NFL Week 5 Picks & Best Bets + Against the Spread Selections (Ep. 352) - podcast episode cover

NFL Week 5 Picks & Best Bets + Against the Spread Selections (Ep. 352)

Oct 06, 202330 minEp. 352
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Episode description

Join Joe Pisapia, Andrew Erickson, and Samantha Previte (@SamanthaNFL) of The 33rd Team as they provide a comprehensive breakdown of the various types of bets you can make for Week 5 of the NFL season. Discover the bets most likely to cash as these experts share their insights and strategies to help you make informed decisions.


Timestamps:

Introduction - 0:00:00

Cardinals 1H ML (+120 DK) - 0:03:15

Saints vs. Patriots U39.5 - 0:05:45

BettingPros NFL Contest - 0:09:24

Ravens -4 - 0:10:23

Lions TT O27.5 (-115 Bet365) - 0:12:36

Discord - 0:14:43

Falcons -1.5 - 0:15:23

Texans TT O20.5 (+105 BetMGM) - 0:18:25

BettingPros App - 0:20:31

Bills vs. Jaguars U48.5 - 0:21:27

Steelers TT U16.5 (+102 DK) - 0:24:12

Colts ML +120 - 0:26:40


Helpful Links:

BettingPros NFL Pick'Em Contest - The NFL season is here, and what better way to get in on the action than place bets on your favorite sport? Join our BettingPros group contest at bettingpros.com/nflcontest to see how you stack up when it comes to betting on the NFL. Users will make picks through the season, and those who stand out will win prizes!

BettingPros App - Make winning bets with advice and picks from top sports betting experts. The BettingPros app puts consensus and expert-driven sports betting advice at your fingertips to help you pinpoint the best odds and make winning bets. Download it today on the App Store or Google Play.

Discord - Join us in the BettingPros channel on our Discord at fantasypros.com/chat during Thursday Night Football to hear our LIVE betting advice and to get your questions answered.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place your bet so it's be Joey Pa joe Pizzapia, and it's week five. It's time to take a look at the best lines, the best spreads, and of course all of the betting you could possibly handle. And to help me do it, of course, is Andrew Erickson, mister prop prophet himself, who has got a wedding to go to this weekend. Don't worry, it's not his. That's next year. I'll be waiting for my invitation. Iris and I didn't

get to save the date yet. I don't know what that's all about, but we'll see what happens. And of course, one of my good pals who's back. I haven't gotten to talk to you in a little while, so we had to have her back on the show, Samantha Pravidi. You could find her work over at the thirty third team right now. You can follow her on X. It's getting It's taking me a while, but I'm starting to say X instead of Twitter. I still don't like it.

You can follow her at Samantha NFL. Samantha, welcome back. I know in your spare time You're doing so many things, including the snowboard instructing, which is fascinating to me because I'm just a dumb old city boy. So for those of us who have never been skiing, never been snowboarding, what is rule number one? Now, that's the thing that

I need to know. Like, if I go to do that, what is the thing that I should pay attention to the most before I get out there on the slopes and possibly hurt myself?

Speaker 2

Take a ski lesson that would be the most important. See your snowboard lesson really really important. It's hard to learn well without any kind of instruction, and you know, it's good to build that foundation and take away some of the anxiety. But one really big tip if you come up to the mountains up here as we are at ninety six hundred feet, similar thing is if you know you're playing the Rockies or playing the Broncos, big big adjustments to altitude, so have to hydrate a ton hydration.

Speaker 1

And if I end up having to be in the little you know kids group, you know French frying and pizzaing like they do on South Park, I'll try to figure that out. Ericson you were telling me before the show that the wedding you're attending this weekend is near Jillette Stadium. While you're there hanging out in that general area, do you want to look for the Patriots offense you can find it or maybe a cornerback They might be able to use you this weekend.

Speaker 3

Well, they're going to use jac Jackson to I talked to my author about two weeks. I was like, Dad, Jase jack is gonna be on the Patriots in two weeks or so. H Like, he gave it two weeks and again, one thing led to another. He got benched by the Chargers, and what do you know? The Patriots get one of their cornerbacks that they draft, they turn to a productive starter, and then he gets overpaid in free agency by another team and then what do you know, he's back on the Patriots.

Speaker 1

Yeah, he was a healthy scratch last time for the Chargers, a team that can't stop anybody in the secondary. Healthy scratch. But you know who will go back and it'll be productive because it's the system and you just ask him to do one thing. That's all he needs to do. But we got a lot of things to do. We're gonna give you our favorite weekly side bets the totals. We're gonna go through all that before we do, don't forget. Make sure you drop a comment below and subscribe to

the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Even if you're listening on the podcast end, run over to your YouTube app and go subscribe, because when you do, you might have a chance to win this Odell Beckham autograph jersey thanks to us of our Betting Pros. Again, subscribe, drop a comment below, and don't forget to click that little bell to lit Go's ding for notification, so you know if you are the big winner of the Odell Beckham jersey.

Speaker 3

End.

Speaker 1

Every single time a piece of content drops here on the channel, you'll be aware. We got live streams going on, we got the college football It is hot right nowt Me tell you they do some great work. Samantha, you're our guest. Let's kick off week five. Give me number one on your list of things we want to bet for this week in the NFL.

Speaker 2

Sure, so I happen to like the Cardinals' first half money line that is plus one twenty. You can get that at DraftKings. They are playing the lowly Bengals. So the shortback story here is that I actually took Bengals Titans first half under last week. Obviously that didn't go super well for me. And the absolute knife twist to this whole story is that it ended on a Derrick Henry passing touchdown, like just absolute pain cool to watch

but painful. But you know, I got to say that the Bengals did their part of it and that they only scored three points in the whole game. But yeah, so this time I am taking the Cardinals to lead going into half halftime. As a mnemic as the Bengals have been this year, they've been actually a lot worse early in the game since He's not led once going into the half. They are bottom three and first half points this year, averaging just four point eight all season,

ahead of only the Falcons and Giants. They're scoring fifty six percent more points in the second half, which is actually not that much, but there are half to half differential is negative thirty four points. So on the flip side, we've got the Cardinals, who are actually one of the better first half teams and one of the worst second

half teams. They're averaging about eleven more points per half than the Bengals and have a twenty positive twenty four point differential, and then like even just like first half aside, we just watching the Bengals has been really, really painful. Joe Burrow just visibly hampered by this calf thing. And then we've got T Higgins who may or may not play. If he plays, he has a broken rib, which you know I wouldn't want to be playing with either. Joe Burrow.

Last year he had the second highest completion rate in the NFL, and this year he's at fifty seven point six, so definitely needs to something is not working for him. So I am definitely concerned about him overall. But I think like the best bet in this game for me is to take the Cardinals first half of my line.

Speaker 1

Yeah plus T one twenty. You're getting that right now over on DK. And I gotta be honest with a Sunday night, when I was putting the early look Ahead show together, the original number was five and a half on Arizona, and I jumped on that because the next morning we got up to do the show, that look Ahead show that we drop every Monday, and it was three and I was like, wow, that didn't take very long for people to really marinate on how bad the

Bengals look, and it's been a tough, tough sled. My concern here too, going forward is what happens if they lose here, If they lose the Arizona Cardinals. I imagine Joe Burrow goes in the ir and he just tries to get healthy and they try to figure it out. But it's all about that long term investment. They're paying him a lot of money. Andrew Rickson, I'm paying you a lot of money. So tell me something, tell me something good right now. Give me a pick for Week five? What do you got?

Speaker 3

Patriots Saints under forty and a half, the stone cold lock of the week. Baby, Like these offices can get out of their own way. So and we're just looking at what they've done so far this year. Patriots four and oh towards the under, Saints four and oh towards the under. The Saints are thirty second in red scoring red zone scoring rate. They can't score points. And everyone looked at Derek Carr as this massive upgrade coming in. He's gonna be a better than Andy Dalton. No, not

in the case whatsoever. I backed the Saints last because I thought Winston was gonna play. He didn't play, and what do you know, the Saints lost because I started Derek Carr so.

Speaker 1

Well for me, a car with half an alarm. I mean, let's be honest, he wasn't the.

Speaker 3

One he playing the game because he's afraid to lose his job because he's not good. That's why I can't back the Patriots here, just because I don't know have any confience in their offense either. But for me it's I like the defenses, I like the under, and if I had to pick a side, I would pick the Patriots because they were playing at home, but I don't feel confident enough to put it as my best bet,

so I would just go to the under here. And I've been better as I've been tracking my bets so far this year with the betting primer, I'm up positively on totals. Like that's where I've been better than picking side, So trying to embrace that a little bit more, so, I'm gonna start with the with the under here.

Speaker 1

I actually tease the New Orleans Saints to three over on FanDuel and took that instead because with all the corners being heard, I just think there's going to be a terrible situation for the page. And Matthew Judonnell too, Like, you can't lose that many guys on defense, Christian Gonzalez, everyone named Jones. I mean, it's just crazy right now, what they're got going on there. It's just unbelievable. Everyone but Mac Jones. It's the only Jones is actually playing.

They got three guys that are hurt. One might be coming back, but it's a bad scene right now, depending on Derek Carr's health. Like, I just think the Saints are going to go in there and win this football game. All right, back to you, Samantha, Let's get another one of your favorite bets for Week five. What do you have?

Speaker 2

Well, this one's slam because I'm just gonna go off of what Andrew said. That was one of my best bets as well. I mean, both offenses are like the definition of mid. Actually mid might be a compliment so at this point, but bottom six and points scored for both teams and bottom and below average and controlling time of possession. Both defenses are obviously pretty good. Though you did mention that there are multiple injuries to the Patriots side, but all of the Saints games this year have been

pretty low scoring. In fact, every one of them would have hit their respective unders. We talked about Derek Carr dealing with this ac joint injury which absolutely killed Chris o'lave last week, very very painful to get point nine fantasy points. But even when Carr was healthy, I mean, the Saints games, like I said, have just been pretty

low scoring. They did get a little bit of spark with Alvin Kamara coming back last week, which was nice, But on the Patriots side, it has been a troubling trend, going from twenty points in the first week seventeen five and fifteen and three, so definitely not trending in the right direction. They did play some tough defenses the Cowboys and Jets, but the scenes have been pretty good themselves, So you know, I've been concerned about this offense. They

haven't been really great at establishing the run. Their best pass catcher from a production standpoint is tight end Hunter Henry and their quarterbacks by back Jones, so I've never really been a huge believer in him. He could definitely be on the run a lot to the Steelers running top seven in sacks per game, So I am all about the under forty.

Speaker 1

Points, depressing Sunday for the Patriots. I can tell you right now. Alvin Kamara, the big beneficiary too, was just looking to see because I thought he had fourteen targets that he did last like fourteen targets from Derek Carr who couldn't probably throw the ball more than ten yards. He was a warrior last week Ericson. That's what he was. You're dogging him fighting for his job. He's a leader, that's what he's doing. Anyway, we'll get to the individuals

tomorrow and the prop show. That'll be a good time. Chris MEETI is gonna join us, Chris Robin's gonna join It's gonna be a great show. Before we get to the next pick here that we have. Don't forget everybody. When you download that Betting pros app, make sure you go to the community tab and make sure you join the NFL contest we've got going on, because the grand prize winner is gonna get a Jackson Smith and Jigba Jersey. All you have to do is make five picks a week.

But if you're saying, oh Joe, it's already October, I missed out, doesn't matter. We're still doing weekly prizes, monthly prizes. You just have to make one hundred picks through the year, five picks a week. That's it. That's all you gotta do. Go to bettingpros dot com slash NFL contest or go to the community tab on the app. That's all you have to do and just join the NFL Contest again. We're giving away swag to our Betting Pro Shop, our

Fantasy Pro Shop. We're giving away upgrades Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros to the premium as well, So get on that and don't forget also that you've got something special going on too for Io Wes. If you haven't downloaded the Betting Pros app, do it this weekend because you get three free days of premium to check out that which is outstanding all the best betting tools on the planet. Andrew Ericksson, let's go back to you for another week. Two pick.

Speaker 3

What do you have for the people going with the Ravens minus four playing in Pittsburgh. I understand the line because they got to give respect to the Steelers defense Mike Tomlin, but come on, like the offense for the Pittsburgh Steelers is so bad it is horrible up and down. You have Kenny Pickett, who's coming off an injury, who's going to play in this game. But he's not the only guy that's hurt. Pat Fayrenmouth is not going to play. They're starting left tackle Dan Moore is not gonna play.

Their starting guard James Daniels is also dealing with an injury, so they're gonna have their rookie left tackles start this game. And I'm having a banged up quarterback already. I get that the defense for Baltimore's not elite because the've also been banged up, but they've also played very well despite missing a lot of their ty guys. The Ravens take care of business against bad offenses and incompetent play callers. That's what the Steelers are bringing to the table here

in this game. So again, this isn't a matchup where the Ravens are gonna overlook the Steelers. They know the Steelers are one of their biggest rivals, but they're clearly the better team here, and the fact that it's only four points, I'm taking it like I just think Baltimore is hands down the better team. They beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh last year with Tyler Huntley by a field goal.

I know Trubisky started that game, but the Steelers offense, I don't know how they're gonna score, Like unless TJ. Watt gets a pick like forces a strip fumble that is a scoring for a touchdown, Like, how do the Steelers actually score points? I think the Ravens know that. The Ravens know that they can be conservative. They can run the football with Gus Edwards against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL and play keep away and just win the game. So I like the Ravens here.

I think they get to win just because the Steelers are the walking wounded right now. Now we're getting close to Halloween. But yeah, the Steelers are just not in a good place.

Speaker 1

I just noticed on x that Matt canada Is Burner account just followed you. So it's going to be a busy weekend for you, just telling you.

Speaker 3

Well, this is going to be the last game at Canon. Maybe coaching for the Pittsburgh has.

Speaker 1

Got a lot more time to tweet or x or whatever the hell he's gonna do. But I agree with you, it's been bad. You know, we always like to give the Tomlin team's respect, and we always like to give them some sort of preference or treatment because they're always ppared, they're aways well coached, and we did that in week one and we got our doors blown off on it because of how good the forty Niners were and how ill prepared the Pittsburgh Steelers were. And it hasn't gotten better,

it really hasn't. It's just been one thing after another. So Mike Tomlin said there's changes coming. We'll see. Maybe there'll be some changes after this. Once a, Maantha Pravidio, let's change up the conversation. Give me another pick here that you like for Week five in the NFL.

Speaker 2

Sure, so I like the Lions team total over twenty seven and a half points, which is minus one fifteen. You can get that at a few places, but I got to get bet three six five. There are two many main reasons that I like this bet. First, I think that last week was a little bit of an

aberration for the Panthers. I think their defense definitely outperformed expectations, and Kirk Cousins and the Vikings did what they usually do, like played down to their competition, like they the only reason that they kept it that close for that long. Was really that and I you know, I actually lie bet the Vikings plus two and a half, and obviously, like I had to sweat that for all of like one millisecond because I just knew the Panthers were going

to find a way to lose that game. But the second reason I like this is that the Lions are at home and Jaredduff is a crazy home road split. I don't know if he just likes to like sleep in his own bed, or maybe he has trouble throwing outside of Ford Field, but whatever it is, since the beginning of the twenty two season, he's averaging near like forty more passing yards per game. In eleven home games,

he has twenty seven touchdowns to five interceptions. Ten road games eight touchdowns to five interceptions, So huge, huge divergence there. You know, there's minor concerned that if the Lions jump out to a really early lead, they could take their foot off the gas, but that isn't something that we

saw against the Packers for sure. So what I do think is that they will jump out to it early, probably lean on that rush game, which you know will probably hurt a lot of fantasy managers feelings because Steven Montgomery will probably end up with like thirty carries. But you know, anyway, I just think that there's no way that they don't tack on at least thirty points on this Panthers team.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I think a highly likely scenario, that's for sure. You know when Also, everybody is talking about live betting. I was talking about it on Monday, made a lot of money, the same concept as like the Denver Broncos all of a sudden went to plus five hundred. So I was like, yeah, well, I'm gonna bet them because Chicago can't get out of their own way. They can't possibly win this game. And they didn't let me down. I did sweat that one though, that one I was sweating.

Of course, they didn't kick a field goal, so I'm okay. But I want to let everybody know. Speaking of love betting. Next Thursday on our discord at fantasypros dot com slash chat, you can go join our Betting Pros channel Derek Brown and I during Thursday night football, right around a halftime, We're going to jump in there talk about some live

betting potential things. Take your questions too, So if you haven't, it's free to join fancaybors dot com slash chat, go take a look at that again, join the Betting Pros channel and when you do that Thursday night next week, we're gonna be jumping in there and talking to you guys about making me making some money while the game is going on live. Andrew Erickson, we got Thursday night

football tonight. Maybe not an excited game. Again, the aforementioned Bears are playing, so Scott bog and I will be taking everybody through that at five pm Eastern live on the channel, as we do every single Thursday. But before we get to that, let's get to another one of your picks here.

Speaker 3

What do you have going with the Falcons minus one and a half over at MGM minus one fifteen? Look, the two quarterbacks in this game could not be on different ends of the spectrum, Like it couldn't be wider.

Speaker 1

Everyone loves c J.

Speaker 3

Stroud. Everybody hates Desmon Ridder. Like if you've listened to any or any content this week, that's been the highlight. Like the headline Ridder is horrible. Stroud is Peyton manning at the Texans. They blow away with the draft. But anyway, looking at Ritter, what he does at home is very differentrom what he does on the road.

Speaker 1

Dosnety.

Speaker 3

Ritter is undefeated at home at the professional level, at the college level, never lost a football game at home. Now, the Falcons their defense underrated, not enough people are talking about because the offense being bad is kind of what's highlighting this team. But all the defensive adjustments they made during the offseason, adding guys like Klays Campbell, bringing in guy like Jesse Bates like has shown up on the field.

So they're one of the better defenses in terms of generating pressure, in terms of not allowing yards after the catch. So I think that this is a spot where I'm kind of buying the dip on the Atlanta Falcons, Like we back them a lot in the offseason, and when they played home, twenty four and a half points per game at home this year on the road six and a half points per game. So it's the stark difference between Desmond Ritter because when he plays at home, he's

not pressured. Like when he's not under pressure, he can actually operate as a normal functioning quarterback, which I expect him to do here against the Houston Texans, who don't have a pass rush as good as Jacksonville or as Detroit, so I think that he's going to be able to operate from the pocket here. I mean, look at the coaching matchup between Arthur Smith and Demico Ryans. We saw

this last year Smith. Arthur Smith had the edge. The Atlanta Falcons beat the forty nine Ers defense twenty eight to fourteen. Marcus Mariota completed all but one of his passes. So I think there's a coaching edge here with Arthur Smith's offense versus this Tamiko Ryan's defense that no one's going to talk about. So I like the Falcons a lot here because everyone loves Houston, and I'm.

Speaker 1

Surprised that it I do. I'm one of the other ones. It made a pick. This is I totally admit that that's a Conurian pick. Though I like where your head's at because it does feel like, you know, whenever the public goes one way, you should go the other way. And Ericson's bring up a really good point and this is how you make money. My problem is, I feel like Desmond Ritter is, you know, look, I know you brought up road numbers and the whole numbers, but also

the road numbers. It's also a London game in there too. That's a weird travel It's not the normal sort of situation there. I just I struggle with the fact that he can't seem to remember that Kyle Pitts is on his team, and he can't seem to remember some of the important things. And I like, I I've a desmonder apologist.

But at the same time, I'm looking at the vibe of the Houston Texans right now, and I think they've got something going on here and it would be very nfl ask for them to beat the Steelers, big triumphant victory, go on the road, and then louse to Falcons. You're one hundred percent right, so I can't wait to see the outcome of this game. You and I will be texting Sunday while you're at the wedding this weekend. So let's get to the next one here on our list. Here,

We've got a bunch of good ones here. Let's go back to you, Samantha. What do you have here for Week five?

Speaker 2

Sure, I'm gonna piggyback off of what Andrew said, but kind of go in the opposite direction. I'm a little bit more right on Joe's seniors.

Speaker 1

So uh, obviously, finally someone likes me best.

Speaker 2

So I've obviously been super high up on CJ. Strod. It goes without saying, and you know, as a sad Panthers fan like you, the sad Poplo gift just watching him the awesome. Well, Bryce Young is been struggling. I know, four weeks of the season. It's fine, it'll be okay, everything's fine, everything's fine, Everything's fine.

Speaker 1

That's what you relyd me of right now.

Speaker 2

But a cool nugget that my friend Brandon Anderson from Action Network told me earlier today is in the ten teams that a team ten times that a team has played after playing in London without a bye, the opponent of that team has gone over the team total versus a tired defense seven out of ten times, and has either tied or led going into the fourth quarter in all ten games. Small sample size, yes, but we're definitely hurt.

We've definitely heard teams complain about not having that bye week after the international travel, which totally makes sense, and it's possible that it just impacts the defenses a little bit worse. So I think that there there could be something to that with the Falcons coming off of that London game, and I've just been, like I said, really

impressed with it with the CJ. Stroud the Texans and what he's doing with what I'm going to say is pretty much a B team, which I also think might even be a compliment because they've got like five offensive linemen injured and his best receivers are Nico Collins in Tank Dell and great pickup by the way, if you

were able to get him in fantasy. I do like the Texans to potentially win out right or cover the spread, But the only reason I am going with the team total is because of what you mentioned with the home road split for Desmond Ritter. I just don't know exactly what to think of this Falcons team, so that's kind of when I go in that team total direction. So at least I know what I think I'm getting out

of one team. I'm not always sure what I'm going to get out of the Falcons, but I feel pretty confident that I'm going to get a good game out of Cjstrat and the Texans.

Speaker 1

So'm outside the box thinking I like it, let's go all right, let's get to the next one and Andrew Erickson's And remember, if you're trying to stay on top of everything here, make sure you're using the Betting Pros app. Make sure you're setting those game notifications to you with the line alerts all from VP. So if you have the VP line alerts that app, you can set your certain game notifications so you know of the line movement between now and Sunday during kickoff. It really helps you

lock in the best bets. So make sure you're utilizing all all of the tools here at Betting Pros so you can be success because we're giving them to you and they're right there. You can track all your bets. You can use the prop bet cheat sheet, which you're going to talk about a lot tomorrow too. That was a fantastic tool and it's all there for you, So don't be intimidated by this. This is fun. Wagering on

the NFL games is fun. And even if you can't wager, you can still do the NFL Contest and just make picks and still be a part of something every week. So go join the community. It's a good time, all right, Andrew ercton, you're a good time. Give me something's gonna be a good time for my wallet this week.

Speaker 3

Well, you can get this one right before in the morning, Joe, before you go on the live stream. Bill's Jags under forty and a half or forty nine over at bet MGM minus one ten. So this is the London game, the second London game in a row that the Jags are hosting. I don't think there's gonna be a lot of points scored in this game, to be honest. I like the underplay here. You look at the Bills defense, it's been great fourth until expected points add on defense

behind Baltimore, Dallas, and Cleveland. So they're playing like a top five defense. And jaguarres have struggled on offense, like we really have not seen them hit their stride like they did last year's still trying to figure things out. They're shuffling across their offensive. One they're getting Cam Robinson back this week, but still we haven't seen Trevor Lawrence

really click with his receivers since week one. I look at the Bills side of the things, I think Jacksonville can limit their ground game top ten and fewest rushing yards per game eighth and expected points added in the run defense. So I think that both defenses have like

the personnel to slow down the respective offenses. And I think that you have Jacksonville playing their second game in London at you know, at home, quote unquote, but they're adjusted to the time, like they're adjusted to the times. But Bills just got to London, so we'll see how they accliment their bodies to the time difference. And when you look at what the Bills have done on the road this year, they're two and oh toward the ender

on the road this season. With the Jaguars they're two and one towards the under at home, including last week in London. So I think that the London games you get all excited about, and they're usually not these high scoring affairs, just like for me, it's usually like much closer games like we saw it last week, where you know that game could have been lower scoring if it

wasn't for a pick six thrown by Desmond Ritter. So I'm taking me under your especially with at the totals at forty nine, Like the Jaguars haven't played a shootout at all this year, so with their often struggling I don't think the Bills offense is going to do enough necessarily to put this game over the total. I think it goes over like forty five, but goes in under forty nine.

Speaker 1

I bet this one already is this was a really big week for me for the early betting again. Follow me at bettingpros dot com slash Joe. You can follow ericson the same thing betting Pros dot com slash ericson. I bet this one at six on the Jag side for the same reason. I feel like it's a letdown for the Buffalo Bills a little bit here. The big game against Miami last week, big statement game. Then they also lost for Davius White, that's another big piece. Then

you got a travel to London. I just feel like this is the classic letdown.

Speaker 2

Now.

Speaker 1

I don't know if the Jags can win outright, that I'm not into. But I'm not alone because this numbers already been bet down because it was at six two days ago. Now it's at five in most spots. It's looking at betting Pros, So right now, the best number you can get, you know, is the five and a half. You can get that in a couple spots like on Fandel and Caesars have there at MGM's there, but also DK's already at fives, he's already starting to move in

the opposite direction. Are really interesting, So good stuff there, like that a lot. All right, Samantha, let's go back to you. One more for the people here week five. What do you have sure?

Speaker 2

I'm going with one more team total, and that's under sixteen and a half for these Steelers, So kind of piggybacking off of what Andrews said. Obviously, we think that the Ravens are the better team here, and it's not particularly close, but the so the spread would seem to make obvious sense. But I'm not as bullish because two main reasons. These teams tend to play each other pretty close.

Dating back to twenty twenty, the last six meetings have been determined by the following margins three, two, three, one, five, and four. I know there have been a lot of backups been playing in those games, but the underdog has actually covered eleven straight meetings between these two teams, So something to meant to keep in mind that they, like

I said, that they keep them pretty close. Lamar Jackson has struggled in the past, so, like I said, I'm a little bit more confident about the Steelers not doing anything instead of the raven side of things. In terms of line movement, this is actually shifted down about four points, which was all on the Steelers side. So definitely, people are very pessimistic about the Steelers, which makes sense with all the injuries. Deontay Johnson heard his hamstring won't be

back till week six or so. Pat Fryermuth will miss multiple weeks. Kenny Pickett says he will be good to go, but I mean, I don't know if that what that means. If he can't play, it's Mitch Trubisky. But it's not like Kenny Pickett is out there. Yes, we know what that means. Three interceptions last year's from him in this game, so you know that that's pretty much what I would expect from from Mitch trubisk. Even if Pickett plays, it's really not like he's he's out there blowing the doors

off of defenses. So I think he's going to struggle against the Baltimore pass rush that rings top four in sacks per game, and it's just overall they haven't been able to establish the run at all. Nahi Harris has just been absolutely terrible fantasy. And you know it's good for my betting because I've been betting his under every single week.

Speaker 1

So well, you've been winning a lot of money and you're taking us all out after the show for dinner. But sure, that's that's definitely gonna happen.

Speaker 2

But yeah, something like, yeah, I expect this to be something like seventeen to thirteen. I don't think it'll be a huge game on either side.

Speaker 1

Sounds very AFC North kind of. Yeah, that sounds about right. I guess they only grace for Patriots fans too, that like, Patriots are bad, but so of the Steelers. So I guess you're just gonna okay, nobody's going ahead of anybody in the ring race right now. Andrew Erickson, one more before you get out of here, give us your last pick here four week five.

Speaker 3

I'm going with the Colts money line here, which I think now based on where the odds have shifted. You know, when I first put this in, they were favorites, and now it looks like they're two and a half point docs. So I should able to get a higher payout on the Colts money line, you know, opening us favorites and now.

Speaker 1

On FanDuel Erickson right now, just looking at it on right now.

Speaker 3

Plus I love it because I hate this spot for the Titans because the Titans are one of these teams where they're so hot cold. It's like one week they're this, they just dominate. The next week they don't know to look like they know how to play football. So it's like you got a zig while the others are zagging with the Titans. So people are back in the Titans.

You got to back the other team. So the thing with me is looking at how they play on the road first, how they played home, and it specifically comes down to their offensive line. Like their offensive line is bad, there's no debate about that. And what happens is offensive lines don't travel well like bad old lines don't play good on the road. And we've seen that in the air two road games where they've averaged nine points per game,

first twenty seven points per game playing at home. What's the strength of the Colts defense, their defensive front, their defensive line that matches up with Hennessey's ability to run the football. And when you look at the advantage on the Colt side of things from an offensive perspective. Anthony Richardson is breaking fantasy football and the guy looks like Cam Newton out there. So I'm taking Anthony Richardson and Shane Styke in this this duo. I love this pairing.

They're gonna to take advantage of this horrible Titan secondary that you know last or this is what they've done this year fifth worst than justin net Yard's a lot to attempt and completion percentage faced. So Richardson got his team back in the game by completing eleven passes last week against the Rams forst overtime. They didn't win that game, but they came close, and they were down big in that game and they still rallied. So I like what

I'm seeing from this Colts team. You look at the last time we saw Shane Steiken play this Titan secondary last year with the Eagles. Again the different personnel, but he threw for four hundred passing yards Jalen Hurts in that game. Shane Stikeen knows how to beat this Titans defense. We saw it last year. I think he's gonna do the exact same thing with Anthony Richardson. So Colts money line, let's book it.

Speaker 1

I like Styking a lot as a coach. I think he's gonna do very well. I think he and Richardson are gonna have a very productive time together. So Erickson likes the Colts on the money line, which, by the way, now you can get a plus one eighteen over on FANDLE. That's the best line you can get for them, So jump on that, bad boy. Also, he is in on the Jags Bills under at forty nine, the Falcons minus one and a half, the Ravens minus four, and the

Patriots and Saints under. Samantha is on the Cardinals on the money line, the Patriots and Saints under, the Lions team total of twenty seven and a half, the Texans on this the over, excuse me, the over, and the Texans twenty and a half, and the under sorry Pittsburgh Stealers under sixteen and a half. Gross. That's a very low number, and I'm still under it, and I don't

think it's wrong. I don't think it's wrong. Samantha Pravidi always so great to talk to you, so happy you could make the time for us on the show today. Go follow her at Samantha nfl Over on X. Don't forget. Drop a comment below, what are your picks for the week. We want to hear from you. Drop them in the comments. Subscribe to the channel and click the bell and you can win an Odell Beckham jersey. And join our contest at Bettingpros dot com slash NFL contest for more amazing

free stuff. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for Andrew and Samantha. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. Follow us on x and TikTok at betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our

Speaker 2

YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros

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