible, the deep is not as good as they have no idea how they've.
Got the three and two. I thought this numbers should have been bigger.
I think this is gonna be like if you're in one of those you know, like circa millions or something like that.
I think this is gonna be the.
Most picked game of the week. I think everybody's on the green Bay side. I know we are as well. That was one of our circle picks. So I'm going with green Bay in this one.
No problem with that.
How about the Rams visiting the Giants. They're laying consensus is nine and a half. It bounces back and forth between nine a half and ten. We obviously have, you know, eighteen thousand question marks right now about the Giants. We don't even know if Daniel Jones is going to be up for this game, So I don't know if you can even touch it right now, but what do you think?
Yeah, I mean, for the fact that there's all those question marks and I actually thought it should be double digits. Anyway, I would be on the Rams side of this, but again it's it's not a game i'm betting on. Again, laying ten points is a lot of points. People don't realize that's a lot of points. But I do think the Rams could cover because the Giants right now, assuming that even half of these guys are out.
They're gonna be playing with like a skeleton squad. Kadarius I hear Kadarius Tony might be playing.
Quarterback this week, which since I heard that, I was like, all right, I'll lay the ten in that game.
I mean, and they might be better. Who knows I have. I can only get it at ten here drafting, so I wouldn't get it, but I would take it at nine and a half because again, the Rams are off the mini by they shouldn't look to make a statement here, and the Giants are just in disarray at this point, regardless of who plays. You mentioned the total in this one. How about the side the Chiefs are visiting Washington and they're laying six and a half.
Yeah.
I the Chiefs are like one in four against the spread this year, and it's because the defense is so bad that you know, you always feel like the other team is going to score. At the end of the game, you feel like the Chiefs are going to score too, and it really comes down to who has it last. But if you're forcing me to take a side here, I'll take Kansas City, but I'm not betting it. I don't feel comfortable with it.
What worries me a little about this game, Benny, is that this is a please tease this game down to half a point, which makes me a little worried about what we're going to see here in this game, right that this like this has got to be one of the legs and everybody's two teams teas there this week.
It is.
It's gonna be in mind too. I don't care if the trap doesn't matter to be, it's got to be, which makes me just a little concerned about it. So it's a stay away from me again. You mentioned the Chiefs just they I mean, they haven't been winning obviously, but they never cover if forced to take a side, I agree like it should be the Chiefs in this
game under a touchdown, but man, this is day. I just that number makes me very, very nervous because it seems like they're like, we know what's gonna happen and we're okay with it.
Yeah, last year they were this way and so far to start this year it's been the same way as they win a lot, well not this year, but last year they won a lot, but they.
Didn't cover a lot. This year they're not winning or covering, which always makes me nervous.
But at the same point in time, like if you're asking me, that's the side I want to take, you know, if I had to, But man, it just it hasn't worked out well. The variants has to swing at some point, right, Like, Yeah, it's too good for it not to be.
You and I take the over. We'll tease it down, We'll be fine. Raiders are visiting the Broncos. Broncos here are length three and a half. I have no idea what happens with the Gruden stuff, Like, I don't know what the impact is of it on this team, So what do you think?
Yeah, I try to go by that. I try not to use narratives here.
Maybe they come out with their hair on fire and you want to prove to everybody that they're gonna be better without John Gruden or something. But just based right on the numbers, Denver's the side I want to be on. I would have liked it at minus three, but I would even lay the three and a half there because that's the side I feel more confident.
Again, this is one of them that I'm just I felt like a lot of the lines are tight right now and it's not one that I want to go after. If I do pick a side, it would be Denver. Who I will I will generally if there's a tiebreaker, if I'm unsure, if I have to bet it, I will always lean the Broncos at home, particularly early in the season. But still it's a good line. It's the right line and something that I'm staying away from. Forced
to choose, I would take the Broncos. This is one where I wish it was a little lower because it might have been one of my picks. But the consensus Ligne right now is the Steelers are laying five and a half to the Russell Wilson less Seahawks on Sunday, night, Well in Pittsburgh five and a half, what do you think?
Yeah, so the problem with this game this week is you have to figure out how many points Russell Wilson is worth to the Seahawks side. My number came out to just shy of seven. I think it was like six and three quarters or something like that. So I think that this game should actually be Pittsburgh closer to six and a half. So minus five, I'd still be willing to take it there because you got to also factor in that all these other weapons are going to
be decreased without oh Wilson. Oh, so you know, it hurts DK, it hurts Tyler, it hurts everybody on that entire team right now. And again another former Jet quarterback, Gino Smith going out there.
So you and I love it, Yeah, I mean we've seen him enough. That's the thing that he played very very well in relief last week, like surprisingly well. I was very impressed. But it is a much much different story when you pop in in relief in a game by the way that you're down and it's a negative game script anyway, but when nobody has prepared for you whatsoever, and then you pop off a couple of good throws
and everything like that. That's a much different story than when you give a team a week to say, Okay, you know Smith as the starting quarterback, let's plan our defensive game plan around this. I agree with you. This is the spot you hate back in the Steelers in right, you hate back in the Steelers when they are home favorites. You want to back them in their road underdogs, and Tomlin can get them all coached up. But still I completely agree with you, Like there's no way. And again,
they look better last weekend. Like I was surprised with how cohesive their offense looked, especially the run game. And you know, their offensive line looked better. Whether it looked like more of a change in the scheme than it was suddenly them improving and everything like that, but the offense did look better. The defense is still solid. With Gino going, I think it really hurts Tyler Lockett for sure. I agree with you. I will take the Steelers, even
though it's five and a half. It's a little nerve wracking, but I will take them. Last game here Monday Night football, the Bills are visiting the Titans. Titans are getting five and a half points. What about this one.
I mean, I have Buffalo as the number one team right now in my power rankings.
This opened lower than this.
This opened that like three and a half, four and a half on a lot of sites somewhere in that range. So my number was five and a half, which is what it has come up to right now. So again, if I didn't have to bet, I wouldn't be on it. But I will stick with the Buffalo side. Like I said, number one team in my power rankings right now. The defense is just elite and the offense is good enough to put up The offense is good enough to put up.
A lot of points.
You got an elite defense and an offense I could put up a lot of points. You're gonna win a hell of a lot of football games.
I don't know why I'm taking. I'm not betting on it again. I've told you only though what I bet. But I think I take the Titans. First of all, I expect Julio Jones to play in this one. I think this is the game he comes back and you returned to practice yesterday. I don't know about today yet, but obviously it wasn't placed on my r. This is Game three. They're at home. It's a big spot. I could see a little bit of a letdown here for the Bills after coming off that giant win. But it's
a tough game and it's five and a half. It's like a dead number. What do you want to do with it? But I think I'll just take the points here with the Titans. It forced too if I were in a pool, which I'm not. Benny, I really enjoyed talking to you. I'm glad you came on the show. Remind everybody you do fantastic work. Remind everybody where they can check it out.
Uh yeah, you could always follow me over on Twitter at Benny R eleven. You can catch me there or anything going on at the FTN network. My fingerprints are on it, either in front of or behind the scenes one or the other day.
All right, we'll keep crashing it over there in the meantime, enjoy your football this week, and everybody, we'll be back as always on Monday talking about our early reaction to the Week seven NFL lines. I will talk to you then,